Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction

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Overview

Conformal prediction uses calibration data to build prediction sets or intervals with coverage guarantees, while group-conditional methods seek reliability for groups such as classes, languages, or missing-data patterns. Common approaches include Mondrian calibration with separate group thresholds, hierarchical or learned subgrouping, and local or online calibration. These methods are used in settings from image classification and clinical prediction to language-model deferral and forecasting, where pooled coverage can hide failures for particular groups. A central tension is that finer-grained guarantees can require more calibration data and produce larger prediction sets, while distribution shifts can undermine group coverage.

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27 papers7 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Macro Mondrian Conformal Risk Control

    Oct 26, 2026Julien Combes, Jean-Francois Coeurjolly, Alexandre Dervill{é}Conformal Risk ControlConformal Prediction

    SVH, Michelin · Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, Grenoble, 38000, France · Manufacture Fran¸caise des Pneumatiques Michelin, Pl. des Carmes Dechaux, Clermont-Ferrand, 63000, France +2

  2. Predicted Class Correction: Conformal Thresholds for Classes with No Calibration Data

    Oct 18, 2026One Octadion, Novanto Yudistira, Yuta NakashimaConformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia · SANKEN, The University of Osaka, Osaka, Japan

  3. Tilted Mondrian: Triage and Mitigation of Fine-grained Disparities in Conformal Prediction

    Oct 17, 2026Ziang Gao, Pengqi Liu, Archer Yi Yang +3Fair Conformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    McGill University, Montreal, Canada · TD Insurance, Montreal, Canada · Layer 6 AI, Toronto, Canada

  4. Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction for Signal Temporal Logic Inference with Many Classes

    Oct 9, 2026Yixuan Wang, Danyang Li, Matthew Cleaveland +2Signal Temporal LogicMultivariate Time Series Classification

    Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA · Mechanical Engineering, Boston University · MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA 02421, USA

  5. Stochastic Grouping Conformal Prediction for Effective Subgroup Reliability

    Oct 8, 2026Meihui Zhong, Wenxin Tai, Ting Zhong +1Fair Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Electronic Science and Technology of China · Kashi Institute of Electronics and Information Industry · Intelligent Digital Media Technology, Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province

  6. SimplexUQ: An Evaluation Framework and Benchmark for Conformal Uncertainty on Simplex-Valued Predictions

    Sep 30, 2026Liang You, Hengyu Shi, Dongwen OuGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Pittsburgh · Duke University

  7. One Threshold Does Not Fit All Languages: Language-Conditional Deferral for Reliable and Efficient Low-Resource Text Classification

    Sep 29, 2026Bhanu Prakash Vangala, Vangala NavyaSelective PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    University of Missouri · Amar Bio Tech Pvt Ltd

  8. Conformal Prediction and Conditional Coverage for Tabular Foundation Models

    Sep 28, 2026Sungwoo Park, Sunghee Park, Won ChangTabular Foundation ModelsGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea

  9. Missingness-Aware Conformal Prediction Under Cross-Hospital Distribution Shift

    Sep 25, 2026Liang You, Dongwen Ou, Hengyu Shi +1Conformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    University of Pittsburgh · Duke University · Xiamen University

  10. CHOIR: heterogeneity-aware conformal prediction for crash injury severity across driver safety strata

    Sep 10, 2026Amir Rafe, Subasish DasDistribution Shift RobustnessGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Civil Engineering, Texas State University, 601 University Drive, San Marcos, 78666 TX, USA

  11. Does Marginal Coverage Guarantee Class-Conditional Safety for Zero-Shot VLMs Under Shift?

    Aug 19, 2026Jai Kumar Sharma, Amartya DuttaConformal PredictionVLM Evaluation

    Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA

  12. Conformal Calibration for Multi-Modal Regression with Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Ilia AziziGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionMultimodal Regression

    Department of Operations, HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · BegooAI, Switzerland

  13. Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Alireza MoayedikiaMissing-Modality LearningGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Business Technology and Entrepreneurship Swinburne University of Technology Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia

  14. Mitigating Class-Tail Undercoverage in Medical Vision-Language Models under Clinical Shift

    Jul 30, 2026Mushir Akhtar, M. TanveerGroup-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, India

  15. Hierarchical Group-Conditional Conformal Risk Control for Selective Prediction in Language Models

    Jul 27, 2026Murilo Salem, Luísa Böhm, Daniel Pontes +1Selective PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    CDTec (Centro de Desenvolvimento Tecnológico) Universidade Federal de Pelotas Pelotas, RS, Brasil

  16. Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting

    Jul 13, 2026Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi BrahmaRegression Prediction IntervalsGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology Jalandhar, India

  17. Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery

    Jun 28, 2026Louis Berthier, Ahmed Shokry, Maxime Moreaud +2Group-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France · Manufacture Française des Pneumatiques Michelin, Clermont-Ferrand, France

  18. Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift

    Jun 12, 2026Yanfei Zhou, Rizal Fathony, Nam H. Nguyen +1Distribution Shift RobustnessUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Data Sciences and Operations University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089 · AI Foundations, Capital One New York, NY 10017 · Department of Data Sciences and Operations Thomas Lord Department of Computer Science University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089

  19. Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee

    Jun 4, 2026Zihan Zhu, Shayan Kiyani, George Pappas +1Group-Conditional Conformal PredictionConformal Prediction

    University of Pennsylvania

  20. Parameter-Free and Group Conditional Online Conformal Prediction

    May 29, 2026Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi +1Uncertainty QuantificationGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    1Johns Hopkins University · 2Amazon Responsible AI

  21. Fair Conformal Classification via Learning Representation-Based Groups

    May 12, 2026Senrong Xu, Yanke Zhou, Yuhao Tan +5Fair Conformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    State Key Lab of Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, China · ETH Zürich · Birkbeck, University of London

  22. Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance

    May 4, 2026Ran Zou, Wanrong Zhu, Bin NanProbability CalibrationGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine

  23. Robust Conditional Conformal Prediction via Branched Normalizing Flow

    May 3, 2026Rui Xu, Xingyuan Chen, Wenxing Huang +4Distribution Shift RobustnessNormalizing Flows

    Information Hub, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · The Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University

  24. Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Improving Factuality of Generations by Large Language Models

    Apr 15, 2026Aleksandr Rubashevskii, Dzianis Piatrashyn, Preslav Nakov +1Conformal Prediction for Language ModelsConformal Prediction

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), Abu Dhabi, UAE

  25. Conditional Factuality Controlled LLMs with Generalization Certificates via Conformal Sampling

    Mar 28, 2026Kai Ye, Qingtao Pan, Shuo LiLLM ReliabilityLLM Hallucination Mitigation

    Case Western Reserve University

  26. Efficient Federated Conformal Prediction with Group-Conditional Guarantee

    Mar 15, 2026Haifeng Wen, Osvaldo Simeone, Hong XingFederated Conformal PredictionGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    1IoT Thrust, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK · Department of ECE, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HK SAR

  27. Beyond Procedure: Substantive Fairness in Conformal Prediction

    Feb 18, 2026Pengqi Liu, Zijun Yu, Mouloud Belbahri +3Algorithmic FairnessConformal Prediction

    McGill University, Montreal, Canada · TD Insurance, Montreal, Canada · UQAM, Montreal, Canada +1