Uncertainty Propagation for Echocardiography Clinical Metric Estimation via Contour Sampling

Machine learning methods provide a methodological innovation that can help screen for cardiovascular disease through noninvasive and readily available measurement modalities. Recent investments in using electrocardiogram (ECG) data to screen for structural heart disease (SHD) are one example, where ECGs provide a low-cost, available modality for screening. This has led to the EchoNext dataset, a paired ECG-echocardiogram data repository for testing new methods of SHD detection. However, relatively few studies have investigated how more probabilistic classification through Bayesian inference may improve uncertainty quantification in this setting. Moreover, few studies have considered how triage systems can be developed to alleviate healthcare bottlenecks, such as the review of data from underserved, rural clinics by expert sonographers for SHD assessment. In this study, we leverage existing ECG-echocardiogram data to compare frequentist and Bayesian neural network classifiers. We show that the Bayesian approach is comparable or better than frequentist methods in SHD classification, and that they have a more robust uncertainty quantification attached to them. We provide an example of how this uncertainty-aware classification scheme can be used for screening SHD, providing a proof-of-concept for how machine learning can help with triage in getting individuals expert sonographer input when SHD is highly likely or measurements are highly uncertain.

Reliable clinical deployment of machine learning requires models that know when they are likely to fail, particularly for subgroups underrepresented in training data. A common case is pediatric care, where models trained on adult cohorts can silently under-perform on children with no indication that something has gone wrong. As retraining with labeled pediatric data is often infeasible, detecting such failures at inference time is a critical clinical need. Building on the VIDS (Variational Inference under Distribution Shifts) framework, we introduce VIDS-Seg, which applies amortized variational inference over a lightweight prediction head to make this adaptive, OOD-aware prior tractable for dense image segmentation. We evaluate VIDS-Seg on left ventricular segmentation in echocardiography, a setting where pediatric anatomy differs systematically from the adult population most segmentation models are trained on, training on an adult cohort (EchoNet-Dynamic) and evaluating zero-shot on a pediatric cohort (EchoNet-Pediatric). Across all age strata, VIDS-Seg matches competitive baselines in segmentation accuracy while producing substantially higher spatial correspondence between predicted uncertainty and segmentation error, an advantage that persists even after applying temperature scaling to all baselines. Downstream, it yields more accurate and stable ejection fraction estimates and more reliable detection of cardiac malfunction in the infant subgroup. Our results indicate that OOD-aware uncertainty quantification can serve as a practical safety layer for deployed segmentation models, enabling detection of silent failures in underrepresented subgroups without retraining or additional labeled data.

Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is a primary marker of cardiac function. However, routine estimation from endocardial measurements requires manual delineation at end-diastole (ED) and end-systole (ES), a process that is time-consuming and subject to inter-observer variability. Reliable automation is especially valuable for point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS), where computational resources are limited and acquisition quality varies. We propose Echo-E$^3$Net, an anatomy-guided spatio-temporal network that explicitly embeds cardiac anatomy into LVEF prediction. A dual-phase Endocardial Border Detector (E$^2$CBD) uses phase-specific cross-attention to localize ED/ES endocardial landmarks and produce phase-aware landmark embeddings, while an Endocardial Feature Aggregator (E$^2$FA) fuses these embeddings with global statistical descriptors of deep feature maps to refine EF regression. Training is guided by a lightweight geometric loss that uses ED and ES endocardial landmarks to regularize EF prediction. On EchoNet-Dynamic and a PSAX subset of EchoNet-Pediatric, Echo-E$^3$Net attains competitive performance using only 1.55M parameters and 8.05 GFLOPs, an order-of-magnitude compute reduction versus recent baselines, supporting real-time deployment. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/moeinheidari7829/Echo-E3Net.