A Semantic and Occlusion-Aware GM-PHD Filter

Future 3D semantic occupancy forecasting and motion planning are central to autonomous driving, as they require models to reason about how surrounding scenes evolve and how the ego vehicle should act. Existing occupancy world models commonly discretize scenes into latent embeddings, volumetric features, or quantized tokens, and forecast future states through fixed-step autoregressive generation. This limits temporal flexibility, obscures scene evolution, accumulates errors over long horizons, and poorly matches the continuous-time dynamics of real driving scenes. We propose GEM, a Gaussian Evolution Model for non-autoregressive occupancy world modeling, where driving scenes are represented as explicit continuous 4D Gaussian primitives with learned dynamics. Instead of rolling out future occupancy states step by step, GEM directly queries the Gaussian world representation at arbitrary timestamps and splats the corresponding conditional 3D Gaussians into semantic occupancy volumes. This enables efficient forecasting over the full horizon while retaining a compact and interpretable scene representation. By decoupling spatial geometry, temporal support, and primitive motion, GEM makes the predicted world easier to inspect, as each primitive's evolution can be followed continuously over time. The same representation also supports motion planning by predicting future ego trajectories from the learned Gaussian world. Extensive experiments show that GEM achieves state-of-the-art future semantic occupancy forecasting and strong motion planning performance, while providing flexible temporal querying.

Camera-only 3D semantic occupancy prediction aims to infer voxel-wise scene semantics from multi-view images, yet remains fundamentally challenging due to depth ambiguity and occlusion. Along a single camera ray, multiple spatially separated surfaces may coexist, making occupancy inherently a multi-label existence problem rather than a single-depth estimation task. However, most existing approaches favor a single dominant depth hypothesis per ray, limiting their ability to model volumetric scenes under complex occlusion. To address this limitation, we introduce RayOcc, an occlusion-aware ray occupancy framework that reformulates ray modeling as multi-label existence prediction. Instead of predicting a categorical depth distribution, RayOcc estimates a non-normalized Gaussian mixture intensity along each ray and converts it into interval-wise occupancy probabilities via a Poisson event formulation, allowing multiple occupied hypotheses to coexist without enforcing mutual competition across depth. The predicted mixture components are interpreted as occupancy hypotheses to initialize sparse 3D Gaussian primitives, which are refined and rasterized for semantic occupancy prediction. Experiments on the nuScenes benchmark show that RayOcc achieves state-of-the-art overall IoU and mIoU among the compared Gaussian-based occupancy methods.

Precise 3D state estimation in multi-object tracking (MOT) is critical for self-driving cars, particularly for objects occluded. Motion modeling in the Kalman filter with a constant motion assumption is widely used in MOT methods, but it neglects the continuous changes in objects' motion caused by traffic in urban environments. Although recent research introduces a multimodel Kalman filter that incorporates multiple motion models, these approaches incur significant computational overhead from the simultaneous processing of multiple models. To this end, this work introduces a motion-dynamics Kalman filter (MD-KF) that overcomes the constant-motion assumption while preserving the singularity of the motion model. MD-KF models the changes in objects' motion over successive measurements as Gaussian distributions, and adaptively adjusts a weighted motion model to account for these variations. MD-KF consistently outperforms constant and multimodel KF across multiple datasets with a significant reduction in computation latency compared to multimodel approaches. The proposed approach demonstrates its superiority in trajectory estimation during occlusion and state estimation stability for stationary objects.