From Keypoints to Predictive Distributions: Post-Hoc Uncertainty for YOLO-Pose Models

Reliable uncertainty estimation for 3D object detection is critical for deploying safe autonomous systems, yet modern detectors remain poorly calibrated, especially under distribution shifts. Although post-hoc calibration methods address this issue and provide improved calibration for in-distribution tests, they fail to adapt in distribution-shifted scenarios. In this work, we address this issue and introduce a density-aware calibration method that couples post-hoc calibrators with the feature density of latent object queries from DETR-style 3D object detectors. These queries form a compact, location and class-aware feature, ideal for density estimation, allowing our approach to adjust model confidences in distribution-shift scenarios. By fitting a density estimator on these query features, our approach jointly recalibrates both classification and bounding box regression uncertainties. On both a multi-view camera and LiDAR-based detector, our approach consistently outperforms standard post-hoc methods in both in-distribution and distribution-shifted scenarios. Code available https://tillbeemelmanns.github.io/query2uncertainty/ .

Object detection is a safety-critical component of autonomous driving. It is essential to quantify the uncertainty in bounding-box predictions for safety assurance. Post hoc uncertainty quantification without retraining aligns with real-world deployment requirements; therefore, we employ the Laplace approximation. Because instance-level uncertainty is needed, linearized inference methods that require multiple backpropagations are not time-efficient, and sampling-based methods are not fully post hoc. We propose Monte-Carlo generalized linearized model (MC-GLM), which provides instance-level and approximately post hoc uncertainty quantification. The number of samples required in the Monte Carlo step is constant and independent of the number of output instances, so it can be parallelized. Experiments on the nuScenes dataset with the CenterPoint detector validate the effectiveness of our method, and the resulting uncertainties exhibit good quality.

Visual Place Recognition (VPR) is critical for autonomous navigation, yet state-of-the-art methods lack well-calibrated uncertainty estimation. Standard pipelines cannot reliably signal when a query is ambiguous or a match is likely incorrect, posing risks in safety-critical robotics. We propose KappaPlace, a principled framework for learning uncertainty-aware VPR representations. Our core contribution is a Prototype-Anchored supervision strategy that leverages latent class representatives as targets for a probabilistic objective. By modeling image descriptors as von Mises-Fisher (vMF) variables, we learn a lightweight module to predict the concentration parameter as a direct proxy for aleatoric uncertainty. While existing VPR uncertainty methods are typically restricted to a query-centric view, we derive a novel match-level formulation to quantify the reliability of specific query-reference pairs. Across five diverse benchmarks, KappaPlace reduces Expected Calibration Error (ECE@K) by up to 50% compared to existing methods while maintaining or improving retrieval recall. We provide both a joint-training variant and a post-training extension for frozen backbones. Our results demonstrate that KappaPlace provides a robust, stable, and well-calibrated signal that enables reliable decision-making within the VPR pipeline. Our code is available at: https://github.com/mayayank95/UncertaintyAwareVPR