Conflict-Predictive Variable Horizons in Multi-Drone Distributed Model Predictive Control

Autonomous drone swarms in space-constrained environments such as warehouses, inspection corridors, and urban delivery routes must share limited airspace safely at high vehicle density. Existing approaches rely on fixed safety zones sized for worst-case velocity, which wastes airspace in congested scenarios. We replace the fixed radius with an adaptive, speed-dependent safety sphere whose size scales with braking distance: tight at low speeds, expanded at high speeds. We develop both a centralized model predictive control (MPC) formulation and a distributed MPC (DMPC) in which each drone optimizes locally from detected neighbors, accommodating mixed fleets with non-cooperative agents. We prove feasibility up to the geometric packing limit evaluated at the minimum radius, establish Lyapunov stability under sufficient conditions on the adaptation parameter, drone density, and prediction horizon, and extend these guarantees to the distributed setting via a contraction condition that preserves the centralized stability margins. We further derive modified sphere-packing capacity bounds and a throughput-optimal crossing speed for narrow passages. Simulations confirm that the adaptive framework remains feasible where fixed-radius methods fail: it roughly doubles the admissible drone count, reduces traversal time through constrained passages by about 25 percent, and enables passage through openings impassable to static safety zones. The centralized variant realizes a larger fraction of the theoretical capacity, while the distributed variant offers a more realistic deployment model for mixed-fleet operations under the same safety guarantees.

Many aerial tasks involving quadrotors demand both instant reactivity and long-horizon planning for obstacle avoidance, energy efficiency, or trajectory tracking. High-fidelity models enable accurate control but are too slow for long horizons. Low-fidelity planners scale but cannot directly control the system, necessitating cascaded architectures. Prevailing hierarchical approaches plan with a simplified model and use a high-fidelity controller for tracking, yet this decomposition is inherently suboptimal. The controller is limited by the coarse plan, and conventional MPC alternatives shorten the horizon to stay real-time feasible. We present UNIQUE, an MPC architecture that replaces this hierarchical stacking with temporal cascading. The planning problem is formulated as the second-tail horizon of a single multi-phase MPC, rather than being solved separately. We align costs across horizons, derive feasibility constraints for the point-mass planning model, and introduce transition constraints that convert high-fidelity states into meaningful low-fidelity states. Parallel point-mass and mixed-integer solvers address nonconvexities while incorporating progressive 3D obstacle smoothing over the planning horizon. In simulations and real flights, under equal computational budgets, UNIQUE improves closed-loop tracking by up to 75% compared with standard MPC and hierarchical baselines. Ablations and Pareto analyses confirm performance gains across variations in horizon, constraint approximations, and smoothing schedules.

In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or drones have been increasingly adopted in urban environments for applications such as parcel delivery, infrastructure inspection, emergency response, and drone light shows. A non-negligible issue is how to manage the increasing number of drones operated by different entities, to enable them to cooperatively avoid potential collisions and determine conflict-free short-term flight paths in urban airspace. This paper presents a Prediction-Based Short-Term Decentralized Greedy (PB-STDG) guidance algorithm for a structured Drone Road System (DRS). PB-STDG extends the original STDG algorithm by introducing a prediction mechanism that enables drones to anticipate the decisions of neighboring drones using additional information shared in beacon packets, aiming to address the over-conservative behavior observed in the STDG algorithm. Several simulation scenarios are conducted to evaluate and compare the proposed algorithm with STDG. The results show that PB-STDG improves traffic efficiency while maintaining a safety level comparable to that of STDG.