Peer-Grounded Counterfactual Path Planning for Chronic Health Management

Personalized healthcare decisions require reasoning about how physiological and behavioral variables influence an individual patient over time. Existing temporal causal discovery methods are poorly matched to this setting: cohort-level models provide stable but non-personalized structures, while per-patient discovery is unreliable because individual trajectories are short, noisy, irregular, and non-stationary. This creates a fundamental gap between population-level causal modeling and the patient-specific, time-varying mechanisms needed for intervention reasoning. We introduce PerCaM-Health, a framework for learning personalized dynamic causal graphs from longitudinal health data. The framework learns a knowledge-guided population temporal graph, then conservatively adapts and evolves it using patient-specific temporal evidence and rolling-window updates, producing interpretable and auditable graph sequences. By coupling these graphs with temporal structural equations, the framework enables patient-level counterfactual queries, such as estimating short-horizon outcome changes under hypothetical behavioral interventions. Experiments on a semi-synthetic dynamic health benchmark show that PerCaM-Health improves graph recovery, dynamic edge tracking, and intervention direction accuracy compared to cohort-level, per-patient, and non-personalized temporal baselines. These results demonstrate that jointly modeling personalization and temporal evolution yields more reliable causal structure and intervention reasoning.

Healthcare is essential, expert, and episodic by design - built around the roughly one hour per year a person spends with a clinician. The 8,759 hours outside clinical settings, where eating, sleeping, movement, medication, and stress actually shape long-term health, have no comparable infrastructure. The bottleneck for personalized health is not raw data or reasoning capability; it is the absence of that infrastructure layer. This paper introduces the Personal Care Utility (PCU): a layered, event-driven architecture proposed as the missing utility for everyday health, in the way that payments, networks, and power are utilities for their domains. PCU organizes continuous personal signals into semantically meaningful life events through a Personicle, estimates dynamic health state against personal baselines, reasons about cause and context, and routes guidance through an orchestrator that separates clinical decision logic, behavioral strategy selection, and natural-language expression. This separation lets large language models support reasoning and communication while keeping safety-critical clinical decisions grounded in validated evidence. We instantiate PCU for Type 2 Diabetes - turning CGM, meal, activity, medication, sleep, stress, and clinical data into glycemic events, individualized state estimates, causal explanations, and knowledge-grounded interventions. A day-in-the-life scenario shows the same infrastructure producing real-time nudges, weekly summaries, medication check-ins, silence, or deterministic safety alerts depending on context and risk. We close with how PCU generalizes to other chronic conditions and the governance questions any always-on personal health utility must address. The result is a blueprint that treats personalization not as a final messaging layer, but as an architectural property of everyday health guidance.

Patient preference, defined as a patient's demonstrated willingness and capacity to adhere to clinical recommendations, is a primary determinant of therapeutic effect yet remains structurally absent from existing computational treatment planning models. We address this gap by presenting patient-centered factored-action hierarchical option-critic (FAHOC), a hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) framework that jointly learns high-level options corresponding to therapeutic strategies and factored intra-option policies that decompose the joint action space into disease- and intervention-specific subcomponents, while imposing a cooperation-aware action masking mechanism. This enables structured exploration, improved credit assignment across hierarchy levels, and more interpretable decision pathways, while enforcing patients' preferences. Formal guarantees establish that cooperative patients achieve higher optimal expected health outcomes than non-cooperative patients, and that the factored Q-function approximation error is provably bounded. The framework is evaluated using longitudinal data collected from approximately 50,000 comorbid hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus patients from five hospitals in the Southeast U.S. FAHOC achieves a quality-adjusted life year expectancy equivalent improvement of 0.669 (vs -0.133 observed clinician practice), correctly identifies cooperative patients in 95.9% of cases and never violates a patient's preference in held-out test, demonstrating that HRL with explicit preference constraints can support preference-consistent, clinically safe decision-making in multimorbidity management.