Search research

Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), exemplified by LightGBM, spend a dominant fraction of training time -- typically 65-70% -- constructing per-feature histograms. Existing approaches such as random feature subsampling (feature_fraction) discard features without regard for their predictive utility. We propose EMA-based Feature Screening (EMA-FS), an algorithm-level optimization that maintains an exponential moving average (EMA) of per-feature split gains across boosting iterations and, after a short warmup, restricts histogram construction to the top-K features ranked by historical gain. Unlike random subsampling, EMA-FS is informed: it retains high-gain features while screening out low-gain ones. Operating at the per-tree level, it preserves full compatibility with LightGBM's histogram subtraction trick, requiring no changes to core routines. We evaluate EMA-FS on datasets spanning financial fraud detection, advertising click-through prediction, industrial quality control, and synthetic benchmarks, with feature dimensionalities from 29 to 968. On dense, moderate-to-high-dimensional data it achieves significant speedups: 2.61x on a 500-feature synthetic benchmark and 1.45x on the 432-feature IEEE-CIS Fraud dataset at 30% retention. At 70% retention it improves AUC by 0.11 points while delivering a 1.34x speedup. On extremely sparse data (Bosch, >90% missing) it yields no speedup, as LightGBM's sparse bin optimization already bypasses empty values. We further introduce Stochastic EMA-FS (S-EMA-FS), which replaces deterministic top-K selection with gain-weighted random sampling controlled by a concentration parameter beta, unifying deterministic EMA-FS (beta -> infinity) and random subsampling (beta = 0) in one framework. Both are implemented in ~120 lines of C++ across all six LightGBM tree learners and are fully backward-compatible.

Time-to-event data is widespread across the life sciences and engineering, but it is typically encountered together with censoring, which complicates the application of standard machine learning methods. Deep Cox models have emerged as a popular method for analyzing time-to-event data because they gracefully handle censoring and can be used with unstructured data such as clinical text reports, genomic sequences, and pathology images. However, their predicted survival probabilities are often poorly calibrated, thus limiting their practical utility. In this paper, we propose a novel post hoc calibration method for Deep Cox models that uses isotonic regression to refine predicted survival probabilities without affecting discriminative power. We establish favorable theoretical guarantees, including a double-robustness property and asymptotic calibration. Experiments on synthetic and real-world clinical data demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our method.

Learning causal models from fragmented biomedical data is challenging because clinical, molecular, and imaging variables are often incomplete or not jointly observed. We propose RetiSEM, a domain-constrained structural equation modelling (SEM) framework for causal graph recovery and mediation analysis under limited multimodal resources. This proposed work organises variables into biologically informed blocks, applies forbidden-edge constraints, and decomposes pathway-level effects into TE, NDE, and NIE components. We evaluate RetiSEM across ten synthetic benchmark scenarios that vary in dimensionality, nonlinearity, causal depth, and pathway structure, together with a fragmented real-world setting that combines NHANES clinical variables with externally derived retinal representations. This approach achieves lower structural error and higher causal accuracy than unconstrained baselines across the synthetic benchmarks. In the real-data analysis, retinal variables behave mainly as downstream biomarker-like indicators, with smaller but detectable indirect effects. These findings support our strategy as an interpretable framework for testing structured causal hypotheses in limited-resource biomedical AI. The code and resources for this work are publicly available at: https://github.com/Inamullah-Colab/ReitSEM.

Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) has shown promise in causal discovery by framing it as a supervised learning problem. However, it suffers from significant out-of-distribution generalization challenges. We reveal three limitations of previous SCL practices: a significant performance gap between synthetic benchmarks and real-world data, fragility to distribution shifts, and failure in compositional generalization, collectively questioning its real-world applicability. To address this, we propose Test-Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning (TTT-SCL), a novel framework that dynamically generates training sets explicitly aligned with any specific test instance. We demonstrate the correlation between TTT-SCL and score-based methods, and design an efficient module for generating training sets based on the classic scoring function. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, pseudo-real and real-world datasets demonstrate that TTT-SCL significantly outperforms existing SCL and traditional causal discovery methods.

This paper presents the Duluth approach to SemEval-2026 Task 6 on CLARITY: Unmasking Political Question Evasions. We address Task 1 (clarity-level classification) and Task 2 (evasion-level classification), both of which involve classifying question--answer pairs from U.S.\ presidential interviews using a two-level taxonomy of response clarity. Our system is based on DeBERTa-V3-base, extended with focal loss, layer-wise learning rate decay, and boolean discourse features. To address class imbalance in the training data, we augment minority classes using synthetic examples generated by Gemini 3 and Claude Sonnet 4.5. Our best configuration achieved a Macro F1 of 0.76 on the Task 1 evaluation set, placing 8th out of 40 teams. The top-ranked system (TeleAI) achieved 0.89, while the mean score across participants was 0.70. Error analysis reveals that the dominant source of misclassification is confusion between Ambivalent and Clear Reply responses, a pattern that mirrors disagreements among human annotators. Our findings demonstrate that LLM-based data augmentation can meaningfully improve minority-class recall on nuanced political discourse tasks.

Recent advancements in scaling dataset distillation rely heavily on decoupled information extraction pipelines, comprising SQUEEZE, RECOVER, and RELABEL stages. Despite their scalability to large-scale datasets, these methods suffer from prohibitive computational overhead and poor cross-architecture generalization. In this paper, we reveal the root cause of these bottlenecks: the implicit dual-compression process, from data to model and back to images, inherently induces severe information loss. Crucially, we empirically and theoretically demonstrate that this loss creates a distribution shift that fundamentally compromises the widely adopted RELABEL strategy, transforming the pre-trained model into an unreliable labeler that yields sub-optimal labels. To overcome these critical flaws, we propose CIM, a novel, metric-driven framework that abandons the flawed dual-compression paradigm. Instead, CIM explicitly quantifies and minimizes the information gap between the original and synthetic datasets. By directly aligning the data distributions, our approach ensures high-fidelity information condensation and inherently satisfies the prerequisites for effective relabeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CIM establishes a new state-of-the-art. Notably, it distills ImageNet-1K at an IPC=10 in merely 80 minutes on a single RTX-4090 GPU, achieving an unprecedented 48.7% Top-1 accuracy on ResNet-18 and significantly outperforming previous SOTA approaches, such as NRR-DD and DELT, by 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/LINs-lab/CIM.

Deep learning-based Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) detection using Electroencephalography (EEG) is fundamentally constrained by the "small-sample dilemma." Prevailing generative data augmentation methods not only incur heavy computational overhead but also risk introducing synthetic noise, thereby blurring classification boundaries. To challenge the traditional "data quantity first" convention, we propose a novel framework "Beyond Augmentation": Score-Guided Classification (SGC). SGC does not synthesize pseudo-samples; instead, it utilizes an unsupervised generative network architecture to model the structural and statistical anomaly degrees of samples, serving as the core "Pathological Prior". This prior, after robust normalization, is explicitly fused with deep feature representations, thereby precisely guiding the classifier's decision boundary. Furthermore, to dynamically adapt to varying channel configurations, we propose a Cross-Channel Spatial Adaptation module, utilizing a spatial mapping mechanism to effectively resolve the hardware heterogeneity of mismatched channels in multi-center datasets. Extensive experiments on the Mumtaz2016 and high-density MODMA datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and exceptional generalizability of our method under the challenging "zero data augmentation" setting and at "zero sample synthesis cost". Keywords: Electroencephalography (EEG), Depression Detection, Anomaly Score, Diffusion Models, Few-Shot Learning

Data drift poses significant challenges for machine learning systems in production, requiring continuous model updates to maintain performance. We present KC-Agent, a dual-process cognitive architecture for automated ML model improvement that combines fast pattern recognition (System 1) with deliberate incremental updates (System 2). Our approach implements structured memory systems enabling System 1 to leverage successful solutions previously discovered by System 2, achieving efficient pattern-based responses without costly re-computation. KC-Agent incorporates atomic change principles and rollback capabilities to ensure reliable, verifiable updates in production environments. We evaluate our method on five datasets including real-world NASA turbofan data with authentic temporal degradation and synthetic datasets with controlled drift scenarios. KC-Agent achieves state-of-the-art performance (76.8% accuracy) while maintaining optimal efficiency (13.2s execution time), outperforming established cognitive architectures: CodeAct (+2.4%), Tree of Thoughts (+3.6%), ReAct (+8.0%), and Reflexion (+8.9%). Consensus evaluation by a panel of state-of-the-art LLMs confirms superior strategic efficacy (8.33/10 Smartness score), significantly outperforming baseline agents. The knowledge consolidation mechanism delivers 91% speedup over the slow variant while maintaining higher accuracy. Our approach demonstrates both theoretical foundations and practical viability for cognitive-inspired automated ML improvement systems capable of handling complex real-world data drift scenarios.

Organizations decide whom to treat under a budget and want to know what a targeting rule would have earned before deploying it. Off-policy evaluation promises this from logged data, but the deployable rule is a deterministic top-k policy: it removes all averaging over actions, so weak overlap hits the estimate directly. We benchmark six estimators across five datasets and two known-effect sweeps, and validate the mechanisms against a non-simulated paired reference. First, weak overlap is governed by logger-target action alignment, not by logging sharpness alone: what governs support is the logger's probability of the target's actions. Sharpening a logger built from the target's own score barely moves overlap over the tested range; action-level disagreement collapses it. Effective sample size ranks this risk across logging environments, but is weak at ranking candidates within the single log a practitioner holds, and its cut point does not transfer. Second, the optimizer's curse is not fixed by cross-fitting the outcome nuisance. When the rule is fit on the data used to evaluate it, cross-fitting the nuisance alone leaves the reuse bias in place and makes it worse. Honest policy-level splitting avoids the reuse by targeting the learning procedure's value -- a change of estimand, not a de-biasing of the full-sample policy. Third, propensity-estimation error is the largest degradation we measure: an out-of-fold estimate hurts IPS more than any other stress we apply, leaves doubly-robust estimation almost unchanged, and can invert the overlap diagnostic itself. Logging is synthesized and propensities floored at 0.02, so every failure occurs with bounded weights; the floor also reduces the two tuned hybrids to their untuned parents, leaving four practically distinct estimators, and all exact-value surfaces are synthetic or semi-synthetic. We release the benchmark; public data only.

Current Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) exhibit remarkable general capabilities but significantly underperform in spatial reasoning tasks. Existing approaches treat this gap as a knowledge deficit, relying on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to ingest labeled spatial data from external vision sources or synthetic engines. In contrast, we argue that for many tasks, spatial reasoning capabilities are already present in pre-trained LRMs but require alignment through logical coherence under geometric 2D and 3D constraints. In this work, we propose a self-supervised reinforcement learning (RL) framework that targets the internal reasoning process without requiring ground-truth annotations. By formalizing the notion of consistency verifiers -- reward functions that check for geometric and semantic consistency under transformations -- we demonstrate that models can improve their spatial reasoning abilities. We use both image transformations, like flipping, and textual transformations, like swapping the order of objects in the question, and propose a new optimal transport-based RL strategy, OT-GRPO, which is a minimal-matching variant of group relative policy optimization tailored to pairwise verifiers. We show that this label-free consistency training approaches the accuracy of models trained with ground-truth supervision and achieves similar generalization across diverse tasks and data domains.

Financial text, textbooks, and question-answer pairs are abundant, but only a small fraction is directly usable for reasoning-focused post-training. Existing QA pairs often lack explicit reasoning, sufficient context, or reliably verifiable answers, while textbooks must first be transformed into synthetic training examples. We present a data-centric pipeline that constructs complementary corpora by mining open-source reasoning traces, distilling financial instruction data, and generating knowledge-graph-guided question-answer pairs from financial educational material. After semantic deduplication, three lightweight sequence classifiers select finance-relevant examples, reject under-specified questions, and identify tasks suitable for reinforcement learning with compact rule-based verifiers. For model adaptation, we study supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, while self-distilled fine-tuning and post-training model merging are used to prevent the loss of financial capabilities already present in the starting model. We evaluate the adapted language models using FINESSE-Bench, reporting aggregate performance and changes relative to their starting checkpoints. Across the selected comparisons, ordinary SFT reduces FINESSE-Bench accuracy by 3.2-4.0 percentage points, whereas self-distilled SFT improves over the corresponding starting models by 1.0-2.8 points. Equal-weight merging recovers 3.0 points over its SFT parent and finishes 0.9 points above the original model; GRPO on hard tasks adds 0.4 points after self-distilled SFT or 3.0 points when applied directly to verifiable tasks. These results show that retention-aware adaptation can improve financial reasoning without the regressions observed after ordinary SFT.

Speech enhancement (SE) models typically rely on supervised learning with paired data examples where clean speech is synthetically degraded. This paradigm limits performance in real-world scenarios where the target environment's specific acoustic characteristics are unknown. We propose a fully unpaired SE framework that uses principled Diffusion Schrödinger Bridges (DSB) to learn a stochastic transport process between a clean and a degraded speech distribution. Algorithms for learning transport maps are computationally heavy since they require simulating differential equations during training, usually at each training step. Therefore, we propose using a high-efficiency Mamba Diffusion Model designed for end-to-end waveform processing. We compare against state-of-the-art methods for speech enhancement, both paired and unpaired, as well as a classical signal processing algorithm. Experimental results show that we are on par or better than the baselines while being orders of magnitude faster during inference. Furthermore, we show that the flexibility of the DSB formulation allows our model to generalize across SE tasks, offering a robust and efficient solution for real-world speech restoration.

Process discovery is one of the central challenges in process mining. Petri nets are particularly attractive because simple local constructs can express complex behavior, including concurrency. While their global behavior may be difficult to analyze, individual places can be efficiently characterized using monotonic properties, enabling bottom-up discovery. Unlike top-down approaches such as the Inductive Miner, which rely on predefined constructs for sequences, choices, loops, and concurrency, our approach allows such structures to emerge organically and can exploit the full expressive power of Petri nets, including free-choice constructs and long-term dependencies. The main challenge is the exponential number of candidate places and their combinations. We present the SPECpp framework which implements strategies to obtain high-quality models under time and resource constraints. SPECpp supports rapid experimentation and is used to evaluate these strategies using both synthetic and real-life event data.

We present Stockmark-Nemotron-3-Nano-Omni-JapanDocReader, a Japanese document understanding model built from Nemotron-3-Nano-Omni-30B-A3B-Reasoning-BF16. The central goal of this work is structured document parsing via capability injection and forgetting control: we inject Japanese structured document parsing capability into a reasoning-oriented multimodal model while preserving its document VQA capability as much as possible. We study parsing-centric SFT, which uses only structured document parsing data; mixed SFT, which combines structured document parsing and VQA data; and parsing-centric RL, which optimizes structured parsing with a task-level reward. Our experiments show that parsing-centric SFT substantially improves structured document parsing performance but causes measurable VQA forgetting. Mixed SFT mitigates this forgetting while preserving nearly the same structured parsing performance. Applying DAPO-based parsing-centric RL on top of the mixed SFT checkpoint further improves structured document parsing beyond the SFT ceiling, producing the final released model. The training data is constructed with a data engine consisting of two complementary synthetic streams: a Japanese Document VQA Stream and a programmatic structured document parsing stream. We also discuss reward design and variance-based prompt filtering for continuous structured document parsing rewards, highlighting their importance for making RL effective in long-reasoning structured document parsing tasks.

We introduce CameraAnything, the first unified framework for camera controlled video editing that enables joint control of both intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters. Existing approaches either rely on expensive 3D reconstruction to achieve full camera functionality or restrict editing to extrinsic parameter manipulation. Moreover, the coupled influence of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters on video appearance makes disentangled modeling particularly challenging. To address this, we adopt per-pixel Plücker ray injection alongside resolution-aware 3D RoPE in self-attention, building both camera conditioning and spatial positional encoding on the target latent to jointly control camera position, focal length, and native resolution editing without cropping or outpainting. To overcome the scarcity of paired training data, we further develop a scalable synthetic pipeline that constructs diverse dynamic scenes through structured multi-camera recording and generates synchronized videos with varied camera configurations. With a tailored orthogonal training strategy, CameraAnything enables expressive video reshooting with arbitrary viewpoint control, focal length adjustment, resolution adaptation, and multi-shot transitions within a single generation process, offering strong practical value for cinematic video editing and cross-platform content adaptation in video production.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an optimization method that sequentially proposes the next candidate explainable variables for optimizing target variables by balancing exploration and exploitation. BO is often used under a limited evaluation budget, such as hyperparameter tuning of deep learning. Despite its effectiveness, conventional BO may have poor convergence in practical experimental science where each evaluation is often costly and time-consuming. Recently, BO methods have been proposed that accelerate optimization by using pseudo-experimental data that simulate experimental data. However, when only a limited number of experimental data are available, the generated pseudo-experimental data may be of insufficient quality. In this study, we developed PolyBO to improve optimization time by generating high-quality pseudo-experimental data even when the number of trials is limited. PolyBO performs BO efficiently by generating pseudo-experimental data with an adaptively updated versatile parametric model. This low-capacity polynomial regression model is intended to enable efficient BO even with limited experimental data. PolyBO updates the BO surrogate model with a combined dataset consisting of experimental data and pseudo-experimental data and then performs optimization. Using synthetic benchmark functions with diverse landscapes, we found that PolyBO reduced the optimization time by a median of 42%. For a real-world material composition optimization problem, PolyBO reduced the optimization time by a median of 96% compared with conventional methods. Overall, PolyBO achieves efficient optimization in settings where each experiment requires a long time.

This paper addresses the problem of monocular metric depth estimation in aerial UAV imagery. Although recent data-driven methods have achieved remarkable progress in ground-level scenarios, models trained primarily on street-view and indoor datasets exhibit significant domain gaps when applied to aerial viewpoints. To tackle these challenges, we introduce AerialMetric, a benchmark dataset designed to evaluate and facilitate the adaptation of monocular metric depth estimation under UAV aerial viewpoints. The dataset consists of four complementary subsets collected from different sources, jointly covering real-world photogrammetry data, controlled aerial acquisition settings, photorealistic synthetic scenes, and in-the-wild Internet imagery. Totally, AerialMetric provides 52K real-world and 16K synthetic image-depth pairs with reliable metric ground truth. Based on this dataset, we conduct systematic evaluations of existing state-of-the-art models under aerial settings and investigate the impact of viewpoint, altitude, and camera parameters on metric depth prediction. In addition, by fine-tuning representative metric depth model on our dataset, we establish a comprehensive aerial benchmark and achieve state-of-the-art performance across diverse aerial imagery. Our dataset, code, and model weight are publicly available at https://kuieless.github.io/AerialMetric-ECCV2026-page/.

LLM-agent simulation faces a joint grounding and scaling problem: agents should act in environments that reflect real urban constraints, yet direct online LLM calls for city-scale populations are computationally prohibitive. We present GenWorld, an empirically grounded urban simulation infrastructure that combines a building-level synthetic city, a structured agent-environment interface, and offline compilation of LLM-derived decision signals into lookup policies for scalable rollout. In a reference instantiation for Higashihiroshima, Japan, GenWorld grounds 196,608 synthetic residents in census and geospatial data, validates demographic consistency against census tabulations, and uses YJMob100K mobile-phone data as a commuting-distance diagnostic. We demonstrate the infrastructure through three reproducible cases: a full-city weekday rollout, a weekday-weekend behavioral contrast, and a warning-response perturbation with auditable replanning traces. These cases support GenWorld as a reproducible platform for grounded and scalable LLM-agent studies, while calibrated forecasting for traffic, evacuation, or policy outcomes remains future work.

Distilling conditional diffusion models aims to transfer the behavior of a large teacher to a smaller student while preserving alignment across conditioning inputs. Unlike recognition tasks, knowledge distillation in conditional diffusion often struggles to transfer knowledge beyond the training distribution, since the predicted noise strongly depends on the conditioning signal. As a result, effective distillation requires exploring a large conditioning space. In practical settings, this creates a major bottleneck. Paired image-condition data may be limited, and generating synthetic images for every available condition is often computationally infeasible, while the pool of conditions, such as text prompts, can be extremely large. Recent work addresses this issue by switching conditions during training, exposing the student to a broader conditioning space without changing the distillation objective. Yet this raises a complementary question: once a large conditioning corpus is available, how should the training effort be allocated? In this work, we introduce ARIA, a framework that adaptively allocates training effort across coarse regions of the conditioning space. By maintaining online estimates of teacher-student discrepancy at the region level, ARIA focuses updates where misalignment persists while preserving the original distillation objective. Empirically, ARIA improves over RC across most architectures and settings, with the clearest gains observed in unseen and underrepresented regimes. We also provide a theoretical analysis showing that the proposed tracking mechanism follows the evolving discrepancy during training under bounded variance and drift assumptions.

AI and large language models (LLMs) have emerged as promising tools to address global mental health challenges. Despite the global nature of these challenges, there remains a critical shortage of high-quality datasets for training and evaluating such systems. To mitigate this gap, researchers increasingly generate synthetic clinical personas to simulate user data and test digital mental health support systems. However, most validated personas rely on English-centric contexts. This paper investigates whether similar persona-based methods can be used to generate multilingual mental health datasets. We modified nationality and language parameters in personas to generate clinical dialogues in Mandarin, Bengali, and Hindi. We then examined how different LLMs perform when evaluating the depression severity of these generated multilingual datasets against the baseline in English. Our findings indicate that just adding nationality and language parameters in personas might not be adequate, as it can introduce clinical inconsistency across languages. LLM judge models often exhibit inaccuracies in assessing depression severity in non-English texts, with performance varying across different models. This exposes the systemic limitations of applying English-centric personas to multilingual contexts. Ultimately, our work highlights the urgent need for culturally responsive data generation to ensure equitable mental health systems globally.

Constraint-based causal discovery relies on repeated conditional independence tests, but fast nonparametric tests often sacrifice calibration, especially when variables depend on the conditioning set through nonlinear relationships. We introduce BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation), a nonparametric conditional independence test designed to run well under a second while maintaining the accuracy needed for the thousands of queries performed by constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. BLITZ first removes broad smooth dependence on the conditioning set using low-order polynomial regression, then applies a small nonlinear feature map and residualizes those features with shallow tree regressions. The resulting statistic tests residual cross-covariance, with a moment-matched chi-square approximation to the null distribution. We show theoretically that the two-stage design reduces the effective complexity faced by the tree residualizers, allowing shallow trees to control residual conditional-mean bias while avoiding excessive overfitting. In simulations, BLITZ provides better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors while remaining among the fastest methods tested. In causal discovery experiments on synthetic graphs and flow-cytometry data, BLITZ yields more reliable endpoint orientations among retained adjacencies and competitive structural recovery. These results suggest that broad-to-local residualization is a practical route to calibrated, scalable nonparametric conditional independence testing for causal discovery.

Injecting malicious knowledge into retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems can manipulate retrieved evidence and mislead downstream generation, posing a serious security threat for AI applications. Existing RAG injection attacks mainly rely on manipulating external knowledge bases, such as crafting malicious corpus. However, the synthetic text crafted by such data-centric methods could be detectable, leading to the failure of attacks. Beyond corpus manipulation, open-source retrievers are increasingly exposing RAG systems to model-centric attacks. In this paper, we propose conflict-aware retriever editing, i.e., CAREATTACK, a model-centric retriever attack framework for malicious knowledge injection in RAG. Specifically, CAREATTACK consists two stages of conflict-aware retriever editing and attack-preserving anchor repair. Conflict-aware retriever editing adapts efficient closed-form parameter editing to the dense retrieval model, promoting malicious knowledge above benign competing passages and resolving potential parameter conflicts through graph-based conflict detection and parameter editing projection. Then, attack-preserving anchor repair performs lightweight calibration on the edited retriever to further eliminate the impact on non-target prompts while preserving the attack effectiveness for target prompts. We instantiate CAREATTACK on Qwen3-Embedding-0.6B and BGE-M3, and conduct evaluation on three benchmark datasets. Experimental results demonstrate our method substantially promote malicious passages into the retrieved knowledge of RAG systems and can perform attacks for batches of target prompts and passages, given the access of retrieval model parameters. Since most RAG systems are built upon open-source retrieval models, this work reveals a practical attack surface in RAG systems. Codes are public accessible at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CareAttack-3F1C.

We investigate whether language models internally track the value of their current trajectory, defined as the likelihood that their ongoing strategy will achieve their goals. Using synthetic, in-context reinforcement learning data, we construct a "value" axis for Qwen3-8B. We find that activations along this axis distinguish between high vs. low verbalized confidence, rollouts without and with backtracking, and correct vs. corrupted code. Steering towards high value causally suppresses self-correction and reduces explanatory verbosity, while steering towards low value induces backtracking and exploration. We demonstrate that direct preference optimization (DPO) can increase the internal value of rewarded behaviors (e.g. use a certain word), causing the model to act more confidently after exhibiting them. Finally, we apply the value axis to study in-the-wild settings. For example, we find that Qwen assigns low value to politically sensitive chat queries after post-training and that supervised fine-tuning increases internal confidence within the training domain. Our results suggest that language models linearly encode an estimate of expected goal success that modulates their confidence in pursuing a direction.

This work addresses the computational problem of generating reproducible projection-space observations from heterogeneous anatomical scenes whose components may undergo independent spatial transformations. We propose a transformation-driven framework for synthetic projection imaging from multimodal anatomical data and demonstrate it on mandibular-motion scenarios. In contrast to conventional Digitally Reconstructed Radiograph (DRR) approaches primarily designed for registration, projection realism, or rendering efficiency, the proposed formulation treats projection imaging as an observation process operating on an explicitly represented anatomical scene. Independently transformable volumetric and surface-based anatomical objects are embedded within a shared scene representation and propagated directly into projection space through explicit transformations. Projection geometry, acquisition modelling, material interpretation, and image presentation remain explicitly separated, enabling controlled exploration of methodological assumptions while preserving reproducibility and direct comparability between generated projections. Particular emphasis is placed on transformation-driven anatomical scenarios relevant to craniofacial analysis, including mandibular motion and therapeutic repositioning. Using a shared anatomical reference scene composed of CT/CBCT volumes, segmented structures, surface models, and auxiliary anatomical or therapeutic objects, the framework enables generation of directly comparable VirtualRTG projections from multiple anatomical configurations while preserving identical imaging assumptions. Rather than aiming at fully physically faithful radiographic simulation, the proposed approach provides a controllable and reproducible methodological environment for studying anatomy--projection relationships, motion observability, and transformation-aware imaging workflows.

Online inventory optimization (OIO) is online convex optimization with physical memory: inventory carryover makes the feasible action set depend on the past. A natural principle, used in stochastic inventory learning and recently in OIO under a single linear capacity constraint, is to maintain a hidden target chosen by an online learner and implement its projection onto the currently feasible order-up-to set. We prove that this simple principle is optimal for OIO on arbitrary bounded convex capacity sets. With online gradient descent as the base learner, the method improves the best known regret guarantee for OIO on general convex sets from inverse to inverse-square-root dependence on the common-demand probability, and we prove a matching lower bound. The same principle gives the first polylogarithmic regret guarantee for strongly convex losses and the first dynamic regret guarantee adapting to Euclidean path variation on general convex capacity sets. The analysis introduces a norm alignment principle: the right state variable is the distance from the hidden target to the feasible set, measured in the same norm as the projection. Under norm alignment, this distance evolves pathwise as a scalar queue, with target movement as arrival and common demand as service. This reduction to one-dimensional queue control resolves the state dependence and extends the guarantees to general convex capacity sets, beyond the reach of prior productwise approaches. Experiments on synthetic and real-world inventory data corroborate the theory.

Simultaneous 3D reconstruction and 6D object pose estimation from a single monocular image is an inherently ill-posed problem. In industrial settings, however, multiple instances of an object are often randomly arranged in bins, implicitly providing several views of the same object within a single image. We show that this implicit multi-view geometry can be exploited to simultaneously reconstruct the object in 3D and estimate the 6D pose of each visible object instance. We present MooMIns, a new Gaussian-splatting-based approach that inverts the original Gaussian splatting formulation: instead of rendering a single scene from multiple cameras, we render multiple object instances from a single camera. Our method is initialized with SAM3 instance segmentation masks and a modified Structure from Motion (SfM) pipeline. In contrast to learned monocular depth estimation, we perform true geometry-based reconstruction from image evidence, avoiding hallucinations caused by training data priors. We evaluate MooMIns on synthetic and real bin-picking scenarios, and demonstrate accurate reconstruction of previously unseen objects as well as reliable pose estimation of individual instance

User-side memory in LLMs is typically scored as a single "personalization" capability: given a user's history, is the output more user-aware? We show this aggregate metric hides opposite-direction failures. Memory factorises into at least three orthogonal axes -- behavioral consistency (style, voice), factual presence (recall facts in history), and factual absence (abstain when a fact is absent) -- and no single substrate wins all three. Comparing per-user gamma-LoRA (a small LoRA adapter trained on each user's history; gamma denotes per-user, not per-task) against BGE-large dense top-K retrieval on a controlled 50-user synthetic corpus and a real-data probe (LaMP-3), we find gamma-LoRA decisively wins behavioral style while RAG decisively wins factual absence -- and the same query-projection cells in attention layers 21-35 causally load-bear both effects in opposite directions (zeroing those LoRA weights raises absence-probe TPR by +33 pp and drops presence-probe TPR by 20 pp). On the more heavily RLHF-tuned Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct the asymmetry strengthens, not heals: parametric memory's behavioral advantage collapses while its absence-calibration deficit against retrieval widens -- an alignment tax on parametric user-memory. On real-data LaMP-3, gamma-LoRA underperforms a majority baseline; a 9-condition mitigation sweep diagnoses this as instruction-following collapse, not substrate failure (a 9x2 cross-product shows the eval-time {1..5} logit mask drives main_acc to >=0.995 on every recipe), and the best training-time fix replicates bit-identically on Llama. Finally, substrate-selection routing is question-classification, not calibration: a 110M DistilBERT on the question text alone beats every logit-based router. We contribute the diagnostic framework, the diagnosed real-data negative, the alignment-tax replication, and the routing-as-classification finding.

Multivariate time-series forecasting requires models to reason over temporal dynamics, cross-variable dependencies, and historical input-output correspondences. Recent Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) suggest that synthetic tasks can be useful for learning transferable inference behavior. However, directly transferring this paradigm to time-series forecasting remains difficult, since temporal order, dynamic lags, and recurring historical patterns are not naturally captured by ordinary tabular priors. Motivated by this observation, we propose Trio, a sample-aware time-series forecasting architecture based on Temporal-Spatial-Sample attention. Temporal attention captures within-window dynamics, spatial attention models inter-variable dependencies, and sample attention retrieves relevant historical lookback-future pairs to guide the current prediction. Rather than claiming a fully general PFN-style forecaster, our goal is to study how historical input-output examples can be explicitly organized and reused within a forecasting model. We further introduce a Time-Series Structural Causal Model (TS-SCM) generator to create structured synthetic forecasting tasks with dynamic lags, cross-variable interactions, noise, feedback, and distributional drift. Experiments on synthetic, industrial, and public benchmarks show that the proposed architecture improves forecasting performance. Exploratory zero-shot experiments further suggest that TS-SCM-generated tasks may provide useful structural priors, while fully general PFN-style time-series forecasting remains an open problem.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) learn low-dimensional latent representations of high-dimensional data. When the data lies on a manifold with non-Euclidean topology, the standard Gaussian prior introduces a topological mismatch that degrades reconstruction quality and prevents faithful representation. We present a constructive mathematical framework that resolves this mismatch for all manifolds that admit a product covering space. These are manifolds expressible as products of elementary factors (circles, intervals, or lines) or as quotients of such products by a finite symmetry group. The class includes cylinders, tori, Möbius strips, Klein bottles, and real projective spaces. Factorized distributions over the elementary factors yield product topologies with closed-form, decoupled KL divergences, so that each latent factor can be shaped independently while keeping training tractable. We catalogue reparametrizable encoder-prior pairs for periodic, bounded, and unbounded supports, and provide coordinate transformations that allow standard neural networks to output non-Euclidean parameters with smooth gradients. For quotient manifolds, the decoder receives group-invariant features of the covering-space coordinates, so that identified points produce identical outputs. Anchor constraints fix the coordinate system relative to the data or create soft topological holes. Experiments on synthetic manifolds and real-image datasets (rotated and cyclically shifted MNIST) confirm that a topology-matched prior aligns KL regularization with the data manifold. The resulting topology-aware models outperform the Gaussian baseline at all practically relevant regularization strengths. The code is available at https://github.com/JvHulst/VAE-Topology.

The Power grid is a critical infrastructure underpinning all aspects of modern society and its services. Maintaining its effectiveness requires continuous adaptations. In particular, addressing sustainability targets, demand patterns, and urbanisation trends requires implementing changes to the network. Actual developments can potentially span over a decade, with supply continuity and service quality that must be preserved throughout by ensuring conformance to several topological and combinatorial invariants. Long-term power grid planning deals with the above process, and although planning languages could be a natural choice, the kind of properties and invariants needed are cumbersome to express in such languages; on the contrary, they can be elegantly and succinctly encoded in Answer Set Programming (ASP). In this paper, we propose the first approach to automate and optimise the long-term power grid planning process using ASP. Experimental evaluations conducted on synthetic and real-world grid data confirm the expressive power of the proposed ASP-based approach and demonstrate its effectiveness.