Bayesian Inference

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

20 papers in the last four weeks, up 300% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 219

All topics

Context as Prior: Bayesian-Inspired Intent Inference for Non-Speaking Agents with a Household Cat Testbed
Apr 30, 2026Wenqian Zhang, Zehao WangBayesian Inference Intent Classification
University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA
Bayesian X-Learner: Calibrated Posterior Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Heavy-Tailed Outcomes
Apr 30, 2026Eichi UeharaRobust Regression Causal Effect Estimation
Independent researcher
Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machines
Apr 29, 2026Albert Saiapin, Kim BatselierUncertainty Quantification Bayesian Inference
1Delft Center for Systems and Control, Delft University of Technology
Teacher Forcing as Generalized Bayes: Optimization Geometry Mismatch in Switching Surrogates for Chaotic Dynamics
Apr 28, 2026Andre Herz, Daniel Durstewitz, Georgia KoppeNeural Surrogate Modeling Dynamical Systems
Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Germany · Dept. of Theoretical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health (CIMH), Mannheim, Germany · Hector Institute for AI in Psychiatry and Dept. of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, CIMH, Mannheim, Germany +1
Occam's Razor is Only as Sharp as Your ELBO
Apr 28, 2026Ethan Harvey, Michael C. HughesModel Selection Bayesian Inference
Tufts University
Adaptive Meta-Learning Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Simulation for Bayesian Updating of Structural Dynamic Models
Apr 28, 2026Xianghao Meng, James L. Beck, Yong Huang +1Markov Chain Monte Carlo Meta-Learning
Key Lab of Smart Prevention and Mitigation of Civil Engineering Disasters of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China · Key Lab of Structures Dynamic Behavior and Control of the Ministry of Education, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China · Division of Engineering and Applied Science, California Institute of Technology, CA, USA
Unstable Rankings in Bayesian Deep Learning Evaluation
Apr 25, 2026Qishi Zhan, Minxuan Hu, Guansu Wang +2Bayesian Neural Networks Statistical Power Analysis
Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Marquette University, USA · Cornell University, USA · The University of Melbourne, Australia +2
Fast Bayesian equipment condition monitoring via simulation based inference: applications to heat exchanger health
Apr 22, 2026Peter Collett, Alexander Johannes Stasik, Simone Casolo +1Simulation-Based Inference Efficient Inference
Cognite AS, Oslo, Norway · Department of Data Science, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway · Department for Mathematics and Cybernetics, SINTEF Digital, Oslo, Norway
Tokenised Flow Matching for Hierarchical Simulation Based Inference
Apr 22, 2026Giovanni Charles, Cosmo Santoni, Seth Flaxman +1Flow Matching Simulation-Based Inference
Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom · University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
On Bayesian Softmax-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Models
Apr 22, 2026Nicola Bariletto, Huy Nguyen, Nhat Ho +1Bayesian Mixture Models Bayesian Inference
The University of Texas at Austin
MoBayes: A Modular Bayesian Framework for Separating Reasoning from Language in Conversational Clinical Decision Support
Apr 21, 2026Yusuf Kesmen, Fay Elhassan, Jiayi Ma +7Selective Prediction Clinical Decision Support
LiGHT, EPFL · University of Bern · CLAN, Aarhus University
Local Inconsistency Resolution: The Interplay between Attention and Control in Probabilistic Models
Apr 18, 2026Oliver E. Richardson, Mandana Samiei, Mehran Shakerinava +4Bayesian Inference Probabilistic Graphical Models
Université de Montréal · School of Computer Science, McGill University · Institut Polytechnique de Paris +1
High-dimensional inference for the $γ$ -ray sky with differentiable programming
Apr 9, 2026Siddharth Mishra-Sharma, Tracy R. Slatyer, Yitian Sun +1Bayesian Inference High-Energy Physics
Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA · 2The NSF AI Institute for Artificial Intelligence and Fundamental Interactions · Center for Theoretical Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA +2
Time-adaptive infinite-dimensional Gaussian process regression on manifolds
Mar 22, 2026MD Ruiz-Medina, AE Madrid, A Torres-Signes +1Empirical Bayes Bayesian Inference
Deep probabilistic model synthesis enables unified modeling of whole-brain neural activity across individual subjects
Mar 15, 2026William E. Bishop, Luuk W. Hesselink, Bernhard Englitz +2Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling
Janelia Research Campus, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Ashburn, VA · Computational Neuroscience Lab, Donders Center for Neuroscience, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands · Departments of Neurobiology, Engineering Sciences and Applied Mathematics, and Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL +1
Calibrated Test-Time Guidance for Bayesian Inference
Feb 25, 2026Daniel Geyfman, Felix Draxler, Jan Groeneveld +3Bayesian Inverse Problems Bayesian Inference
Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA · Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea · Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative, Redwood City, CA, USA
Universal priors: solving empirical Bayes via Bayesian inference and pretraining
Feb 16, 2026Nick Cannella, Anzo Teh, Yanjun Han +1Synthetic Data Pretraining Empirical Bayes
Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NYU, New York City, NY · Department of EECS, MIT, Cambridge, MA · Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Center for Data Science, NYU, New York City, NY
Neural Architectures for Amortized Bayesian Inference: Statistical Foundations and Empirical Assessments
Jan 12, 2026Roy Shivam Ram Shreshtth, Arnab Hazra, Gourab MukherjeeUncertainty Quantification Amortized Inference
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, India 208016 · Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States 90089-0809
JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inference
Dec 28, 2025Niels Bracher, Lars Kühmichel, Desi R. Ivanova +3Parameter Estimation Amortized Inference
1Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, USA · 2TU Dortmund University, Germany · University of Oxford, UK.
Ideal Observer for Segmentation of Dead Leaves Images
Dec 5, 2025Swantje Mahncke, Malte Ott, Lars C. Reining +1Image Segmentation Occlusion Reasoning
Centre for Cognitive Science, Institute of Psychology, TU Darmstadt, Germany · Center for Mind, Brain and Behavior (CMBB), Universities of Marburg, Giessen, and Darmstadt, Germany · Department of Mathematics, TU Darmstadt, Germany
Flexible Gravitational-Wave Parameter Estimation with Transformers
Dec 2, 2025Annalena Kofler, Maximilian Dax, Stephen R. Green +6Transformer Inference Gravitational-Wave Astronomy
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Max-Planck-Ring 4, 72076 Tübingen, Germany · ELLIS Institute Tübingen, Maria-von-Linden-Straße 2, 72076 Tübingen, Germany · Tübingen AI Center, Maria-von-Linden-Straße 1, 72076 Tübingen, Germany +4
Graded strength of comparative illusions is explained by Bayesian inference
Nov 18, 2025Yuhan Zhang, Erxiao Wang, Cory ShainBayesian Inference Computational Psycholinguistics
Margaret Jacks1DepartmentHall, Buildingof Linguistics,460 Rm.Stanford127, Stanford,UniversityCA ,94305-2150
Estimating Orbital Parameters of Direct Imaging Exoplanet Using Neural Network
Oct 20, 2025Bo Liang, Hanlin Song, Chang Liu +9Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Inference
Center for Gravitational Wave Experiment, National Microgravity Laboratory, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China · Taiji Laboratory for Gravitational Wave Universe (Beijing/Hangzhou), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Beijing 100049, China · National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China +6
Neural Variational Cut Posteriors without Upstream Data
Oct 11, 2025Jiafang Song, Sandipan Pramanik, Abhirup DattaBayesian Inference Variational Inference
Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, USA
Robust Sparse Bayesian Learning Based on Minimum Error Entropy for Noisy High-Dimensional Brain Activity Decoding
Aug 5, 2025Yuanhao Li, Badong Chen, Wenjun Bai +2Neural Decoding Bayesian Inference
Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, RIKEN, Tokyo 103-0027, Japan · Department of Computational Brain Imaging, ATR Neural Information Analysis Laboratories, Kyoto 619-0237, Japan · Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (IAIR), Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China +1
A Morse-Bott Framework for Blind Inverse Problems: Local Recovery Guarantees and the Failure of the MAP
Aug 4, 2025Minh-Hai Nguyen, Edouard Pauwels, Pierre WeissImage Deblurring Bayesian Inference
IRIT, Toulouse University, Toulouse, France · Toulouse School of Economics, Universit´e Toulouse Capitole et IUF, Toulouse, France
Formal Bayesian Transfer Learning via the Total Risk Prior
Jul 31, 2025Nathan Wycoff, Ali Arab, Lisa O. SinghBayesian Inference Transfer Learning
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst · Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgetown University and · Department of Computer Science, Georgetown University
LLMs are Bayesian, In Expectation, Not in Realization
Jul 15, 2025Leon Chlon, Fatima Sheaib, Zein Khamis +3Bayesian Inference In-Context Learning
Hassana Labs · Harvard University
The Bayesian Approach to Continual Learning: An Overview
Jul 11, 2025Tameem AdelClass-Incremental Learning Continual Learning
NPL, Maxwell Centre, University of Cambridge, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge, CB3 OHE, United Kingdom.
Bayesian Invariance Modeling of Multi-Environment Data
Jun 27, 2025Luhuan Wu, Mingzhang Yin, Yixin Wang +2Bayesian Inference
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University. · Warrington College of Business, University of Florida. · Department of Statistics, University of Michigan. +2

Apr 30, 2026, cs.CVJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Context as Prior: Bayesian-Inspired Intent Inference for Non-Speaking Agents with a Household Cat Testbed

Wenqian Zhang, Zehao Wang

University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA

Bayesian Inference Intent Classification Animal Behavior Analysis

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Many agents in real-world environments cannot reliably communicate their goals through language, including household pets, pre-verbal infants, and other non-speaking embodied agents. In such settings, intent must be inferred from incomplete behavioral observations in context-rich environments. This creates a core ambiguity: observable behavior is often noisy or underspecified, while context provides strong prior information but can also induce brittle shortcut predictions if used naively. We present CatSignal, a Bayesian-inspired probabilistic framework for multimodal intent inference that models spatial context as a prior-like constraint and behavioral observations as evidence. Rather than treating context as an ordinary input feature, our method uses a context-gated Product-of-Experts formulation to compute posterior-like intent distributions from context, pose dynamics, and acoustic cues. We instantiate this formulation in a household cat setting as a focused proof-of-concept for intent inference in non-speaking agents. Under Leave-One-Video-Out evaluation on a multimodal domestic cat dataset, the proposed prior-guided fusion achieves the best overall accuracy of 77.72%, outperforming feature concatenation (71.83%) and stronger late-fusion baselines. More importantly, it substantially reduces context-driven shortcut failures in ambiguous cases. While simpler fusion strategies remain competitive in Macro-F1 and selective prediction, the proposed model provides the strongest overall accuracy and the best suppression of context-based shortcut collapse.

Momentum

Related topics

Latest papers 219