Causal Effect Estimation

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. The Spectral Structure of Latent Treatment Effects

    Jul 12, 2026Hamza Virk, Bijan Mazaheri, Yihren WuCausal Effect EstimationLatent Variable Models

    1Dartmouth College · 2Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard · 3Hofstra University

  2. Representation Learning for Semiparametric Causal Mediation Analysis under No Essential Heterogeneity

    Jul 12, 2026Roberto Faleh, Sofia Morelli, Holger BrandtSemiparametric InferenceParameter Estimation

    Methods Center University of Tübingen, Germany

  3. Workload-Preserving Differentially Private Synthetic Data for Causal Inference via Maximum-Entropy Calibration

    Jul 9, 2026Amir Asiaee, Kaveh AryanCausal Effect EstimationSynthetic Data Generation

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA · Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK

  4. CanniUplift: A Holistic Framework for Mitigating Seller and Incentive Cannibalization in E-commerce Uplift Modeling

    Jul 6, 2026Zuwang He, Shihao Shu, Yuli Qu +8Causal Effect EstimationE-Commerce

    Taobao & Tmall Group of Alibaba Beijing, China · Taobao & Tmall Group of Alibaba Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

  5. Geometric Causal Models

    Jul 6, 2026Eli N. Weinstein, David M. BleiCausal Effect EstimationCausal Identifiability

    Department of Chemistry, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, DK. · Departments of Statistics and Computer Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.

  6. Knowledge-Informed Local Causal Discovery of Optimal Adjustment Sets

    Jul 5, 2026Seong Woo Ahn, Alessandro Leite, José Lucas De Melo Costa +3Causal Effect EstimationCausal Discovery

    Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Sciences du Numérique, Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, CentraleSupélec, France · LITIS UR 4108, INSA Rouen Normandy, University of Rouen Normandy, France

  7. Fixed-Confidence Best-Arm Identification for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Jul 5, 2026Harsh Shrivastava, Yuta Kawakami, Junpei Komiyama +1Multi-Armed BanditsCausal Effect Estimation

    Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI), Abu Dhabi, UAE · RIKEN AIP, Tokyo, Japan

  8. Significance-First Splitting: Aligning Treatment Heterogeneity Detection with Honest Estimation

    Jul 4, 2026Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Weng Man Chiang, Karthik NageshCausal Effect EstimationConfidence Region Estimation

    TripAdvisor, UK

  9. CaSPECT: Discovering Causally Homogeneous Subgroups via Directed Spectral Clustering

    Jul 3, 2026Arghya Pratihar, Shinjon Chakraborty, Swagatam DasCausal Effect EstimationCausal Structure Learning

    1*Electronics and Communication Sciences Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, India. · 2Indian Statistical Institute, India.

  10. Denoised Conformal Alignment for Reliable Selection of Conditional Average Treatment Effect Predictions

    Jul 3, 2026Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng ZhangCausal Effect EstimationSelective Prediction

    Shanghai University of Finance and Economics · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China +2

  11. Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation

    Jun 30, 2026Jiachun Li, David Simchi-LeviCausal Effect EstimationTransformer

    Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, MIT

  12. Estimating Supply Incrementality in Two-sided Marketplaces: A Causal Machine Learning Approach

    Jun 30, 2026Yufei Wu, Daniel Schmierer, Dan ZylberglejdCausal Effect EstimationDebiased ML

    Airbnb, Inc. San Francisco, California, USA

  13. Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence

    Jun 29, 2026Andreas Koukorinis, Ricardo SilvaCausal Effect EstimationConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University College London · Department of Statistical Science University College London

  14. Lifted Causal Inference

    Jun 26, 2026Malte Luttermann, Tanya Braun, Ralf Möller +1Causal Effect EstimationEfficient Inference

    Institute for Humanities-Centered Artificial Intelligence, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany. · German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Lübeck, Germany. · Data Science Group, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.

  15. The Curse of Multiple Mediators: Hidden Interaction Effects in Activation Patching

    Jun 25, 2026Sankaran Vaidyanathan, David Arbour, Aaron Mueller +2Causal Effect EstimationCausal Attribution

    University of Massachusetts Amherst · Adobe Research · Boston University

  16. Cross-Head Attention Uplift Network with Inverse Propensity Score under Unobserved Confounding

    Jun 25, 2026Haoran Zhang, Chuanpu Li, Yuxin Fu +4Inverse Probability WeightingCausal Effect Estimation

    Center for Applied Statistics and School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China · Alibaba Group, Beijing, China

  17. Attributed, But Not Incremental: Cannibalization-Corrected Attribution for Large-Scale Advertising

    Jun 25, 2026Donghui Li, Bowen Yuan, Zili Yang +2Causal Effect EstimationOnline Advertising

    TikTok · San Jose, CA, USA · Shanghai, China +1

  18. OncoSynth: Synthetic data generation for treatment effect estimation in oncology

    Jun 24, 2026Octavia-Andreea Ciora, Julian Welzel, Dennis Frauen +6Causal Effect EstimationSynthetic Data Generation

    1LMU Munich, Munich, Germany · 2Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom +3

  19. A Survey on Federated Causal Discovery and Inference

    Jun 21, 2026Xianjie Guo, Yuwei Wang, Guodu Xiang +4Causal Effect EstimationCausal Discovery

    School of Computer Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210023, China · School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 +1

  20. Causal Gaussian Processes for Robust Treatment Effect Evaluation with Unobserved Confounding

    Jun 20, 2026Junzhe Zhang, Jingyuan Chen, Elias BareinboimCausal Effect EstimationPolicy Evaluation

    Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Syracuse University · Department of Computer Science, Columbia University

  21. Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation

    Jun 19, 2026Alexis BellotCausal Effect EstimationStructural Causal Models

    Research conducted independently. Preprint.

  22. Temporal Causal Prior-Data Fitted Networks for Panel Data with Learned Reliability Signals

    Jun 18, 2026Shravan Talupula, Saurabh SharmaCausal Foundation ModelsCausal Effect Estimation

    ProfitOps Inc.

  23. Estimating the Effect of Timing on Coupon Effectiveness

    Jun 17, 2026Deddy JobsonCausal Effect EstimationCausal Intervention

    Mercari, Inc., Japan

  24. Ensuring Trustworthy Online A/B Testing: Addressing Five Key Questions on CUPED

    Jun 17, 2026Yu Zhang, Bokui Wan, Yongli Qin +2Causal Effect EstimationA/b Testing

    ByteDance Beijing, China

  25. Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders

    Jun 16, 2026Yordan P. Raykov, Hengrui Luo, Justin D. Strait +1Causal Effect EstimationLatent Variable Models

    School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK · Department of Statistics, Rice University, USA · Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA +1

  26. Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing

    Jun 16, 2026Donghang Li, Dingyi Zhuang, Yunlin Li +5Counterfactual EvaluationCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA · Center for Computational Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA +4

  27. From Tokens to Policy: Causal and Interpretable Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Identification

    Jun 15, 2026Riccardo Cadei, Frank Otchere, Nyasha Tirivayi +3Causal Effect EstimationConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation

    ISTA · UNICEF · UCLA

  28. Causal-Privacy Audit Workflow for Synthetic and Distilled Data in Dropout Support

    Jun 14, 2026Hanghang Zheng, Xiwei Zhuang, Zhong Wang +4Privacy AuditingCausal Effect Estimation

    Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, PR China · China Development Bank, Beijing, PR China

  29. Bayesian Networks with Latent Time Embedding for Stage-Aware Causal Modeling of Alzheimer's Disease Progression

    Jun 14, 2026Nguyen Linh Dan LeCausal Effect EstimationStructural Causal Models

    Department of Biomedical Engineering The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

  30. AI for Social Good: An Investigation of the Causal Relationship Between Environmental Regulations and Their Effects on Air Pollution in London, UK

    Jun 13, 2026Yang Han, Jacqueline CK Lam, Victor OK Li +1Causal Effect EstimationPolicy Evaluation

    Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong