Causal Inference

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 62% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Data-Driven Covariate Selection for Nonparametric and Cycle-Agnostic Causal Effect Estimation

    May 7, 2026Ana Leticia Garcez Vicente, Gijs van Seeventer, Saber SalehkaleybarCausal Effect EstimationStructural Causal Models

    Leiden University Netherlands

  2. Eliciting associations between clinical variables from LLMs via comparison questions across populations

    May 7, 2026Fabian Kabus, Kian Kordtomeikel, Thomas Brox +3LLM InterpretabilityCausal Structure Learning

    Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics (IMBI), Medical Center, University of Freiburg · Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Engineering, University of Freiburg · Department of Neurology and Neurophysiology, Medical Center, University of Freiburg +1

  3. Correcting heterogeneous diagnostic bias when developing clinical prediction models using causal hidden Markov models

    May 7, 2026Jose Benitez-Aurioles, Ricardo Silva, Brian McMillan +1Counterfactual PredictionModel Calibration

    Division of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom · Department of Statistical Science, UCL, London, United Kingdom · Division of Population Health, Health Services Research & Primary Care, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

  4. TabCF: Distributional Control Function Estimation with Tabular Foundation Models

    May 7, 2026Geping Chen, Chunlin Li, Tianzhong Yang +2Causal Effect EstimationInstrumental Variable Estimation

    Iowa State University · University of Virginia · University of Minnesota +1

  5. Fourier Feature Methods for Nonlinear Causal Discovery: FFML Scoring, TRFF Scoring, and FFCI Testing in Mixed Data

    May 7, 2026Joseph D. RamseyFourier Feature EmbeddingsCausal Discovery

    Department of Philosophy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213

  6. PAIR-CI: Calibrated Conditional Independence Testing for Causal Discovery with Incomplete Data

    May 6, 2026Thomas S. Robinson, Ranjit LallIncomplete Data ImputationCausal Discovery

    Department of Methodology London School of Economics and Political Science London, UK · Department of Politics and International Relations University of OxfordMay Oxford, UK

  7. Copula-Based Endogeneity Correction for Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effect

    May 5, 2026Sahil Shikalgar, Md. Noor-E-AlamCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA

  8. Causal Software Engineering: A Vision and Roadmap

    May 4, 2026Roberto Pietrantuono, Luca Giamattei, Stefano Russo +2Software EngineeringCausal Effect Estimation

    University of Naples Federico II · Naples, Italy · Fraunhofer IESE +3

  9. The Causal Description Gap: Information-Theoretic Separations Across Pearl's Hierarchy

    May 4, 2026Seyed Morteza EmadiStructural Causal ModelsCausal Inference

    Kenan-Flagler Business School · University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  10. Distributional Causal Mediation via Conditional Generative Modeling

    May 3, 2026Jinlun Zhang, Haoneng Huang, Zishu Zhan +1Causal Effect EstimationCausal Mediation Analysis

    State Key Laboratory of Multi-organ Injury Prevention and Treatment, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China

  11. Minimum Specification Perturbation: Robustness as Distance-to-Falsification in Causal Inference

    May 2, 2026Hoang Dang, Luan Pham, Minh NguyenCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Independent Researcher · RMIT University, Australia · Florida Atlantic University, USA

  12. Advancing Edge Classification through High-Dimensional Causal Modeling of Node-Edge Interplay

    May 1, 2026Duanyu Feng, Li Ding, Hongru Liang +1Feature Interaction ModelingCausal Representation Learning

    Sichuan University

  13. A Novel Computational Framework for Causal Inference: Tree-Based Discretization with ILP-Based Matching

    Apr 30, 2026Tianyu Yang, Md. Noor-E-AlamCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA

  14. Bridge: Basis-Driven Causal Inference Marries VFMs for Domain Generalization

    Apr 29, 2026Mingbo Hong, Feng Liu, Caroline Gevaert +2Domain GeneralizationCross-Domain Generalization

    University of Twente · 2Drexel University

  15. Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time

    Apr 28, 2026Jennifer Wendland, Nicolas Freitag, Maik KschischoCausal Effect EstimationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University of Koblenz 53424 Koblenz, Germany

  16. MOCA: A Transformer-based Modular Causal Inference Framework with One-way Cross-attention and Cutting Feedback

    Apr 25, 2026Lei Wang, Debashis GhoshCausal Effect EstimationCross-Attention

    Department of Biostatistics and Informatics Colorado School of Public Health

  17. Ideological Bias in LLMs' Economic Causal Reasoning

    Apr 23, 2026Donggyu Lee, Hyeok Yun, Jungwon Kim +4Political Bias in Language ModelsLanguage Model Bias Evaluation

    Graduate School of Data Science, KAIST, Daejeon, South Korea · College of Business, KAIST, Daejeon, South Korea · School of Computing, KAIST, Daejeon, South Korea +1

  18. Dual Causal Inference: Integrating Backdoor Adjustment and Instrumental Variable Learning for Medical VQA

    Apr 22, 2026Zibo Xu, Qiang Li, Ke Lu +3Multimodal RobustnessMedical VQA

  19. Physics-Informed Causal MDPs for Sequential Constraint Repair in Engineering Simulation Pipelines

    Apr 20, 2026Chuhan QiaoMarkov Decision ProcessesReinforcement Learning

    Beijing JiaoTong University

  20. Implicit Causal Graph Construction in Text via Chain Discovery

    Apr 20, 2026Liesbeth Allein, Marie-Francine MoensCausal DiscoveryCausal Reasoning in Language Models

    Department of Computer Science, KU Leuven, Belgium · Department of Electronics and Information Systems, Ghent University, Belgium

  21. LLM-Extracted Covariates for Clinical Causal Inference: Rethinking Integration Strategies

    Apr 18, 2026Lei Liu, Jialin Chen, Kathy MacropolCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science and Mathematics Arcadia University Glenside, PA, USA · Department of Computer Science Yale University New Haven, CT, USA

  22. Generative Augmented Inference

    Apr 16, 2026Cheng Lu, Mengxin Wang, Dennis J. Zhang +1LLM-Assisted AnnotationCausal Inference

    Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, USA · Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, USA · W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, USA

  23. Improving RCT-Based Treatment Effect Estimation Under Covariate Mismatch via Calibrated Alignment

    Mar 19, 2026Amir Asiaee, Samhita PalCausal Effect EstimationCausal Representation Learning

    Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, TN 37203, USA

  24. Conditional Distributional Treatment Effects: Doubly Robust Estimation and Testing

    Mar 17, 2026Saksham Jain, Alex LuedtkeCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA · Departments of Health Care Policy and Statistics, Harvard University, USA

  25. Multi-Task Anti-Causal Learning for Reconstructing Urban Events from Residents' Reports

    Mar 12, 2026Liangkai Zhou, Susu Xu, Shuqi Zhong +1Structural Causal ModelsMulti-Task Learning

    Stony Brook University Stony Brook, New York, United States · Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland, United States

  26. RCTs for Frontier AI Governance: Methodological Challenges and Solutions for Human Uplift Studies

    Mar 11, 2026Patricia Paskov, Kevin Wei, Shen Zhou Hong +7Causal InferenceAI Governance

    RAND, Santa Monica, CA 90407, United States · Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, United States · Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States +4

  27. Fairness under Graph Uncertainty: Achieving Interventional Fairness with Partially Known Causal Graphs over Clusters of Variables

    Feb 27, 2026Yoichi ChikaharaAlgorithmic FairnessCausal Inference

    NTT Communication Science Laboratories, Kyoto, Japan

  28. CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

    Feb 24, 2026Ayush Sawarni, Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis SyrgkanisCausal Effect EstimationBenchmark Design

    Stanford University

  29. CausalFlip: A Benchmark for LLM Causal Judgment Beyond Semantic Matching

    Feb 23, 2026Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong LiLLM EvaluationCausal Reasoning in Language Models

    University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

  30. Use What You Know: Causal Foundation Models with Partial Graphs

    Feb 16, 2026Arik Reuter, Anish Dhir, Cristiana Diaconu +6Causal Foundation ModelsCausal Discovery

    University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom · Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen, Germany · Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London +5

  31. From Confounding to Learning: Dynamic Service Fee Pricing on Third-Party Platforms

    Dec 28, 2025Rui Ai, David Simchi-Levi, Feng ZhuCausal Effect EstimationInstrumental Variable Estimation

    MIT

  32. Spatial Deconfounder: Interference-Aware Deconfounding for Spatial Causal Inference

    Oct 9, 2025Ayush Khot, Miruna Oprescu, Maresa Schröder +2Causal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign · Cornell University, Cornell Tech · LMU Munich, Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) +1

  33. Semiparametric Inference for Counterfactual Regression under Intervention-Driven Shift

    Apr 3, 2025Kwangho KimDistribution Shift RobustnessSemiparametric Inference

    Department of Statistics, Korea University

  34. Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference without Networked Unconfoundedness Assumption

    Feb 27, 2025Weilin Chen, Ruichu Cai, Jie Qiao +2Causal Effect EstimationCausal Identifiability

    School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China · School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China and Peng Cheng Laboratory, Shenzhen, China · Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom

  35. SPARC: Scalable Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness via Causal Conditional Independence

    Dec 6, 2024Bowei Tian, Yexiao He, Ziyao Wang +3Debiased MLAlgorithmic Fairness

    University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA · Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA

  36. Identifiability Analysis of Linear ODE Systems with Hidden Confounders

    Oct 29, 2024Yuanyuan Wang, Biwei Huang, Wei Huang +2Parameter IdentifiabilityCausal Identifiability

    The University of Melbourne · University of California, San Diego

  37. Granger Causality in Extremes

    Jul 12, 2024Juraj Bodik, Olivier C. PascheTime-Series Causal DiscoveryCausal Inference

    Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland · Department of Statistics, UC Berkeley, California, USA · Research Institute for Statistics and Information Science, University of Geneva, Switzerland +1

  38. Causality for Tabular Data Synthesis: A High-Order Structure Causal Benchmark Framework

    Jun 12, 2024Zineb Senane, Axel Karlsson, Lele Cao +6Synthetic Benchmark GenerationCausal Inference

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology · Stockholm, Sweden · King AI Labs, Microsoft +2

  39. Multiply Robust Causal Mediation Analysis with Continuous Treatments

    May 19, 2021Yizhen Xu, AmirEmad Ghassami, Numair Sani +1Causal Effect EstimationCausal Mediation Analysis

    Division of Biostatistics, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Utah, USA · Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, USA · Department of Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University, USA

  40. Policy design in experiments with unknown interference

    Nov 16, 2020Davide Viviano, Jess RudderCausal Effect EstimationPolicy Optimization

    Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1805 Cambridge St, Cambridge, MA 02138. · Department of Economics, Oregon State University, 1500 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331.

  41. Aligning Language Models with Observational Data: Opportunities and Risks from a Causal Perspective

    Date pendingErfan LoghmaniLLM AlignmentLLM Fine-Tuning

    Foster School of Business University of Washington Seattle, WA 98195

  42. Decomposing Discrimination: Causal Mediation Analysis for AI-Driven Credit Decisions

    Date pendingDuraimurugan RajamanickamFinancial ServicesCausal Effect Estimation

    VP, Artificial Intelligence, Hudson Valley Credit Union, Poughkeepsie, NY · PhD Candidate, Causal Machine Learning, University of Arkansas at Little Rock