Causal Inference

Ask about this topic

Momentum

21 papers in the last four weeks, up 62% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28
View on map

Latest papers 222

All topics
CardsList

  1. OrthoGen: A Generative Orthogonal Learner for Time-Varying Treatments

    Oct 7, 2026Tomàs Garriga, Valentyn Melnychuk, Konstantin Hess +4Causal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Novartis · Barcelona Supercomputing Center · Universitat Polit`ecnica de Catalunya +2

  2. Symmetry-Informed Causal Partial Identification

    Oct 6, 2026Uzair Akbar, Zulfiqar Zaidi, Niki Kilbertus +2Causal InferenceCausal Effect Estimation

    Georgia Tech · TU Munich · Helmholtz Munich +2

  3. Probabilistic Counterfactual Inference for Discrete Outcomes in Gaussian-Process Causal Models

    Oct 6, 2026Juliette Sinnott, Amir-Hossein Karimi, Mohammad KohandelStructural Causal ModelsCausal Counterfactual Generation

    Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada · Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Toronto, Ontario, M5G 0C6, Canada

  4. ProximalFM: Amortized Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding

    Oct 6, 2026Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke +6Amortized InferenceConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation

    University of Oxford · Harvard University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +5

  5. Causal Memory Policy: Making Memory Utility Identifiable by Intervening on Retrieval

    Oct 1, 2026Arman Behnam, Binghui WangLLM MemoryCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago, IL

  6. Proximal Balancing for Causal Effect Estimation under Unmeasured Confounding

    Sep 30, 2026Yonghan JungCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    School of Information Sciences University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

  7. Target-Dependent Limits of Causal Repair: A Leading-Log Frontier in a Gaussian Model

    Sep 30, 2026Qinchuan Cheng, Jiaqi Liu, Ruixuan XieCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Xi’an Jiaotong University · Sichuan University · Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

  8. CIDER-FM: Foundation Models for Causal Inference from Diverse Experimental Regimes

    Sep 30, 2026Yuche Gao, Arik Reuter, Siyuan Guo +3Causal Foundation ModelsCausal Inference

    University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom · Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen, Germany · Prior Labs +3

  9. Beyond Conditional Independence: Root Cause Analysis with Deep Causal Models

    Sep 29, 2026Md Musfiqur Rahman, Kenneth Lee, Ziwei Jiang +3Structural Causal ModelsCausal Inference

    Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University · Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University · Intuit AI Research +1

  10. Small transformers track Bayesian evidence for latent common causes via a context-invariant mechanism

    Sep 28, 2026Amir Mohammadpour, Michael FrankeBayesian InferenceCausal Reasoning in Language Models

    Department of Linguistics, University of Tübingen

  11. Admissible Diffusion for Multimodal Interventional Trajectories

    Sep 28, 2026Xing Han, Shravan Chaudhari, Jiarui Shao +2Constrained Generative ModelingCausal Inference

    Johns Hopkins University · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Bayesian Health

  12. Diverse Geometries, Frozen Weights: Robust Heterogeneous Treatment-Effect Estimation via Causal Expert Ensembles

    Sep 24, 2026Ali Haghpanah Jahromi, Mohammad TaheriConditional Average Treatment Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran

  13. GeoDose-CP: Graph-Local Conformal Inference for Continuous-Treatment Earth Observation

    Sep 24, 2026Md Khalid Hasan Sakib, Dristi Datta, Manoranjan Paul +1Weighted Conformal PredictionCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Uttara University, Dhaka, Bangladesh · School of Computing, Mathematics and Engineering, Charles Sturt University, Bathurst, NSW 2795, Australia · Australian Integrated Carbon (AiCarbon), Level 4, 191 Pulteney Street, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia

  14. Beyond the Illusion of Power: Calibrating Quasi-Experiments in Observational IS

    Sep 23, 2026Spandan Ghose ChowdhuryCausal Effect EstimationStatistical Power Analysis

    Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA

  15. Beyond Overlap: Estimating the Causal Effect of Benchmark Exposure

    Sep 23, 2026Divyansh SinghCausal Effect EstimationBenchmark Design

    University of Florida

  16. Learning Risk Scores Robust to Unobserved Confounders

    Sep 22, 2026Ryan Edmonds, Yingxiao Ye, Sina Aghaei +3Inverse Probability WeightingCausal Inference

    Center for Artificial Intelligence in Society, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA · Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA · Department of Engineering, Department of Economics and Management, University of Luxembourg, L-1359 Luxembourg

  17. Causal Bayesian Optimization: Foundations, Methods, and Applications

    Sep 21, 2026Chenfeng Huang, Thuy T. Le, Zixuan Ma +1Bayesian OptimizationCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics & Data Science University of California, Los Angeles · Department of Mathematics and Statistics California State University, Long Beach · Department of Mathematics North Carolina State University

  18. F-DACE: Fuzzy Disagreement-Aware Causal Evidence Fusion for Abstention-Safe Conversational Retail Decision Support

    Sep 16, 2026Sourish DeyAI-Assisted Decision MakingCausal Inference

    Data Science and Machine Learning, Centric Software

  19. Regional Explanations via Causal Sufficiency and Necessity

    Sep 16, 2026Xuexin Chen, Peng Liang, Zijian Li +2Causal ReasoningCausal Inference

    School of Artificial Intelligence, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665, China · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · School of Computer Science and Technology, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China

  20. Information Set Emulation: Causal Certificates for AI Derived EHR Features

    Sep 15, 2026Takes Fujita, Nobutaka HattoriCausal Effect EstimationPartial Identification

    VRI · Department of Neurology, Juntendo University School of Medicine

  21. When AI Generates Covariates: Causal Typing and Estimand Drift in Sequential Experiments

    Sep 15, 2026Takes Fujita, Nobutaka HattoriCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    VRI · Department of Neurology, Juntendo University School of Medicine

  22. Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees

    Sep 15, 2026Ying Jin, Naoki EgamiConformal PredictionCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Political Science & Statistics and Data Science Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  23. Conformal Individual Treatment Effect Estimation under Networked Interference

    Sep 14, 2026Matteo Zecchin, Osvaldo SimeoneWeighted Conformal PredictionCausal Effect Estimation

    Communication Systems Department, EURECOM, Sophia Antipolis, France · Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK

  24. Generative Marketing Mix Modeling: A Causal Inference Framework Linking GEO and GEM to Business Impact

    Sep 12, 2026Masahiro Kato, Daiki Honma, Taka KatoGenerative Engine OptimizationCausal Inference

    The University of Tokyo and Mizuho-DL Financial Technology Co., Ltd. · NP-hard

  25. CausalVerify: An Execution-Grounded Benchmark for LLM Causal Inference Workflows

    Sep 7, 2026Yonghong Zhang, Ricardo Correia, Isabel M. Parra +1LLM EvaluationCausal Effect Estimation

    Department of Finance Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Madrid, Spain · Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) Madrid, Spain

  26. A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

    Sep 3, 2026Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman +7Structural Causal ModelsActual Causality

    Basis Research Institute · Sorbus AI · Massachusetts Institute of Technology +3

  27. Common-Witness Certificates and Sharp Feature Bounds for Counterfactual Image Auditing

    Sep 3, 2026Usef Faghihi, Amir SakiCounterfactual EvaluationCausal Inference

    Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Quebec, Canada

  28. Symmetries and Causality: Causal Effect Identification Beyond IID Data

    Sep 3, 2026Martin Rabel, Jakob RungeCausal IdentifiabilityCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

  29. Causal Foundation Models

    Sep 2, 2026Christopher Stith, Hossein Rahmani, Jesse C. CresswellCausal Foundation ModelsCausal Effect Estimation

    Layer 6 AI, Toronto, Canada · TD Bank Group, Toronto, Canada

  30. Exploring Sparse Autoencoders in Text-Based Causal Confounding Adjustment

    Sep 1, 2026Mian Zhong, Katherine A. Keith, Anjalie FieldCausal Effect EstimationSparse Autoencoders

    Johns Hopkins University · Williams College / Cohere · Cohere

  31. Difference-in-Differences on a Censored Rating Scale Can Manufacture an Effect: Evidence from a Pre-Registered LLM-Judge Audit

    Aug 27, 2026Shuyi Fan, Boyuan Deng, Mengyu Xu +3Causal InferenceLLM Auditing

    The University of Chicago · Johns Hopkins University · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong

  32. Intervention, Not Shared Latents: Blocking Visual Shortcuts in Audio-Video Generation

    Aug 14, 2026Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John PaisleyAudio-Video GenerationCausal Inference

    RIKEN iTHEMS · RIKEN AIP · South China University of Technology +1

  33. General Probabilities of Causation with Causal Knowledge

    Aug 12, 2026Xin Shu, Zhen Lei, Ang LiPartial IdentificationCausal Identifiability

    Department of Computer Science, Florida State University

  34. Causal inference for group-contaminated structured outcomes: observable quotients, lossless reduction and exact randomization inference

    Aug 12, 2026Usef Faghihi, Amir SakiCausal Inference

    D´epartement de math´ematiques et d’informatique Universit´e du Qu´ebec `a Trois-Rivi`eres Trois-Rivi`eres, Qu´ebec, Canada

  35. How Can Driving World Models Do Counterfactual Prediction?

    Aug 12, 2026Jiaru Zhang, Can Cui, Yi Xu +3Counterfactual EvaluationCausal Counterfactual Generation

    Purdue University · Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence

  36. Conditional Independence Tests for Constraint-Based Causal Discovery: A Survey

    Aug 11, 2026Pavel Averin, Theodoros Moysiadis, Ioannis KatakisCausal DiscoveryCausal Inference

    Department of Computer Science School of Sciences and Engineering University of Nicosia 2417, Nicosia, Cyprus

  37. Expert-Guided g-computation with Large Language Models for Estimating Causal Effects on Timings: Applications to Hospital Quality Improvement

    Aug 11, 2026Patrick Vossler, Jialin Ouyang, F. Richard Guo +5Causal Effect EstimationStructural Causal Models

    University of California, San Francisco · University of Michigan, Ann Arbor · University of Washington, Seattle

  38. From Prediction to Incrementality: Causal Optimization for Large-Scale Targeting and Recommendation

    Aug 10, 2026Changshuai Wei, John Bencina, Phuc Nguyen +2Causal Effect EstimationConstrained Optimization

    LinkedIn · Seattle, USA · Sunnyvale, USA

  39. A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning

    Aug 9, 2026Jianhan Zhang, Jitao Wang, John D. Piette +3Causal Counterfactual GenerationAlgorithmic Fairness

    University of Michigan · LSE

  40. Causal State-Space Model for Causal Inference: Estimating Longitudinal Individual Treatment Effects

    Aug 8, 2026Abisoye Abidakun, Mingjun Zhong, Georgios LeontidisCausal Effect EstimationSelective SSMs

    Department of Computing Science, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK · UiT The Arctic University of Norway

  41. Conditional Diffusion for Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression

    Aug 8, 2026Xingdong Feng, Xinhong Jiang, Yuling Jiao +2Quantile RegressionNonparametric Regression

    School of Statistics and Data Science, Institute of Data Science and Statistics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China · School of Artificial Intelligence, and Hubei Key Laboratory of Computational Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China +1

  42. Adversarial Causal Intervention Falsification

    Aug 5, 2026Mojtaba EslamiStructural Causal ModelsCausal Discovery

    University of Calgary

  43. Implementing Causal Perception: Competing SCMs and Situated Fairness

    Aug 4, 2026Jose M. ÁlvarezStructural Causal ModelsAlgorithmic Fairness

    Santander AI Lab, Madrid, Spain

  44. When Many Answers Are Valid, Voting Fails: Symbolic Verification for Best-of-K Causal Reasoning in LLMs

    Aug 4, 2026Omatharv Bharat Vaidya, Connor Thomas Jerzak, Zayne Rea Sprague +2Self-Consistency DecodingSymbolic Reasoning

    The University of Texas at Austin · New York University

  45. Causal Inference with Unstructured Outcomes

    Aug 4, 2026Kevin Christian Wibisono, Yixin WangCausal Effect EstimationCausal Identifiability

    Department of Statistics University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

  46. Robust Counterfactual Policy Optimisation via Nondeterministic Causal Models

    Aug 3, 2026Jessica Lally, Milad Kazemi, Nicola Paoletti +2Markov Decision ProcessesStructural Causal Models

    1King’s College London · 2Durham University · University College London

  47. Spatiotemporal Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding and Interference

    Aug 2, 2026Omar Faruque, Pavan Raj Ravi, Jianwu WangCausal Effect EstimationCausal Identifiability

    University of Maryland, Baltimore County

  48. Passing Coarse Marginal Checks Can Be Cheap: Persona Mixtures and Imprecise Treatment-Response Estimates in an LLM Persona Panel

    Aug 2, 2026Yohei NakajimaPrompt SensitivityLLM Evaluation

    Untapped Capital

  49. Causal Inference with Unstructured Treatments

    Aug 1, 2026Kevin Christian Wibisono, Yixin WangCausal Effect EstimationCausal Inference

    Department of Statistics University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

  50. A robust association between LLM use and scientific productivity: Assessing stopping-time selection

    Jul 31, 2026Keigo Kusumegi, Xinyu Yang, Paul Ginsparg +3AI for ScienceCausal Effect Estimation

  51. Doubly Robust Functional Representation Learning for Longitudinal Causal Inference with Irregular Histories

    Jul 30, 2026Mengfei Ran, Yifeng Shen, Ruijie GuanCausal Representation LearningCausal Inference

    Academy of Life and Natural Sciences, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China · Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

  52. Orca: Neural Operators for Causal Reasoning in Continuous Time

    Jul 30, 2026Gerrit Großmann, David A. Selby, Sebastian J. VollmerStructural Causal ModelsCausal Counterfactual Generation

    German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Kaiserslautern, Germany

  53. Same Evidence, Different Target: Decoding How Diagnostic Evidence Bears on Causal Questions from Language-Model States

    Jul 29, 2026Weiyi Kong, Zhuoran LiCausal Reasoning in Language ModelsCausal Inference

    University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada · The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

  54. Uncertainty-Guided LLM Semantic Augmentation for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation

    Jul 29, 2026Jialu Xu, Mengkun Liang, Guannan Liu +2Representation LearningCausal Representation Learning

    MIIT Key Laboratory of Data and Decision Intelligence, Beihang University Beijing, China

  55. The Confounder Trap: Treatment-Encoding Representations in Causal Inference with Text

    Jul 28, 2026Marie Neubrander, Graham Tierney, Alexander VolfovskyCausal Effect EstimationCausal Representation Learning

    Department of Statistical Science Duke University Durham, NC, 27705

  56. Causal-TS: A Python Library for Causal Discovery in High-Dimensional and Nonstationary Time Series

    Jul 27, 2026Mohammad FesangharyTime-Series Causal DiscoveryCausal Discovery

    Bloomberg LP, New York, NY, USA

  57. proxymate: Diagnosis and Adjustment of Proxy Estimates for Reliable Inference

    Jul 27, 2026Alexandra N. M. Darmon, Deeksha Sinha, Steve Wilkins-Reeves +1Causal InferenceUncertainty Calibration

    Meta

  58. Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

    Jul 27, 2026Qingxiang Liu, Anqi Liang, Heng Wang +1Domain GeneralizationCausal Inference

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Harbin Engineering University

  59. CausalSmith: A Formally Grounded, Self-Improving Agentic Framework for Automated Research in Causal Inference

    Jul 24, 2026Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis SyrgkanisAI Agents for Scientific DiscoveryAutomated Theorem Proving

  60. Interventional Score Geometry for Causal Inference

    Jul 24, 2026Mojtaba EslamiInformation GeometryStructural Causal Models

    Post-doctoral Researcher, University of Calgary.