Causal RL

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Opportunistic screening using routinely acquired clinical data offers a scalable approach for identifying high-risk individuals before acute events occur. Although chest X-rays (CXRs) capture latent cardiovascular biomarkers and clinical histories provide complementary patient context, existing medical vision-language models are primarily optimized for radiology interpretation rather than prognostic reasoning. We propose a causal reinforcement learning framework for multimodal clinical reasoning that integrates CXRs and physician-authored clinical histories for opportunistic MACE prediction. The framework introduces (1) a role-decoupled dual-LLM architecture that separates reasoning from risk prediction, (2) a dual-action causal reinforcement learning policy for evidence selection and reasoning optimization, and (3) causal token pruning to learn compact multimodal representations. Evaluated on an internal cohort, an emergency department cohort, and the external MIMIC dataset, the proposed framework consistently outperformed unimodal baselines and state-of-the-art medical vision-language models, achieving AUROCs of 0.720, 0.760, and 0.845, respectively. It also substantially improved reasoning quality, achieving higher GREEN scores and higher expert preference while maintaining robust predictive performance across diverse patient populations.

We consider reinforcement learning in environments with dynamics that undergo an irreversible phase transition governed by a hidden temporal pattern. The agent observes the base state but cannot observe the phase directly. We formalize this problem as a two-phase non-Markovian decision process and introduce Temporal-Causal Inference for Reinforcement Learning (TCIRL), a framework that jointly learns a control policy and infers the hidden temporal cause of the phase transition. TCIRL maintains a hypothesis deterministic finite automaton (DFA) to track what phase is active and refines it via counterexample-driven SAT-based synthesis. We prove that the hypothesis converges almost surely to a DFA recognizing the true cause language on all attainable label sequences, yielding an optimal policy for the original non-Markovian decision process. Experiments on a genetic therapy gridworld and a traffic signal environment show that TCIRL recovers the correct cause DFA and matches the full-information baseline in both domains.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), which learns environment dynamics to generate synthetic experience, is a promising approach to sample-efficient decision making. Numerous methods have been developed to improve dynamics prediction and policy optimization for MBRL through uncertainty estimation, model regularization, and conservative value learning. However, these methods typically treat the transition model and critic as monolithic predictors, overlooking the policy-induced data bias. Consequently, action can become entangled with environmental evolution, while uneven action coverage may distort the counterfactual value estimates used for policy improvement. To address this, we propose IADD-TR, a unified framework combining Intervention-Aware Dynamics Decoupling (IADD) and Targeted Regularization (TR). IADD factorizes transitions into an action-intervention stage and an action-free natural evolution stage, using a zero-action anchor to resolve the non-uniqueness of this two-stage factorization for robust generalization. Its latent and state-aligned components are identifiable up to an invertible within-block transformation and pointwise, respectively. For policy learning, we derive TR from the efficient influence function of a replay-state policy-gradient functional. TR augments the critic with an action-density-scaled residual correction and optimizes a targeted loss, yielding doubly robust policy-gradient estimation when either the critic or the replay action density is consistently specified. Extensive experiments on five MuJoCo tasks show that IADD-TR achieves competitive returns with improved sample efficiency.

In model-based reinforcement learning, world models exist as internal simulators, but their training often conflates statistical correlations with causal mechanisms. This problem is exacerbated in multi-agent systems where physical transitions are intertwined with strategic agent intents, causing world models to fail under distribution shift. We introduce Implicit Causal World Models to recover environmental dynamics from offline demonstrations without requiring pre-defined causal graphs. By incorporating policy variance, we render world models discoverable via the sequential backdoor condition. Evaluations across coordination tasks (Two-Door, Navigation, and Giveway) demonstrate that these models provide interpretable causal representations under both full and partial observability, with model accuracy scaling directly with interventional strength.

Traditional reinforcement learning (RL) for recovery in autonomous systems lacks causal understanding and generalizes poorly to novel failure scenarios. RL policies often stall in failure states, spending up to 70% of an episode immobilized. Rule-based recovery alone is inadequate, and adding heuristic recovery to a pretrained PPO policy worsens rewards because policies cannot coordinate well with unanticipated interventions. The issue is not missing recovery mechanisms but a lack of policies trained to collaborate with them. We introduce CRRL, a causal-guided RL framework that trains policies to work effectively with rule-based recovery. The recovery detects stalled states and assists the agent. Causal relations from driving logs shape the training signal, teaching the policy to anticipate stalls and adjust actions in recovery contexts. The framework follows MAPE-K, with sensor collection, causal model construction, and hybrid RL policy training corresponding to Monitor, Analyze, and Plan/Execute, respectively. We evaluate CRRL through a four-condition ablation study across three driving scenarios, with 20 episodes per condition. We find that causal training significantly improves reward, distance, and velocity. Moreover, 9 of 20 roundabout episodes required zero recovery intervention, confirming navigation competence. These results show that causal-guided training produces effective RL policies that cooperate with rule-based safety components.

Causal inference provides a set of principles and tools that allow one to combine data and knowledge about an environment to reason with questions of counterfactual nature, i.e., what would have happened had reality been different, even when no data of this unrealized reality is currently available. Reinforcement learning provides methods to learn a policy that optimizes a specific measure (e.g., reward, regret) when the agent is deployed in an environment and pursues an exploratory, trial-and-error approach. These two disciplines have evolved independently and with virtually no interaction between them. We note that they operate over different aspects of the same building block, counterfactual relations, which makes them umbilically connected. Based on these observations, novel learning opportunities arise when this connection is explicitly acknowledged and mathematized. To realize this potential, we note that any environment where the RL agent is deployed can be decomposed as a collection of autonomous mechanisms with different causal invariances, parsimoniously modeled as a structural causal model; any standard RL setting implicitly encodes such a model. This formalization allows us to put under a unifying treatment different modes of learning, including online, off-policy, and causal calculus learning, which appear unrelated in the literature. However, these modalities are not exhaustive: we introduce several natural and pervasive classes of learning settings that entail novel dimensions of analysis. Specifically, we introduce and discuss through causal lenses generalized policy learning, where to intervene, imitation learning, and counterfactual learning. These tasks lead to a broader view of counterfactual learning and suggest great potential for studying causal inference and reinforcement learning side by side, which we call causal reinforcement learning (CRL).

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning yields sample efficiency via latent imagination, yet remains constrained by Historical Tethering: imagination is typically initialized from observed states. This creates a learning asymmetry, where the world model's manifold discovery outpaces the policy's sparse-reward optimization. We propose Mind Dreamer (MD), a framework that instantiates Active Causal Intervention to transcend Markovian continuity. MD reformulates discovery as the minimization of a global Relay Expected Free Energy. Instead of initializing from historical data, it draws initial states from an adversarial generator $s_0 \sim p_{gen}(\cdot)$, creating non-continuous latent jumps to epistemic blind spots that are physically plausible yet cognitively challenging. We derive Relay Value Function and Relay Uncertainty Function to resolve the credit assignment paradox across these spatial ruptures. Treating synthesized anchors as interventional intermediary states, these potentials propagate pragmatic and epistemic value through Bellman-style backups. Notably, we prove that uncertainty propagation across discontinuities necessitates a quadratic discount $γ^2$, establishing a formal epistemic horizon. Theoretically, MD approximates a variance-minimizing importance sampler that expands the manifold's spectral gap, reducing the hitting time to critical bottleneck states. Empirically, MD achieves a 1.67$\times$ average speedup over DreamerV3 on DeepMind Control Suite, reaching 8.8$\times$ in sparse-reward tasks.

Many real-world tasks involve delayed effects, where the outcomes of actions emerge after varying time lags. Existing delay-aware reinforcement learning methods often rely on state augmentation, prior knowledge of delay distributions, or access to non-delayed data, limiting their generalization. Hierarchical reinforcement learning, by contrast, inherently offers advantages in handling delays due to its hierarchical structure, yet existing methods are restricted to fixed delays. To address these limitations, we propose Delay-Empowered Causal Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning (DECHRL). DECHRL explicitly models both the causal structure of state transitions and their associated stochastic delay distributions. These are then incorporated into a delay-aware empowerment objective that drives proactive exploration toward highly controllable states, thereby improving performance under temporal uncertainty. We evaluate DECHRL in modified 2D-Minecraft and MiniGrid environments featuring stochastic delays. Experimental results show that DECHRL effectively models temporal delays and significantly outperforms baselines in decision-making under temporal uncertainty.

Online reinforcement learning (RL) relies on the Markov property for guaranteed performance, but real-world applications often lack well-defined states given raw observed variables. While causal RL has attracted growing interest, existing work typically assumes Markovian states are provided and focuses on using causality to accelerate learning, leaving a fundamental gap: \emph{given a longitudinal causal graph over observed variables, how does one construct MDP states that provably satisfy the Markov property?} We address this by providing a procedure that constructs a provably minimal state representation. In deep RL, we observe that the minimal representation alone empirically fails to improve performance, indicating that neural networks cannot directly exploit Markovian minimality. To address this, we propose \textbf{MOSE} (Multi-Order State Exposure), which feeds multi-order historical state constructions into the same $Q$-function. MOSE consistently outperforms both the minimal state construction and single-window policies on common benchmarks and synthetic datasets. Including the minimal representation alongside MOSE can further improve performance. Our results establish a core principle for causal deep RL: minimal sufficiency is not enough, and \emph{controlled redundancy} is necessary to unlock the benefit of causal state information.

Causal reinforcement learning (RL) lacks benchmarks for complex systems that combine sequential decision making, hidden information, large masked action spaces, and explicit causal structure. We introduce MTG-Causal-RL, a Gymnasium benchmark built on Magic: The Gathering with a 3,077-dimensional partial observation, a 478-action masked discrete action space, five competitive Standard archetypes, three reward schemes, and a hand-specified Structural Causal Model (SCM) over strategic variables. Every episode exposes causal variables, SCM-predicted intervention effects, and per-factor credit traces, making causal credit assignment, leave-one-out cross-archetype transfer, and policy auditability first-class metrics. We adapt a panel of reference baselines: random, heuristic, masked PPO, a causal-world-model PPO variant, and an architecture-matched scalar control. We propose Causal Graph-Factored Advantage PPO (CGFA-PPO) as a reference causal agent that uses SCM parents of win probability as factor-aligned critic targets with an intervention-calibration loss. All comparisons use paired seeds, paired-bootstrap confidence intervals, and Holm-Bonferroni correction within pre-registered families. Masked PPO and CGFA-PPO reach competitive in-distribution win rates and exceed the random baseline; per-factor calibration trajectories and leave-one-out transfer gaps expose diagnostic structure that scalar win rate alone cannot. We release the benchmark, reference-baseline results, and full evaluation protocol openly. By coupling a strategically rich, partially observed domain with an explicit causal interface and statistical protocol, MTG-Causal-RL gives causal-RL, world-model, and LLM-agent research a shared testbed for questions current benchmarks cannot pose together: causal credit assignment under masked action spaces, structural transfer across archetypes, and SCM-grounded policy auditability.

A key challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) lies in designing learning signals that effectively promote coordination among agents. Designing such signals requires estimating how one agent's current action affects its teammates over future interaction steps. To address this, we introduce Multi-step Advantage-Gated Interventional Causal MARL (MAGIC), a framework that estimates multi-step action effects between agents and selectively converts them into intrinsic rewards. MAGIC uses counterfactual action interventions to compare teammate futures under factual and counterfactual branches, and introduces a gate based on advantage to direct exploration toward beneficial behaviors aligned with the task goal. Experiments on Multi-Agent Particle Environments (MPE) and StarCraft micromanagement benchmarks (SMAC and SMACv2) show that MAGIC consistently outperforms leading prior methods, with average relative final performance improvements of 26.9% and 10.1%, respectively.

We study a class of reinforcement learning (RL) tasks where the objective of the agent is to accomplish temporally extended goals. In this setting, a common approach is to represent the tasks as deterministic finite automata (DFA) and integrate them into the state-space for RL algorithms. However, while these machines model the reward function, they often overlook the causal knowledge about the environment. To address this limitation, we propose the Temporal-Logic-based Causal Diagram (TL-CD) in RL, which captures the temporal causal relationships between different properties of the environment. We exploit the TL-CD to devise an RL algorithm in which an agent requires significantly less exploration of the environment. To this end, based on a TL-CD and a task DFA, we identify configurations where the agent can determine the expected rewards early during an exploration. Through a series of case studies, we demonstrate the benefits of using TL-CDs, particularly the faster convergence of the algorithm to an optimal policy due to reduced exploration of the environment.