Change-Point Detection

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Overview

Change-point detection studies when and where a time series, data stream, or evolving system shifts between regimes, helping people respond to failures, drift, or changing conditions. Offline methods segment data using dynamic programming and penalized costs, while online methods such as CUSUM, EWMA, and martingale tests trade detection speed against false alarms; Bayesian, kernel, graph-based, and neural approaches handle richer data. Work spans settings from multivariate monitoring and dynamic networks to deployed machine-learning models, with growing attention to confidence sets, attribution, and early-warning evaluation. A central challenge is maintaining reliable guarantees under dependence, adaptation, and unknown shifts without making detection too slow or too prone to alarms.

Latest papers

CardsList

83 papers12 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. ARC: Augmented-Rank Conformalization for Changepoint Localization --- Finite-Sample Validity and Distribution-Robust Efficiency

    Aug 9, 2026Chenchen Peng, Mixia Wu, Qijing Yan +2Confidence Region EstimationConformal Prediction

    School of Mathematics, Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore

  2. TRACE: A Multi-Layer Benchmark for Human AI Controller Coordination Under Drift and Failure

    Aug 7, 2026Joshua Zuniga, Srinivasan Subramanian, Ramya Madhuri Narapureddy +1Agent Failure AnalysisAI Agent Benchmarks

    College of Computing and Software Engineering Kennesaw State University Marietta, GA, USA

  3. ARM: Detector-Agnostic Changepoint Attribution with Finite-Sample Error Control

    Aug 3, 2026Chenchen Peng, Mixia Wu, Qijing Yan +2Change-Point DetectionMultiple Hypothesis Testing

    School of Mathematics, Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore · College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610065, China

  4. BayesSeg: A Bayesian Optimization Framework for State Segmentation of Electricity Consumption Time Series

    Aug 1, 2026Zhenya Zhang, Wendi Zhu, Ping Wang +2Non-Intrusive Load MonitoringChange-Point Detection

    Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Intelligent Building & Building Energy Saving, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230022, China · School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230022, China · School of Economics and Management, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230022, China +1

  5. Conformal Changepoint Localization and Root Cause Analysis with Corrupted Observations

    Jul 29, 2026Seunghun Yu, Meiyi Zhu, Petar Popovski +2Conformal PredictionChange-Point Detection

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon 34141, South Korea · Department of Engineering, King’s College London, WC2R 2LS, London, U.K. · Department of Electronic Systems, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark +2

  6. Real-Time Detection of Charge Jumps in Superconducting Qubits with a Convolutional Neural Network

    Jul 15, 2026Daniel Gaytan-Villarreal, Peter Meiring, Daniel Baxter +6Change-Point Detection

    Department of Physics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Quantum Division, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL 60510, USA · Department of Physics & Astronomy, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA +1

  7. Calibrated e-CUSUM Decoding for Quantized Reasoning Models: Why Token Log-Probability Is the Wrong Observable for Decoding Monitors

    Jul 13, 2026El Hassane Ettifouri, Ayoub Belfatmi, Mahaman Sanoussi Yahaya Alassan +1Language Model DecodingChange-Point Detection

    Novelis Research, Paris, France

  8. Weighted Score-Oriented Losses for Temporally Localized Event Prediction

    Jun 22, 2026Edoardo Legnaro, Sabrina Guastavino, Francesco MarchettiChange-Point DetectionTime-Series Anomaly Detection

    Department of Mathematics, University of Genoa Via Dodecaneso 35, 16146 Genoa, Italy · Department of Mathematics “Tullio Levi-Civita”, University of Padua Via Trieste 63, 35121 Padua, Italy

  9. Cluster-Specific Localized Drift Detection for Efficient Batch Model Adaptation under Controlled Distribution Shift

    Jun 20, 2026Ignacio Cabrera Martin, Marcello Trovati, Almas Baimagambetov +1Distribution Shift RobustnessConcept Drift

    University of Brighton, School of Architecture, Technology and Engineering, Brighton, BN2 4GJ, United Kingdom · University of Lancashire, School of Business, Preston, PR1 2HE, United Kingdom

  10. Distinguishing indistinguishable attractors: Unsupervised anomaly detection with reservoir computers

    Jun 19, 2026Davide Prosperino, Haochun Ma, Christoph RäthOnline Anomaly DetectionReservoir Computing

    1Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Faculty of Physics, Munich, 80539, Germany · 2Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institute for Frontier Materials on Earth and in Space, Cologne, 51170, Germany

  11. Betting on Moments: Legendre Jumper Martingales for Online Exchangeability Testing

    Jun 18, 2026Johan Hallberg SzabadváryConformal PredictionDistribution Shift Detection

    Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University

  12. SpatioTemporal Causal Network Diagnostics for Geographic Tipping Point Early Warning

    Jun 16, 2026Zhaoyuan Yu, Zhangyong LiangChange-Point DetectionDynamic Mode Decomposition

    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China · National Center for Applied Mathematics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

  13. Bistable by Construction: Wall-Clock-Calibrated State Monitors Have No Moment-Detection Regime at Agent Cadence

    Jun 15, 2026Manvendra ModgilAgent ReliabilityAI Agent Monitoring

    Modint Intelligence

  14. Who Drifted: the System or the Judge? Anytime-Valid Attribution in LLM Evaluation Pipelines

    Jun 13, 2026Yitao LiLLM EvaluationLLM-as-a-Judge

  15. Detecting Historical Turning Points in Italian Media: A Complex Systems Approach to a Diachronic News Corpus

    Jun 12, 2026Dario Zarcone, Salvatore Miccichè, David SanchezHistorical Document AnalysisComputational Social Science

    Department of Physics and Chemistry, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy · Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems (IFISC), UIB-CSIC, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

  16. TEDD: Robust Detection of Unstable Temporal Features

    Jun 10, 2026Ricardo Ribeiro Pereira, Bruno Casal Laraña, Nádia Soares +1Distribution Shift RobustnessDistribution Shift Detection

    DCC/FCUP University of Porto Porto, Portugal · Feedzai Porto, Portugal · Mindera Porto, Portugal

  17. Online Shift Detection and Conformal Adaptation for Deployed Safety Classifiers

    Jun 10, 2026Jun Wen LeongDistribution ShiftConformal Prediction

  18. Seeing Below the Limit of Detection: A Censored-Poisson Bayesian Latent-Growth Change-Point Detector (the Span Detector) for Serial ctDNA in HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer

    Jun 10, 2026Aarchi Singh Thakur, Abhijoy SarkarBreast CancerOncology

    Span AI

  19. Quickest Detection of Hallucination Onset: Delay Bounds and Learned CUSUM Statistics

    Jun 10, 2026Igor ItkinChange-Point Detection

    Independent Researcher

  20. LSTM-Based Detection of Structural Breaks in Property Insurance Loss Reserving: A Climate-Informed Approach

    Jun 9, 2026Thomas Mbrice, Shashwat PanigrahiRecurrent Neural NetworksChange-Point Detection

    Stony Brook University · Department of Computer Science

  21. Unified Geometry-Guided ML-FTLE for Tracking Transient Chaos from Scalar Time Series

    Jun 5, 2026S. V. Manivelan, Andrei Velichko, I. ManimehanDynamical SystemsChaotic Dynamical Systems

    Department of Physics, M. R. Government Arts College (Affiliated to Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli), Mannargudi, 614 001, Tamilnadu, India. · Institute of Physics and Technology, Petrozavodsk State University, Petrozavodsk, 185910, Russia.

  22. Geodesics of Dynamic Graphs for Regime Change Detection

    Jun 5, 2026William Cappelletti, Étienne Voutaz, Pascal FrossardDynamic Graph LearningChange-Point Detection

    LTS4, EPFL, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland · Cyber-Defence Campus, Armasuisse, 3604 Thun, Switzerland

  23. Empirical Transfer Operators and Finite-Sample Change Detection for Noisy Expanding Interval Maps

    Jun 5, 2026Aparna RajputDynamical SystemsDistribution Shift Detection

  24. Distribution-free changepoint localization after sequential change detection

    May 31, 2026Aytijhya Saha, Aaditya RamdasConfidence Region EstimationDistribution Shift Detection

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Carnegie Mellon University

  25. CUNY at CLPsych 2026: A Pipeline Approach to Classification and Summarization of Mental Health Changes

    May 22, 2026Amirmohammad Ziaei Bideh, Shameed Charlomar Job, Ava Yahyapour +1Mental HealthText Summarization

    Computer Science Department, CUNY Graduate Center · Linguistics Department, CUNY Graduate Center

  26. DreamerNLplus: Interpretable Modeling of Mental Health Dynamics from Social Media Timelines using Hybrid Rule-Based and RAG Methods

    May 21, 2026Maryia Zhyrko, Daisy Monika Lal, Erik van Mulligen +1Social Media AnalysisMental Health

    Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS), Leiden University, NL · School of Computing and Communications (SCC), Lancaster University, UK · Department of Medical Informatics, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam, NL +1

  27. Detecting Fluent Optimization-Based Adversarial Prompts via Sequential Entropy Changes

    May 19, 2026Mohammed Alshaalan, Miguel R. D. RodriguesAdversarial Attacks on LLMsJailbreak Detection

    Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

  28. Enhancing Regime Shift Detection Using Unstructured Data: A Study on the Treasury Market

    May 17, 2026Mingxuan Yi, Vidal Mehra, Jing Chen +1Change-Point DetectionFinancial Time Series

    School of Engineering Mathematics and Technology, University of Bristol, UK · Propellant Digital B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands · School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, UK

  29. Conditional Entropy of Heat Diffusion on Temporal Networks

    May 15, 2026Samuel Koovely, Alexandre BovetChange-Point DetectionGraph Diffusion

    Department of Mathematical Modeling and Machine Learning University of Zurich Zurich, Switzerland

  30. Explainable Detection of Depression Status Shifts from User Digital Traces

    May 14, 2026Loris Belcastro, Francesco Gervino, Fabrizio Marozzo +2Social Media AnalysisDepression Detection

    DIMES, University of Calabria, Ponte P. Bucci 41/C, 87036 Rende, Italy