Chaotic Time-Series Prediction

Accurately simulating chaotic quantum many-body dynamics remains a major computational challenge for classical methods, due to the rapid buildup and spatial spreading of entanglement during the evolution. This raises the question of whether machine learning can provide an effective alternative for predicting quantum dynamics. We address this question by formulating quantum dynamics as a time-series forecasting problem, using a few-qubit PXP chain, realizable with Rydberg-atom arrays, as a benchmark. By varying the initial state, the system spans dynamical regimes ranging from ergodic behavior to quantum many-body scarring, providing a controlled setting for testing forecasting models across qualitatively different dynamics. We compare two contrasting architectures: an expressive nonlinear Transformer and DLinear, a simple linear forecasting model. The Transformer accurately predicts dynamics in the more ergodic regime, but its performance progressively deteriorates as the initial state approaches the scarred limit. In contrast, DLinear remains accurate across the entire family of initial states, with its main deviations consisting of small high-frequency oscillations that have little effect on the overall prediction error. Remarkably, these results show that observables generated by complex quantum many-body dynamics can be forecast with high accuracy through a simple linear mapping from past to future observations. This reveals that the complexity of the underlying quantum evolution need not translate into an equally complex forecasting problem.

Autoregressive models are trained to predict a system's behavior one step at a time, and recursive generation allows the learned dynamics to unfold over long horizons. To what extent can such dynamics learned from local observations recover broader organization of an underlying system that was only partially observed during training? Here we study small autoregressive transformers trained from scratch on trajectories sampled from restricted parameter regimes of several non-linear dynamical systems, including logistic and sine maps, the Lorenz system, and the generalized Hopf system, with control parameters and state trajectories represented as sequences of continuous tokens. Under closed-loop evaluation at parameters far outside the training distribution, the models can recover self-similar period-doubling cascades, chaotic dynamics, and attractor structures with remarkable visual and numerical fidelity. For the logistic map, a transformer reproduces successive period doublings up to period 128, yielding a finite-order scaling ratio of 4.6687, matching the Feigenbaum constant to within $5\times10^{-4}$. We further investigate how these structures emerge over the course of training, and reveal with causal interventions how control-parameter information is processed through attention into state prediction and shapes the resulting closed-loop dynamics. These results suggest that a surprisingly narrow window into a system's local behavior may suffice for autoregressive transformers to generalize to its unseen global dynamical organization.

Time series prediction is a common application of reservoir computing. When the training and testing time series data contains multiple dynamical regimes, because an underlying parameter is changing, or the data in fact consists of multiple distinct systems, simple application of the reservoir computing principle produces high prediction errors. Here, we propose a HyperReservoir as an extended model of reservoir computing especially designed for such cases. The HyperReservoir combines a main reservoir with a smaller context reservoir, where the latter modulates the output weights of the former. This structure resembles the hypernetworks from deep neural network literature. However, in contrast, HyperReservoirs retain the simple training via linear regression of standard reservoir computing. We compare the proposed architecture with a conventional ESN, in which context acts at the input, and a full-matrix Conceptor, in which context modulates the reservoir state space. We evaluate all three models on time-series prediction tasks based on Lorenz and Rössler systems, including for varying bifurcation parameters and time sampling scales. We find that the HyperReservoir achieves the lowest mean test error in all three tasks, and particularly outperforms conceptors on data that is sampled from the same attractor but at different time scales.

We extend a recently introduced Entropy-Optimal Manifold Clustering (EOMC) to allow for a joint simultaneous identification of subsets and subspaces of relevant features in nonstationary and nonlinear regression problems. It is shown that the proposed extension - that we coin as Entropy-Optimal Manifold Regression (EOMR) - allows a robust learning with linearly-scaling iteration and memory complexities. EOMR is compared to the most complete set of state-of-the-art tools from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) that is available to the author, on the very challenging problems from chaotic and fluid dynamics: (i) on predicting the Lorenz-96 systems dynamics in strongly- and very-strongly chaotic regimes (with forcing parameter being $F=8$ and $F=12$, respectively); and, (ii) on a data from the Hasegawa-Wakatani model on the edge of the tokamak plasma. It is demonstrated that the proposed benchmarks (i) and (ii), indeed, are the very challenging problems for the state of the art ML and AI tools - since both the general-purpose gradient boosted random forests and deep neuronal networks, as well as transformer-based AI tools like TabPFN v.03 (more spezialised for large-dimensional small data learning problems) - result in orders of magnitude inferior root mean squared prediction errors, and orders of magnitude larger model complexities, when compared to the EOMR. For a Hasegawa-Wakatani example, EOMR distills a very simple entropy-optimal and skilful description of the leading Essential Orthogonal Function (EOF) dynamics, given by linear, causal and weakly-stationary autoregressive process described by just 8 parameters.

Highly nonlinear chaotic dynamical systems remain difficult to model due to fundamental trade-offs between complexity, expressivity, and data efficiency. Modern machine learning methods achieve strong predictive performance but often rely on a-priori system knowledge or curated data with limited interpretability. Koopman operator theory offers a promising direction via linear representation in an infinite-dimensional observable space. However, many data-driven Koopman methods seek globally valid operators for which useful finite-dimensional spectral embeddings remain difficult to identify under these constraints. To overcome associated limitations, we introduce Fuzzy Spectral Region Decomposition (fSRD), a fully automated learning framework for estimating finite Koopman representation via multiple operators. The proposed method realizes a data-adaptive framework for assembling locally invariant embeddings, termed Invariant Decomposition. fSRD achieves highly accurate linear reconstructions of nonlinear systems while learning finite-dimensional representations of their induced evolution operators, bridging interpretable operator-theoretic models with expressive data-driven sequence learning. These embeddings are adaptively constructed via a global fuzzy tree model, drawing inspiration from fuzzy neural architectures to learn the induced dynamics while prioritizing parsimonious solutions. Empirical results across canonical chaotic systems (e.g., Lorenz and Duffing) and high-dimensional real-world data demonstrate strong predictive accuracy, interpretability, and robust expressivity across data-rich and data-limited regimes, highlighting the method's generality.

The edge-of-chaos heuristic has long served as a guiding principle for designing reservoir computers, yet its relevance to machine performance remains elusive. Here, taking the spectral radius of the reservoir network as the control parameter, we show that the radius yielding the best forecasting performance does not coincide with the Lyapunov edge of the isolated, teacher-forced, or closed-loop generative reservoir. By analyzing the collective dynamics of the teacher-forced reservoir, we find that the target dynamics are represented mainly by stable Lyapunov modes whose finite-time stability is strongly modulated by the input. This finding motivates a stability-expressivity transfer index, which balances the stability of these modes against their expressivity in representing the target. Across chaotic and quasiperiodic targets, and for both asymmetric and symmetric reservoirs, this index accurately identifies the optimal spectral radius for autonomous forecasting.

Quantum reservoir computing uses a fixed quantum circuit as a feature generator and trains only a simple linear readout on top of it. This makes it cheap to train and free of the optimisation problems that affect many quantum machine-learning models. A natural worry is that the very large feature space the circuit produces might inflate apparent performance without adding anything real. This paper provides two things. First, it gives a complete, reproducible recipe for one such reservoir applied to forecasting chaotic systems, including how data is fed in, how the circuit is built, and how the readout is trained. Second, it gives a way to tell whether the reservoir's high dimension is actually doing useful work. We grow the size of the prediction problem and the size of the quantum reservoir together, so that extra capacity cannot be the explanation for any improvement, and we track a single stability number that measures how well behaved the readout fit is. On two chaotic test systems, a spatiotemporal chain and a shallow-water fluid model, the quantum reservoir keeps a flat, stable error as both sizes grow, while a matched classical reservoir does not. We report where the classical baseline is in fact stronger, so the comparison is honest. The result is a clean specification plus a diagnostic that other groups can apply to any reservoir whose features have a known scale.

Deep learning models, particularly Transformers and Neural Operators, exhibit a well-documented "spectral bias," effectively acting as low-pass filters that smooth out high-frequency information. While benign in fluid dynamics, this bias is catastrophic for Chaotic Dynamical Systems, where the underlying strange attractor is characterized by fractal geometry and infinite spectral density. We introduce the Fractal Neural Operator (FNO), a novel architecture that utilizes a non-resonant prime number basis to approximate continuous dynamical systems. Unlike geometric encodings ($2^k$), which suffer from spectral gaps and resonance, our Harmonic Weierstrass Encoder injects infinite spectral resolution into the latent space. We demonstrate that FNO extends the valid prediction horizon of the Lorenz-63 system to 347 Lyapunov times, exceeding state-of-the-art Reservoir Computing baselines by a factor of 2.3x. These results suggest that "chaos" is not inherently unpredictable to neural networks, but rather requires non-differentiable, fractal embedding manifolds.

Biological systems maintain function in fluctuating environments by transforming past stimulation into internal dynamical states that support future-oriented responses. Reservoir computing provides a computational analogue, but standard formulations often treat the recurrent substrate as a fixed random network and train only the readout. Here we ask how the substrate itself changes when reservoir architecture is placed under evolutionary selection for prediction. Using the Kuramoto--Sivashinsky equation as a testbed for spatiotemporal chaos, we evolved reservoirs over five construction hyperparameters: size, connectivity degree, spectral radius, input scaling, and readout regularization. Evolution reduced prediction error at the population level, extended the low-error forecast horizon, and organized the design space along a diminishing-return size--efficiency frontier. Structural analyses showed that evolved reservoirs remained within a conserved stochastic-block-model-like spectral envelope while refining low-eigenvalue modes, locking modularity to an intermediate band, and pruning connection cost within that band. Pareto analysis showed that elite reservoirs occupied a horizontal floor in the cost--modularity plane, indicating that accuracy and efficiency were achieved jointly rather than through a simple trade-off. These findings show that evolutionary optimization does not merely improve prediction, but exposes interpretable structural constraints on the recurrent substrate: it stabilizes a task-suitable dynamical class and refines the architectural degrees of freedom most relevant for prediction. Evolutionary reservoir computing therefore provides a bio-inspired framework for studying how predictive demands shape adaptive dynamical networks.

Forecasting chaotic dynamical systems such as the Lorenz attractor is notoriously difficult: small numerical errors are amplified exponentially over long autoregressive rollouts. We study seven recurrent and convolutional architectures for the AI-DEEDS 2026 Chaotic Systems Challenge: a vanilla LSTM, an LSTM with additive attention, a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), a BiLSTM trained with the Huber loss, a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), a CNN front-end followed by an LSTM, and a CNN front-end followed by a BiLSTM. All models share the same pre-processing, sequence length, and rollout procedure, isolating the contribution of each design choice. The challenge scores predictions on a 0-100 scale where higher is better. We obtain leaderboard scores between 45.72 and 58.81, with the BiLSTM trained with Huber loss being the strongest configuration. Two findings stand out: (i) adding additive attention to the unidirectional baseline degraded performance by over ten points, and (ii) prepending a CNN front-end to either an LSTM or a BiLSTM did not help and slightly hurt the score. Per-pair RMSE measurements confirm that the BiLSTM family generalizes better in the harder pairs (6-7), while the LSTM + Attention model collapses there (RMSE up to 8.94 on pair 6). We discuss why bidirectional context and a robust loss help in chaotic regimes while attention and CNN front-ends fail in this setting.

Neural dynamical systems are expressive temporal predictors that capture continuous-time dynamics through fine-grained state updates. However, this sequential structure maps poorly onto digital hardware optimized for dense matrix operations, a mismatch that analog neuromorphic computing, with its native continuous-time dynamics, can resolve. We introduce FerroNDS, a neuromorphic system built from two analog primitives: an integrator for temporal accumulation and an oscillator for frequency-selective filtering. We map this system onto compute-in-memory hardware based on multi-bit ferrodiodes. A 128-neuron instance of FerroNDS computes short-time Fourier transform and forecasts a 500-ms horizon for periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic signals. The system achieves sub-watt real-time operation with per-neuron per-inference energy of 1.64 $μ$J (200 Hz) and 0.29 $μ$J (10 kHz), 25-40$\times$ area reduction over SRAM-based digital systems, and per-layer latency of 3.18 ms (200 Hz) and 63.87 $μ$s (10 kHz). To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end integration of a ferrodiode into a neuromorphic computational framework, establishing ferroelectric compute-in-memory as a practical substrate for analog neural dynamical systems.

Accurate traffic flow prediction remains challenging in cross-city, data-scarce scenarios where limited historical data hinders model generalisation. The chaotic nature of traffic dynamics, complex spatio-temporal dependencies, and heterogeneous urban networks complicate few-shot learning across cities. Existing deep learning approaches either treat traffic as purely deterministic or lack mechanisms to model wave-like interference patterns essential for cross-regime traffic dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposes CIWI-CKT, a novel Chaos-Informed Wave Interference Feature Fusion framework with Cross-City Knowledge Transfer. Our framework introduces three core innovations: chaos-informed wave generation that extracts measurable chaos invariants and models traffic as adaptive wave components; meta-interference processing that captures wave interactions between support and query regimes while producing a predictability score for confidence estimation; and chaos-aware meta-learning that enables efficient cross-city knowledge transfer while preserving chaotic characteristics. We establish theoretical guarantees including chaos-to-wave stability, wave-induced dimension reduction, and meta-learning generalisation bounds. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that CIWI-CKT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art spatio-temporal graph learning, transfer learning, prompt-based, and few-shot methods, improving prediction accuracy while substantially reducing required training data.

This submission documents the divide-and-conquer modeling strategy developed for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz Chaotic Systems Challenge at AI-DEEDS 2026. The challenge uses the CTF-4-Science Lorenz benchmark to evaluate chaotic-system prediction across twelve hidden scores and five scenario families: clean forecasting, noisy reconstruction, noisy-input forecasting, few-shot learning, and parametric generalization. Rather than forcing one model class to handle all regimes, the final system matched each prediction block to the evaluation behavior of its task group. The main contributions are: smoothing-based reconstruction for noisy full-trajectory denoising; NG-RC/NVAR models tuned for noisy long-time attractor forecasting; a fitted Lorenz transition correction restricted to the sensitive clean short-time prefix; and a parametric prefix blend for the interpolation task. The resulting system with final public score of 79.63 shows that bounded, scenario-specific updates can outperform broad model replacement on mixed chaotic forecasting benchmarks.

We describe our approach to the CTF4Science Lorenz challenge, a benchmark that mixes short-horizon forecasting, long-time distribution matching, and trajectory reconstruction across nine task pairs. The key discovery is that no single model family dominated all metrics. Instead, we built a metric-aware hybrid system that assigned a different predictor to each metric family: (1) synthetic-pretrained denoisers for full-trajectory reconstruction, (2) Lorenz ODE fitting and trajectory shooting for the first 20 forecast steps, and (3) histogram-tail substitution using synthetic Lorenz libraries for long-time evaluation. A representative mature submission from this system family scored 83.83551 on the public leaderboard, and a small follow-up stack of the same ideas reached 83.85529. We focus on the cleaner intermediate system because it captures the full method while remaining simple enough to reproduce and analyze, while the final submission can be understood as a conservative extension of the same backbone.

Learning chaotic dynamical systems from data requires more than short-term predictive accuracy: the learned model must preserve the attractor geometry and its invariant statistics. Trajectory (zero-order) and Jacobian (first-order) matching supervise the values and tangent structure of the vector field, but neither constrains how the field bends away from its tangent plane. A model can thus match values and tangents at the supervised states yet curve differently from the truth, remaining locally accurate while drifting toward spurious attractors and distorting long-time statistics. We show that enforcing second-order consistency mitigates these failures, but forming the full Hessian is prohibitive in high dimensions. We propose model-constrained randomized Jacobian matching, which compares the Jacobians of the true and learned vector fields at randomly perturbed inputs. A Taylor expansion shows that the expected randomized Jacobian loss decomposes into the nominal Jacobian mismatch plus a Hessian mismatch scaled by the noise variance, implicitly enforcing second-order consistency at $\mathcal{O}(d^2)$ cost without forming the $\mathcal{O}(d^3)$ Hessian tensor. Using only Jacobian evaluations, the method scales to high dimensions where explicit Hessian matching does not. Numerical experiments confirm that second-order methods are robust. For Lorenz63, first-order methods produce catastrophic Lyapunov-exponent outliers under minimal temporal supervision, which second-order methods eliminate while recovering the correct attractor. For coupled Lorenz96, an out-of-distribution forcing sweep separates the methods: all agree up to $F=16$, but beyond $F=18$ only second-order methods preserve the invariant measure and Lyapunov spectrum. On both systems, randomized Jacobian matching performs comparably to explicit Hessian matching at much lower cost.

Time series forecasting often requires learning nonlinear and time-delayed dependencies. A paradigmatic class of forecasting models are nonlinear vector autoregressive processes (NVAR), also known as next-generation reservoir computers (NG-RCs). These models approximate the Koopman operator on the space spanned by their explicit feature library. We consider the identifiability problem for learning Markovian nonlinear dynamical systems and show that the training error as a function of time resolution follows characteristic (pre-)asymptotic scaling laws. These laws depend on whether the feature library can represent the early Lie-series coefficients of the flow map (propagator) exactly or merely approximately. For dynamical systems governed by polynomial vector fields, we demonstrate the mechanism for NVAR/NG-RC models with monomial and Fourier feature libraries. We determine the dependence of the training error on the temporal resolution, the involved nonlinear degree, and the number of delay terms. While delay terms reduce the optimal one-step training error, they improve long-horizon forecasts only when the library provides sufficient nonlinearity. Thus, small training error coexists with weak generalization as the model class is mismatched to the true data-generating process. Numerical experiments on various chaotic dynamical systems confirm the theoretical predictions.

We present an adaptive reservoir computing framework for the CTF-4-Science Lorenz benchmark, which evaluates machine learning models across twelve distinct tasks spanning five qualitatively different scenarios: baseline forecasting, noisy signal reconstruction, forecasting under noise, few-shot learning, and parametric generalization. Rather than applying a uniform inference strategy, we tailor the training and prediction procedure of Echo State Networks (ESNs) to the specific demands of each evaluation scenario. Our key contributions are fourfold: (1) exact reservoir state synchronization that eliminates warmup approximation error in short-time prediction; (2) histogram-guided candidate selection that directly optimizes the long-time ergodic evaluation metric; (3) multi-seed reservoir search for few-shot regimes with severely limited training data; and (4) sequential multi-sequence training that resolves state-distribution mismatch in parametric generalization tasks. The proposed framework achieves a score of 74.91 on the public benchmark leaderboard, demonstrating that carefully adapted reservoir computing constitutes a competitive and computationally efficient approach for diverse chaotic system modeling challenges.

Temporal surrogate models are effective for predicting chaotic dynamical systems where computational cost can be prohibitive. Several deep neural network architectures can be used for such purposes. In this work, a few commonly used architectures are compared using a common training protocol. The objective is to fairly assess the impact of model architectures for long-horizon prediction stability. Experiments are carried out for three problems, the double pendulum, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equations, and the Kolmogorov flow. The experiments are carried out with matching model capacity. Analysis is also carried out for a scenario where each model is individually optimized. It is observed that in both scenarios, the models exhibit categorical differences in long-horizon rollouts. For a concrete quantification, stepwise error injections and perturbation amplifications are analyzed using metrics such as local jacobian, relative one-step bias, and finite-time Lyapunov growth. Additionally, an attractor analysis is also conducted to assess how well the learned models replicate the underlying system geometry. An ablation study to isolate the impact of each component of a continuous-update architecture is also carried out. It is concluded that models that having integrator-like updates show lower bias and perturbation amplification yielding stable long-horizon rollout and more accurate predictions.

Estimating the largest Lyapunov exponent from a scalar time series is difficult when the governing equations, tangent dynamics, and full state vector are unavailable. We propose FEG-Pro, a forecast-error growth profiling framework for nonlinear scalar time series. The method constructs autocorrelation-guided sparse histories, performs distance-weighted k-nearest-neighbor multi-horizon forecasting, and analyzes the logarithmic growth of geometrically averaged forecast errors. Its primary output is the finite-horizon forecast-error growth slope, lambda_FEG. When the error-growth curve supports a quasi-linear regime, this slope can be compared with reference largest Lyapunov exponents as an estimate of the dominant instability rate. The same pipeline also extracts the formal fit-selection regime, curvature, residual roughness after quadratic detrending, monotonicity, and forecast-error distribution entropy (FEDE) from signed multi-horizon errors. These secondary descriptors are intended not only as diagnostic controls for the slope, but also as candidate machine-learning features for nonlinear signal analysis, because they encode profile geometry and distributional uncertainty not captured by lambda_FEG alone. We evaluate the method on chaotic maps, Mackey-Glass delay dynamics, and scalar Lorenz-63 observables with known or reference exponents. Full-record experiments show good agreement in quasi-linear cases and meaningful curve-shape information in curved or weak profiles. A dyadic length-halving experiment on representative logistic, Mackey-Glass, and Lorenz records shows that residual roughness and mean FEDE often change monotonically and remain interpretable as record length decreases, even when the slope becomes biased or highly variable. The results support treating forecast-error growth as a structured profile and feature-generation framework rather than a single-number estimator.

Seismic prediction remains challenging due to the highly nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of earthquake signals. While classical deep learning models such as LSTMs and CNNs capture local temporal features, and quantum models offer richer state representations, their integration with chaos-driven mechanisms is underexplored. We introduce QuChaTeR, a hybrid architecture that combines wavelet-based preprocessing, chaotic maps, and variational quantum circuits with recurrent structures to enhance temporal feature extraction. Implemented in PyTorch and PennyLane, QuChaTeR is benchmarked against classical (LSTM, GRU, RNN, 1D-CNN, Reservoir Computing) and quantum-inspired (Quantum LSTM) baselines. On real-world seismic datasets, QuChaTeR consistently converges faster and achieves superior performance across multiple evaluation criteria. Despite promising results, scalability and quantum hardware limitations remain challenges. Overall, this work demonstrates how quantum-chaotic hybridization provides a practical pathway toward more accurate and robust earthquake prediction.

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos ($K$), coupling strength ($\varepsilon$), and system size ($N$), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.

Identity teacher forcing (ITF) enables stable training of deterministic recurrent surrogates for chaotic dynamical systems and has been highly effective for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) with recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including interpretable almost-linear RNNs (AL-RNNs). However, as an intervention-based prediction loss (and thus a generalized Bayes update), teacher forcing need not match the free-running model's marginal likelihood geometry. We compare the objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs, estimating ambiguity-aware observed information via Louis' identity. In the switching setting studied here, conditioning on a single forced regime path (as ITF does) inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood curvature is reduced by a missing-information correction when multiple switching explanations remain plausible. In Lorenz-63 experiments, windowed evidence fine-tuning improves held-out evidence but can degrade dynamical quantities of interest (QoIs) relative to ITF-pretrained models.

Variational quantum circuits train poorly on chaotic forecasting, usually blamed on barren plateaus (exponentially vanishing gradients). Using an exactly simulable four-qubit variational quantum physics-informed circuit fit to Lorenz-63, we show the barren-plateau explanation fails: the failure is an architectural capacity ceiling fixed by the circuit time-encoding, not its trainable depth. Four measurements support this. (i) A McClean-comparable gradient-variance estimator sits at the local-cost Haar/2-design scale 2^(-2n)=3.9e-3 at n=4; on structurally live parameters it decays about ninefold with depth then saturates there, large enough to train, not an exponential collapse. (ii) At a common budget of 200 optimiser iterations (600, in three stages, for layer-wise), gradient descent, layer-wise, and SPSA reach the same order of magnitude of loss, so no optimiser unlocks a better basin. (iii) The output-Jacobian rank saturates at 33 from five layers on, so depth buys no new output directions. (iv) A Fourier analysis explains why: the qubit-1 phase encoding acts on the initial |0> and is inert, so the maximum accessible frequency is 2.5/t_max=0.83 Hz, identical at every depth and about 4.4x below the narrowest Lorenz component bandwidth. The corrected band has dimension 1+2x5=11 per observable, and 3x11=33 equals the measured rank ceiling exactly, unifying the two diagnostics. A trained depth sweep agrees: mean loss improves with depth then flattens once the rank saturates. We correct our earlier preprint diagnosis, which compared unnormalised gradient norms to the McClean threshold, and place the advantage of fixed reservoirs and classical echo-state networks in architecture, not quantum mechanics.

Parametrically driven oscillators provide a natural platform for neuromorphic computation, where nonlinear mode coupling and intrinsic dynamics enable both memory and high-dimensional transformation. Here, we investigate a two-mode system exhibiting 2:1 parametric resonance and demonstrate its operation as a reservoir computer across distinct dynamical regimes, including sub-threshold, parametric resonance, and frequency-comb states. By encoding input signals into the drive amplitude and sampling the resulting temporal and spectral responses, we perform one step-ahead prediction of benchmark chaotic systems, including Mackey-Glass, Rossler, and Lorenz dynamics. We find that optimal computational performance is achieved within the parametric resonance regime, where nonlinear interactions are activated while temporal coherence is preserved. In contrast, although frequency-comb states introduce increased spectral dimensionality, their performance is not consistently good across their existence band and also degrades in the chaotic comb regime due to loss of phase coherence. Mapping prediction error over parameter space reveals a direct correspondence between computational capability and the underlying bifurcation structure, with low-error regions aligned with the parametric resonance boundary. We further show that the input modulation, the detuning from the frequency matching condition, damping ratio, and input data rate systematically control the accessible dynamical regimes and thereby the computational performance. These results establish parametric resonance as a robust operating regime for oscillator-based reservoir computing and provide design principles for tuning physical systems toward optimal neuromorphic functionality.

For autoregressive modeling of chaotic dynamical systems over long time horizons, the stability of both training and inference is a major challenge in building scientific foundation models. We present a hybrid technique in which an autoregressive transformer is embedded within a novel shooting-based mixed finite element scheme, exposing topological structure that enables provable stability. For forward problems, we prove preservation of discrete energies, while for training we prove uniform bounds on gradients, provably avoiding the exploding gradient problem. Combined with a vision transformer, this yields latent tokens admitting structure-preserving dynamics. We outperform modern foundation models with a $65\times$ reduction in model parameters and long-horizon forecasting of chaotic systems. A "mini-foundation" model of a fusion component shows that 12 simulations suffice to train a real-time surrogate, achieving a $9{,}000\times$ speedup over particle-in-cell simulation.

Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model with data-driven methods such as machine learning emulators. While emulators are promising tools for accelerating simulations and solving inverse problems, they still struggle to learn chaotic dynamics, where sensitivity to initial conditions renders exact long-term forecasts infeasible, especially given noisy data. Recent work instead trains emulators to match the statistical properties of chaotic attractors, but these approaches often rely on handcrafted summary statistics or large, diverse multi-environment datasets. In this work, we propose a family of adversarial optimal transport objectives that can jointly learn high-quality summary statistics and a physically consistent emulator from a single noisy trajectory. We theoretically analyze and experimentally validate a Sinkhorn divergence formulation (2-Wasserstein) and a WGAN-style dual formulation (1-Wasserstein) of our approach. Numerical experiments across a variety of chaotic systems, including ones with high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos, show that emulators trained using our proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.

Predictive multiplicity and chaotic dynamics represent two fundamental challenges in machine learning that have evolved independently despite their conceptual connections. We bridge this gap by introducing horizon-constrained Rashomon sets, a theoretical framework that characterizes how model multiplicity evolves with prediction horizon in chaotic systems. Unlike static prediction tasks where the Rashomon set remains fixed, chaos induces exponential divergence among initially similar models, fundamentally transforming the nature of predictive equivalence. We prove that the effective Rashomon set contracts exponentially with lead time at a rate determined by the maximum Lyapunov exponent and introduce Lyapunov-weighted metrics that provide tighter bounds on predictive disagreement. Leveraging these insights, we develop decision-aligned selection algorithms that choose among near-optimal models based on downstream utility rather than forecast accuracy alone. Extensive experiments on synthetic chaotic systems (Lorenz-96, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky) and real-world applications (wind power, traffic, weather) demonstrate that our framework improves decision quality by 18-34% while maintaining competitive predictive performance. This work establishes the first rigorous connection between chaos theory and predictive multiplicity, providing principled guidance for deploying machine learning in safety-critical chaotic domains.

The accurate forecasting of complex, high-dimensional dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental task across numerous scientific and engineering disciplines. A significant challenge arises from noise-corrupted measurements, which severely degrade the performance of data-driven models. In chaotic dynamical systems, where small initial errors amplify exponentially, it is particularly difficult to develop a model from noisy data that achieves short-term accuracy while preserving long-term invariant properties. To overcome this, we consider the weak formulation as a complementary approach to the classical $L2$-loss function for training models of dynamical systems. We empirically verify that the weak formulation, with a proper choice of test function and integration domain, effectively filters noisy data. This insight explains why a weak form loss function is analogous to fitting a model to filtered data and provides a practical way to parameterize the weak form. Subsequently, we demonstrate how this approach overcomes the instability and inaccuracy of standard Neural ODE (NODE) in modeling chaotic systems. Through numerical examples, we show that our proposed training strategy, the Weak Penalty NODE, is computationally efficient, solver-agnostic, and yields accurate and robust forecasts across benchmark chaotic systems and a real-world climate dataset.

We study how the degree of nonlinearity in the input data affects the optimal design of reservoir computers, focusing on how closely the model's nonlinearity should align with that of the data. By reducing minimal RCs to a single tunable nonlinearity parameter, we explore how the predictive performance varies with the degree of nonlinearity in the reservoir. To provide controlled testbeds, we generalize to the fractional Halvorsen system, a novel chaotic system with fractional exponents. Our experiments reveal that the prediction performance is maximized when the reservoir's nonlinearity matches the nonlinearity present in the data. In cases where multiple nonlinearities are present in the data, we find that the correlation dimension of the predicted signal is reconstructed correctly when the smallest nonlinearity is matched. We use this observation to propose a method for estimating the minimal nonlinearity in unknown time series by sweeping the reservoir exponent and identifying the transition to a successful reconstruction. Applying this method to both synthetic and real-world datasets, including financial time series, we demonstrate its practical viability. Finally, we transfer these insights to classical RC by augmenting traditional architectures with fractional, generalized reservoir states. This yields performance gains, particularly in resource-constrained scenarios such as physical reservoirs, where increasing reservoir size is impractical or economically unviable. Our work provides a principled route toward tailoring RCs to the intrinsic complexity of the systems they aim to model.

Many systems resist analytical modeling, making data-driven inference of dynamics important. Yet data-driven methods can fail to converge or generalize, leaving open a central question: When can system behavior be learned reliably from data, and when is such learning impossible? We answer this question using adversarial dynamical systems to identify the boundary between accessible and inaccessible regimes. In Koopman operator learning, a leading framework for representing nonlinear dynamics through linear spectral objects, we design optimal data-driven spectral algorithms with convergence and certification guarantees under conditions arising broadly in physical systems. This yields a convergence theory for Koopman-operator approximations and resolves a longstanding open problem in Koopman spectral analysis. Conversely, by constructing adversarial systems, we prove matching impossibility results: without these conditions, no single-sequence limiting procedure can guarantee learning, regardless of data quality. These results sharply characterize when data-driven spectral learning can succeed and when it must fail. We validate the framework on oscillators, chaotic fluid flows and Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting. In the latter, we uncover hidden modes of Arctic sea ice decline, deliver long-range forecasts with geographic error bounds, and outperform state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models at substantially lower computational cost, enabling real-time deployment on standard CPUs.