Clinical Outcome Prediction

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Clinical outcome prediction estimates what may happen to a patient, from short-term deterioration and readmission to disease progression, treatment response, and survival. Common approaches include tree-based models and survival analysis, temporal transformers and recurrent networks, multimodal fusion of EHRs with imaging or omics, and newer foundation models, federated learning, and causal or digital-twin methods. Evaluation spans settings such as ICU records from MIMIC and eICU, longitudinal Alzheimer’s cohorts such as ADNI, and multi-site cancer and imaging benchmarks, with attention to external validation, calibration, and subgroup performance. A central tension is that complex models can improve prediction, yet missing data, site shifts, label leakage, and weak uncertainty or fairness assessment often limit whether results generalize and support clinical decisions.

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266 papers24 papers in the last four weeks, down 8% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Predicting Post-Traumatic Epilepsy from Clinical Records using Large Language Model Embeddings
Apr 16, 2026Wenhui Cui, Nicholas Swingle, Anand A. Joshi +2Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction
Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, CA, USA · Epilepsy Center, Cleveland Clinic Neurological Institute, OH, USA
Quantum Machine Learning for Colorectal Cancer Data: Anastomotic Leak Classification and Risk Factors
Apr 15, 2026Vojtěch Novák, Ivan Zelinka, Lenka Přibylová +3Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction
Department of Computer Science, Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic · IT4Innovations National Supercomputing Center, Ostrava, Czech Republic · Department of Applied Mathematics, Technical University of Ostrava, Czech Republic +3
Sparse Autoencoder Decomposition of Clinical Sequence Model Representations: Feature Complexity, Task Specialisation, and Mortality Prediction
Apr 13, 2026Chris Sainsbury, Feng Dong, Andreas KarwathEHR Foundation Models Sparse Autoencoders
School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, UK · School of Medicine, University of Dundee, UK · NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, UK +2
Neuro-Oracle: A Trajectory-Aware Agentic RAG Framework for Interpretable Epilepsy Surgical Prognosis
Apr 10, 2026Aizierjiang Aiersilan, Mohamad KoubeissiClinical Outcome Prediction Retrieval-Augmented Generation
The George Washington University
AMO-ENE: Attention-based Multi-Omics Fusion Model for Outcome Prediction in Extra Nodal Extension and HPV-associated Oropharyngeal Cancer
Apr 10, 2026Gautier Hénique, William Le, Gabriel Dayan +8Clinical Outcome Prediction Cancer Survival Prediction
MedICAL Laboratory, Polytechnique Montréeal, Montreal, Canada · Centre de recherche du CHUM (CRCHUM), Montréal, Canada · Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal (CHUM), Montreal Canada
Vision Transformers for Preoperative CT-Based Prediction of Histopathologic Chemotherapy Response Score in High-Grade Serous Ovarian Carcinoma
Apr 10, 2026Francesca Fati, Felipe Coutinho, Marika Reinius +25Clinical Outcome Prediction Oncology
Department of Gynecologic Oncology, European Institute of Oncology, IEO, IRCCS, Italy. · Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Italy. · INESC TEC, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Portugal. +12
Efficient and Effective Internal Memory Retrieval for LLM-Based Healthcare Prediction
Apr 8, 2026Mingchen Li, Jiatan Huang, Zonghai Yao +1Memory-Augmented Language Models Medical LLMs
University of Massachusetts, Amherst · University of Connecticut · University of Massachusetts, Lowell +1
SAND: The Challenge on Speech Analysis for Neurodegenerative Disease Assessment
Apr 7, 2026Giovanna Sannino, Ivanoe De Falco, Nadia Brancati +10Clinical Speech Processing Clinical Outcome Prediction
National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute for High-Performance Computing and Networking (ICAR), Naples, 80131, Italy · Department of Mathematics and Physics, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Caserta, 81100, Italy · Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technologies, University of Naples “Federico II”, Naples, 80125, Italy +3
Transcriptomic Models for Immunotherapy Response Prediction Show Limited Cross-cohort Generalisability
Apr 7, 2026Yuheng Liang, Lucy Chhuo, Ahmadreza Argha +8Clinical Outcome Prediction Oncology
UNSW BioMedical Machine Learning Lab (BML), School of Biomedical Engineering, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia · Garvan Institute of Meidical Research, Sydney, NSW, 2000, Australia · School of Biomedical Engineering, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia +7
Explainable Machine Learning for Sepsis Outcome Prediction Using a Novel Romanian Electronic Health Record Dataset
Apr 6, 2026Andrei-Alexandru Bunea, Ovidiu Ghibea, Dan-Matei Popovici +2Sepsis Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction
POLITEHNICA Bucharest National University of Science and Technology, Bucharest, Romania · Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Bucharest, Romania · General Surgery Department, University Emergency Hospital of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania +1
A Multimodal Foundation Model of Spatial Transcriptomics and Histology for Biological Discovery and Clinical Prediction
Apr 4, 2026Jinxi Xiang, Siyu Hou, Yuchen Li +17Spatial Transcriptomics Gene Expression Prediction from Histopathology Images
Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA · Department of Medicine (Oncology), Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA +4
Resource-Conscious Modeling for Next- Day Discharge Prediction Using Clinical Notes
Apr 3, 2026Ha Na Cho, Sairam Sutari, Alexander Lopez +2Clinical Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction
University of California, Irvine, Donald Bren School of Information, Department of Informatics · University of California, Irvine, Department of Neurosurgery
BioCOMPASS: Integrating Biomarkers into Transformer-Based Immunotherapy Response Prediction
Apr 1, 2026Sayed Hashim, Frank Soboczenski, Paul CairnsCancer Drug Response Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction
University of York, UK
Vocal Prognostic Digital Biomarkers in Monitoring Chronic Heart Failure: A Longitudinal Observational Study
Mar 31, 2026Fan Wu, Matthias P. Nägele, Daryush D. Mehta +4Clinical Outcome Prediction Passive Acoustic Monitoring
Centre for Digital Health Interventions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Agentic System Lab, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Cardiology, University Heart Center Zurich, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland +5
Multimodal Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Metastasis in a Swedish Multi-Cancer Cohort
Mar 31, 2026Franco Rugolon, Korbinian Randl, Braslav Jovanovic +2Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Predicting Neuromodulation Outcome for Parkinson's Disease with Generative Virtual Brain Model
Mar 31, 2026Siyuan Du, Siyi Li, Shuwei Bai +10Clinical Outcome Prediction Parkinson's Disease
College of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Fudan University, Shanghai, China · Shanghai AI Laboratory, Shanghai, China · University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui, China +6
Automating Early Disease Prediction Via Structured and Unstructured Clinical Data
Mar 30, 2026Ane G Domingo-Aldama, Marcos Merino Prado, Alain García Olea +3Clinical Outcome Prediction
University of the Basque Country (EHU) · Basurto University Hospital
Improving Risk Stratification in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy: A Novel Score Combining Echocardiography, Clinical, and Medication Data
Mar 27, 2026Marion Taconné, Valentina D. A. Corino, Annamaria Del Franco +6Clinical Outcome Prediction Cardiovascular Risk Prediction
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering (DEIB), Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy · CardioTech Lab, IRCCS Centro Cardiologico Monzino, 20138 Milano, Italy · Cardiomyopathy Unit, Careggi University Hospital, 50134 Florence, Italy +2
Preventing Data Leakage in EEG-Based Survival Prediction: A Two-Stage Embedding and Transformer Framework
Mar 26, 2026Yixin Zhou, Zhixiang Liu, Vladimir I. Zadorozhny +1Temporal Data Leakage Clinical Outcome Prediction
University of Pittsburgh School of Computing and Information Pittsburgh, PA 15213 · University of Pittsburgh Department of Critical Care Medicine Pittsburgh, PA 15213
Self-Supervised Learning for Knee Osteoarthritis: Diagnostic Limitations and Prognostic Value of Hospital Data
Mar 26, 2026Haresh Rengaraj Rajamohan, Yuxuan Chen, Kyunghyun Cho +1Self-Supervised Learning Radiology VLMs
Center for Data Science, New York University, New York, 10011, NY, United States · Perlmutter Cancer Center, New York University Langone Health, New York, 10016, NY, USA · Department of Radiology, New York University Langone Health, New York, 10016, NY, USA +1
Scaling Recurrence-aware Foundation Models for Clinical Records via Next-Visit Prediction
Mar 25, 2026Haresh Rengaraj Rajamohan, Xiang Gao, Weicheng Zhu +10EHR Foundation Models Longitudinal EHR Modeling
Center for Data Science, New York University, New York, NY, USA · Department of Radiology, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA · Center for Biomedical Imaging, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA +1
Can we generate portable representations for clinical time series data using LLMs?
Mar 25, 2026Zongliang Ji, Yifei Sun, Andre Amaral +2Domain Generalization Time Series Representation Learning
University of Toronto, Canada · Vector Institute, Canada · Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Canada
Discriminative Representation Learning for Clinical Prediction
Mar 21, 2026Yang Zhang, Li Fan, Samuel Lawrence +1Representation Learning Clinical Outcome Prediction
The University of Hong Kong (HKU) · Columbia Univeristy
SDE-Driven Spatio-Temporal Hypergraph Neural Networks for Irregular Longitudinal fMRI Connectome Modeling in Alzheimer's Disease
Mar 20, 2026Ruiying Chen, Yutong Wang, Houliang Zhou +3Irregular Time-Series Modeling Alzheimer's Disease
Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA · New York University, New York, NY, USA · University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Predicting Trajectories of Long COVID in Adult Women: The Critical Role of Causal Disentanglement
Mar 18, 2026Jing Wang, Jie Shen, Yiming Luo +3Clinical Outcome Prediction
National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD · Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ · Columbia University, NYC, NY +2
Federated Learning with Multi-Partner OneFlorida+ Consortium Data for Predicting Major Postoperative Complications
Mar 17, 2026Yuanfang Ren, Varun Sai Vemuri, Zhenhong Hu +6Clinical Risk Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction
Intelligent Clinical Care Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. · Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Hypertension, and Renal Transplantation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. · Department of Surgery, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. +1
A Computationally Efficient Multi-Section Whole Slide Image Analysis for Capturing Prostate Cancer Multifocality in Biochemical Recurrence Prediction
Mar 17, 2026Yesung Cho, Dongmyung Shin, Sujeong Hong +7Clinical Outcome Prediction Whole-Slide Image Analysis
OmixAI Co. Ltd., Republic of Korea, 02636. · Oncocross Co. Ltd., Republic of Korea, 05836. · Department of Urology, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Republic of Korea, 50612 +1
Learning from Limited and Incomplete Data: A Multimodal Framework for Predicting Pathological Response in NSCLC
Mar 16, 2026Alice Natalina Caragliano, Giulia Farina, Fatih Aksu +10Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Prediction
Unit of Artificial Intelligence and Computer Systems, Department of Engineering, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy · Fondazione Policlinico Universitario Campus Bio-Medico, Rome, Italy · Department of Medicine and Surgery, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy +1
EyeWorld: A Generative World Model of Ocular State and Dynamics
Mar 14, 2026Ziyu Gao, Xinyuan Wu, Xiaolan Chen +10Ophthalmic Image Analysis Medical Image Analysis
School of Optometry, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong. · Eye Center of Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310009, Zhejiang, China · Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology, Zhejiang Provincial Clinical Research Center for Eye Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial Engineering Institute On Eye Diseases, Hangzhou, 310009, Zhejiang, China +5
Fronto-parietal and fronto-temporal EEG coherence as predictive neuromarkers of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation response in treatment-resistant schizophrenia: A machine learning study
Mar 14, 2026Yapeng Cui, Ruoxi Yun, Shumin Zhang +16Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Prediction
Engineering Research Center of Molecular and Neuro Imaging of the Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xidian University, Xian, 710126, China. · Wearable BCI and Intelligent Rehabilitation Innovation Lab, Guangzhou Institute of Technology, Xidian University, Guangzhou, 510530, China. · School of Second Clinical Medicine/The Second Affiliated Hospital, Yunnan University of Chinese Medicine, Kunming, 650500, China. +1

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Predicting Post-Traumatic Epilepsy from Clinical Records using Large Language Model Embeddings

Wenhui Cui, Nicholas Swingle, Anand A. Joshi, Dileep Nair+1

Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, CA, USA · Epilepsy Center, Cleveland Clinic Neurological Institute, OH, USA

Clinical Outcome Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction

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Objective: Post-traumatic epilepsy (PTE) is a debilitating neurological disorder that develops after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Early prediction of PTE remains challenging due to heterogeneous clinical data, limited positive cases, and reliance on resource-intensive neuroimaging data. We investigate whether routinely collected acute clinical records alone can support early PTE prediction using language model-based approaches. Methods: Using a curated subset of the TRACK-TBI cohort, we developed an automated PTE prediction framework that implements pretrained large language models (LLMs) as fixed feature extractors to encode clinical records. Tabular features, LLM-generated embeddings, and hybrid feature representations were evaluated using gradient-boosted tree classifiers under stratified cross-validation. Results: LLM embeddings achieved performance improvements by capturing contextual clinical information compared to using tabular features alone. The best performance was achieved by a modality-aware feature fusion strategy combining tabular features and LLM embeddings, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.892 and AUPRC of 0.798. Acute post-traumatic seizures, injury severity, neurosurgical intervention, and ICU stay are key contributors to the predictive performance. Significance: These findings demonstrate that routine acute clinical records contain information suitable for early PTE risk prediction using LLM embeddings in conjunction with gradient-boosted tree classifiers. This approach represents a promising complement to imaging-based prediction.