Dirichlet Process Mixture Models

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture of regression trees with a Dirichlet process prior over tree-parameter pairs, enabling data-driven selection of ensemble size and unifying CART, BART, random forests, and boosting. A novel splitting rule driven by the posterior predictive of a Gaussian process within each terminal node generates flexible, smooth decision boundaries; remarkably, the GP density cancels exactly in the Metropolis--Hastings ratio for GROW/PRUNE moves, ensuring computational feasibility. An exact Gibbs sampler for posterior predictive inference propagates uncertainty through random tree traversal. A parallel MPI implementation distributes independent tree updates across processors, achieving adequate speedups. We prove posterior consistency at rate $n^{-1/4}$ in Hellinger distance under only continuity of the true regression function, allowing misspecification, via the identity $h(Θ)=0$. Simulations on Friedman benchmark show near-nominal coverage (0.94 Gaussian, 0.92 Cauchy), robust to high-dimensional noise and heavy tails, outperforming BART and bagged CART. Applications to QSAR toxicity, crime, riboflavin, wheat genomics, and air quality confirm reliable credible intervals and automatic sparsity. The DP mixture offers a principled, robust, theoretically justified alternative for challenging regression with honest uncertainty quantification.

On-the-fly category discovery requires deciding for each incoming test sample whether to assign it to an existing category or spawn a new one. Existing methods typically implement this decision through matching-based heuristics, such as radius- or hash-based rules. While effective in practice, these methods usually treat category birth implicitly as a fallback when no existing category matches confidently, rather than as an explicit alternative supported by its own statistical evidence. To address this, we propose DP-BOA, a posterior-predictive decision framework based on an online Dirichlet-process Gaussian mixture model with a Normal-Inverse-Wishart prior. During training, we use labeled data to calibrate a shared NIW prior over category Gaussians and warm-start the known-category posteriors. At test time, for each incoming sample, DP-BOA compares the posterior predictive evidence for assignment to existing categories against the evidence for spawning a new category induced by the DP prior, and then updates category statistics online after the decision. The method captures anisotropic category geometry and naturally adapts decision confidence as evidence accumulates. Across standard OCD benchmarks, DP-BOA consistently outperforms strong baselines and delivers particularly strong novel-class discovery performance while maintaining competitive known-class accuracy.

3D Gaussian Splatting represents scenes as finite mixtures of anisotropic Gaussians whose number of components $K$ is set by heuristic density control or user caps. Variational Bayes Gaussian Splatting (VBGS) recast splat fitting as conjugate variational inference, but $K$ remains fixed. We replace the finite symmetric Dirichlet over mixture weights with a truncated stick-breaking Dirichlet-process prior -- and, as a theory-backed alternative, a sparse overfitted finite Dirichlet -- so that the number of occupied components adapts to the data while every update remains a closed-form coordinate-ascent step; a natural-gradient stochastic variant makes the per-step cost independent of the number of points. We give an exact monotonicity guarantee, a rigorous truncation-error bound correcting an anti-conservative large-$α$ approximation in common use, and an honest account of what the fitted number of components estimates. Empirically: (i) the effective complexity $\hat{K}$ adapts to scene complexity and recovers the true $K$ within $\pm 1$ on well-separated synthetic data with regime-appropriate concentration; (ii) a deconfounded comparison shows the DP prior's contribution is complexity selection, not per-component efficiency -- converged DP fits exceed single-pass fixed-$K$ VBGS by +2.7 dB at matched budgets yet tie an equally converged fixed-$K$ baseline, and on 3D scenes DP-Splat matches or exceeds VBGS's held-out color prediction with 5.9-7.6x fewer components; (iii) the posterior-predictive color variance is well calibrated on model-matched synthetic data; and (iv) the ordering suggested by exact-posterior asymptotics reverses under mean-field coordinate ascent: the DP prior resists over-splitting while the sparse finite mixture saturates its truncation, a gap between variational practice and posterior asymptotics documented across three orders of magnitude in $N$.

Probabilistic data association (PDA) improves semantic SLAM in perceptually aliased scenes, but existing methods often assume a fixed landmark set, recompute association weights as the map grows, or rely on hand-tuned null-hypothesis weights. To address these limitations, we propose BPDA-GMM, an online Bayesian PDA framework for semantic SLAM with a growing object-level map. BPDA-GMM uses a Dirichlet-process prior to induce a Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) association model, where accumulated evidence favors existing landmarks, and the concentration parameter assigns probability mass to new landmarks. For each semantic detection, plausible candidates are selected by a joint semantic-geometric gate, CRP-weighted association probabilities are computed, and object landmarks are updated as semantic Gaussians in closed form. The resulting landmark set forms a Gaussian mixture model, and its dominant component is passed to the back-end as a max-mixture semantic factor. When association weights are inconclusive, an ambiguity-triggered $α$-divergence tempering step improves discrimination. Finally, a decoupled back-end zeroes the pose Jacobian of semantic factors, allowing noisy detections to refine landmarks without directly perturbing the trajectory. Experiments in simulation and on a real indoor dataset demonstrate improved trajectory accuracy, semantic mapping quality, and robustness to perceptual aliasing and classifier errors over state-of-the-art baselines. Code and video are publicly available at https://github.com/thanhnguyencanh/BPDA-SLAM.

Single-pass uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for classification represent uncertainty by predicting a tractable distribution over the class probability vector. While existing approaches primarily focus on enhancing the expressiveness of this distribution, they often provide limited insight into how predictive uncertainty is structured and aggregated, resulting in weak interpretability. We introduce the courtroom analogy, which conceptualizes uncertainty-aware classification as a structured debate among class-specific advocates. Each advocate forms a probabilistic opinion, and a final verdict is reached by aggregating these opinions using input-dependent plausibility weights. In this framework, each advocate's opinion is modeled as a Dirichlet distribution whose concentration parameter is decomposed into shared evidence and class-specific advocacy. This yields a structured mixture of Dirichlet distributions with semantically interpretable parameters. To instantiate this formulation, we propose Mixture of Dirichlet EXperts (MoDEX), a single-pass neural architecture that predicts the courtroom parameters, enabling efficient and expressive UQ while explicitly modeling uncertainty aggregation. We demonstrate that MoDEX enjoys strong theoretical properties and achieves state-of-the-art UQ performance across diverse benchmarks, yielding interpretable uncertainty estimates with meaningful semantics.

Multi-agent autonomous exploration is essential for applications such as environmental monitoring, search and rescue, and industrial-scale surveillance. However, effective coordination under communication constraints remains a significant challenge. Frontier exploration algorithms analyze the boundary between the known and unknown regions to determine the next-best view that maximizes exploratory gain. This article proposes an enhancement to existing frontier-based exploration algorithms by introducing a probabilistic approach to frontier prioritization. By leveraging Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model (DP-GMM) and a probabilistic formulation of information gain, the method improves the quality of frontier prioritization. The proposed enhancement, integrated into two state-of-the-art multi-agent exploration algorithms, consistently improves performance across environments of varying clutter, communication constraints, and team sizes. Simulations showcase an average gain of $10\%$ and $14\%$ for the two algorithms across all combinations. Successful deployment in real-world experiments with a dual-drone system further corroborates these findings.

End-to-End autonomous driving (E2E-AD) systems face challenges in lifelong learning, including catastrophic forgetting, difficulty in knowledge transfer across diverse scenarios, and spurious correlations between unobservable confounders and true driving intents. To address these issues, we propose DeLL, a Deconfounded Lifelong Learning framework that integrates a Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) with the front-door adjustment mechanism from causal inference. The DPMM is employed to construct two dynamic knowledge spaces: a trajectory knowledge space for clustering explicit driving behaviors and an implicit feature knowledge space for discovering latent driving abilities. Leveraging the non-parametric Bayesian nature of DPMM, our framework enables adaptive expansion and incremental updating of knowledge without predefining the number of clusters, thereby mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Meanwhile, the front-door adjustment mechanism utilizes the DPMM-derived knowledge as mediators to deconfound spurious correlations, such as those induced by sensor noise or environmental changes, and enhances the causal expressiveness of the learned representations. Additionally, we introduce an evolutionary trajectory decoder that enables non-autoregressive planning. To evaluate the lifelong learning performance of E2E-AD, we propose new evaluation protocols and metrics based on Bench2Drive. Extensive evaluations in the closed-loop CARLA simulator demonstrate that our framework significantly improves adaptability to new driving scenarios and overall driving performance, while effectively retaining previously acquired knowledge. Code: https://github.com/Mooncakebro/DeLL

Modern manufacturing systems often experience multiple and unpredictable failure behaviors, yet most existing prognostic models assume a fixed, known set of failure modes with labeled historical data. This assumption limits the use of digital twins for predictive maintenance, especially in high-mix or adaptive production environments, where new failure modes may emerge, and the failure mode labels may be unavailable. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric framework that unifies a Dirichlet process mixture module for unsupervised failure mode discovery with a neural network-based prognostic module. The key innovation lies in an iterative feedback mechanism to jointly learn two modules. These modules iteratively update one another to dynamically infer, expand, or merge failure modes as new data arrive while providing high prognostic accuracy. Experiments on both simulation and aircraft engine datasets show that the proposed approach performs competitively with or significantly better than existing approaches. It also exhibits robust online adaptation capabilities, making it well-suited for digital-twin-based system health management in complex manufacturing environments.