Distribution Shift Robustness

Medical image classifiers are often trained within one source population, yet clinical deployment requires robustness to patients whose appearance, acquisition style, and disease prevalence differ from the source cohort. Existing fairness and robustness methods often require group supervision or treat appearance variation as an undifferentiated nuisance, which is insufficient when population-correlated low-level cues and lesion evidence share edge and texture structure. We study a strict source-only cross-population setting, where external populations are unseen during optimization, validation, scheduling, hyperparameter and model selection. We propose RED-Sphere, a plug-and-play robustness framework for image classification under unseen population shifts. It estimates shortcut-sensitive nuisance responses with an edge and feature energy prior, attenuates dominant responses through residual soft gating, regularizes masked nuisance views with counterfactual-inspired consistency and separation losses, and predicts labels with normalized spherical prototypes. It favours angular semantic evidence over source-correlated activation magnitude while preserving lesion structure. Although demonstrated on 2D Scanning Laser Ophthalmoscopy (SLO) fundus classification for Age-Related Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Diabetic Retinopathy (DR), RED-Sphere is not tied to retinal anatomy: the same principle can be adapted with modality-specific nuisance priors wherever appearance shortcuts and semantic evidence are entangled. Under a strict White-only Harvard-FairVision protocol, RED-Sphere improves held-out macro-F1 across all 20 task and backbone comparisons, with average gains of 1.28 and 2.98 F1 points on AMD and DR. Gains in AUC and PR-AUC, visual diagnostics, ablations, and sensitivity analyses further support stronger external semantic alignment and more stable angular disease geometry.

UAV-based vehicle re-identification (ReID) has emerged as a promising technique for traffic surveillance, urban monitoring, and public-safety applications thanks to the flexible viewpoints and wide-area coverage provided by unmanned aerial vehicles. However, despite recent progress on UAV-based vehicle ReID benchmarks, the robustness of existing methods under adverse weather remains insufficiently studied. This is important because weather degradation can significantly affect the fine-grained appearance cues required for reliable vehicle matching in aerial imagery, especially under small object scale, viewpoint variation, and complex backgrounds. In this paper, we present a controlled comparative study of three representative recent vehicle ReID methods, namely CLIP-ReID, MSINet, and AdaSP, on two UAV-based benchmarks, VRU and UAV-VeID. To ensure consistent robustness evaluation, we generate synthetic foggy and rainy variants of both datasets using an analytical weather-effect pipeline while preserving the original identities and data splits. All methods are then trained and evaluated under matched clean, foggy, and rainy conditions. Experimental results show that adverse weather consistently degrades retrieval performance across both datasets, with rain causing larger drops than fog in nearly all settings. Among the evaluated methods, AdaSP demonstrates the strongest robustness, achieving 93.0% and 88.5% mAP on VRU-Large, and 88.7% and 76.2% mAP on UAV-VeID-Test under foggy and rainy conditions, respectively. Overall, our findings show that simulated adverse weather substantially increases the difficulty of UAV-based vehicle ReID, reveals clear robustness differences among recent methods, and highlights the need for weather-aware model design and evaluation protocols in future aerial ReID research. The code is released at https://github.com/tranminhvu945/Benchmarking-ReID.

Foundation models are increasingly used as image feature extractors for mammography, but their robustness under external domain shift remains unclear. We benchmark 15 foundation-model backbones across breast density, BI-RADS severity, and cancer status using a unified frozen-backbone linear-probe protocol, training on 3 source datasets and evaluating on 12 task-compatible out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets after label harmonization. Mammography-specific vision-language models (Mammo-FM and MaMA) provide the strongest mean OOD performance, but robustness is not explained by mammography exposure alone. DINOv3 remains a competitive vision-only baseline, and mammography-adapted pretraining does not consistently improve generalization. Dataset-level analysis further shows that even leading models show heterogeneous performance across datasets. Feature-space inspection reveals that useful representations can preserve clinical signal while retaining dataset and acquisition structure. These findings highlight dataset-level OOD evaluation as a central criterion for assessing mammography representations. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/biomedia-mira/mammo-ood.

Deep neural nets achieve remarkable performance when training and test data share the same distribution, but this assumption frequently breaks in real-world deployment, where data undergoes continual distributional shifts. Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) addresses this challenge by adapting pretrained models to non-stationary target distributions on-the-fly, without access to source data or labeled targets, while mitigating two critical failure modes: catastrophic forgetting of source knowledge and error accumulation from noisy pseudo-labels over extended time horizons. In this comprehensive survey, we formally define the CTTA problem, analyze the diverse continual domain shift patterns that characterize different evaluation protocols, and propose a hierarchical taxonomy that categorizes existing methods into three families: optimization-based strategies (entropy minimization, pseudo-labeling, parameter restoration), parameter-efficient methods (normalization layer adaptation, adaptive parameter selection), and architecture-based approaches (teacher-student frameworks, adapters, visual prompting, masked modeling). We systematically review representative methods within each category and present comparative benchmarks and experimental results across standard evaluation settings. Finally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight emerging research directions, including the adaptation of foundation models and black-box systems, thereby providing a roadmap for future research in robust continual test-time adaptation.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) can model complex joint distributions while supporting exact and efficient computation of many inference queries. However, standard likelihood-based PC learning is vulnerable to overfitting and fragile generalization when confronted with data noise, small sample sizes, or distribution shifts. This can be mitigated using distributionally-robust optimization which consider worst-case distributions within a Wasserstein ball of the empirical distribution, but current methods are limited to training a model from scratch in this framework. Instead, we propose PeTeR: a novel, data-free post-training framework designed to robustify pre-trained PCs against distribution shifts without retraining from scratch. Empirical evaluations across multiple density estimation benchmarks demonstrate that PeTeR effectively robustifies baseline models against both random and adversarial perturbations, achieving competitive or superior performance to data-dependent robust learning baselines.

Real-world data distributions evolve over time, inducing temporal distribution shift that can substantially degrade the reliability of deployed machine learning systems. However, the extent to which architectural choices and their associated inductive biases affect temporal robustness remains insufficiently understood. We present a systematic empirical comparison of temporal robustness across three heterogeneous, time-indexed domains encompassing image classification, multi-label text classification, and text regression tasks. Using a unified evaluation framework based on temporal drift matrices, we train models on cumulative historical data and evaluate their performance on both earlier and later time periods, thereby quantifying cross-temporal generalization. Our study spans model families ranging from simple multilayer perceptrons and convolutional networks to recurrent networks and pretrained Transformer-based encoders. Collectively, the results show that architectural inductive biases systematically shape temporal robustness: models whose inductive biases lead them to exploit localized, highly discriminative features attain the highest in-distribution accuracy, yet those features are often the ones that change most over time, so these models degrade fastest, while pretrained encoders that draw on coarser, more stable representations drift more gradually. These observations offer practical guidance for selecting architectures for real-world systems subject to temporal drift.

Deep-learning-based climate downscaling aims to learn relationships from historical low-resolution (LR) and high-resolution (HR) climate data to generate HR climate projections. However, this setting faces a temporal out-of-distribution (OOD) challenge: models trained on historical data are commonly applied to future projections whose distributions may differ substantially from the training period. This study investigates temporal OOD shift for daily temperature downscaling over the Continental United States using paired LR-HR model simulations. We propose a temporal domain-adaptive downscaling framework that combines supervised HR reconstruction on historical data with domain alignment between historical and future climate distributions. Experiments across future validation periods show that the proposed domain-adaptive model consistently outperforms statistical and deep-learning-based bias-correction methods, with the largest gains occurring when the temporal distribution shift is strongest. Spatial analyses indicate stronger improvements over high-elevation and topographically complex regions, along with higher spatiotemporal correlation with the HR target. The extreme analysis shows that domain adaptation also reduces upper-tail temperature bias relative to the non-adaptive model. These results demonstrate that temporal domain adaptation can improve the robustness of HR climate projections under non-stationary climate conditions.

How robust and generalisable are pathology foundation models and have their scaling limites been reached? We benchmarked twelve pathology foundation models (PFMs) and ResNet baselines using our Robustness Evaluation and Enhancement Toolbox (REET) across eleven clinically realistic perturbations and a dissimilarity-driven Non-Redundant K-fold validation (NR-Kfold) protocol. We introduce a Perturbation Performance Index (PPI) to summarise accuracy trends under controlled perturbation sweeps and analyse robustness scaling with parameter count. We show that PFMs consistently outperform CNNs in both robustness and domain generalisation, yet model scaling shows diminishing returns: mid-sized models such (UNI2/Virchow-2 etc.) achieve comparable or greater resilience than larger systems. NR-Kfold analysis further reveals systematic accuracy loss and increased variability when training-test similarity is broken, underscoring the need for explicit distribution-shift evaluation. These findings suggest that the next generation of pathology foundation models must prioritise data quality, multimodality information and domain alignment over parameter count to achieve genuine clinical reliability.

Bayes-assisted conformal prediction combines the strengths of Bayesian modelling with exact, distribution-free frequentist coverage guarantees. Although conformal validity is preserved even when the Bayesian working model (BWM) is misspecified, the size of the resulting prediction sets can degrade substantially when the prior is poorly aligned with the observed data. We address this limitation by introducing RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage): a Bayes-assisted framework for constructing robust nonconformity scores, with two instantiations: one induced by a heavy-tailed BWM, and a closed-form empirical Bayes shrinkage score. The resulting scores adapt to the quality of the working information encoded in the prior: when this information is reliable, they exploit it to produce efficient prediction sets; when it is weak or inaccurate, they revert to the Distance-To-Average (DTA) score, a robust non-informative baseline. We evaluate the proposed scores on tabular and image regression tasks where the training distribution may differ from the calibration and test distributions, while the calibration and test data themselves remain exchangeable. We find that they are competitive with widely used scores in the absence of such shift, while substantially reducing interval widths in shifted settings.

A central goal of current Spiking Neural Network (SNN) research is to improve their accuracy toward becoming low-power alternatives to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This work further argues that realizing this ambition requires improving not only accuracy but also robustness, defined as the ability to maintain correct predictions under input perturbations. We identify two key issues in existing SNN methods that undermine robustness. First, binary spiking activations can produce large activation-state changes under small perturbations. Second, the lack of effective weight constraints makes network outputs more sensitive to input variations. To this end, we propose Burst Spiking Neural Networks (BuSNNs), built upon Burst-enhanced Spiking Neurons (BSNs) and a Dynamic Weight Constraint (DWC) mechanism. BSNs incorporate burst firing to provide a graded spiking pattern. This spiking mechanism mitigates perturbation-induced transitions in activation states and thereby enhances robustness. DWC penalizes connection weights based on activation states, effectively reducing weight magnitudes and improving robustness while preserving accuracy. We provide theoretical analyses to support these robustness effects. Experimental results further show that, on smaller-scale benchmarks such as CIFAR-10, BuSNNs outperform both SNN and ANN counterparts in accuracy and robustness. On large-scale ImageNet, BuSNN with the MS ResNet-34 backbone further improves top-1 accuracy and corruption robustness over the corresponding SNN baseline by 3.18% and 2.66%, respectively. Despite using spike-based activations, BuSNNs surpass 4-bit activation-quantized ANN baselines and approach 8-bit ANN baselines on ImageNet. They also preserve SNNs' low-power advantage. This work studies the accuracy-robustness problem in SNNs, advancing their practical viability in robust and energy-efficient applications.

Recent AI-generated text detection work often introduces a new benchmark together with a specialized detector tailored to it. We revisit this practice from a baseline-first perspective. Across several benchmarks, we show that a plain, fully fine-tuned RoBERTa matches or exceeds the specialized detectors those benchmarks are built around. This suggests that much of the recent architectural complexity is not what drives strong in-distribution detection. The remaining challenge is the distribution shift. The same strong baseline degrades sharply when the topic domain or generating model changes at test time, and simply adding more source data does not close the gap. We identify a key failure mode: under distribution shift, the detector can assign high-confidence machine labels to human-written text from unseen domains. We then study two lightweight domain adaptation methods to address this problem: $K$-shot adaptation with first-order MAML over LoRA adapters, and a per-sample confidence-weighted ensemble built on top of the adapted detector. Overall, our results suggest that progress in AI-generated text detection should be measured not only by in-distribution performance, but also by robustness under distribution shift.

Origin-destination (OD) flow prediction is central to urban analytics, yet deep models trained on raw counts remain vulnerable to distribution shift. The core problem is that raw count supervision cannot distinguish transferable choice mechanisms from environment-specific shortcuts. Raw OD count mixes two objects: how much demand an origin produces and how that demand is allocated across destinations. We argue that the transferable object is the exposure-to-choice law that maps spatial conditions to relative destination preferences. We propose OpFlow, a mechanism-constrained framework that learns row-centered choice potentials and reconstructs flows by combining the induced allocation with a separately calibrated origin scale. Under distribution shift, spatial exposures and the induced allocations are allowed to vary; what transfers is the conditional map from exposure states to relative choice potentials. Theoretically, we characterize the identifiable row-centered potential and show that classical spatial interaction laws are restricted log-potential cases. Controlled synthetic shifts and a real-world experiment show OpFlow improves robustness under environment shifts.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) are strong backbones for semantic segmentation, but their computational cost limits deployment. Recent token compression methods for efficient transformer-based segmentation reduce this cost by decreasing the number of tokens. However, existing evaluations primarily focus on low-to-moderate compression, leaving their behavior under aggressive compression and corrupted inputs unclear. Meanwhile, structural pruning provides an orthogonal route to efficiency by removing redundant components in the ViT architecture, but is rarely compared to token compression under a unified protocol. To bridge this gap, we benchmark representative token compression and structural pruning methods for ViT-based semantic segmentation under matched FLOPs on ADE20K and Cityscapes, together with their common-corruption variants ADE20K-C and Cityscapes-C. Our results reveal a consistent trend on both clean and corrupted inputs: token compression is highly effective at mild reductions but degrades sharply when compression becomes severe, consistent with substantial information loss from overly aggressive token reduction. In contrast, structural pruning exhibits a smoother degradation curve and is more stable at high compression. Motivated by these findings, we study a prune-then-merge pipeline that applies moderate token compression on top of a moderately pruned backbone. At comparable FLOPs, this combined strategy consistently achieves a better accuracy-robustness trade-off at high compression, offering a practical recipe for deployment-oriented ViT segmentation. Code is available at https://github.com/phatnguyencs/vit-seg-compression.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) seeks to improve model robustness under distribution shifts by adapting parameters using unlabeled target data. However, in the absence of supervision, entropy-based adaptation is fundamentally underconstrained: multiple distinct parameter updates can achieve similarly low entropy while inducing drastically different decision boundaries. This phenomenon, known as underspecification, renders standard TTA brittle and prone to collapse into spurious modes. In this work, we reinterpret TTA through a posterior-inspired lens induced by entropy minimization, where low-entropy solutions define a pseudo-likelihood over parameters. Instead of committing to a single point estimate, we introduce a particle-based diversification framework that explores multiple plausible adaptation trajectories simultaneously. Our method can be viewed as a structured exploration of multiple plausible adaptation solutions, implemented through multi-level diversification at the output, parameter, optimizer, and input levels. Crucially, the framework acts as a plug-and-play wrapper compatible with existing TTA methods. Extensive experiments on challenging benchmarks demonstrate consistent gains in stability and robustness, achieving improvements of 3-4% under mixed shifts, 2-3% with batch size one, and 1-2.5% under label shifts, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Our results suggest that treating TTA as a multi-hypothesis inference problem, rather than a single-point optimization task, is key to mitigating underspecification and enabling reliable real-world deployment.

Automated Heuristic Design (AHD) with Large Language Models (LLMs) has shown remarkable progress in discovering high-quality heuristics. However, existing LLM-based AHD methods optimize heuristics for a fixed training instance set and may fail catastrophically when deployed under real-world distributional shifts. We propose Robust Adversary Instance Search (RAISE), a framework that integrates constrained worst-case instance search within a principled neighborhood of the training distribution into the LLM-based evolutionary search loop. RAISE treats robust AHD as a constrained adversarial instance search problem: the outer loop evolves heuristics via LLM operators, while an LLM-free inner loop efficiently identifies hard instances within an epsilon-ball around the training instance set using a basis distribution parameterization with boundary projection. Comprehensive experiments on Online Bin Packing (OBP), Online Job Shop Scheduling (OJSP), and Online Vehicle Routing (OVRP) across five distribution families demonstrate that existing LLM-based AHD methods degrade by up to 19 times under distribution shift, while RAISE consistently maintains strong performance across all tested distributions and problem scales

This paper presents a safety-centered empirical evaluation of uncertainty-aware last-layer adaptation for referable diabetic retinopathy screening using RETFound, a self-supervised vision-transformer retinal foundation model used here as a frozen feature encoder, and the public APTOS 2019 and DDR diabetic retinopathy fundus image datasets. We compare a cached-feature softmax head, post-hoc temperature scaling, variational Bayesian last-layer heads, a diagonal Laplace last-layer approximation, and an SNGP-style cached-feature head. On APTOS, uncertainty-aware operating points improved sensitivity and selective-referral behavior. The strongest APTOS selective-referral result deferred approximately 20 percent of cases and reduced accepted-case false negatives to zero while preserving high accepted-case specificity. However, threshold tuning also reduced false negatives at high false-positive cost, so false-negative reduction alone was not unique to Bayesian modeling. On DDR, native Bayesian heads qualitatively reproduced the APTOS direction but with weaker tradeoffs, while the APTOS-trained SNGP checkpoint transferred poorly and failed to provide useful external selective-referral behavior. These results highlight the value of safety-centered evaluation beyond aggregate accuracy: uncertainty-aware last-layer heads can improve internal safety-oriented operating points, but trustworthy retinal screening claims require explicit safety-coverage evaluation and second-dataset validation under shift.

Visual classifiers can achieve high matched-distribution accuracy while relying on low-level cues that fail under conflict or suppression. We test whether this failure is shaped by early cue precision: the reliability with which a low-level cue predicts the label during early learning or downstream probe fitting. Across synthetic shape-texture tasks, sequential digit training, a 10-class frozen-representation audit, and a CIFAR-10 natural-image-based texture-overlay benchmark, we manipulate object-texture match probability and evaluate matched-ID accuracy, conflict accuracy, texture-choice rate, and suppression behavior. Degraded-but-predictive input does not substitute for cue decorrelation. In 10-class digit probes, conflict accuracy drops from 0.589 under chance-like cue precision to 0.005 under target-perfect texture. In CIFAR-10 frozen probes, conflict accuracy drops from 0.569 to 0.114, while texture choice rises from 0.049 to 0.855; this ordering persists across texture-overlay strengths alpha in {0.15,0.25,0.35,0.50}. End-to-end CIFAR-10 training shows that low early cue precision improves pre-target conflict behavior, but shortcut-rich fine-tuning can rapidly overwrite this benefit. Cue decorrelation must therefore be maintained during downstream adaptation rather than treated as a one-time inoculation.

Learned reconstruction operators for inverse problems are typically trained under a fixed noise model, and generalize poorly when the distribution during testing differs from the one assumed during training. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) addresses this by optimizing against the worst-case distribution within a prescribed ambiguity set, but standard Wasserstein DRO perturbs the full joint distribution uniformly, which can be overly conservative and ignores the physics of the measurement process. We develop a structured DRO framework in which the ambiguity set is restricted to structured perturbations aligned with the data-acquisition process. This allows us to learn data-driven reconstruction operators that remain robust to distributional shifts. By constraining perturbations to subsets such as $P(Y|X)$, our framework models uncertainty in the forward operator and noise model more faithfully, accommodating any noise model expressible as a stochastic forward operator. We establish strong duality for this general formulation and derive explicit finite-dimensional dual representations for perturbations in the joint, marginal, and conditional distributions. A central result is an explicit worst-case risk bound that induces Tikhonov regularization on the Lipschitz constant of the reconstruction operator, and is less conservative relative to standard DRO for well-posed problems. Numerical experiments on deblurring and sinogram-to-CT reconstruction demonstrate improved robustness, stability, and interpretability over standard DRO and MSE baselines. In the linear setting, the learned operator becomes effectively low-rank, truncating at the intrinsic dimension of the data and recovering a data-driven analogue of truncated-SVD regularization.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) methods commonly update the affine parameters of normalization layers to adapt deployed models under distribution shifts. However, per-channel affine parameters perform axis-aligned scaling and shifting, making them geometrically incapable of correcting cross-channel structural changes induced by distribution shift. To address this limitation, we propose MixTTA, a lightweight plug-in module that equips normalization layers with a low-rank cross-channel transformation, enabling inter-channel mixing at each layer. To ensure that the low-rank branch captures only cross-channel interactions, we also propose Decoupling Projection that enforces strict separation from the diagonal affine path, along with Spectral Projection that prevents rank-1 collapse under non-stationary test streams. MixTTA can be seamlessly integrated into any existing normalization-based TTA method. Experiments in both standard and wild TTA settings show consistent improvements over strong baselines while mitigating adaptation failure under challenging conditions. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/delta6189/MixTTA.

In real-world deployments, scene text detectors inevitably face distribution shifts beyond the training distribution. Prior work often depends on large-scale scene-text pretraining, yet evaluation under cross-domain changes and real-world imaging degradations remains limited. We propose TextDS, an efficient framework for scene text detection under distribution shifts. First, we propose a data-efficient dual-encoder design with visual foundation models, eliminating the reliance on large-scale scene-text pretraining. Second, we introduce Step-wise LoRA adaptation (SWLoRA), which performs progressive low-rank refinement with a dynamic early-exit mechanism for effective feature adaptation. Third, we propose Common Subspace Fusion (CSF) to align and fuse the two branches in a shared subspace while retaining complementary, shift-robust information. Finally, we construct adverse-condition scene text detection datasets to address the gap in evaluating under imaging degradation. Experiments show that TextDS achieves competitive performance in scene text detection, demonstrating robustness across domains and adverse imaging conditions with only 4.9M trainable parameters.

Accurate seedling detection during early growth stages is essential for timely replanting and effective crop management in precision agriculture. However, existing studies are mostly evaluated under relatively stable imaging conditions, such as UAV imagery or greenhouse environments, leaving robust detection under severe and spatially heterogeneous illumination in ground-based outdoor monitoring insufficiently explored. In addition, many illumination-robust detection methods rely on additional enhancement or feature-extraction modules, which increase inference-time overhead and are not tailored to seedling detection and downstream missing seedling localization. To address these gaps, we construct a new garlic seedling dataset captured using a ground-based monitoring platform under real outdoor field conditions with highly variable illumination. We further propose an illumination-robust seedling detection framework based on adversarial augmentation policy learning. The proposed method jointly optimizes a stochastic augmentation policy agent and an object detector, enabling the detector to learn robust representations under challenging visual conditions. A structural penalty is introduced to prevent unrealistic distortions while encouraging challenging augmentations during training. Extensive experiments show that the proposed approach achieves an AP$_{50}$ of 91.6%, improving the baseline by 0.9 percentage points and outperforming the previous best-performing method by 0.2 percentage points. For downstream missing seedling localization, it achieves 75.0% precision and a 67.0% F1-score, improving the baseline by 4.8 and 2.0 percentage points, respectively. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for practical ground-based agricultural monitoring under complex outdoor lighting conditions without additional inference-time computational overhead.

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation problems. In them, a model is trained on labeled data but must adapt to unlabeled data at test time under the assumption that training and test distributions potentially differ, that is, there might have been a distributional shift. The framework is based on a state-space modelling architecture from which parameter learning, parameter time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction can be characterized.

Pre-trained transformers have demonstrated remarkable generalization abilities, at times extending beyond the scope of their training data. Yet, real-world deployments often face unexpected or adversarial data that diverges from training data distributions. Without explicit mechanisms for handling such shifts, model reliability and safety degrade, urging more disciplined study of out-of-distribution (OOD) settings for transformers. By systematic experiments, we present a mechanistic framework for delineating the precise contours of transformer model robustness. We find that OOD inputs, including subtle typos and jailbreak prompts, drive language models to operate on an increased number of fallacious concepts in their internals. We leverage this device to quantify and understand the degree of distributional shift in prompts, enabling a mechanistically grounded fine-tuning strategy to robustify LLMs. Expanding the very notion of OOD from input data to a model's private computational processes, a new transformer diagnostic at inference time is a critical step toward making AI systems safe for deployment across science, business, and government.

While the field of Human Activity Recognition (HAR) continues to draw interest from researchers and advance in important ways, some key challenges remain. One of the most difficult aspects of building HAR models that show good performance in real-world settings is dealing with data diversity from device and sensor heterogeneity, and contextual changes that are intrinsic to real-world applications. While data diversity in HAR has been well-acknowledged in the literature, there remains a gap in understanding the effect of various types of distribution shifts on HAR models and the domain generalization problem that arises. Towards that end, this paper systematically evaluates 4 different types of distribution shifts, including variations in device type, sensor placement, sampling rate, and user behavior. Quantifying their effects, we illustrate that diversity shifts predominantly define all types of shifts, indicating the existence of unique features that are not shared across different domains. We then introduce a uniform HAR-based distribution shift benchmarks and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of up to 28 domain generalization methods. Our analysis exposes the limitations of current domain generalization algorithms in achieving model generalizability, marginally outperforming the empirical risk minimization baseline. This work represents the first systematic exploration of domain generalization and adaptation concerning specific distribution shifts in sensor-based HAR, offering an open-source benchmark platform and datasets to spur further research.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) achieve strong performance on microbiome abundance data, yet their robustness under realistic distribution shift remains poorly characterized. We introduce a benchmark that evaluates the robustness of TFMs to biologically inspired perturbations across six gut microbiome datasets spanning four disease contexts. In this in-context learning setting, models receive unperturbed support sets as context and are evaluated on perturbed query samples. To isolate robustness beyond "shortcut" features, we preserve the most discriminative taxa and apply three controlled perturbation strategies: (i) removal of high-abundance (uninformative) taxa, (ii) sparsification via increased zero-inflation, and (iii) zero-imputation via spurious non-zero injections. Our results show that protecting discriminative features is insufficient to guarantee stability under support-query shift: across datasets, all perturbations degrade model performance, with zero-imputation consistently the most harmful, indicating that corrupting global feature structure can break generalization even when key taxa are retained. Sparsification disproportionately affects TFMs relative to a classical random forest baseline, suggesting greater sensitivity to zero-inflation-type shifts. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/UMMISCO/metagenomics-fm/.

Automated cattle posture-classification systems frequently report near-perfect accuracy, yet their robustness under realistic deployment conditions remains largely unknown. In particular, it is unclear whether multimodal sensor fusion improves generalisation or leads models to rely on context-specific signals that fail under distribution shift. Here, we evaluate the robustness of automated posture classification (lying versus standing) using collar accelerometers, rumen-bolus sensors, and environmental measurements collected from a pasture-based beef cattle herd across two consecutive years (2024-2025). XGBoost served as the primary model, with Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory networks evaluated as comparative baselines. Model robustness was assessed under progressively more stringent evaluation protocols, ranging from conventional random train-test splits to leave-one-animal-out validation and cross-year evaluation on an independent cohort of previously unseen animals recorded one year later. While multimodal models achieved strong within-year performance (macro-F1 0.94), the performance declined substantially under cross-year evaluation (macro-F1 0.49). Explainability analysis revealed persistent reliance on rumen-bolus activity and environmental variables even when predictive performance deteriorated. Distribution-shift diagnostics further confirmed substantial differences in feature distributions between recording years. Our findings demonstrate that commonly used evaluation protocols can substantially overestimate real-world performance and that multimodal sensor fusion may reduce, rather than improve, robustness under temporal distribution shift. More broadly, the results highlight that benchmark accuracy alone is insufficient to assess deployment readiness and underscore the need for robustness-centred evaluation in livestock-monitoring research.

Sign language models are typically trained on datasets captured under constrained conditions, with limited viewpoint, background, and signer-identity diversity, leading to poor robustness under real-world distribution shifts. We introduce SignNet-1M, a large-scale augmented dataset spanning ASL, CSL, and German Sign Language (DGS). SignNet-1M synthesizes realistic variations along three axes: (i) novel-view rendering (rotation and zoom) via 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), (ii) scene/identity editing via diffusion models for background replacement and signer substitution while preserving sign motion and linguistic content, and (iii) post-rendering augmentations that emulate capture and compression artifacts (e.g., pose/temporal perturbations and video-level corruptions) to better match in-the-wild recordings. Beyond data release, we provide a unified benchmark suite across downstream tasks (e.g., translation and recognition) and ablations that isolate each augmentation component. Experiments across backbones show that training with SignNet-1M consistently improves generalization under cross-view, cross-background, cross-identity, and post-rendering shifts, while maintaining strong in-distribution performance. The dataset, full augmentation pipeline, and benchmark are available at https://signnet.chatsign.ai/.

Pretrained vision models often misclassify inputs that are rotated, scaled, or sheared, even though these affine transformations leave the object class unchanged. Robustness is usually restored either by building equivariance into the architecture or by retraining with augmentation, both of which require changing or retraining the model. Test-time canonicalization instead leaves the classifier untouched. It undoes the transformation of each input, mapping it to a canonical form near the training distribution before classification. Existing canonicalizers, however, rely on a narrow set of logit-based energy scores and bespoke search procedures, leaving the design space of scoring functions and optimizers unexplored. We reframe canonicalization as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, which lets any OOD score serve as the energy minimized over transformations. Across benchmarks ranging from handwritten characters and sketches to natural images and 3D point clouds, we systematically evaluate around twenty OOD scores and nine search algorithms, finding that distance-based scores paired with random search and local refinement perform best overall. Because canonicalizing an already-aligned input can hurt accuracy, we add a gated mechanism that transforms an input only when its OOD score indicates this is needed, preserving most in-distribution accuracy while retaining the robustness gains on transformed inputs. Code is available at github.com/johschm/its.

As multimodal agents move from interface understanding to real software control, successful trajectory discovery in live desktop environments becomes a key challenge. GUI tasks require long-horizon sequences of precise mouse and keyboard actions, while feedback is sparse, delayed, and costly to obtain through VM rollouts. We propose Environment-Native Verified Search (ENVS), a training-time search-and-filter pipeline that uses the environment to construct verified supervision before policy optimization: it branches over behaviorally distinct GUI actions in live OSWorld VMs, verifies successful leaves, and trains from globally balanced step-level supervision. To evaluate robustness under realistic desktop interruptions, we also introduce OSWorld-Noisy, a dynamic benchmark for recoverable desktop interruptions that preserves the original tasks while testing whether agents can refocus, dismiss, wait, or recover under live perturbations. On the 300-task OSWorld pool, ENVS reaches 30.3 pass@8 on original evaluations and 29.0 on OSWorld-Noisy, outperforming matched ARPO-style online RL while reducing compute from 184-192 to 138-153 GPU-hours; even with only 30% of its search data, ENVS reaches 27.0 pass@8, exceeding ARPO from the base model. Training from noisy environments also better preserves visual-reasoning abilities on auxiliary benchmarks, including OSWorld-G Refusal (16.7 vs. 1.9) and BLINK Functional Correspondence (26.2 vs. 23.1).

Distribution shift between training and deployment is a pervasive challenge for modern AI systems. In many cases, the target marginals of covariates and response are known or specified through population-level observations, boundary conditions, properties of simulator configurations, or alignment-time distributional constraints. Such knowledge may provide valuable side information for regression estimation. We study this problem in the multivariate linear regression setting with a stable conditional mean $E[Y\mid X]$ across source and target, and identify the hybrid-loss estimator, which jointly incorporates both target marginals, as a benchmark target-aware estimator. Its direct computation, however, requires solving a coupled nonlinear optimization that is expensive at scale. Our main contribution is to develop and evaluate two computationally tractable alternatives: a constrained moment-matching estimator and a two-stage estimator that augments ordinary least squares with a calibration step. For all three estimators, we derive and compare closed-form asymptotic mean squared errors, yielding conditions under which the tractable alternatives match or closely approximate the hybrid benchmark, and regimes in which they do not. Monte Carlo experiments across three controlled shift regimes validate the theoretical results, investigate the accuracy-runtime tradeoffs among the three estimators, and translate into guidance on estimator choice. In particular, the two-stage estimator nearly matches the hybrid benchmark in the high signal-to-noise regime at essentially no additional cost, providing theoretical grounding for empirical observations in nonlinear settings.