Event Time Prediction

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Overview

Event time prediction studies when an event is likely to happen, from the next interaction in a network to a clinical milestone or equipment failure, helping people plan and intervene. Common approaches include survival models, temporal point processes such as Hawkes models, and sequence or Transformer models that combine event histories with contextual data; some also predict event type and timing jointly. Researchers evaluate these methods on settings such as electronic health records, business processes, transportation, and sensor data, using measures of timing error, ranking, and probabilistic calibration. A central challenge is that event times can be irregular, censored, heavy-tailed, or inherently uncertain, and complex models do not always outperform simpler baselines or generalize across settings.

Latest papers

CardsList

47 papers6 papers in the last four weeks, up 20% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. GLIDE: Graph-guided Leap Inference for Diffusion Estimation of Spatio-Temporal Point Processes

    May 31, 2026Guanyu Zhou, Yao Liu, Yanglei Gan +5Event Time PredictionTemporal Point Processes

    University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China

  2. UME: A Unified Meta-Generalization Framework for Cross-Domain ETA

    May 31, 2026Duo Wang, Qiong Wu, Jianguo Wu +9Event Time PredictionMeta-Learning

    Peking University · Meituan

  3. Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence

    May 21, 2026Sean Wu, Pan Lu, Yupeng Chen +7Event Time PredictionScientific Discovery

    University of Oxford · Stanford University · Allen Institute for AI +1

  4. HEPA: A Self-Supervised Horizon-Conditioned Event Predictive Architecture for Time Series

    May 11, 2026Jonas Petersen, Gian-Alessandro Lombardi, Riccardo Maggioni +3Event Time PredictionSelf-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning

    1ETH Zurich · 2Forgis · University of Vienna

  5. Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series

    May 6, 2026Ivica Dimitrovski, Ivan Kitanovski, Danco Davcev +2Event Time PredictionTime Series Forecasting

    Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering University Ss Cyril and Methodius Skopje 1000, North Macedonia

  6. Forecasting Source Stability in Scientific Experiments using Temporal Learning Models: A Case Study from Tritium Monitoring

    May 2, 2026Nicholas Tan Jerome, Nadia Aouadi, Christoph Koehler +2Event Time PredictionLong-Term Time Series Forecasting

    Institute for Data Processing and Electronics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Schmalkalden University of Applied Sciences, Schmalkalden, Germany · Technical University Munich, Garching, Germany +1

  7. Towards Event-Aware Forecasting in DeFi: Insights from On-chain Automated Market Maker Protocols

    Apr 22, 2026Huaiyu Jia, Jiehshun You, Yizhi Luo +2Event Time PredictionTemporal Point Processes

    HKUST(GZ) · GUANGZHOU, China · Hong Kong Polytechnic University +1

  8. EVIL: Evolving Interpretable Algorithms for Zero-Shot Inference on Event Sequences and Time Series with LLMs

    Apr 17, 2026David BerghausEvent Time PredictionTime Series Imputation

    Lamarr Institute · Fraunhofer IAIS

  9. FlatASCEND: Autoregressive Clinical Sequence Generation with Continuous Time Prediction and Association-Based Pharmacological Testing

    Apr 13, 2026Chris Sainsbury, Feng Dong, Andreas KarwathAutoregressive GenerationLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    School of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, UK · School of Medicine, University of Dundee, UK · NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, UK +2

  10. Transformer-Based Predictive Maintenance for Risk-Aware Instrument Calibration

    Mar 19, 2026Adithya Parthasarathy, Aswathnarayan Muthukrishnan Kirubakaran, Akshay Deshpande +5Predictive MaintenanceEvent Time Prediction

  11. Stochastic Event Prediction via Temporal Motif Transitions

    Mar 6, 2026İbrahim Bahadır Altun, Ahmet Erdem SarıyüceTemporal Link PredictionNext-Event Prediction

    University at Buffalo

  12. Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Claim Duration in a Work Injury Compensation Environment

    Feb 17, 2026Anthony AlmudevarEvent Time Prediction

    Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York

  13. Capture Timing-Attention of Events in Clinical Time Series

    Feb 11, 2026Jia Li, Yu Hou, Rui ZhangEvent Time PredictionHealthcare

    Department of Surgery; Department of Computer Science, U of M Minneapolis, MN, USA

  14. Probabilistic Multi-Agent Aircraft Landing Time Prediction

    Dec 9, 2025Kyungmin Kim, Seokbin Yoon, Keumjin LeeEvent Time PredictionAir Traffic Management

    Korea Aerospace University, Goyang, 10540, South Korea

  15. State-Change Learning for Prediction of Future Events in Endoscopic Videos

    Oct 14, 2025Saurav Sharma, Chinedu Innocent Nwoye, Didier Mutter +1Event Time PredictionSurgical Video Understanding

    University of Strasbourg, CNRS, INSERM, ICube, UMR7357, France · IHU Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France · University Hospital of Strasbourg, France

  16. Edge Selection for the Effective use of Piecewise-Constant Distributions as Neural Network Outputs for Event Prediction

    Jul 29, 2025Kevin Doran, Tom BadenEvent Time PredictionProbabilistic Forecasting

    School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, UK · School of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, UK · Institute of Ophthalmic Research, University of Tübingen, Germany

  17. Predicting Estimated Times of Restoration for Electrical Outages Using Longitudinal Tabular Transformers

    May 1, 2025Bogireddy Sai Prasanna Teja, Valliappan Muthukaruppan, Carls BenjaminEvent Time PredictionTransformer

    Exelon Corporation, Chicago, IL, USA