Financial Sentiment Analysis

Financial language models can transform unstructured firm-specific news into structured decision signals, but financial AI research lacks an integrated deployment framework for evaluating whether those signals remain useful in financial decision systems. Computer science research has developed strong methods for time-series forecasting, text classification, multimodal stock prediction, graph-based market modeling, and machine-learning operations, yet these streams do not provide a domain-specific protocol that jointly tests financial language-model outputs under event-time observability, probability calibration, execution timing, transaction costs, liquidity constraints, capacity limits, operational diagnostics, and statistical inference. We introduce MFAST, a Market-Friction-Aware Sentiment-to-Trading framework that converts timestamped financial text into auditable, reproducible, and market-feasible trading decisions. The application is news-based trading, where firm-specific text must be linked to securities before portfolio decisions can be evaluated. The framework links Refinitiv News Analytics to Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) equity data, restricts the primary out-of-sample evaluation to post-release news outside disclosed foundation-model data-freshness periods, and adds a public replication arm using open financial text and public price data. Results show that decoder-only language models outperform encoder baselines and dictionary sentiment in classification, calibration, return prediction, and net portfolio performance, while operational diagnostics reveal trade-offs among accuracy, latency, memory, throughput, and inference cost. The paper shows that credible evaluation of financial language models requires an end-to-end engineering approach combining language understanding, temporal discipline, market-friction-aware deployment, and reproducible validation.

Financial NLP has a standard workflow: validate a sentiment tool against human labels, then trust it to extract market signal. This assumes the two evaluations measure the same thing. We test that assumption in a setting where both can be measured at once: a corpus of securities class actions (2002-2025) linking 70,500 X messages to abnormal stock returns, with a single-annotator human labelled gold sample. Running five instruments (VADER, Loughran-McDonald, FinBERT, Twitter-RoBERTa, and an LLM annotator) through one identical pipeline, we find that the relationship between construct and predictive validity depends on the sampling convention and score representation. Under conventional method-specific sampling, human agreement aligns more closely with graded same-day associations than with one-day leads. On a fixed-n panel, however, agreement has similar graded rank correlations at both horizons, while the coarse ordering remains weak. Benchmark agreement therefore establishes semantic validity but does not by itself determine predictive rankings. In a conversation that is 17.6% spam, message volume predicts neither market damage nor settlement size.

Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk -- decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic components -- directly into the covariance matrix of portfolio allocators, rather than treating portfolio risk as fixed or adjusting only expected returns. We evaluate the pipeline on Russell 2000 equities under three stock-selection regimes: a pure-alpha trigger that isolates abnormal stock moves not explained by macro indicators, a pure-beta trigger that captures macro-indicator moves before the stock itself fires, and a beta trigger in which both channels agree. Across the full holding-period grid, the separated pure-alpha and pure-beta legs usually dominate the beta intersection on Sharpe and return. Two horizons are especially informative. At one day, pure beta can work under low and moderate transaction costs because it captures immediate lead-lag spillovers from liquid macro and sector indicators into exposed small-cap stocks, but this advantage disappears at 100 bps when turnover and microstructure noise dominate. At 40 days, pure beta works for a different reason: slower macro repricing overtakes the firm-specific pure-alpha channel. The strongest conservative row is pure beta with GPT-4o mini sentiment, a Student-t target, a 40-day holding period, and risk parity allocation, reaching Sharpe 2.33 at 100 bps. The results suggest that stock-selection regime and allocator choice matter at least as much as the sentiment model, and that separating firm-specific and macro-exposure triggers is more informative than requiring both to fire simultaneously.

Financial text is produced and interpreted within a market environment, yet financial text classifiers almost always receive text alone. We study whether financial time series are useful as an additional input on the task of classifying sentences from Federal Reserve communication as hawkish, dovish, or neutral. Our system, \lfts{}, extends the \lf{} architecture with this modality: a small voting network combines three independently trained components, a fine-tuned RoBERTa encoder, a prompted large language model (LLM), and a fused ensemble of time-series transformers over the market series of the months preceding publication. Because only about a thousand annotated sentences are available for training, the RoBERTa encoder is first pre-trained on sentences annotated automatically by the LLM and only then fine-tuned on the human labels. Trained on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication up to 2015 and evaluated on 2015--2022, the fused system achieves 70.2% weighted F1 -- against 64.1% for the zero-shot LLM -- and overtakes it with as few as 240 human-labelled sentences. We take this as initial evidence for market time series as an input modality in financial text classification.

Financial sentiment analysis converts unstructured financial news into quantitative signals that can support market analysis and decision-making. Existing work on resource-efficient financial NLP has largely focused on compressing or adapting pretrained language models, with less attention to combining contextual representations with lightweight rule-derived features. This study develops Rule-Aware FinBERT (RA-FinBERT), a parameter-efficient framework that integrates low-rank adaptation (LoRA) with three continuous VADER-derived sentiment proportions (positive, negative, and neutral) and a source-level metadata feature. The standardized four-dimensional feature vector is directly concatenated with the 768-dimensional final-layer FinBERT [CLS] representation and passed through a lightweight classification head. This design introduces only 1,024 additional trainable weights relative to a structurally matched text-only FinBERT model. RA-FinBERT was evaluated against text-only FinBERT and a lightweight DistilBERT baseline for three-class sentiment classification of financial-news titles and descriptions. On the held-out test set, RA-FinBERT achieved 69.89% accuracy and a macro F1 score of 0.634, compared with 63.44% and 0.526 for text-only FinBERT. Neutral-class recall increased from 18.18% to 45.45%. The framework supports both CPU and GPU execution, offering a lightweight and practical approach to financial sentiment classification under constrained computational resources. These findings indicate that rule-derived sentiment information and source metadata can provide complementary signals to contextual FinBERT representations and improve performance with minimal additional model complexity.

Quantum natural language processing (QNLP) provides a grammar-aware framework for text modeling, and Distributional Compositional Categorical (DisCoCat) is one of its theoretically grounded formulations. Prior work on financial sentiment analysis has identified practical limitations of DisCoCat, including parser sensitivity, high simulation cost, and difficulty handling longer sentences. We study an LLM-assisted preprocessing workflow that uses controlled rewriting to compress, simplify, or decompose moderate-complexity financial sentiment sentences into parser-compatible, circuit-efficient variants while preserving sentiment-bearing meaning. We compare prompting strategies, language models, and filtering configurations with the low-complexity-only DisCoCat baseline of Stein et al. At the circuit level, the strongest compression variants reduce average qubit and gate counts by more than 70 percent relative to the raw moderate-complexity subset. Across repeated training runs, GPT-4.1-mini with Prompt B achieves the highest observed mean accuracy, $0.550 \pm 0.035$, compared with $0.521 \pm 0.050$ for the baseline. Larger training splits do not necessarily improve downstream performance; across evaluated configurations, training-split size has a moderately negative association with accuracy (Pearson $r=-0.446$). These results provide exploratory evidence that LLM-assisted rewriting can make some moderate-complexity inputs usable within the evaluated DisCoCat configuration, while highlighting prompt design, filtering, and circuit-aware preprocessing as considerations for more scalable QNLP-based financial sentiment analysis.

This paper documents an applied natural-language-processing framework for measuring the tone of Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) statements. The project is explicitly inspired by iSent, Itaú's Central Bank sentiment classifier, particularly its sentence-level division of official communication into hawkish, dovish, neutral, and out-of-context classes. The implementation extends that idea in three directions. First, an LLM identifies short hawkish and dovish expressions and assigns each a 0-to-1 intensity weight. Second, the document index combines sentence counts with document-specific average signal intensities, producing a bounded score from -1 to 1. Third, a separate full-document layer measures forward-guidance direction, guidance explicitness, uncertainty level, and change in uncertainty. The empirical sample is restricted to communications dated August 2016 or later and contains 80 statements and 1,498 classified sentences from August 31, 2016 through August 5, 2026. Across this sample, 33.3% of sentences are hawkish, 18.0% dovish, 42.1% neutral, and 6.5% out of context. The average document score is +0.107, while the most hawkish reading is +0.570 in August 2021. The latest statement, dated August 5, 2026, scores +0.232, with eight hawkish, two dovish, and nine neutral sentences. Its structural overlay is more nuanced: guidance is directionally ambiguous but partly explicit, while uncertainty is classified as central and higher than at the prior meeting. Tone and the guidance-direction score have a contemporaneous Pearson correlation of 0.719. These are descriptive outputs, not a validated forecast of Selic decisions or DI returns. The main contribution is therefore methodological: a transparent, incremental, auditable system that separates rhetorical tone from policy guidance and uncertainty.

Financial sentiment classifiers are commonly evaluated against human labels, but strong linguistic performance does not necessarily imply economically useful return predictability. This study separates these questions through two experiments. First, we construct a unified three-class benchmark from five financial text datasets and compare TF--IDF Naive Bayes, off-the-shelf FinBERT and Financial-RoBERTa encoders, zero-shot Qwen2.5-7B, and QLoRA-adapted Qwen2.5-7B, LLaMA3-8B, and Mistral-7B models. Mistral-7B achieves the best test accuracy (0.8840) and macro-F1 (0.8771), while QLoRA raises Qwen2.5's macro-F1 from 0.7274 to 0.8615. An inverse-frequency class-weighted loss does not improve Qwen2.5. Second, we evaluate economic validity on a temporally separate 2019 Benzinga sample containing 10,637 unique headlines and 13,115 headline--stock observations for a fixed S&P~100 universe. Model probabilities are converted into continuous sentiment scores, aggregated by stock and signal date, and aligned with next-session returns over one-, two-, three-, and five-day horizons. All seven downstream models produce positive but small mean rank information coefficients at the one-day horizon; the largest is 0.0143 for FinBERT. None of the 28 model--horizon tests remains significant after Newey--West inference and false-discovery-rate correction. Portfolio results likewise fail to establish a robust advantage for the best-performing classifiers. The findings show that QLoRA is effective for financial sentiment adaptation, while also documenting a clear gap between classification accuracy and tradable cross-sectional signals.

Financial sentiment analysis has become a standard component in news-driven stock prediction, yet it reduces rich, multi-dimensional news articles to a single polarity score. We hypothesize that financial news encodes multiple orthogonal information dimensions---event type, impact scope, temporal horizon, and semantic confidence---that sentiment alone cannot capture, and that these dimensions carry independent predictive value. To test this hypothesis, we propose a structured information extraction framework that leverages LLaMA-3.1-70B to extract six semantic dimensions from financial news. Through large-scale experiments on 41,618 news--stock pairs from the FNSPID dataset, we find that (i) FinBERT sentiment features exhibit strong predictive power under nonlinear models (F1=0.576) but substantially weaker performance under linear models (F1=0.230), revealing a highly nonlinear sentiment--return relationship; (ii) LLM-extracted structured features, while individually weaker, capture information orthogonal to sentiment, as evidenced by a 53.5% systematic disagreement rate between the two approaches; and (iii) combining both signal sources yields F1=0.600, significantly outperforming either alone ($p < 0.0001$), with consistent improvements across all seven event types. Ablation experiments confirm that non-sentiment structural dimensions (event type, impact subject, time horizon, confidence) independently contribute $Δ\text{F1} = +0.019$ beyond FinBERT alone. Feature importance analysis reveals balanced contributions from all six extracted dimensions (14--21%), demonstrating that compressing news into a single sentiment score incurs substantial information loss. Our results suggest that the sentiment--semantics decoupling in financial text is systematic and exploitable, opening a new direction for multi-dimensional financial NLP.

Recent advances in Generative AI have substantially improved financial sentiment analysis through post-trained financial large language models (LLMs). However, existing approaches remain confined to a market-agnostic, supervised learning paradigm that relies on limited, static and human-annotated datasets, and thus are incapable of adapting to evolving market conditions. To address this limitation, we introduce FinSMART, the first market-aligned reinforcement learning framework for financial sentiment analysis, which directly optimizes sentiment signals using realized market outcomes. To deal with the noisy, non-stationary, and multifactorial nature of financial markets, FinSMART incorporates a signal extraction pipeline that combines market-aware data filtering with a discrete asymmetric trading reward, enabling stable reinforcement learning from economically meaningful market feedback. Experimental results demonstrate that FinSMART significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in profitability, risk-adjusted performance, and sentiment signal quality, improving cumulative trading returns by 220% over the strongest baseline. Uniquely, the FinSMART framework naturally supports market-aware retraining, at any point in time, by replacing costly manual annotation with newly observed financial articles and their realized market outcomes. Such a retraining strategy enables the model to continuously adapt to changing market dynamics, resulting in consistent performance gains over its static counterpart. These findings demonstrate the practical applicability of market-aligned reinforcement learning and highlight its potential as a next-generation paradigm for developing adaptive financial LLMs.

This paper presents an empirical comparison of lexicon-based and Large Language Model (LLM)-based sentiment analysis for extracting market-relevant signals from social media discourse in highly volatile equity markets. Using Reddit data from r/WallStreetBets and focusing on meme stocks (GME, AMC, NOK), we construct time-aligned sentiment indicators and evaluate their relationship with market returns, with particular attention to extreme positive return events in the upper tail of the return distribution. The LLM-based approach generates multidimensional sentiment representations capturing emotional polarity, bullishness, sarcasm likelihood, and topical relevance, whereas the baseline relies on the VADER lexicon-based model. We evaluate both approaches using lead/lag correlation analysis, OLS regression, ROC-AUC-based directional classification, and a quantile-based early-warning framework. The results indicate that LLM-derived indicators provide a richer multidimensional representation and exhibit stronger asset-specific statistical structure than the lexicon-based baseline. However, their relationship with market movements remains heterogeneous across assets, suggesting that increased linguistic expressiveness does not necessarily translate into stable forecasting performance in retail-driven volatility regimes.

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

Production LLM-based financial sentiment analysis faces a structural cost trap: most queries are trivially classifiable, yet expensive cloud reasoners process them all, and the bill scales linearly with user count. We present TriAgent, a multi-agent committee stratified by contextual granularity -- a word-level lexicon (VADER), a sentence-level domain transformer (FinBERT), and a cross-sentence reasoner (Qwen2.5, 0.5B-14B-4bit, with Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5-mini cross-family checks). A three-way Semantic Divergence Index (SDI) measures pairwise disagreement across granularities and routes each query accordingly. Our central finding is the critic plateau: when the LLM is re-tasked as a critic over the smaller agents' outputs, F1 plateaus at ~0.87 across 1.5B-7B Qwen (bootstrap 95% CIs overlap), while a same-size 3-persona vote drops to F1=0.66, which is driven by granularity-stratified diversity. Three corollaries follow from the same SDI signal: (i) a Shared Consensus Dictionary on multilingual sentence-BERT answers 95% of Chinese queries from an English cache at F1=0.99 -- cross-border canonicalization at zero marginal cost; (ii) SDI doubles as a post-hoc LLM-hallucination detector at AUC=0.90; (iii) the SDI single-stage strategy attains the best risk-adjusted return (Sharpe=3.50) on a 20-ticker back-test, dominating both always-FinBERT (1.36) and always-LLM (0.11). At 10M-user scale, TriAgent saves $9.3M/year vs. a GPT-4o-mini baseline. Code, lexicons, and the SCD are released.

Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored. We extend a supervised lexicon-learning approach to 10-K filings and their Item 1A risk-factor sections, training sentiment scores against both return and volatility labels at three levels of aggregation: sector, portfolio, and individual firm. Across 1,383 filings from 94 Nasdaq-100 technology constituents (2006--2023), we evaluate the resulting twelve sentiment metrics on classification accuracy, correlation with realised market outcomes, and qualitative lexical content. Full-filing text produces more accurate sentiment at the sector and portfolio level for both targets, but this reverses at the individual-firm level, where the narrower Item 1A section performs better -- an effect we attribute to the interaction between document volume and the amount of independent training signal available at each level of aggregation. A Loughran-McDonald dictionary baseline is consistently, strongly negatively correlated with price at every level tested, underscoring the value of a supervised approach for regulatory disclosure text. These findings, and the design choices they motivate, establish the sentiment-generation methodology underlying a subsequent, larger-scale, multi-source system.

Earnings announcements release two types of information sequentially: quantitative surprise (numeric earnings-per-share (EPS)/revenue versus analyst estimate) arrives first in press releases and financial news, processed by algorithmic traders within minutes; qualitative language (management tone, guidance, question-and-answer (Q&A) credibility) arrives 30-90 min later in the earnings conference call transcript (ECT), requiring human interpretation overnight. Financial economists have studied quantitative surprise for 50 years; natural language processing (NLP) researchers have studied qualitative ECT signals for a decade. Despite studying the same event, the two communities used incompatible frameworks: different targets (return vs. volatility), trading setups (long top-decile and short bottom-decile vs. trade-all), and metrics (return spread between top and bottom 20% (Q5-Q1) vs. mean squared error (MSE)), making direct comparison and connection challenging. We bridge these communities with EarningsInOne, the first corpus aligning earnings news, ECTs, and intraday and next-day prices across SP 1500 (broad U.S. equity universe, 2022-2025). Applying unified trading and evaluation tools to both signal types, we confirm a clean speed separation, fast numbers, slow language: quantitative surprise peaks at announcement and is largely eliminated by the next market open; qualitative ECT sentiment peaks on the next trading day, real and tradeable, but hidden under prior transcript-based evaluation that optimised sign-agnostic volatility with pointwise MSE.

Recent empirical work shows that semantically equivalent paraphrases can fool financial sentiment classifiers: although a paraphrase remains close to the original under a strong reference embedding, it may shift the target model's representation enough to change the predicted class. Existing robustness theory either assumes a single-model threat model or focuses mainly on empirical attack algorithms. We develop a continuous local model of semantic paraphrase perturbations that captures this two-model structure. We show that the worst-case local displacement of the target representation, subject to a proxy-model budget, is governed by the largest generalised eigenvalue of a matrix pencil $(A,B)$ constructed from the Jacobians of the two embedding maps. The resulting attackability index $λ^*(x)$ is intrinsic to the local paraphrase geometry and the chosen embedders, yields a closed-form prediction-flip condition for affine readouts, and supports conservative population and finite-sample attackability certificates. For uniform control over classes of affine readouts, we derive a distribution-free VC bound for binary attackability indicators and a scale-sensitive margin bound based on an attackability-adjusted margin that subtracts a local geometric penalty from the standard classifier margin. We also connect the continuous theory to discrete paraphrase search, identify an asymmetry between successful and unsuccessful finite searches, and give a covering condition under which the discrete and continuous settings agree. Finally, we propose an empirical verification framework using soft-token relaxations and generated paraphrase sets to assess the local eigenvalue geometry, prediction-flip condition, and finite-search approximation on a deployed financial-text classifier.

Large instruction-following models are powerful but costly to deploy, particularly in finance, where labelled data are limited by confidentiality and expert annotation cost. We present an efficient framework for financial sentiment analysis through distillation with synthetic data, transferring knowledge from a large instruction-tuned teacher to compact student models. The framework is designed for low-resource conditions, where a small set of real examples are collected and labelled by hand. The framework then clusters the examples and uses the clusters to select seeds for generating synthetic examples via structured few-shot prompting. Experiments show that clustering-based seed selection yields more representative synthetic data than random sampling, enabling compact models to achieve strong performance with minimal supervision. Notably, on a more complex and noisy text domain, the compact model trained on the complete synthetic-seed corpus even outperforms the teacher model, while remaining competitive on formal text. The framework provides a practical route toward resource-efficient domain adaptation in financial NLP with minimal human labelling effort.

Can financial news reliably predict short-term stock movements? Despite advances in large language models, this question remains unresolved. We revisit this problem using a zero-shot natural language processing framework, investigating whether models can extract actionable signals from financial news without domain-specific training. We design a structured pipeline that combines zero-shot natural language inference with temporal aggregation, explicitly modelling recency and event-dependent impact horizons when integrating information across articles. To address the need for transparency in high-stakes settings, we introduce a multi-layered explainability framework that links predictions to token-level, article-level, and aggregate evidence, and produces grounded natural language rationales. Across multiple models and prediction horizons, we find that zero-shot approaches consistently fail to outperform simple baselines, with particularly weak performance on negative movements, suggesting deeper structural limitations in mapping news sentiment to short-term price dynamics. However, explainability signals reliably distinguish between trustworthy and unreliable predictions, offering practical value even when accuracy is limited. These findings highlight the limits of zero-shot financial NLP and motivate a shift toward decision-support systems that prioritise transparency and uncertainty awareness. Code: https://github.com/alimert05/zero-shot-stock-xai

The rapid evolution of financial technology demands sophisticated artificial intelligence systems capable of handling diverse challenges across multiple domains simultaneously. This paper presents a groundbreaking unified framework that seamlessly integrates Proximal Policy Optimization for robo-advisory systems, advanced time-series prediction models for high-frequency trading, in-context learning mechanisms for dynamic investment advisory, game-theoretic approaches for competitive banking scenarios, and unified embeddings for cross-modal financial sentiment analysis. Our comprehensive framework addresses the critical gap in existing literature where these technologies have been developed in isolation, failing to leverage their synergistic potential. Through extensive experimentation across multiple financial datasets and real-world scenarios, we demonstrate that our integrated approach achieves superior performance compared to specialized single-domain systems. Specifically, our framework shows a 23.7% improvement in portfolio optimization metrics, reduces prediction error in high-frequency trading by 31.2%, enhances investment recommendation accuracy by 18.9%, optimizes competitive banking strategies with a 27.4% increase in Nash equilibrium convergence speed, and improves sentiment analysis accuracy by 15.6% through cross-modal fusion. The theoretical foundation of our work establishes convergence guarantees for the integrated optimization problem, while our empirical results validate the practical applicability across diverse financial institutions. This research not only advances the state-of-the-art in financial AI but also provides a blueprint for developing comprehensive intelligent systems that can adapt to the complex, interconnected nature of modern financial markets.

Experience-based self-evolution is crucial for LLM agents, but existing benchmarks often assume explicit goals, stable task patterns, and clear feedback. We study a more challenging setting: low-repetition tasks with implicit rewards, where past experience is difficult to reuse and feedback is delayed, noisy, and outcome-level. We introduce \textsc{FinEvolveBench}, a temporally controlled benchmark for financial sentiment prediction that links daily news-driven predictions to future excess returns. We further propose Tree-of-Experience (ToE), a structured experience-management method that organizes, retrieves, validates, and updates agent experience. Experiments show that general-purpose experience mechanisms do not consistently outperform no-experience baselines, while ToE achieves stronger overall performance. These results highlight the importance of structured experience management for self-evolving agents in implicit-reward environments.

Traditional multi-modal financial forecasting often relies on scalar sentiment scores, which fail to capture the nuances of financial news. To address this information loss, this paper explores high-dimensional representation learning by replacing discrete polarity ratings with dense FinBERT embeddings within a Transformer-based forecasting architecture. We benchmarked various embedding strategies on the FNSPID dataset, including raw embeddings, attention-weighted aggregation, and a custom Siamese network. While the attention-based mechanism struggled with the low signal-to-noise ratio typical of financial data, the integration of Siamese-optimized embeddings outperformed both the scalar baseline and raw embedding approaches, demonstrating that preserving high-dimensional narrative context yields improved predictive accuracy for short-term stock price movements.

Accurately forecasting the impact of salient financial events on markets is critical for investors and policymakers. However, existing multimodal time-series models typically fuse text and prices symmetrically, without an explicit way to decide when event text is truly predictive, and thus struggle to exploit the directional event-to-price structure and the heterogeneous roles of textual and price signals. In this work, we propose GS-Fuse, a multimodal event-based forecasting framework that employs (i) a Granger-supervised, causal-aware gated fusion module, which learns to open toward event text only when it provides incremental predictive value beyond historical prices, and (ii) a multi-granularity alignment mechanism that jointly aligns high-level event representations and fine-grained textual cues with future market trajectories. Built as a flexible, plug-and-play adapter on top of off-the-shelf large language models and time-series foundation models, GS-Fuse can be instantiated across diverse backbones and market settings. Extensive experiments on real-world financial datasets show that GS-Fuse consistently outperforms state-of-the-art time-series and multimodal baselines across multiple assets and forecasting horizons.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become foundational for grounding large language models in domain-specific corpora, yet conventional vector-based RAG systems are fundamentally limited in their ability to capture the structured, multi-entity relationships that underpin financial market analysis. This paper presents a comprehensive comparative study of a novel two-hop Graph-RAG architecture versus a standard vector-only baseline for cross-entity financial sentiment analysis. Our system constructs a sentiment-weighted knowledge graph of 59 equity entities from 255 news articles covering 10 major technology stocks, then augments dense retrieval with intensity-filtered graph traversal over INFLUENCES edges to surface relational evidence inaccessible to vector search alone. We evaluate both architectures on 100 grounded queries (30 Direct, 70 Relational) using semantic similarity, entity recall, RAGAS metrics, latency benchmarks, and ablation studies. Graph-RAG achieves a statistically significant improvement in entity recall (+6.4%, p < 0.001, Wilcoxon signed-rank) and delivers substantially more relevant answers for complex multi-entity queries (+11.7% Answer Relevancy), with gains concentrating in relational question types (+16.1%). Critically, these improvements come at no measurable cost to answer quality (delta = +0.001 semantic similarity, Cohen's d = 0.078), with a modest 22.6% increase in mean latency offset by an 80% reduction in latency variance. An ablation study on the graph traversal intensity threshold reveals an inverted-U relationship with answer quality, identifying tau = 0.5 as optimal over the production default of tau = 0.7. These findings characterize a precision-for-coverage trade-off inherent to graph-augmented retrieval and provide actionable architectural guidance for practitioners building RAG systems for multi-entity financial analysis.

Investor sentiment shapes financial markets, yet modeling sentiment in Arabic financial contexts remains challenging due to linguistic complexity and limited resources. We present an Arabic NLP framework for large-scale financial sentiment analysis tailored to the Saudi market, integrating official financial news and social media to capture institutional and public investor sentiment. The framework constructs a large Arabic financial corpus through a multi-stage pipeline encompassing data collection, cleaning, deduplication, entity linking, and sentiment annotation. Transformer-based NER combined with a curated company lexicon links textual mentions to canonical company identifiers, with sentiment labels assigned using a five-class scheme. The resulting dataset of 84K samples supports company-level sentiment aggregation and analysis of sentiment dynamics relative to stock market behavior on the Saudi Exchange. Experimental results demonstrate reliable and scalable Arabic financial sentiment analysis.

Financial institutions increasingly require AI explanations that are persistent, cross-validated across methods, and conversationally accessible to human decision-makers. We present an architecture for human-centered explainable AI in financial sentiment analysis that combines three contributions. First, we treat XAI artifacts -- LIME feature attributions, occlusion-based word importance scores, and saliency heatmaps -- as persistent, searchable objects in distributed S3-compatible storage with structured metadata and natural-language summaries, enabling semantic retrieval over explanation history and automatic index reconstruction after system failures. Second, we enable multi-method explanation triangulation, where a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) assistant compares and synthesizes results from multiple XAI methods applied to the same prediction, allowing users to assess explanation robustness through natural-language dialogue. Third, we evaluate the faithfulness of generated explanations using automated checks over grounding completeness, hallucinated claims, and method-attribution behavior. We demonstrate the architecture on an EXTRA-BRAIN financial sentiment analysis pipeline using FinBERT predictions and present evaluation results showing that constrained prompting reduces hallucination rate by 36% and increases method-attribution citations by 73% compared to naive prompting. We discuss implications for trustworthy, human-centered AI services in regulated financial environments.

This paper explores the use of emojis in financial sentiment analysis, focusing on the social media platform StockTwits. Emojis, increasingly prevalent in digital communication, have potential as compact indicators of investor sentiment, which can be critical for predicting market trends. Our study examines whether emojis alone can serve as reliable proxies for financial sentiment and how they compare with traditional text-based analysis. We conduct a series of experiments using logistic regression and transformer models. We further analyze the performance, computational efficiency, and data requirements of emoji-based versus text-based sentiment classification. Using a balanced dataset of about 528,000 emoji-containing StockTwits posts, we find that emoji-only models achieve F1 approximately 0.75, lower than text-emoji combined models, which achieve F1 approximately 0.88, but with far lower computational cost. This is a useful feature in time-sensitive settings such as high-frequency trading. Furthermore, certain emojis and emoji pairs exhibit strong predictive power for market sentiment, demonstrating over 90 percent accuracy in predicting bullish or bearish trends. Finally, our research reveals large statistical differences in emoji usage between financial and general social media contexts, stressing the need for domain-specific sentiment analysis models.

Emojis are widely used in online financial communication, but it is unclear whether they provide transferable sentiment signals across languages, platforms, and asset communities. This study examines the extent to which emoji usage, semantics, and sentiment polarity remain stable across financial communities, and how these layers influence zero-shot sentiment transfer. Using large corpora of Twitter and StockTwits posts in four languages, we measure cross-community divergence and evaluate sentiment models trained under emoji-only, text-only, and text+emoji inputs. We find that emoji frequencies differ across communities, especially across languages, but their semantics and sentiment polarity are largely stable. Cross-asset transferability shows minimal degradation, while cross-language transfer remains the most challenging. Including emojis consistently reduces transfer gaps relative to text-only models. These results indicate that financial communication exhibits a partially shared ``emoji code,'' and that emojis provide compact, language-independent sentiment cues that improve model generalization across markets and platforms.

While sentiment analysis is the staple of financial NLP, capturing the nuances of 'why' behind that sentiment remains a challenge. There have been attempts to address this by analysing investor emotions alongside sentiment; however, this does not provide the additional granularity required to understand the target of the emotion/sentiment. We address this by augmenting the StockEmotions dataset with semantically structured opinion graphs, which provide granular semantic depth to the existing sentiment and emotion labels. Using a declarative LLM pipeline, we augment the StockEmotions dataset with opinion graphs for each sentence, derived from 10,000 comments collected from StockTwits. In addition, we study the effect of introducing opinion semantics on baseline classifiers using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Our analysis demonstrates that incorporating opinion semantics improves classification performance across different emotional spectrums

We examine whether financial news can improve realised volatility forecasting using a parsimonious NLP-based framework that incorporates specialised financial word embeddings alongside general-purpose alternatives. News-only forecasts contain useful predictive information but generally do not outperform strong volatility-history benchmarks. Crucially, combining stock-related news forecasts with a strong volatility-history benchmark lowers forecast losses for several specifications and increases realised utility, providing evidence consistent with forecast complementarity. Performance varies across news types, embedding representations, and volatility regimes. SHAP attributions associate forecast variation with economically interpretable firm-specific and macroeconomic news themes.