Funnel Efficiency

Autonomous agents powered by large language models (LLMs) continuously accumulate experience through interaction, creating an opportunity to improve future behavior through self-evolution. A fundamental challenge is how to transform abundant, task-specific interaction experience into reusable model competence without sacrificing the ability to adapt rapidly to newly observed evidence. Explicit textual states, such as skills and agent harnesses, provide fast, human-readable and editable adaptation, but incur persistent dependence on external context; parametric policies provide compact and reusable competence, but are substantially slower to update. We present \textit{Experience Funnel}, a self-evolving framework that couples fast state adaptation with slow policy consolidation in an alternating loop. Interaction trajectories are first distilled into an explicit textual state, where newly acquired experience can be rapidly incorporated and validated. The framework then selectively identifies state-enabled behavior that remains useful across state revisions and consolidates it into the policy through transition-aware distillation. The updated state--policy pair subsequently generates new rollouts, providing fresh evidence for the next round of state adaptation and policy consolidation. Experiments across diverse agent benchmarks show that \textit{Experience Funnel} consistently improves agent capability over state-only evolution and policy-internalization approaches, while progressively converting useful explicit experience into autonomous policy competence.

Threat hunting increasingly depends on converting unstructured knowledge (e.g., Cyber Threat Intelligence reports) into actionable hunt leads: concise, investigable hypotheses grounded in observable artifacts and adversary techniques. Producing such leads manually is a tedious and hard-to-scale task. Existing automated approaches stop at the entity layer, ignore the defender's operational environment, and analyze each report in isolation. To address these gaps, we introduce AHLERT, a system that automatically extracts relevant, environment-aware, and hunt leads from threat reports through (i) a hybrid retriever that combines dense vector search with multi-hop traversal over a knowledge graph seeded with MITRE ATT&CK; (ii) an ontology-grounding retrieval-augmented generation method that constrains each lead to the defender's own assets and controls; and (iii) an LLM-agnostic framework that emits structured, directly actionable leads rather than loose indicators of compromise. We evaluate AHLERT on public CTI reports for well-known APTs across multiple proprietary and open-weight models. Hybrid evidence retrieval with ontology grounding raises mean F1 by ~2x (0.44 to 0.85) over a single-route flat-RAG baseline, and AHLERT attains the highest effectiveness score (~86.95%) compared with off-the-shelf LLM models.

In the one-time selling B2B context, the buying cycle may last months or even years. During the long process, targeting customers that have a high potential to make purchases and recommending personalized campaigns accordingly are important for effective marketing. For this goal, we study the following problems, B2B customer data aggregation, customer feature generation, and prediction of whether a B2B customer would show interest in making a purchase (i.e., prediction of conversion into sales funnel). We propose an algorithm to aggregate individual contacts to the B2B customer level based on multiple keys. For non-standardized keys such as company names, we propose a novel architecture to cluster them in a domain encompassing irregularities such as spelling mistakes and spelling variants. We then define and generate a set of features and apply the CatBoost model for customer conversion prediction. Our framework achieves 91% prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction results and analysis of the model, we then discuss personalized campaign recommendations to foster conversion.

Coupon campaigns seek to lift both conversion and revenue, but gross merchandise value (GMV) follows a deterministic funnel from conversion to conditional order value and is zero-inflated and heavy-tailed. We propose FunnelCausalNet, an uplift estimator coupling a binary conversion head with a nonnegative conditional-value head through $μ_{\mathrm{gmv}}=μ_{\mathrm{conv}}μ_{\mathrm{val}}$. Under explicit RCT, support, rate-gap, and cross-head covariance-control assumptions, an idealized leading-order MSE comparison identifies a regime in which funnel composition can reduce pointwise variance; this is a heuristic, not a guarantee for the shared-representation neural model. The estimator is paired with marginal split-conformal CATE summaries, combined through a Bonferroni union as audit bands, and a Lagrangian budgeted allocator using RCT-anchored estimates for subsidy-aware ROI accounting. On semi-synthetic multi-tier Criteo-MT7, FunnelCausalNet's mean AUUC_GMV is within one seed standard deviation of the leading feature-interaction baseline among eleven baselines, while a controlled ablation reduces GMV effect error versus direct GMV regression by 18--48% across tested zero-inflation regimes. On de-identified industrial Hotel-Coupon RCT logs with about 4.9 million hold-out exposure records per seed, expected-outcome evaluation sweeps full LP frontiers; FunnelCausalNet has the best seed-averaged mean DeltaROI at all seven correlated anchors from 10% to 60%, which we treat as descriptive frontier consistency rather than independent significance. On sparse binary-spend public benchmarks, revenue-focused rankers can dominate uplift-curve proxies, defining an explicit regime boundary.

E-commerce platforms must allocate fixed marketing budgets across multiple channels to maximize business utility. However, standard predict-then-optimize (PTO) paradigms fail in this compositional space due to observational confounding and severe extrapolation. We formulate this challenge as a simplex-constrained uplift decision problem and propose ReAlloc, a fast-slow causal framework. Specifically, an agile Orthogonal Teacher extracts unbiased local gradients from short-term logs, while an Explanation-Guided Student distills them into a structured marginal field over long-term horizons. This design enables support-aware, conservative decisions that capture cross-channel substitutions. Extensive simulations and large-scale online A/B tests on Taobao platform demonstrate that ReAlloc achieves simultaneous lifts in both pay order and income.

We present FunnelAL, a retrieve-then-rank active learning system for single-class discovery, which adapts the multi-stage funnel architecture of industrial recommender systems to data annotation. Large-scale supervised learning faces two challenges: efficiently finding relevant samples in a massive corpus, and distinguishing true positives from visually confusable negatives when embeddings do not cleanly separate classes. Conventional active learning offers a principled framework for reducing annotation cost, yet it treats sample selection as a single-stage process that addresses neither challenge efficiently. FunnelAL decomposes the problem into cascaded stages. Starting from a single positive and negative example, the system iterates through: (1) embedding-based retrieval scoring that narrows the corpus to a manageable candidate set; (2) a precision-triggered ranking stage that exploits a learned ranker (RankNet) while batch precision remains high, then automatically blends in committee-based exploration (QBC) once returns diminish; and (3) feedback from the annotator's labels that refines both stages in subsequent iterations. We evaluate on three diverse image classification benchmarks. With a perfect annotator, FunnelAL attains the best final F1 on all three benchmarks, the best annotation efficiency (first in AULC), and the fewest annotation rounds. The most recent single-class discovery methods (GAL, PF-MA) at best match its final quality, and only at consistently higher labeling cost. Under annotator labeling errors at realistic rates, FunnelAL remains first or statistically tied for first while classical uncertainty-based methods degrade two to three times faster. Our work provides a concrete bridge between multi-stage recommender systems and active learning.

In this paper, we propose a new solution for addressing the content cold-start problem in industry-scale search and recommender systems. Compared to prior approaches, we have made the following new contributions: 1) our solution spans the entire multi-stage funnel and generalizes well for both search and recommendation surfaces, 2) our solution reduces bias favoring existing content, allowing more accurate model prediction across content types and reducing short-term tradeoffs associated with high volumes of explicit content exploration, 3) our solution is evaluated with a scalable measurement framework that enables fast short-term experimentation while validating long-term impact. We have iteratively built and successfully deployed this new system at Pinterest in the past two years and observed significant improvements in fresh content exploration, overall user engagement, and content ecosystem health.

Lead ranking in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) systems faces a persistent challenge: models achieving high offline accuracy often underperform in production. We identify three fundamental gaps responsible for this disconnect: offline-online metric mismatch, pointwise-listwise objective misalignment, and temporal distribution drift. To address these gaps, we propose SalesLoop, a reinforcement learning framework that establishes a closed feedback loop between model predictions and real-world business outcomes. Our approach introduces (1) a performance-aware reward that encodes conversion outcomes weighted by ranking position and conversion velocity, and (2) Discriminative GRPO, a listwise optimization objective that adapts Group Relative Policy Optimization to discriminative ranking models. SalesLoop improves NDCG@K by +7.9% and P@K by +15.8% over the strongest static baseline. A 160-day production A/B test at a New Energy Vehicle manufacturer, spanning 16.5M leads and 280 sales specialists across two provincial markets, validates statistically significant cumulative lift of +4.7% ($p=0.047$) and +8.7% ($p=0.002$). In production, the ranking backbone achieves Top-10% recall of 44.1% and surfaces high-intent leads at $2.3\times$ the conversion rate of specialist baselines.

In large-scale ride-hailing, hold control is a critical mechanism for improving passenger-driver experience. By selectively delaying certain driver-order pairs, the system waits for better opportunities, reduces cancellations, and mitigates wasted driver effort. However, existing industrial hold strategies often rely on heuristic thresholding over multiple predictive models, which can be brittle under non-stationary traffic and hard to optimize for multi-objective experience signals. We propose EXHOLD, a deployable two-stage framework decoupling experience-aware pair assessment from hold-time execution. In Stage I, we learn a decision model assigning each driver-order pair to discrete, interpretable experience tiers by optimizing a unified objective that aggregates satisfaction signals across the matching funnel. In Stage II, we solve for a monotone hold-time schedule via constrained optimization over empirical quantiles. This explicitly enforces service guardrails bounding the unnecessary holding of promising matches while maximizing overall experience improvement. We evaluate EXHOLD through randomized A/B experiments in DiDi's production system in Brazil. Results show consistent gains in marketplace efficiency and experience: EXHOLD increases trip completion and driver income, significantly reduces passenger cancellations, and improves funnel efficiency. Ablations and behavioral analyses confirm both stages are essential and that the policy makes calibrated decisions under spatiotemporal heterogeneity. EXHOLD is currently deployed, serving production traffic in Brazil.

Matching influencers (KOLs) to free-form, multi-part Thai marketing criteria is today served either by keyword search over structured profiles, which misses semantic fit, or by prompting frontier LLMs over every candidate, which is accurate but slow and expensive. We present InfluMatch, a low-cost three-stage cascade -- retrieval $\rightarrow$ rerank $\rightarrow$ reason -- built entirely from small open-weight models: dense retrieval returns 50 candidates, a 4B pointwise reranker scores each by the log-probability of a single Yes token and keeps 10, and a 4B reasoner grades the shortlist per criterion on a rubric with a Thai rationale. The cascade is designed for cost: reasoning over a filtered top-10 halves token spend versus reasoning over all 50 while scoring 14 points higher. End-to-end against human relevance labels on an 11-query set with all 50 candidates labeled, the full cascade reaches 94.1% P@5, versus a retrieval-only baseline near random; it matches the frontier model Kimi-K2.6 (91.8%) while emitting ${\sim}35\times$ fewer output tokens and serving a 50-KOL query in ${\sim}20$ s on one A100. Notably, the only fine-tuning that pays off is pairwise: a SimPO-tuned reranker matches the frontier baseline's best-pick accuracy (78.0 EM), whereas fine-tuning the reasoner on pointwise per-criterion labels improves offline scores yet degrades end-to-end ranking -- an inversion we trace to the design of the absolute labeling task -- leaving the untuned base model as the strongest deployed reasoner. The result is a deployable, explainable KOL search system at a small fraction of frontier serving cost.

Federated unlearning (FU) is critical for complying with legal mandates like the right to be forgotten in decentralized systems, yet current methods face a persistent dilemma between non-target knowledge loss and high request latency. To resolve these issues, we propose FedUP, a one-shot federated unlearning framework utilizing lightweight pluggable filters that act as a "knowledge funnel" to screen out target data while preserving original model performance. By freezing original model parameters and training filters at the server side using differentially private (DP)-protected class centroid samples, FedUP bypasses the need for multi-round client-server communication and complex retraining, reducing unlearning latency from minutes to mere seconds. Additionally, the framework's pluggable architecture ensures inherent reversibility, enabling the seamless restoration of forgotten knowledge by simply removing the filters. Extensive experiments on diverse image and text tasks demonstrate that FedUP effectively reduces non-target knowledge loss and achieves superior unlearning precision and efficiency across various scenarios. Code is available at: https://github.com/suows/FedUP-code.

Generative molecular models for drug design are a promising direction with much active research. In the next phase of computational drug design, such models will need to understand small molecule structure and protein-ligand interactions, and they will need to possess the machinery to generate molecules de novo. Incorporating each feature poses a critical challenge. Equally important, yet often treated as secondary, is the ability to grow a molecule from a partial starting point -- a scaffold or fragment supplied by a chemist -- which is the central operation of lead optimization. We present Sesame (Spatial Evoformer for a Structure-Aware Molecular Engine), a diffusion-based molecular generation model that leverages a novel spatial pairformer module to condition on partial molecular structure and the surrounding protein pocket, both expressed as continuous spatial density maps. This single conditioning mechanism supports both de novo generation and fragment-conditioned lead optimization, letting a medicinal chemist prune a hit to a scaffold and have Sesame grow it in productive ways. In addition to this module, we also introduce a diffusion framework for joint denoising of atom types, bond types, and positions, along with a trajectory finetuning scheme that trains on the model's own sampling rollouts to improve generation quality. Sesame is trained on a large corpus of ligand-only and protein-ligand datasets.

The coupon incentive is one of the most common tools marketers use to court users to engage with a business at various stages of the customer life cycle. A variety of factors can affect the effectiveness of a coupon incentive on users, timing being one of them. We hypothesize that coupons can be more effective when delivered at critical times in the customer journey, right when a user is engaging with the platform. Verifying such a hypothesis would typically require real time event-triggered coupon distribution software that may be too expensive to implement. In this paper, we propose a framework in which we apply causal inference on "natural randomized control trial experiments" to measure the effectiveness of sending coupons at the right time to users without requiring a dedicated AB test. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework in the case of a user onboarding coupon campaign held in our company and show how the results can lead to correct data-driven decisions for the business. Furthermore, in order to test the generalizability of our framework, and to make our research more reproducible, we apply our framework on a user retention campaign with a publicly available dataset.

Current cultural alignment approaches focus on inference-time interventions, assuming models already contain sufficient cultural knowledge. We argue modern LLM pipelines suffer from a cultural data funnel. Using a multidimensional tagging framework across pretraining, fine-tuning, alignment, and reasoning datasets, we show explicit cultural signals decline sharply during post-training, while geographically concentrated, task-specialized data dominates. Multilinguality enhances geographic diversity of cultural knowledge but does not ensure balanced representation. Our tags improve downstream cultural benchmark performance, demonstrating that advances require shifting focus in training data pipelines. To facilitate future research, we release our culturally tagged dataset with 5.6M samples at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CohereLabs/CultureMarkers.

When running marketing campaigns, retailers must decide which products to promote and which users to target. These decisions are inherently coupled: effective campaigns match users and items with strong mutual affinity into non-overlapping groups of predefined sizes. However, existing approaches assume predefined campaign structure or decouple item selection from user assignment, and cannot discover campaign groupings directly from joint interaction patterns. We therefore formalize this campaign problem as auto-targeting: jointly selecting users and items to construct multiple disjoint campaigns. To solve this combinatorial problem, we propose three complementary strategies: (i) constrained spectral biclustering to find dense regions in the user-item affinity matrix, (ii) greedy local search with pairwise swaps for combinatorial refinement, and (iii) a multi-armed bandit framework to escape local optima through exploration. We evaluate these methods on a synthetic dataset, the Amazon Reviews benchmarks, and large-scale proprietary commercial data, and compare the results to simulated annealing as a baseline. The results show that biclustering consistently achieves the highest campaign quality, lift, and fairness scores. While biclustering runs efficiently on smaller datasets, its runtime increases substantially on very large ones, where bandit-based methods instead offer a scalable alternative.

Selecting which companies to approach is a central challenge in business-to-business (B2B) sales, where decisions are often based on manual research and fragmented information sources. Modern B2B sales platforms centralize company records and use learned company embeddings to support tasks such as recommending and prioritizing potential clients. In this study, we investigate whether enriching these company embeddings with Semantic knowledge from DBpedia improves downstream interaction-prediction performance, within a pipeline that integrates structured company attributes and text embeddings deployed on a real B2B platform. We evaluate the learned embeddings on a downstream interaction prediction task using real user feedback data from the platform. Results show that DBpedia enrichment improves downstream performance, with gains observed on ranking and discrimination metrics.

In modern online advertising platforms, Guaranteed Delivery (GD) contracts coexist and bid with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) auctions. Recent approaches either decouple GD and RTB optimization or rely on heuristic priority rules, and thus fail to effectively balance short-term revenue maximization with long-term contract delivery under complex multi-slot delivery and impression constraints. To address these challenges, we propose HMAF (Hierarchical Multi-Slot Allocation Framework), a unified framework designed to optimize impression allocation in GD--RTB advertising platforms. HMAF employs the Plan--Calibrate--Execute paradigm as its core structure, and integrates offline constraint optimization with online decision-making, balancing offline GD resource planning, dynamically calibrating GD--RTB competitiveness, and making real-time listwise rank decisions across multi-slot environments. HMAF has been implemented in multiple marketing scenarios at Meituan, one of the world's largest online food delivery platforms, leading to a 3.72% increase in GD delivery rate and a 1.59% increase in total advertisement revenue.

Sales lead conversion in high-stakes domains (e.g., automotive, real estate) differs fundamentally from e-commerce recommendation due to prolonged decision cycles and multi-stage funnels. Traditional lead scoring methods rule-based scorecards, machine learning, or pointwise CTR models face severe challenges: sparse supervision, a semantic gap in unstructured CRM logs, and inability to capture relative lead priority. While Large Language Models(LLMs) offer superior semantic understanding of customer interactions, general-purpose LLMs are ill-suited for lead ranking: they generate text rather than comparable scores, and lack alignment with the hierarchical priorities of sales funnels. We introduce an LLM-based discriminative framework for sales lead scoring, which supports joint modeling of structured CRM features and unstructured customer interactions. On top of this framework, we propose HPRO (Hierarchical Preference Ranking Optimization), which augments sales lead scoring with a hierarchical preference ranking objective. HPRO employs a margin-aware Bradley-Terry formulation to transform sparse binary labels into dense, funnel-aware preference pairs, enabling lead scoring to leverage both pointwise and pairwise supervision. Experiments on large-scale data from a leading NEV brand demonstrate state-of-the-art classification (AUC 0.8161) and ranking performance (+39.7% precision among top-ranked leads). A 132-day online A/B test validates 9.5% sales volume uplift, confirming real-world commercial impact.

Increased competition and the growing similarity of products and services offered by retailers have lowered the barriers for customers to switch to competitors. Accurate churn prediction can be a valuable tool for driving effective personalized marketing campaigns and helping to reduce customer attrition. This study evaluates the performance of traditional machine learning techniques, namely, Random Forests, XGBoost, and Support Vector Machines, and compares them with the Unified Multi-Task Time Series Model for churn prediction, a binary time-series classification task. Despite the strong capacity of the latter to model complex temporal dynamics and inter-variable relationships, our results indicate that for churn prediction, conventional methods can still outperform it in terms of predictive performance, data efficiency, and computational resource requirements for training and deployment. These findings are consistent across multiple datasets and various churn labeling techniques.

AI agents are increasingly interacting within shared online environments, creating new operational security risks. We analyze activity on Moltbook, a Reddit-style social platform where AI agents--typically configured and overseen by human operators--post and interact with one another at scale. Using a dataset of 228,684 posts produced by more than 39,500 accounts over a seventeen-day observation window, we combine semantic clustering of high-engagement posts with LLM-assisted classification of harmful content and manual review of high-risk samples. The analysis identifies 98 thematic discourse clusters spanning agent infrastructure, autonomy debates, and financial activity. While most observed content was benign, 18.28% of posts contained toxic, manipulative, or malicious material. We cluster malicious content and identify 74 classes of malicious behavior, including credential harvesting attempts, host-execution instructions, proxy routing guidance, and efforts to install untrusted agent skills. Harmful content frequently appeared within mainstream operational discussions about agent functionality. We also document coordinated posting campaigns capable of generating thousands of posts in minutes.

The rise of machine learning has shifted targeted resource allocation in policy and humanitarian settings toward algorithmic targeting based on predicted risk scores. This approach is typically cheaper and faster than traditional screening procedures that directly observe the latent vulnerability status through physical verification. Yet, even access to the true conditional vulnerability probability cannot eliminate misallocation: aleatoric uncertainty over individual vulnerability status is irreducible, and probabilistic targeting inevitably misallocates some resources. In this work we study how screening and algorithmic targeting should be optimally combined in a two-stage allocation framework where a screening stage observes true outcomes for a subset of units before a final allocation stage assigns the resource under a fixed coverage budget. We show that the optimal strategy screens units at the margin of algorithmic allocation, while directly targeting the highest-risk units. Furthermore, we empirically characterize when screening and algorithmic targeting act as complements or substitutes: efficiency gains from screening grow as the aleatoric uncertainty in the population increases. We illustrate our framework with applications in income-based social protection programs and humanitarian demining in Colombia, where the tension between screening costs and allocation efficiency is operationally consequential.

Structured launch signals on Product Hunt contain statistically significant predictive information for Series A funding outcomes. We construct PHBench from 67,292 featured Product Hunt posts spanning 2019-2025, linked to Crunchbase funding records via deterministic domain matching, identifying 528 verified Series A raises within 18 months of launch (positive rate: 0.78%). Our best-performing model, a three-component ensemble (ENS_avg, ENS_ISO, XGB) selected by validation F0.5, achieves F0.5 = 0.097 and AP = 0.037 (95% CI: 0.024-0.072; 4.7x lift over random) on the private held-out test set (103 positives). A paired bootstrap confirms a statistically credible advantage over the logistic regression baseline (AP delta: +0.013, 95% CI: [0.004, 0.039], p < 0.001; F0.5 delta: +0.056, 95% CI: [0.006, 0.122], p = 0.016). Validation-set metrics (F0.5 = 0.284, AP = 0.126) reflect best-of-144 selection bias on 53 positives and are reported for benchmark reproducibility only. We further evaluate three zero-shot Gemini models (Gemini 2.5 Flash, Gemini 3 Flash, and Gemini 3.1 Pro) in an anonymized numerical setting. The best LLM achieves AP = 0.034 (Gemini 3 Flash), below the LR baseline AP of 0.044. Notably, the most capable Gemini variant (Gemini 3.1 Pro, AP = 0.023) performs worst -- an unexpected pattern that warrants further investigation across providers and prompting strategies. Both ML and LLM models show the same temporal performance decay tracking the 2020-2021 funding boom and subsequent contraction, confirming the dataset captures genuine market structure rather than noise. PHBench provides a reproducible framework comprising public training, validation, and blind test splits; 61 engineered features; a five-metric evaluation harness; and a public leaderboard at https://phbench.com. All code, baseline models, and anonymized dataset splits are publicly available.

We study a graph bandit setting where the objective of the learner is to detect the most influential node of a graph by requesting as little information from the graph as possible. One of the relevant applications for this setting is marketing in social networks, where the marketer aims at finding and taking advantage of the most influential customers. The existing approaches for bandit problems on graphs require either partial or complete knowledge of the graph. In this paper, we do not assume any knowledge of the graph, but we consider a setting where it can be gradually discovered in a sequential and active way. At each round, the learner chooses a node of the graph and the only information it receives is a stochastic set of the nodes that the chosen node is currently influencing. To address this setting, we propose BARE, a bandit strategy for which we prove a regret guarantee that scales with the detectable dimension, a problem dependent quantity that is often much smaller than the number of nodes.

The correlation between insect morphological traits and climate has been documented in physiological studies, but such studies remain limited by the time-consuming nature of the data analysis. In particular, the open source datasets often lack annotations of species' morphological traits, making dedicated annotations campaigns necessary; these efforts are typically local in scale and costly. In this paper, we propose a pipeline to identify and segment body parts of Odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) using deep neural networks, with the ultimate goal of extracting body parts' colouration. The pipeline is trained on a limited annotated dataset and refined with pseudo supervised data. We show that, by using open source images from citizen science platforms, our approach can segment each visible subject (Odonates) into head, thorax, abdomen, and wings and then extract a colour palette for each body part. This will enable large-scale statistical analysis of ecological correlations (e.g., between colouration and climate change, habitat loss, or geolocation) which are crucial for quantifying and assessing ecosystem biodiversity status.