Long-Tailed Distribution

Electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring in Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) networks is constrained by strict data-sharing regulations and privacy concerns. Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative learning by keeping raw ECG data on devices, but frequent transmissions of high-dimensional model updates incur heavy per-round traffic over bandwidth-limited links. To alleviate this bottleneck, federated distillation (FD) replaces parameter exchange with logit-based knowledge transfer. However, the performance of FD often degrades under the non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) and long-tailed label distributions in ECG deployments. To address these challenges, we propose a bidirectional federated knowledge distillation (BiFedKD) framework that employs an aggregation-by-distillation pipeline with temperature scaling to produce a stable global distillation signal for cross-client alignment. Experiments on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia dataset show that BiFedKD improves accuracy and Macro-F1 over the baseline by $3.52\%$ and $9.93\%$, respectively. Moreover, to reach the same Macro-F1, BiFedKD reduces communication overhead by $40\%$ and computation cost by $71.7\%$ compared with the baseline.

Recent works have proposed incorporating heavy-tailed (HT) noise into diffusion- and flow-based generative models, with the goals of better recovering the tails of target distributions and improving generative diversity. This motivation is intuitive: if the data are heavy-tailed, HT noise may appear better matched than light-tailed (LT) Gaussian noise. However, replacing Gaussian noise by HT noise also changes the underlying estimation problem. In this paper, we revisit this paradigm through a combined theoretical and empirical study, establishing sampling-error bounds for two representative diffusion models driven by HT and LT noise. We show that HT noise makes the statistical estimation problem harder, leading to less favorable sampling-error bounds. We support these findings with experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, empirically recovering the predicted error trade-off. Our results call into question a growing design trend in generative modeling and challenge the use of HT noise to improve rare-region exploration.

This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample forecasting errors -- achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE -- and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling.

Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the data: under intensity-weighted MAE, real and synthetic labels at the same input are simply averaged, meaning data augmentation shifts the predicted mean rather than the conditional distribution. We resolve this with Q-SRDRN, a multi-quantile super-resolution network trained with pinball loss at tau in 0.50, 0.95, 0.99, 0.999. Two CNN-specific design choices make this practical: IncrementBound enforces monotonicity while preserving each quantile channel's gradient identity, and separate per-quantile output heads provide independent filter banks for bulk and tail detection. Under this design, data augmentation via cVAE becomes complementary: the median head absorbs synthetic patterns without contaminating upper quantiles. Empirically, on Florida (convective/tropical-cyclone dominated), the un-augmented Q-SRDRN P999 head detects 1,598 of 2,111 events at 200 mm/day versus 88 for the deterministic baseline--an 18x detection-rate gain (4.2% to 75.7%)--with 63% lower KL divergence and 3.9% lower RMSE. Adding cVAE-generated samples lifts the P50 channel from 14 to 1,038 hits at 200 mm/day. On California (atmospheric-river dominated), the architecture reaches near-perfect detection (P999 SEDI >= 0.996 through 300 mm/day). On Texas, the baseline catches only 2 of 10,720 events at 200 mm/day while the P999 head catches 8,776 (81.9%). While the cVAE does not transfer across regions, multi-quantile regression captures extremes wherever the large-scale signal is strong, while augmentation rescues the median where it is not.

Length-dependent logit rescaling is widely used to stabilize long-context self-attention, but existing analyses and methods suggest conflicting inverse-temperature laws for the context length $n$, ranging from $(\log n)^{1/2}$ to $\log n$ and $(\log n)^2$. We provide a general theory showing that the desirable scale is determined by the gap-counting function $N_n$ of each attention row. Counting how many competitors lie within each gap from the maximum, we define an upper-tail accumulation scale and prove that it gives the critical inverse-temperature scale for softmax concentration: below this scale, the top competitors remain unseparated, whereas above it, the attention entropy collapses. This framework unifies prior scaling laws as different $N_n$ and yields a direct diagnostic for attention-score families, from idealized theoretical models to more practical transformers.

Predicting rare extreme events such as wildfires from meteorological data requires models that remain reliable under evolving environmental conditions. This problem is inherently long-tailed: wildfire events are rare but high-impact, while most observations correspond to non-fire conditions, causing standard learning objectives to underemphasize the minority class (fire) that matters most. In addition, models trained on historical distributions often fail under distribution shifts, exhibiting degraded performance in new environments. To this end, we propose Environment-Adaptive Preference Optimization (EAPO), a framework that adapts prediction to the target environment with long-tail distribution. Given a new input distribution, we first construct distribution-aligned datasets via $k$-nearest neighbor retrieval. We then perform a hybrid fine-tuning procedure on this local manifold, combining supervised learning with preference optimization, as well as emphasizing on rare extreme events. EAPO refines decision boundaries while avoiding conflicting signals from heterogeneous training data. We evaluate EAPO on a real-world wildfire prediction task with environmental shifts. EAPO achieves robust performance (ROC-AUC 0.7310) and improves detection in extreme regimes, demonstrating its effectiveness in dynamic wildfire prediction systems.

Modeling uncertainty in heavy-tailed time series remains a critical challenge for deep probabilistic forecasting models, which often struggle to capture abrupt, extreme events. While Lévy stable distributions offer a natural framework for modeling such non-Gaussian behaviors, the intractability of their probability density functions severely limits conventional likelihood-based inference. To address this, we introduce DeepLévy, a neural framework that learns mixtures of Lévy stable distributions by minimizing the discrepancy between empirical and parametric characteristic functions. DeepLévy incorporates a mixture mechanism that adaptively learns context-dependent weights and parameters over multiple Lévy components, enabling flexible multi-horizon uncertainty modeling. Evaluations on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DeepLévy outperforms state-of-the-art deep probabilistic forecasting approaches in tail risk metrics, especially under extreme volatility.

We present TailedTS, a large-scale benchmark dataset derived from Wikipedia hourly page view observations throughout 2024, specifically designed to test time series forecasting models under heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and non-Gaussian conditions. The dataset comprises approximately 24.69 billion data points spanning roughly 3 million unique Wikipedia pages per month, stored in high-efficiency Apache Parquet format. Wikipedia traffic follows a pronounced power-law distribution where roughly 5% of pages account for over 70% of total page views, creating a natural and rigorous testbed for model robustness against extreme volatility that are absent from or underrepresented in existing benchmarks such as M4, M5, and UCI electricity datasets. TailedTS enables several research tasks. First, we introduce a periodicity quantification framework based on sparse autoregression with sparsity and non-negativity constraints, revealing that frequently-viewed pages exhibit significantly weaker periodic structure than their less-viewed counterparts, showing direct implications for server allocation and traffic forecasting on large digital platforms. Second, we provide standardized prediction benchmarks evaluated under a suite of non-Gaussian loss functions, including $\ell_1$-norm, Huber, quantile, and $\ell_p$-norm losses, demonstrating that standard Gaussian-based estimators degrade substantially on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives provide consistent gains across all traffic scales. TailedTS is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17070469.

Stochastic bandit algorithms are usually analyzed under a mean-reward criterion, yet many problems favor arms with strong upper-tail performance, which we study herein. For a fixed miscoverage level $α$, the natural upper-tail target of arm $j$ is the upper endpoint $F_j^{-1}(1-α/2)$ of a central prediction interval. This target can rank arms differently from their means, creating a central mismatch with the classical bandit objective. To this end, we propose ACP-UCB1, a conformal-style policy that combines an adaptive conformal estimate of the upper endpoint with a UCB-type optimism bonus. The technical challenge is that the conformity scores used by ACP-UCB1 are recomputed from evolving empirical quantile estimates and evaluated at an adaptive level. We control this endpoint through reward-quantile concentration, a perturbation argument for recomputed score quantiles, and deterministic localization of the adaptive level. ACP-UCB1 achieves logarithmic upper-quantile regret with per-arm contribution $O(\nicefrac{\log n}{Δ_j^{\mathrm{ACP}}})$. We also provide metric-specific regret decompositions comparing ACP-UCB1 with UCB1 and use numerical experiments to validate performance and improvement.

Most first-order optimizers treat matrix-valued parameters as vectors, ignoring the intrinsic geometry of hidden-layer weights in neural networks. Muon addresses this mismatch by updating along the polar factor of a momentum matrix, but its theoretical understanding has lagged behind practice. In particular, practical implementations incorporate Nesterov momentum, compute the polar factor only approximately, and operate with stochastic gradients that may be heavy-tailed. We close this gap by developing a convergence theory for Muon with Nesterov momentum and inexact polar decomposition in non-convex matrix optimization under heavy-tailed noise. Our analysis builds on a unified framework for inexact polar decomposition that captures practical iterative approximations such as Newton-Schulz and quantifies how their errors propagate through the optimization dynamics. Under this framework, we establish an optimal iteration and sample complexity of $O \left(\varepsilon^{\frac{-(3α-2)}{(α-1)}} \right)$ for finding an $\varepsilon$-stationary point, where $α\in(1,2]$ denotes the heavy-tail index. For the inexact-polar setting with $σ_1=0$, we also provide guarantees that do not require prior knowledge of $α$. We analyze a randomized low-rank polar decomposition that is substantially more efficient than full-space methods while remaining compatible with our theory. Numerical experiments further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed inexact and randomized variants.

When modeling class-imbalanced data, it is crucial to address the imbalance, as models trained on such data tend to be biased towards the majority classes. This problem is amplified under partial supervision, where pseudo-labels for unlabeled data are predicted based on imbalanced labeled data, propagating the bias. While recent semi-supervised models address class imbalance, they typically assume single-modal input data. However, with the growing availability of multimodal data, it is essential to leverage complementary modalities. In this article, we propose a multimodal deep generative model for semi-supervised learning under class imbalance. Our approach uses separate encoders for each modality, sharing latent variables across modalities, and simplifies joint posterior computation with a product-of-experts method. To further address class imbalance, we replace typical Gaussian distributions with Student's t-distributions for the prior, encoder, and decoder, better capturing the heavy-tailed latent distributions in imbalanced data. We derive a new objective function for training the proposed model on both labeled and unlabeled data using $γ$-power divergence. Empirical results on benchmark and real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms baseline methods in generalization, achieving superior classification performance for partially labeled multimodal data with imbalanced class distributions.

Long-tailed distributions are common in real-world recognition tasks, where a few head classes have many samples while most tail classes have very few. Recently, fine-tuning foundation models for long-tailed learning has gained attention due to their excellent performance. However, most existing methods focus solely on mitigating long-tailed distribution bias while overlooking concept confusion caused by the long-tailed distribution. In this paper, we study this problem and attribute it to the mutual exclusivity of single-label supervision under long-tailed distributions, which suppresses feature sharing among related classes and amplifies the dominance of head classes, leading to disrupted inter-class discriminability. To address this, we propose CUE, Concept-aware mUlti-label Expansion, which introduces multi-label concept signals to preserve disrupted inter-class relationships. Specifically, CUE constructs concept sets by (i) extracting instance-level visual cues from zero-shot CLIP and (ii) generating class-level semantic cues with LLM; the two cues are incorporated via separately weighted Binary Logit-Adjustment (BLA) auxiliary losses and jointly optimized with the baseline Logit-Adjustment (LA) loss. Experiments on several long-tailed benchmarks, CUE achieves balanced and strong performance, surpassing recent state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at: https://github.com/zhangruichi/CUE.

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation in practice demands three properties simultaneously: heterogeneous effects $τ(x)$, calibrated uncertainty over them, and robustness to the heavy tails that contaminate real outcome data. Meta-learners (Künzel et al., 2019) give (i); causal forests and BART give (i)-(ii) with Gaussian-tail assumptions; no widely used tool gives all three. We present Bayesian X-Learner, an X-Learner built on cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes (Kennedy, 2020) with a full MCMC posterior over $τ(x)$ via a Welsch redescending pseudo-likelihood. On Hill's IHDP benchmark the default configuration attains mean $\sqrt{\varepsilon_{\mathrm{PEHE}}} = 0.56$ on 5 replications (lowest mean; differences from S-/T-/X-learners, full-config Causal BART, and a causal forest baseline are not significant at $α=0.05$, and rank ordering is unstable at 10 replications -- IHDP comparisons are competitive rather than dominant). On contaminated "whale" DGPs with up to 20-25% tail density, a one-flag extension (contamination_severity) that selects a Huber-$δ$ nuisance loss per Huber's minimax-$δ$ relation recovers RMSE $\approx 0.13$ with tight credible intervals (single-cross-fit 30-seed coverage 83% [Wilson 66%, 93%] at 20% density; modular-Bayes pooling with Bayesian-bootstrap nuisance draws restores nominal 95% coverage).

Ultra-reliable and low-latency communication (URLLC) will play a key role in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks, enabling mission-critical applications. Meeting the stringent URLLC requirements, characterized by extremely low packet error rates and minimal latency, calls for advanced statistical modeling to accurately capture rare events in wireless channels. Traditional methods, such as those that rely on large datasets and computationally intensive estimation techniques, often fail in real-time scenarios. In this paper, a novel framework is proposed to meet URLLC requirements through a synergistic integration of extreme value theory (EVT) with generative artificial intelligence (AI). EVT is used to model channel tail distributions, providing an accurate characterization of rare events. Concurrently, generative AI enables data augmentation and channel parameter estimation from limited samples. The integration of EVT with generative AI can thus help overcome the limitations of generative models in capturing extreme events during channel characterization. Using an experimental dataset collected from an automotive environment, it is demonstrated that this integration enhances data augmentation for extreme quantiles, while requiring fewer samples than traditional analytical EVT methods and generative baselines in online estimation of channel distribution.

Real-world data often exhibit long-tailed distributions with numerous noisy labels, substantially degrading the performance of deep models. While prior research has made progress in addressing this combined challenge, it overlooks the severe label-image mismatch inherent to high-noise settings, thereby limiting their effectiveness. Given that observed labels, though mismatched with images, still retain category information, we propose employing auxiliary text information from labels to address label-image inconsistencies in long-tailed noisy data. Specifically, we leverage the intrinsic cross-modal alignment in pre-trained visual-language models to correct the label-image inconsistencies. This supervisory signal, referred to as Weak Teacher Supervision (WTS), is unaffected by label noise and data distribution biases, albeit exhibits limited accuracy. Therefore, the activation of WTS is determined by evaluating the discrepancy between text-predicted labels and observed labels. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of WTS across synthetic and real-world datasets, particularly under high-noise conditions. The source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/WTS-0F3C.

Internet photo collections exhibit an extremely long-tailed distribution: a few famous landmarks are densely photographed and easily reconstructed in 3D, while most real-world sites are represented with sparse, noisy, uneven imagery beyond the capabilities of both classical and learned 3D methods. We believe that tackling this long-tail regime represents one of the next frontiers for 3D foundation models. Although reliable ground-truth 3D supervision from sparse scenes is challenging to acquire, we observe that it can be effectively simulated by sampling sparse subsets from well-reconstructed Internet landmarks. To this end, we introduce MegaDepth-X, a large dataset of 3D reconstructions with clean, dense depth, together with a strategy for sampling sets of training images that mimic camera distributions in long-tail scenes. Finetuning 3D foundation models with these components yields robust reconstructions under extreme sparsity, and also enables more reliable reconstruction in symmetric and repetitive scenes, while preserving generalization to standard, dense 3D benchmark datasets.

Modern neural networks can achieve high accuracy while remaining poorly calibrated, producing confidence estimates that do not match empirical correctness. Yet calibration is often treated as a post-hoc attribute. We take a different perspective: we study calibration as a training-time phenomenon on small vision tasks, and ask whether calibrated solutions can be obtained reliably by intervening on the training procedure. We identify a tight coupling between calibration, curvature, and margins during training of deep networks under multiple gradient-based methods. Empirically, Expected Calibration Error (ECE) closely tracks curvature-based sharpness throughout optimization. Mathematically, we show that both ECE and Gauss--Newton curvature are controlled, up to problem-specific constants, by the same margin-dependent exponential tail functional along the trajectory. Guided by this mechanism, we introduce a margin-aware training objective that explicitly targets robust-margin tails and local smoothness, yielding improved out-of-sample calibration across optimizers without sacrificing accuracy.

Camouflaged object detection (COD) segments objects that intentionally blend with the background, so predictions depend on subtle texture and boundary cues. COD is often needed under tight on-device memory and latency budgets, making low-bit inference highly desirable. However, COD is unusually hard to quantize aggressively. We study post-training W4A4 quantization of Transformer-based COD and find a task-specific cliff: heavy-tailed background tokens dominate a shared activation range, inflating the step size and pushing weak-but-structured boundary cues into the zero bin. This exposes a token-local bottleneck -- remove cross-token range domination and bound the zero-bin mass under 4-bit activations. To address this, we introduce COD-TDQ, a COD-aware Token-group Dual-constraint activation Quantization method. COD-TDQ addresses this token-local bottleneck with two coupled steps: Direct-Sum Token-Group (DSTG) assigns token-group scales to suppress cross-token range domination, and Dual-Constraint Range Projection (DCRP) projects each token-group clip range to keep the step-to-dispersion ratio and the zero-bin mass bounded. Across four COD benchmarks and two baseline models (CFRN and ESCNet), COD-TDQ consistently achieves an $S_α$ score more than 0.12 higher than that of the state-of-the-art quantization method without retraining. The code is available at https://github.com/MCG-NKU/nku-model-compre.

We study the tail behavior of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits for algorithms that are asymptotically optimal in expectation. While minimizing expected regret is the classical objective, recent work shows that even such algorithms can exhibit heavy regret tails, incurring large regret with non-negligible probability. Existing sharp characterizations of regret tails are largely restricted to parametric settings, such as single-parameter exponential families. In this work, we extend the $\KLinf$-UCB algorithm of to a broad nonparametric class of reward distributions satisfying mild assumptions, and establish its asymptotic optimality in expectation. We then analyze the tail behavior of its regret and derive a novel upper bound on the regret tail probability. As special cases, our results recover regret-tail guarantees for both bounded-support and heavy-tailed (moment-bounded) bandit models. Moreover, for the special case of finitely-supported reward distributions, our upper bound matches the known lower bound exactly. Our results thus provide a unified and tight characterization of regret tails for asymptotically optimal KL-based UCB algorithms, going beyond parametric models.

In contextual bilateral trade under full feedback, the posted price does not affect which valuations are observed. We show that in this model such action-independent feedback removes the polynomial adaptation penalty familiar from heavy-tailed bandits: fully parameter-free algorithms attain the oracle minimax $T$-exponents up to logarithmic factors, with no knowledge of the moment order $p \in (1,2)$ or its scale $σ_p$, and -- in the nonparametric case -- none of the effective Hölder smoothness $β\in (0,1]$. The statistic that makes model selection possible is a paired squared-loss difference, whose noise-square term cancels exactly, leaving noise damped by the candidate gap. The resulting bilateral-trade regret rates are new. Trader valuations have bounded conditional densities and heavy tails -- finite $p$-th moments for some $p \in (1,2)$, with possibly infinite variance. An epoch-based algorithm with truncated means achieves regret $\widetilde{O}(T^{(2-p)/p})$ in the parametric model and $\widetilde{O}(T^{1-2β(p-1)/(βp + d(p-1))})$ when the market value function is $β$-Hölder, with matching $Ω(\cdot)$ lower bounds -- under a mild nondegeneracy condition -- via Assouad's method and a fixed-support mixture construction -- characterizing the minimax rate in $T$ up to logarithmic factors over the effective smoothness range $β\in (0,1]$, interpolating between the classical nonparametric rate at $p{=}2$ and the trivial linear rate as $p \to 1^+$. The enabling structural step extends the self-bounding property of Bachoc et al. (ICML 2025) from bounded to real-valued valuations: within our conditionally independent, conditionally centered noise model, bounded conditional densities and finite first moments suffice for the expected regret of any price $π$ to satisfy $\mathbb{E}[g(m,V,W) - g(π,V,W)] \le L|m-π|^2$ -- no second moment is needed.

The batched multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, where rewards are collected in batches, is pivotal in applications like clinical trials. While prior work assumes light-tailed reward distributions, real-world scenarios often exhibit heavy-tailed outcomes. This paper addresses this gap by introducing robust batched bandit algorithms for heavy-tailed rewards in both multi-arm and Lipschitz settings. We uncover somewhat surprising phenomena for such problems -- heavier tails require fewer batches to achieve near-optimal regret in the instance-independent setting, as well as the Lipschitz setting. In sharp contrast, in the instance-dependent setting, the number of batches required to achieve near-optimal regret does not depend on the tail heaviness.

The factors driving the performance of in-context learning (ICL) in large language models (LLMs) remain poorly understood despite ICL's surprising effectiveness, enabling models to adapt to new tasks from only a handful of examples. To clarify and improve these capabilities, we characterize how the statistical properties of the pretraining distribution (e.g., tail behavior, coverage) shape ICL. We develop a theoretical framework that encompasses generalization and task selection and show how distributional properties govern sample efficiency, task retrieval, and robustness. To this end, we generalize existing concentration results to heavy-tailed priors and dependent sequences, better reflecting the structure of LLM pretraining data. Our framework reveals a fundamental design trade-off: heavy-tailed pretraining distributions facilitate robust task selection under distribution shifts but are detrimental to generalization, especially in low-data regimes. We then empirically evaluate our predictions by studying how ICL performance varies with the pretraining distribution on challenging tasks such as stochastic differential equations and stochastic processes with memory. Together, these findings suggest that controlling key statistical properties of the pretraining distribution is essential for building ICL-capable and reliable LLMs.

Accurately predicting the performance of active radio frequency (RF) circuits is essential for modern wireless systems but remains challenging due to highly nonlinear behavior and the high computational cost of traditional simulation tools. Existing machine learning (ML) surrogates often require large datasets to generalize across various topologies or are not accurate on held-out circuits. This work presents a lightweight, data-efficient, and topology-aware graph neural network (GNN) framework for predicting key performance metrics of active RF circuit classes, such as low-noise amplifiers (LNAs), mixers, voltage-controlled oscillators (VCOs), power amplifiers (PAs), and voltage amplifiers (VAs). The proposed framework employs RFIC domain-informed feature indexing to enable cross-topology adaptability by cheap encoding of functional device semantics (e.g., differential pair and varactor transistors) and efficient knowledge transfer. The surrogate model represents circuits using device-terminal graph abstractions to preserve fine-grained connectivity and transistor-level symmetry. The final model is generalized to a wide variety of classes by being trained in parallel. Experimental results demonstrate accurate modeling of multimodal and heavy-tailed RF performance distributions, achieving an average mean relative error (MRE) of 2.71% across nineteen topologies, an improvement of 3.3x and 20x faster in training over prior art, and the generalization to held-out topologies is improved by ~26.2x. Furthermore, this work shows ~36x training data efficiency compared to state-of-the-art, demonstrating its effectiveness for scalable and deployment-ready RF design automation.

Heavy-tailed posteriors are routine in Euclidean variational autoencoders, where the Student family relaxes the Gaussian without new machinery. The sphere has had no comparable option. Von Mises-Fisher distribution needs modified Bessel functions and a rejection sampler, and Power Spherical buys its closed forms by forcing the density to vanish at the antipode. We develop the spherical Cauchy distribution as a hyperspherical posterior that needs neither compromise. Stereographic projection carries it to a multivariate Student law, and a Möbius transformation turns a uniform spherical draw into an exact posterior sample from inner products, norms, and scalar arithmetic. The same transformation settles the regularizer. Evaluating the density along the sampling map reduces the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to the uniform prior to a scalar expectation whose expansion terminates in every even ambient dimension, leaving one logarithm and a polynomial with finitely many correction terms. Odd dimensions admit certified truncation of value and gradient, the KL is increasing and convex in concentration, and the same function gives the pairwise KL. At matched modal curvature it has broader angular tails and a smaller KL penalty than both alternatives, so equal local precision costs less regularization. In dimension 128 the fused evaluator runs 1.5 times faster per latent-layer step than Power Spherical and 4.2 times faster than robust von Mises-Fisher on CPU, with factors of 1.6 and 5.4 on CUDA. Across five paired seeds it attains the lowest MNIST reconstruction loss at every tested dimension and lowers held-out viewpoint-gap negative log-likelihood on smallNORB by 3.6 percent.

This paper develops a model-based framework for continuous-time policy evaluation (CTPE) in reinforcement learning, incorporating both Brownian and Lévy noise to model stochastic dynamics influenced by rare and extreme events. Our approach formulates the policy evaluation problem as solving a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the value function with unknown coefficients. A key challenge in this setting is accurately recovering the unknown coefficients in the stochastic dynamics, particularly when driven by Lévy processes with heavy tail effects. To address this, we propose a robust numerical approach that effectively handles both unbiased and censored trajectory datasets. This method combines maximum likelihood estimation with an iterative tail correction mechanism, improving the stability and accuracy of coefficient recovery. Additionally, we establish a theoretical bound for the policy evaluation error based on coefficient recovery error. Through numerical experiments, including a real-data BTC price experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method in recovering heavy-tailed Lévy dynamics and verify the theoretical error analysis in policy evaluation.

Motivated by the concept of satisficing in decision-making, we consider the problem of satisficing regret minimization in bandit optimization. In this setting, the learner aims at selecting satisficing arms (arms with mean reward exceeding a certain threshold value) as frequently as possible. The performance is measured by satisficing regret, which is the cumulative deficit of the chosen arm's mean reward compared to the threshold. We propose SELECT, a general algorithmic template for Satisficing REgret Minimization via SampLing and LowEr Confidence bound Testing, that attains constant expected satisficing regret for a wide variety of bandit optimization problems in the realizable case (i.e., a satisficing arm exists). As a complement, SELECT also enjoys the same (standard) regret guarantee as the oracle in the non-realizable case. To further ensure stability of the algorithm, we introduce SELECT-LITE that achieves a light-tailed satisficing regret distribution plus a constant expected satisficing regret in the realizable case and a sub-linear expected (standard) regret in the non-realizable case. Notably, SELECT-LITE can operate on learning oracles with heavy-tailed (standard) regret distribution. More importantly, our results reveal the surprising compatibility between constant expected satisficing regret and light-tailed satisficing regret distribution, which is in sharp contrast to the case of (standard) regret. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to validate the performance of SELECT and SELECT-LITE on both synthetic datasets and a real-world dynamic pricing case study.