Central Limit Theorem

In this paper, we study how to perform statistical inference for quantile temporal difference learning (QTD) in distributional reinforcement learning. Assuming access to a generative model, we first establish functional central limit theorems for both synchronous and asynchronous QTD, which show that the averaged iterates of QTD converge weakly to a rescaled Brownian motion. We next provide online inference methods. Based on random scaling, the inference procedure constructs an asymptotically pivotal statistic for inference by using the information along the whole QTD path. Meanwhile, the proposed statistic can be computed online without storing the entire trajectory of QTD iterates. This substantially reduces the memory requirement and enables efficient statistical inference in distributional reinforcement learning.

Constant-stepsize temporal-difference (TD) learning is attractive for policy evaluation, but inference from a single Markov trajectory must account for serial dependence and a stepsize-dependent stationary target. For fixed-stepsize linear TD, we establish a functional central limit theorem whose covariance retains the multiplicative component induced by the random TD matrix and the stationary iterate error. We then derive a joint functional limit for parallel Richardson--Romberg (RR) recursions driven by the same trajectory. A Brownian-bridge self-normalizer yields asymptotically pivotal confidence regions for prespecified state-value contrasts without estimating the long-run covariance or selecting a bandwidth or batch length. For such a contrast, the procedure admits a one-pass implementation whose memory does not grow with the trajectory length. At a fixed stepsize, the inferential center is the RR stationary target. We also study horizon-indexed designs in which the stepsize remains constant within each run and decreases across longer horizons. Under an explicit RR-dependent rate window, the residual RR target shift, multiplicative remainder, and initialization effect are negligible at the root-$n$ scale, yielding inference for the projected Bellman solution. Experiments on FrozenLake and Garnet illustrate stationary-target coverage, RR target correction, and the finite-sample behavior of the horizon-indexed design.

The paper develops the approach to the runtime analysis of evolutionary algorithms on the basis of limit theorems from probability theory. We consider the family of Jump$_k$ benchmark functions, defined on the search space of binary strings of length $n$, parametrized by the integer $k$, which have a plateau of multiple local optima at the Hamming distance $k$ from a unique global optimum. In this work, we consider the genetic algorithm $(1+(λ,λ)) GA$ from (Doerr, Doerr and Ebel, 2015) with tunable parameters of the mutation rate $p$, crossover bias $c$, and two intermediate population sizes $λ_M$ and $λ_C$. We study the time it escapes from the plateau of local optima and reaches the global optimum in the case of Jump$_k$ fitness function and tighten the upper bounds on the expected escape time, known from the work of Antipov, Doerr and Karavaev (2022). The obtained bounds also apply to a wider range of algorithmic parameters. The main result of this work applies to the case when $k\to \infty$ as $n \to \infty.$ The case of finite $k$ is investigated quite simply and considered tangentially.

We study the leading-order fluctuation of stochastic gradient Euler-Maruyama estimators for generalized non-reversible Langevin dynamics. Under structural assumptions tailored to the small-stepsize central limit theorem and under an unbiased stochastic gradient oracle, we prove that the empirical average over a horizon of order the inverse squared stepsize satisfies a central limit theorem in the vanishing-stepsize regime. The limiting variance is characterized through the Poisson equation of the limiting full-gradient diffusion. We then rewrite this constant in an operator form that links it to the continuous-time asymptotic variance and, under standard operator-theoretic assumptions, derive a sufficient condition under which an anti-symmetric perturbation strictly reduces the leading-order fluctuation constant relative to the reversible baseline. We also identify bounded smooth predictive observables that re directly covered by the main theorem. As a separate Gaussian calculation beyond the bounded-test-function regime, we obtain closed-form formulas for quadratic Hamiltonians and linear observables. The framework covers non-reversible Langevin dynamics and augmented-state examples including Hessian-free high-resolution dynamics and a positive-definite subclass of gradient-adjusted underdamped Langevin dynamics that allow stochastic gradients. Numerical experiments on basic examples and Bayesian linear regression using synthetic data, and Bayesian logistic regression using real data support the predicted Gaussian fluctuations and show that the non-reversible schemes consistently reduce the root mean squared error (RMSE) relative to their reversible baselines.

In this article, we analyse convergence of the averaged Adam optimizer to an attracting zero of the Adam vector field. We provide a central limit theorem that, in particular, quantifies exactly the speed of convergence. The order of convergence is $n^{-1/2}$ in the number of steps of the algorithm which coincides with the order observed for classical stochastic approximation algorithms. The covariance in the central limit theorem is given in terms of properties of the Adam algorithm in the state of the attractor.

We analyze the variance of temporal difference (TD) learning using the phased setting with tabular representation, and show that one of the mechanisms behind its ability to reduce variance is by effectively aggregating over a larger number of independent trajectories. Based on this insight, we demonstrate that (1) the variance of TD is asymptotically bounded from above by Monte Carlo (MC) estimators, and (2) shorter horizon updates incurs less variance for a fixed number of samples. Beyond TD, we show that Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE), a method for estimating the advantage function, can be seen as a type of regression-adjusted control variate, which achieves a tighter bound on the variance compared to TD in the large-sample limit. Finally, we numerically illustrate the behaviors of these estimators with carefully designed environments.

To leading order under local asymptotic normality (LAN), the confidence density a worker emits over a chunk of size $n$ is a Gibbs--Boltzmann measure $\exp\{-βE(θ)\}$ whose inverse temperature is the sample size, $β=n$. Three consequences are exact in the Gaussian/linear case and first-order otherwise: disjoint chunks carry independent Boltzmann factors, so the MapReduce \emph{reduce}, read literally, is a partition function $Z=\int\prod_k h_k\,dθ$ whose mode is precision-weighted (inverse-variance) pooling; frequentist consistency is the zero-temperature limit $T=1/n\to0$

Compositional priors describe the generic properties of layered functions in deep Bayesian models, where deep neural networks with random weights are a canonical example.In the wide-network limit, the prior is a Gaussian process with a depth-dependent kernel, and its behaviour as depth grows has been extensively studied through this kernel. Here, we study another case, where each layer itself is a vector valued Gaussian process, and our aim is similarly to understand the limiting behaviour of the prior as depth grows. Previous GP work has established that for the RBF kernel and a certain range of bandwidths $r$, the prior degenerates in the limit, converging to the set of constant functions -- which is not useful as a probabilistic model. In this paper we establish several new results. First, we identify a sharp bandwidth threshold $r_c(d) = Θ(\sqrt{d})$ above which the limit is degenerate, strengthening the earlier bounds. Second, and more importantly, we show that for $r$ below the threshold $r_c(d)$ the prior converges to a limit distribution $π_{\bar{Z}}$. We also prove that these distributions are non-degenerate and non-Gaussian, with non-vanishing dependence between coordinates. In contrast to the previously known degenerate regime, deep Gaussian process priors can therefore admit non-trivial limits. Empirically, we verify the threshold across a range of dimensions $d$, and demonstrate a complex multimodal behaviour of the limit distributions $π_{\bar{Z}}$ -- a regime that becomes increasingly narrow with $d$ and would be hard to identify without knowing the threshold.

Uncertainty quantification in neural networks prediction is a main issue for usual applications. Our approach seeks at reducing computation costs by directly evaluating uncertainty using PDE's information on the asymptotic variance, rather than the deep ensemble method which may be seen as a Monte Carlo estimation of the prediction, requiring the training of multiple networks. We thus study the law of the limiting process describing the random fluctuations around the mean-field limit of wide two-layer neural networks trained by stochastic gradient descent in a weak-noise regime. Building on a recent trajectorial central limit theorem, in which this limit is characterized as the weak solution of a linear stochastic evolution equation, we identify its law explicitly. More precisely, we show that it is a centered Gaussian process in the dual of a weighted Sobolev space, and we derive a closed covariance representation for the finite-dimensional distributions obtained by testing it against smooth functions. This covariance is expressed through the solution of a backward transport equation with a nonlocal source term, whose coefficients are driven by the mean-field trajectory. As a consequence, by testing against the activation function at a fixed input, we obtain an expression for the limiting variance of the corresponding network-output fluctuations. We illustrate this result numerically on a one-dimensional regression example.

Asymptotic statistical theory is a challenging domain for AI-assisted formalization: its central results mix convergence statements, asymptotic expansions, functional analysis, and regularity conditions that have a large gap from existing infrastructure in Lean 4 formalization. To address these challenges, we propose a hypothesis-disciplined Lean 4 formalization pipeline built from multiple agents: a manager that coordinates seven specialist roles for proof planning, skeleton scaffolding, Mathlib reconnaissance, proof construction, integration, independent review, and audit. The main methodological discipline is the hypothesis-disciplined audit, implemented by the Auditor agent: every main-theorem hypothesis and concept-layer field must be anchored in the source mathematical prose, justified as a Lean encoding adapter, marked as source-implied, or rejected as an unsupported strengthening. Using this workflow, we build a systematic formalization of asymptotic statistical theory, especially the parametric and semi-parametric models' asymptotic distribution and efficiency results. The resulting Lean development is axiom-clean and source-faithful, with Lean-checked and human-audited proofs of core parametric and semi-parametric theorems organized so that theorem-agnostic infrastructure and statistical concept definitions are separated from theorem-specific assembly. The formalization results are available at https://github.com/junwei-lu/Lean-Asymptotic-Statistical-Theory.

Finite-width fully connected neural networks with Gaussian-initialized weights deviate from their infinite-width Gaussian limit, exhibiting non-vanishing higher-order cumulants. We approximate these deviations, for a neural network evaluated in a finite number of inputs, using multidimensional Edgeworth expansions of arbitrary order $4m-1$, with $m\in\mathbb{N}$. Assuming that the corresponding Gaussian limit has an invertible covariance matrix and that the activation function is polynomially bounded, we establish a bound of order $n^{-m}$ on the total variation distance between the law of the true network output and its Edgeworth approximation, with matching lower bounds. As an application, we quantify the error in Bayesian posterior distributions when the prior is replaced by its Edgeworth expansion. Our results are more general and also apply to sequences of conditionally Gaussian vectors converging to a Gaussian vector with invertible covariance.

In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak--Ruppert averaged iterates generated by entropy-regularized asynchronous Q-learning with linear function approximation and a polynomial stepsize $k^{-ω}$, $ω\in (1/2,1)$. Assuming that the sequence of observed triples $(s_k,a_k,s_{k+1})_{k \geq 0}$ forms a uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chain, and under suitable regularity conditions for the projected soft Bellman equation, we establish a Gaussian approximation bound in the convex distance with rate of order $n^{-1/4}$, up to polylogarithmic factors in $n$, where $n$ is the number of samples used by the algorithm. To obtain this result, we combine a linearization of the soft Bellman recursion with a Gaussian approximation for the leading martingale term. Finally, we derive high-order moment bounds for the algorithm's last iterate, which might be of independent interest.

Designing model-free algorithms for distributionally robust reinforcement learning (DRRL) poses fundamental challenges. The robust Bellman operator is nonlinear in the transition kernel, which makes one-sample Bellman updates biased, while the adversarial optimization underlying robustness makes robust evaluation computationally demanding. To address these difficulties, we consider the natural small-ambiguity regime under Kullback--Leibler ambiguity sets and propose an approximate DRRL framework based on a first-order expansion of the relevant robust functional. This yields an approximate robust Bellman equation that removes the adversarial optimization while remaining first-order accurate in the ambiguity radius. To learn the fixed point of this approximate equation, we propose Mean-Variance Stochastic Approximation (MVSA), a model-free algorithm that uses only one-sample updates. This is achieved via a lifted stochastic approximation dynamics and a two-time-scale design. We then prove convergence and a central limit theorem for MVSA: its main iterate satisfies a central limit theorem at the canonical $n^{-1/2}$ scale, with explicitly characterized asymptotic covariances. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with a numerical experiment.

We consider the problem of two-sample testing in a semi-supervised setting with abundant unlabeled covariate data. Standard two-sample tests neglect covariate information, which has the potential to significantly boost performance. However, incorporating covariates potentially breaks the exchangeability assumption under the null, which further complicates a calibration procedure. To address these issues, we propose a semi-supervised method that produces a test statistic with asymptotic normality, while effectively integrating additional information from covariates. Our test is straightforward to calibrate due to the asymptotic normality under the null and achieves asymptotic power that is often much higher than existing kernel tests without covariates. Furthermore, we formally show that the proposed method is consistent in power against fixed and local alternatives. Simulations confirm the practical and theoretical strengths of our approach.

We establish central and non-central limit theorems for sequences of functionals of the Gaussian output of an infinitely-wide random neural network on the d-dimensional sphere . We show that the asymptotic behaviour of these functionals as the depth of the network increases depends crucially on the fixed points of the covariance function, resulting in three distinct limiting regimes: convergence to the same functional of a limiting Gaussian field, convergence to a Gaussian distribution, convergence to a distribution in the Qth Wiener chaos. Our proofs exploit tools that are now classical (Hermite expansions, Diagram Formula, Stein-Malliavin techniques), but also ideas which have never been used in similar contexts: in particular, the asymptotic behaviour is determined by the fixed-point structure of the iterative operator associated with the covariance, whose nature and stability governs the different limiting regimes.

We consider linear two-time-scale stochastic approximation algorithms driven by martingale noise. Recent applications in machine learning motivate the need to understand finite-time error rates, but conventional stochastic approximation analyses focus on either asymptotic convergence in distribution or finite-time bounds that are far from optimal. Prior work on asymptotic central limit theorems (CLTs) suggests that two-time-scale algorithms may be able to achieve $1/\sqrt{K}$ error in expectation, with a constant given by the expected norm of the limiting Gaussian vector. However, the best known finite-time rates are much slower. We derive the first nonasymptotic Wasserstein-1 CLT for linear two-time-scale stochastic approximation with Polyak-Ruppert averaging driven by martingale difference noise. As a corollary, we show that the expected error achieved by Polyak-Ruppert averaging decays at rate $1/\sqrt{K}$, which significantly improves on the rates of convergence in prior works.