LLM Uncertainty Estimation

LLM: Large Language Model

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38 papers in the last four weeks, up 111% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems
Apr 26, 2026Boming Xia, Liming Zhu, Erdun Gao +3Uncertainty Quantification LLM Uncertainty Estimation
1Responsible AI Research (RAIR) Centre · 2Adelaide University · 3CSIRO +1
Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning
Apr 25, 2026Liaoyaqi Wang, Chunsheng Zuo, William Jurayj +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models RL for Language Model Reasoning
Johns Hopkins University
Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Function-Calling
Apr 24, 2026Zihuiwen Ye, Lukas Aichberger, Michael Kirchhof +5Uncertainty Quantification LLM Tool Use
University of Oxford · Apple
How LLMs Detect and Correct Their Own Errors: The Role of Internal Confidence Signals
Apr 24, 2026Dharshan Kumaran, Viorica Patraucean, Simon Osindero +2LLM Self-Correction Language Model Error Detection
Google DeepMind · Princeton University
Calibration Drift Under Reasoning: How Chain-of-Thought Budgets Induce Overconfidence in Large Language Models
Apr 24, 2026Prakul Sunil Hiremath, Harshit R. HiremathConfidence Estimation in Language Models CoT Reasoning
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi · Department of Computer Science and Business System SG Balekundri Institute of Technology, Belagavi
Verbal Confidence Saturation in 3-9B Open-Weight Instruction-Tuned LLMs: A Pre-Registered Psychometric Validity Screen
Apr 24, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliLLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia
Are LLM Uncertainty and Correctness Encoded by the Same Features? A Functional Dissociation via Sparse Autoencoders
Apr 21, 2026Het Patel, Tiejin Chen, Hua Wei +2LLM Interpretability LLM Reliability
University of California, Riverside, CA · Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ
Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
Apr 21, 2026Thomas Zollo, Jimmy Wang, Richard ZemelConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
Columbia University
Mind the Unseen Mass: Unmasking LLM Hallucinations via Soft-Hybrid Alphabet Estimation
Apr 21, 2026Hongxing Pan, Yingying Guo, Wenqing Kuang +1Uncertainty Quantification LLM Hallucination Detection
School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
WebUncertainty: Dual-Level Uncertainty Driven Planning and Reasoning For Autonomous Web Agent
Apr 20, 2026Lingfeng Zhang, Yongan Sun, Jinpeng Hu +5Web Search Agents Monte Carlo Tree Search
Hefei University of Technology · Academy of Cyber, CETC Group
Concurrent Criterion Validation of a Validity Screen for LLM Confidence Signals via Selective Prediction
Apr 20, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliLLM Evaluation Selective Prediction
Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia
Screen Before You Interpret: A Portable Validity Protocol for Benchmark-Based LLM Confidence Signals
Apr 20, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliLLM Evaluation Psychometric Validation
Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia
Before You Interpret the Profile: Validity Scaling for LLM Metacognitive Self-Report
Apr 20, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliPsychometric Validation LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia
Beyond "I Don't Know": Evaluating LLM Self-Awareness in Discriminating Data and Model Uncertainty
Apr 19, 2026Jingyi Ren, Ante Wang, Yunghwei Lai +5LLM Evaluation Selective Prediction
Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Tech., Institute for AI, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China · Institute for AI Industry Research (AIR), Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Instinct vs. Reflection: Unifying Token and Verbalized Confidence in Multimodal Large Models
Apr 19, 2026Yunkai Dang, Yifan Jiang, Yizhu Jiang +3Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models
School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University.
SeekerGym: A Benchmark for Reliable Information Seeking
Apr 18, 2026Remy Kim, Minseung Lee, Shuo Li +1AI Agent Reliability Agentic Search
University of Pennsylvania, Curation Labs · Curation Labs · Google DeepMind +1
Complementing Self-Consistency with Cross-Model Disagreement for Uncertainty Quantification
Apr 18, 2026Kimia Hamidieh, Veronika Thost, Walter Gerych +2Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models
1MIT · MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab · 3WPI +1
Know When to Trust the Skill: Delayed Appraisal and Epistemic Vigilance for Single-Agent LLMs
Apr 17, 2026Eren UnluLLM Agents LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Globeholder Paris, France
Beyond Surface Statistics: Robust Conformal Prediction for LLMs via Internal Representations
Apr 17, 2026Yanli Wang, Peng Kuang, Xiaoyu Han +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Conformal Prediction
Imperial College London · Zhejiang University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +1
Learning Uncertainty from Sequential Internal Dispersion in Large Language Models
Apr 17, 2026Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen +1Hallucination in Language Models LLM Hallucination Detection
Nanyang Technological University · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Centre for AI Research, VinUniversity
MADE: A Living Benchmark for Multi-Label Text Classification with Uncertainty Quantification of Medical Device Adverse Events
Apr 16, 2026Raunak Agarwal, Markus Wenzel, Simon Baur +3Multi-Label Classification Healthcare
Department of Artificial Intelligence Fraunhofer Heinrich Hertz Institute Berlin, 10587, Germany
IUQ: Interrogative Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Large Language Model Generation
Apr 16, 2026Haozhi Fan, Jinhao Duan, Kaidi XuUncertainty Quantification Language Model Generation Evaluation
University of Pennsylvania · 2UNC Chapel Hill · 3City University of Hong Kong
The Missing Knowledge Layer in AI: A Framework for Stable Human-AI Reasoning
Apr 16, 2026Rikard Rosenbacke, Carl Rosenbacke, Victor Rosenbacke +1LLM Uncertainty Estimation AI Governance
Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Sweden · Department of Economics, Lund University School of Economics and Management, Sweden · Department of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
CURA: Clinical Uncertainty Risk Alignment for Language Model-Based Risk Prediction
Apr 16, 2026Sizhe Wang, Ziqi Xu, Claire Najjuuko +2Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Washington University in St. Louis
A Robust Evaluation of Probe Robustness: Lessons for Reliable OOD Uncertainty Quantification
Apr 13, 2026Joe Stacey, Hadas Orgad, Kentaro Inui +2LLM Evaluation Uncertainty Quantification
University of Sheffield · Kempner Institute at Harvard University · MBZUAI +2
LLM Evaluation as Tensor Completion: Low Rank Structure and Semiparametric Efficiency
Apr 7, 2026Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei SunSemiparametric Inference LLM Evaluation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Purdue University
GRADE: Probing Knowledge Gaps in LLMs through Gradient Subspace Dynamics
Apr 3, 2026Yujing Wang, Yuanbang Liang, Yukun Lai +2LLM Interpretability LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Beihang University · Cardiff University · King’s College London
From Guessing to Placeholding: A Cost-Theoretic Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Code Completion
Apr 2, 2026Liang Zhu, Haolin Chen, Lidong Zhao +1Code Generation LLM Uncertainty Estimation
1Tencent, Shenzhen, China
Measuring (some aspects of) the metacognition of AI
Mar 31, 2026Richard Servajean, Philippe ServajeanLLM Evaluation LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Center for Brain Science, RIKEN, Saitama, Japan. · National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tokyo, Japan. · Department of Psychology, Paul-Val´ery University, Montpellier, France.
An Isotropic Approach to Efficient Uncertainty Quantification with Gradient Norms
Mar 31, 2026Nils Grünefeld, Jes Frellsen, Christian HardmeierUncertainty Quantification LLM Uncertainty Estimation
1IT University of Copenhagen · 3Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence · 2Technical University of Denmark

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Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems

Boming Xia, Liming Zhu, Erdun Gao, Qinghua Lu+2

1Responsible AI Research (RAIR) Centre · 2Adelaide University · 3CSIRO+1

Uncertainty Quantification LLM Uncertainty Estimation Uncertainty Propagation

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Uncertainty in large language model (LLM)-based systems is often studied at the level of a single model output, yet deployed LLM applications are compound systems in which uncertainty is transformed and reused across model internals, workflow stages, component boundaries, persistent state, and human or organisational processes. Without principled treatment of how uncertainty is carried and reused across these boundaries, early errors can propagate and compound in ways that are difficult to detect and govern. This paper develops a systems-level account of uncertainty propagation. It introduces a conceptual framing for characterising propagated uncertainty signals, presents a structured taxonomy spanning intra-model (P1), system-level (P2), and socio-technical (P3) propagation mechanisms, synthesises cross-cutting engineering insights, and identifies five open research challenges.

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