Monotonic Inventory Estimation

Burnout is a chronic occupational syndrome, and open source is close to a worst case for it: maintainers absorb unbounded demand with no manager to reallocate work and no organization to notice decline. The cost is not only personal. Burnout precedes withdrawal, and in projects sustained by a handful of maintainers, one departure can break infrastructure that thousands of downstream systems depend on. Yet the field has no way to see it coming: self-report inventories, the only existing measure, miss exactly the contributors most in need of detection and cannot be applied retroactively, so the field cannot even ask how common burnout is or what helps. We present BurnRiSc, a framework that operationalizes the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory's two dimensions, exhaustion and disengagement, as 14 behavioral and linguistic signals computed from GitHub activity and scored against each contributor's own history. The signals aggregate into two weighted dimension scores, with weights learned from labeled cases, and average into a monthly Burnout Risk Score (BRS). In a preliminary evaluation across 68 contributors in ten repositories (ten disclosed burnout cases, twelve comparable-volume collapses, and 46 comparison contributors), sustained BRS elevation precedes 6 of 10 disclosures by 6-15 months, 8 of 10 when adding peak BRS as a second criterion, and 10 of 10 over any prior time frame. We thus present BurnRiSc as evidence that burnout is screenable from public data.

We study the strategic design of a two-echelon spare-parts inventory network where evaluating each candidate topology requires an expensive inventory optimization model. The design partitions hundreds of sites into feasible clusters and selects a central replenishment site for each cluster to reduce costs while maintaining service levels. Because the optimizer favors candidates with high predicted savings, it can exploit optimistic surrogate errors. We develop a conservative framework combining a graph neural network ensemble, variable neighborhood search, and set-partitioning recombination. The surrogate is trained on exact cluster evaluations, while a lower quantile of ensemble-predicted savings guides the search to limit optimism. Clusters found during the search are recombined through set partitioning using surrogate-based objective coefficients. The resulting network is evaluated with the exact inventory model, and only this evaluation is used to report performance. In a case study of 246 fulfillment centers in Amazon's North American network, the framework improves combined savings by 30.5% over an optimization baseline based entirely on exact cluster evaluations, while maintaining approximately 99.8% service across six independent replications. Under equal computational budgets, graph-surrogate-guided search achieves higher mean exact savings than a tabular alternative under both scoring schemes. Conservative scoring improves mean savings for both surrogate classes and reduces the share of final-network clusters overestimated by the graph surrogate from 68% to 28%. Predictive and ranking accuracy deteriorate among search-generated candidates with high surrogate scores, indicating that random holdout performance can incompletely characterize surrogate quality during optimization.

Firms making inventory decisions have access to operational data, optimization tools, and large language models (LLMs). Typically, data characterize the operating environment, optimization selects parameters within a prespecified inventory policy class, and LLMs support coding and decision analysis. We develop an integrated framework that combines these resources to automate inventory policy design. Given demand data, the framework iteratively uses an LLM to generate parameterized policy classes and an external solver to optimize its parameters within each class. Across 30 lost-sales inventory instances, the mean cost reduction relative to optimized base-stock benchmarks increases from 17.5% after one generation to 30.0% after ten generations. Parameter optimization is central to this performance: an LLM-only variant performs substantially worse, whereas optimization-guided feedback improves policy quality, accelerates search, and directs the LLM toward better policy classes rather than merely better parameter values within a fixed class. The strongest discovered policies are also interpretable: they combine recognizable inventory-control motifs, including capped orders, discounted or weighted pipeline inventory, and threshold-based replenishment logic. The search thereby produces new policy-class functional forms that, to our knowledge, have not previously been studied in the lost-sales inventory literature. These functional forms are not specified ex ante but emerge from the search process. Moreover, after their parameters are re-optimized, three discovered policy classes achieve average cost reductions of 21.75% to 22.60% across 10,064 new inventory instances. Overall, the results show that data-driven parameter optimization can guide LLM-based search over a broad space of inventory policy classes and identify high-performing, interpretable, and transferable decision rules.

Modern supply chain operations can require coordinating replenishment across thousands of heterogeneous items under correlated stochastic demand, heterogeneous lead times, and shared fixed ordering costs, yielding observation spaces exceeding $10^4$ dimensions. At this scale, rolling-horizon stochastic mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs) become prohibitively slow, while standard reinforcement learning (RL) methods face increasingly challenging credit assignment in high-dimensional action spaces. We introduce OR-Transformer, a deep reinforcement learning framework for joint replenishment under stochastic demand, with an item-permutation-equivariant Transformer architecture and pathwise-gradient training through the inventory dynamics. Across problem sizes up to 1,024 inventory items, OR-Transformer increasingly outperforms learning-based and rolling-horizon MILP baselines as scale grows. It also reduces online decision-making time by over 4 million times relative to MILP solvers, enabling real-time, large-scale deep RL in supply chain operations.

Feature-based newsvendor models use observable covariates to tailor inventory decisions, aiming to balance holding and shortage costs under demand uncertainty. However, high-dimensional feature sets often hinder interpretability and inflate data collection and implementation costs. This paper studies variable selection for the feature-based newsvendor problem under a hard cardinality constraint on the number of selected features. We formulate the resulting $\ell_0$-constrained empirical newsvendor problem with $\ell_2$-regularization, establish its computational hardness, and develop a mixed-integer second-order cone programming reformulation that strengthens the standard Big-$M$ formulation. To enable scalability beyond exact optimization, we develop a randomized-rounding algorithm with a bi-criteria guarantee and a greedy heuristic. Statistically, we provide theoretical analysis of the resulting sparse policy estimator, including finite-sample estimation error, out-of-sample risk bounds, and support recovery guarantees. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data illustrate the computational and statistical trade-offs among various baselines. Our results demonstrate that the proposed variable selection framework achieves competitive out-of-sample operational costs while using substantially fewer covariates.

In online retailing, when a product sells out, a retailer often sees only the units sold, not how many customers would have bought it had inventory been available. However, the inventory level determines how much demand is revealed, and this information can influence subsequent decisions and future profits. We study an online selling problem in which, in each round, the seller observes a market context and then makes pricing and stocking decisions based on censored sales data from previous rounds. The challenge is to learn a context-dependent pricing and stocking policy without assuming a particular formula for demand or observing realized profit. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a Mean-Calibrated Kernel UCB (MCK-UCB) algorithm that turns each incomplete sales record into a reliable guide for both inventory and price decisions, using data from past rounds with similar market conditions. This design allows us to learn while serving customers, without a separate exploration phase or the need to recover all demand hidden by stockouts. We prove the minimax optimality of the proposed algorithm, with strictly faster rates when expected profit varies more smoothly with price. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Many operational problems are constrained sequential decision processes with large, combinatorial action spaces and interdependent feasibility constraints. Mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs) handle such constraints flexibly but scale poorly in stochastic environments. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) promises scalable decision rules, but existing methods either penalize constraints rather than enforce them, or rely on feasibility mechanisms that break down once constraints interact. We bridge this gap by embedding a differentiable convex optimization module inside the policy: a neural network proposes continuous action targets, a quadratic program projects them onto the relaxed feasible set, and a dual-informed integer mapping restores integrality while preserving feasibility. Given a differentiable simulator, the policy trains end to end from sampled trajectories using pathwise gradients, while handling hard constraints with similar flexibility to MILPs. We show that our feasibility enforcement has bounded error relative to an exact integer projection and ensures the entire feasible action space is reachable. We apply the method to multi-echelon production-inventory planning under shared resource and material constraints. Our policy attains an average optimality gap below 1% on small instances. It further outperforms state-of-the-art echelon base-stock policies by up to 9.75% and a rolling-horizon multi-stage stochastic program by at least 7.7% in larger networks. On an industry-scale case study from ASML, it reduces average cost by up to 3.22% relative to the best-known benchmark policy. The savings are largest where planning is hardest: in tightly capacitated systems with high demand variability. More broadly, our work shows that DRL can deliver economically significant savings in sequential decision problems with interdependent hard constraints, which are widespread in practice.

Can supply-chain AI move beyond isolated decision modules toward unified operational planning? A complete replenishment plan specifies which products each location carries, which upstream facility supplies it, how often it is replenished, and how deliveries are routed. These decisions are operationally coupled: the selected assortment changes the demand and load passed to later stages; source assignment and replenishment frequency reshape the delivery requests; and route feasibility and cost, in turn, determine the system value of the earlier choices. Yet in modern supply chains, these decisions are often handled by separate departments and optimized through separate systems, which can lead to stockouts, inventory exposure, and avoidable transportation. We propose SCOPE: Supply-Chain Operations through Coupled Policies for End-to-End Coordination, a composite policy model that represents supply-chain entities as tokens, contextualizes them through a shared operational representation, and maps each token type to the corresponding decision interface. Each decision builds on the partial plan formed by earlier decisions while the completed plan is evaluated using a shared system-level utility. We instantiate this framework in urban fresh-retail replenishment, where service frequency, assortment, capacity pressure, and road-network routing interact strongly, and evaluate it on real operational data from Dingdong and JD.com, two large-scale supply chains operating at different replenishment echelons. Across both settings, SCOPE consistently outperforms methods that optimize each decision stage separately, as well as practice-oriented baselines commonly used in supply-chain operations. These results show that learning and coordinating cross-department operational couplings lead to more effective end-to-end supply-chain decisions.

Multi-warehouse inventory allocation is typically formulated as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem, yet no single formulation consistently matches heterogeneous instance-level regimes induced by demand concentration, inventory imbalance, replenishment scale, service constraints, and forecast volatility. We study this issue as instance-wise operations research (OR) formulation selection, where each allocation instance is assigned to a solver-executable formulation from a candidate OR expert library. We propose a solver-guided large language model (LLM) framework for OR formulation selection, in which each OR expert corresponds to a MIP formulation encoding a distinct allocation priority. To train the selector, the framework first constructs balanced expert-conditioned supervised fine-tuning (SFT) records for schema learning, and then uses MIP solver evaluation on historical instances to convert solver-evaluated allocation-quality gaps into margin-weighted identity preference optimization (IPO) preferences and per-instance expert-score metadata for reward lookup during group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to assign rewards to sampled responses. Experiments on multi-warehouse inventory allocation instances from JD$\mathord{.}$com, one of China's largest e-retailers, demonstrate that GRPO substantially improves expert-selection accuracy relative to the SFT+IPO selector and, more importantly, produces higher realized allocation quality than both the preference-trained selector and the best fixed formulation. With GRPO, Hit Ratio@1 and Hit Ratio@2 increase from 21.45% to 50.42% and from 70.47% to 82.31%. The resulting selector achieves an allocation accuracy gain of 12.57 percentage points over the incumbent baseline, outperforming both the SFT+IPO selector and the best fixed OR expert, and reduces the gap to the ex-post oracle to 4.85 percentage points.

Machine learning demand forecasts optimize statistical accuracy yet leave excess operational volatility that inflates safety stock and amplifies the Bullwhip effect. We introduce \textbf{Contextual Deconvolution} (CD), a two-stage estimator that reframes demand sensing as a convex decomposition: a kernel-modulated banded operator separates transient promotion-driven shocks from a smooth structural baseline, and hierarchical partial pooling enables catalog-scale deployment without per-SKU training. The operator is data-derived, not imposed---it reduces to the identity wherever the promotional response is impulsive (most of M5, all of Favorita) and contributes only where genuine multi-day carryover exists, so the gains rest on the structural decomposition itself. Evaluating strictly out-of-sample on 30,490 M5 SKUs and 2,845 Favorita items, with calendar-aware baselines given CD's identical future calendar, we anchor the contribution on a full inventory-cost accounting: CD lowers safety stock, holding cost, and order variance but under-provisions event spikes, reducing total cost only when holding costs exceed $\sim$20% of stockout costs (95% CI $[17\%,25\%]$); otherwise it is an operational-stability and inventory-capital layer, not an expected-cost minimizer. Its accuracy contribution is reliability rather than central tendency: across eleven baselines, CD attains the lowest cross-sectional dispersion of per-SKU error and mis-forecasts by more than 200% on 0.8% of SKUs versus 9.9--20.6% for every baseline, ranking first on both in all four M5 draws. Because the Variance Ratio and std-based safety stock are minimized by any sufficiently smooth forecast, we treat them as diagnostics, not objectives. A supporting analysis shows the learned demand operators are non-normal, yet CD's compact parametric kernel matches their operational performance interpretably.

Source apportionment from sparse urban air-quality sensors is an inverse problem limited by sensor placement, wind-driven transport, background variation, and noise. Known or proxy emission inventories make attribution meaningful by restricting the unknown source field to a finite set of candidate groups, but do not guarantee those groups are distinguishable from the observations. We represent time-varying source activity with a low-dimensional nonnegative temporal basis and formulate inventory-based apportionment as a wind-conditioned lagged inverse problem in which each source--basis coefficient produces a sensor-time fingerprint. After projecting out a separate low-dimensional background space, the relevant object is the projected lagged response matrix $\widetilde H_Φ$: exact identifiability at the chosen basis resolution requires its full column rank, while noise-robust attribution is controlled by its singular values, coefficient visibility, background absorption, pairwise coherence, and ray distance. We propose an identifiability-aware apportionment (IASA) framework that estimates nonnegative source--basis coefficients, reconstructs activity trajectories, and reports uncertainty and conservative grouping recommendations for indistinguishable sources. We instantiate it on a New Delhi platform built from government PM$_{2.5}$ and wind records, regulatory sensor locations, and four proxy source groups, and define controlled and observed evaluations of recovery, ambiguity, wind diversity, background stress, transport error, inventory robustness, and residual adequacy. IASA reports the attribution resolution defensible under the declared inventories, transport, background, lag, and noise rather than the most detailed possible vector.

Many operational decisions rely on predictive models that estimate uncertain outcomes conditional on observable contexts. Training such models, however, often faces a fundamental data asymmetry: labeled outcomes are scarce or costly to obtain, while contextual covariates are abundant. Motivated by this data asymmetry, we develop a decision-aware weak-to-strong (W2S) framework that leverages both labeled and unlabeled data to improve contextual stochastic optimization. Specifically, we first train a weak model using limited labeled data and then use it to generate predicted outcome distributions on unlabeled contexts. These distributions provide soft supervision for training a strong model. We establish a non-asymptotic upper bound on the excess decision risk of W2S and a complementary lower bound for a strong-only benchmark. Their comparison yields explicit sufficient conditions under which W2S improves downstream decision performance. The key quantity is the correlation dimension between the weak and strong feature representations: when it is small, abundant unlabeled data reduce the effect of teacher errors along non-overlapping directions. A synthetic newsvendor experiment and a comment moderation experiment based on real-world data provide empirical evidence consistent with the theory.

This paper introduces SupplyNetPy, an open-source, well-documented Python library for modeling and discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks with arbitrary multi-echelon structures. It supports multiple replenishment policies, perishable inventory, node disruptions, and stochastic demand and lead times. All components are extensible via inheritance. Users describe a supply chain as a graph with node and link attributes, while the library handles simulation, providing logs and extensive node and network level performance reports. This paper presents the motivation, design, key features, and architecture of SupplyNetPy, along with detailed validation results (against analytical benchmarks, a commercial tool, and a published case study). A key motivation behind SupplyNetPy's development is programmatic generation and simulation of complex models, enabling design-space exploration, what-if analysis, training data generation, and supply chain digital twins.

In two-sided marketplaces with heterogeneous products, it is important to understand the causal relationship between additional supply and marketplace outcomes, such as the total quantity transacted or transaction value in the marketplace. This paper studies a causal machine learning approach to estimating this relationship across product segments. We use the Airbnb marketplace as an example, focusing on the impact of additional listing supply on total bookings, but the methodology applies to other two-sided marketplaces. Our approach combines double/debiased machine learning with a hierarchical Bayesian framework that leverages pre-existing knowledge as priors. We construct tractable and informative features for the model by leveraging measures of product segment similarity from the geospatial literature. We find that such a model provides plausible estimates of the marketplace returns to additional supply and strong out of sample performance.

Balance-oriented multi-warehouse inventory allocation is a recurring decision problem in large-scale e-commerce supply chains, in which a fixed replenishment quantity is distributed across warehouses to balance post-allocation inventory coverage while accounting for demand forecasts and heterogeneous allocation constraints. In practice, allocation requirements are often scenario-dependent and expressed in semi-structured or natural-language form rather than as ready-to-solve operations research (OR) formulations. We propose an OR-guided Large Language Model (LLM) for Allocation (ORLA) that uses solver feedback to generate, verify, and select OR formulations. ORLA integrates automatic "Problem-Model-Code (PMC)" generation, learning-based formulation selection, and feasibility restoration. We develop three complementary mixed-integer programming formulation families based on deviation minimization, soft band compliance, and knapsack-inspired allocation, together with solver-ready mixed-integer linear programming reformulations, modular constraint extensions, and a penalty-based relaxation mechanism for infeasible cases. The LLM component generates candidate formulations and executable solver code from textual or semi-structured specifications, while the solver provides verification signals for executability, feasibility, and solution quality. To address instance heterogeneity, ORLA estimates the expected quality of candidate formulations, selects promising candidates, and combines their outputs through score-aware aggregation. Experimental results on 29 production evaluation batches from JD.com show that the best single OR formulation improves allocation accuracy by 3.4 percentage points over the incumbent approach, while the full ORLA framework achieves a 4.5 percentage-point overall improvement and improves allocation accuracy in 26 of the 29 evaluation batches.

In skill-constrained production-inventory systems, the qualified human capacity available tomorrow depends on training decisions made today: production requires certified workers, certifications decay unless maintained, and training consumes the same scarce worker hours that production needs now. We study a closed-loop skill-constrained model predictive controller that, at every shift, solves a finite-horizon mixed-integer program over production, inventory, backlog, and training, with binary predicted certification, hard production eligibility, and an interpretable terminal value that prices certified-capacity gaps at the horizon boundary; only the first-period action is applied before replanning. On synthetic, seed-controlled SkillChain-Gym scenarios - announced and surprise new-skill shocks, demand shocks, absenteeism, forecast- and availability-quality modes, capacity-boundary and training-rate sweeps, and negative controls - we evaluate the controller against production-only and maintenance-only ablations, static cross-training insurance plans, and a strong reactive heuristic, under an ex-ante locked configuration and paired statistics. The result is regime dependence, not superiority: no policy class dominates. Predictive control helps when skill or labor bottlenecks are forecastable early enough for training to complete; lean static insurance remains hard to beat under surprise shocks, near the demand-capacity boundary, and wherever pre-shock slack makes insurance cheap. Attribution ablations separate certification maintenance, re-acquisition of lapsed certifications, and greenfield skill acquisition. Forecastability, not adaptivity per se, decides when predictive control pays.

Production planning increasingly has to treat workforce capability as a decision variable: certifications lapse when skills are not maintained, new products require skills the current workforce does not hold, and reskilling competes for the same worker hours needed for production. Existing operations benchmarks usually treat labor as exogenous, while workforce-planning models with skills and learning are rarely released as reusable testbeds. We introduce SkillChain-Gym, a benchmark specification for reskilling-aware production-inventory control: a single-site environment with stylized worker skill-state dynamics, hard threshold certification, forgetting, and capacity-consuming training actions constrained by the same per-worker time budget as production. The benchmark includes seed-controlled disruption scenarios, three feasibility modes with projection diagnostics, deterministic replay, and metrics covering operations, resilience, capability growth, and training-access distribution. We evaluate production-only, reactive adaptive, water-filling adaptive, and static-insurance policies with budget variants over 60-shift horizons with paired statistical tests. The results are regime-dependent rather than a ranking. Training-capable policies dominate the production-only baseline, and maintenance training is necessary under forgetting even without disruptions. Among training-capable classes, adaptive training helps when bottlenecks are visible in the forecast, while a lean static cross-training plan, a deliberately favorable comparator whose structure encodes relevant skill contingencies, acts as strong insurance under surprise shocks and absenteeism. Capacity slack and the forgetting rate govern the boundary between these regimes. No policy class dominates across regimes, motivating forecast-driven controllers that decide when to buy skill insurance and when to react.

Online inventory optimization (OIO) is online convex optimization with physical memory: inventory carryover makes the feasible action set depend on the past. A natural principle, used in stochastic inventory learning and recently in OIO under a single linear capacity constraint, is to maintain a hidden target chosen by an online learner and implement its projection onto the currently feasible order-up-to set. We prove that this simple principle is optimal for OIO on arbitrary bounded convex capacity sets. With online gradient descent as the base learner, the method improves the best known regret guarantee for OIO on general convex sets from inverse to inverse-square-root dependence on the common-demand probability, and we prove a matching lower bound. The same principle gives the first polylogarithmic regret guarantee for strongly convex losses and the first dynamic regret guarantee adapting to Euclidean path variation on general convex capacity sets. The analysis introduces a norm alignment principle: the right state variable is the distance from the hidden target to the feasible set, measured in the same norm as the projection. Under norm alignment, this distance evolves pathwise as a scalar queue, with target movement as arrival and common demand as service. This reduction to one-dimensional queue control resolves the state dependence and extends the guarantees to general convex capacity sets, beyond the reach of prior productwise approaches. Experiments on synthetic and real-world inventory data corroborate the theory.

AI inference services -- API subscriptions, enterprise chat tools, and SaaS products with embedded AI features -- fall unambiguously within Scope 3 Category 1 under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), which requires disclosure for fiscal years starting January 2024. Yet no standardised methodology exists for including them in corporate GHG inventories. Current practice either omits the category entirely or applies a generic economic input-output (EEIO) factor calibrated to the ICT sector as a whole, overestimating AI inference emissions by 10-40x relative to physically derived alternatives. We propose a four-tier framework that matches estimation precision to the data organisations can realistically obtain, progressing from direct token-based physical estimation -- using GPU energy benchmarks and regional grid carbon intensities -- down to a spend-based EEIO fallback for services where no usage data exists. Emission factors are derived from peer-reviewed GPU energy benchmarks (ML.ENERGY Leaderboard v3), confirmed grid carbon intensities (EPA eGRID 2023; Ember 2023), and published water use effectiveness data (Li et al., 2025). Applied to a 200-person European firm, the framework yields a total below 1 tCO2e, illustrating that the compliance challenge is methodological rather than magnitude-driven. We further document a water-carbon trade-off that current ESG tools do not surface: Sweden's hydro-dominated grid delivers the lowest carbon intensity in our dataset but the highest water footprint, with direct implications for data centre location strategy.

Large-scale retail and industrial forecasting systems contain many heterogeneous time series whose lifecycle, sparsity, volatility, seasonality, spectral patterns, and contextual sensitivity differ substantially. A single forecasting model rarely performs well across all regimes, while dense ensembles increase inference cost and provide limited insight into expert suitability. This paper studies forecastability-aware expert routing: learning how data characteristics determine the suitability of forecasting experts. We propose \method{}, a sparse mixture-of-experts framework that represents each series with a multidimensional forecastability fingerprint, mines expert-suitability targets from validation performance, and trains a cost-aware sparse router to activate a small budgeted set of experts for each series. Using a production-scale vending-machine sales dataset from Shandong New Beiyang (SNBC), where the forecasting component has been integrated into the replenishment-planning pipeline, together with public retail benchmarks, we show that expert suitability varies systematically across data regimes. On the industrial dataset with 5,000+ machines and 60M+ transactions, \method{} Top-2 reduces MSE by 12.4% over the strongest single expert, LightGBM, while executing 1.92 experts per series on average. The deployed component produces demand forecasts, while inventory-oriented gains are estimated by an offline replay simulator under a fixed replenishment policy rather than by online intervention. The framework turns heterogeneous sales forecasting from heuristic model selection into data mining of forecastability patterns and expert specialization. Code is available at https://github.com/hit636/FAME

Pharmaceutical supply chains (PSCs) struggle with inventory management (IM) due to unpredictable demand patterns and variable lead times associated with restocking. This complexity is further compounded by the finite shelf lives of pharmaceutical products, which necessitate a delicate balance between adequate stock and minimal waste. These intertwined factors create a complex optimization problem that requires sophisticated inventory strategies to ensure both product availability and PSC efficiency. This study aims to develop an optimal inventory replenishment policy for pharmaceutical products that can handle the stochasticity arising from uncertain demand and variable PSC conditions. The objective is to maximize the profitability of the PSC while maintaining a high patient service level. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and propose a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach, specifically, a hybrid asynchronous advantage actor critic distributed proximal policy optimization (A3C DPPO)algorithm. The A3C DPPO algorithm is tailored to handle the continuous action space inherent in IM. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm adaptively updates the inventory replenishment strategy under dynamic scenarios, resulting in lower inventory costs compared to various benchmarks. We also conduct numerical validation using real-world pharmaceutical inventory data to confirm the practical feasibility of the proposed algorithm.

This paper studies the performance and reliability of autonomous generative AI agents in multi-echelon supply chains using the MIT Beer Game. We examine how model choice, operational guardrails, centralized data sharing, and prompt design affect system performance. In our best-performing configuration, GenAI agents reduce total supply-chain costs by up to 80% relative to human teams. Despite strong average performance, autonomous agents can exhibit substantial run-to-run instability, generating volatile procurement decisions and large tail costs. We characterize this phenomenon as agent bullwhip, the amplification of decision instability in autonomous multi-agent systems. We show that this instability can propagate across echelons and compound over time, even when the underlying demand path is held fixed. We then evaluate two approaches for improving reliability: reinforcement-learning post-training and operational guardrails. Both reduce tail events and mitigate agent bullwhip, but they operate through different mechanisms and require different levels of information and model access. Reinforcement-learning post-training delivers the largest gains in reliability and system performance when system-level feedback is available, while guardrails provide a simple training-free alternative for constraining extreme decisions.

We study inventory control with decision-dependent censoring, focusing on the censored or repeated newsvendor (R-NV), where each order quantity determines whether demand is fully observed or censored by sales. Existing approaches based on parametric Thompson sampling (TS) can be brittle under prior mismatch, while offline imputation methods need not transfer to online learning. Motivated by the predictive view of decision making, we combine these ideas by taking oracle actions on learned completions of latent demand. We propose in-context generative posterior sampling (ICGPS), which uses modern generative models that are meta-trained offline and deployed online by in-context autoregressive generation. Theoretically, we show that the Bayesian regret of ICGPS with a learned completion kernel is bounded by the Bayesian regret of a TS benchmark with the ideal completion kernel plus a deployment penalty scaling as $\sqrt{T}$ times the square root of the completion mismatch. This yields a plug-in template for operational problems with known TS regret bounds. For R-NV, we derive sublinear Bayesian regret by reducing censored feedback to bandit convex optimization feedback. We also show that, under reasonable coverage and stability assumptions, the online completion mismatch is controlled by the offline censored predictive mismatch, so offline predictive quality transfers to online performance. Practically, we instantiate ICGPS with ChronosFlow, which combines a frozen time-series transformer backbone with a trainable conditional normalizing-flow head for fast censoring-consistent sampling. In benchmark experiments, ChronosFlow-ICGPS matches correctly specified TS, outperforms myopic and UCB-style baselines, and is robust to prior mismatch and distribution shift. ChronosFlow-ICGPS also performs well for the real-world SuperStore dataset, especially under heavy censoring.

Inventory-policy comparisons are often difficult to interpret because performance depends on the evaluation contract as much as on the policy itself. Differences in topology, demand regime, information access, feasibility constraints, shortage treatment, and Key Performance Indicator (KPI) definitions can change method rankings. We present gym-invmgmt, a Gymnasium-compatible extension of the OR-Gym inventory-management lineage for auditable cross-paradigm evaluation. The benchmark evaluates optimization, heuristic, and learned controllers under a shared CoreEnv transition, reward, action-bound, and KPI contract, while varying stress conditions through a 22-scenario core grid plus four supplemental MARL-mode rows. Within these released scenarios, informed stochastic programming provides the strongest non-oracle reference, reflecting the value of scenario hedging under forecast access, but at substantially higher online computational cost. Among learned controllers, the Proximal Policy Optimization Transformer variant (PPO-Transformer) achieves the strongest learned-policy quality at fast inference, while Residual Reinforcement Learning (Residual RL) provides competitive hybrid performance. The graph neural network variant (PPO-GNN) is highly competitive on the default divergent topology but less robust on the serial topology. Imitation learning performs well in stationary regimes but degrades under demand shift, and the bounded Large Language Model (LLM) policy-parameter baseline is best interpreted as a diagnostic controller rather than an autonomous inventory optimizer. Overall, the benchmark identifies scenario-conditioned leaders while showing that performance depends jointly on information access, demand shift, topology, and policy representation.

Multi-robot systems in automated warehouses must manage continuous streams of pickup-and-delivery tasks while ensuring efficiency and safety. Prior work on Multi-Agent Pickup-and-Delivery (MAPD) has largely focused on the one-to-one variant, where each task has a fixed pickup and delivery location. In contrast, real warehouses often present many-to-many MAPD scenarios, where items, tracked by stock keeping unit (SKU) identifiers, can be retrieved from or stored at multiple locations, resulting in an NP-hard four-dimensional assignment problem. To solve the many-to-many MAPD problem, we contribute our algorithm: Many-to-Many Multi-Agent Pickup and Delivery (M2M). We experiment with two variants of our algorithm: one that minimizes estimated task durations (M2M), and one which incorporates SKU distribution into the objective function (M2M-wSKU). Simulation results over 8-hour warehouse operations show that our method consistently matches or outperforms prior state of the art, with M2M completing up to 22,000 more tasks on average across different environments and warehouse inventory densities.

Many real-world resource allocation systems, such as humanitarian logistics and vaccine distribution, must preposition limited supply across multiple locations before demand is realized while stockouts incur irreversible service losses. To study this, we introduce the Online Shared Supply Allocation (OSSA) problem, a stateful online model in which a central hub allocates a finite, unknown supply to multiple sites facing sequential demand under fixed-charge transportation costs and lost-sales penalties. Unlike classical make-to-stock or make-to-order inventory models, OSSA precludes backlogging and replenishment only hedges against future demand. To tackle OSSA, we propose a deterministic threshold-proportional policy GPA and prove that it achieves a $4/3$-approximation to the offline optimum up to an additive term independent of the total supply. We complement this with matching lower bounds showing that the $4/3$ ratio is tight and that the additive-error dependence is unavoidable, even for randomized algorithms that know the total supply upfront. Finally, we develop a learning-augmented extension to GPA that principally incorporates imperfect forecasts (e.g., from human experts or ML models) commonly available in practice, enabling us to exploit high-quality advice while being robust against arbitrary bad ones. Synthetic and real-world experiments show that GPA outperforms natural baselines with global supply is scarce.

We study how large language models can be used to generate inventory policies in online settings with non-stationary demand. Our work is motivated by recent advances in LLM-based evolutionary search, such as AlphaEvolve, which demonstrates strong performance on static and highly structured problems such as mathematical discovery, but is not directly suited to dynamic inventory settings with online updates. We propose InvEvolve, an end-to-end inventory policy evolution and inference framework grounded in confidence-interval-based certification. Built on a large language model trained via reinforcement learning, InvEvolve can process demand data together with additional numerical and textual features, and generates white-box inventory policies with statistical safety guarantees for future deployment. We further introduce a unified framework with theoretical guarantees that connects training, inference, and deployment. This allows us to derive a lower bound on the probability that InvEvolve evolves a statistically safe and improved policy, and to characterize the multi-period performance gap relative to the oracle-safe benchmark. Tested on both synthetic data and real-world retail data, InvEvolve outperforms classical inventory policies and deep-learning-based methods. In canonical inventory settings, it generates new policies that outperform existing benchmarks.

Supply chain resilience and efficiency are vital in industries characterized by volatile demand and uncertain supply, such as textiles and personal protective equipment (PPE). Traditional forecasting and optimization approaches often operate in isolation, limiting their real-world effectiveness. This paper proposes a Hybrid AI Framework for Demand-Supply Forecasting and Optimization (HAF-DS), which integrates a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based demand forecasting module with a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) optimization layer. The LSTM captures temporal and contextual demand dependencies, while the optimization layer prescribes cost-efficient replenishment and allocation decisions. The framework jointly minimizes forecasting error and operational cost through embedding-based feature representation and recurrent neural architectures. Experiments on textile sales and supply chain datasets show significant performance gains over statistical and deep learning baselines. On the combined dataset, HAF-DS reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from 15.04 to 12.83 (14.7%), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) from 19.53 to 17.11 (12.4%), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) from 9.5% to 8.1%. Inventory cost decreased by 5.4%, stockouts by 27.5%, and service level rose from 95.5% to 97.8%. These results confirm that coupling predictive forecasting with prescriptive optimization enhances both accuracy and efficiency, providing a scalable and adaptable solution for modern textile and PPE supply chains.

Reach and Frequency (R&F) contract advertising is an important form of widely used brand advertising. Unlike performance advertising, R&F contracts emphasize controllable delivery of UV and PV under given targeting, scheduling, and frequency control constraints. In practical systems, advertisers typically need to view the UV, PV change curves at different budget levels in real time when creating an R&F contract. However, most existing publicly available advertising datasets are based on independent samples, lacking a characterization of the core structure of the "budget-performance curve" (including UV and PV) in R&F contracts.This paper proposes and releases a large-scale R&F contract inventory estimation dataset. This dataset uses the R&F contract context consisting of "targeting-scheduling-frequency control" as the basic context, providing observations of UV and PV corresponding to multiple budget points within the same context, thus forming a complete budget-performance curve. The dataset explicitly includes a time-window-based frequency control mechanism (e.g.,"no more than 3 times within 5 days") and naturally satisfies the monotonicity and diminishing marginal returns characteristics in the budget and scheduling dimensions. We further derive the theoretical maximum exposure ceiling and use it as a consistency check to evaluate data quality and the feasibility of model predictions. Using this data set, this paper defines two standardized benchmark tasks: single-point performance prediction and reconstruction of budget-performance curves, and provides a set of reproducible baseline methods and evaluation protocols. This dataset can support systematic research on problems such as structural constraint learning, monotonic regression, curve consistency modeling, and R&F contract planning.The code for our experiments can be found at https://github.com/pengyunshan/RF-Inventory.

Assortment optimization has received active explorations in the past few decades due to its practical importance. Despite the extensive literature dealing with optimization algorithms and latent score estimation, uncertainty quantification for the optimal assortment still needs to be explored and is of great practical significance. Instead of estimating and recovering the complete optimal offer set, decision-makers may only be interested in testing whether a given property holds true for the optimal assortment, such as whether they should include several products of interest in the optimal set, or how many categories of products the optimal set should include. This paper proposes a novel inferential framework for testing such properties. We consider the widely adopted multinomial logit (MNL) model, where we assume that each customer will purchase an item within the offered products with a probability proportional to the underlying preference score associated with the product. We reduce inferring a general optimal assortment property to quantifying the uncertainty associated with the sign change point detection of the marginal revenue gaps. We show the asymptotic normality of the marginal revenue gap estimator, and construct a maximum statistic via the gap estimators to detect the sign change point. By approximating the distribution of the maximum statistic with multiplier bootstrap techniques, we propose a valid testing procedure. We also conduct numerical experiments to assess the performance of our method.