Post-Processing

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4 papers in the last 28 days · 0.1% of indexed attention

Twelve weeks of publication activity for this topic as it is defined today.

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Period ending 2026-09-14

2 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Post-Processing.

Period ending 2026-09-07

2 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Post-Processing.

20 papers

Latest in Post-Processing

Sep 11, 2026cs.CV

Pre- and Post-Treatment Brain Metastases Segmentation Using nnU-Net with Post-Processing for BraTS 2026

Brain metastases exhibit high inter-lesion variability in size, enhancement pattern, and post-treatment appearance, making volumetric segmentation of both pre- and post-treatment cases the central challenge of the BraTS 2026 Task 1 (Brain Metastases). We build a pragmatic pipeline on a 5-fold nnU-Net ResEnc-L ensemble, in which each fold is trained independently for 1,000 epochs with the standard Dice + cross-entropy loss on 1,296 four-modality training cases. This ensemble is followed by a rule-based post-processing cascade tuned for the lesion-wise Dice similarity coefficient (LW-DSC), a detection-oriented metric that behaves very differently from the traditional global Dice. The final pipeline reaches an LW-DSC of 0.733 / 0.751 / 0.713 / 0.549 on the enhancing tumour (ET), tumour core (TC), whole tumour (WT), and resection cavity (RC) sub-regions on the official validation leaderboard. Rather than trusting these leaderboard gains, we audit every post-processing stage with a five-fold out-of-fold (OOF) analysis with no model-training leakage over all 1,296 training cases, scored with the official BraTS evaluation code (BraTS_evaluation): it confirms two stages as robust, per-fold-consistent improvements while the third improves only the leaderboard and does not reproduce out-of-fold. We further provide a mechanistic analysis of the LW-DSC metric that explains why recall-recovering post-processing carries low risk whereas component deletion does not, and we report thirteen negative results spanning loss engineering, alternative backbones, and inference-time settings, several of which run counter to widely held intuitions. Source code is released under Apache-2.0 at https://github.com/hornbeamliu/brats2026-met.
Haobin Liu, Xin Wang
Sep 7, 2026cs.LG

Statistical versus machine learning-based spatial interpolation of post-processed ensemble weather forecasts

Statistical post-processing improves ensemble weather forecasts, but generating calibrated predictions at locations without observations remains challenging. This study compares statistical and machine-learning-based methods for post-processing ECMWF 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed forecasts at observed and unobserved stations in Germany. We consider EMOS-based approaches, distributional regression networks, Transformers, and graph neural networks under both limited and extended predictor settings. For temperature, we also investigate linear forecast combinations and propose an altitude-aware linear pool (ALP). The results show that post-processing improves upon the raw ensemble in most settings, but no single method performs best across all variables, station groups, and evaluation metrics. The proposed ALP provides a small but significant improvement over the standard linear pool at unobserved locations.
Mária Lakatos
Sep 3, 2026cs.CV

Sharpening the Ensemble: An SSIM-Aligned Residual Refiner for Brain-MRI Inpainting Post-Processing

Brain-MRI inpainting replaces a masked region of a scan with synthesized, anatomically plausible healthy tissue, so that analysis tools built for healthy brains can be applied to images they would otherwise reject. On the BraTS local-synthesis benchmark, which ranks submissions on the structural similarity index (SSIM), the peak signal-to-noise ratio, and the mean squared error (MSE) jointly, the strongest recent models are accurate, but several report blurry synthesized regions and attribute this to the mean-seeking behavior of the 1\ell_1 and MSE terms in their training losses. We address this in post-processing, forming a deep ensemble of the two co-first-place 2025 models and training a lightweight residual refiner on the ensemble's own outputs under an 1\ell_1 loss augmented with a structural-similarity term whose weight λλ we vary. At a moderate λλ the refiner improves SSIM over the ensemble, from 0.87670.8767 to 0.87800.8780 on a held-out reproduction of the official scorer and from 0.85550.8555 to 0.85720.8572 on the official validation leaderboard, with essentially no change in MSE. The gain is small but consistent, improving 62.6%62.6\% of the held-out cases with a signed-rank p=2.2×107p=2.2\times10^{-7}, whereas over-weighting the structural term reverses it. Two ablations bound the effect. Adding any third model to the two-model ensemble degrades it, and classical unsharp masking fails to improve SSIM at any strength (best 0.87650.8765 against 0.87670.8767), so the gain reflects learned rather than indiscriminate sharpening. The result is a cheap, reproducible post-processing stage that improves an already strong ensemble without any large-scale retraining.
Kubilay Kağan Kömürcü, İlkay Öksüz
Sep 3, 2026cs.RO

Automated Weld Seam Recognition and 3D Mapping for Robotic Post Processing Using Photogrammetry and Semantic Segmentation

Accurate identification of weld seam geometries is essential for automated robotic post processing operations such as grinding, finishing, and inspection. For large workpieces, complete surface scanning using high precision laser scanners or structured light sensors can be time consuming and often generates substantial amount of data that are not relevant. This paper presents an experimental vision based pipeline for the approximate localization of weld seams. This serves as a preliminary stage before high precision measurement. The proposed approach aims to reduce the overall scanning effort and data acquisition efficiency. The proposed method includes capturing images of the workpiece from multiple viewpoints, identifying weld seams from the images using semantic segmentation, reconstructing the workpiece using photogrammetry, and projection of identified weld seams into the reconstructed model.
Augustin Raju, Abilash Madavath, Chandra Yuvesh Aubeeluck +3
Jul 28, 2026cs.CV

Face De-Identification: A Domain-Centric Survey from Capture to Processing

Face de-identification (De-ID) aims to remove or conceal personally identifiable facial features in images or videos to prevent identity recognition while preserving utility for downstream tasks. With the rising emphasis on data privacy and responsible AI, face De-ID has emerged as an active research area spanning computer vision and privacy-preserving communities. Early approaches, and many contemporary ones, operate in the digital domain by modifying pixel-level or appearance-level features through post-capture processing. Recent advances extend face De-ID beyond post-processing by integrating privacy mechanisms directly into sensors during image acquisition, bridging sensing systems and downstream vision algorithms. In parallel, physical-domain methods explore wearable accessories and materials that conceal identity information in real-world environments prior to capture. In this survey, we present the first unified overview that spans the full data acquisition pipeline, encompassing the physical, sensor, and digital domains. Through this domain-centric lens, we systematically analyze current methodologies, technical progress, and the distinct challenges inherent to each stage. We then review and organize existing evaluation protocols, examining current practices and highlighting the critical need for standardized, comprehensive benchmarks. Finally, we identify key open problems and outline emerging research directions to guide future work in this rapidly evolving field. To support ongoing research, we maintain a project page that organizes relevant literature with collected datasets and open source code: https://github.com/CV-AC/Awesome-FaceDe-ID.
Hui Wei, Hao Yu, Guoying Zhao
Jul 21, 2026cs.AI

LLM Detection as an Intervention: Downstream Impact under Strategic User Behavior

As LLM adoption becomes more widespread, there is a growing interest in detecting LLM-generated content, for example through LLM detection tools and through heuristics based on language patterns. Detectors operate as an intervention that steers not only the detected attribute itself, but also downstream metrics such as LLM usage and output quality. In this work, we demonstrate how imperfect LLM detectors lead to counterintuitive impacts on these downstream metrics, by distorting how users are incentivized to use LLMs in their workflow. We develop a stylized model which captures how users strategically choose how much to use the LLM and how to post-process content to reduce the detected attribute. Using this model, we show that LLM detection can counterintuitively lead humans to increase their LLM usage. Moreover, even when reducing the detected attribute improves output quality, we find that introducing an LLM detector can lead users to produce lower quality outputs. In contrast, we show that detectors result in a clean "rise-then-fall" pattern for the detected attribute, which we empirically reproduce for word frequencies on arXiv abstracts. Altogether, our work illustrates how LLM detection can distort LLM usage and output quality, uncovering failure modes when LLM detectors operate as an intervention on these downstream metrics.
Meena Jagadeesan, Tatsunori Hashimoto, Jon Kleinberg
Jun 26, 2026cs.LG

Fair Classification with Efficient and Post-hoc Controllable Fairness-Accuracy Trade-off

Post-hoc controllability of fair machine learning models, the ability to control the trade-off between fairness and accuracy after training, is valuable for practical deployment. Existing post-processing methods provide such post-hoc controllability but often suffer from significant accuracy degradation, whereas in-processing methods achieve efficient trade-offs but require computationally expensive retraining for each change in trade-off ratio. To achieve both post-hoc controllability and efficient trade-offs, we propose a novel fair classification algorithm that learns effective feature representations to improve the trade-off efficiency of post-processing fair classifiers, by a gradient-based optimization approach. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves trade-off efficiency comparable to, or even surpassing, in-processing methods, without requiring any retraining.
Maaya Sakata, Kazuto Fukuchi
Jun 24, 2026cs.IR

Scoring Is Not Enough: Addressing Gaps in Utility-fairness Trade-offs for Ranking

Scoring functions are used to represent the relevance of individual documents. In modern information retrieval or recommendation systems, they are often learned from data and play a pivotal role in ranking sets of documents or items in a way that maximizes utility to a query or user. With the recent interest in algorithmic fairness, the success of scoring has naturally led to methods that learn scores that simultaneously trade off fairness and utility. In this work, we show that in stark contrast with utility-centric objectives, scoring is sub-optimal in achieving all utility-fairness trade-offs. We establish this with a series of counter-examples with a generic fairness formulation. We show that the issue persists whether we have a deterministic scoring function or a randomized one, or whether we measure fairness at the scope of a single query or across multiple queries. On the positive side, we empirically demonstrate that semi-greedy post-processing has the potential to achieve much better trade-offs, often approaching the ideal of exhaustive post-processing in a tractable way.
Shubham Singh, Ian A. Kash, Mesrob I. Ohannessian
Jun 9, 2026cs.CV

Dissect and Prune: Enhancing Robustness in AI-Generated Image Detection

While existing AI-generated image detectors report high performance, we identify that this is largely driven by a critical prediction asymmetry: a bias toward the real class that severely limits sensitivity to generated content, especially under standard post-processing operations such as compression and resizing. We hypothesize that this stems from the model's reliance on spurious features, distracting signals that obscure true generative artifacts. To address this, we propose DEAR (Dissect and Prune), which leverages inpainted images to identify and prune these interfering components. Specifically, we find that features strongly aligned to either inpainted or non-inpainted regions are less robust to post-processing. By measuring the alignment between channel activations and inpaint masks, DEAR removes features at both extremes, retaining only those that capture genuine generative artifacts. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances robustness against unseen generators and post-processing, effectively mitigating the prediction asymmetry. Our code is available at https://github.com/dahyedahye/dear.
Dahye Kim, Jaehyun Choi, Hyun Seok Seong +4
Jun 8, 2026cs.CV

SoccerNet 2026 Player-Centric Ball-Action Spotting:Retraining and Post-Processing Extensions to the FOOTPASS Baselines

We describe our system for the SoccerNet 2026 Player-Centric Ball-Action Spotting Challenge, which requires predicting who performs which action and when, across eight classes in broadcast soccer. Building on the three FOOTPASS baselines [1] (TAAD, TAAD+GNN, and TAAD+DST), we contribute four extensions: (1) gradient check pointing to enable full-backbone fine-tuning on a single GPU; (2) fusion of GNN logits into the DST encoder, combining graph-based tactical context with per-player visual features; (3) square-root frequency class weighting to address the 213:1 pass-to-tackle imbalance in the training data; and (4) a post processing pipeline comprising per-class logit gating, temporal frame refinement, jersey re-assignment, and a two-model ensemble. Our system achieves 0.548 Macro F1 on the test set and 0.446 on the challenge set (server evaluation).
Parthsarthi Rawat
Jun 7, 2026stat.ML

Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts

Statistical post-processing has proven to be an effective tool in improving ensemble forecast of different weather variables. Case studies show that post-processing can remedy the typically underdispersive and potentially biased behaviour of the ensemble while optimizing a proper scoring rule expressing the forecast skill. The price of these positive effects is generally a deterioration in sharpness; the width of the central prediction intervals and the uncertainty of the predictions are increasing, especially for shorter lead times. This work aims to reduce the extent of the latter phenomenon for neural network-based parametric post-processing methods by extending the network's loss function with a penalty term. We demonstrate the effect of the proposed technique for 2m temperature ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts downloaded from the EUPPBench benchmark dataset and verified against synoptic observations. Here, the predictive distribution is Gaussian, and we use the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as loss function. The case studies confirm a substantial relative decrease (8.2%12.5%8.2\%-12.5\%) in the width of the nominal central prediction interval compared to the width of the predictive distribution computed without the penalty term, while there is no deterioration in the mean CRPS of probabilistic forecasts and in the RMSE of the predictive mean.
Ágnes Baran, Máté Mihalina
Jun 4, 2026cs.LG

Domain-Adapted Small Language Models with Hybrid Post-Processing: Achieving Cost-Efficient, Low-Latency Multi-Label Structured Prediction via LoRA Fine-Tuning on Scarce Data

Deploying frontier large language models (LLMs) for domain-specific structured evaluation tasks incurs prohibitive latency, cost, and data-privacy overhead. We present a hybrid framework that fine-tunes a small language model (LLaMA 3.1 8B, 2.05% trainable parameters via LoRA) on only 219 curated examples and couples it with a deterministic rule-based postprocessing layer. Applied to multi-label compliance evaluation of conversational transcripts (18 heterogeneous output fields), our system achieves 100% JSON structural validity, 83.0% human-validated overall accuracy, and 100% accuracy on the most critical classification field in blind evaluation on 53 unseen production transcripts. On a single NVIDIA A100 GPU, inference completes in \sim2 seconds -- 2--5x faster than frontier APIs -- at USD 0.013 per evaluation versus USD 0.025--0.055 for proprietary alternatives, yielding 46--76% cost savings. We introduce targeted hard-negative augmentation for critical decision boundaries and formalize the hybrid neural-symbolic decomposition, demonstrating that domain-adapted small language models with postprocessing can match frontier model accuracy while dramatically reducing operational cost, latency, and privacy risk.
Srinivasan Manoharan, Dilipkumar Nallusamy, Sachin Kumar +1
May 28, 2026cs.AI

Aligned but Fragile: Enhancing LLM Safety Robustness via Zeroth-Order Optimization

Safety alignment for large language models (LLMs) aims to reduce harmful or unsafe behavior while preserving general utility. However, recent findings reveal that alignment effects can be fragile: lightweight post-alignment manipulations, such as parameter noise, activation noise, or quantization, can easily weaken the intended safety behavior. Prior efforts to improve robustness have primarily focused on data curation, modified alignment objectives, and safety-critical parameter identification, leaving the role of the optimizer itself largely unexplored. In this paper, we are the first to study the robustness of safety alignment from the perspective of the base optimizer. This optimizer-centric view naturally points to zeroth-order optimization, which provides a robustness-oriented signal by evaluating safety alignment under perturbations. Based on this insight, we propose a hybrid framework that first performs standard first-order safety alignment and then applies zeroth-order refinement to improve robustness. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that only a few zeroth-order refinement steps can enhance robustness while preserving safety alignment. We further improve the efficiency of zeroth-order refinement by exploiting its inherent perturbation-based evaluations to estimate layer-wise robustness sensitivity, enabling the refinement process to concentrate updates on robustness-critical layers with modest training overhead.
Zhihao Liu, Yifan Wu, Jian Lou +3
May 24, 2026cs.CV

MinerU-Popo: Universal Post-Processing Model for Structured Document Parsing

VLM-based OCR models have become the de facto choice for document parsing, as they can accurately extract page-level elements (e.g., paragraphs within individual pages) together with their bounding boxes and textual content. However, downstream applications such as RAG require coherent document-level information, whereas these models often break cross-page continuity and fail to recover disrupted structures, such as paragraphs and tables truncated by page boundaries. Such relationships are not confined to a single page; instead, they require joint analysis of titles, paragraphs, tables, and images spanning multiple pages. A natural solution is therefore to reuse existing OCR outputs and reconstruct document-level logical structures through post-processing. To this end, we propose MinerU-Popo, a lightweight and universal framework for POst-Processing OCR outputs, which converts page-level results from diverse parsers into coherent document-level structures. MinerU-Popo decomposes the problem into four focused subtasks: text truncation recovery, table truncation recovery, title hierarchy reconstruction, and image-text association. To address these effectively, we build a task-oriented data engine with task-specific input filtering, and use the generated data (30K) to fine-tune a lightweight post-processing model (Qwen3-VL-4B). To support long documents, we introduce dynamic chunking with overlap-based synchronization, which aligns chunk-level outputs from the fine-tuned model and preserves global consistency. Finally, we assemble the aligned outputs into a tree-structured document representation, further enriched with node chunking and summaries for downstream retrieval and analysis. Empirical results show MinerU-Popo improves title-hierarchy TEDS by at least 20% across all five tested OCR models, improves RAG accuracy and reduces per-query latency.
Bangrui Xu, Ziyang Miao, Xuanhe Zhou +8
May 19, 2026cs.CV

Lens Privacy Sealing: A New Benchmark and Method for Physical Privacy-Preserving Action Recognition

RGB camera-based surveillance systems enable human action recognition for public safety and healthcare, yet raise serious privacy concerns. Existing methods rely on post-capture algorithms, which fail to protect privacy during data acquisition. We propose Lens Privacy Sealing (LPS), a simple hardware solution that physically obscures camera lenses with adjustable laminating film, providing pre-sensor privacy protection at minimal cost. Unlike software methods or expensive engineered optics, LPS achieves strong privacy through stochastic multi-layer scattering that is physically irreversible. We introduce the P3^3AR dataset for privacy-preserving action recognition, featuring both large-scale replay-captured (P3^3AR-NTU, 114K videos) and real-world collected (P3^3AR-PKU) subsets with privacy attribute annotations. To handle video degradation from LPS, we propose MSPNet, a single-stage framework incorporating Inter-Frame Noise Suppressor (IFNS) and Cross-Frame Semantic Aggregator (CFSA), enhanced by contrastive language-image pre-training for robust semantic extraction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MSPNet with IFNS and CFSA nearly doubles action recognition accuracy compared to baseline methods while suppressing identity recognition to low levels. Comprehensive validation shows LPS achieves a superior privacy-utility trade-off compared to state-of-the-art hardware methods, resists reconstruction attacks including PSF inversion and data-driven recovery, and generalizes robustly across optical configurations and challenging environments. Code is available at https://github.com/wangzy01/MSPNet.
Mengyuan Liu, Ziyi Wang, Peiming Li +1
May 17, 2026cs.CV

A Conditional U-Net Pipeline with Pre- and Post-Processing for Aerial RGB-to-Thermal Image Translation

Paired RGB-thermal data has shown significant utility across a range of applications, including image fusion, object tracking, and anomaly detection; however, its broader adoption is constrained by the limited availability of aligned RGB-thermal image pairs. RGB-to-thermal (and vice versa) image translation has emerged as a practical solution to this challenge. Prior approaches including conditional generative adversarial networks (cGANs) such as ThermalGAN and Scalable Interpolant Transformer (SiT)-based architectures such as ThermalGen have demonstrated strong potential for aerial-to-thermal image translation. In this work, we explore alternative architectures that prioritize simplicity while maintaining performance. Specifically, we propose a conditional U-Net that incorporates weather data at the bottleneck layer, complemented by targeted preprocessing and post-processing techniques applied within the Pix2Pix GAN architecture. We utilize a training set of 612 paired RGB and thermal images, and evaluate over 5-fold cross-validation, ultimately testing on a held-out test set. Our conditional U-Net model performed best, with a peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of 14.5485, structural similarity index measure (SSIM) of 0.8095, and learned perceptual image patch similarity (LPIPS) of 0.1666. These results outperformed the base ThermalGen model, which attained PSNR, SSIM, and LPIPS scores of 7.56, 0.2444, and 0.6317 respectively. We find that while saturation boost and contrast enhancement for preprocessing and Gaussian blur for post-processing provide observable improvements, the incorporation of conditioning data was most effective. Our findings cement the potential of integrating auxiliary metadata into thermal image generation, suggesting that such information can serve as a proxy for environmental conditions critical to accurate thermal reconstruction.
Tseten Sherpa, Sikandar Ali, Shubham Parab +5
May 16, 2026quant-ph

\mathcal{O}(n) alternative to Quantum Fourier Transform with efficient neural net classical post-processing

The Quantum Fourier Transform (QFT) is employed by hidden subgroup problem (HSP) algorithms, including Shor's algorithm for factoring. The circuit depth of the QFT remains challenging for near-term hardware. To find shallower alternatives we identify two properties that are exploited by the QFT to enable HSP. Firstly, the shift invariance of the QFT allows for the removal of a random overall shift. Secondly, the QFT retains information about the hidden subgroup generator accessible in the measurement outcomes. We quantify that information via the discrete Fisher information. We construct a family of shallow circuits using Hadamards and controlled-Phase gates, HP-LL circuits, that we prove preserve shift invariance. Numerical analysis shows these circuits retain exponentially growing Fisher information. The O(n)\mathcal{O}(n) HP-11 is employed in place of the O(n2)\mathcal{O}(n^2) QFT in our numerical implementation of Shor's algorithm. An efficient neural network is used for the corresponding classical post-processing.
Kaiming Bian, Zujin Wen, Oscar Dahlsten
May 7, 2026stat.ML

Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies

Predictive models are often deployed through existing decision policies that stakeholders are reluctant to change unless a risk constraint requires intervention. We study risk-controlled post-processing: given a deterministic baseline policy, choose a new policy that maximizes agreement with the baseline subject to a chance constraint on a user-specified loss. At the population level, we show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure: it follows the baseline except on contexts where switching to the oracle fallback policy yields a large reduction in conditional violation risk. At the finite-sample level, given a fitted fallback policy and score, we develop a post-processing algorithm that uses calibration data to select a threshold. Leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes, we show that under regularity conditions, in the i.i.d. setting, the expected excess risk of the post-processed policy is O(logn/n)O(\log n/n). In the special case when an exact-safe fallback policy is available, the algorithm achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability. In this setting, we also give high-probability near-optimality guarantees on the post-processed policy. Experiments on a COVID-19 radiograph diagnosis task, an LLM routing problem, and a synthetic multiclass decision task show that targeted post-processing can meet or nearly meet risk budgets while preserving substantially more agreement with the baseline than score-blind random mixing.
Sunay Joshi, Tao Wang, Hamed Hassani +1
Apr 22, 2026cs.CV

Linear Image Generation by Synthesizing Exposure Brackets

The life of a photo begins with photons striking the sensor, whose signals are passed through a sophisticated image signal processing (ISP) pipeline to produce a display-referred image. However, such images are no longer faithful to the incident light, being compressed in dynamic range and stylized by subjective preferences. In contrast, RAW images record direct sensor signals before non-linear tone mapping. After camera response curve correction and demosaicing, they can be converted into linear images, which are scene-referred representations that directly reflect true irradiance and are invariant to sensor-specific factors. Since image sensors have better dynamic range and bit depth, linear images contain richer information than display-referred ones, leaving users more room for editing during post-processing. Despite this advantage, current generative models mainly synthesize display-referred images, which inherently limits downstream editing. In this paper, we address the task of text-to-linear-image generation: synthesizing a high-quality, scene-referred linear image that preserves full dynamic range, conditioned on a text prompt, for professional post-processing. Generating linear images is challenging, as pre-trained VAEs in latent diffusion models struggle to simultaneously preserve extreme highlights and shadows due to the higher dynamic range and bit depth. To this end, we represent a linear image as a sequence of exposure brackets, each capturing a specific portion of the dynamic range, and propose a DiT-based flow-matching architecture for text-conditioned exposure bracket generation. We further demonstrate downstream applications including text-guided linear image editing and structure-conditioned generation via ControlNet.
Yuekun Dai, Zhoutong Zhang, Shangchen Zhou +1
Apr 21, 2026physics.ao-ph

Improvements to the post-processing of weather forecasts using machine learning and feature selection

This study aims to develop and improve machine learning-based post-processing models for precipitation, temperature, and wind speed predictions using the Mesoscale Model (MSM) dataset provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for 18 locations across Japan, including plains, mountainous regions, and islands. By incorporating meteorological variables from grid points surrounding the target locations as input features and applying feature selection based on correlation analysis, we found that, in our experimental setting, the LightGBM-based models achieved lower RMSE than the specific neural-network baselines tested in this study, including a reproduced CNN baseline, and also generally achieved lower RMSE than both the raw MSM forecasts and the JMA post-processing product, MSM Guidance (MSMG), across many locations and forecast lead times. Because precipitation has a highly skewed distribution with many zero cases, we additionally examined Tweedie-based loss functions and event-weighted training strategies for precipitation forecasting. These improved event-oriented performance relative to the original LightGBM model, especially at higher rainfall thresholds, although the gains were site dependent and overall performance remained slightly below MSMG.
Kazuma Iwase, Tomoyuki Takenawa