Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

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14 papers in the last four weeks, up 56% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Differentiable latent structure discovery for interpretable forecasting in clinical time series

    Apr 30, 2026Ivan Lerner, Jean Feydy, Alexandre Kalimouttou +2Irregular Time-Series ModelingHealthcare

    Universit´e Paris Cit´e and Universit´e Sorbonne Paris Nord, INRIA, Inserm, HEKA, Paris, 75015, France. · Department of Medical Informatics, Assistance Publique Hˆopitaux de Paris (AP-HP), Georges Pompidou European Hospital, Paris, France. · SIERRA, Inria Paris, Paris, 75015, France. +2

  2. Probabilistic Circuits for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Apr 30, 2026Christian Klötergens, Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Lars Schmidt-ThiemeIrregular Time-Series ModelingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    1ISMLL, University of Hildesheim, Germany

  3. Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting

    Apr 27, 2026Joseph Lemaitre, Justin LesslerEpidemic ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA · Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA · Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA

  4. Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Models

    Apr 22, 2026Ruihan Zhou, Zishi Zhang, Jinhui Han +2Time Series ForecastingConditional Diffusion Models

    Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China · Department of Industrial Engineering and Decision Analytics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China

  5. Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems

    Apr 22, 2026Dmitry Zaytsev, Valentina Kuskova, Michael CoppedgeProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Lucy Family Institute for Data & Society, University of Notre Dame, USA · Department of Political Science, University of Notre Dame, USA

  6. Spatio-temporal modelling of electric vehicle charging demand

    Apr 21, 2026Kaoutar Bouaachra, Yvenn Amara-Ouali, Yannig Goude +1Electric Vehicle ChargingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    École Polytechnique de Paris · EDF Lab Paris-Saclay Palaiseau, France · INRIA Paris, DYOGENE/MATHNET Team

  7. IDOBE: Infectious Disease Outbreak forecasting Benchmark Ecosystem

    Apr 20, 2026Aniruddha Adiga, Jingyuan Chou, Anshul Chiranth +7Epidemic ForecastingForecasting Benchmarks

    Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA · Department of Public and Ecosystem Health Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine, Ithaca, New York, USA · Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA +2

  8. Barrier-enforced multi-objective optimization for direct point and sharp interval forecasting

    Apr 20, 2026Worachit Amnuaypongsa, Yotsapat Suparanonrat, Pana Wanitchollakit +1Multi-Objective OptimizationProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand · Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

  9. Causally-Constrained Probabilistic Forecasting for Time-Series Anomaly Detection

    Apr 20, 2026Pooyan Khosravinia, João Gama, Bruno VelosoAnomaly LocalizationTime-Series Anomaly Detection

  10. Prior-Fitted Functional Flow: In-Context Generative Models for Pharmacokinetics

    Apr 19, 2026César Ojeda, Niklas Hartung, Wilhelm Huisinga +6Zero-Shot Time Series ForecastingHealthcare

    University of Potsdam, Germany · Technical University Berlin, Germany · Freie Universität Berlin, Germany +2

  11. Unveiling Stochasticity: Universal Multi-modal Probabilistic Modeling for Traffic Forecasting

    Apr 17, 2026Weijiang Xiong, Robert Fonod, Nikolas GeroliminisTraffic ForecastingProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Urban Transport Systems Laboratory (LUTS), EPFL, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland

  12. Assessing the Performance-Efficiency Trade-off of Foundation Models in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

    Apr 16, 2026Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Veit Hagenmeyer +1Electricity Price ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Karlsruhe Institute of Technology · Karlsruhe, Germany

  13. Spatio-temporal probabilistic forecast using MMAF-guided learning

    Mar 16, 2026Leonardo Bardi, Imma Valentina Curato, Lorenzo ProiettiBayesian Neural NetworksSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Department of Mathematics TU Chemnitz Reichenhainer Straße 41

  14. Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics

    Mar 7, 2026Rajdeep Pathak, Tanujit ChakrabortyEpidemic ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    SAFIR, Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · SCAI, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France

  15. Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Tree-Based Machine Learning and Weather Ensembles

    Feb 13, 2026Max Bruninx, Diederik van Binsbergen, Timothy Verstraeten +2Gradient-Boosted Decision TreesEnsemble Learning

    Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium · Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

  16. DiTS: Multimodal Diffusion Transformers Are Time Series Forecasters

    Feb 6, 2026Haoran Zhang, Haixuan Liu, Yong Liu +4Time Series ForecastingProbabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    School of Software, BNRist, Tsinghua University

  17. Probabilistic NDVI Forecasting from Sparse Satellite Time Series and Weather Covariates

    Feb 4, 2026Irene Iele, Giulia Romoli, Daniele Molino +4Irregular Time-Series ModelingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Unit of Artificial Intelligence and Computer Systems, Universit`a Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Italy · Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Biomedical Engineering and Radiation Physics, Ume˚a University, Sweden · Department of Naval, Electrical, Electronics and Telecommunications Engineering, University of Genoa, Italy

  18. EMFusion: Uncertainty-Aware Conditional Diffusion Model for Multivariate Narrow-band Exposure Forecasting

    Dec 17, 2025Zijiang Yan, Yixiang Huang, Jianhua Pei +2Multivariate Time Series ForecastingConditional Diffusion Models

    department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, York University, Toronto, Canada · School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China · China Southern Grid Electric Power Dispatch Control Center, Guangzhou, China +3

  19. Auditable Context-Aware HFMD Forecasting with Structured LLM Agents

    Nov 28, 2025Joongwon Chae, Runming Wang, Chen Xiong +5Epidemic ForecastingExplainable Time Series Forecasting

    Institute of Biomedicine and Health Engineering, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School (SIGS), Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China · The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China · The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Lishui 323000, China +1

  20. DistDF: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Joint-Distribution Wasserstein Alignment

    Oct 28, 2025Hao Wang, Licheng Pan, Yuan Lu +7Time Series ForecastingOptimal Transport

    Xiaohongshu Inc. · College of Control Science and Technology, Zhejiang University · College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University +4

  21. Double-Diffusion: Balancing Speed, Accuracy, and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Forecasting for Urban Sensor Networks

    Jun 29, 2025Hanlin Dong, Arian Prabowo, Hao Xue +4Spatiotemporal ForecastingDiffusion Model Inference Acceleration

    University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia · University of Maryland College Park, United States · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou, China

  22. Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations

    Jun 2, 2025Batuhan Koyuncu, Rachael DeVries, Ole Winther +1Irregular Time-Series ModelingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science, Saarland University · Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen · Novo Nordisk A/S +1