Quantitative Finance

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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 9% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 123

Oct 7, 2026cs.AI

SOTA: Stock Options Trading Agents Guided by Option-Implied Return Distributions

As option markets grow and AI advances, agentic systems for option trading are gaining increasing attention. Language-model-based agents can reason over contextual information such as news, but option trading presents a particularly challenging decision problem: a single stock can have thousands of contracts, and the agent must decide both which contracts to trade and how to combine them. Existing approaches often sidestep this complexity by restricting the policy to a fixed strategy structure, such as a straddle, limiting their ability to switch strategies as market conditions change. We present SOTA (Stock Options Trading Agents), an agentic trading framework for structured option-strategy selection. SOTA abstracts the large option universe into strategy-level decisions while deterministic resolvers handle portfolio implementation. We develop SOTA by post-training Qwen3.8-27B with supervised fine-tuning followed by reinforcement learning. SOTA is evaluated on options on nine large-cap U.S. equities and SPY against rule-based and machine-learning strategy selectors in the same trading environment. Over a six-month out-of-sample period, SOTA earns an 18.3% total return with a Sharpe ratio of 1.60 and a maximum drawdown of 8.96%. We also document an asymmetric role of news: news improves frontier-teacher trajectories, but retaining news during reinforcement learning reduces out-of-sample return from 18.3% to -2.7%.

Yizhen Xie, Mengyang Liu

Carnegie Mellon University · Amazon

Algorithmic Trading Quantitative Finance LLM Agent Training

Oct 7, 2026quant-ph

Q-PhotoMarket: A Design Space Exploration Framework for Photonic Hybrid Quantum Neural Networks in Financial Market Prediction

Photonic quantum computing has recently emerged as a promising platform for hybrid quantum machine learning due to its native realization of linear-optical circuits and the computational complexity of boson sampling. However, despite growing interest in quantum methods for finance, the influence of photonic circuit design choices on predictive performance remains largely unexplored. Existing studies typically evaluate a single architecture, leaving the broader photonic design space unexamined. In this work, we present Q-PhotoMarket, a systematic design space exploration (DSE) framework for photonic hybrid quantum neural networks (HQNNs) applied to financial market prediction. We explore over 5,000 valid photonic configurations spanning input photon states, circuit architectures, entangling models, and measurement strategies across their compatible computation spaces, for U.S., Indian, and cryptocurrency markets. To improve search efficiency, the exhaustive exploration is complemented with Bayesian optimization. We further incorporate threshold calibration and prediction-collapse diagnostics to enable reliable evaluation under increasingly imbalanced return thresholds. Experimental results show that systematic exploration of more than 5,000 photonic HQNN configurations reveals consistent architectural patterns across financial markets, identifies robust high-performing designs, and demonstrates competitive performance relative to classical machine learning baselines.

Alberto Marchisio, Hanzalah Mohamed Siraj, Muhammad Kashif +2

eBrain Lab, Division of Engineering, New York University Abu Dhabi, PO Box 129188, Abu Dhabi, UAE · Center for Quantum and Topological Systems, NYUAD Research Institute, New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE · SDU Microelectronics, Institute of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark +1

Quantum Neural Networks Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML Financial Forecasting Quantitative Finance

Oct 7, 2026q-fin.ST

Residual Learning in Empirical Asset Pricing

Shallow models are special cases of deep models, and deep models theoretically have the potential to outperform the shallow ones. However, the existing empirical asset pricing literature provides strong benchmarks for shallow models. Residual learning allows neural network models in asset pricing to go deeper by preserving and refining their shallow counterparts. The out-of-sample Sharpe ratio for value-weighted long-short portfolios of deep residual models (2.07) is higher than that for the corresponding shallow ones (1.92) and more than twice that of the deep feedforward models (0.89). We show that model depth is a source of additional economic value in asset pricing. Residual learning can be used to deepen other neural-network-based asset pricing models if they contain intermediate layers. Our design also provides one way to scale asset pricing models, making native "large asset pricing models" more feasible.

Dexin Peng, Xiaoyu Wang

FinTech Thrust, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

Quantitative Finance Residual Learning

Oct 5, 2026cs.LG

Adversarial Training for Deep Hedging in Nonstationary Markets

Deep hedging learns trading policies from historical or simulated market trajectories, yet under nonstationarity these training paths may not represent future market conditions. We propose WRAP (Wasserstein-Reweighting Adversarial Perturbation), a drift-aware adversarial training framework derived from a two-budget distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation. The formulation is anchored to a weighted empirical reference distribution whose fixed baseline weights are chosen to balance sampling uncertainty against temporal drift. Around this reference distribution, the ambiguity set addresses two complementary forms of distributional misspecification by allowing an adversary to reweight the observed trajectories subject to a

φ

-divergence constraint and perturb their paths subject to an optimal-transport (OT) constraint. We derive a joint first-order expansion in which the leading-order increase over the nominal expected loss decomposes into a reweighting contribution determined by the dispersion of hedging losses across trajectories and a transport contribution determined by the sensitivity of the loss to path perturbations. This expansion yields an explicit finite-dimensional adversarial attack that replaces the distributional inner supremum with a tractable first-order approximation. Across stationary and nonstationary Heston dynamics and a generalized affine diffusion (GAD), the experiments show complementary benefits from reweighting and transport, with joint adversarial training providing the largest gains under nonstationarity.

Philipp J. Schneider, Lukas Looser, Antoine Garin +2

Risk Analytics and Optimization Chair, EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland · University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada

Adversarial Training Quantitative Finance Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization Finance Algorithmic Trading

Oct 4, 2026cs.LG

How Execution Assumptions Change Short-Horizon Sharpe Rankings: Evidence from a Synthetic Trading Benchmark

Backtests of LLM trading agents often assume that every order fills at the closing price. We ask whether this choice changes only reported returns or also the order of the agents. Five prompted LLM signal policies and seven classical baselines trade the same synthetic price paths under six execution settings, from near-ideal fills to latency, spread, participation, and impact stresses. The main experiment contains

2{,}462

runs with matched decision frequencies and paired market paths. On the compressed two-asset board, agreement between the near-ideal and default-stress rankings falls to Kendall

τ_b=0.21

in the high-volatility regime, compared with

0.82

in the calm regime. The seed-bootstrap intervals,

[0.00,0.52]

and

[0.48,0.94]

, are wide and overlap. On a fixed 11-policy board, agreement rises from 0.24 with two assets to 0.85 with ten; the two-asset point estimate differs substantially from the wider settings we tested. Rank changes are related to turnover, and comparisons with buy-and-hold also depend on how that anchor is initialized. The experiment does not compare LLM trading skill. It shows that, on a short horizon, an execution convention can become part of the benchmark's headline. Execution assumptions and rank stability should be reported alongside returns.

Weicheng Xue

Virginia Tech

Quantitative Finance LLM Agent Evaluation AI Agent Benchmarks Algorithmic Trading

Sep 29, 2026q-fin.TR

Say, Echo, Do: Strategic Narratives and Revealed Positioning in Financial Markets

Machine-learning signals built from financial text treat what institutions say, and what the media repeat, as evidence about value. But whoever shapes a narrative may be trading against it. We study markets with three observable voices: institutional statements (Say), media repetition (Echo) and revealed positioning (Do). We ask when words should be followed and when they should be faded. In a linear-quadratic model of an informed institution that speaks and trades before a partly credulous crowd, talking an asset down while buying it is optimal exactly when

\varphi^2<2λk<\varphi

. A distribution-free identity then shows that when the observable Say-Do covariance is negative, words carry negative predictive content and should be faded. For measurement, we derive (i) an exact factorised posterior over which articles are echoes, combining arrival times with embedding similarity; (ii) a return-aligned contrastive objective that attains its bound exactly when squared embedding distances are an increasing affine function of squared outcome distances, with the tightest loss-based certificate of which neighbour rankings survive imperfect training; and (iii) a path-signature statistic for who moved first. In a controlled market with known ground truth, echo sentiment predicts returns with a significantly negative sign in all 29 simulated markets, the rolling Say-Do correlation flags false-alarm events with an AUC of 0.90, and return-aligned embeddings organise headlines by consequence rather than topic. We also report where the tools fail.

Ali Atiah Alzahrani

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Quantitative Finance Financial Forecasting Financial Sentiment Analysis Finance

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

Retrieval-Augmented Diffusion Modeling for Stochastic Discount Factor Portfolios

In this work, we study portfolio optimization under the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework by learning market state representations that capture the underlying risk structures of financial data. This is challenging due to several factors: financial markets exhibit non-stationary dynamics with shifting regimes, multimodal inputs such as price and news data often contain stochastic noise, and existing diffusion-based approaches, while effective for modeling stochastic dynamics, rely on assumptions such as isotropic Gaussian noise that fail to capture the state-dependent nature of financial uncertainty. To address these challenges, we introduce RADAR, a retrieval-augmented diffusion framework that learns market representations by conditioning on similar historical regimes. RADAR leverages retrieval to construct context-dependent noise distributions, applies conditional diffusion to denoise multimodal representations, and initializes the diffusion process using empirical statistics to reflect state-dependent uncertainty. Experiments show that RADAR achieves state-of-the-art performance on key risk-adjusted metrics while producing economically meaningful signals on asset returns and correlations.

Kelvin J. L. Koa, Xinyang Li, Ke-Wei Huang

National University of Singapore Asian Institute of Digital Finance

Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization Conditional Diffusion Models Time Series Representation Learning Diffusion Models

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

Deep kernel hedging

We introduce a deep kernel hedging framework that combines the flexibility of deep learning with the structural inductive bias of kernel methods. The hedging functional is restricted to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space whose kernel is parameterized through a neural network embedding of the input features. The framework minimizes a regularized empirical risk under convex loss functions and can accommodate path-dependent information through truncated time-augmented signature features. We derive a generalized representer theorem for the joint hedging problem, reducing the empirical optimization to a finite-dimensional problem. To further reduce the computational cost associated with large kernel matrices, we develop a scalable random Fourier feature approximation and establish convergence guarantees. The random Fourier parameters are sampled once and remain fixed throughout training, while the deep kernel adapts to market data through the learned neural representation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed deep kernel approach on both synthetic and real data and compare it with standard kernel methods and classical deep hedging architectures. Numerical results indicate competitive and robust hedging performance, particularly in low-data regimes, which highlights the benefits of combining expressive neural representations with the inductive bias of kernel methods.

Jean-Loup Dupret, Donatien Hainaut, Edouard Motte

University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam School of Economics · ETH Zurich, Department of Mathematics, RiskLab · Université Catholique de Louvain, LIDAM–ISBA

Quantitative Finance Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces Kernel Methods

Sep 28, 2026stat.ML

AlphaPareto: Formulaic Alpha Discovery with LLM-Guided Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Formulaic alpha discovery is a core challenge in quantitative trading, as identifying alphas that work well together remains difficult. Recent reinforcement learning (RL) methods formulate this task as a Markov decision process (MDP), but two important issues remain unresolved. First, as the alpha pool evolves, the reward function changes accordingly, making the MDP inherently non-stationary. Second, most existing methods optimize a single objective, typically predictive power, while ignoring other important properties of a high-quality alpha pool. Motivated by these challenges, we propose AlphaPareto, an RL method for formulaic alpha discovery. To address non-stationarity, AlphaPareto augments the state to include both the alpha under construction and the current alpha pool, and applies a large language model (LLM) to encode the pool. This design allows the agent to adapt to the evolving search environment. To overcome the limitation of single-objective reward design, AlphaPareto replaces the scalar reward with a multi-objective vector-valued reward that simultaneously captures predictive power, temporal stability, perturbation robustness, and diversity, and optimizes these objectives through a Pareto-regularized learning procedure. Empirical applications to real-world datasets show that our AlphaPareto method outperforms its competitors.

Yingbo Zhao, Zeyu Yang, Zhoufan Zhu

School of Economics Xiamen University Fujian, China · Paula and Gregory Chow Institute for Studies in Economics Xiamen University Fujian, China · School of Economics & Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics Xiamen University Fujian, China

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning Non-Stationary RL Quantitative Finance Automated Algorithm Discovery

Sep 27, 2026q-fin.PM

Taming the Greeks: Option Portfolios with Inductive Biases

We present an end-to-end deep learning framework for systematic options trading that directly embeds hedging behavior through explicit control of portfolio-level risk exposures. While neural networks trained to optimize risk-adjusted performance have been shown to outperform traditional rules-based strategies, such approaches remain agnostic to the sensitivities of the resulting portfolios with respect to specific underlying risk factors. We propose a general training objective that combines a performance-driven loss with a differentiable risk-sensitivity penalty, enforcing neutrality to selected risk dimensions. Unlike reinforcement learning methods that approximate optimal hedging policies via simulated market dynamics, our framework operates entirely on historical data and jointly optimizes risk-adjusted returns and targeted risk constraints in a single learning problem. We instantiate the framework on static delta-neutral straddle portfolios with the penalty directed at first-order directional exposure, and evaluate two penalty variants -- an exposure-normalized penalty and a Greek-ratio drift penalty. Empirical results on Nasdaq 100 equity options demonstrate that appropriately calibrated regularization simultaneously improves out-of-sample risk-adjusted performance relative to an unregularized baseline while reducing realized directional exposure.

Wee Ling Tan, Stephen Roberts, Stefan Zohren

Department of Engineering Science Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance University of Oxford

Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization Algorithmic Trading

Sep 27, 2026cs.AI

EverMine: Dissecting the Self-Evolution of Research Capabilities in Long-Horizon Alpha Research

Self-evolving agents aim to turn research feedback into reusable skills, tools, and research rules. Whether these accumulated capabilities continue to improve later research requires controlled evaluation. Long-horizon alpha discovery provides a state-dependent setting: once a new factor enters the portfolio, the predictive information already covered changes, so the value of the same candidate or experience may change over time. We introduce EverMine, an empirical framework for studying self-evolving research capabilities in long-horizon alpha discovery. EverMine decomposes the research state into history (Hist), the current factor portfolio (Frontier), and reusable capabilities (Cap). Under matched resource limits, we compare complete runs with fixed or evolving Cap, and replace Cap while holding Hist and Frontier fixed to estimate the conditional value of accumulated capabilities. We also combine full trajectories with historical-state replay to examine how experience-based decisions affect candidate selection and portfolio outcomes. Across 18 long-horizon trajectories, end-to-end comparisons show no consistent gain from Cap evolution. Across 48 continuation branches from shared Hist and Frontier states, accumulated Cap also does not consistently outperform the initial Cap. Parameter tuning of existing factor structures can still improve the portfolio. In an exploratory replay of two screening batches from one Evolving trajectory, some screened-out candidates have positive marginal value at the original state, yet submitting all screened-out candidates sequentially slightly lowers final portfolio IC in both batches. These results show that candidate value depends on the evolving portfolio and submission order, and motivate evaluating self-evolving research capabilities through end-to-end outcomes, conditional capability value, and the consequences of experience-based decisions.

Siyuan Li, Jiangfeng Zhang, Rui Yao +3

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · The Hong Kong Polytechnic University · Singapore Management University

Quantitative Finance Long-Horizon Agent Evaluation Autonomous Research Agents Self-Evolving Agents

Sep 27, 2026cs.AI

LiveOption: Evaluating LLM Agents in Structured Option Trading with Nonlinear Payoffs

Large language models (LLMs) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have shown promise in financial decision-making, yet existing evaluations focus on equity trading and primarily assess directional prediction, overlooking the structural complexity of derivative markets. Option trading introduces fundamentally different challenges, including nonlinear payoffs and multi-leg strategy construction, requiring structured decisions rather than simple directional bets. We introduce LiveOption, an evaluation framework for LLM-based agents in option trading. LiveOption formulates the problem as structured sequential decision-making under realistic execution and capital constraints, and provides a reproducible environment with standardized interaction protocols. The framework includes three task suites covering portfolio overlays, event-driven earnings trading, and 0DTE intraday trading. We further propose a hierarchical metric suite that evaluates action validity, decision quality, risk characteristics, and outcome-level performance. Experiments show that current agents often fail to achieve competitive returns in most scenarios. LiveOption offers a principled testbed for evaluating structured decision-making beyond outcome-based metrics.

Haochen Luo, Yifan Li, Binh Minh An +4

City University of Hong Kong · The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) · Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Quantitative Finance LLM Agent Evaluation AI Agent Benchmarks Algorithmic Trading

Sep 24, 2026cs.AI

AlphaDiverse: Post-Training Local Quantitative Research Agents for Diverse Exploration in Alpha Factor Mining

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems can automate alpha factor mining, but their reliance on external APIs limits control over cost, availability, and confidentiality. Long research loops also tend to revisit a few successful economic mechanisms that lead to research path collapse. To address these limitations, we propose AlphaDiverse, a framework that integrates a multi-agent alpha research system, diverse research path collection, and post-training for local agents. We let the research system generate complementary plan portfolios and vary research environments across loops to collect diverse research paths. Using these diverse traces, we warm-start local Planner and Realizer agents with supervised fine-tuning. Then, we propose a joint GRPO method to optimize both of them using predictive quality and diversity of contributions. Research feedback is confined to inner period data, while a frozen final model is evaluated on a later outer period data, thereby avoiding test-set tuning. Experiments across four Chinese stock universes show that AlphaDiverse can combine competitive prediction with broader exploration.

Qingzhuo Wang, Zikun Wei, Zhihua Wei +1

Tongji University · Shanghai Non-convex Intelligent Technology

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Quantitative Finance RL Exploration

Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

FINESSE: An Agent-Based Simulator and Benchmark Dataset for Multimodal Financial Event Sequences

Machine learning research in financial services is limited by the scarcity of representative open-source datasets. Existing resources are often narrowly focused on a single modality or task and fail to reflect the structured, multimodal, and dynamic nature inherent to many problems in financial services. In this paper, we introduce FINESSE, a Financial Event Sequence Simulation Environment, an agent-based simulation framework for generating synthetic, structured datasets composed of multiple interdependent event streams. Each stream corresponds to a distinct financial behavior such as transactions, payments, account status changes, and policy interventions, each with unique action spaces, schemas and variable types. These streams are coupled through agents' latent evolving states, enabling the simulation of temporally rich interactions. We also introduce FINESSE-Bench, a benchmark dataset generated by the simulator, supporting four representative tasks: balance forecasting, transaction fraud detection, missed payment prediction, and next event prediction. We report baseline results using methods from time series forecasting, event sequence modeling, temporal graphs, and temporal point processes. We release the FINESSE framework, including the simulator and dataset to accelerate research on structured, multimodal event sequence modeling challenges in financial services.

Tyler Farnan, Benjamin Eng, Adam Abate +4

Capital One

Quantitative Finance Synthetic Data Generation Synthetic Benchmark Generation Multimodal Learning

Sep 8, 2026cs.AI

GoAnt: Quality-Diversity Multi-Agent Search for Alpha Factor Discovery in Market Microstructure Data

Automated alpha factor discovery searches symbolic trading signals from price-volume panels and order-book data under a fixed evaluation budget. Existing single- and multi-agent program-search systems can overfit predictive proxies that fail after execution costs and repeatedly explore redundant factor families, limiting execution robustness and behavioral diversity. We introduce GoAnt, a quality-diversity multi-agent search framework that combines non-communicating Explorer, Exploiter and Connector workers with a shared adaptive Mental Map and a compact Queen dispatcher. The Mental Map organizes candidates by leakage-free execution profiles and retains one elite per niche, while the Queen reallocates the evaluation budget from explicit search-state summaries. We also define a map-independent effective-yield protocol that counts high-quality, mutually nonredundant factors directly from each method's evaluation records, giving archive-based and map-free systems the same ruler. On real A-share microstructure data spanning 2023--2026, GoAnt reaches quality-weighted yields of 41.8 and 47.6 in price-volume and order-book settings, improving the strongest baseline by 57% and 97% under matched budgets. Its locked populations retain 0.64 and 0.67 of in-sample quality out of sample, compared with 0.61 and 0.63 for a static map.

Stella Zhao, Tommy Sha

University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA · Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA

Multi-Agent System Optimization Quantitative Finance Automated Algorithm Discovery Quality-Diversity Optimization Algorithmic Trading

Sep 8, 2026cs.LG

AlphaRJM: Reward-Jump Memory for Stochastic Return-Guided Alpha Discovery

Formulaic alpha discovery is a pool-dependent symbolic search problem in which informative feedback is observed primarily when a complete expression is evaluated. This delayed feedback creates two coupled difficulties: the retained alpha pool does not preserve the full history of realized evaluation feedback, and the value of an intermediate construction action is uncertain because its consequence depends on the formula eventually completed. We introduce AlphaRJM, which addresses these difficulties through Reward-Jump Memory, an event-driven latent state that remains fixed during token construction and updates only at terminal evaluation events using the realized pool reward and evaluation outcome, and an action-conditioned SDE return critic that represents future discounted discovery returns with stochastic particles. The particles guide action selection through their mean and uncertainty and are learned using a distributional Bellman objective combining energy-distance matching, mean calibration, and jump regularization. Empirically, AlphaRJM delivers strong and stable gains across multiple equity universes, forecasting horizons, and random seeds, while ablations confirm the complementary roles of persistent evaluation history, stochastic return modeling, and distributional supervision.

Sayan Dhan, Selvaraju Natarajan

Department of Mathematics Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati

Quantitative Finance Sparse-Reward RL Symbolic Regression

Sep 1, 2026cs.AI

Agentic Empirical Asset Pricing: Methodological Foundations

Recent advances in LLM agents enable a new paradigm for asset pricing, which we call Agentic Empirical Asset Pricing (AEAP): systems that autonomously conduct the scientific discovery process itself. We define AEAP and identify its core building blocks. Existing evaluation practices backtest only the outputs (factors or trades), not the autonomous discovery system that produced them. We focus on factor discovery, contributing a reference architecture, a rigorous evaluation standard for discovered factors, and a method for out-of-sample backtesting the discovery system. As a concrete instance of that architecture, we evaluate SEADS against five re-implemented baselines on two US equity panels using this standard: no single metric ranks the systems consistently, motivating evaluation on multiple axes at once. A separate rolling re-execution then asks the complementary question of whether the discovery process itself, not one static output, is reliable. We also report negative findings and limitations that surface further evaluation pitfalls for future AEAP systems.

Yingjian Pan, Xiaowei Ding, Kay Giesecke

Advanced Financial Technologies Laboratory · Stanford University · School of Information Management +1

Quantitative Finance AI Agent Evaluation Finance Autonomous Research Agents

Aug 31, 2026q-fin.CP

Latent-Space No-Arbitrage Geometry of Generative Models for Implied Volatility Surfaces

Generative models for implied volatility surfaces must produce outputs that satisfy static no-arbitrage constraints. We study these constraints in latent space. For a fixed generator, we assign each latent code a scalar margin determined by the no-arbitrage conditions of the generated surface. The codes with nonnegative margin form the admissible latent set. We establish conditions under which strictly admissible codes remain admissible under small perturbations and the boundary of the admissible set is characterized by zero margin. For regular boundary components, we formulate a level-set equation whose local dynamics are directed toward the zero-margin set. The analysis treats the generator as a map from latent variables to surfaces and is therefore not restricted to a particular architecture. It applies to variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, and other generative models with a deterministic realization map. Numerical tests recover known boundaries in analytic examples. Experiments with a variational autoencoder trained on Heston surfaces show that similar reconstruction errors can correspond to different admissible regions and that the latent prior may be concentrated inside such a region. The computed boundary can also be used to modify latent codes that generate violating surfaces.

Jing Wang, Shuaiqiang Liu, Cornelis Vuik

Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology

Constrained Generative Modeling Neural Representation Geometry Quantitative Finance

Aug 31, 2026q-fin.PM

End-to-End Neural Shrinkage of Indefinite Pairwise Correlation Matrices for Small-Cap-Inclusive Portfolios

Small-cap-inclusive equity universes contain recently listed and intermittently traded securities, so enforcing a common look-back discards a substantial fraction of the available information. Pairwise-complete estimation preserves the longest overlap for each asset pair, but the resulting correlation matrix can be indefinite because its entries are computed on different samples. This prevents direct use in Markowitz optimization and falls outside the assumptions of standard random-matrix shrinkage. We adapt a rotation-invariant neural covariance estimator to this setting. The model computes mask-aware marginal moments and a pairwise correlation matrix proxy, processes its signed spectrum, and uses a bidirectional gated recurrent unit conditioned on factor-aligned effective sample lengths derived from the overlap matrix and eigenvector loadings. It maps all eigenvalues, including negative ones, to a positive inverse spectrum. The reconstructed covariance is positive definite and is trained end-to-end to minimize five-day realized global-minimum-variance risk. We evaluate 26 expanding-window models from 2000 to 2025 on up to 1,500 U.S. equities in a closing-auction simulator with point-in-time selection, commissions, financing, corporate actions, and market impact. Across the 26-year out-of-sample period, the neural estimator reduces annualized five-day volatility by approximately 20% and increases the Sharpe ratio by approximately 40% relative to the next-best covariance estimator. These improvements are consistent across realized risk, risk-adjusted performance, and drawdown control, remain after the modeled execution frictions, and are supported by a 99.9% Model Confidence Set that retains only the neural estimator.

Christian Bongiorno, Lorenzo Villassero

Université Paris-Saclay, CentraleSupélec · Mathématiques et Informatique pour la Complexité et les Systèmes · Gif-sur-Yvette, France +2

Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization Covariance Estimation

Aug 31, 2026cs.AI

FaVOR: LLM-Based Agentic Framework for Factor Mining via Empirical Validation

Traditional finance relies on experts to hand-craft factors through a principled process grounded in economic rationale. Recent LLM-based multi-agent systems have automated this process, scaling factor mining far beyond manual effort. However, these automated approaches optimize directly for returns and rarely check whether a generated factor still expresses the economic hypothesis that motivated it. We identify this inconsistency between mathematical form and economic meaning as a structural failure mode of return-oriented automation. The resulting factors blur the line between real signals and spurious correlations and break down across regime shifts. We propose FaVOR (Factor Validation through Observable Reasoning), an agentic framework that restructures factor mining around hypothesis-level evidence rather than return outcomes. In place of the standard hypothesis-to-formula leap, FaVOR enforces a three-stage consistency loop tying mathematical form to economic rationale throughout. (1) Decomposition splits a broad economic hypothesis into independent observable conditions. (2) Validation checks whether each factor reflects its intended condition. (3) Integration merges them into a composite whose structure remains interpretable. On the CSI 500 and S&P 500 in 2025, FaVOR outperforms existing baselines while remaining effective across regimes. FaVOR shows that hypothesis-grounded factor discovery produces signals that are interpretable by construction, regime-robust, and economically faithful. The code is available at https://github.com/damilab/FaVOR.

Hyeonjin Kim, Minseok Kim, Seunghyeon Jung +3

Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Dongguk University-Seoul · Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University · School of Finance, Soongsil University

Quantitative Finance Interpretable ML LLM Agents

Aug 24, 2026cs.LG

The Axiomatic Trader: Latent Regularity, Information Budgets, and the Canonical Form of a Quantitative Investment System

Systematic trading rests on one article of faith: that regularities found in the past persist. This paper does three things. First, it states that faith as five axioms, each a commonplace practitioners already accept: (A1) a decision may use only what was known when it was made; (A2) what looks like the market changing its rules is the market changing its unobserved state, the machinery being the same in every era; (A3) the future may replay stretches of the past, though not in history's proportions; (A4) states persist for a while; (A5) whatever predictability exists is slight, even for a rule that knows the state. What turns these into axioms is quantification, and the quantities are declared rather than estimated: an invariance defect

\varepsilon_0

, a recurrence bound

Λ

at a block scale

b

(one declaration in two parts), coherence times

\ell_i

, a signal ceiling

ρ

and an invariance ratio

κ

. These five declarations are the whole of the premises' empirical content. Second, it proves that the axioms force a five-stage canonical form for a quantitative investment system -- a declared representation, a predictor within a capacity ceiling, contiguous purged block evaluation aggregated by

\mathrm{CVaR}_{1/Λ}

, a budgeted and deflated search, robust sizing at a fraction of the estimate that the budget bounds -- each stage necessary: a procedure omitting it does strictly worse under a law the axioms admit. Third, it tests the axioms where they are falsifiable, each only at its declared constants, on real market series: no axiom is so far overturned.

Jiayu Li

Quantitative Finance Algorithmic Trading

Aug 13, 2026q-fin.CP

LOB-ID: Evaluating Synthetic Market Data by Inception Distances

Generative models of limit orderbook (LOB) data have advanced rapidly, but their evaluation often focuses on stylised facts and selected market statistics. These measures provide useful diagnostics but may not capture the joint temporal and cross-level structure of order-book trajectories. We introduce LOB-ID, an embedding-based framework that adapts the Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) and Monge Inception Distance (MIND) to LOB data. To obtain domain-specific embeddings, we train the DeepLOB architecture on four months of Level-2 order-book data for five equities. We show that LOB-ID is stable across time, instruments, and embedding checkpoints, and rises monotonically under controlled distortions. We then construct a moment-matching attack against FID and a deep-book perturbation that evades statistic-based evaluation. MIND remains substantially more sensitive to both distortions. Finally, we score five generative LOB models, spanning stochastic baselines and deep learning approaches, and find that LOB-ID ranks them in line with the joint temporal and cross-level structure each captures by construction.

Andreea Bacalum, Zhuohan Wang, Ollie Olby +2

Simudyne · King's College London, United Kingdom

Quantitative Finance Synthetic Data Evaluation Generative AI Evaluation

Aug 13, 2026cs.CL

AQuA: Recursively Self-Improving Quantitative Trading Research Agents

We study recursive self-improvement at the level of quantitative-investment research: whether an autonomous system can use evidence from earlier experiments to improve the hypotheses and candidates proposed in later iterations. We present AQuA, which comprises two separate language-model-driven research systems: one for symbolic factor discovery and one for trainable model development. Each system records experimental results and uses them to guide subsequent proposals. Each operates in a fixed sandbox, which fixes the data splits, feature and label definitions, and evaluator while allowing the model to act only through constrained factor expressions or configuration diffs. The factor system, a manager-mediated multi-agent pipeline, discovers and combines factors into a signal that reaches a combined validation information coefficient of about

0.190

on a crypto universe. The model system, a config-driven loop over a hybrid time-series architecture, reaches a per-stock information coefficient of

+0.0843

on US equities and converts it into a threshold long/short strategy with a held-out Sharpe of up to

+2.50

at a two-leg cost. The strategy is positive in every year from 2021 to 2025.

Jiacheng Guo, Suozhi Huang, Yunlong Gao +5

Princeton University · Ant Group · Stanford University

Quantitative Finance Automated Algorithm Discovery Self-Improving Agents Recursive Self-Improvement Autonomous Experimentation Autonomous Research Agents+1

Aug 12, 2026q-fin.MF

DYSANOS Generative Dynamic Smooth Arbitrage-free Non-parametric Option Surfaces

This article presents with DYSANOS the first generative market model for smooth SANOS option surfaces for all strikes and expiries which are free of static arbitrage. Our model is designed to generate entire paths of daily spot and option prices for years in the future. We present a robust and useful if somewhat simplistic baseline in the form of an AR(1) model. We discuss model setup, data pipeline, and training and investigate market reconstruction, stability, and tail behavior. We illustrate model performance on 891 Option Metrics IvyDB S&P Index surfaces from 2022-01-03 through to 2025-08-29. We also demonstrate how to construct numerically a risk-neutral density. As part of this we develop a new test for zero conditional means under a given measure. We show that for 100,000 simulated paths a trading universe of 48 options and spot is numerically free of dynamic arbitrage.

Hans Buehler, Blanka Horvath, Anastasis Kratsios +1

Mathematical Institute and Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford. · McMaster University and Vector Institute.

Quantitative Finance Generative Modeling Financial Time Series

Aug 12, 2026q-fin.ST

Regime-Gated Residual Mixture-of-Experts for Cross-Sectional Volatility Forecasting

Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training. This paper asks where such information should enter a neural cross-sectional volatility forecasting model. We study five-day realized-volatility forecasts for 1,027 U.S. equities using a rolling walk-forward evaluation framework in which information, model capacity, hyperparameter tuning, and random seeds are matched across architectures. We propose RG-ResMoE, a regime-gated residual mixture-of-experts architecture in which regime information is used only for expert routing rather than for direct forecasting. The base predictor models volatility from stock features, while a gating network uses regime state variables to route residual corrections. RG-ResMoE consistently outperforms a capacity-matched MLP in both forecasting accuracy and training stability in the main U.S. study. Similar gains are observed on an independent Japanese panel. The integration pathway is decisive: appending the same regime variables directly to the forecasting input degrades both predictive performance and training stability, whereas restricting them to the routing gate improves accuracy and Value-at-Risk calibration. Hard routing consistently underperforms soft routing. The results suggest that, in compact neural volatility forecasting models, the primary value of mixture-of-experts models lies less in increasing model capacity than in controlling how nonstationary regime information influences prediction.

Junyi Ye, Gargi Vijay Borde

School of Computing, Montclair State University · Montclair, New Jersey, USA

Quantitative Finance Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Financial Time Series Mixture-of-Experts Models

Aug 11, 2026cs.CE

Beyond Forecasting: Recasting Volatility Control as a Routing Problem

Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.

Hongji Pu, Leyang Zhou

University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA

Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization

Aug 10, 2026cs.CV

Financial Numerical Prediction and Allocation as Token Generation

Financial prediction typically relies on task-specific regression, ranking, or policy heads, separating the language model from the numerical object ultimately evaluated. We investigate whether a causal language model can instead represent forecasts and decisions directly through constrained token generation. FinATOM introduces a unified, head-free interface for three-step stock-return forecasting and dynamic five-ETF allocation. The forecasting model autoregressively emits volatility-standardized return tokens and is trained with ordinal and ranking supervision followed by a one-epoch token-level policy stage. The allocation model generates normalized long-only weights; supervised fine-tuning imitates a causal mean--variance anchor, and DAPO-augmented GRPO optimizes realized 21-day Sharpe subject to anchor consistency. In 2023--2025 ETF tests, the allocation policy improves pooled gross Sharpe from 1.428 to 1.529 and net Sharpe under a 5-bp transaction-cost model from 1.394 to 1.494. The multimodal allocation input attains the highest three-period mean Sharpe of 1.540, with its clearest advantage in 2025. On FinTexTS, the SFT and policy strategies achieve 73.52%/2.68 and 73.72%/2.69 cumulative-return/Sharpe, respectively. These results support the feasibility of direct language-model token generation for financial numerical prediction and decision-making, while motivating broader tests across assets, regimes, and random seeds.

Xu Ouyang, Moontae Lee

University of Illinois Chicago

Quantitative Finance Financial Forecasting LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting Autoregressive Generation Portfolio Optimization Financial Decision-Making

Aug 7, 2026cs.LG

Residual Algebra for Representation-Preserving Learning

Learning from heterogeneous representations is usually reduced to feature concatenation, which erases which representation produced an error. We instead algebraize the residual: a representation is a typed object that owns both a coordinate system and the residual it leaves unresolved, and learning is an ordered composition of operators that preserve or deliberately erase that type. Fold realizes the objects as point-in-time conditional-mean fields on 10x10 rank grids. FPRC-PQ realizes the algebra as relax-aggregate-close: each field is relaxed by a correction fitted to its own residual in its own coordinates; corrected fields meet at a fixed mean that is the sole identity-erasure boundary; and a shared learner closes only the aggregate's fresh residual. The composition telescopes exactly into representation, local residual estimate, and residual-of-residual estimate. Its aggregate is a learned control-variate interface with population variance reduction, while refitting the closer along perturbations of the backbone yields first-order coupled-path mean orthogonality. As an analytical extension, a reflective rumination operator reads the displacement of a global reconstruction from the aggregate anchor, reflects it, and fixes its gain by a unique orthogonal projection rather than return-tuned grid search. On 3.67M Chinese A-share stock-day observations (2023-2026) under a frozen point-in-time protocol, the evaluated base algebra raises net-of-cost return from 13.52% to 19.10% and Sharpe from 1.42 to 2.09. Matched-capacity, unified-residual, identity-free two-stage, and pairwise-only controls all trail it. The gain is therefore not explained by more features or more trees, but by making residual ownership and composition explicit while representation identity is still available.

Yao Wu

Representation Learning Quantitative Finance Residual Learning

Aug 6, 2026q-fin.PM

Beyond Co-Movement: Locality by Exposures Enables a Joint Factor-Graph Framework for Portfolio Diversification

Current portfolio construction methods are either agnostic to the effects of idiosyncratic shocks (standard factor models) or to the latent data structure driving systematic returns (recent graph-based approaches). This presents an opportunity to combine the complementary market aspects captured by the factor and graph domains, allowing asset allocations to operate directly on the underlying market structure, rather than on its observed co-movement or its finite-sample artefacts. In this work, we introduce the Mutually-INformed Graph-Locality and Exposures framework (MINGLE), which mutually regularises the factor and graph domains by redefining graph locality through systematic factor exposure profiles, rather than via observed co-movements. This is formalised through a unified Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework that jointly learns a latent factor representation and its induced graph topology directly from market returns. The resulting exposure-similarity graph aligns more closely with established economic sectors than conventional correlation-based graphs. Portfolios constructed from this representation are shown to consistently outperform their correlation-based counterparts across a range of volatility regimes and transaction cost levels. For rigour, paired statistical testing confirms that these gains stem from the reconciliation of the graph and factor domains.

Sara Chehab, Giorgos Iacovides, Parisa Yazdanparast +1

Imperial College London London, UK

Graph Structure Learning Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization Finance

Aug 4, 2026q-fin.MF

From Financial Sentiment Classification to Return Predictability: A QLoRA Benchmark of Large Language Models

Financial sentiment classifiers are commonly evaluated against human labels, but strong linguistic performance does not necessarily imply economically useful return predictability. This study separates these questions through two experiments. First, we construct a unified three-class benchmark from five financial text datasets and compare TF--IDF Naive Bayes, off-the-shelf FinBERT and Financial-RoBERTa encoders, zero-shot Qwen2.5-7B, and QLoRA-adapted Qwen2.5-7B, LLaMA3-8B, and Mistral-7B models. Mistral-7B achieves the best test accuracy (0.8840) and macro-F1 (0.8771), while QLoRA raises Qwen2.5's macro-F1 from 0.7274 to 0.8615. An inverse-frequency class-weighted loss does not improve Qwen2.5. Second, we evaluate economic validity on a temporally separate 2019 Benzinga sample containing 10,637 unique headlines and 13,115 headline--stock observations for a fixed S&P~100 universe. Model probabilities are converted into continuous sentiment scores, aggregated by stock and signal date, and aligned with next-session returns over one-, two-, three-, and five-day horizons. All seven downstream models produce positive but small mean rank information coefficients at the one-day horizon; the largest is 0.0143 for FinBERT. None of the 28 model--horizon tests remains significant after Newey--West inference and false-discovery-rate correction. Portfolio results likewise fail to establish a robust advantage for the best-performing classifiers. The findings show that QLoRA is effective for financial sentiment adaptation, while also documenting a clear gap between classification accuracy and tradable cross-sectional signals.

Fusheng Luo

Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland, USA

LLM Evaluation Quantitative Finance Financial Sentiment Analysis Low-Rank Adaptation Quantization-Aware LoRA Finance