Reliable deployment of language models requires two capabilities that appear distinct but share a common geometric foundation: predicting whether a model will accept targeted behavioral control, and detecting when its internal structure degrades. We show that geometric stability, the consistency of a representation's pairwise distance structure, addresses both. Supervised Shesha variants that measure task-aligned geometric stability predict linear steerability with near-perfect accuracy (
ρ=0.89-
0.97) across 35-69 embedding models and three NLP tasks, capturing unique variance beyond class separability (partial
ρ=0.62-
0.76). A critical dissociation emerges: unsupervised stability fails entirely for steering on real-world tasks (
ρ≈0.10), revealing that task alignment is essential for controllability prediction. However, unsupervised stability excels at drift detection, measuring nearly
2× greater geometric change than CKA during post-training alignment (up to
5.23× in Llama) while providing earlier warning in 73% of models and maintaining a
6× lower false alarm rate than Procrustes. Together, supervised and unsupervised stability form complementary diagnostics for the LLM deployment lifecycle: one for pre-deployment controllability assessment, the other for post-deployment monitoring.
Prashant C. Raju