Selective Prediction

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32 papers in the last four weeks, up 88% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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How Many Labels Does Model Choice Need? Certificates and Budgets for Selective Prediction
Sep 16, 2026Tetsuji KuboyamaModel Selection Selective Prediction
Computer Centre, Gakushuin University
When to Call an LLM: A Confidence-Gated Hybrid for Cost-Effective Emotion Recognition in Conversational AI
Sep 16, 2026Sai Babu Udayagiri, Arjun Chouhan, Ravisekhar Kanagala +1LLM Inference Efficiency Selective Prediction
Five9
When Should LLMs Abstain? Chain-of-Self-Questioning for Selective Risk Control
Sep 15, 2026Ali ŞenolSelective Prediction LLM Prompting
Department of Computer Engineering, Tarsus University, Tarsus, Türkiye
Predicting Human Disagreement for Calibrated Dynamic Facial Expression Recognition
Sep 15, 2026Yiming Wang, Frederick W. B. Li, Jingyun WangAnnotator Disagreement Uncertainty Quantification
Department of Computer Science, Durham University
Symmetry-Aware Likelihood-Orbit Aggregation for Selective Left-Right Claim Verification
Sep 15, 2026Zhouzhi Xiong, Chuxi Zhang, Weizhen He +3VLM Evaluation Visual Spatial Reasoning
Polytechnic Institute, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · College of Artificial Intelligence, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China +1
When Should a World Model Move? Loss-Conditioned State Execution
Sep 14, 2026Jintao Xu, Zhengyu Chen, Ben Zhang +2Selective Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting
Supply Chain Tech Team Y, JD.com
Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting
Sep 14, 2026Aditi Tiwari, Aashrith Bandaru, Heng JiEvent Time Prediction Selective Prediction
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA
Efficiency Hallucination: Formalizing and Measuring Behavioral Calibration in LLM-Based Code Optimization
Sep 13, 2026Sarah Wilson, Gail Kaiser, Patrick MusauSelective Prediction Large Language Model-Guided Optimization
Google · Columbia University · Vanderbilt University
Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration
Sep 12, 2026Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu +2Selective Prediction Cost-Aware Inference
School of Computer Science and Technology, Xidian University Xi’an, China
Safe to Stop? Risk-Constrained Stopping for Sequential Clinical Diagnosis Agents
Sep 9, 2026Yuexin Wu, Vasile RusSelective Prediction AI Agent Evaluation
Department of Computer Science University of Memphis
SafeRestore: Detector-Relative Risk Certificates for Selective Industrial Image Restoration
Sep 3, 2026Shaoliang Yang, Jun WangSelective Prediction Industrial Inspection
Santa Clara University Santa Clara, CA 95053, USA
RACE-AIMC: Selective Inference for Heterogeneous Analog In-Memory Accelerators at the Edge
Sep 2, 2026Osama Yousuf, Martin Lueker-BodenEfficient Neural Network Inference Compute-in-Memory
WD Research San Jose, CA, USA
Measuring consistency via ensemble margin and local prediction variability: Auditing decision systems in the presence of predictive multiplicity
Sep 1, 2026Sinjini Banerjee, Tim Marrinan, Anand D. SarwateSelective Prediction Ensemble Learning
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rutgers University · Pacific Northwest National Lab
Verdict Instability of OOD Scores under Reference Resampling
Sep 1, 2026Donghoon Lee, Shinjin KangUncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction
Hongik University
TRUST: Threshold-Recalibrated Uncertainty-Safe Training for Certified Dismissal in Breast Cancer Screening
Aug 31, 2026Parham Hajishafiezahramini, Matthew Hamilton, Edward Kendall +2Breast Cancer Selective Prediction
Department of Computer Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada · 2Division of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of2026 Newfoundland, Canada · 3Cancer Care, Newfoundland and Labrador Health Services, St. John’s, NL, CanadaAug 31
DreamLedger: Where to Refuse World-Model Imagination Using Execution-Settled Credit
Aug 24, 2026Xianyao Li, Ruitong Tian, Rui Min +2Selective Prediction Robotics
Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA · Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertainty
Aug 24, 2026Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal, Sofiia Nikolenko, Fabio CuzzolinSelective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Oxford Dynamics Oxford · Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Munich · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Data Analysis and Systems (AIDAS) School of Engineering Computing & Mathematics Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK
Verifiable abstention makes AI leak diagnosis accountable in urban water distribution networks
Aug 19, 2026Tianwei Mu, Yue Wang, Mingzhe Yuan +8Selective Prediction Anomaly Localization
School of Municipal Engineering and Environment, Shenyang Jianzhu University, Shenyang 110168, China. · Guangzhou Institute of Industrial Intelligence, Guangzhou 510000, China. · Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration of Regional Contaminated Environment, Ministry of Education, College of Environment, Shenyang University, Shenyang 110044, China. +3
Conditional Validity for Adaptive Modality Acquisition: When the Policy Chooses Its Own Calibration Group
Aug 16, 2026Melika BaghiEfficient Multimodal Inference Selective Prediction
Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA
Regime-Conditional Verification: Correctness Estimation for Adapting and Monitoring Safety Classifiers
Aug 14, 2026Thiago Sandoval, Ufuk TopcuDistribution Shift Selective Prediction
The University of Texas at Austin
Predictive Memory Localization: Forecasting Selective Intervention Paths from Internal Signals
Aug 13, 2026Jinhao Jing, Tian Zeyu, Lucas Qingyang Fang +4Selective Prediction Mechanistic Interpretability
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · University of California, Santa Cruz +3
Non-Degenerate Risk Certification for Automated Security Decisions: A Decision-Contract Theory with ATT&CK-Aligned Triage as a Worked Instance
Aug 12, 2026Zhenpeng LiAI Assurance Selective Prediction
Guangzhou Health Science College, No. 248 Guangyuan Middle Road, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510405, China
Evaluating and Calibrating Diffusion Model-derived Uncertainty for Quantitative MRI Mapping
Aug 12, 2026Shishuai Wang, Stefan Klein, Juan A. Hernandez-Tamames +1Uncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction
Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands · Department of Imaging Physics, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands
Robust Ambiguity Detection (RAD) From Model- and Feature-Space Consistency
Aug 12, 2026Manya Singh, Mark T. Keane, Arjun PakrashiSelective Prediction Interpretable ML
School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
Certify or Refuse: A Cross-Model Map for Selective Risk Control with Coverage Floors under Covariate Shift
Aug 11, 2026Jiamiao Liu, Dewen Qiao, Yu Zhang +1Selective Prediction Covariate Shift
Department of Information, Xinqiao Hospital Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) Chongqing 400037, China
ConfTriage: A Calibration-Aware LLM Triage Framework for Pulmonary Nodule Malignancy with Selective Specialist Deferral
Aug 11, 2026Md Rabiul Islam, Samir Abdaljalil, Erchin Serpedin +1Selective Prediction Clinical Decision Support
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA · College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
Rethinking LLM Verification: Evidence Structure, Uncertainty, and Selective Refinement
Aug 11, 2026Uma Ranjan, Kunal Tilaganji, Aditya Koul +9LLM Grounding LLM Answer Verification
Indian Institute of Technology Jammu · Microsoft Research · SCB Dental College and Hospital, Cuttack
Metadata Reconstruction from Values Alone: Recovering Column Semantics in Undocumented Warehouses
Aug 8, 2026Mike HelwigSelective Prediction Text-to-SQL
Independent Researcher USA
TelemetrySuffBench: Is Agent Telemetry Sufficient for Failure-Origin Diagnosis?
Aug 8, 2026Yuxuan Zhu, Peng PuSelective Prediction Fault Detection
School of Data Science and Engineering East China Normal University Shanghai, China
RibAssist 3D: Biplanar Rib-Fracture Detection, Addressing, and Selective 3D Localization from CT-Derived Projections
Aug 7, 2026Kabila Haile SobokaSelective Prediction Medical Image Analysis
The University of Texas at Austin Austin, Texas, USA

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How Many Labels Does Model Choice Need? Certificates and Budgets for Selective Prediction

Tetsuji Kuboyama

Computer Centre, Gakushuin University

Model Selection Selective Prediction Classification Statistical Learning Theory

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Classifiers can make identical predictions yet require labels to compare their selective performance: confidence ranks weight the same errors differently. We quantify this requirement for the area under the generalized risk-coverage curve (AUGRC). A prelabel lower bound rules out insufficient budgets. With all labels known, a covering linear program bounds the minimum number of labels sufficient to fix the winner (the certificate size) within

K-1

labels for

K

candidates. For fixed

K

, independent uniform orders and identical predictions, the prelabel bound approaches one quarter of the pool. With iid Bernoulli errors independent of the orders, every exact acquisition policy reads almost all labels asymptotically, although a two-candidate certificate needs only half. Across 108 feature-panel comparisons on nine datasets, disagreement labels settle every accuracy choice but no AUGRC choice. A 20% budget is ruled out in 96 conditions; certificates need 56-57% on average. On ten conditions with pretrained image classifiers, confidence-score choice reads 68-91% of 10,000 labels for exact selection and 50-67% with AUGRC tolerance

5\times10^{-4}

. An exact stopping test works with any acquisition order. Together, these results link confidence ranks to label budgets and certified model comparison.

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