Time Series Classification

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15 papers in the last four weeks, up 114% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 129

Jul 30, 2026cs.AI

HealthCAT: An Interpretable Encoder-only Transformer Framework for Health Indicator Prediction and Temporal Interpretation of Wearable Sensor Data

Wearable sensors continuously capture fine-grained multivariate time-series data, providing opportunities to model behavioural patterns associated with health outcomes. However, existing deep learning methods prioritise predictive accuracy over interpretability, limiting their application in health research. In this study, we present HealthCAT, a flexible framework that integrates an Encoder-only Transformer with an Attentive Class Activation Token (AttentiveCAT) to generate class-specific, time-step-level interpretations. These interpretations can be mapped back onto behavioural cycles that are relevant to the domain (e.g., time-of-day), supporting individual-level analysis of wearable sensor data. We evaluated HealthCAT using two real-world wearable sensor datasets (306 participants in total). HealthCAT outperformed deep learning baselines by up to 17% in F1-score and 12% in accuracy on both datasets (

p<0.05

). In masking experiments, the time steps identified by HealthCAT carried significantly more predictive value than random selection across all masking conditions (

p<0.05

), indicating that the identified time steps are predictively informative. By coupling predictive performance with validated time-step-level interpretability, HealthCAT moves wearable sensor analysis beyond aggregated metrics towards temporal patterns that support health monitoring, behavioural pattern analysis, and intervention design in health research. The significance of this work is that it enables accurate prediction of health indicators from wearable sensor data while providing insights into when and how physical activity patterns occur, rather than relying solely on aggregated summary measures.

Xiaotong Yu, Joshua Y. Kim, HaeJin Lee +1

Transformer Interpretability Explainable Artificial Intelligence Time Series Classification Wearable Health Monitoring Time Series Transformers

Jul 25, 2026cs.LG

Bitcoin Price Direction Prediction via Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Fusion of Social Sentiment and Technical Features

Bitcoin price prediction on sub-daily timescales is a hard open problem in computational finance. Bitcoin exhibits fat-tailed returns, non-stationary dynamics, and a price discovery process influenced by social discourse on Reddit and Twitter. Conventional approaches fuse OHLCV technical features with sentiment via static concatenation, applying identical fusion weights regardless of market state. This is inconsistent with the behavioural finance literature, which shows that retail sentiment is most predictive during volatile periods and noisy during calm ones. This paper proposes Regime-Aware Multi-Modal Learning (RAML), which conditions fusion of sentiment and price features on a dynamically detected binary market regime. Rolling 24-hour volatility partitions observations into stable and volatile regimes; a learnable sigmoid gate adjusts the weight of the sentiment embedding relative to the price embedding, trusting sentiment more during volatility and price dynamics more during stable phases. The system is evaluated on 3,491 hourly observations (July 2024-September 2025), combining Bitcoin OHLCV data with Reddit /r/Bitcoin FinBERT sentiment. Four models are compared - price-only BiLSTM, sentiment-only classifier, static-concatenation BiLSTM, and RAML - across 3-hour and 6-hour horizons, with an ablation study isolating the sentiment branch, regime detection, and adaptive fusion. RAML achieves macro-F1 of 0.5474 (3h) and 0.5513 (6h), with the highest AUC at 3 hours (0.5084), indicating better calibration. Ablation confirms every component is necessary, and replacing adaptive weighting with concatenation causes recall collapse at 6 hours (F1: 0.14). These results establish regime-conditioned adaptive fusion as a necessary design principle for multi-modal financial forecasting.

Muhammad Abdullah Haroon

Department of Computer Science, FAST National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences (FAST-NUCES), Lahore, Pakistan

Quantitative Finance Time Series Classification Financial Time Series Multimodal Fusion Finance

Jul 25, 2026cs.LG

Sensitivity Analysis of GRU, LSTM and Transformer Encoder in Classification of Automated Driving Systems

Automated driving systems (ADSs) are becoming ubiquitous. Future Software Defined Vehicles (SDVs) may be able to run multiple ADSs, both native and aftermarket such as Comma.ai's Openpilot. Monitoring systems to independently verify which automated driving system is active are important for safety monitoring, regulatory compliance, insurance assessment, and anomaly detection. In this paper, we first evaluate the effectiveness of three sequence-based classification models: Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and a Transformer encoder model for identifying Level 2 automated driving systems using vehicle telematics data alone: Comma Openpilot, Tesla Autopilot, and Cadillac Super Cruise, along with manual driving. All three models achieve strong clean-data performance with macro F1-scores of 0.92 (GRU), 0.90 (LSTM), and 0.93 (Transformer encoder model) when trained on clean data; threat-matched training yields 0.904-0.916 macro F1 with only a modest clean-data penalty. Second, we introduce a modular robustness evaluation framework that simulates realistic telematics degradation through five corruption families at five severity levels (L1-L5). Continuous channels are perturbed using additive white Gaussian noise with cumulative drift, correlated cross-channel noise, and temporal jitter. Binary event signals are subjected to burst loss, delayed transitions, spurious toggles and cross-feature inconsistencies inspired by communication errors. Robustness is measured using macro-F1, which gives equal weight to each class and is suitable for imbalanced multiclass evaluation. Our evaluation reveals a sharp failure-mode split: event-level corruptions reduce macro-F1 only slightly (greater than equal to 0.87 at L5), while temporal jitter collapses macro-F1 to 0.44-0.50 across GRU, LSTM, and Transformer encoder model.

Bidhya Shrestha, Christos Papadopoulos

University of Memphis

Transformer Time Series Classification Recurrent Neural Networks

Jul 24, 2026cs.LG

CC-AOS: Cost- and Horizon-Conditioned Amortized Backward Induction for Finite-Horizon Optimal Stopping

Finite-horizon optimal stopping is a central problem in early time-series classification, where a system must decide at each sequence prefix whether the expected benefit of another observation justifies its acquisition cost. Existing data-driven backward-induction methods typically solve each cost-horizon operating point separately, so changing operating conditions requires repeated optimization and separate model stacks, making continuous cost adaptation and multi-horizon deployment inefficient. We propose CC-AOS (Cost- and Horizon-Conditioned Amortized Optimal Stopping), a structured amortized solver for a family of finite-horizon stopping problems with continuous costs and multiple horizons. CC-AOS learns a shared continuation-value model conditioned on the current state, absolute time, remaining horizon, and acquisition cost through joint amortized fitted backward induction. We establish that the exact value and continuation functions are nondecreasing, concave, and horizon-dependently Lipschitz in cost, encode these properties in the model architecture, and derive residual-based bounds on value and policy errors. Experiments on controlled Gaussian and time-varying non-Gaussian processes and the FordA engine-noise time-series benchmark compare CC-AOS with representative per-operating-point backward-induction solvers and tuned static stopping rules. At six unseen FordA cost-horizon pairs, one CC-AOS checkpoint achieved a lower terminal-risk-plus-sampling-cost objective than independently fitted Convex Function Learning at all six pairs, with an average reduction of 15.75 percent, while matching the tuned static thresholds on average.

Tianwei Yu

Time Series Classification Cost-Aware Inference Optimal Stopping

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Beyond Sufficiency: Time Series Explanation with Counterfactual Necessity

Faithful explanations of time-series classifiers should identify subsequences that are not only sufficient to preserve a black-box model's prediction, but also necessary for maintaining it. However, existing sufficiency-oriented methods can assign high importance to spurious subsequences that support the prediction without being essential to the model's decision. We introduce \textbf{TimePNS}, a necessity-aware framework for time-series explanation. Inspired by Pearl's counterfactual notion of necessity, TimePNS assesses whether a temporal factor is necessary by intervening on it and measuring whether the original prediction is disrupted. The framework adopts a two-stage design. Stage I learns an identifiable causal generative process together with a sufficiency-oriented explanation mask. Stage II performs counterfactual interventions on temporal factors to derive necessity signals, which supervise a temporal gate that refines the initial explanation by suppressing non-essential components and emphasizing counterfactually necessary ones. Experiments on synthetic and real-world time-series benchmarks show that TimePNS more accurately identifies decision-critical subsequences and consistently improves sufficiency-necessity trade-offs over strong baselines.

Hongnan Ma, Yiwei Shi, Mengyue Yang +1

School of Computer Science, University of Bristol · School of Engineering Mathematics and Technology, University of Bristol

Counterfactual Explanations Time Series Classification Causal Interpretability

Jul 22, 2026cs.LG

Multi-modal transformer for signal classification in nanopore blockade experiments

Nanopore devices have emerged as powerful tools for single-molecule sensing, with potential for rapid, portable diagnostics. They detect changes in ionic current as analytes enter nanometer-scale pores, providing a means of identifying diverse biomarkers from their characteristic signal patterns. However, these signals are highly complex, and reliably assigning them to specific molecules remains a major challenge. Here, we address this by introducing a multi-modal deep learning architecture that jointly processes multiple signal representations, including raw time-series data, wavelet-based images, and static feature vectors. Our approach surpasses existing methods by more than 10 percentage points on a 42-peptide benchmark and transfers to a 20-amino-acid dataset with near-perfect accuracy. The model integrates complementary information from these representations, with attention analysis showing that the time-series and wavelet-image inputs emphasize different features of the same event. Together, these results demonstrate the potential of machine learning to enable robust, high-accuracy molecular identification with nanopore sensors.

Sandro Kuppel, Julian Hoßbach, Samuel Tovey +1

Institute for Computational Physics University of Stuttgart Allmandring 3, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany

Transformer Time Series Classification Multimodal Classification

Jul 21, 2026cs.LG

In-Context Time Series Classification with Random Convolutional Features

Time series classification is central to domains such as medical signal analysis, industrial monitoring, and sensor-based activity recognition, where class information manifests as localized shapes, specific frequencies, temporal shifts, or complex cross-channel interactions. Random convolutional transforms capture these diverse patterns by converting time series into rich, fixed-dimensional feature representations that can be processed by standard tabular classifiers. While these representations are traditionally paired with simple linear models, we investigate whether a pretrained tabular foundation model can exploit them more effectively and how its performance depends on the available data and inference budget. We propose MASHT, a pipeline that combines MultiRocket and Hydra features with an in-context tabular foundation model. Our approach uses a pretrained tabular foundation model to bypass task-specific model training, requiring only feature extraction and direct inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MASHT matches state-of-the-art time series classification baselines on univariate tasks, achieving a lower average rank than HIVE-COTE 2.0. On multivariate datasets, MASHT remains highly competitive with the strongest reference methods. Controlled resource experiments show that compact feature tables retain most of the accuracy at substantially lower runtime, while TabPFN outperforms a matched linear baseline across the evaluated label budgets on univariate tasks. These results highlight practical trade-offs between predictive performance, labeled data, and inference cost.

Joscha Cüppers, Jilles Vreeken

CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security

Tabular Foundation Models Time Series Classification Tabular ICL

Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

TypiCore: A Hybrid Active Query Strategy for Class-Incremental Learning on Time Series

Time series data play a pivotal role across numerous domains, including healthcare and manufacturing. In real-world environments, models must cope with distribution shifts over time, a challenge commonly addressed through Continual Learning (CL) techniques. However, existing CL methods face a critical limitation: real-world data streams are rarely fully labeled, making annotation cost a major practical constraint. This paper investigates Active Class-Incremental Learning (ACIL) for multivariate time series, where a model must sequentially learn new classes while selectively querying labels under a fixed annotation budget. We present a systematic evaluation of a wide range of query strategies combined with multiple rehearsal-based approaches, assessing their impact on plasticity, stability, and label efficiency across four benchmark datasets. Our analysis reveals the limitations of uncertainty-based and distribution-aware methods in achieving strong performance under constrained labeling budgets. To address these shortcomings, we propose TypiCore, a novel hybrid query strategy that alternates between typicality-based and diversity-based sample selection across active learning cycles, enabling the construction of memory buffers that are both representative and diverse. Evaluated on the TSCIL benchmark, TypiCore delivers statistically significant improvements over all baselines and matches or surpasses fully supervised continual learning performance on multiple datasets while requiring a fraction of the available labels.

Gabor Szucs, Samuel Jacsev, Marcell Nemeth +2

Department of Telecommunications and Artificial Intelligence, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary. · Department of Information Engineering, University of Padua, Padua, Italy.

Class-Incremental Learning Time Series Classification Active Learning

Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

Scaling Time Series Classification via XAI-Driven Data Reduction

Explainable AI (XAI) for time series has seen significant algorithmic growth, but its utility in providing measurable performance gains for downstream tasks remains under-explored. This paper bridges this gap by introducing drXAI, a novel methodology that repurposes XAI attribution methods for effective data reduction in Time Series Classification (TSC). The core challenge in modern TSC is scalability; state-of-the-art models, such as Transformers, exhibit quadratic complexity relative to sequence length and linear complexity relative to the number of channels. This renders them computationally prohibitive for massive datasets. drXAI addresses this by using a fast, GPU-accelerated classifier (Hydra) to generate local attributions. We aggregate these into global feature importance scores and employ an automated elbow-cut heuristic to select the most salient features without requiring manual thresholds. We evaluate our approach on both synthetic and real-world univariate and multivariate datasets. On synthetic benchmarks, drXAI successfully recovers ground-truth features where traditional baselines fail. On real-world data, drXAI achieves between 80% and 90% data reduction while maintaining classification accuracy comparable to models trained on the full dataset. Most importantly, we show that drXAI allows resource-intensive models like ConvTran to scale to datasets that were previously inaccessible due to memory constraints. Our results show the benefits of using XAI not just for interpretability, but as a robust tool for feature selection and scalability in time series analysis. All our code and data are openly available.

Davide Italo Serramazza, Thach Le Nguyen, Georgiana Ifrim

School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, Ireland

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Time Series Classification Feature Selection Dimensionality Reduction

Jul 8, 2026quant-ph

QCNN with Rough Path Signature Kernels

Time series analysis plays a vital role across a wide range of scientific and engineering domains but poses substantial computational challenges. A major difficulty arises from the time reparameterization invariance of time series data, which complicates the extraction of meaningful temporal features. In this work, we address the problem of time series classification by exploring the application of quantum computation techniques. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical architecture that integrates recent advances in quantum neural networks with the mathematical framework of path signatures, mitigating the impact of time reparametrization invariance. The architecture employs feature layers that compute a signature kernel between pairs of input paths, consisting of a reference path and a target path for classification, using either classical or quantum variational linear solvers (VQLS). These feature layers are followed by a Quantum Convolutional Neural Network (QCNN) to perform downstream learning tasks. We evaluate several realizations of the proposed architecture, differing in QCNN configurations, on a binary classification task involving time series representations of handwritten digits. Our experiments demonstrate the potential advantages of implementing path signature kernel layers within quantum circuits and provide an analysis of the computational limitations associated with the VQLS component.

Leonardo Nogueira Falabella, Vasily Sazonov

Université Paris-Saclay, CEA, List, F-91120, Palaiseau, France

Time Series Classification Quantum Convolutional Neural Networks Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML Kernel Methods Quantum Neural Networks

Jul 8, 2026cs.LG

TimEE: End-to-end Time Series Classification via In-Context Learning

Time series classification (TSC) is dominated by a two-stage paradigm: train a feature encoder -- either from scratch on the target dataset or via pretraining on large corpora -- and then fit a task-specific classifier on top. While effective, this decoupling optimizes representation learning independently of the classification objective, requires per-dataset training, and prevents the model from exploiting label information during inference. We introduce TimEE, a 4.5M-parameter foundation model for end-to-end TSC via in-context learning. Given a labeled support set and a query time series, TimEE directly outputs a predicted class distribution in a single forward pass with no per-dataset training required. Following the prior-data fitted network (PFN) framework, TimEE is meta-trained exclusively on synthetic TSC tasks, where each task contains time series with distinct class identities arising from structured distributional shifts in the generative process. Despite seeing no real time series during pre-training, TimEE ranks first in ROC AUC (and third on accuracy) on the UCR benchmark among all compared methods, which include both foundation models and supervised deep learning baselines. To our knowledge, TimEE is the first purely synthetic-pretrained model to reach state-of-the-art performance on the UCR benchmark. These results establish end-to-end ICL with synthetic priors as a compelling, largely unexplored direction for TSC, with scaling, prior design, and richer generation mechanisms as natural avenues for improvement. Code is publicly available at http://github.com/automl/timee.

Jaris Küken, Shi Bin Hoo, Martin Mráz +2

University of Freiburg · Zuse School ELIZA Darmstadt · Prior Labs +1

Synthetic Data Pretraining Time Series Classification In-Context Learning Classification Time-Series Foundation Models

Jul 7, 2026cs.LG

Enhancing deep learning models for time series classification via knowledge distillation

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in various domains including time series analysis, computer vision and natural language processing. However, high computational and memory demands of state-of-the-art architectures pose challenges for deployment in resource-limited environments. Knowledge Distillation (KD) addresses this by transferring knowledge from a large teacher model to a smaller, more efficient student model while maintaining competitive performance. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of KD for Time Series Classification (TSC) across three architectures: the classical Fully Convolutional Network (FCN), the convolutional Inception model and the transformer-based ConvTran model. We evaluate our approach on UCR Archive, the largest benchmark repository of time series datasets, by modifying architectural components such as convolutional filters, Inception modules and attention heads across the three architectures. Our results consistently show that KD most effectively benefits student models of intermediate complexity across all three architectures, with the distilled FCN student reducing parameters by a factor of 38, the distilled Inception student achieving nearly the same performance as the teacher with 42% fewer parameters and the distilled ConvTran student with 2 attention heads showing the most significant improvement through distillation. To encourage further research and reproducibility, we provide our implementation at https://github.com/MSD-IRIMAS/KD-4-TSC.

Javidan Abdullayev, Maxime Devanne, Jonathan Weber +1

IRIMAS, University of Haute Alsace, Frères Lumière, Mulhouse 68200, France · Faculty of IT, Monash University, Wellington Road, Melbourne 3800, Australia

Time Series Classification Knowledge Distillation Neural Network Compression

Jul 6, 2026cs.CV

VEIL: How Visual Encoding Hijacking Induces Bias In Vision Models

Rendering time series as chart images for CNN-based classification has become increasingly common in time-series classification (TSC). However, it remains unclear whether models learn underlying temporal patterns or rely on encoding-specific visual cues introduced by chart design. We present VEIL: a systematic study examining how chart encodings influence learned representations through complementary analyses of similarity, transferability, and attribution. Attention-guided training appears to mitigate this effect when encoding sensitivity is consistently identified across diagnostics, but provides limited or negative benefit when such signals are absent. These findings position VEIL within the broader question of how machines perceive visualizations -- extending graphical perception from human readers to vision models -- and show that visualization design choices shape learned representations in ways that warrant treating chart-based TSC as a representation and measurement problem rather than a simple modeling decision.

Suranjana Sooraj, Xuyang Chen, Madhumitha Venkatesan +1

University of California, Davis

Scientific Visualization Data Visualization Visual Representation Learning Time Series Classification

Jul 1, 2026cs.LG

LeNEPA: No-Augmentation Next-Latent Prediction for Time-Series Representation Learning

Time series are central to modern data mining applications, from industrial telemetry and server metrics to finance and physiology, yet time-series self-supervised learning often depends on view and augmentation choices that encode domain-specific invariances. We study how an SSL recipe behaves when its method-specific configuration is reused unchanged after the pretraining signal family changes, framing this as a fixed-recipe stress test rather than a comparison against optimally tuned methods. We introduce Latent Euclidean Next-Embedding Prediction Architecture (LeNEPA), a no-augmentation next-latent-token objective with a causal backbone. LeNEPA replaces the stop-gradient/EMA stabilization used by vanilla NEPA with SIGReg-based isotropy regularization and computes the predictive loss in a lightweight projected space that is discarded for evaluation. We compare LeNEPA with an ECG-tuned JEPA recipe under a fixed-horizon frozen-probe protocol on PTB-XL and Diag, a synthetic diagnostic corpus generated with Aionoscope. Both methods are retrained independently on each dataset while keeping their method-specific recipes unchanged. In this protocol, the ECG-tuned JEPA recipe is strong in-domain on PTB-XL but weaker when reused unchanged on Diag, whereas LeNEPA preserves useful frozen-probe gains on both datasets. Learning curves suggest faster early representation acquisition: LeNEPA reaches 80% of its final AUROC/AUPRC gain after 2--5k updates, compared with 5--10k updates for the faster JEPA readout. As a separate external frozen-encoder check, a CauKer-pretrained LeNEPA variant reaches 77.65% mean UCR-128 Random-Forest accuracy in a single-seed, best-checkpoint run, within 1.16 points of Mantis and within 0.24 points of MOMENT (77.89%). Overall, the results support no-augmentation latent prediction as a useful candidate recipe for low-retuning time-series SSL.

Alexander Chemeris, Ming Jin, Randall Balestriero

Langotime · South Africa · Griffith University +3

Time Series Classification Self-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture

Jun 30, 2026astro-ph.IM

Leveraging Multimodality for Real-Time Classification of Transients and Variables found by the Zwicky Transient Facility

Modern time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) generate hundreds of thousands of alerts each night, making real-time decisions for follow-up observations a central challenge in time-domain astronomy. Robust early classification is crucial for making informed decisions, but is hindered by sparse light curves and degeneracies between classes. In this work, we leverage multimodality to substantially improve real-time classification and demonstrate the practicality of our approach by deploying our model on the ZTF alert stream. Building on the Online Ranked Astrophysical CLass Estimator (ORACLE), we introduce the ORACLE-2 models, which combine light curves, metadata, and images for real-time hierarchical classification. Using both real and simulated datasets, we show that incorporating additional modalities consistently improves classification performance. On observations from ZTF's Bright Transient Survey, our best-performing model, ORACLE-2 Omni, achieves a macro F1 score of 0.73 -- an improvement of up to 11% over models using light curves and metadata alone, and up to 40% over light-curve-only models, with the strongest gains realized at early times. To demonstrate applicability to the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will increase alert volume by more than an order of magnitude, we train a light curve + metadata variant on the simulated ELAsTiCC dataset. This model achieves a macro F1 score of 0.88, an improvement of up to 13% over the light-curve-only variant, matching the performance of other state-of-the-art models. Finally, we quantify the trade-offs between performance and throughput, identifying regimes where multimodal approaches offer the greatest benefit. These results show that combining multiple modalities improves early-time classification, enabling more effective triage of high-volume alert streams for current and future time-domain surveys.

Ved G. Shah, Nabeel Rehemtulla, Adam A. Miller +13

Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA · Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA), 1800 Sherman Ave, Evanston, IL 60201, USA · NSF-Simons AI Institute for the Sky (SkAI), 172 E. Chestnut St., Chicago, IL 60611, USA +8

Hierarchical Classification Time Series Classification Multimodal Classification Multimodal Fusion

Jun 30, 2026cs.AI

A time-series classification framework for individual-level absenteeism prediction under severe class imbalance

Staff absenteeism imposes substantial operational costs in high-demand work environments such as healthcare, emergency services, meat processing, construction, and courier and delivery services, where proactive workforce planning depends on reliable individual-level absence prediction. Existing regression and classification approaches share a structural limitation; they map features observed at time t to labels at the same time t, reproducing already-realised outcomes rather than predicting future events, and discard the sequential behavioural structure inherent in individual attendance histories. We propose a Time Series Classification (TSC) framework that separates historical attendance sequences from future absence labels, enabling genuinely proactive prediction. Due to the lack of public longitudinal attendance data, we construct a reproducible simulated dataset calibrated to the UCI dataset. We analyse Binary Focal Loss (BFL) and Geometric Mean (G-Mean) loss under severe class imbalance using only the imbalance ratio

ρ

. For BFL, the initial gradient ratio is

ρα/(1-α)

, implying the balanced weight

α= 1/(1+ρ) \approx 0.023

. Experiments show that performance is governed mainly by

α

, with BFL achieving specificity 0.813 and balanced accuracy 0.888, comparable to G-Mean. Unlike BFL, G-Mean adapts automatically without parameter calibration. Among three deep learning architectures evaluated, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and the hybrid LSTM-Fully Convolutional Network (LSTM-FCN), the LSTM-FCN delivers strong precision and specificity. Stable performance is obtained with batch sizes >= 64 and window sizes between 40-80 days, yielding balanced accuracy of approximately 80% on held-out test data.

Kwong Ho Li, Matthew Roughan, Wathsala Karunarathne

School of Mathematical Sciences, Adelaide University, SA 5000, Australia

Class-Imbalanced Learning Time Series Classification Time Series Forecasting

Jun 26, 2026quant-ph

Quantum Dynamic Time Warping for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a cornerstone for time series classification, but its reliance on Euclidean distances fails to capture latent cross-channel correlations in complex multivariate data. We propose a hybrid Quantum Dynamic Time Warping (qDTW) architecture, replacing the classical distance metric with the parameterized geometry of a quantum Hilbert space. Through structural ablation on benchmarks up to

C=8

spatial dimensions, we establish fundamental topological rules for quantum sequence alignment. We introduce a Unified Pre-Embedding Adjoint Ansatz that decouples trainable entanglement from classical data, eliminating the severe phase-scrambling and information bottlenecks inherent to traditional measurements. We demonstrate this decoupled architecture allows untrained quantum kernels to act as highly expressive baselines, while parameterized training effectively untangles deeply overlapping hyper-dimensional data. Furthermore, we identify a strict spatial-temporal expressivity tradeoff: temporal depth (data re-uploading) is necessary for dimensionally restricted univariate circuits, but applying it to wide multi-qubit registers triggers chaotic frequency-spectrum explosions and representation collapse. By navigating these topological hazards, our multivariate quantum architecture outperforms classical baselines, setting a new standard for integrating parameterized quantum circuits with dynamic programming

Diego Alvarez-Estevez, Alejandro Mayorga-Redondo, Eduardo Mosqueira-Rey

CITIC Research Center · Universidade da Coruña · A Coruña, 15071, Spain

Dynamic Time Warping Multivariate Time Series Classification Time Series Classification Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML Quantum Kernel Methods Variational Quantum Circuits

Jun 26, 2026cs.LG

Are Time-Series Foundation Models Ready for E-Nose Data? An Empirical Assessment of Their Embeddings

Inspired by advances in natural language processing and computer vision, "time-series foundation models" (TSFMs) have recently been introduced with the promise of strong generalization across diverse time-series tasks, including forecasting, classification, and anomaly detection, as well as across domains such as healthcare, climate science, and manufacturing. However, their utility for gas-sensing data remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, this paper systematically evaluates recent TSFMs on electronic nose (E-Nose) data. In particular, we investigate whether embeddings produced by representative TSFMs, including Chronos-2 and MOMENT, provide effective representations for gas identification and concentration prediction. Specifically, we show that fine-tuning is necessary to achieve satisfactory performance on E-Nose data, and fusing TSFM embeddings with representations learned by specialized predictive models can further improve the performance, suggesting both the potential and limitations of current TSFMs for gas-sensing applications.

Taeyeong Choi, Mohammed Kamruzzaman

Department of Information Technology Kennesaw State University Marietta, GA 30060, USA · Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL 61801, USA

Time Series Classification Time Series Representation Learning Time-Series Foundation Models

Jun 24, 2026cs.CV

Naturalness Predicts but Does Not Cause Transferability in Image Encodings of Real-World Streams

A common practice converts a one-dimensional signal into an image so that a vision backbone pretrained on natural photographs can be reused for recognition, yet the encoded image is rarely examined. We ask how the visual naturalness of an encoded image relates to its transfer accuracy under a frozen backbone. We build WorldStream, a corpus of 299 heterogeneous current-value series from key-free public APIs (weather, air quality, earthquakes, gold and oil, equities, crypto, foreign exchange, web activity and space weather), with a nine-way source-recognition task over 3143 temporally split windows. Across seven encodings and six frozen backbones, the Frechet distance of an encoding to natural images (FID) predicts its accuracy: Spearman

ρ=-0.72

. Two controlled interventions show this is not causal in the spectrum. Our invertible encoder has a single adjustable part, a spectral exponent

β

(power

\propto |f|^{-β}

); varying

β

moves the image toward or away from the natural-image manifold at fixed content. FID is lowest near the natural value

β\approx 2

, but frozen accuracy stays flat and far below the structured baselines (19.2% vs. 73.0%), and FID and accuracy are only weakly related over the sweep (Pearson

-0.32

). A second intervention, phase scrambling, holds the power spectrum exactly fixed while removing local structure; now FID and accuracy fall together (Pearson

-0.89

). The cross-encoding correlation is thus mediated by local structure, not spectral naturalness: FID predicts accuracy because Inception reads the same structure the backbones do. Full fine-tuning does not close the gap (27% vs. 67%), so the deficit is structural. The encoder is exactly invertible, recovering the signal from the 8-bit image at 72.9 dB, so the image doubles as a lossless record of the data.

Faruk Alpay, Baris Basaran

Department of Computer Engineering, Bahçeşehir University, Istanbul, Turkey

Time Series Classification Transfer Learning Time Series Representation Learning

Jun 22, 2026stat.ML

Time Series Classification through Diffeomorphic Time Warping (DiffTW)

Time series classification involves learning a mapping from a continuous, temporally ordered sequence of real-valued observations to a discrete response variable, like class labels. This task is fundamental in domains, including health monitoring, where the temporal structure of data is critical for accurate prediction. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is a standard technique for measuring similarity between sequences varying in time or speed. However, DTW is restricted to discrete point matching. To move beyond pairwise alignment, we propose a theoretical framework that learns mappings between real-valued functions. These mappings approximate the flow associated with the characteristic curves of a linear transport equation with a space-dependent velocity field, providing a diffeomorphic transformation between two time series. Using the method of characteristics, we transform this partial differential equation into ordinary differential equations (ODEs) modeling system dynamics. The objective function used to learn these ODEs derives from the fundamental theorem of calculus. To enable flexible, expressive representations of the velocity field, we utilize reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and optimal control methods. Our method, Diffeomorphic Time Warping (DiffTW), provides a theoretically grounded dissimilarity measure. Using a 1-nearest neighbor classifier, DiffTW outperforms DTW on 60 of 86 datasets.

Vicky Geneva Haney, Kamel Lahouel, Victor Rielly +1

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Portland State University, USA · The Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen), USA

Dynamic Time Warping Time Series Classification Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

Jun 20, 2026cs.LG

Learning by Shifting: Temporal View Construction for Time Series Contrastive Learning

Supervised learning demands large quantities of labeled data, a bottleneck that is expensive and reliant on domain-specific expertise. Self-supervised learning, particularly contrastive learning, has emerged as a compelling alternative, enabling rich representation learning directly from unlabeled data. Yet its success hinges critically on the design of positive and negative sample pairs. Existing approaches for time series rely on hand-crafted augmentations and masking heuristics that embed strong domain assumptions, often limiting generalization across diverse temporal patterns and potentially introducing spurious correlations. In this work, we challenge this paradigm by demonstrating that explicitly encoding temporal shift invariance through a simple, deterministic view construction is sufficient to learn strong representations for time series classification. By exploiting temporal structure, our method, Shift Invariant Feature Training (ShiFT), achieves state-of-the-art performance on six diverse real-world time series benchmark datasets, as well as the UCR and UEA archives, while reducing training time. Beyond empirical performance, we present a systematic analysis of contrastive learning dynamics in time series settings, examining the effects of batch size and the number of negatives on downstream performance. Our findings provide practical insights for designing efficient contrastive learning frameworks for time series representation learning. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/sfi-norwai/ShiFT.

Abdul-Kazeem Shamba, Kerstin Bach, Gavin Taylor

Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway · United States Naval Academy, USA

Contrastive Learning Time Series Classification Self-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning Time Series Data Augmentation Invariant Representation Learning

Jun 19, 2026cs.LG

RocketPFN: Accurate Time Series Classification via In-Context Learning

We introduce RocketPFN, a training-free pipeline for time series classification that combines random convolutional feature extraction (Rocket) with in-context classification via a pretrained tabular foundation model (TabPFN v2.5). On 92 UCR datasets (30-resample protocol), RocketPFN matches HC2, the strongest published method on the archive, in mean accuracy (both 0.900, Wilcoxon p=0.50), with no training on the target data and a median inference time of 30 seconds per fold. It also significantly outperforms every individual classifier in the HC2 ensemble. On UEA (20 datasets) the difference is likewise not statistically significant. A separate comparison concerns TSC foundation models: when paired with the same downstream classifier, MOMENT, Mantis, and MantisV2 are all significantly outperformed by RocketPFN using fewer extracted features and no learned parameters (p<0.001 in each case). This holds even when the encoders were pretrained on corpora that include the UCR training samples. We propose this two-stage pipeline as a reference point for evaluating zero-shot TSC foundation models.

Franco Martino O'Rourke, Ana Trisovic, Dimitris Bertsimas

Time Series Classification Classification Time-Series Foundation Models

Jun 19, 2026cs.LG

A Causal DAG Prior for Synthetic Time-Series Classification Datasets

A Prior-data fitted Network learns the posterior predictive induced by its training prior; bringing this paradigm to multivariate time-series classification therefore calls for a synthetic generator that produces complete labelled datasets with temporal structure. We introduce a causal prior that synthesizes each dataset from a randomly sampled DAG over typed nodes across two modalities (tabular attributes and time series), natively producing multivariate, multi-class TSC datasets with cross-modal causal structure across channels, timesteps and labels, a regime not addressed by existing synthetic priors. To validate the prior, we finetune TabPFN v2.5 with minimal adaptations and evaluate on 75 UCR/UEA datasets within TabPFN's operating regime. Finetuning on our generator significantly outperforms both the unmodified upstream model and a tabular-only ablation of the same prior (Wilcoxon signed-rank

p=3.0\times 10^{-8}

on ROC-AUC), isolating the contribution of the cross-modal temporal structure.

Franco Martino O'Rourke, Ana Trisovic, Dimitris Bertsimas

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Structural Causal Models Multivariate Time Series Classification Time Series Classification Synthetic Data Generation Time Series Generation Prior-Data Fitted Networks

Jun 19, 2026cs.LG

MedTS-TTT: Test-Time Training for Medical Time Series Classification

Medical time series (MedTS) signals such as electroencephalography (EEG) and electrocardiography (ECG) support many clinical applications. However, substantial subject-level heterogeneity often induces subject-level distribution shift, causing a fixed parameter set to generalize poorly to unseen individuals. Compared with domain adaptation methods that often depend on extra adaptation components or target-batch statistics, Test-Time Training (TTT) provides a more practical solution for sequential clinical data by enabling online adaptation from unlabeled test samples. However, many representative TTT methods require iterative inner-loop optimization, increasing test-time overhead. In this paper, we propose MedTS-TTT, a test-time training framework for medical time series modeling. MedTS-TTT is built upon Closed-Loop Self-Alignment Test-Time Training (CLSA-TTT) and a Gated Convolutional Backbone (GCB). CLSA-TTT constructs a token-level self-supervised target and performs a single-step fast-weight update for intra-layer closed-loop alignment, enabling rapid sample-wise adaptation without iterative inner-loop optimization. GCB combines CLSA-TTT-based fast adaptation and token-level fusion with a gated convolutional branch to balance local dynamic modeling and information-flow control. On 4 public datasets (2 EEG and 2 ECG) with subject-independent splits, MedTS-TTT achieves 11 top-1 rankings out of 12 evaluations across 9 baselines and 3 metrics. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/mingzhi-c/MedTS-TTT.

Mingzhi Chen, Yiyu Gui, Guibo Luo

Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ultra High Definition Immersive Media Technology, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen, China

Time Series Classification Electrocardiogram Classification Test-Time Training

Jun 17, 2026cs.CV

ROSA-TFormer: A Radar-Optical Sensor-Aware Temporal Transformer for Pinus sylvestris Plantation Classification in Northern Shaanxi Using GEE-Derived Sentinel-1/2 Time Series

Accurate identification of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica plantations is important for monitoring afforestation quality and ecological restoration in northern Shaanxi. This paper proposes ROSA-TFormer, a radar-optical sensor-aware temporal Transformer for P. sylvestris classification using Sentinel-1/2 time-series data generated on Google Earth Engine. The model integrates separate SAR and optical embedding branches, a sensor-aware gate, and temporal attention pooling to capture multi-source seasonal features. Experiments on monthly and half-month point-level datasets show that ROSA-TFormer achieves strong classification performance, with 99.67% overall accuracy, 99.56% macro F1, and 98.91% P. sylvestris F1 on the HalfMonth-dataBig dataset. Spatial block validation and ablation results further indicate the effectiveness of radar-optical temporal fusion and sensor-aware modeling. The results demonstrate the potential of ROSA-TFormer for point-level P. sylvestris plantation classification, while broader wall-to-wall validation remains necessary.

Nengbo Zhang, Chang sheng

Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences (AIRCAS), Beijing 100101, China

Time Series Classification Land Cover Classification Tree Species Classification Remote Sensing Time Series Transformers Multimodal Sensor Fusion

Jun 14, 2026cs.LG

Inference-Time Decision Calibration for Temporal Classification

Temporal classification errors are often treated as representation failures, but they can also arise from how available evidence is converted into decisions. This paper proposes a representation--calibration decomposition for temporal classification. We keep a trained native classifier frozen and separate two inference-time interventions: a conservative residual multi-scale branch that adds auxiliary logits to the native prediction, and a post-hoc branch-aware calibrator that recombines native and residual evidence at decision time. This design distinguishes missing temporal evidence from underused decision-level evidence without retraining the backbone. Across FI-2010, PTB-XL, UCI-HAR, MHEALTH, and HARTH, we find that gains are strongly regime-dependent. Residual multi-scale evidence is most useful in noisy or representation-limited settings, especially short-horizon FI-2010 and weaker recurrent backbones, while branch-aware calibration helps when native and auxiliary logits contain complementary evidence not fully exploited by the raw decision rule. Near-saturated settings show limited gains from either intervention. These results suggest that temporal classification should be understood not only as representation learning, but also as the problem of trusting, combining, and calibrating evidence from multiple views.

Arthur Chagas, Arthur Buzelin, Yan Aquino +4

Department of Computer Science (DCC), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)

Post-Hoc Calibration Time Series Classification Classification Inference-Time Intervention

Jun 11, 2026cs.LG

A Stationarity-and-Coupling Criterion for Training-Free Time-Lagged Spectral Embeddings of Multivariate Time Series

We study training-free fixed-length descriptors for multivariate time series and ask not merely whether such a descriptor performs well, but when it can be expected to work at all. Our object of study is

D(τ)

, built from a time-lagged correlation matrix truncated at the Marchenko-Pastur edge so that only signal-bearing eigenvalues survive and classified by cosine similarity to class centroids with zero learned parameters. The central contribution is not the descriptor but a falsifiable applicability criterion for it. Working from a stationary Gaussian VAR(1) model, we argue that

D(τ)

separates two classes when the signals are approximately stationary and the class information lives in their cross-channel temporal coupling rather than in marginal per-channel power. We derive, semi-formally, three consequences: a distinguishability condition, why the static (

τ=0

) covariance collapses to chance, and why a stationary but power-discriminated paradigm defeats the descriptor. The criterion is operational: a two-part pre-flight test -- an augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity check and a power-baseline saturation check -- predicts applicability before any training. We validate both halves on a mixed assortment. On four paradigms that satisfy the criterion (Sleep-EDF, BCI-IV-2a, MIT-BIH, ESC-50) the descriptor is competitive with strong baselines at a fraction of their cost, reaching

88.5\pm4.5\%

under 20-subject leave-one-subject-out on Sleep-EDF on a single CPU thread. On three that violate it -- non-stationary ERPs, and financial-volatility and wearable-stress regimes that are power-discriminated -- it fails exactly as the pre-flight predicts, and these negatives are the more informative half. We are explicit that

D(τ)

is not the most accurate representation; its value is a compact, training-free embedding whose domain of validity is known in advance.

Siddharth Pal, Viktoria Rojkova

Multivariate Time Series Classification Time Series Classification Time Series Representation Learning

Jun 11, 2026q-bio.NC

Deep Sleep Classification via EEG Signal Criticality: A Passive BCI Approach for Sleep-Improvement Neurofeedback

Automated sleep staging is a fundamental application of passive Brain-Computer Interfaces (pBCI), decoding spontaneous neural states to enable closed-loop interventions independent of user intent. This study evaluates criticality features derived from Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) for the specific identification of deep sleep (N3). We analyzed

347,232

EEG epochs from

290

older women using UMAP manifold learning to visualize state transitions. Subsequently, six classifiers were benchmarked via 10-fold cross-validation, using balanced accuracy to determine the optimal "state-sensing" engine for neurofeedback.Naive Bayes achieved the highest mean balanced accuracy (

87.17\% \pm 0.24\%

), significantly outperforming a fully connected deep neural network (FNN:

81.58\%

) and Random Forest (

80.97\%

). Linear models (LDA:

57.21\%

; SVM:

51.01\%

) performed poorly, indicating that DFA-derived criticality features reside on a distinct, non-linear manifold. Probabilistic decoding of EEG criticality provides a high-accuracy sensing mechanism for pBCIs. This robust classification pipeline supports the development of state-dependent neurofeedback, such as targeted auditory stimulation, to enhance cognitive recovery.

Stanisław Narębski, Tomasz Komendziński, Tomasz M. Rutkowski

Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toru´n, Poland · Araya Inc., Tokyo, Japan · The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Sleep Stage Classification Brain-Computer Interfaces Time Series Classification EEG Decoding

Jun 10, 2026cs.LG

Using Explainability as a Training-Time Reliability Signal for Efficient ECG Classification

Training deep neural networks for clinical time-series analysis is computationally demanding, yet many healthcare settings lack the resources required for repeated model development and deployment. This challenge is particularly evident in electrocardiogram classification, where large datasets and long training schedules make efficiency practically important. Progressive Data Dropout reduces training cost by excluding samples from gradient updates once they are learned, but it relies on model confidence and may retain samples that are difficult due to noise or ambiguity rather than useful signal. In this work, we introduce ERTS, an explainability-based reliability training signal for efficient ECG classification. ERTS uses explanation quality during training to distinguish between informative and unreliable uncertainty. Building on progressive data selection, we compute Grad-CAM attention maps for candidate samples and derive a focus score that measures whether model predictions are supported by coherent and localised patterns. Samples with low focus are filtered out, while those with meaningful attention are prioritised for gradient updates. We evaluate ERTS across three ECG datasets and multiple backbone architectures, showing consistent improvements in macro-F1 alongside reduced effective training cost. These results suggest that explanation quality can serve as a practical signal for improving both efficiency and reliability in clinical time-series learning. Code will be released.

Veerendhra Kumar Dangeti, Xiao Gu, Ying Weng +1

School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham, Jubilee Campus, Wollaton Road, Nottingham, NG8 1BB, United Kingdom · Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7DQ, United Kingdom · School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, 315100, China

Time Series Classification Training Data Selection Electrocardiogram Classification Data-Efficient Learning

Jun 8, 2026cs.AI

Next-Token Prediction Learns Generalisable Representations of Sleep Physiology

Foundation models offer a promising route to compress multi-modal physiological signals into compact representations of human health, with broad applications across sleep medicine, cardiology, neurology and other healthcare domains. Existing models have typically been trained with masked-reconstruction or contrastive objectives. However, masked reconstruction may be poorly suited to the stochastic nature of these signals, while contrastive approaches rely on positive-pair definitions despite the semantic invariances of physiological signals being poorly understood. In this work, we show that next-token prediction is a simple and scalable alternative. We develop Hypnos, a multi-modal sleep foundation model trained using eight different sensing modalities (e.g. EEG, ECG, respiratory signals) drawn from over 20,000 overnight polysomnography recordings. We tokenize each modality into streams of discrete tokens using residual vector quantization, then train a large auto-regressive RQ-Transformer to jointly predict the next token across all modalities in parallel. After training, Hypnos can be applied to continuous streams of sensor data from any subset of supported modalities, generating embeddings for downstream tasks. Across a range of benchmarks, Hypnos significantly outperforms existing foundation models. In sleep stage classification, we match the performance of strong supervised baselines on held-out test sets whilst using

100\times

less labelled data. Hypnos even generalises to daytime physiology, surpassing a dedicated ECG foundation model at detecting atrial fibrillation. Our results demonstrate that next-token prediction is a strong self-supervised objective for representation learning from multi-modal physiological signals.

Jonathan F. Carter, Lionel Tarassenko

Institute of Biomedical Engineering University of Oxford

Sleep Stage Classification Time Series Classification Self-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning Multimodal Pretraining Next-Token Prediction Multimodal Foundation Models+2