CDEG: Learning Decision-Critical Evidence for Long-Horizon Diagnostic Agents
Organizations: Zhejiang University Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
Abstract
Unlike static medical question answering, long-horizon diagnosis captures the sequential nature of clinical practice: evidence is progressively acquired, integrated, and evaluated over multiple rounds of interaction before reaching a final diagnosis. However, existing doctor agents often fail when critical evidence is either not acquired or not adequately incorporated into diagnostic reasoning. Recent agentic approaches attempt to address these failures by reusing historical trajectories or distilled memories. But their diagnostic gains remain constrained because such experience may contain noisy or incidental information and is typically reused without validating which evidence actually drives diagnostic decisions. To address this limitation, we introduce CDEG, a graph-based framework that learns reusable decision-critical evidence from historical diagnostic trajectories. CDEG contrasts successful and failed trajectories from the same case to identify candidate evidence, validates their diagnostic impact through controlled counterfactual interventions, and organizes the resulting diagnosis--evidence--action relations into a structured graph. During inference, CDEG tracks the evolving patient evidence state to retrieve relevant diagnostic relations and selectively guide missing evidence acquisition or overlooked evidence reappraisal. Across in-domain and out-of-distribution benchmarks with multiple doctor agent backbones, CDEG consistently improves diagnostic performance, achieving up to an 11.5% accuracy gain over vanilla agents. These results demonstrate that reliable long-horizon diagnosis requires moving beyond trajectory-level experience reuse toward evidence-level learning of the factors that truly shape clinical decisions.
Figures & tables
| Benchmark | Source | Setting | # Cases |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIMIC-IDx | MIMIC-IV | Graph Construction | 573 |
| ID Evaluation | 200 | ||
| AgentClinic | MedQA | OOD Evaluation | 107 |
| Backbone | Method | MIMIC-IDx (ID) | AgentClinic (OOD) | Avg. | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acc. (%) | Sim. | Corr. (%) | Acc. (%) | Sim. | Corr. (%) | Acc. (%) | Sim. | Corr. (%) | ||
| Gemini-3-Flash- Preview | Vanilla Agent | 41.50 | 0.6584 | – | 60.75 | 0.8442 | – | 51.13 | 0.7513 | – |
| + Self-Reflection | 47.00 | 0.6828 | 23.08 | 61.68 | 0.8515 | 21.43 | 54.34 | 0.7672 | 22.26 | |
| + Trajectory RAG | 45.00 | 0.6726 | 22.22 | 60.75 | 0.7904 | 30.95 | 52.88 | 0.7315 | 26.59 | |
| + Flat Experience | 48.50 | 0.6688 | 26.50 | 61.68 | 0.8161 | 35.71 | 55.09 | 0.7425 | 31.11 | |
| + CDEG | 53.00 | 0.6908 | 33.33 | 68.22 | 0.8576 | 45.24 | 60.61 | 0.7742 | 39.29 | |
| Variant | Acc. (%) | Sim. | Corr. (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDEG | 53.00 | 0.6908 | 33.33 |
| Counterfactual Validation for Structured Experience | |||
| Flat Experience | 48.50 | 0.6688 | 26.50 |
| w/o Counterfactual Validation | 43.50 | 0.6481 | 24.79 |
| Different Candidate Evidence Sets | |||
| w/o Missing Evidence | 51.00 | 0.6865 | 25.64 |
| Evidence Sufficiency | # Cases | Errors (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Incomplete | 59 | 50.43 |
| Sufficient | 44 | 37.60 |
| Conflicting | 14 | 11.97 |
| Total | 117 | 100.00 |
Appendix figures & tables3 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Hyperparameter | Value | Description |
| Trajectory Generation and Candidate Evidence Mining | ||
| Trajectories per case ( ) | 4 | Number of independent diagnostic trajectories generated for each MIMIC-IDx graph-construction case using the two construction backbones. |
| Trajectory-pair similarity threshold | 0.70 | Minimum cosine similarity for retaining a failed trajectory and its most similar successful trajectory from the same case. |
| Evidence-normalization temperature | 0 | Temperature used for schema-constrained evidence-atom normalization and UMLS alignment. |
| Counterfactual Validation | ||
| Counterfactual-verifier temperature | 0 | Temperature used for the completion, reappraisal, and blocking tests. |
| Statistic | Count |
|---|---|
| Trajectory generation and pairing | |
| Graph-construction cases | 573 |
| Diagnostic trajectories | 2,292 |
| Cases with and | 461 |
| Candidate evidence before validation | |
| Missing-evidence candidate instances | 971 |
| Candidate Type | Mined | Validated | Retention (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missing-evidence candidates | 971 | 342 | 35.22 |
| Ignored-evidence candidates | 843 | 269 | 31.91 |
| Blocking-evidence candidates | 457 | 81 | 17.72 |
| Total | 2,271 | 692 | 30.47 |
Clinical Decision-Making
Clinical decision-making studies how evidence, patient preferences, risks, and resource constraints can guide diagnosis, treatment, and care.
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