CDEG: Learning Decision-Critical Evidence for Long-Horizon Diagnostic Agents

In this work, we introduce LongMedBench, a real-world EHR-based benchmark for long-horizon clinical decision-making. Prior evaluations of LLM-based medical agents have largely emphasized short-context knowledge QA and tool use. However, real-world medical care is inherently longitudinal, and clinicians must aggregate evidence across repeated visits, tests, and evolving treatments. Therefore, long-horizon interaction is essential for realistic assessment. LongMedBench is constructed via a reproducible pipeline that integrates MIMIC-IV admission records and clinical notes into time-series event streams and long-context memory datasets, enabling long-horizon, multi-session interactions between agents and a clinical environment. It comprises 335 patients, with 19.72 inpatient visits per patient on average and 44.91 medical events per visit. Guided by the long-horizon decision process, we propose an evaluation taxonomy with three suites: fact-based QA, temporal reasoning, and long-horizon decision-making. This taxonomy measures how agents understand and leverage historical patient information over extended horizons. Our experiments show that while recent LLMs can make good use of explicit timestamps, they have challenges in implicit time inference; The RAG and agent memory system can improve the performance of information retrieval tasks, but the performance of decision-making tasks is highly dependent on the model's immediate context.

Clinical diagnosis is an active evidence-seeking process in which clinicians acquire evidence, update competing hypotheses, and decide when the available evidence is sufficient for diagnosis. Yet many medical diagnosis systems built around large language models (LLMs) still formulate diagnosis as static case-to-answer prediction, with limited support for evidence acquisition. Agentic LLMs offer a dynamic alternative through tool use and intermediate diagnostic trajectories, but existing systems often under-specify how patient evidence should be exposed, scaffolded, and controlled at runtime. We introduce EviDx, an evidence-aware active diagnosis framework that pairs patient-specific diagnostic environments with a clinical diagnostic scaffold and an observer-guided runtime harness. In EviDx, $\mathcal{E}$-Synthesis constructs interactive environments from raw clinical cases; the scaffold organizes role-specialized agents, evidence tools, and evolving evidence states; and the harness regulates diagnostic termination by tracking uncertainty and evidence coverage. A 3-level evaluation pyramid assesses execution robustness, reasoning dynamics, and diagnostic outcomes. Experiments show that EviDx improves diagnostic performance and process stability while revealing model-dependent capability boundaries.

As large language models empower healthcare, intelligent clinical decision support has developed rapidly. Longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) provide essential temporal evidence for accurate clinical diagnosis and analysis. However, current large language models have critical flaws in longitudinal EHR reasoning. First, lacking fine-grained statistical reasoning, they often hallucinate clinical trends and metrics when quantitative evidence is textually implied, biasing diagnostic inference. Second, non-uniform time series and scarce labels in longitudinal EHR hinder models from capturing long-range temporal dependencies, limiting reliable clinical reasoning. To address the above limitations, this work presents the Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion Agent (COTCAgent), a hierarchical reasoning framework for longitudinal electronic health records. It consists of three core modules. The Temporal-Statistics Adapter (TSA) converts analytical plans into executable code for standardized trend output. The Chain-of-Thought Completion (COTC) layer leverages a symptom-trend-disease knowledge base with weighted scoring to evaluate disease risk, while the bounded completion module acquires structured evidence through standardized inquiries and iterative scoring constraints to ensure rigorous reasoning. By decoupling statistical computation, feature matching, and language generation, the framework eliminates reliance on complex multi-modal inputs and enables efficient longitudinal record analysis with lower computational overhead. Experimental results show that COTCAgent powered by Baichuan-M2 achieves 90.47% Top-1 accuracy on the self-built dataset and 70.41% on HealthBench, outperforming existing medical agents and mainstream large language models. The code is available at https://github.com/FrankDengAI/COTCAgent/.