Basin

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3 papers in the last 28 days · 0.1% of indexed attention

Twelve weeks of publication activity for this topic as it is defined today.

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Period ending 2026-09-07

2 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Basin.

20 papers

Latest in Basin

Sep 1, 2026nlin.CD

Basin Geometry and Reliable Recall of Dynamical Memories in Reservoir Computing

Reliable attractor recall conventionally requires broad basins of attraction. However, in reservoir-computing based associative memory, temporal cues reliably recover dynamical memories despite basins dominated by unpredictable, riddled-like regions. We reveal that memory basins exhibit an octopus-like'' structure: a robust head'' near the attractor and thin, intertwined ``tentacles'' spanning state space. Initial states in tentacular regions yield near-zero uncertainty exponents, making the recalled memory effectively unpredictable at finite precision. Yet, cue-driven generalized synchronization bypasses this unpredictability, driving the system into the robust basin head. This mechanism yields a quantitative relation linking minimum cue duration, synchronization rate, and basin-head radius. Trained recurrent neural networks exhibit similar geometry, suggesting this phenomenon extends beyond reservoir computing.
Ling-Wei Kong, Ying-Cheng Lai
Sep 1, 2026cs.AI

Escaping Redundant Reasoning: Structure-Aware Search for Inference-Time LLMs

Inference-time search with large language models (LLMs) often concentrates on a small set of structurally or semantically similar trajectories, leaving alternatives underexplored---a failure mode we call \textit{reasoning basin collapse}. We introduce BASIN, a training-free, structure-aware selection method that groups reasoning states into basins and penalizes repeated visits to the same strategy, thereby reallocating search across genuinely distinct reasoning paths under a fixed compute budget. Under matched inference budgets, BASIN improves over Tree of Thoughts (ToT) by up to +22+22pp on Game of 24 and +6.7+6.7pp on MuSR. A quality-aware variant, QA-BASIN, further improves robustness by preserving high-quality basins when unconditional diversification over-explores. To explain when basin-aware selection helps, we introduce the redundancy gap ΔΔ, which measures how differently search concentrates for correct versus incorrect predictions: standard ToT often operates near Δ0Δ\approx 0, while BASIN consistently shifts ΔΔ positive. More broadly, BASIN suggests structure-aware selection as a simple and general approach to improving inference-time reasoning. Code can be found at https://github.com/GitHubLuCheng/basin.
Lu Cheng
Aug 24, 2026cs.NE

Basins of Attraction to Multiple Fixed Points in Discrete-time Hysteresis Neural Networks

This paper studies multiple fixed points in a discrete-time hysteresis neural network. The network consists of binary hysteresis neurons characterized by the threshold parameter. Depending on the parameter, the network can have a variety of multiple binary fixed points. Stability of each fixed point is characterized by basin of attraction (BOA): the set of initial points falling into the fixed point. In order to evaluate the distribution of BOA sizes, we present entropy. In order to escape from the curse of dimensionality, we introduce a simple problem: classification of binary data set. In the classification, BOAs correspond to classes. In the problem, we clarify that the threshold parameter can control the entropy, especially, can maximize the entropy: the distribution approaches to uniform. As a concrete example, we consider an item response data set in education. Using two fundamental metrics in the item response theory, the classification results are evaluated.
Yuta Arai, Seigo Nakamura, Ryoga Nakamura +2
Aug 12, 2026cs.CV

Making Every Step Count: Spatio-Temporal Information Allocation for Imaging Inverse Problems

Flow-based generative models have emerged as powerful image priors for training-free inverse problem solving, capturing coherent semantics and fine-grained structure. Despite these strengths, existing flow-based inverse solvers primarily focus on the design of individual updates, largely overlooking spatio-temporal information allocation under a fixed number of function evaluations (NFEs). Temporally, insufficient early exploration can trap the flow trajectory in an incorrect semantic basin, whereas excessive allocation of NFEs to early stages leaves little budget for late-stage refinement. Spatially, data consistency provides direct constraints only within observed regions, whereas the recovery of missing regions relies mainly on the generative prior. To address these two issues, we introduce two complementary and training-free components, i.e., Spectrum-Adaptive Scheduling (SAS) and Measurement-Prioritized Attention (MPA). For temporal allocation, SAS distributes the available NFEs over flow time according to the degradation spectrum and logSNR geometry, thus better balancing semantic exploration and detail refinement. For spatial propagation, MPA exploits data-prior conflicts to guide information toward weakly constrained regions, thereby enhancing semantic and structural fidelity. Extensive experiments on standard image inverse problems, e.g., super-resolution, motion deblurring, and inpainting, demonstrate that the proposed components can be integrated into existing flow-based inverse solvers in a plug-and-play manner without retraining or additional flow-model evaluations, and can also significantly improve the restoration quality of existing solvers.
Yi Cao, Xiangyong Cao, Pei Liu +2
Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

Basin: Efficient and Extensible Numerical Optimization in Rust

Basin is a numerical optimization library for the Rust programming language. Numerical optimization is the task of finding the inputs that minimize a function, and it is a fundamental element across the sciences: fitting a model to data, calibrating a simulation, training a machine learning model, or choosing engineering parameters that minimize cost. Basin gives users a single, consistent way to both state and solve such problems, with a broad catalog of solvers and first-class support for constraints.
Johan Larsson
Jun 30, 2026cs.LG

Revisiting the Volume Hypothesis

Modern deep neural networks often contain far more parameters than needed to fit their training data, yet they achieve impressive generalization. A common explanation for this success is the implicit bias of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). An alternative volume hypothesis posits that, within low training-loss regions, loss-landscape basins leading to strong generalization occupy much larger regions of weight space than basins that generalize poorly, and therefore SGD is simply more likely to land in the former. Recent experimental explorations of this idea present seemingly contradictory results. While in one set of experiments randomly sampling the network weights until achieving zero training error yielded poor generalization, molecular dynamics density estimates supported the volume hypothesis. We observe that these experiments were performed at different dataset size regimes, and explore an intermediate regime using the Replica Exchange Wang-Landau algorithm to estimate the joint density of states over training and test accuracies in binary networks. Across several architectures and datasets, we show that the generalization advantage of gradient learning over random sampling training generally diminishes as the training data size grows, suggesting a resolution of the paradox.
Ari Pakman, Lior Kreimer, Yakir Berchenko
Jun 22, 2026cs.LG

Reconstructing GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks: An Application to South America

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) integrates snow, soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater and is a key indicator of how climate variability and human activity reshape the global water cycle. The GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite missions provide the only direct, globally consistent observations of TWS change, but their record only begins in 2002 which is too short for many climate-scale analyses. We present a deep learning application that reconstructs monthly GRACE-like TWS anomalies (TWSA) back to 1940 by learning the relationship between daily ERA5 meteorological forcing (precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff) and monthly GRACE observations. In contrast to prior reconstruction approaches based on grid-cell-wise regression, CNNs, or LSTMs, we adapt a multi-variate time series graph neural network (MTGNN) architecture, which was originally developed for mobility and traffic forecasting on urban sensor networks to this satellite-geodesy task. Spatial dependencies are encoded in a static, interpretable hybrid adjacency matrix that combines geodesic proximity with lagged correlations of climatic time series, capturing both local hydrological coupling and large-scale teleconnections. The reconstruction achieves a grid-cell Pearson correlation of 0.69, a basin-mean correlation of 0.94, and a near-zero bias, and it reproduces the spatial fingerprints of the 2015/16 El Niño and 2020/21 La Niña events. A systematic comparison with established reconstruction approaches (GTWS-MLrec, RM-REC, GRAiCE) shows that the graph-based model is statistically competitive at basin scale, reaching a correlation within 0.025 of the best baseline while using only roughly half to a tenth of the predictors the other models require and revealing characteristic weaknesses in arid regions in all models. The complete implementation is publicly available at github.com/hcu-cml/MTGNN-TWS-Reconstruction-GRACE
Lukas Arzoumanidis, Lara Johannsen, Klara Middendorf +2
Jun 14, 2026cs.NE

MSC-CMA-ES: Structure-Aware Restarts for CMA-ES via Cyclic Nearest-Better Basin Discovery

CMA-ES is, per run, a local optimizer; multimodal search relies on restart strategies such as IPOP and BIPOP, which draw every restart uniformly and reuse no information from previous evaluations. Multi-Start Clustering CMA-ES (MSC-CMA-ES) makes restarts structure-aware: in alternating cycles, a Sobol pre-sample is partitioned into approximate basins of attraction by nearest-better clustering, restarts are seeded basin by basin with locally scaled step sizes and population sizes, redundant basin visits are detected and excluded, and the remaining budget is spent on an unbounded local refinement of the best-so-far solution. We evaluate the method on four CEC suites (CEC2014, CEC2017, CEC2020, CEC2022) at their official budgets, across ten (suite, dimension) cells with dimensions 5-30, 51 runs per function, against BIPOP-CMA-ES and five differential-evolution algorithms (ARRDE, jSO, j2020, NL-SHADE-RSP, LSRTDE). Read per function class, MSC-CMA-ES leads on one class, is mixed on a second, and trails on the third. On composition functions, MSC-CMA-ES attains the best value on all four aggregate measures, with 2.7x the fixed-budget target coverage of BIPOP-CMA-ES - the highest composition coverage of any algorithm evaluated. On basic functions, it achieves the best (lowest) median error but exhibits a lower deep-target coverage - the measured price of spending budget on landscape discovery. On hybrid functions both CMA variants trail the leading DE algorithms; the deficit belongs to the CMA family, not to the restart mechanism. All results and scripts are publicly available.
Dimitar Nedanovski, Svetoslav Nenov, Dimitar Pilev
Jun 7, 2026cs.CL

Continuous Language Diffusion as a Decoder-Interface Problem

Gaussian-corrupted sentence embeddings have no direct linguistic interpretation, yet continuous diffusion language models can generate fluent text from them. We study this puzzle through Embedded Language Flows (ELF) and identify a decoder-basin mechanism: our evidence suggests that denoising becomes reliable when trajectories reach regions where the native decoder can read stable tokens. We introduce a diagnostic protocol for denoisability, semantic recoverability, order sensitivity, decoder compatibility, and trajectory reliability. It exposes failures hidden by scalar metrics: low mean-squared error can discard linguistic content, low perplexity can reflect low-entropy collapse, and clean latent reconstruction can coexist with a narrow decoder basin. A decoder-margin bound explains why token recovery depends on margin and local decoder sensitivity, not latent error alone. Auditing public ELF checkpoints reveals an interface phase diagram: early predictions are weakly readable, mid-trajectory disagreement marks a competition region, and late predictions enter a high-margin decoder basin. Once inside, token realization is surprisingly simple on generated ELF states: frozen T5 (Text-to-Text Transfer Transformer) token-embedding lookup recovers 9393--96%96\% of native decoder decisions, and a single linear readout reaches 97.9%97.9\% agreement at 32k samples, leaving an 1.1\approx1.1--1.21.2 perplexity gap in a structured residual tail. Under conservative held-out gates, a margin rule exits roughly 1717--28%28\% earlier in denoising steps under an explicit diagnostic monitor. Boundary checks on LangFlow, BitstreamDiffusion, and the Continuous Latent Diffusion Language Model (Cola-DLM) show that the same interface questions remain meaningful when the state object and decoder change. Continuous and latent diffusion language models should therefore be evaluated as representation-decoder systems.
Zhicheng Du, Lan Ma
Jun 1, 2026cs.AI

Evaluating Transformer and LSTM Frameworks for Prediction in Ungauged Basins

Watershed networks exhibit convergent topologies in which multiple tributaries merge into downstream channels,integrating diverse upstream hydrological processes. In ungauged basins, the absence of direct observations increases uncertainty and limits the ability to anticipate extreme events. This study evaluates whether an encoder-only Transformer provides an advantage over an LSTM for upstream streamflow inference under limited hydrologic information, using retrospective simulations from the NOAA National Water Model (NWM). Across both upstream-only and combined configurations, the LSTM showed stronger overall performance than the Transformer model across the two configurations. Incorporating downstream information further boosted performance for all models, increasing median NNSE by more than 60%. Rather than treating this as a leaderboard-style comparison, we interpret the experiments as a test of architectural inductive bias for hydrologic sequence inference. The results indicate that recurrent memory remains better aligned with this upstream reconstruction task than an encoder-only Transformer, while downstream hydrologic context provides a strong auxiliary constraint that substantially improves prediction skill across architectures
Taye Akinrele, James Halgren, Noorbakhsh Amiri Golilarz +2
May 28, 2026cs.LG

Convex Basins in Single-Index Model Loss Landscapes: Applications to Robust Recovery under Strong Adversarial Corruption

We study the problem of robustly learning Gaussian Single Index Models (SIMs) in the presence of heavy-tailed noise and a constant fraction of adversarially corrupted covariates and responses. Prior work on robust recovery has considered settings such as linear regression (Pensia et al., JASA 2024), strictly monotonic link functions (Awasthi et al., NeurIPS 2022), and phase retrieval (Buna and Rebeschini, AISTATS 2025). However, these techniques do not extend to generic asymmetric non-monotonic link functions such as \textsc{GeLU} and \textsc{Swish}, which arise naturally as scalar primitives in modern gated neural architectures. We close this gap by giving the first robust recovery algorithm with near-linear sample and time complexity for generic non-monotonic link functions, thereby establishing the first robust recovery guarantees for a broad family of nonlinear SIMs for which \textit{no guarantees were previously known}. Our central contribution is a new structural understanding of the Gaussian squared-loss landscape under adversarial contamination. Crucially, we prove that for a broad class of nonlinear non-monotonic SIMs, a dimension-independent, constant-radius convex basin exists around the ground truth and is efficiently reachable via robust spectral initialization even under adversarial contamination. Prior works fail to establish both guarantees simultaneously, thereby either breaking down under adversarial contamination or failing to handle generic non-monotonic link functions. Together, these structural insights yield a principled warm start for robust gradient descent that provably converges to a final estimation error of O(σε)O(σ\sqrtε) in O~(nd)\tilde{O}(nd) time with O~(d)\tilde{O}(d) samples, where εε is the contamination fraction.
Santanu Das, Sagnik Chatterjee, Jatin Batra
May 22, 2026stat.ML

Detecting Metastable Basins in High Dimensions via Marginal Trajectory Distribution Discrimination

We study the problem of identifying dynamically distinct basins of attraction in high dimensional time-homogeneous Markov processes using only trajectory sampling. This problem is fundamental in the analysis of metastable dynamical systems, where the process rapidly mixes within basins while transitions between basins occur rarely on the timescale of interest, or even when the state space is reducible. Existing approaches typically rely on spatial discretization or spectral analysis of estimated transition operators, which can become unreliable in high dimensional settings or when the underlying basin geometry is highly nonlinear. We propose a discriminative approach to basin identification based on marginal trajectory distribution comparison. We prove a simple risk separation result: if two initial states belong to the same basin, the Bayes-optimal classifier distinguishing their marginal trajectory distributions achieves risk close to 1/2, whereas if they lie in distinct basins, the optimal risk is close to zero. This observation reduces basin detection to a two-sample discrimination problem between marginal trajectory distributions. Motivated by this principle, we develop a neural algorithm that receives a set of candidate basin representatives and iteratively merges them by estimating classification risk with a neural network that approximates the Bayes classifier. We evaluate the method on various metastable systems. These include synthetic systems constructed by embedding low-dimensional dynamics into high dimensional noisy ambient spaces. In these settings, standard spectral and clustering-based methods often fail, while our approach accurately recovers the underlying basin structure. These results display a shortcoming of existing methods and highlight trajectory discrimination as an effective tool for identifying dynamical basins in high dimensional stochastic systems.
Taj Jones-McCormick
May 20, 2026cs.LG

Same Target, Different Basins: Hard vs. Soft Labels for Annotator Distributions

When annotators disagree, that disagreement can reflect epistemic uncertainty rather than simple label noise. We study hard-label delivery as an alternative to the usual choices of collapsing votes to a single label or training directly on the empirical soft-label distribution. We focus on two primary hard-label methods: multipass, which cycles through observed votes while keeping the dataset size fixed, and stochastic label sampling (SLS), which samples one label per example at the start of each epoch. On CIFAR-10H, we find that when only a small number of annotations per example is available, hard-label delivery improves over soft-label training, with larger improvements where the sparse empirical target is farther from the full annotator distribution. When full annotator distributions are available, both hard-label methods match soft-label training. We use deterministic control as an ablation of multipass and shuffled SLS as a control that breaks the example-to-distribution match. We also show that SLS and soft-label cross-entropy optimize the same expected objective. Hard-label delivery also converges to flatter basins, with supporting descriptive evidence from OOD detection on SVHN and CIFAR-100. Overall, these results suggest that multipass is a strong practical default when raw vote counts are available, while SLS offers a lightweight alternative that remains competitive when only a few votes per example are available and matches soft-label training when full annotator distributions are available.
Mirerfan Gheibi, Gashin Ghazizadeh
May 18, 2026cs.LG

Proximal basin hopping: global optimization with guarantees

Global optimization is a challenging problem, with plenty of algorithms displaying empirical success, but scarce theoretical backing. In this work, we propose a new theoretical framework called Proximal Basin Hopping (PBH), carefully tailored to combine proximal optimization and local minimization. We use it to construct a practical algorithm that converges to the global minimizer with high probability, when using a finite amount of samples. Proximal Basin Hopping outperforms well known algorithms with theoretical backing on standard synthetic hard functions, and real problems such as fitting scaling laws for deep learning. Furthermore, the higher the dimension, the better the performance gap.
Guillaume Lauga, Cesare Molinari, Samuel Vaiter
May 18, 2026cs.NE

Mapping the Fitness Landscape: A Structure-Guided Approach to Multi-Modal Optimization

Multimodal optimization requires finding many optima rather than merely keeping a diverse population. Yet most niching-based evolutionary algorithms rely on distances or density estimators without explicitly recovering the underlying peak--basin organization in the decision space, which can lead to pseudo-multimodality: many distinct individuals ultimately collapse into only a few basins. We introduce Chaotic Landscape-Decoding Evolution (CLDE), a decision-space-centric framework that turns multimodal search into a closed loop of decode--value--allocate--refine. CLDE injects controlled global exploration via a logistic chaotic map with a decaying step size, then builds a kk-nearest-neighbor graph on a decoding canvas and performs persistence-guided basin growing that merges peaks only when they are not separated by deep valleys. An adaptive persistence threshold continuously tunes the decoding resolution online to avoid over-fragmentation and over-merging. Guided by the decoded structure, CLDE carries out basin-wise selection and refinement to improve solution quality while preserving basin coverage. We instantiate CLDE as CLDE-S and CLDE-M for single- and multi-objective multimodal optimization. Experiments on 20 CEC2013 functions show that CLDE-S achieves strong peak ratio under the same evaluation budget, while on DTLZ and MMMOP suites CLDE-M attains competitive IGD/IGDx, with pronounced gains on strongly multimodal problems.
Meng Xiang, Pei Yan
May 18, 2026cs.LG

Equilibrium Selection in Multi-Agent Policy Gradients via Opponent-Aware Basin Entry

Multi-agent policy-gradient methods have been shown to converge locally near stable Nash equilibria. Local convergence, however, does not determine which equilibrium is reached. We study this question through basin-entry probability with respect to a target set of equilibria selected by an external criterion, such as payoff dominance. For finite-unroll Meta-MAPG, we show that the update decomposes into ordinary policy gradient plus own-learning and peer-learning corrections, with controlled sampling noise and finite-unroll bias. We identify the peer-learning correction as the main equilibrium-selection mechanism: under a local alignment condition, the probability of entering the certified attraction region of the target stable-Nash set increases, relative to ordinary policy gradient. Because persistent correction may shift zero-update points of the original game, annealing the correction after entering the basin recovers ordinary policy-gradient dynamics and inherits local stable-Nash convergence guarantees. Experiments in Stag Hunt, iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, and preliminary neural-policy coordination environments support this basin-entry view, showing increased entry into cooperative basins under peer-aware updates.
Yevhen Shcherbinin, Arina Redina, Maxim Kalpin +1
May 9, 2026cs.NE

Drain-Vortex Optimization: A Population-Based Metaheuristic Inspired by Multi-Drain Free-Vortex Flow

This paper proposes Drain-Vortex Optimization (DVO), a population-based metaheuristic for continuous optimization. DVO models each candidate solution as a particle moving in a multi-drain vortex field. Its update rule decomposes motion into radial attraction toward selected drain centres and tangential rotation governed by a regularized free-vortex law. A three-phase mechanism switches between far-field exploration, spiral inward motion, and localized core exploitation according to the normalized distance to the assigned drain. The method also uses adaptive spiral exploitation, population-level vortex basin assignment, and optional stochastic basin switching to support structured diversity. DVO is evaluated against PSO, GWO, WOA, SCA, AOA, EO, and SVOA using a calibration--validation protocol. CEC 2022 is used only to select the final DVO configuration, while CEC 2017, classical functions, and five constrained engineering design problems are used for out-of-sample validation. On CEC 2017, DVO achieves the best mean log10\log_{10} error on 34 of 58 cases and the best Friedman average rank (1.67), and is significantly better than every baseline under Holm-corrected Wilcoxon tests. On CEC 2022, DVO obtains the best Friedman rank (2.13) and is significantly better than five of the seven baselines; the differences against PSO and SVOA are not significant. DVO is less competitive on simple scalable classical functions and on small constrained engineering designs, which clarifies its operating regime. The algorithm is implemented in a vectorized GPU form that executes independent runs in parallel.
Mohsen Omidi, Brian Vaughan
May 7, 2026cs.AI

Attractor Geometry of Transformer Memory: From Conflict Arbitration to Confident Hallucination

Language models draw on two knowledge sources: facts baked into weights (parametric memory, PM) and information in context (working memory, WM). We study two mechanistically distinct failure modes--conflict, when PM and WM disagree and interfere; and hallucination, when the queried fact was never learned. Both produce confident output regardless, making output-based monitoring blind by design. We show both failures share a unified geometric account. In the hidden-state space of autoregressive generation, learned facts form attractor basins. Conflict is basin competition: WM disrupts convergence to the correct basin without raising output entropy. Hallucination is basin absence: the hidden state drifts freely when no memorized basin exists. The frozen LM head, designed for next-token prediction, cannot distinguish these cases and fires confidently either way. We verify this account in a controlled synthetic task-entity identifiers mapped to unique codes with PM installed via LoRA adapters--where ground truth is exact and component roles can be causally isolated through targeted adapter placement. Geometric margin--the hidden state's distance to the nearest memorized basin--reads this geometry directly and separates correct recall from hallucination far more cleanly than output entropy, with zero false refusals where entropy-based detection cannot avoid rejecting the vast majority of correct outputs. The separation holds on natural-language factual queries from the pretrained model with no adaptation, confirming attractor geometry is structural rather than a fine-tuning artifact. The fraction of confident hallucinations follows a scaling law C=exp(c/Δˉ)C = \exp(-c/\barΔ), growing with scale even as overall error rates fall. Hidden states reliably encode epistemic state; the frozen output head systematically erases it--and this erasure worsens with scale.
Qiyao Liang, Risto Miikkulainen, Ila Fiete
Feb 10, 2026cs.NE

ImprovEvolve: Basin-Hopping Meets LLM-Guided Evolutionary Search

LLM-guided evolutionary computation, most notably AlphaEvolve, has been remarkably successful in discovering novel mathematical constructions by solving challenging optimization problems. The standard approach is to evolve a monolithic program that directly outputs a candidate solution. We present ImprovEvolve, an algorithmic alternative that drastically reduces cognitive load on the LLM. Instead of prompting the model for an end-to-end optimizer, we evolve a program with three specialized operators of initialization, local improvement, and perturbation. We then approach the optimum by iteratively applying local improvements and intensity-scheduled perturbations, effectively driving a basin-hopping search with LLM-evolved subroutines. For hexagon in hexagon packing, ImprovEvolve discovers new state-of-the-art packings of 11, 12, 15, and 16 hexagons, and additionally for 14, 17, and 23 hexagons after minimal expert tuning of the generated code. For the second autocorrelation inequality, the evolved and human-scaled program pushes the lower bound from 0.96102 to 0.96258. For spherical codes, the ImprovEvolve program lowers the best-known maximum cosine for the majority of 90 randomly chosen diverse state-of-the-art spherical codes, achieving relative improvements of up to 2.4%.
Alexey Kravatskiy, Valentin Khrulkov, Ivan Oseledets
Jan 4, 2026cs.LG

Utilizing Earth Foundation Models to Enhance the Simulation Performance of Hydrological Models with AlphaEarth Embeddings

Predicting river flow in places without streamflow records is challenging because basins respond differently to climate, terrain, vegetation, and soils. Traditional basin attributes describe some of these differences, but they cannot fully represent the complexity of natural environments. This study examines whether AlphaEarth Foundation embeddings, which are learned from large collections of satellite images rather than designed by experts, offer a more informative way to describe basin characteristics. These embeddings summarize patterns in vegetation, land surface properties, and long-term environmental dynamics. We find that models using them achieve higher accuracy when predicting flows in basins not used for training, suggesting that they capture key physical differences more effectively than traditional attributes. We further investigate how selecting appropriate donor basins influences prediction in ungauged regions. Similarity based on the embeddings helps identify basins with comparable environmental and hydrological behavior, improving performance, whereas adding many dissimilar basins can reduce accuracy. The results show that satellite-informed environmental representations can strengthen hydrological forecasting and support the development of models that adapt more easily to different landscapes.
Pengfei Qu, Wenyu Ouyang, Chi Zhang +6