Cancer Survival Prediction

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3 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 51

Jun 8, 2026cs.CV

GD-MIL: Grade-Disentangled Multiple Instance Learning for Multimodal Biochemical Recurrence Prediction in Prostate Cancer

Biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy is a critical endpoint in prostate cancer, yet risk stratification relies almost entirely on variables dominated by Gleason grade. Whether H&E whole slide images (WSIs) carry prognostic signal beyond grade, and whether multiple instance learning (MIL) can recover it, remains unsettled. A key obstacle is that many pipelines select model checkpoints on the evaluation fold, artificially inflating concordance. We construct a rigorous benchmark on TCGA-PRAD (487 patients, 101 BCR events) using strict out-of-fold scoring over five-fold cross-validation repeated across five seeds. The choice of MIL aggregator (ABMIL, CLAM, TransMIL, PatchGCN) has little effect (C-index 0.61-0.64 with UNI2-h), while the feature extractor is the dominant factor (ResNet50 0.566 versus pathology foundation models up to 0.639). A clinical Cox model on grade, stage, and age reaches 0.687; no imaging-only model significantly outperforms it (p > 0.10). We introduce Grade-Disentangled MIL (GD-MIL), a gated-attention MIL encoder trained with a gradient-reversal grade adversary that encourages the slide representation to be invariant to Gleason grade before late fusion with clinical variables. GD-MIL achieves C-index 0.704, significantly outperforming both the clinical baseline (delta-c = +0.029, p = 0.0005) and the best imaging-only model (delta-c = +0.062, p = 0.039), suggesting H&E morphology contains prognostic information complementary to grade. A median risk split yields log-rank p < 0.0001 separation in BCR-free survival (~20% vs ~70% at five years).

Dasari Naga Raju

Adversarial Representation Learning Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Clinical Outcome Prediction Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis+2

Jun 5, 2026cs.LG

TRAPS: Therapeutic Response Analysis via Pathway-informed Stratification

Cancer treatment planning requires decisions across multiple clinical dimensions at once. Clinicians must determine whether a patient should receive targeted molecular therapy, radiation therapy, and whether they are likely to survive beyond six months. Existing pathway-informed deep learning models have been developed and tested in isolation, making fair comparison across architectures impossible. We present the first unified benchmark for pathway-guided therapy response modeling, evaluating three biologically informed architectures, BINN, GraphPath, and PATH, across five cancer cohorts drawn from The Cancer Genome Atlas, representing 2,622 patients encoded using Reactome pathway activity scores. Each model is trained jointly on all three clinical outcomes under identical data and evaluation conditions, the first study to treat pathway-structured deep learning as a combined therapy and survival prediction problem. Our results show that no single architecture wins across all tasks: PATH performs best for targeted molecular therapy prediction overall, BINN is most reliable for survival prediction, and no model produces useful predictions for radiation therapy, as the key drivers of that decision are clinical variables not captured in gene expression data. Most strikingly, GraphPath achieves an AUROC of 0.92 on prostate targeted molecular therapy prediction, the highest score in the entire benchmark, demonstrating that lateral co-regulation structure produces exceptional discriminative power when matched to a cohort with a narrow targetable driver programme, even under conditions of extreme class imbalance at only 11% positive prevalence.

Sujoy Banik, Sayantan Chakraborty, Boishakhi Das Toma +4

Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology Bangladesh · University of Dhaka Bangladesh · American International University of Bangladesh Bangladesh +2

Cancer Genomics Cancer Survival Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction Oncology

Jun 5, 2026cs.CV

Multi-FRuGaL: Multimodal Flexible Redundancy-aware Decomposed Gated Learning for Cancer Diagnosis and Prognosis

Modern medicine relies on heterogeneous data sources spanning radiology, pathology, text reports, and structured clinical information. However, real-world patient data are frequently incomplete, with missing or sparsely acquired modalities, limiting the effectiveness of standard multimodal fusion approaches. To this end, we propose the Multimodal Flexible Redundancy-aware decomposed GAted Learning (Multi-FRuGaL) framework, a decomposition-aware, adaptive gated intermediate-fusion framework that performs modality-level representation learning under missing data. Multi-FRuGaL integrates per-modality encoders with a signal decomposition layer, an input-conditioned gating network, and an information-aware fusion objective to separate redundant from modality-specific complementary signals, selectively upweighting informative modalities and suppressing redundant or noisy inputs, and remaining well-defined even when multiple modalities are absent. We evaluate Multi-FRuGaL on two multimodal head and neck cancer cohorts: the HANCOCK challenge dataset (N = 763) comprising five modalities and two prognostic endpoints (5-year survival and 2-year recurrence), and the HECKTOR challenge dataset (N = 588) comprising three modalities for human papillomavirus (HPV) status classification. Multi-FRuGaL consistently achieves higher mean performance than the evaluated baselines across multiple tasks, improving AUC from 0.601 to 0.8496 for survival, from 0.672 to 0.8102 for recurrence, and achieving 0.975 AUC for HPV prediction on HECKTOR. For survival analysis, it further achieves a concordance index of 0.6814 for overall survival, 0.7421 for recurrence-free survival, and 0.7143 for progression-free survival on HANCOCK, and 0.7203 for recurrence-free survival on HECKTOR. Qualitative analyses further show that Multi-FRuGaL learns discriminative and robust multimodal representations, even under severe missing-modality conditions.

Sanket Kachole, Siddhesh Thakur, Shubham Innani +4

Division of Computational Pathology, Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA · IU Melvin and Bren Simon Comprehensive Cancer Center, Indianapolis, IN, USA · Departments of Biostatistics and Health Data Science; Radiology and Imaging Sciences; Neurological Surgery; Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA +1

Missing-Modality Learning Cancer Survival Prediction Clinical Prediction Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis Multimodal Fusion

Jun 3, 2026cs.SI

Modeling and Interpreting Teamwork Dynamics in Cancer Care Outcome Prediction

Cancer care requires a longitudinal approach in which treatments are planned and delivered over time according to the needs of each individual patient. While prior research has thoroughly explored how clinical and demographic factors, such as comorbidities and age, inform treatment planning, far less attention has been devoted to the delivery phase of care. Yet planning and delivery are both team-based processes that depend on coordinated efforts among multiple healthcare professionals (HCPs). As such, the human factors embedded in these collaborative practices are crucial to optimizing patient outcomes. Despite this importance, the existing literature on human factors in cancer care is limited, and very few studies have investigated how collaboration within care teams evolves over the course of treatment. To fill this gap, this work examine how HCPs' collaboration, captured through electronic health record (EHR) systems, affects cancer patient outcomes, with particular emphasis on teamwork dynamics. We represent EHR-mediated HCP interactions as networks and apply machine learning methods to identify predictive signals of patient survival embedded in these collaborative structures. We further interpret model predictions by pinpointing network characteristics and dynamic patterns associated with particular outcomes. We evaluate our model through robustness analyses to ensure that the findings are stable and not driven by stochastic variation in training. Additionally, our insights align with hypotheses proposed in the medical literature, and our results provide the empirical, data-driven evidence supporting these claims. Overall, our work contributes a practical workflow for leveraging digital traces of collaboration to evaluate and strengthen longitudinal team-based healthcare, offering actionable insights to guide data-informed interventions in healthcare delivery.

Yuhua Huang, Hsiao-Ying Lu, Kwan-Liu Ma

University of California, Davis Davis, California, USA

Cancer Survival Prediction Healthcare Longitudinal EHR Modeling

May 29, 2026cs.NE

Developing a novel Comorbidities Index for predicting 10-year mortality in Prostate Cancer patients: A computational data-driven approach

The Charlson Comorbidities Index (CCI) is a weighted additive index widely used to estimate ten-year mortality risk, but its original weights may not reflect contemporary prognoses. This limitation is critical in Prostate Cancer (PCa), where radical treatment is recommended only for patients with a life expectancy of at least ten years. For candidates eligible for Radical Prostatectomy (RP), accurate estimation of ten-year other-cause mortality is essential to balance oncological benefit against competing risks and avoid overtreatment. We propose a data-driven framework to derive a comorbidity index tailored to PCa patients considered for RP. Using a retrospective single-institution cohort, we apply Population-Based Bio-Inspired Algorithms (PBBIAs) to recalibrate comorbidity weights and evolve alternative symbolic formulations optimized for ten-year survival discrimination. We compared six optimization strategies, including symbolic regression approaches based on Genetic Programming (GP), population-based metaheuristics, clinically validated baselines, and survival prediction models. Results show that GA, FST-PSO, and SLIM outperform both the original CCI and the PCCI, particularly when PCa-specific variables are included, improving the Concordance Index by up to 0.1. GPLearn yields compact and interpretable models with competitive performance. Overall, the proposed approach provides an updated and interpretable tool to improve patient selection for RP.

Davide Farinati, Francesco Barletta, Paolo Zaurito +6

Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy Comprehensive Cancer Center/Unit of Urology; URI; IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy · School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK · Department of Urology, Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK

Cancer Survival Prediction Metaheuristic Optimization Oncology Mortality Prediction

May 25, 2026cs.CV

BioFact-MoE: Biologically Factorized Mixture of Experts for Vision-Language Prognostic Modeling in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is biologically heterogeneous, shaped by the interplay between hepatic functional reserve and tumor-related oncologic factors; thus, similar survival outcomes may reflect fundamentally different underlying biological processes. Prognostic modeling in HCC is informed by rich multimodal information from multiparametric MRI and radiology reports from routine clinical practice. Existing prognostic vision-language models (VLMs) learn a single entangled latent representation that blends hepatic and tumor-related factors, limiting both accuracy and biological interpretability. We present BioFact-MoE, a biologically factorized Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework that explicitly decomposes liver and tumor factors via biologically supervised experts within a residual MoE survival architecture. On a HCC cohort of N=588 patients (pretrained on 4,582 3D MRI image-report pairs), BioFact-MoE consistently improves survival prediction over all baselines across time horizons, achieving 12-, 18-, and 24-month AUCs of 75.33%, 75.85%, and 73.96%. Beyond scalar risk prediction, gated expert weights enable phenotype-aware risk stratification. Pathway-informed gating uncovers clinically meaningful treatment-associated survival heterogeneity. In held-out validation, hepatic and tumor embeddings show selective associations with liver function and tumor burden markers, respectively (p<0.05), without supervision. The code is available at https://github.com/jy-639/BioFact-MoE.

Junlin Yang, Tian Yu, Nicha C. Dvornek +6

Department of Radiology & Biomedical Imaging, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA · Department of Electrical Engineering, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06510, USA +1

Radiology VLMs Cancer Survival Prediction Medical VLMs Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis Mixture-of-Experts Models

May 24, 2026stat.AP

Multimodality Stacking with Blockwise missing values and application to the PIONeeR biomarkers study for prediction of resistance to immunotherapy

Integrating multimodal datasets in clinical oncology is frequently hindered by high dimensionality and blockwise missingness, where entire data sources are unavailable for specific patient subsets. Standard survival models often struggle with these gaps, leading to biased results or patient exclusion. We introduce Multimodality Stacking with Blockwise missing values (MSB), a late-fusion framework for survival analysis that independently models modality-specific features before aggregating predictions via a cross-validated stacking meta-learner. MSB was validated on the PIONeeR study (n=443 patients, 378 biomarkers across eight heterogeneous sources) to predict progression-free survival in advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. MSB yielded higher predictive performance (C-index) than baseline algorithms. Improvements varied by baseline strength: linear models showed a 15.9% increase (p<0.001 for the Wilcoxon signed-rank test), random survival forests gained 5.4% (p=0.002), and gradient boosting methods improved by 2.1% (p=0.030). Beyond discrimination, MSB reduced the generalization gap (train-test difference in 5 folds cross-validation repeated 3 times: 0.055 vs 0.380 for linear models). Permutation importance analysis identified routine laboratory markers, clinical features, and PD-L1 expression as primary predictive drivers. Missing block indicators showed negligible importance, suggesting the model learned from biomarker values rather than data availability patterns. MSB provides a statistically validated framework for multimodal survival prediction with blockwise missingness. By enabling systematic biomarker evaluation without requiring complete data, MSB offers a practical tool for predictive modeling in biomedical research, pending external validation. Implementation is available at https://github.com/MohamedBoussena/MSB under Inria license.

Mohamed Boussena, Florence Monville, Jacques Fieschi-Meric +8

Inria – Inserm team COMPO, COMPutational pharmacology and clinical Oncology, Centre Inria Sophia Antipolis - M´editerran´ee, Centre de Recherches en Canc´erologie de Marseille, Inserm U1068, CNRS UMR7258, Institut Paoli-Calmettes, Pharmacy faculty, Aix-Marseille University · Veracyte SAS, Marseille, France · Assistance Publique-Hˆopitaux de Marseille (APHM), Marseille, France +4

Missing-Modality Learning Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Clinical Outcome Prediction Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis+1

May 23, 2026cs.LG

Graph Mamba Survival Analysis Based on Topology-Aware ordering

In computational pathology, Whole Slide Images (WSIs) survival analysis is crucial for patient prognosis assessment, but it faces multiple technical challenges. Although the Transformer captures long-range dependencies through its self-attention mechanism, its

O(N^2)

time complexity causes a severe computational bottleneck in large-scale WSIs graph structures. The Mamba model breaks through the Transformer's computational bottleneck with linear complexity. But, owing to Mamba's high sensitivity to the order of input data, traditional node sorting methods in Graph Mamba, such as those based on node degree or subgraph size, fail to adequately account for the topological connectivity of graph data. This inadequacy consequently restricts the performance of Mamba's sequential modeling. Moreover, its unidirectional architecture cannot leverage the bidirectional spatial structure of images. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel Graph Mamba survival analysis framework based on topology-aware ordering (TopoMamSurv) to adapt to the sequential sensitivity of Mamba. Our visualization experiments further confirmed that the nodes extracted through the topology-aware ordering (TAO) strategy indeed exhibit higher similarity. Furthermore, we designed a bidirectional Mamba module and integrated a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to achieve bidirectional spatial context modeling of images, forming a hierarchical feature learning architecture for "local aggregation - global capture." This framework effectively reconciles the contradiction between long-range dependency modeling, computational efficiency, and spatial structure utilization in WSIs analysis through its systematic design of TAO, bidirectional semantic modeling, and hierarchical feature fusion. This framework has been validated for its comprehensive performance advantage on five TCGA datasets.

Yuanfang Chen, Peiqiang Yan, Yuntao Shou +2

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, West China Science and Technology Innovation Harbor, Xi’an, 710049, Shaanxi Province, China · School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, West China Science and Technology Innovation Harbor, Xi’an, 710049, Shaanxi Province, China

Cancer Survival Prediction Whole-Slide Image Analysis

May 21, 2026cs.LG

FederatedRSF : Federated Random Survival Forests for Partially Overlapping Medical Data

Multi-center survival prediction can improve robustness and generalizability, yet privacy regulations and institutional governance often prevent pooling patient-level clinical and genomic data across institutions. In practice, deployment is further complicated by feature-space heterogeneity, in which sites collect different covariates or use different sequencing panels, resulting in only partially overlapping feature sets. We present FederatedRSF, a Python package that implements federated random survival forests, aggregating locally trained survival trees and redistributing only feature-compatible trees to each site, enabling inference with partial overlap without sharing raw data. We evaluate FederatedRSF on the GBSG2 breast cancer cohort distributed with the scikit-survival package, simulating feature heterogeneity across clients by withholding subsets of features, and assessing discrimination using Harrell's concordance index (C-Index) under repeated cross-validation and site-splits. The results demonstrated that the federated model can achieve performance comparable to that of the centralized training setting.

Maryam Moradpour, Jonas Harriehausen, Amirreza Aleyasin +3

Institute for Predictive Deep Learning in Medicine and Healthcare, Justus Liebig University Gießen, Germany · Hessian Center for Artificial Intelligence (hessian.AI), Darmstadt, Germany · Department of Medical Informatics, University Medical Center Göttingen, Germany +1

Federated Learning Aggregation Cancer Survival Prediction Healthcare Survival Analysis Privacy-Preserving ML Federated Learning+1

May 20, 2026cs.CV

ProtoPathway: Biologically Structured Prototype-Pathway Fusion for Multimodal Cancer Survival Prediction

We introduce ProtoPathway, an interpretable-by-design multimodal framework for cancer survival prediction that unifies whole slide imaging and transcriptomics through encoders producing biologically grounded representations on both sides of the fusion. On the histopathology side,

K

learnable morphological prototypes, trained end-to-end with the survival objective, serve as the slide representation itself: patches flow into prototype tokens via soft assignment, compressing variable-length patch sets into fixed task-adaptive tokens. On the genomic side, a bipartite graph neural network encodes gene expression within the Reactome pathway hierarchy, producing pathway embeddings that reflect both constituent genes and their broader biological context through bidirectional message passing over a shared gene--pathway graph. Cross-modal attention then operates over a compact prototype

\times

pathway matrix in which prototypes query pathways, modeling the biological direction in which molecular programs give rise to tissue morphology. Because both axes carry stable task-learned identity, the attention matrix is itself an interpretability output, yielding native inference-time attribution across the full biological hierarchy, from genes through pathways and prototypes to spatial tissue maps. We evaluate on five TCGA cancer cohorts, demonstrating competitive or superior survival prediction with substantially improved biological interpretability and reduced computational cost, with interpretability claims validated through fold-stratified rank-based population-level analysis. Our source code, model weights, and Reactome pathways, together with a unified codebase reimplementing all multimodal survival baselines under identical preprocessing and evaluation, are available at: https://github.com/AmayaGS/ProtoPathway.

Amaya Gallagher-Syed, Costantino Pitzalis, Myles J. Lewis +2

Queen Mary University of London

Cancer Survival Prediction Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis Explainable Medical Image Analysis Multimodal Fusion Whole-Slide Image Analysis

May 20, 2026cs.CV

HDMoE: A Hierarchical Decoupling-Fusion Mixture-of-Experts Framework for Multimodal Cancer Survival Prediction

Multimodal survival prediction, a crucial yet challenging task, demands the integration of multimodal medical data (\eg Whole Slide Images (WSIs) and Genomic Profiles) to achieve accurate prognostic modeling. Given the inherent heterogeneity across modalities, the feature decoupling-fusion paradigm has emerged as a dominant approach. However, these methods have the following shortcomings: (1) fail to reduce the redundant information of modality features before decoupling, which negatively affects the feature decoupling and fusion effect;(2) lack the ability to model the fine-grained relationships of the features and capture the local information interactions between intra- and inter-modality features. To address these issues, we propose a \underline{H}ierarchical \underline{D}ecoupling-Fusion \underline{M}ixture-\underline{o}f-\underline{E}xperts (HDMoE) framework with two levels of MoE and \underline{R}andom \underline{F}eature \underline{R}eorganization (RFR) modules.In the first-level MoE, shared experts and routed experts are employed to remove redundant information and extract fine-grained specific features within each modality, while the second-level MoE facilitates fine-grained inter-modality feature decoupling. Besides, we design two RFR modules following each level of MoE to finely fuse intra- and inter-modality features, which can help the model capture more fine-grained relationships between modalities. Extensive experimental results on our private Liver Cancer (LC) and three TCGA public datasets confirm the effectiveness of our proposed method. Codes are available at https://github.com/ZJUMAI/HDMoE.

Huayi Wang, Haochao Ying, Yuyang Xu +5

Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China · Xinjiang University Urumqi, China · Hangzhou City University Hangzhou, China +1

Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis Mixture-of-Experts Models Multimodal Fusion

May 12, 2026q-bio.QM

Attention-Based Multimodal Survival Prediction with Cross-Modal Bilinear Fusion

We propose a novel multimodal deep learning framework for patient-level survival prediction, which integrates whole-slide histology features, RNA-seq expression profiles, and clinical variables. Our architecture combines an ABMIL module~\cite{ilse2018attention} for slide-level representation with feedforward encoders for RNA and clinical data. These embeddings are then integrated through low-rank bilinear cross-modal fusion~\cite{liu2018efficient} to model conditional interactions across modalities while controlling parameter growth. The model outputs continuous risk scores that are subsequently mapped to survival times using a nonparametric calibration procedure based on the Kaplan--Meier estimator~\cite{kaplan1958nonparametric}. By decomposing multimodal reasoning into independent pairwise interactions, the proposed fusion design promotes structural interpretability and parameter efficiency compared with full tensor and hierarchical fusion strategies. Experiments on the CHIMERA challenge dataset demonstrate improved predictive performance over concatenation-based baselines and competitive generalization on hidden evaluation cohorts. These results indicate that the proposed framework is a promising approach for multimodal survival prediction in HR-NMIBC. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/hassancpu/ChimeraChallenge2025_Task_3.

Hassan Keshvarikhojasteh, Josien P. W. Pluim, Mitko Veta

Department of Biomedical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

Representation Learning Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis Multimodal Fusion

May 1, 2026cs.CV

CURE-OOD: Benchmarking Out-of-Distribution Detection for Survival Prediction

``How long can I live and remain free of cancer?'' is often the first question a patient asks after receiving a cancer diagnosis and treatment. Accurate survival prediction helps alleviate psychological distress and supports risk stratification and personalized treatment planning. Recent survival prediction frameworks have shown strong performance using computed tomography (CT) images. However, variations in imaging acquisition introduce out-of-distribution (OOD) samples caused by covariate shifts that undermine model reliability. Despite this challenge, to our knowledge, no existing benchmark systematically studies OOD detection in cancer survival prediction. To address this gap, we introduce the Cancer sURvival bEnchmark for OOD Detection (CURE-OOD), the first benchmark for systematically evaluating OOD detection in survival prediction under controlled acquisition-induced distribution shifts. CURE-OOD defines scanner-parameter-based training, in-distribution (ID), and OOD test splits across four survival prediction tasks. Our experiments show that covariate shifts notably reduce survival prediction performance. It also shows that mainstream classification-oriented OOD detectors can fail in survival prediction. Finally, we include HazardDev as a simple survival-aware reference baseline for OOD detection. CURE-OOD enables systematic analysis of how distribution shifts affect both downstream survival performance and OOD detectability.

Wenjie Zhao, Jia Li, Mingrui Liu +2

University of Texas at Dallas · George Mason University · UT Southwestern Medical Center

Cancer Survival Prediction Distribution Shift Covariate Shift Oncology OOD Detection Medical Image Benchmarks

Apr 27, 2026cs.CV

Benchmarking Pathology Foundation Models for Breast Cancer Survival Prediction

Pathology foundation models (PFMs) have recently emerged as powerful pretrained encoders for computational pathology, enabling transfer learning across a wide range of downstream tasks. However, systematic comparisons of these models for clinically meaningful prediction problems remain limited, especially in the context of survival prediction under external validation. In this study, we benchmark widely used and recently proposed PFMs for breast cancer survival prediction from whole-slide histopathology images. Using a standardized pipeline based on patch-level feature extraction and a unified survival modeling framework, we evaluate model representations across three independent clinical cohorts comprising more than 5,400 patients with long-term follow-up. Models are trained on one cohort and evaluated on two independent external cohorts, enabling a rigorous assessment of cross-dataset generalization. Overall, H-optimus-1 achieves the strongest survival prediction performance. More broadly, we observe consistent generational improvements across model families, with second-generation PFMs outperforming their first-generation counterparts. However, absolute performance differences between many recent PFMs remain modest, suggesting diminishing returns from further scaling of pretraining data or model size alone. Notably, the compact distilled model H0-mini slightly outperforms its larger teacher model H-optimus-0, despite using fewer than 8% of the parameters and enabling significantly faster feature extraction. Together, these results provide the first large-scale, externally validated benchmark of PFMs for breast cancer survival prediction, and offer practical guidance for efficient deployment of PFMs in clinical workflows.

Fredrik K. Gustafsson, Constance Boissin, Johan Vallon-Christersson +2

Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden · Division of Oncology, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University, Lund, Sweden · Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK +1

Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Pathology Foundation Models Oncology Medical Image Benchmarks Whole-Slide Image Analysis

Apr 27, 2026cs.LG

PathMoG: A Pathway-Centric Modular Graph Neural Network for Multi-Omics Survival Prediction

Cancer survival prediction from multi-omics data remains challenging because prognostic signals are high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and distributed across interacting genes and pathways. We propose PathMoG, a pathway-centric modular graph neural network for multi-omics survival prediction. PathMoG reorganizes genome-scale inputs into 354 KEGG-informed pathway modules, introduces a Hierarchical Omics Modulation module to condition gene-expression representations on mutation, copy number variation, pathway, and clinical context, and uses dual-level attention to capture both intra-pathway driver signals and inter-pathway clinical relevance. We evaluated PathMoG on 5,650 patients across 10 TCGA cancer types and observed consistent improvements over representative survival baselines. The framework further provides gene-level, pathway-level, and patient-level interpretability, supporting biologically grounded and clinically relevant risk stratification.

Di Wang, Chupei Tang, Junxiao Kong +3

1Cuiying Honors College, Lanzhou University, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, China and Shanghai Innovation Institute +1

Cancer Genomics Graph Neural Networks Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Oncology Modular Neural Networks

Apr 17, 2026cs.LG

Graph Transformer-Based Pathway Embedding for Cancer Prognosis

Accurate prediction of cancer progression remains a challenge due to the high heterogeneity of molecular omics data across patients. While biologically informed models have improved the interpretability of these predictions, a persistent limitation lies in how they encode individual genes to construct pathway representations. Existing hierarchical models typically derive gene features by directly mapping raw molecular inputs, whereas integration frameworks often rely on simple statistical aggregations of patient-level signals. These approaches often fail to explicitly learn a shared base representation for each gene, thereby limiting the expressiveness and biological accuracy of downstream pathway embeddings. To address this, we introduce PATH, a modulation-based, patient-conditioned gene embedding strategy. PATH represents a paradigm shift by starting from a shared base embedding for each gene, preserving a stable biological identity across the population, and then dynamically adapting it using patient-specific copy number variation (CNV) and mutation signals. This allows the model to capture subtle individual molecular variations while maintaining a consistent latent understanding of the gene itself. We integrate PATH into a graph transformer framework that models interactions among biologically connected pathways through pathway-guided attention. Across pancancer metastasis prediction, PATH achieves an F1 score of 0.8766, representing an 8.8 percent improvement over the current SOTA multi-omics benchmarks. Beyond superior predictive accuracy, our approach identifies biologically meaningful pathways and, crucially, reveals disease-state-specific pathway rewiring, offering new insights into the evolving pathway-pathway interactions that drive cancer progression.

Koushik Howlader, Md Tauhidul Islam, Wei Le

Iowa State University, Iowa, USA · Stanford University, CA, USA

Cancer Genomics Cancer Survival Prediction Clinical Outcome Prediction Oncology

Apr 17, 2026cs.CV

Ranking XAI Methods for Head and Neck Cancer Outcome Prediction

For head and neck cancer (HNC) patients, prognostic outcome prediction can support personalized treatment strategy selection. Improving prediction performance of HNC outcomes has been extensively explored by using advanced artificial intelligence (AI) techniques on PET/CT data. However, the interpretability of AI remains a critical obstacle for its clinical adoption. Unlike previous HNC studies that empirically selected explainable AI (XAI) techniques, we are the first to comprehensively evaluate and rank 13 XAI methods across 24 metrics, covering faithfulness, robustness, complexity and plausibility. Experimental results on the multi-center HECKTOR challenge dataset show large variations across evaluation aspects among different XAI methods, with Integrated Gradients (IG) and DeepLIFT (DL) consistently obtained high rankings for faithfulness, complexity and plausibility. This work highlights the importance of comprehensive XAI method evaluation and can be extended to other medical imaging tasks.

Baoqiang Ma, Djennifer K. Madzia-Madzou, Rosa C. J. Kraaijveld +1

Image Sciences Institute, University Medical Center Utrecht

Gradient-Based Attribution Cancer Survival Prediction Oncology Explainable Medical Image Analysis Explainability Evaluation

Nov 22, 2025cs.CV

Together, Then Apart: Balancing Alignment and Distinctiveness for Multimodal Survival Analysis

Multimodal survival analysis aims to improve cancer prognosis using heterogeneous biomedical data, such as histopathology images and genomic profiles. A common strategy is to align representations across modalities so that shared signals can be captured. However, strong cross-modal alignment can also remove modality-specific evidence that is critical for survival prediction. In this paper, we revisit multimodal survival learning from a simple observation: effective models should first discover shared patterns across modalities, and then preserve modality-specific signals. This motivates a representation learning principle that we refer to as Together Then Apart. Based on this idea, we propose TTA, a framework that balances cross-modal alignment and representation distinctiveness. TTA first performs prototype-based alignment to capture shared survival-related structures between modalities. It then encourages modality-specific distinctiveness through an anchor-guided contrastive objective. To further account for modality imbalance and noisy correspondences, we model cross-modal interactions using unbalanced optimal transport. We evaluate the proposed approach on multiple TCGA cancer cohorts with paired histopathology and genomic data. TTA consistently improves survival prediction over recent multimodal survival models. Moreover, the learned prototype structures reveal interpretable cross-modal patterns associated with clinical outcomes.

Wenjing Liu, Qin Ren, Wen Zhang +2

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA · Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA · Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY, USA

Cancer Survival Prediction Survival Analysis Cross-Modal Alignment Oncology Multimodal Survival Analysis Multimodal Contrastive Learning

Oct 7, 2025cs.CV

Multimodal Feature Prototype Learning for Interpretable and Discriminative Cancer Survival Prediction

Survival analysis plays a vital role in making clinical decisions. However, the models currently in use are often difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness in clinical settings. Prototype learning presents a potential solution, yet traditional methods focus on local similarities and static matching, neglecting the broader tumor context and lacking strong semantic alignment with genomic data. To overcome these issues, we introduce an innovative prototype-based multimodal framework, FeatProto, aimed at enhancing cancer survival prediction by addressing significant limitations in current prototype learning methodologies within pathology. Our framework establishes a unified feature prototype space that integrates both global and local features of whole slide images (WSI) with genomic profiles. This integration facilitates traceable and interpretable decision-making processes. Our approach includes three main innovations: (1) A robust phenotype representation that merges critical patches with global context, harmonized with genomic data to minimize local bias. (2) An Exponential Prototype Update Strategy (EMA ProtoUp) that sustains stable cross-modal associations and employs a wandering mechanism to adapt prototypes flexibly to tumor heterogeneity. (3) A hierarchical prototype matching scheme designed to capture global centrality, local typicality, and cohort-level trends, thereby refining prototype inference. Comprehensive evaluations on four publicly available cancer datasets indicate that our method surpasses current leading unimodal and multimodal survival prediction techniques in both accuracy and interpretability, providing a new perspective on prototype learning for critical medical applications. Our source code is available at https://github.com/JSLiam94/FeatProto.

Shuo Jiang, Zhuwen Chen, Liaoman Xu +6

Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China · School of Information and Communication Technology, Griffith University, QLD 4215, Australia · Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data, Shenzhen 518172, China +3

Computational Pathology Cancer Survival Prediction Prototype Learning Multimodal Survival Analysis Explainable Medical Image Analysis Whole-Slide Image Analysis+1

Mar 3, 2025eess.IV

CrossFusion: A Multi-Scale Cross-Attention Convolutional Fusion Model for Cancer Survival Prediction

Cancer survival prediction from whole slide images (WSIs) is a challenging task in computational pathology due to the large size, irregular shape, and high granularity of the WSIs. These characteristics make it difficult to capture the full spectrum of patterns, from subtle cellular abnormalities to complex tissue interactions, which are crucial for accurate prognosis. To address this, we propose CrossFusion, a novel multi-scale feature integration framework that extracts and fuses information from patches across different magnification levels. By effectively modeling both scale-specific patterns and their interactions, CrossFusion generates a rich feature set that enhances survival prediction accuracy. We validate our approach across six cancer types from public datasets, demonstrating significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, when coupled with domain-specific feature extraction backbones, our method shows further gains in prognostic performance compared to general-purpose backbones. The source code is available at: https://github.com/RustinS/CrossFusion

Rustin Soraki, Huayu Wang, Sitong Liu +2

University of Washington, Seattle, WA · University of California, Los Angeles, CA

Computational Pathology Cancer Survival Prediction Cross-Attention Multi-Scale Feature Fusion Oncology Whole-Slide Image Analysis

Date pendingeess.IV

PathoHR: Breast Cancer Survival Prediction on High-Resolution Pathological Images

Breast cancer survival prediction in computational pathology presents a remarkable challenge due to tumor heterogeneity. For instance, different regions of the same tumor in the pathology image can show distinct morphological and molecular characteristics. This makes it difficult to extract representative features from whole slide images (WSIs) that truly reflect the tumor's aggressive potential and likely survival outcomes. In this paper, we present PathoHR, a novel pipeline for accurate breast cancer survival prediction that enhances any size of pathological images to enable more effective feature learning. Our approach entails (1) the incorporation of a plug-and-play high-resolution Vision Transformer (ViT) to enhance patch-wise WSI representation, enabling more detailed and comprehensive feature extraction, (2) the systematic evaluation of multiple advanced similarity metrics for comparing WSI-extracted features, optimizing the representation learning process to better capture tumor characteristics, (3) the demonstration that smaller image patches enhanced follow the proposed pipeline can achieve equivalent or superior prediction accuracy compared to raw larger patches, while significantly reducing computational overhead. Experimental findings valid that PathoHR provides the potential way of integrating enhanced image resolution with optimized feature learning to advance computational pathology, offering a promising direction for more accurate and efficient breast cancer survival prediction. Code will be available at https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/PathoHR.

Yang Luo, Shiru Wang, Jun Liu +7

XJLTU · Dartmouth · NUP +7

Computational Pathology Cancer Survival Prediction Medical Image Representation Learning Whole-Slide Image Analysis