Causal Effect Estimation

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 184

May 5, 2026stat.ME

Copula-Based Endogeneity Correction for Doubly Robust Estimation of Treatment Effect

Doubly Robust (DR) estimation of treatment effect relies on an untestable assumption that is the absence of unobserved confounding. This assumption is par- ticularly problematic in the context of healthcare research, where variables like pre- scription refill rates serve as proxies for unobserved behaviors such as medication adherence. These proxy variables are often endogenous, exhibiting correlation with the regression error term due to unmeasured confounding or measurement error. We propose a copula-corrected doubly robust estimator that addresses endogeneity in both the treatment and outcome models without requiring instrumental variables. Gaussian copulas model the joint distribution of endogenous covariates and the error term, enabling consistent estimation while preserving the doubly robust property that requires correct specification of either the treatment or outcome model, not both. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that naive DR estimation exhibits substantial bias under endogeneity, whereas our corrected estimator recovers unbiased treatment effects across different data-generating processes. We apply our method to examine the effect of nutritional counseling on blood pressure using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. Naive DR estimation suggests counseling is associated with increased blood pressure. After copula correction, this effect becomes statistically insignificant, consistent with literature showing modest effects of nutri- Counseling in reducing blood pressure. Our methodology provides researchers with a practical tool for obtaining treatment effects in the presence of endogeneity.

Sahil Shikalgar, Md. Noor-E-Alam

Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Doubly Robust Estimation

May 4, 2026cs.SE

Causal Software Engineering: A Vision and Roadmap

Software engineering increasingly involves making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, using signals from code, field data, and socio-technical processes. Recent AI-driven support (e.g., anomaly detection, predictive analytics, AIOps, as well as LLM-based agents) has amplified engineers' ability to detect patterns and synthesize content and recommendations, but many critical questions are interventional or counterfactual: What is the expected impact of changing a load-balancing strategy? Would an outage have been avoided under a different release plan? Correlational models answer "what tends to co-occur"; they struggle to answer "what would happen if we act." We propose Causal Software Engineering (CSE) as a future paradigm in which causal models and causal reasoning systematically inform activities across the software lifecycle, augmenting existing practices with explicit assumptions, uncertainty-aware effect estimates, and counterfactual diagnosis. We outline (i) a causal-first workflow view spanning development and operations, (ii) a staged roadmap for tools and organizational adoption, and (iii) an evaluation and benchmark agenda for measuring progress.

Roberto Pietrantuono, Luca Giamattei, Stefano Russo +2

University of Naples Federico II · Naples, Italy · Fraunhofer IESE +3

Software Engineering Causal Effect Estimation Causal Reasoning Causal Inference

May 3, 2026stat.ML

Distributional Causal Mediation via Conditional Generative Modeling

Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms. We propose Distributional Causal Mediation Analysis (DCMA), a generative learning framework for identifying and estimating treatment effects on entire outcome distributions transmitted through multiple mediators. DCMA learns conditional generative models for the mediators and the outcome, recovering the relevant conditional distributions from observational data. Leveraging the identification formulas, it reconstructs interventional outcome distributions via Monte Carlo forward simulation by noise resampling, enabling the capture of both classical summary effects and rich distributional contrasts such as energy distance and the Wasserstein distance. Analytical error bounds are derived to decompose how estimation errors in the learned conditional models propagate to the reconstructed interventional outcome distributions. The empirical effectiveness of DCMA is demonstrated through numerical experiments and real-world data applications.

Jinlun Zhang, Haoneng Huang, Zishu Zhan +1

State Key Laboratory of Multi-organ Injury Prevention and Treatment, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Mediation Analysis Causal Inference

May 3, 2026cs.GT

The (Marginal) Value of a Search Ad: An Online Causal Framework for Repeated Second-price Auctions

Existing auto-bidding algorithms in digital advertising often treat the value of an ad opportunity as the revenue obtained when an ad is shown and/or clicked, and bid accordingly. This can lead to wasteful spending because the true value is the marginal gain from paid exposure: even without winning a sponsored slot, an advertiser may still earn revenue via an organic search result (e.g., on Google or Amazon). Motivated by recent work, we model ad value as a treatment effect--the outcome difference between winning and losing the auction--and study online learning for bidding in second-price (Vickrey) auctions under this causal perspective. We develop algorithms that attain rate-optimal regret under several feedback models. A key ingredient exploits the information revealed by the second-price payment rule, which strictly improves regret relative to analogous learning problems in first-price auctions.

Yuxiao Wen, Zihao Hu, Yanjun Han +2

Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University · Department of Mathematics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and the Center for Data Science, New York University +2

Causal Effect Estimation Automated Bidding Online Advertising Online Learning

May 2, 2026stat.ME

Minimum Specification Perturbation: Robustness as Distance-to-Falsification in Causal Inference

Empirical causal claims depend on many analyst decisions, from selecting covariates to choosing estimators. Existing robustness tools summarize how results vary across these choices, but, to the best of our knowledge, do not answer: \textbf{How many analyst decisions must change to reach a specification, which is a set of choices, whose confidence interval (CI) contains zero?} We introduce \emph{Minimum Specification Perturbation (MSP)}, the smallest number of changes. MSP is small under the null, grows with effect strength and captures distance-to-falsification information that dispersion-based summaries cannot report; when making decisions under weak effects, an MSP-based rule yields lower false-positive rates than dispersion-based rules. We show that Fragility Index and MSP measure orthogonal vulnerabilities: fragility to influential observations need not imply fragility to specification choices. On the LaLonde benchmark, MSP = 1 implies that one decision change makes the CI contain zero. We further provide exact permutation calibration under randomization and characterize computation, showing tractable cases under additive structure and NP-hardness in general.

Hoang Dang, Luan Pham, Minh Nguyen

Independent Researcher · RMIT University, Australia · Florida Atlantic University, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Sensitivity Analysis

Apr 30, 2026stat.ML

SHIFT: Robust Double Machine Learning for Average Dose-Response Functions under Heavy-Tailed Contamination

Double-machine-learning pipelines for the Average Dose-Response Function rely on kernel-weighted local-linear smoothers, which inherit unbounded functional influence: a single outlier within a kernel window biases the curve across the entire window. We introduce SHIFT (Self-calibrated Heavy-tail Inlier-Fit with Tempering), a robust DML estimator combining cross-fit nuisance orthogonalization with a kernel-local Welsch-loss second stage optimized by Graduated Non-Convexity, and -- the principal design choice -- a defensive OLS refit whose inlier cutoff is scaled by post-GNC residual MAD rather than the raw-outcome MAD. On a localized-contamination stress test at

p=0.25

this design choice drops level-RMSE from 1.03 to 0.33 while leaving clean and uniformly-contaminated runs unchanged. Across 1,400 main-sweep fits, SHIFT has competitive worst-case shape recovery (RMSE

0.325

at

p=0.25

, second to Huber-DML's

0.276

); among the three methods with worst-case RMSE below

0.35

, only SHIFT emits a non-uniform per-sample weight vector, recovering the ground-truth outlier mask at mean

F_1 \approx 0.96

(range

0.945

--

0.968

) on Gaussian-jump DGPs. We pair the estimator with a six-technique Extreme Value Theory diagnostic suite (Hill, GPD-MLE/PWM, GEV, Mean Excess, parameter stability, causal tail coefficient) that lets a practitioner distinguish Frechet from Weibull regimes and choose between SHIFT and L1 alternatives on empirical grounds. Extensions to binary-treatment CATE (Huber pseudo-outcome X-Learner) and time-series ADRF (block-CV + rolling MAD) are included. A counter-intuitive ablation: linear nuisance models (Ridge, Lasso) outperform gradient-boosted nuisances for robust DML under uniform contamination, inverting the usual more-flexible-is-better heuristic.

Eichi Uehara

Independent researcher.

Double ML Robust Regression Causal Effect Estimation Data Contamination Heavy-Tailed Distributions Extreme Value Theory+1

Apr 30, 2026stat.ML

Bayesian X-Learner: Calibrated Posterior Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Heavy-Tailed Outcomes

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation in practice demands three properties simultaneously: heterogeneous effects

τ(x)

, calibrated uncertainty over them, and robustness to the heavy tails that contaminate real outcome data. Meta-learners (Künzel et al., 2019) give (i); causal forests and BART give (i)-(ii) with Gaussian-tail assumptions; no widely used tool gives all three. We present Bayesian X-Learner, an X-Learner built on cross-fitted doubly robust pseudo-outcomes (Kennedy, 2020) with a full MCMC posterior over

τ(x)

via a Welsch redescending pseudo-likelihood. On Hill's IHDP benchmark the default configuration attains mean

\sqrt{\varepsilon_{\mathrm{PEHE}}} = 0.56

on 5 replications (lowest mean; differences from S-/T-/X-learners, full-config Causal BART, and a causal forest baseline are not significant at

α=0.05

, and rank ordering is unstable at 10 replications -- IHDP comparisons are competitive rather than dominant). On contaminated "whale" DGPs with up to 20-25% tail density, a one-flag extension (contamination_severity) that selects a Huber-

δ

nuisance loss per Huber's minimax-

δ

relation recovers RMSE

\approx 0.13

with tight credible intervals (single-cross-fit 30-seed coverage 83% [Wilson 66%, 93%] at 20% density; modular-Bayes pooling with Bayesian-bootstrap nuisance draws restores nominal 95% coverage).

Eichi Uehara

Independent researcher

Robust Regression Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Bayesian Inference Heavy-Tailed Distributions Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation+1

Apr 30, 2026stat.ML

A Novel Computational Framework for Causal Inference: Tree-Based Discretization with ILP-Based Matching

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision-making, as it aims to uncover causal relationships from observational data. However, identifying causality remains challenging due to the potential for confounding and the distinction between correlation and causation. While recent advances in causal machine learning and matching algorithms have improved estimation accuracy, these methods often face trade-offs between interpretability and computational efficiency. This paper proposes a novel approach that combines a tree-based discretization technique, tailored for causal inference, with an integer linear programming-based matching algorithm. The discretization ensures approximately linear relationships for control datasets within strata, enabling effective matching, while the optimization framework optimizes for global balance. The resulting algorithm yields computational efficiency and less biased ATT estimates compared to state-of-the-art algorithms. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the proposed method's practical advantages over existing techniques in causal inference scenarios.

Tianyu Yang, Md. Noor-E-Alam

Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Integer Linear Programming

Apr 28, 2026cs.LG

Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits: Bridging Uplift Modeling and Sequential Decision-Making

Treatment allocation under budget constraints is a central challenge in digital advertising: advertisers must decide which users to show ads to while spending a limited budget wisely. The standard approach follows a two-stage offline pipeline - first collect historical data to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE), then solve a constrained optimization to allocate the budget. This works well with abundant data, but fails in cold-start settings such as new campaigns, new markets, or new customer segments where little historical data exists. We propose Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB), an online framework that learns which users respond to ads while simultaneously spending the budget, making treatment decisions one user at a time. BCCB unifies three components into a single sequential process: learning individual-level ad effectiveness, exploring users whose response is uncertain, and pacing the budget over time. We evaluated on the Criteo Uplift dataset, a large-scale advertising dataset from a real randomized controlled trial. Our key finding is a data-efficiency crossover: offline methods require approximately 10,000 historical observations to produce reliable results, while BCCB operates effectively from the very first user. Furthermore, BCCB exhibits 3-5x lower performance variance between runs, making it more practical for real campaign planning. Among purely online methods, BCCB consistently outperforms standard Thompson Sampling, budgeted Thompson Sampling, and greedy HTE estimation across all budget levels tested.

Abhirami Pillai

utdallas

Multi-Armed Bandits Causal Effect Estimation Online Advertising Contextual Bandits Online Resource Allocation

Apr 28, 2026cs.LG

Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time

Causal inference in continuous-time sequential decision problems is challenged by hidden confounding and partially observed states. We show that, under explicit structural assumptions, observability of the latent state enables identification of dynamic treatment effects through a continuous-time conditional front-door adjustment, even in the presence of hidden confounding. We derive a general adjustment formula and show that it reduces to a tractable state-space formula when unobserved contemporaneous disturbances are temporally uncorrelated. This formula expresses potential-outcome distributions under alternative treatment trajectories through the measurement model, latent dynamics, and the filtering distribution over latent states. We propose Observable Neural ODEs (ObsNODEs), Neural ODE models in observable normal form that implement this tractable adjustment for causal forecasting. ObsNODEs learn continuous-time dynamics with states reconstructible from observations, enabling outcome prediction under alternative treatment paths. Experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world clinical data demonstrate strong performance over recent sequence models, including external validation.

Jennifer Wendland, Nicolas Freitag, Maik Kschischo

Department of Computer Science University of Koblenz 53424 Koblenz, Germany

Causal Effect Estimation Clinical Outcome Prediction Causal Identifiability Causal Inference Neural ODEs

Apr 28, 2026cs.AI

TrialCalibre: A Fully Automated Causal Engine for RCT Benchmarking and Observational Trial Calibration

Real-world evidence (RWE) studies that emulate target trials increasingly inform regulatory and clinical decisions, yet residual, hard-to-quantify biases still limit their credibility. The recently proposed BenchExCal framework addresses this challenge via a two-stage Benchmark, Expand, Calibrate process, which first compares an observational emulation against an existing randomized controlled trial (RCT), then uses observed divergence to calibrate a second emulation for a new indication causal effect estimation. While methodologically powerful, BenchExCal is resource intensive and difficult to scale. We introduce TrialCalibre, a conceptualized multiagent system designed to automate and scale the BenchExCal workflow. Our framework features specialized agents such as the Orchestrator, Protocol Design, Data Synthesis, Clinical Validation, and Quantitative Calibration Agents that coordi-nate the the overall process. TrialCalibre incorpo-rates agent learning (e.g., RLHF) and knowledge blackboards to support adaptive, auditable, and transparent causal effect estimation.

Amir Habibdoust, Xing Song

Institute for Data Science and Informatics, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA. · Department of Biomedical Informatics, Biostatistics, and Medical Epidemiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA.

Causal Effect Estimation Benchmark Design Scientific Workflow Automation Autonomous Research Agents

Apr 27, 2026cs.LG

Dialysis Risk Prediction and Treatment Effect Estimation for AKI patients using Longitudinal Electronic Health Records

Progression to dialysis or end-stage renal disease is a rare but clinically important outcome. Clinicians need evidence on how medication exposures influence downstream risk. We constructed a fixed-window EHR cohort (90-day observation, 730-day prediction; N=81401; dialysis/ESRD prevalence: 1.1%) and modeled sequences of diagnoses, procedures, and medications with kidney laboratory trends (creatinine, BUN, eGFR). A transformer-based causal multi-head model was trained to estimate drug- and ingredient-level average treatment effects (ATEs) using counterfactual exposure removal and insertion under a full medication history setup. On test set, predictive performance reached an AUC of 0.694 and PR-AUC of 0.094. At the selected decision threshold (0.883), the model achieved an F1 score of 0.201 with a Brier score of 0.018. Post-hoc causal analyses of lab changes (eGFR, creatinine, BUN) using IPTW, AIPW, naive, and covariate-adjusted OLS methods assessed clinical directionality. Results showed partial protective-direction support for ACE/ARB exposures and worsening-direction signals for loop diuretics.

Kalyani P. Pande, Evan Yang, Bryan Zhu +3

Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Healthcare Longitudinal EHR Modeling Clinical Risk Prediction

Apr 26, 2026stat.ME

Generative Synthetic Data for Causal Inference: Pitfalls, Remedies, and Opportunities

Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference. We show that fully generative tabular synthesizers, including GAN- and LLM-based models, can preserve predictive utility while distorting average treatment effect (ATE) estimates. The failure is structural: ATE preservation requires both a realistic covariate law and an accurate treatment-effect contrast, whereas prediction loss penalizes treatment-effect error only through an overlap-weighted term. Thus, under imbalance or limited overlap, a generator may reproduce dominant observed outcomes while underlearning intervention-relevant contrasts. We formalize this mismatch through sensitivity and loss-decomposition results. Motivated by this causal analysis and intuition, we propose a hybrid synthetic-data framework for causal inference that generates covariates while modeling treatment and outcome mechanisms separately. We evaluate the framework in three settings: ATE preservation under fully generative versus hybrid synthesis, augmentation for practical positivity problems, and diagnostic simulation engines for comparing OR, IPW, AIPW, and TMLE before real-data analysis. We also stress-test the hybrid construction across settings that vary overlap, covariate dimension, seed sample size, and treatment-effect complexity, including a logistic outcome-model misspecification check. Across controlled simulation experiments, hybrid synthesis improves causal fidelity relative to fully generative baselines; the ACTG application shows improved predictive fidelity and potential for finite-sample estimator benchmarking. LLM-based hybrid synthesis is often more faithful than CTGAN in settings where causal fidelity can be assessed.

Yichen Xu

University of California, Berkeley

Causal Effect Estimation Synthetic Data Generation Synthetic Tabular Data Generation Synthetic Data Evaluation Causal Intervention

Apr 25, 2026cs.LG

Machine learning models for estimating counterfactuals in a single-arm inflammatory bowel disease study

Single-arm trials accelerate study timelines by reducing the number of patients that must be recruited for a concurrent control group. However, these designs require an alternative comparator to estimate treatment effects. One approach is to construct a virtual control arm using a machine learning (ML) model trained on external control data to predict the counterfactual outcomes of the treatment arm. Our aim in this study was to leverage virtual controls by developing and evaluating ML-based counterfactual outcome models trained on IFX-treated patients to predict 1-year steroid-free clinical remission (SFCR ) and a composite of C-reactive protein remission plus steroid-free clinical remission (CRP-SFCR) for ADA-treated pediatric Crohn's disease patients, and to compare the resulting IFX-versus-ADA treatment effect estimates with those obtained using propensity score matching to external controls. Five ML models were used to train counterfactual models on the observed IFX cohort data. The resulting models were used to predict the counterfactual outcomes for the ADA arm patients. LGBM yields the best OR closest to the propensity score matched reference, and all 95% CI results align with the conclusion from the reference study that no statistical difference in the primary and secondary outcomes has been observed between the patients treated with ADA or IFX. Our study supports virtual controls as a viable and effective substitute for expensive, lengthy or unethical patient recruitment in an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) trial. The developed gradient boosted prediction model can be used as a pretrained model to generate IFX counterfactual predictions in future studies, pending external validation and assessment of transportability.

Dan Liu, Fida K. Dankar, Jennifer C. deBruyn +4

Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · Alberta Children’s Hospital, Calgary, Alberta, Canada +3

Causal Effect Estimation Clinical Outcome Prediction Counterfactual Prediction Counterfactual Learning

Apr 25, 2026cs.LG

Robustness of Refugee-Matching Gains to Off-Policy Evaluation Choices

Previous research has investigated the potential of refugee matching for boosting refugee outcomes, first considered by Bansak et al. (2018). This paper demonstrates the stability of counterfactual impact evaluation results in the context of refugee matching in the United States using a range of off-policy evaluation methods. In order to estimate counterfactual impact and test the robustness of our results, we employ several evaluation methods, including inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple variants of augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW). We also consider various modifications, including alternative modeling architectures and different assignment procedures. The impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude in all scenarios as well as statistically significant in most cases. Furthermore, the estimates are also consistent with the results originally presented in Bansak et al. (2018).

Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson, Dominik Rothenhäusler +3

Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University · Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley · Technology and Operations Management Unit, Harvard Business School +3

Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Effect Estimation Off-Policy Evaluation

Apr 25, 2026stat.ML

MOCA: A Transformer-based Modular Causal Inference Framework with One-way Cross-attention and Cutting Feedback

Causal effect estimation from observational data requires careful adjustment for confounding. Classical estimators such as inverse probability weighting and augmented inverse probability weighting are effective under favorable model specification, but may become unstable when treatment assignment and outcome mechanisms are complex, non-linear, and high-dimensional. Machine learning and representation learning approaches improve flexibility, yet joint training can allow outcome-related information to influence treatment-side representations, which is undesirable from a causal perspective. We propose MOCA (Modular One-way Causal Attention), a transformer-based framework that separates treatment and outcome modeling through a modular design, and performs confounder adjustment using a one-way attention mechanism. A cutting-feedback strategy, implemented via gradient detachment, prevents the outcome loss from updating the treatment module. This design preserves directional information flow while retaining the representational power of transformer architectures for causal inference. Across multiple simulated scenarios, including linear, nonlinear, heavy-tailed, hidden confounding, and high-dimensional settings, MOCA shows competitive or improved performance relative to IPW, AIPW, X-learner, TARNet, and DragonNet. We further illustrate the method on the Infant Health and Development Program dataset and the Dehejia-Wahba dataset as real-world benchmarks. These results suggest that modular attention with one-way information flow provides a promising and interpretable direction for causal inference with modern deep learning models.

Lei Wang, Debashis Ghosh

Department of Biostatistics and Informatics Colorado School of Public Health

Causal Effect Estimation Cross-Attention Causal Inference

Apr 24, 2026cs.LG

From Local to Cluster: A Unified Framework for Causal Discovery with Latent Variables

Latent variables pose a fundamental challenge to causal discovery and inference. Conventional local methods focus on direct neighbors but fail to provide macro level insights. Cluster level methods enable macro causal reasoning but either assume clusters are known a priori or require causal sufficiency. Moreover, directly applying single variable causal discovery methods to cluster level problems violates causal sufficiency and leads to incorrect results. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes L2C (Local to Cluster Causal Abstraction), a unified framework that bridges local structure learning and cluster level causal discovery. Unlike prior work that requires a complete manual assignment of micro variables to clusters, L2C discovers the partition automatically from local causal patterns. Our solution leverages a cluster reduction theorem to reduce any cluster to at most three nodes without loss of causal information, applies local causal discovery to identify direct causes, effects, and V structures in the presence of latent variables, and performs macro level causal inference via cluster level calculus on the learned cluster graph. L2C does not assume causal sufficiency, as latent variables are handled through local discovery. Theoretical analysis shows that L2C ensures soundness, atomic completeness, and computational efficiency. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real world data demonstrate that L2C accurately recovers ground truth clusters and achieves superior macro causal effect identification compared to existing baselines.

Zongyu Li

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Discovery Causal Abstraction Causal Discovery with Latent Confounding

Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

Efficient Multi-Cohort Inference for Long-Term Effects and Lifetime Value in A/B Testing with User Learning

In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may fail to capture how a treatment affects users' retention. Consequently, an intervention may appear beneficial in the short term and neutral in the long term while still generating lower total value than the control due to users churn. To address this limitation, we introduce a method that estimates long-term treatment effects (LTE) and residual lifetime value change (

ΔERLV

) in short multi-cohort A/B tests under user learning. To estimate time-varying treatment effects efficiently, we introduce an inverse-variance weighted estimator that combines multiple cohorts estimates, reducing variance relative to standard approaches in the literature. The estimated treatment trajectory is then modeled as a parametric decay to recover both the asymptotic treatment effect and the cumulative value generated over time. Our framework enables simultaneous evaluation of steady-state impact and residual user value within a single experiment. Empirical results show improved precision in estimating LTE and

ΔERLV

and identify scenarios in which relying on either short-term or long-term metrics alone would lead to incorrect product decisions.

Dario Simionato, Andrea Tonon, Mingxue Wang +3

Huawei Ireland Research Centre Dublin, Ireland · Huawei Nanjing R&D Center Nanjing, China

Causal Effect Estimation A/b Testing

Apr 18, 2026cs.LG

LLM-Extracted Covariates for Clinical Causal Inference: Rethinking Integration Strategies

Causal inference from electronic health records (EHR) is fundamentally limited by unmeasured confounding: critical clinical states such as frailty, goals of care, and mental status are documented in free-text notes but absent from structured data. Large language models can extract these latent confounders as interpretable, structured covariates, yet how to effectively integrate them into causal estimation pipelines has not been systematically studied. Using the MIMIC-IV database with 21,859 sepsis patients, we compare seven covariate-integration strategies for estimating the effect of early vasopressor initiation on 28-day mortality, spanning tabular-only baselines, traditional NLP representations, and three LLM-augmented approaches. A central finding is that not all integration strategies are equally effective: directly augmenting the propensity score model with LLM covariates achieves the best performance, while dual-caliper matching on text-derived categorical distances restricts the donor pool and degrades estimation. In semi-synthetic experiments with known ground-truth effects, LLM-augmented propensity scores reduce estimation bias from 0.0143 to 0.0003 relative to tabular-only methods, and this advantage persists under substantial simulated extraction error. On real data, incorporating LLM-extracted covariates reduces the estimated treatment effect from 0.055 to 0.027, directionally consistent with the CLOVERS randomized trial, and a doubly robust estimator yielding 0.019 confirms the robustness of this finding. Our results offer practical guidance on when and how text-derived covariates improve causal estimation in critical care.

Lei Liu, Jialin Chen, Kathy Macropol

Department of Computer Science and Mathematics Arcadia University Glenside, PA, USA · Department of Computer Science Yale University New Haven, CT, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference

Mar 19, 2026cs.LG

Improving RCT-Based Treatment Effect Estimation Under Covariate Mismatch via Calibrated Alignment

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, yet they are often underpowered for detecting effect heterogeneity. Large observational studies (OS) can supplement RCTs for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation, but a key barrier is covariate mismatch: the two sources measure different, only partially overlapping, covariates. We propose CALM (Calibrated ALignment under covariate Mismatch), which learns embeddings that map each source's features into a common representation space. OS outcome models are transferred to the RCT embedding space and calibrated using trial data, preserving causal identification from randomization. Finite-sample risk bounds decompose into alignment error, outcome-model complexity, and calibration complexity terms, making explicit when the learned embedding is accurate enough to reduce variance. We instantiate CALM in two forms: a closed-form linear version, CALM-Lin, and a neural representation-learning version, CALM-NN. Across 51 simulation settings, calibration-based linear methods are effectively tied in linear-CATE regimes, while CALM-NN wins all 22 nonlinear-CATE settings by wide margins. Moreover, on two real-data studies CALM-NN delivers the largest gains over the trial-only baseline.

Amir Asiaee, Samhita Pal

Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, TN 37203, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Representation Learning Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Causal Inference Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation

Mar 17, 2026stat.ML

Conditional Distributional Treatment Effects: Doubly Robust Estimation and Testing

Beyond conditional average treatment effects, treatments may impact the entire outcome distribution in covariate-dependent ways, for example, by altering the variance or tail risks for specific subpopulations. We propose a novel estimand to capture such conditional distributional treatment effects, and develop a doubly robust estimator that is minimax optimal in the local asymptotic sense. Using this, we develop a test for the global homogeneity of conditional potential outcome distributions that accommodates discrepancies beyond the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), has provably valid type 1 error, and is consistent against fixed alternatives---the first test, to our knowledge, with such guarantees in this setting. We then provide a test that aggregates evidence across a grid of kernel-bandwidth choices. Furthermore, we derive exact closed-form expressions for two natural discrepancies (including the MMD), and provide a computationally efficient, permutation-free algorithm for our test.

Saksham Jain, Alex Luedtke

Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, USA · Departments of Health Care Policy and Statistics, Harvard University, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Doubly Robust Estimation Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Mar 1, 2026stat.ME

Robust Weighted Triangulation of Causal Effects Under Model Uncertainty

A fundamental challenge in causal inference with observational data is correct specification of a causal model. When there is model uncertainty, analysts may seek to use estimates from multiple candidate models that rely on distinct, and possibly partially overlapping, sets of identifying assumptions to infer the causal effect, a process known as triangulation. Principled methods for triangulation, however, remain underdeveloped. Here, we develop a framework for causal effect triangulation that combines model testability methods from causal discovery with statistical inference methods from semiparametric theory, while avoiding explicit model selection and post-selection inference problems. We propose a triangulation functional that combines identified functionals from each model with data-driven measures of model validity. We provide a bound on the distance of the functional from the true causal effect along with conditions under which this distance can be taken to zero. Finally, we derive valid statistical inference for this functional. Our framework formalizes robustness under causal pluralism without requiring agreement across models or commitment to a single specification. We demonstrate its performance through simulations and an empirical application.

Rohit Bhattacharya, Ina Ocelli, Ted Westling

Dept. of Computer Science, Williams College · Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts Amherst

Semiparametric Inference Causal Effect Estimation Causal Identifiability

Feb 25, 2026stat.ME

Coarsening Bias from Variable Discretization in Causal Functionals

Causal identification functionals often require integration over conditional densities of continuous variables, such as those arising in nonparametric identification theory of total and mediated causal effects in DAGs with hidden variables. Estimating these densities and evaluating the resulting integrals can be statistically and computationally demanding. A common workaround is to discretize the continuous variable and replace integrals with finite sums. Although convenient, discretization alters the population-level functional and can induce non-negligible approximation bias, even when identification is correct. Under smoothness conditions, we show that the resulting coarsening error is first order in the bin width and arises at the level of the target functional, distinct from statistical estimation error. We propose a simple debiased coarsened functional that evaluates the outcome regression at within-bin conditional means, eliminating the leading coarsening error term and yielding a second-order approximation error. We derive plug-in and one-step estimators for this debiased coarsened functional. Simulations demonstrate substantial bias reduction and near-nominal confidence interval coverage, even under coarse binning. Our results provide a simple framework for controlling the impact of variable discretization on both parameter approximation and statistical estimation.

Xiaxian Ou, Razieh Nabi

Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, U.S.A.

Causal Effect Estimation

Feb 24, 2026cs.AI

CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification, formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions, and estimation, implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 174 queries across 139 real-world datasets, curated from 73 peer-reviewed research papers and three widely used causal-inference textbooks. For each query, a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 81% of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 38%, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

Ayush Sawarni, Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis Syrgkanis

Stanford University

Causal Effect Estimation Benchmark Design Causal Identifiability Causal Reasoning Causal Inference

Feb 13, 2026cs.SI

Jointly Optimizing Debiased CTR and Uplift for Coupons Marketing: A Unified Causal Framework

In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. Observed clicks reflect a mixture of users' intrinsic preferences and the uplift induced by these interventions. This causes conventional models to miscalibrate base CTRs, which distorts downstream ranking and billing decisions. Furthermore, marketing interventions often operate as multi-valued treatments with varying magnitudes, introducing additional complexity to CTR prediction. To address these issues, we propose the Unified Multi-Valued Treatment Network (UniMVT). Specifically, UniMVT disentangles confounding factors from treatment-sensitive representations, enabling a full-space counterfactual inference module to jointly reconstruct the debiased base CTR and intensity-response curves. To handle the complexity of multi-valued treatments, UniMVT employs an auxiliary intensity estimation task to capture treatment propensities and devise a unit uplift objective that normalizes the intervention effect. This ensures comparable estimation across the continuous coupon-value spectrum. UniMVT simultaneously achieves debiased CTR prediction for accurate system calibration and precise uplift estimation for incentive allocation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and industrial datasets demonstrate UniMVT's superiority in both predictive accuracy and calibration. Furthermore, real-world A/B tests confirm that UniMVT significantly improves business metrics through more effective coupon distribution.

Siyun Yang, Shixiao Yang, Jian Wang +6

Kuaishou Technology Beijing, China · Beijing Institute of Technology Beijing, China · Independent Researcher Beijing, China

Causal Effect Estimation Online Advertising

Jan 30, 2026cs.LG

Uncertainty-aware Causal Decision Making via Effect Bound Decomposition

Causal inference from observational data can provide strong evidence for finding the best action in a decision-making scenario without having to perform expensive randomized trials. The causal effect of an action is often not pointwise identifiable even with infinite data due to unobserved confounding factors. Furthermore, having only finitely many samples adds another layer of uncertainty to causal effect estimation. Several existing methods can be used to obtain upper and lower bounds to the causal effect, ranging from symbolic methods to the more recent neural network-based approaches, which implicitly incorporate both sources of uncertainty. However, these methods do not inform whether collecting more samples may or may not help identify the best action from observational data, leaving experts in the dark about their data collection strategies. We address this problem with a novel framework that can distinguish the range of causal effect values that might be eliminated by collecting more samples from the range of values that, with high probability, cannot be eliminated with more observational samples. We show that this partitioning can be obtained by solving max-min and min-max optimization problems. We leverage neural causal models to approximately recover this decomposition in practice. We demonstrate via experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets that our algorithm can determine when collecting more samples will not help determine the best action. Our framework can help practitioners decide when to resort to non-observational studies or seek to measure some of the unmeasured confounders for optimal decision-making.

Md Musfiqur Rahman, Ziwei Jiang, Hilaf Hasson +1

Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University · Computer Science, Johns Hopkins University · Cohesity

Causal Effect Estimation Parameter Identifiability Partial Identification Causal Identifiability Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Dec 28, 2025cs.LG

From Confounding to Learning: Dynamic Service Fee Pricing on Third-Party Platforms

We study the pricing behavior of third-party platforms facing strategic agents. Assuming the platform is a revenue maximizer, it observes market features that generally affect demand. Since only transacted quantities and prices can be observed, this presents a general demand learning problem under confounding. Mathematically, we develop an algorithm with optimal regret of

\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T}\wedgeσ_S^{-2})

. Our results reveal that supply-side noise fundamentally affects the learnability of demand, leading to a phase transition in regret. Technically, we show that non-i.i.d. actions can serve as instrumental variables for learning demand. We also propose a novel homeomorphic construction that allows us to establish estimation bounds without assuming star-shapedness, providing the first efficiency guarantee for learning demand with deep neural networks. Finally, we use simulations and offline counterfactuals from Talabat and Lyft data to illustrate the potential revenue implications of our approach.

Rui Ai, David Simchi-Levi, Feng Zhu

MIT

Causal Effect Estimation Instrumental Variable Estimation Causal Inference Dynamic Pricing

Nov 23, 2025stat.ML

Reliable Selection of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimators

We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing problem and introduce a ground-truth-free procedure based on a cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic. A key component of our method is a two-way sample splitting scheme that decouples nuisance estimation from weight learning and ensures the stability required for valid inference. Leveraging a stability-based central limit theorem, we establish asymptotic familywise error rate control under mild regularity conditions. Empirically, our procedure provides reliable error control while substantially reducing false selections compared with commonly used methods across ACIC 2016, IHDP, and Twins benchmarks, demonstrating that our method is feasible and powerful even without ground-truth treatment effects.

Jiayi Guo, Zijun Gao

Peking University · Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California

Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation Multiple Hypothesis Testing Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Oct 9, 2025cs.LG

Spatial Deconfounder: Interference-Aware Deconfounding for Spatial Causal Inference

Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate standard no-interference assumptions. While existing methods typically address one by assuming away the other, we show they are deeply connected: interference reveals structure in the latent confounder. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Spatial Deconfounder, a two-stage method that reconstructs a substitute confounder from local treatment vectors using a conditional variational autoencoder (C-VAE) with a spatial prior, then estimates causal effects with a flexible outcome model. We show that this enables nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions--without multiple treatment types or a known latent-field model. Empirically, we extend SpaCE, a benchmark suite for spatial confounding, to include treatment interference, and show that the Spatial Deconfounder consistently improves effect estimation across real-world environmental health and social science datasets. By turning local interference into a multi-cause proxy for latent spatial confounding, our framework advances robust causal inference for spatial data.

Ayush Khot, Miruna Oprescu, Maresa Schröder +2

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign · Cornell University, Cornell Tech · LMU Munich, Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) +1

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference

Feb 27, 2025cs.LG

Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference without Networked Unconfoundedness Assumption

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of networked effects. However, this assumption is often violated due to the latent confounders inherent in observational data, thereby hindering the identification of networked effects. To address this issue, we leverage the rich interaction patterns between units in networks, which provide valuable information for recovering these latent confounders. Building on this insight, we develop a confounder recovery framework that explicitly characterizes three categories of latent confounders in networked settings: those affecting only the unit, those affecting only the unit's neighbors, and those influencing both. Based on this framework, we design a networked effect estimator using identifiable representation learning techniques. From a theoretical standpoint, we prove the identifiability of all three types of latent confounders and, by leveraging the recovered confounders, establish a formal identification result for networked effects. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Weilin Chen, Ruichu Cai, Jie Qiao +2

School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China · School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China and Peng Cheng Laboratory, Shenzhen, China · Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1PZ, United Kingdom

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Identifiability Causal Inference