Causal Inference

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 62% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 222

Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

CausalPOI: Spatio-Temporal Graph-Based Causal Modeling for Cold-Start POI Check-in Forecasting

As urban environments continue to evolve rapidly, accurately modeling the dynamic behaviour of Points of Interest is essential for supporting data-driven urban planning and commercial decision-making. While recent advancements in spatio-temporal graph learning have improved POI forecasting, most methods rely on proximity-based graphs and correlation-driven modeling, which overlook the functional dependencies between POIs and fail to capture the causal effects of urban interventions. In this paper, we introduce a novel research problem -- cold-start POI check-in forecasting, which aims to predict the future check-in pattern of a newly introduced POI, by modeling its temporal evolution and functional interactions with nearby POIs in a structured urban spatial context. To address these challenges, we propose CausalPOI, a spatio-temporal graph-based causal representation learning framework. CausalPOI leverages Spatio-Temporal Functional Interaction Graph to model semantic and spatial relationships between POIs, and constructs structurally aligned treatment and control graphs to simulate factual and counterfactual scenarios. Extensive experiments on real-world SafeGraph datasets demonstrate that CausalPOI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across the board, validating its effectiveness in spatio-temporal forecasting, semantic interaction modeling, and causal effect estimation, providing a more interpretable and actionable foundation for urban intervention analysis. Source code is available at Github.

Zhaoqi Zhang, Miao Xie, Yi Li +3

Nanyang Technological University Singapore, Singapore · China Agricultural University Beijing, China · Meituan Beijing, China

Causal Representation Learning Causal Inference Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

Reconciling Causality and Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics with Hamiltonian Causal Models

Causal modeling of physical temporal phenomena must handle interventions that act along trajectories, nonstationary induced laws, path-dependent effects, and feedback mediated by dynamics, all challenging in standard causal models. We introduce Hamiltonian Causal Models (HCMs), a trajectory-level framework in which observed variables interact with local environments and interventions act as controls of Hamiltonian mechanisms. HCMs separate immutable equations of motion from intervenable mechanisms and define causal effects as discrepancies between interventional path laws. A key motivation for HCMs is their natural interface with non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Entropy production quantifies the irreversibility of a process and is a central causal observable: it is estimable from data and witnesses causal effects along the system's evolution that are invisible to endpoint and cumulative versions of the standard average treatment effect. As in physics, cause and effect are not primitives of the relation between two random variables but arise from the non-invertibility of the thermodynamic arrow. With this, our paper reconciles the language of statistical causal models and non-stationary thermodynamics, offering new tools to describe causality in a wide range of physical systems.

Dario Rancati, Max Welling, Francesco Locatello

Institute of Science and Technology Austria · University of Amsterdam

Dynamical Systems Causal Inference Causal Intervention

Jun 2, 2026cs.CL

Using Text-Based Causal Inference to Disentangle Factors Influencing Online Review Ratings

Online reviews provide valuable insights into the perceived quality of facets of a product or service. While aspect-based sentiment analysis has focused on extracting these facets from reviews, there is less work understanding the impact of each aspect on overall perception. This is particularly challenging given correlations among aspects, making it difficult to isolate the effects of each. This paper introduces a methodology based on recent advances in text-based causal analysis, specifically CausalBERT, to disentangle the effect of each factor on overall review ratings. We enhance CausalBERT with three key improvements: temperature scaling for better calibrated treatment assignment estimates; hyperparameter optimization to reduce confound overadjustment; and interpretability methods to characterize discovered confounds. In this work, we treat the textual mentions in reviews as proxies for real-world attributes. We validate our approach on real and semi-synthetic data from over 600K reviews of U.S. K-12 schools. We find that the proposed enhancements result in more reliable estimates, and that perception of school administration and performance on benchmarks are significant drivers of overall school ratings.

Linsen Li, Aron Culotta, Nicholas Mattei

Department of Computer Science Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference

Jun 2, 2026cs.CV

Adaptive Causal Alignment for High-Confidence Adversarial Training

Inverse adversarial training leverages high-confidence predictions to stabilize robust learning, yet we uncover a critical paradox: high confidence often stems from overfitting to non-causal background correlations rather than intrinsic object semantics. Our investigation reveals that visual context functions as a dual-natured signal, serving as either a necessary supportive prior or a spurious confounder. This insight renders existing blind suppression strategies flawed, as they inevitably lead to severe Feature Loss. To resolve this, we propose High-Confidence Causally Aligned Training (HICAT), a unified framework that establishes a Semantic Equilibrium. Operating on a ``Measure-Debias-Align'' pipeline, HICAT integrates a Learnable Background-Bias Estimator (LBBE) to adaptively diagnose context utility. Guided by this diagnosis, an Adaptive Debiasing mechanism performs surgical logit rectification, complemented by a geometrically grounded Foreground Logit Orthogonal Enhancement (FLOE) loss to enforce rigorous feature disentanglement. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-1K demonstrate that HICAT consistently improves over matched baselines across diverse architectures (CNNs and ViTs) while significantly reducing the robust generalization gap.

Zhiming Luo, Kejia Zhang, Yingxin Lai +3

Department of Artificial Intelligence, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China · Department of Computer Science, Emory University, GA, USA · College of Information Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China

Adversarial Training Adversarial Robustness Spurious Correlation Robustness Causal Inference

Jun 2, 2026stat.ML

Privacy-Robust Incrementality Measurement for Advertising Systems under Signal Loss

Advertising platforms use randomized lift tests to measure incrementality, but privacy-preserving reporting systems degrade the observed signal through match-rate loss, linkability loss, attribution-window loss, aggregation-threshold suppression, randomized reporting noise, and segment-heterogeneous signal loss. This paper formulates privacy-constrained advertising measurement as a robust causal decision problem under the mentioned signal losses. Given a randomized experiment and an ambiguity set for privacy-induced degradation, the framework projects the observation-compatible fiber of clean/unfiltered experimental worlds onto the incrementality functional and returns certified, rejected, and unresolved decisions. The main result gives a sharp decision frontier. Reports outside the frontier support uniformly valid certification or rejection, whereas reports inside it contain too little information for any method to uniformly distinguish above-threshold incrementality from non-incrementality. Supporting results give finite-sample certification, sample-complexity guarantees, a minimax lower bound showing that signal loss reduces effective information, and a reporting-granularity tradeoff. On 2.0M Criteo Uplift rows and the 64K-row Hillstrom email experiment, clean conversion lift is positive in both datasets, with lifts 0.00112 and 0.00495, respectively. Population certification survives mild degradation in Criteo and severe degradation in Hillstrom, while all considered finite-sample stress settings in both datasets remain unresolved after simultaneous uncertainty and reporting noise are included. Overall, the research contributes a decision-theoretic layer for privacy-aware incrementality measurement whose output is the strongest causal-claim justified by degraded ads signals.

Prashant Shekhar, Caroline Howard

Department of Mathematics Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL, USA

Online Advertising Partial Identification Causal Inference Causal Intervention Privacy-Utility Tradeoff

Jun 2, 2026cs.LG

Tailoring Strictly Proper Scoring Rules for Downstream Tasks: An Application to Causal Inference

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near

0

and

1

often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

Roman Plaud, Alexandre Perez-Lebel, Antoine Saillenfest +4

Institut Polytechnique de Paris · Onepoint, France · Fundamental Technologies +2

Inverse Probability Weighting Causal Effect Estimation Proper Scoring Rules Causal Inference

Jun 2, 2026cs.AI

Do Real-World Datasets Contain Natural Experiments? An Empirical Study Using Causal Feature Selection

In nature, events that affect some individuals or groups but not others constitute an implicit intervention and are known as natural experiments. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic was an intervention by the coronavirus on the sub-population infected with COVID. We ask, do natural experiments occur in existing real-world datasets? If yes, how should we treat them? To detect natural experiments in data, we use causal discovery to recover the underlying causal graph and perform feature selection based on causal links. If downstream performance improves by treating the data as interventional rather than observational, we argue that this suggests the dataset contains natural experiments. We first validate this hypothesis by simulating datasets with and without natural experiments using synthetic graphs. We then perform a systematic empirical evaluation on a large suite of real-world datasets. Our results indicate that real-world datasets do contain natural experiments and we can take advantage of those natural experiments to improve model performance using causal inference. Our work represents the initial foray into this area, offering a preliminary exploration within a limited scope.

Gautam Gare, John Galeotti, Michael Mozer +2

Carnegie Mellon University · Google DeepMind

Causal Inference Causal Intervention

May 30, 2026cs.LG

Extending Causal Metamodeling to a non-Markovian Queue

Metamodels for discrete-event simulations approximate the behavior of simulation models without running expensive simulations. Prior work introduced modular dynamic Bayesian networks (MDBNs) -- a class of metamodels that can estimate a range of probabilistic and causal queries (PCQs) using a single, trained model -- but the method was limited to Markovian systems. In this paper, we initiate an extension of MDBNs to non-Markovian queues by approximating non-exponential distributions using phase-type distributions. This approach raises novel challenges, including balancing metamodeling accuracy and tractability when choosing the number of phases, efficiently learning metamodel parameters, and choosing the sampling interval that is used to approximate a continuous-time simulation by a discrete-time MDBN. We provide preliminary solutions to these challenges, yielding the first causal metamodeling technique for non-Markovian systems. Experiments on a G/M/1 queue demonstrate that the MDBN can produce accurate answers to PCQs with orders-of-magnitude speedup of inference times relative to direct simulation.

Pracheta Amaranath, Anant Bhide, David Jensen +1

Manning College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA, USA

Surrogate Modeling Bayesian Networks Causal Inference

May 29, 2026cs.LG

Perturbative methods for non-parametric instrumental variable

We introduce a perturbative approach for nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) estimation. By drawing inspiration from perturbation theory in physics, we extend standard kernel ridge methods with systematic higher perturbation order corrections that significantly improve estimation accuracy. Spectrally, the perturbation introduces mixing between different eigenmodes of the expectation integral operator, which becomes especially useful when the integral equation is ill-defined. One source for such ill-definedness can be the curse of dimensionality. Our method performs across various dimensionality regimes, particularly when the dimensionality parameter

β

which is defined through the number of samples

n

and dimension

d

as

n^β= d

, becomes large. Experimental results show that our first-order perturbative corrections can reduce prediction error by up to 99% in high-dimensional ill-defined cases (

β> 0.7

) compared to standard ridge regression approaches. The performance improvement is maintained across a wide range of dimensions, with the advantage becoming more pronounced as dimensionality increases.

Wei Bu, Arthur Gretton

Harvard University, Northeastern University, Physics Department · University College London.

Kernel Ridge Regression Instrumental Variable Estimation Causal Inference Inverse Problems

May 29, 2026cs.AI

Evaluating Bivariate Causal Statements Based on Mutual Compatibility

For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess. We develop methods for evaluating collections of

\binom{n}{2}

bivariate causal statements over a set of

n

variables. In the setting of acyclic linear statements, any such collection can be extended to a unique multivariate causal model, but we argue that this induced model is implausible if it imposes substantial additional confounding to explain observed correlations. We introduce a compatibility score that quantifies this notion of plausibility, notably without relying on the faithfulness assumption. Additionally, we define an incompatibility score for purely graphical bivariate causal statements, based on global consistency constraints that are derived from acyclicity and faithfulness assumptions. We give theoretical and empirical evidence that both scores can successfully distinguish correct from incorrect causal statements in generic settings. Moreover, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our methods by analyzing causal claims made by large language models. Our work aims to provide a foundation for assessing the reliability of causal information derived from human experts or artificial intelligence in settings where alternative forms of validation are unavailable.

Erik Jahn, Dominik Janzing

1California Institute of Technology, USA · 2Amazon Research Tübingen, Germany

Structural Causal Models Causal Reasoning Causal Inference

May 29, 2026cs.AI

Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events

Building on recent formalizations of root cause analysis for rare events (``outliers'') in structural equation models, we propose a formal definition of a causal pathway and discuss its testable implications. We identify conditions under which these implications depend only on a causal abstraction defined by the pathway of rare events, rather than on the full causal graph of the underlying system. Accordingly, we introduce an abstraction of causal structure to pathways of rare events that bridges simple verbal causal explanations and detailed causal modeling.

Anahita Haghighat, Dominik Janzing

Independent · Amazon Research, Tübingen, Germany

Structural Causal Models Causal Abstraction Causal Inference Causal Explanation Root Cause Analysis

May 28, 2026cs.CV

YoCausal: How Far is Video Generation from World Model? A Causality Perspective

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

You-Zhe Xie, Yu-Hsuan Li, Jie-Ying Lee +3

National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University · Shanda AI Research Tokyo

Video Diffusion Models Causal World Models Video Generation Causal Inference Causal Reasoning in Videos Video Generation Evaluation

May 28, 2026cs.LG

Test Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning

Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) has shown promise in causal discovery by framing it as a supervised learning problem. However, it suffers from significant out-of-distribution generalization challenges. We reveal three limitations of previous SCL practices: a significant performance gap between synthetic benchmarks and real-world data, fragility to distribution shifts, and failure in compositional generalization, collectively questioning its real-world applicability. To address this, we propose Test-Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning (TTT-SCL), a novel framework that dynamically generates training sets explicitly aligned with any specific test instance. We demonstrate the correlation between TTT-SCL and score-based methods, and design an efficient module for generating training sets based on the classic scoring function. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, pseudo-real and real-world datasets demonstrate that TTT-SCL significantly outperforms existing SCL and traditional causal discovery methods.

Zizhen Deng, Jiaru Zhang, Rui Ding +5

Peking University · The work was done during his internship at Microsoft. · Shanghai Jiao Tong University +2

OOD Generalization Causal Discovery Test-Time Training Causal Inference

May 28, 2026cs.CL

Predicting Causal Effects from Natural Language Queries using Structured Representations

Randomized controlled trials are a cornerstone of medicine and the social sciences as they enable reliable estimates of causal effects. However, they are costly and time-consuming to conduct, motivating interest in predicting causal effects from existing experimental evidence. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on knowledge-intensive tasks, raising the question of whether these models can be used for forecasting causal effect sizes. To investigate this, we introduce Query2Effect, a new large-scale benchmark consisting of more than 72,000 natural language questions aligned with experiment descriptions, created to simulate realistic information-seeking scenarios by varying query specificity along dimensions of implicitness, abstraction, and ambiguity. We then propose a two-step framework that first generates a synthetic structured representation of a query before predicting effect size using a supervised encoder model. Experiments show that finetuning plays a crucial role in improving prediction performance, with absolute error reducing by -27% up to -71% compared to prompted out-of-the-box LLMs, and that our two-step framework is beneficial for out-of-domain generalization, highlighting the benefits of separating semantic interpretation from numerical effect estimation.

Giuliano Martinelli, Piriyakorn Piriyatamwong, Abelardo Carlos Martinez Lorenzo +7

1The World Bank Group · University of Oxford · 3New York University

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Semantic Parsing

May 26, 2026cs.LG

Causal Risk Minimization for High-Dimensional Treatments

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains. However, classical causal estimators tend to assume that all possible interventions are observed, which is infeasible when interventions vary widely, for instance, in the space of all text strings. We adapt a well-known approach of recasting causal inference as a learning problem, to address high-dimensional treatment spaces. Specifically, under standard assumptions like no unobserved confounding, we show that causal error decomposes into a series of moment-balancing errors of increasing order, and design objectives that directly improve causal estimation. We also show how to project the effect of a high-dimensional treatment onto lower-dimensional treatment attributes, which allows a single model to answer several causal questions without additional attribute-specific training. We empirically evaluate our estimators in settings with high-dimensional continuous, discrete, and text treatments, the last of which used a semi-synthetic dataset of Amazon Reviews. Our experiments demonstrate the benefit of higher-order balance error optimization and competitive performance of projected causal estimates with attribute-specific estimators.

Nikita Dhawan, Arnav Paruthi, Andrew Kim +3

University of Toronto, Vector Institute · University of Toronto · Vanguard

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference

May 26, 2026cs.LG

Towards Continuous-time Causal Foundation Models

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated \emph{once per observation gap}, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A

2 \times 2

encoder

\times

integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency

p < 1/256

) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

Dennis Thumm, Ruben Wiedemann, Ying Chen

National University of Singapore · Department of Mathematics, Centre for Quantitative Finance, Risk Management Institute, National University of Singapore. · Imperial College London

Irregular Time-Series Modeling Causal Foundation Models Stochastic Differential Equations Prior-Data Fitted Networks Causal Inference Time-Series Foundation Models+1

May 26, 2026stat.ML

Stop Suppressing the Tail: Causal Inference for Extreme Events

Estimating how an outcome responds to a continuous treatment (the Average Dose-Response Function, or ADRF) is a core causal-inference primitive. However, when outcomes possess heavy tails, standard robust double machine learning (DML) deliberately suppresses these extremes to stabilize the bulk average. In high-stakes settings, such as financial returns or climate losses, this omitted 1-in-1000 extreme event is the actual target quantity. Furthermore, current methods that read the tail from a model's residuals suffer from circular dependence, causing tail shape inferences to shift drastically based solely on whether the core estimator is switched between Huber and Welsch. The research proposes an ADRF estimator that emits a structured tail-shape output alongside the standard point estimate. Its tail diagnostic (PDHTE+JK) evaluates the per-treatment tail shape from the outcome centered by a pilot median, successfully breaking the circular dependence and rendering the diagnostic invariant to the choice of core method. The output encompasses four treatment-conditional quantities: tail shape

\hatξ(t)

, deep-tail return levels

\hat{Q}_α(t)

, conditional shortfalls

\hat{S}_α(t)

, the recovered mean ADRF, and an explicit refusal mechanism that declines extrapolation when extreme-value modeling is unsupported by the data. Compared to kernel-weighted quantile regression (QR), the proposed estimator reduces deep-tail (

α=0.001

) return-level MAE by 11% and conditional-shortfall MAE by 25.5% across a heavy-tailed panel. It also achieves a 20-29% MAE reduction in sample-scarce regimes (

n\le2000

). On freMTPL2 motor-insurance claims, it successfully triggered an explicit extrapolation refusal on the log-claim scale, which neither QR nor loss-only DML can produce.

Eichi Uehara

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Heavy-Tailed Distributions Extreme Value Theory

May 26, 2026stat.ML

Calibrated Inference for the Conditional Average Treatment Effect in the Few-Placebo Regime via Gaussian Processes

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by a calibrated uncertainty interval. We study the few-placebo regime, in which one treatment arm is much smaller than the other, as arises in unequal-allocation trials and small-holdout

A/B

tests. The standard estimator in this setting is the X-Learner, and a natural way to obtain credible intervals is to make its second stage Bayesian. We show that these intervals under-cover: they contain the true effect less often than their nominal level. We trace this to a structural cause the X-Learner's regression target inherits the bias of a nuisance model fitted to the small arm, so the posterior is centered away from the true effect and we find that the standard remedy, regressing an orthogonal doubly-robust score, is also unreliable here, since the regime's limited overlap leaves the estimator either highly variable or, once stabilized, biased once more. Both consequences reflect a pattern that extends beyond causal inference: a separately estimated variance is attached to a point estimate of a hard-to-learn quantity, and the point estimate's bias is not captured by that variance. We propose GP-CATE, which models each arm's outcome surface with a Gaussian process, so the scarce arm's uncertainty enters the posterior directly rather than as an unmodelled bias. Across synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks, GP-CATE attains calibrated coverage where the estimators we compare against including Causal Forest and BART do not, at the cost of intervals that are appropriately wide when the data are uninformative.

Eichi Uehara

AFLO

Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Causal Inference Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation Uncertainty Calibration

May 26, 2026stat.ME

Confounder Detection via Treatment Intent: A New Observational Study Design

Understanding the effects of interventions is central to scientific progress, with randomized controlled trials (RCTs) regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in many applied fields. However, RCTs are costly, time-consuming, and often constrained by ethical or practical limitations, motivating the need for causal methods able to draw conclusions from observational data. While such data is collected at ever larger scale, making its use for causal inference is often hindered by the fact that not all variables affecting treatment allocation and the outcome are observed: an issue known as unobserved confounding. In this paper, we introduce a new study design called confounder detection via treatment intent. The idea is to query a human expert who makes treatment decisions, and ask them to compare pairs of units proposed by a principled matching strategy, with the goal of eliciting unobserved variables that explain why treatment decisions differ. We provide a theoretical basis for such a procedure, ascertaining conditions under which such a study design may elicit unobserved confounders. Building on this newly established foundations, we study treatment effects of interventions in the intensive care unit (ICU). First, we show empirical evidence strongly indicating that electronic health records (EHRs) collected in ICUs are subject to unobserved confounding. By using clinical text notes as a proxy for physicians' knowledge and leveraging natural language processing, we provide a proof of concept for our methodology in a semi-synthetic environment with a known ground truth.

Drago Plecko, Patrik Okanovic, Torsten Hoefler +1

Department of Statistics & Data Science UCLA · Department of Computer Science ETH Zurich · Causal AI Lab Columbia University

Causal Inference

May 25, 2026stat.ML

Beyond Differences: Doubly Robust Meta-Learners for Ratio-Based Treatment Effects

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE

τ(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]

is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a log-linear parametric structure or apply generic regression without robustness guarantees for this functional. We introduce the Q-Learner, which decomposes

τ(x)

into a product of two odds ratios, reducing ratio-CATE estimation for binary outcomes to two propensity classification tasks. We further derive doubly robust augmentations for both S/T- and Q-style ratio learners and characterize their distinct robustness properties. In benchmarks on seven RCT datasets, the Q-Learner is the most consistently competitive method in low-conversion regimes, where its propensity-only construction sidesteps the imbalanced regression that hurts outcome-based estimators. On four observational datasets, where propensity must be estimated and confounding cannot be ruled out, the DR learners introduced here decisively come out on top, making them practitioners' natural default for confounded observational data.

Michael Fuchs, Dominik Kreiss

Actuarial Department Allianz Versicherungs-AG Munich, Germany

Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Causal Inference Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation Doubly Robust Estimation Robust Estimation

May 25, 2026cs.LG

Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation

Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here, we argue that many central questions in LLM development and evaluation are inherently causal: What is the effect of adding a data domain during pretraining? How do annotator preferences change when LLMs generate text in a different style? Should a prompt be routed to a larger or smaller model given inference cost constraints? In general, causal methods are well-suited to such settings where interventions change outcomes but, surprisingly, are underrepresented in LLM development. Our contribution is threefold: (1) We explain how causal methods can help develop modern LLM development and evaluation: LLM development relies heavily on logged data, which are often subject to confounding and distribution shifts; evaluation uses learned but potentially biased judges; and deployment environments are non-stationary. These conditions make purely predictive approaches fragile and create opportunities for principled identification and estimation methods from causal inference. (2) We further map opportunities for causal methods in the entire LLM development pipeline, including pretraining, alignment, routing, agentic workflows, and evaluation. (3) We discuss new research opportunities around leveraging causal methods for LLM development and evaluation. Overall, we argue that causal methods are potentially underutilized for the LLM development and evaluation pipeline, despite the fact that such methods can ensure a reliable and scientifically grounded design.

Dennis Frauen, Marie Brockschmidt, Konstantin Hess +10

MCML & LMU Munich, Munich, Germany · CMU, Pittsburgh, US · Imperial College London, London, UK +1

LLM Evaluation Causal Inference LLM Post-Training Causal Interventions in Language Models

May 25, 2026stat.ME

Geometry Adaptive Counterfactual Distribution Learning with Diffusion-Guided Smoothing

We study counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes whose counterfactual law may concentrate near lower-dimensional structure. Standard isotropic smoothing treats all ambient directions equally, leading to unfavorable scaling and unstable local inference. We propose two diffusion-guided estimators based on semiparametric debiasing: diffusion-informed smoothing for counterfactual densities and diffusion-informed score smoothing for counterfactual scores. The estimators combine causal nuisance adjustment with geometry-adaptive localization driven by diffusion score information, removing first-order nuisance bias while aligning smoothing with local outcome geometry. We establish asymptotic expansions, risk bounds, and inference procedures for smoothed density and score-based targets, with ambient density inference obtained under additional approximation conditions. Under structural geometry conditions, the leading stochastic error is governed by an effective dimension induced by the diffusion-guided kernel, rather than by the ambient dimension. Semi-synthetic experiments based on CelebA show steeper error decay for geometry-adaptive methods, supporting the proposed effective-dimension theory.

Kwangho Kim

Department of Statistics, Korea University

Semiparametric Inference Causal Inference Density Estimation Counterfactual Learning

May 24, 2026cs.LG

Learning Treatment Effects during Resource Allocation via Priority-Queue Randomization

Public service programs often allocate limited resources under uncertainty about their benefits, creating a need for randomization to support credible evaluation. In practice, however, applicants commonly enter waitlists where resources are prioritized toward individuals judged to have higher need through tiered priority queues, making direct randomization difficult. Motivated by this, we develop an experimental design framework for learning treatment effects while treating those most in need where incoming applicants are randomized into priority queues based on their assessed risk scores. Treatments are then provided across queues in priority order and first-in-first-out within queue as budget becomes available. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we characterize what causal effects are identified under this priority-queue allocation. When arrivals are exogenous, treatments are conditionally randomized, and hence standard estimands are identified; when arrivals are endogenous, queue randomization instead provides an instrument for treatment, identifying local treatment effects induced by the queuing process. Second, we develop optimized queue-assignment designs that trade off statistical efficiency against prioritizing higher-need applicants. We show in the process that, despite dependence in treatment assignments induced by the design, usual iid efficiency bounds remain well-justified design objectives. We illustrate the proposed designs using data from a housing allocation program in a large U.S. county.

JungHo Lee, Johnna Sundberg, Pim Welle +1

1Carnegie Mellon University · 2Allegheny County Department of Human Services

Causal Effect Estimation Instrumental Variable Estimation Causal Inference

May 24, 2026cs.LG

Abduction-Deduction Entanglement: Domain Generalization via Representation Transplants

Prediction models trained under the source distribution do not generalize well to a different target distribution. A valid inference about an unseen data distribution must be anchored by the invariance of certain causal mechanisms that generate the source and target data, however, these structural invariances are non-identifiable from the source data alone. Under mild causal assumptions about the data, we show that the optimal prediction in the target is in fact partially identifiable by the source distribution. The result rests on a simple observation: In any domain, the optimal prediction can be factorized into what we call a pair of abduction and deduction maps, where the abduction map makes inference about some unobserved variables (possibly confounders) from the observed variables and the deduction map predicts the label using both the observed and inferred quantities. Access to large source data pins down the optimal prediction, thus constrains the valid abduction-deduction ensembles that produce it -- a non-identifiability that we call the abduction-deduction entanglement. To leverage this, we parameterize the constrained family using what we call a representation transplant, that is a specific linear transformation in the representation space that manipulates the abduction content of the representation while retaining the deduction component. Invariance of the causal mechanism generating the label implies existence of an invariant deduction map between source and target. Thus, we can search the space of plausible target distributions via a parametric transplant. We use this scheme in a learner-adversary game that, under an idealistic optimization, provably terminates with the learner having the minimax-optimal target prediction. Evaluations verify the theory, showing that the method is competitive in DG benchmarks.

Kasra Jalaldoust, Elias Bareinboum

Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, NY 10027, USA

Domain Generalization OOD Generalization Cross-Domain Generalization Causal Inference

May 24, 2026cs.CL

Towards a Universal Causal Reasoner

Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

Qirun Dai, Xiao Liu, Jiawei Zhang +3

1The University of Chicago · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Causal Reasoning in Language Models Causal Reasoning Causal Inference Synthetic Data Generation for Language Models

May 23, 2026cs.LG

Measuring Alignment-Induced Activation Shifts Correctly: A Template-Controlled Difference-in-Differences Protocol

Comparing a model's internal activations before and after alignment is a natural way to ask what safety training changes: one forms the matrix of paired aligned-minus-base activations on safety-relevant inputs and reads off its effective rank or top direction. We show the obvious way to form this matrix is confounded. The aligned model is evaluated under a chat template the base model never saw, so the naive difference conflates the alignment shift with chat formatting. We introduce a four-variant decomposition of the modification matrix (naive, template-controlled, within-aligned, and difference-in-differences, DiD) that separates the two effects. Template control alone removes a 2.0-3.9x inflation of the measured effective rank across Llama-3.1-8B, Gemma-2-9B, and Qwen-2.5-7B; the DiD contrast is what recovers the refusal direction of Arditi et al. (2024), lifting its cosine alignment from 0.18-0.39 to 0.50-0.86. Projection-ablation across the three families confirms the recovered subspace is behaviorally active and that singular-value order is not causal order. We validate the protocol on a controlled testbed and distill it into measurement recommendations for activation-difference studies of alignment.

Yuki Nakamura

The Open University of Japan

LLM Alignment Mechanistic Interpretability Causal Inference

May 23, 2026cs.AI

Hypothesis Generation and Inductive Inference in Children and Language Models

Real world decision-making requires constructing mental models under uncertainty over evidence, over the underlying causal rules, and over the state of the world itself. Which computational principles underpin human inference under such conditions, and do LLM-based agents exhibit similar behavior given matching constraints? We address these questions using an inductive inference Box Task in which participants, human children and LLM-based agents, infer a latent cause through sequential interaction with an uncertain environment. We formalize this task as program induction with Bayesian particle-based inference, admitting two complementary interpretations: (1) as a constraint satisfaction process over hypotheses, and (2) as a program synthesis problem in which hypotheses are executable programs evaluated against evidence. Using the constraint-based formulation, we show that children's behavior is best explained by a combination of subjective evidence reliability and online hypothesis generation, accounting for both their evidence-seeking patterns and their dissociation between task completion and rule generalization. Using the program synthesis formulation, we treat LLM-based agents as model organisms: controllable systems that allow systematic manipulation of task conditions. Across backends, LLM-based agents replicate children's responses to changes in evidence reliability and observability, including discounting unreliable evidence, seeking to resolve partial information, and dissociating between task completion and causal generalization. At the same time, LLM-based agents tend to over-observe and over-comply with instructions relative to children. These results suggest that while children and LLM-based agents adapt similarly to environmental structure, their information-seeking behavior exhibits distinct underlying costs and inductive biases.

Jeffrey Qin, Wasu Top Piriyakulkij, Zhuangfei Gao +4

Computer Science University of Waterloo · Department of Computer Science Cornell University · Department of Computer Science Dalhousie University +1

Bayesian Inference Scientific Hypothesis Generation Causal Inference LLM Reasoning

May 23, 2026cs.LG

Treatment Effect Estimation with Differentiated Networked Effect on Graph Data

Estimating individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational graph data is crucial for decision-making in the fields such as commerce and medicine. This task is challenging due to interference, where individual outcomes can be influenced by the treatments and covariates of their neighbors. Existing methods attempt to model such interference for accurate ITE estimation. However, a critical issue is often overlooked: differentiated networked effect (DNE), an effect caused by local networks consisting of neighbors with varying importance and scales. Capturing DNE is vital; otherwise, we will end up with imprecise ITE estimation due to an erroneous characterization of interference, which can result in misguided decisions. To address this challenge, we propose a novel interference modeling mechanism that incorporates two partial attention mechanisms and a message amplifier. The partial attention mechanisms automatically estimate the importance of different neighbors in contributing to interference, while the message amplifier adjusts the results of the interference modeling mechanism based on the scale of neighbors, all of which enables the model to capture DNE. Experiments on three real-world graphs demonstrate that our methods outperform existing approaches for ITE estimation from graph data, which corroborates the importance of explicitly capturing DNE.

Xiaofeng Lin, Han Bao, Hisashi Kashima

Kyoto University Kyoto, Japan · The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo, Japan · Tohoku University Sendai, Japan +1

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation

May 22, 2026cs.LG

Leveraging Foundation Models for Causal Generative Modeling

Causal generative modeling is essential for developing reliable and transparent AI systems capable of counterfactual reasoning. While existing approaches focus on integrating causal constraints during the training of generative models, they often lack a unified framework to leverage the zero-shot reasoning capabilities of pretrained foundation models. We introduce FM-CGM, a modular framework for end-to-end visual causal reasoning using pretrained foundation models. FM-CGM formalizes the causal pipeline through three core components: a concept extractor, a concept manipulator, and a counterfactual generator. By leveraging a large reasoning model for causal inference and a text-to-image diffusion model for generation, our approach enables zero-shot causal discovery, intervention, and counterfactual generation. We then develop Causal Semantic Guidance (CSG), a cross-attention-based mechanism that ensures semantic interventions propagate to descendant concepts while preserving invariant regions. We empirically show that our approach can identify plausible causal structures and is suitable for faithful counterfactual image generation.

Aneesh Komanduri, Xintao Wu

University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA

Causal Counterfactual Generation Image Generation Causal Discovery Generative Modeling Causal Inference

May 22, 2026stat.ML

Causality as the Statistical Conscience of Artificial Intelligence: From Pearl's Ladder to Trustworthy Machines

Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invariant Risk Minimization as a family of Causal Statistical Estimators, each identifying interventional distributions under different assumptions. Third, three AI failure modes (hallucination in large language models, reward hacking in reinforcement learning from human feedback, and degradation under distribution shift) are manifestations of causal blindness, each admitting a principled statistical remedy. Trustworthy AI is, at its core, a problem of causal statistics. The statistical community is not merely equipped to solve it -- it is the only community with the foundational tools to do so rigorously.

Ernest Fokoué

School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science Rochester Institute of TechnologyMay Rochester, New York 14623, USA

Causal Inference Responsible AI