Chance-Constrained Optimization

Fine-tuning large language models on new objectives can improve helpfulness, instruction following, or domain-specific performance, but it can also induce regressions on safety-critical prompts. Existing safety-preserving fine-tuning methods typically control average safety loss or use weighted auxiliary penalties, which can obscure rare but severe failures. We propose a chance-constrained formulation for safety-preserving fine-tuning that limits the fraction of safety examples whose degradation relative to a reference model exceeds a prescribed threshold. Because the resulting empirical chance constraint contains a discontinuous indicator, we introduce a differentiable majorization of the violation rate, yielding a tractable conservative constraint. We then develop a constraint-aware gradient descent method that treats the majorized constraint as a safe set in parameter space and minimally modifies the fine-tuning direction to preserve feasibility. The resulting update admits a closed form and produces a tail-aware safety correction that emphasizes examples near or above the degradation threshold. We conduct an extensive set of experiments on harmful fine-tuning across three different tasks and three models and show that our approach consistently outperforms the baselines that exist in the literature. These results suggest that safety preservation in LLM fine-tuning is better viewed as a reliability-constrained optimization problem than as average-risk regularization.

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

Scheduling activities in business processes can improve efficiency (e.g., reduce makespan), but is challenging because the exact sequence of activities required to complete a case is often uncertain due to decisions based on data that emerges during execution. Nevertheless, probabilistic information regarding such decisions can often be estimated or derived from historical execution logs, and can help anticipate which execution paths are likely to lead to successful completion. Planning with particular execution paths affects feasibility, i.e., the probability of successful completion, and the expected number of superfluous activities that are planned but never executed. We frame the problem as a chance-constrained optimization problem and present two formulations: A decomposed approach with two stages, a planning stage that minimizes the expected number of superfluous activities subject to a feasibility constraint, and a scheduling stage that minimizes the makespan over the planned activities; and an integrated approach that combines planning and scheduling into a single formulation. Evaluation on two real-world and one synthetic dataset shows that the integrated approach yields superior makespans but is intractable at scale, while the decomposed approach scales to large settings.

Many operational decisions are sequences of interventions under a cumulative resource limit, such as a maintenance schedule within a crew-hour budget. Choosing among them calls for the outcome and the cumulative cost each would produce, counterfactual quantities identified from observational data. Two strategies with the same expected cost can exceed the budget at very different rates, so constraining the mean does not bound how often an overrun occurs. Prior two-step architectures, recently extended to continuous doses, constrain the mean cost rather than its tail and allocate at a single decision point. Methods that do bound a cost tail take its distribution from a specified model rather than identifying it from data. We present a predict-then-optimize framework. In the prediction step, any estimator returning an outcome value and a cost distribution supplies what the decision rule consumes, so the predictor is interchangeable. In the optimization step, a chance-constrained selection over a finite candidate set bounds the probability that the cumulative cost exceeds the budget. That tail does not decompose across stages, so each strategy is scored whole. Sweeping the tolerated violation probability traces a safety-utility frontier, and distribution-free finite-sample bounds cover violation and outcome shortfall. Four of five environments, spanning clinical treatment and equipment maintenance, supply exact counterfactual ground truth; the fifth carries real outcomes from a digital-health micro-randomized trial. Across them, the rule holds the budget where a point-estimate rule overruns it, at an outcome cost the frontier makes explicit. All code is available at https://github.com/mfriendly/counterfactual-chance-selection

A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken. Empirical risk minimization (ERM) controls average loss but not this failure directly, while calibration, uncertainty estimation, conformal risk control, and selective prediction methods target related reliability properties rather than bounding the joint failure event during training. We propose ReliableNet, which constrains the Joint Confident-Wrong (JCW) probability, the probability that a prediction is simultaneously confident and incorrect, below a user-specified risk budget $α\in(0,1)$. We formulate this as a chance-constrained ERM problem, use a conservative smooth inner approximation whose population feasibility implies the original JCW constraint. Across four tabular and two image datasets, ReliableNet is the only method certified within the JCW budget for every dataset and seed in distribution, when compared against baselines spanning ERM, post-hoc calibration, conformal risk control, and selective prediction. Under demographic, ambiguity, spurious-correlation, novel-class, and covariate shifts, it achieves the lowest empirical JCW among the compared methods while remaining very competitive in accuracy, coverage, calibration, and selective prediction. Risk-coverage results further indicate that ReliableNet achieves better selective ranking than the benchmark methods on most datasets. Overall, ReliableNet provides a principled approach to trustworthy classification.

In this paper, we consider stochastic optimal control problems with infinite-horizon joint chance constraints. By means of an appropriate state augmentation, we reformulate the original problem as a constrained Markov decision process, in which both the cost and the constraint function exhibit an additive structure. We then prove that this formulation enjoys strong duality, thereby enabling us to reformulate the problem as an equivalent unconstrained one in the Lagrange dual framework. We propose a dual-ascent algorithm to solve the resulting problem and show that it converges to a deterministic Markov policy defined over the augmented state space that is both optimal and feasible. To accommodate continuous state-input spaces, we propose a dedicated learning algorithm to approximate the value function in an offline training setting, thereby significantly reducing the computational complexity of the online control phase. We then test our approach on a numerical example and demonstrate its effectiveness compared to online predictive control methods in terms of performance and computational complexity.

We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Finite-support distributionally robust (FDR) formulations, widely used in data-driven robust optimization, robustify over empirical mixture support points and therefore primarily stress-test the fitted nominal mixture. This can be insufficient when service reliability depends on structural misspecification of the nominal mixture-support parameters. To address this limitation, we describe the ambiguity set of distributions by developing a novel formulation of a Wasserstein-2 metric that uses the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) metric over probability measures with finite second moments. Unlike FDR, which generally sets finitely many empirical support points a priori, the proposed ambiguity set allows the worst-case distribution to endogenously determine both how many mixture components receive mass and where their means and covariances lie within a continuous support. For the resulting ambiguity set, under mild regularity conditions, we prove strong duality for the inner worst-case chance-constraint problem and derive its semi-infinite reformulation. We then develop an adaptive cutting-surface algorithm, which endogenously determines the locations of mixture components receiving mass, and the mean and covariances of the Gaussian distributions at these locations. The algorithm attains any prescribed optimality gap in finitely many iterations, while a block-alternating local search identifies new components. A case study using the electric-vehicle charging-station energy-allocation problem demonstrates the framework's practical value in achieving any reliability targets. CDR also induces structural changes in energy allocations, unlike FDR, whose allocations remain close to the nominal solution.

We consider defining risk probability in stochastic control problems under distribution ambiguity. Current approaches for chance-constrained control typically assume that the true state distribution is known and Gaussian distributed. These assumptions are not amenable to many real-world engineering applications where system dynamics are nonlinear and only approximately modeled. In this work, we define a distribution ambiguity set and, with a variational expression for exponential integrals, bound the expected risk value under an unknown distribution that resides within a relative entropy distance of a nominal Gaussian reference distribution. Our bound recovers the reference risk value in the zero-divergence limit. A method is presented to determine the relative entropy distance defining the ambiguity set that is a function of the reference covariance evolution and second-order dynamical truncation errors. The resulting contributions provide a framework for handling distributional ambiguity in nonlinear covariance steering problems. A stochastic spacecraft guidance example is presented to demonstrate our contributions.

Neural combinatorial optimization (NCO) offers a promising alternative to traditional heuristic-based methods for solving complex graph optimization problems by proposing to learn heuristics through data. This class of problems frequently arises in automation, as it can be used to model a variety of applications. While NCO has been extensively studied for deterministic combinatorial optimization problems, there are only a few works that aim to solve stochastic combinatorial optimization problems. In this work, we present N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance cOnstraints to solve the Stochastic Orienteering Problem (SOP) without the use of hand-crafted heuristics. By integrating a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, the model optimizes path selection under uncertainty, effectively balancing exploration and exploitation. Empirical results demonstrate that our method generalizes well across diverse SOP instances, achieving competitive performance compared to the state-of-the-art mixed-integer linear program (MILP) for the task. The proposed approach reduces human effort in heuristic design while enabling adaptive and efficient decision-making in uncertain environments.

Open-pit mine scheduling is a complex real-world optimization problem that involves uncertain economic values and dynamically changing resource capacities. Evolutionary algorithms are particularly effective in these scenarios, as they can easily adapt to uncertain and changing environments. However, uncertainty and dynamic changes are often studied in isolation in real-world problems. In this paper, we study a dynamic chance-constrained open-pit mine scheduling problem in which block economic values are stochastic and mining and processing capacities vary over time. We adopt a bi-objective evolutionary formulation that simultaneously maximizes expected discounted profit and minimizes its standard deviation. To address dynamic changes, we propose a diversity-based change response mechanism that repairs a subset of infeasible solutions and introduces additional feasible solutions whenever a change is detected. We evaluate the effectiveness of this mechanism across four multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and compare it with a baseline re-evaluation-based change-response strategy. Experimental results on six mining instances demonstrate that the proposed approach consistently outperforms the baseline methods across different uncertainty levels and change frequencies.

We propose conformal predictive programming (CPP), a framework to solve chance constrained optimization problems, i.e., optimization problems with constraints that are functions of random variables. CPP utilizes samples from these random variables along with the quantile lemma - central to conformal prediction - to transform the chance constrained optimization problem into a deterministic problem with a quantile reformulation. CPP's main strength is an independent calibration step that provides a posteriori guarantees for the solution of this problem that are of conditional and marginal nature otherwise. These guarantees even apply in settings when assumptions required for obtaining standard a priori guarantees (e.g., in scenario optimization or sample average approximation) are unavailable, difficult to compute, or conservative. Another strength of CPP is that it can easily support different variants of conformal prediction which have been (or will be) proposed within the conformal prediction community. To illustrate this, we present robust CPP to deal with distribution shifts in the random variables and Mondrian CPP to deal with class conditional chance constraints. In a series of case studies, we show the validity of the aforementioned approaches, and illustrate the advantage of CPP as compared to scenario approach.