Confidence Estimation in Language Models

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24 papers in the last four weeks, up 500% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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Jun 23, 2026cs.CL

CALIBER: Calibrating Confidence Before and After Reasoning in Language Models

Reasoning language models are increasingly asked not only to answer difficult questions, but also to estimate their likelihood of success. Existing methods typically elicit confidence only once: either before thinking or after answering. We argue that confidence in reasoning models is state-dependent: before thinking, confidence should estimate the chance of the model correctly solving the prompt, while after thinking it should predict whether the realized answer is likely to be correct. This distinction determines the appropriate supervision target: prompt-level success should supervise confidence estimates made after seeing the prompt, while individual answer-level correctness should supervise confidence estimates made after answering. We introduce CALIBER (Calibration Before and After Reasoning), which elicits both estimates and supervises each with the target matched to its information state. Under this unified protocol, CALIBER reduces Expected Calibration Error (ECE) by 52.5% over the strongest single-confidence baseline on BigMathDigits for the 7B model, while achieving the best Brier score and AUROC, and remains within 2.1 points of the best accuracy. Further, on a larger 30B model, CALIBER achieves the best ECE on BigMathDigits while remaining competitive in Brier score and AUROC. Out of distribution, it achieves the best ECE and Brier score on GPQA and TriviaQA, and remains competitive on SimpleQA. Ablations further show that this position-target alignment is most beneficial under distribution shift where it consistently reduces calibration error across all out-of-distribution benchmarks.

Conor Finlay, Joshua Kurien, Saurabh Dash +2

1Cohere Labs

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation Large Reasoning Models

Jun 20, 2026cs.CL

The Score Granularity Gap in Black-Box LLM Classification: A Comparative Study of Confidence Constructions

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as black-box classifiers in pipelines that automate confident decisions and route uncertain ones to human review. Such selective prediction needs a confidence score that an operator can threshold at a chosen risk level. Prior work asks whether LLM confidence is well calibrated or well ranked; we ask a complementary, deployment-oriented question that has been largely overlooked: at what resolution can the score be thresholded? We call the answer the score granularity gap. Through a controlled comparison of seven ways to build a confidence score, from a single verbalized number, to token probabilities, to querying the model many times and combining the answers, across 25 model-dataset pairs (9 LLMs, 3 benchmarks), we find that single-shot verbalized confidence, once correctly converted to a class probability, ranks cases surprisingly well, yet takes only a handful of distinct values. It therefore offers an operator only a few coarse thresholds, no matter how well it ranks. We show which constructions widen this gap, at what inference cost, and with what effect on ranking, notably that multi-query aggregation helps weak models but can degrade already-strong ones. We translate these trade-offs into concrete deployment guidance.

Ao Sun, Tian Sun, Jiaxing Geng

LLM Evaluation Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Jun 20, 2026cs.CY

Latent Confidence Alignment for LLM Self-Assessment

Confidence calibration in large language models (LLMs) is commonly evaluated by comparing predicted confidence with observed accuracy. However, such approaches do not model item difficulty, making it difficult to interpret discrepancies and to determine whether model confidence reflects genuine self-assessment or is merely a byproduct of the response generation process. To address this, we adopt a Rasch model-based latent ability framework and a metacognitive perspective, and propose Latent Confidence Alignment Error (LCAE) to measure the consistency between model self-assessment and the latent error probability implied by model ability and item difficulty. We further incorporate item difficulty as an external signal with a reasoning mechanism. Experiments on a medical-domain dataset with 20 models show that the proposed approach improves self-assessment quality without affecting model ability, and reveals an association between reliability and inference cost.

Ting-Yu Chen, Tingting Yu, Pei-Cing Huang +3

Department of Information Management National Sun Yat-Sen University Kaohsiung, Taiwan · Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital Kaohsiung Medical University Kaohsiung, Taiwan

LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Self-Assessment Language Model Calibration Metacognition in Language Models

Jun 15, 2026cs.CL

Speaking in Self-Assessing Tongues: On the Verbalized Confidence of LLMs in Machine Translation

The rapid rise in popularity of large language models (LLMs) for translation calls for a thorough study of the reliability of their confidence in their own outputs. Unlike many generation tasks, translation errors and confidence levels can be useful at different levels of granularity (tokens, words, or spans). Unsupervised approaches based on internal signals like predicted probabilities can be misleading because they reflect certainty among alternatives rather than correctness. In addition, they require access to such internal signals. Here, we devise five verbalized methods of extracting an LLM's per-token confidence without those shortcomings and compare their reliability with that of the model's internal signals of certainty. We evaluate reliability using two forms of alignment: fine-grained error detection and calibration. For both, internal and verbalized methods perform similarly, although results vary by model. Interestingly, we find little to no correlation between internal and verbalized methods.

Ali Marashian, Alexis Palmer, Katharina von der Wense

University of Colorado Boulder, USA · Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Germany

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation MT Evaluation

Jun 15, 2026cs.CL

The Value Axis: Language Models Encode Whether They're on the Right Track

We investigate whether language models internally track the value of their current trajectory, defined as the likelihood that their ongoing strategy will achieve their goals. Using synthetic, in-context reinforcement learning data, we construct a "value" axis for Qwen3-8B. We find that activations along this axis distinguish between high vs. low verbalized confidence, rollouts without and with backtracking, and correct vs. corrupted code. Steering towards high value causally suppresses self-correction and reduces explanatory verbosity, while steering towards low value induces backtracking and exploration. We demonstrate that direct preference optimization (DPO) can increase the internal value of rewarded behaviors (e.g. use a certain word), causing the model to act more confidently after exhibiting them. Finally, we apply the value axis to study in-the-wild settings. For example, we find that Qwen assigns low value to politically sensitive chat queries after post-training and that supervised fine-tuning increases internal confidence within the training domain. Our results suggest that language models linearly encode an estimate of expected goal success that modulates their confidence in pursuing a direction.

Nick Jiang, Isaac Kauvar, Jack Lindsey

1Stanford University · 2Anthropic

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration Representation Geometry in Language Models Metacognition in Language Models

Jun 9, 2026cs.CL

SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment

Large language models increasingly express uncertainty through natural-language statements, yet these expressions often fail to reflect the model's sampled behavior. We study verbal uncertainty alignment as a distributional calibration problem: the appropriate uncertainty target for a prompt should be estimated from repeated model outputs rather than from an isolated response. However, group rollouts alone are insufficient, since the resulting target must provide a useful training signal. Existing targets only partially satisfy this requirement. We propose SAGE, Semantic-Answer Guided Entropy, a group-level uncertainty target that constructs an answer-conditioned uncertainty geometry over sampled responses. SAGE preserves categorical, numeric, and symbolic answer distinctions while maintaining a smooth and scale-preserving calibration signal. We further apply this target through Group-Uncertainty Preference Optimization, or GUPO, an uncertainty-channel training framework that supervises verbal uncertainty expressions rather than the full response. Experiments across factual, mathematical, and multiple-choice reasoning tasks show improved uncertainty ranking, lower calibration error, and reduced overconfidence.

Kaiwen Shi, Zheyuan Zhang, Yanfang Ye

University of Notre Dame

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Preference Optimization LLM Uncertainty Estimation Uncertainty Calibration

Jun 8, 2026cs.CL

Code Is More Than Text: Uncertainty Estimation for Code Generation

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as code generators, where silently wrong programs pose real safety and reliability risks. Reliable uncertainty estimation (UE) is essential for selective prediction, human-in-the-loop review, and downstream agentic decisions. Yet most existing code UE methods are inherited from natural language (NL) generation and ignore properties that make code distinct. We argue that code differs from NL in three ways: a single wrong token can break an entire program (token fragility); algorithmic intent and concrete implementation can disagree independently (intent-code gap); and programs can be executed (executability). We instantiate these properties as three orthogonal uncertainty axes: lexical (Top-K token entropy), algorithmic (pseudo-code consistency), and functional (behavioral consistency). Across five code LLMs, our three-axis ensemble improves average AUROC from 0.696 for the strongest NL-derived baseline to 0.776 (+8.1 points). Notably, on Qwen3-14B, our single-pass Top-K token entropy matches the strongest multi-pass baseline while being over 3x cheaper; across models, it remains a competitive low-cost signal. These results suggest that code UE deserves code-specific design rather than direct NL ports.

Yuling Shi, Caiqi Zhang, Yuexian Li +4

Shanghai Jiao Tong University · University of Cambridge

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Code Language Models LLM Code Generation

Jun 5, 2026cs.CL

The ACUTE Protocol: Operationalizing Language Model Activations for Better Calibration, Utility, and Trust

As language models improve and become increasingly deployed to solve a variety of tasks, trustworthiness becomes essential. Calibration is a good proxy for trust: well-calibrated confidence estimates help inform the risk versus reward tradeoff when trusting a specific model output. Unfortunately, even as models improve, they remain poorly calibrated, often biasing towards overconfidence. Additionally, calibration can be gamed: a policy that always predicts the base rate is perfectly calibrated, but completely uninformative. To resolve this, we develop a new metric, expected utility renormalized by the oracle (EURO), that balances calibration and informativeness. We also propose a general-purpose activation-based confidence, utility, and trust estimation protocol (ACUTE) to appropriately adjudicate uncertainty. The ACUTE protocol provides flexible, sample-efficient, and compute-efficient confidence estimators for 3 tasks including multiple choice question answering, tool-calling, and scientific document summarization across 6 models from 4 model families. ACUTE outperforms strong baselines on EURO, while maintaining low calibration error. Taken together, our work shows that equipping LLMs with the ACUTE protocol can improve calibration, utility, and trustworthiness in numerous settings.

Nishant Subramani, Palash Goyal, Yiwen Song +4

Carnegie Mellon University · Google · Scale AI

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Metacognition in Language Models

Jun 4, 2026cs.LG

CaliDist: Calibrating Large Language Models via Behavioral Robustness to Distraction

Existing calibration methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) often overlook a critical dimension of trustworthiness: a model's {\em behavioral robustness} to irrelevant or misleading information. In this paper, we argue that a model's true confidence should reflect its stability under cognitive pressure. We introduce \textsc{CaliDist}, a novel post-hoc calibration approach that directly measures and penalizes a model's susceptibility to distraction. \textsc{CaliDist} quantifies how an LLM's predictions and uncertainty change when its input prompt is perturbed with semantic \textit{distractors}. This stability (or lack thereof) signal is then used to adaptively scale the model's initial confidence score. Our extensive experiments on seven Natural Language Understanding classification benchmarks using six distinct LLMs show that \textsc{CaliDist} consistently achieves lower Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Brier Score compared with strong baselines. Remarkably, our method reduces the ECE from 23% to 7% on average--a relative improvement of 70%--demonstrating that behavioral stability is a powerful signal for calibration. We make our code and datasets available at github.com/m-anas-j/CaliDist.

Mohammad Anas Jawad, Cornelia Caragea

Computer Science, University of Illinois Chicago, USA.

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Jun 2, 2026cs.LG

Calibrating Overconfidence Without Sacrificing Confidence: Probe-Conditioned Head Intervention for LLMs

Large language models often express high confidence in answers that are wrong. Standard calibration remedies typically act globally or at the score level, reducing unwarranted confidence but also risking erosion of warranted confidence on correct answers. We introduce Probe-Conditioned Head Intervention (PCHI), an inference-time method that uses a frozen probe to detect likely wrong-but-confident responses and conditionally rescales downstream attention-head outputs during confidence generation. On Qwen3-4B-Instruct solving OpenMathInstruct problems with a structured binary confidence field, readout-token PCHI converts 82.2% of originally wrong-yes confidence readouts to

\texttt{no}

, while a joint intervention across upstream confidence-template tokens reduces ECE from 21.9% to 9.2% and damages only 5.1% of originally correct-yes readouts. The readout-token effect also appears on Gemma3-4B, though upstream interventions are weaker and more mask-dependent. These results show that verbalized overconfidence can be selectively reduced through conditionally applied internal intervention, partially decoupling the suppression of unwarranted confidence from the loss of warranted confidence.

Ke Li, Chongzhe Zhang, Zifan Zeng +3

Huawei Heisenberg Research Center · EPFL · TU Berlin +1

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Causal Interventions in Language Models

Jun 2, 2026cs.LG

Integrating Local and Global Entropy for Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

Large language models hallucinate confidently, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) essential for reliable deployment. Existing methods rely predominantly on token-level signals, leaving the geometric structure of intermediate hidden states underused. In this paper, we take the geometric complexity of hidden-state matrices as a measure of the global uncertainty of LLMs, while treating token-level uncertainty estimation as a local metric. We show that hidden-state geometric entropy (global uncertainty) and token-level entropy (local uncertainty) are statistically near-orthogonal, capturing distinct failure regimes for reliability prediction. In particular, global geometry recovers the confident-but-wrong failure mode that local signals systematically miss. Building on this, we propose Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU), an unsupervised, single-pass score that fuses the two signals via a multiplicative gate. Across three model families and six benchmarks, GLU matches or outperforms all unsupervised baselines while requiring only a single forward pass and remaining length-normalized and architecture-agnostic.

Johanne Medina, Tianyi Zhou, Keivin Isufaj +2

Qatar Computing Research Institute, HBKU Doha, Qatar · KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden

Uncertainty Quantification Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Jun 2, 2026cs.CL

Quantifying Faithful Confidence Expression in Large Reasoning Models

Reliable uncertainty communication is critical to the trustworthiness of LLMs, yet faithful calibration (FC)--the alignment between models' intrinsic and (linguistically) expressed confidence--is a persistent failure mode. This challenge is key for large reasoning models (LRMs), whose extended reasoning traces are often interpreted by users as evidence of deliberation, competence, and confidence. Despite the importance of FC and wide usage of LRMs, the extent to which LRMs can faithfully express their confidence remains poorly understood. Moreover, the prevailing paradigm to measure FC does not generalize well to the long chain-of-thought outputs generated by LRMs, which tend to lack clear step boundaries, involve inconsistent step structure, and encode complex conditional dependencies throughout the trace--complicating estimation of intrinsic confidence. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel framework to systematically quantify FC of LRMs. Our framework analyzes linguistic decisiveness relative to three sources of internal uncertainty, based on token probabilities, hidden states, and sampled response consistency. We also devise a prefix-conditioned sampling approach to control for conditional and structural variation across traces. Applying our framework to a diverse suite of leading models, datasets, and prompts, we find that faithful confidence expression is a significant challenge for LRMs. Reasoning behaviors do not automatically translate to improved FC, and prompt interventions for non-reasoning models do not improve faithfulness in the reasoning setting. Different confidence estimators further produce divergent assessments of the same traces, revealing fragility in prior evaluation methodologies. Taken together, our work establishes FC as a distinct reliability and alignment target for LRMs, particularly as such systems are increasingly deployed in high-stakes contexts.

Areeb Gani, Asal Meskin, Gabrielle Kaili-May Liu +1

1Yale University

LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Trust in AI+1

Jun 2, 2026cs.CL

Clustered Self-Assessment: A Simple yet Effective Method for Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across diverse tasks, but they often generate responses that appear plausible while being factually incorrect. This problem is compounded by the lack of explicit uncertainty estimates, which makes it difficult for users to judge the reliability of model outputs. Existing uncertainty quantification methods typically rely on indirect signals, such as entropy across sampled generations. These signals can be difficult to interpret and do not fully leverage the model's ability to assess its own uncertainty. We propose a simple yet effective self-assessment method for uncertainty quantification in LLMs. Our approach groups sampled generations into semantically distinct clusters, converts them into answer options in a structured multiple-choice question, and uses the probability assigned by the LLM to each option as a confidence estimate. Experiments across multiple models and datasets show that our method consistently outperforms baseline approaches. Notably, it achieves competitive performance with as few as two additional samples, demonstrating both its effectiveness and efficiency.

Qi Cao, Takeshi Kojima, Andrew Gambardella +3

The University of Tokyo, Japan

LLM Evaluation Uncertainty Quantification Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Self-Assessment LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation+1

Jun 2, 2026cs.CL

Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responses

Prior work has shown that instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) are less well calibrated than their base pre-trained counterparts. However, little is known about the frequently used chat template's effect on the calibration of conversational LLMs. In this work, we investigate the mechanisms driving this miscalibration by decoupling the effects of the post-training algorithm and the chat format. We find that, while instruction tuning fundamentally harms calibration, the chat template aggravates the issue through an "ownership bias" -- models are significantly more confident in their own answers than in identical answers provided by a user. Extensive experiments across six recent open-weight LLMs, three benchmarks, and three confidence elicitation methods show that models assign up to 26% higher confidence to their own responses. Leveraging this insight, we propose a simple inference-time strategy: framing the model's answer as user input during confidence elicitation. This approach significantly reduces overconfidence and improves calibration by up to 26% without the need for retraining, narrowing the gap between base and instruction-tuned models.

Mario Sanz-Guerrero, Manuel Mager, Katharina von der Wense

∇Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Germany · ♠University of Colorado Boulder, USA

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Prompting LLM Fine-Tuning Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

Jun 1, 2026cs.AI

Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction

Model compression techniques such as quantization and pruning are widely used to reduce the deployment cost of large language models (LLMs), with existing evaluations focusing almost exclusively on accuracy preservation. However, in safety-critical applications, a model's ability to reliably quantify its own uncertainty is equally important. We ask: does compression preserve this ability? To answer this question, we benchmark 12 LLMs under various compression configurations across five NLP tasks, using conformal prediction to provide a rigorous, distribution-free measure of uncertainty. Our experiments reveal that: (I) compression frequently decouples accuracy from uncertainty; (II) larger models absorb compression-induced uncertainty far more effectively than smaller ones; and (III) uncertainty inflation is often threshold-like rather than gradual. These results suggest that accuracy-only evaluation is insufficient for assessing the deployment readiness of compressed LLMs, and that uncertainty-aware benchmarking should be a standard component of model compression pipelines.

Yujia Tong, Yuxi Wang, Yunyang Wan +3

Wuhan University of Technology · Nanyang Technological University

LLM Quantization LLM Evaluation LLM Pruning LLM Compression Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Reliability+1

May 31, 2026cs.CL

Decoding in Order-Agnostic Language Models: Chain-Rule Deviation and Uniform Spreading

Order-agnostic language models (OALMs), including discrete diffusion language models (dLLMs), are trained to predict masked tokens under arbitrary conditioning sets, allowing sequences to be generated or scored under arbitrary reveal orders at inference time. In LLaDA-2.1, we report three findings. First, the learned conditionals are not exact factorizations of a coherent joint distribution: changing only the reveal order shifts target log-likelihood by up to 0.49 nats/token, so likelihood alone mixes content difficulty with path-dependent artifacts. Second, although confidence-first (CF) decoding is order-agnostic, its reveal orders are close to left-to-right (L2R) on content tokens. Third, we propose a complementary diagnostic based on the shape of the confidence trace. A uniform-spreading theorem shows that, at fixed total likelihood, target recoverability is maximized when per-step confidence is spread uniformly; the resulting deviation motivates

\mathrm{Var}(\log q_t)

as a diagnostic for comparing decoding paths. Across C4 and four downstream benchmarks, low variance separates structured paths from random ordering, and variance is consistently associated with downstream correctness. These results support reporting mean confidence and confidence variance jointly when comparing OALM decoding paths.

Lin Yao

School of Computer Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China · Zhongguancun Academy, Beijing, 100097, China

Language Model Decoding Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Modeling Diffusion Language Model Decoding Diffusion Language Models

May 29, 2026cs.CL

Shared Doubt: Zero-Shot Cross-Lingual Confidence Estimation for Language Models

Confidence estimation (CE), i.e. quantifying the reliability of a model's prediction, has attracted great interest in the context of large language models (LLMs). However, most studies focus on English, ignoring the multilingual reality of LLM usage, while many CE methods degrade or require retraining across languages. To address this gap, we investigate whether multilingual LLMs encode shared, language-transferable confidence features in open-ended question answering. We use a lightweight linear probe that predicts answer correctness directly from intermediate representations. Trained monolingually, the probe generalizes zero-shot to unseen, linguistically diverse languages without target-language supervision. Multiple ablations and learned layer weights reveal that confidence features concentrate in middle layers across languages, suggesting a shared confidence subspace. While zero-shot cross-lingual performance depends on similarity to the source language, the probe provides a strong baseline without any retraining and compares favorably to other popular confidence estimation methods.

Athina Kyriakou, Dennis Ulmer, Ivan Titov

° ILCC, University of Edinburgh · M ILLC, University of Amsterdam

Multilingual Language Models Zero-Shot Learning Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation Cross-Lingual Transfer

May 29, 2026cs.CL

Human-Alignment, Calibration, and Activation Patterns in Large Language Model Uncertainty

Uncertainty Quantification is a large and growing subfield of large language model behavioral analysis. Primarily to recognize and combat hallucination, the field has largely focused on measuring and improving calibration, the accuracy of uncertainty judgments to task efficacy. In this work, we investigate the relatively underexplored question of how similar large language model uncertainty is to human uncertainty. We investigate the presence and strength of human-similar uncertainty signals, deemed uncertainty alignment, in large language model overt behavior and internal activation patterns. We identify whether the models show evidence of simultaneous alignment and calibration on a variety of datasets covering both multiple choice and open ended factual recall. And we characterize the effect of instruct fine-tuning on each of these facets.

Kyle Moore, Jesse Roberts, Daryl Watson +2

1Vanderbilt University · 2Tennessee Technological University

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Interpretability Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation

May 27, 2026cs.CL

Can LLMs Use Linguistic Uncertainty Markers to Reliably Reflect Intrinsic Confidence?

LLMs' linguistically expressed confidence should faithfully reflect their intrinsic uncertainty. While recent work shows LLMs struggle to use epistemic markers (e.g., "it is likely...") in a human-aligned fashion, it remains unclear whether models can apply their own linguistic confidence framework to associate markers with specific confidence levels in a stable and generalizable way, and how contextual features impact this ability. We conduct the first systematic study of this question, formalizing marker internal confidence (MIC) as the estimated intrinsic confidence a model associates with a specific epistemic marker in a given task domain. We present 7 metrics to evaluate the stability of MICs within and across distributions. Applying our analysis framework to diverse models and tasks, we find that LLMs remain faithfully miscalibrated even under model-centric interpretation of marker meanings, struggling to differentiate markers by internal confidence across distributions despite preserving a somewhat consistent ranking order across tasks. This supplies critical, complementary evidence to existing work toward a holistic understanding of faithful calibration in LLMs, emphasizing the need for more aligned and stable marker use to improve trustworthiness and reliability.

Gabrielle Kaili-May Liu, Arman Cohan

Yale University

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

May 27, 2026cs.CL

When Confidence Misleads: Suffix Anchoring and Anchor-Proximity Confidence Modulation for Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion language models decode text by iteratively denoising masked token sequences, making the choice of which positions to decode a central inference-time decision. Most training-free decoding strategies use model confidence for position selection, assuming that high-confidence positions are ready to be decoded. In this work, we revisit this assumption by studying when confidence misleads fully non-autoregressive (fully non-AR) decoding. EOT tokens can receive high confidence and cause incomplete generation; inserting a suffix anchor can mitigate this issue but introduces local overconfidence near the anchor, causing anchor-adjacent tokens to be decoded too early. To address these issues, we propose Suffix-Anchored Confidence Modulation, a simple training-free method that inserts a short suffix anchor to encourage response completion and modulates confidence near the anchor according to decoding progress. This preserves the response-completion benefit of suffix anchoring while reducing premature decoding of anchor-adjacent tokens. Across text-only reasoning, vision-language reasoning, and code-generation benchmarks, our method consistently improves confidence-based fully non-AR decoding, outperforms explicit EOT suppression, and preserves the parallel decoding advantage of fully non-AR generation.

Jungwon Park, Jimyeong Kim, Jungmin Ko +2

1RICS · 2AIIS · 3IPAI +2

Non-Autoregressive Text Generation Language Model Decoding Confidence Estimation in Language Models Diffusion Language Model Decoding Diffusion Language Models

May 26, 2026cs.CL

Do Models Know Why They Changed Their Mind? Interpretability and Faithfulness of Chain-of-Thought Under Knowledge Conflict

When a language model sees a document contradicting its training knowledge, it must choose: follow the document or trust itself. Prior work proved this choice depends on how well-known the fact is. We ask: does the model's chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning faithfully report this mechanism? We introduce introspective faithfulness and test it across 200 questions, 8 models, and 4 prompt conditions. We find CoT reasoning is highly stable across opposite decisions: flip pairs retain 96% of same-answer similarity (d=0.34; confirmed by ROUGE-L, d=0.45). Yet self-rated confidence carries a faint genuine signal: for obscure facts where entity fame is uninformative, confidence still predicts decisions (p<0.001) and tracks item-level knowledge (r=0.134). GPT-4o is the only model with statistically reliable reasoning-decision coupling. Claude Sonnet 4.6 shows the widest confidence range (SD=1.39) but near-zero pooled correlation because the confidence-decision relationship reverses between conditions; a temperature ablation confirms this is model-specific. Internal thinking tokens show greater decision-sensitivity than user-facing CoT (p=0.033). CoT decomposes into a decision-invariant knowledge display (~96%) and a thin confidence layer with weak but real signal. For monitoring: read confidence, not the argument.

Pruthvinath Jeripity Venkata

Independent Researcher

CoT Faithfulness Faithfulness of Language Model Explanations Confidence Estimation in Language Models Knowledge Conflicts in Language Models LLM Interpretability Reasoning Consistency in Language Models+2

May 26, 2026cs.AI

Asking Is Not Enough: Protocol Sensitivity in LLM Confidence Calibration

LLM confidence calibration is often evaluated by comparing two signals: token-probability scores and verbalized confidence. These signals are sometimes treated as direct readouts of model uncertainty, but their comparison depends on measurement choices that are rarely made explicit. In the main analysis, we hold the verbalized-confidence elicitation fixed: a single prompt template, probability scale, and output format. We then vary the measurement axes that define the verbalized-vs-token comparison: which answer string receives the token-probability score, how that score is read from the answer tokens, and under which conditioning context it is measured. We evaluate this design on four QA benchmarks across three open 7--8B base/Instruct model families, with larger Qwen2.5 variants as same-family robustness checks. The resulting comparison is sensitive to these choices: conditioning context changes the sign or magnitude of the ECE gap across settings, token readout produces smaller but still sign-moving changes, and changing the ECE estimator has little effect. Under the default generated-answer, bare-context protocol, Instruct settings are close to parity rather than showing a large calibration gain for verbalized confidence. In a separate supplied-answer analysis, surface-plausible wrong answers receive nearly the same confidence as supplied gold answers, suggesting that verbalized confidence also reflects answer plausibility and provenance rather than correctness alone. We argue that both confidence signals should be treated as protocol-dependent behavioral measurements, and provide a reporting checklist covering elicitation provenance, scored answer, token-probability readout, and conditioning context.

Hankyeol Kim, Pilsung Kang

Seoul National University

LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation

May 25, 2026cs.CL

Confidence and Calibration of Activation Oracles for Reliable Interpretation of Language Model Internals

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.

Federico Torrielli, Peter Schneider-Kamp, Lukas Galke Poech

University of Turin · University of Southern Denmark

Confidence Estimation in Language Models LLM Interpretability Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation

May 25, 2026cs.AI

Second Guess: Detecting Uncertainty Through Abstention and Answer Stability in Small Language Models

Large language models often generate confident but incorrect answers rather than abstaining when uncertain. This problem is particularly acute for small language models (SLMs), where computational constraints and autonomous operation amplify the need for reliable uncertainty detection. We propose Second Guess, a lightweight, parameter-free prompting technique for abstention in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA) that is well-suited for SLMs. Our key empirical insight is that models which truly know an answer will select it consistently, while uncertain models exhibit unstable behavior when an ``I don't know'' option is added. Evaluated on four open models (2B-8B parameters) and four benchmarks, Second Guess achieves the highest composite risk improvement of 10.81%. Notably, it maintains an 8% composite risk improvement on fine-tuned models where entropy-based methods degrade, and improves most for lower-performing models. All code and results required to reproduce this work is available in https://github.com/Mystic-Slice/second-guess

Ashwath Vaithinathan Aravindan, Mayank Kejriwal

University of Southern California Los Angeles, 90007, California, United States of America · Information Sciences Institute 4676 Admiralty Way #1001, Los Angeles, 90292, California, United States of America

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Multiple-Choice Question Answering Small Language Models LLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Abstention

May 25, 2026cs.RO

Decision-Making with Lightweight Confidence-Aware Language Model for Autonomous Driving

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) have demonstrated immense potential in autonomous driving (AD) by offering human-like reasoning and open-world generalization. However, the excessive computational overhead and high inference latency of these massive models severely hinder their deployment in resource-constrained AD systems. To address this challenge, we propose a novel decision-making framework utilizing a lightweight confidence-aware language model, which bridges the gap between complex multimodal intention reasoning and efficient inference. Specifically, we design a multi-agent collaborative workflow, comprising action voting, confidence assessment, and summarization agents, to generate high-quality, confidence-annotated decision demonstrations via explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. These demonstrations are then distilled into a lightweight language model featuring a dual-head architecture, enabling the joint prediction of decision probabilities and the generation of textual rationales. The distillation is realized via a confidence-aware fine-tuning strategy coupled with Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) to enhance the model's adaptability and data efficiency. Comprehensive closed-loop experiments on the nuPlan benchmark demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) success rates in both regular and long-tail scenarios while maintaining low inference latency.

Ruoyu Yao, Ruiguo Zhong, Pei Liu +3

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511453, China

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Distillation LLM Uncertainty Estimation Autonomous Driving Planning Efficient Language Model Inference

May 24, 2026cs.CL

Inference Time Optimization with Confidence Dynamics

Inference time optimization techniques, such as repeated sampling, have significantly advanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the critical role of model uncertainty remains largely underexplored in these optimization strategies. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of confidence along reasoning trajectories and for first time reveal a surprising and unique pattern: correct answer traces tend to exhibit confidence improvement over time (positive confidence gain), while incorrect traces show attenuated or declining confidence as reasoning proceeds. Based on this observation, we propose Confidence Dynamic Gain (CDG) based voting, which incorporates how the confidence trajectory of the response evolves along the reasoning chain. Experiments across four open-source architectures (DeepSeek-R1, gpt-oss, Gemma-3, Qwen-QwQ) on the AIME24/25, HMMT25, and BRUMO25 benchmarks demonstrate that CDG yields a significant performance boost over baselines. These results demonstrate that our method provides a robust discriminative signal for improving answer selection in LLM reasoning. We also provide theoretical insights for this phenomenon. Code will be released at https://github.com/Accenture/CDG.git.

Yu Wang, Minghao Liu, Jiayun Wang +3

Center for Advanced AI, Accenture.

Inference-Time Optimization Confidence Estimation in Language Models Question Answering LLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Reasoning

May 24, 2026cs.AI

Trust but Verify: Prover-Verifier Deliberation for Selective LLM Prediction

Reliably knowing when a language model is correct is almost as important as being correct. We introduce prover-verifier deliberation (PVD), an inference-time protocol grounded in interactive proof theory, as a mechanism for selective prediction: the protocol produces both an answer and a structured confidence verdict, allowing a system to report high-confidence answers while abstaining on uncertain cases. In each dialogue, a prover defends a candidate answer through checkable sub-claims while a verifier issues targeted challenges and returns \textsc{Accept}, \textsc{Challenge}, or \textsc{Reject}. Because frozen language models are imperfect provers and verifiers operating over a noisy channel, formal soundness and completeness guarantees do not transfer; instead, we characterize the protocol empirically through its coverage-precision behavior. Our main experiment uses Claude Sonnet 4.6 as prover and Claude Haiku 4.5 as verifier on GPQA Diamond. Questions accepted with no answer revision, which we call Accept + No Change (ANC), are reported as the high-confidence subset; we evaluate this subset by its precision and coverage. ANC separates reliable from unreliable answers, yielding a

\sim

30pp HC-Prec gap over the non-ANC complement. Robustness experiments with GPT and Gemini pairings show that high HC-Prec can transfer across model families, while verifier strictness and domain competence largely determine the size of the selection gap. On Humanity's Last Exam, weaker prover-verifier pairings can collapse or invert the ANC signal, illustrating a practical failure mode when the verifier operates outside its effective region. Comparisons with self-consistency, universal self-consistency, multi-agent debate, and Reflexion suggest that prover-verifier deliberation supplies a distinct argument-defensibility signal for selective prediction.

João Sedoc, Baotong Zhang, Dean Foster

New York University

LLM Answer Verification Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models Selective Inference LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation+1

May 23, 2026cs.AI

Understanding and Mitigating Premature Confidence for Better LLM Reasoning

Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.

Jingchu Gai, Guanning Zeng, Christina Baek +4

1Carnegie Mellon University · 2Tsinghua University

Confidence Estimation in Language Models RL for Language Model Reasoning LLM Uncertainty Estimation LLM Reasoning

May 22, 2026cs.LG

LLMs Show No Signs Of Individuated Metacognition

Confidence-weighted routing, selective abstention, and ensemble weighting all assume that a model's stated confidence is informative about its capability on the question being asked. They presume functional metacognition, the capacity to assess one's own capabilities, without exercising them. Aggregate calibration is well studied, with mixed results, but the underlying structure of elicited confidence is less well understood. We decompose binary confidence judgements from 20 frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) across six benchmarks using tetrachoric factor analysis paired with pairwise calibration, asking whether two models that differ in confidence also differ in performance. On factual recall and information retrieval benchmarks the cross-model confidence matrix is approximately rank-one and a single dominant factor captures most of the latent variance. Models retrieving facts share an item-level difficulty axis and differ mainly in their decision thresholds along it. Across all benchmarks the relationship between confidence and performance collapses once items that all models agree on are removed. Inter-model pairwise calibration is small even where statistically significant, and what remains shrinks to nothing once base-rate differences along the shared factor are controlled for. Mathematical reasoning is the apparent exception, but this turns out to be a confound where reasoning models answer questions about their confidence by trying to solve them in their chain of thought, bypassing the sub-symbolic self-knowledge we seek to measure. We find no evidence for significant verbalised individuated metacognition in any tested domain.

M. Moran, Mark Whiting

Pareto AI

LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation Metacognition in Language Models

May 20, 2026cs.CL

Calibration vs Decision Making: Revisiting the Reliability Paradox in Unlearned Language Models

Machine unlearning aims to remove the influence of specific training data from a model while preserving reliable behavior on the remaining data, making reliable prediction and uncertainty estimation essential for evaluation. Calibration is commonly used as a proxy for reliability in language models, but low calibration error does not necessarily imply reliable decision rules, as models may rely on spurious correlations while remaining well calibrated. We investigate this gap in generative language models using the multiple-choice question-answering evaluation protocol on the TOFU benchmark, measuring probabilistic reliability with calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, Brier) and decision-rule reliability via attribution-based shortcut detection with Integrated Gradients and Local Mutual Information. We find that fine-tuned models achieve low calibration error (ECE ~ 0.04) compared to pretrained models (ECE > 0.5), and models after unlearning retain similarly low calibration despite reduced accuracy on the forget split, while attribution analysis shows increased reliance on correlation-based tokens. These results demonstrate that good calibration can coexist with shortcut-based decision rules after unlearning, extending the reliability paradox to the machine unlearning setting.

Divyaksh Shukla, Ashutosh Modi

Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT Kanpur)

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Unlearning Machine Unlearning Evaluation