Conformal Test Martingales

We consider the problems of formal verification and synthesis in parametric Markov decision processes (MDPs) with general measurable state and action spaces. The heart of our approach is a parameter flattening transformation, which allows us to transform parametric MDPs into semantically equivalent non-parametric MDPs. Building on this transformation, we introduce the novel notion of parametric supermartingale certificates, which generalize the traditional supermartingale certificates---used for non-parametric MDPs---to the parametric setting. We use our parametric supermartingale certificates to design algorithms for verification and approximate synthesis in polynomial arithmetic parametric MDPs. This leads to the first verification and synthesis algorithms for parametric MDPs with general state and action spaces. We implement our algorithms and experimentally evaluate them on several continuous parametric random walk benchmarks.

We develop Gaussian approximation bounds in higher-order Wasserstein distance $W_p$, $p\geq2$, for sums of multivariate martingale differences generated by a uniformly ergodic Markov chain. Under an $L^{(2+η)p}$-moment condition with $η>0$, we establish the explicit bound $O\left( p^3 \|A\|_4^2 + pd^{1/4}\|A\|_2^{1/2}\|A\|_4^2 \right)$ where $A\in\mathbb{R}^n$ collects the $L^{(2+η)p}$-sizes of the $n$ individual martingale increments. In the balanced-increment regime where the individual increments have comparable sizes of order $n^{-1/2}$, it yields the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ Gaussian approximation rate for fixed $p$ and $d$. Consequently, we also obtain the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ $W_p$ Gaussian approximation rate for multivariate additive functionals of uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Our analysis develops two techniques for addressing the interplay between higher-order Wasserstein distance and temporal dependence. First, building on the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck relative-score approach of Fang and Koike (2023), we formulate the bound in terms of antisymmetric Stein couplings while retaining the conditional tensor structure. Second, we develop a refresh-then-maximal coupling that combines an independent first-step resampling, which preserves the desired Stein identity, with a subsequent maximal coupling that provides effective control of the coupling increment. These tools may be useful more broadly for Gaussian approximation under temporal dependence.

Machine learning systems are increasingly corrected while they run, and the decision of when to intervene is increasingly delegated to statistical monitors. Anytime-valid inference promises evidence that can be acted on at any moment, exactly the guarantee this setting needs, and it is moving from theory into deployed monitoring. Conformal test martingales are the change-detection instrument, and Ville's inequality caps their false-alarm probability on exchangeable data. The guarantee is conditional. A deployment inherits it only if the stream it monitors behaves exchangeably. The premise is hardest to satisfy where these monitors are most useful, on dependent data and inside loops where the monitor modifies the learner whose scores it reads. It is also rarely measured. We measure it in a pre-specified case study, where such a monitor gates the online updates of a Kalman adapter correcting frozen time-series foundation models on five forecasting streams. On exchangeable synthetic streams, the same implementation fires in at most 1 of 60 runs. On the real streams, at alpha = 0.05, 135 of 135 clean-stream runs fired. The construction does not explain the firing; the failure comes from the deployed score stream itself. Repeated fires hold the gate's drift response active, and the gated filter amplifies the very transient it was designed to prevent. The component worth keeping makes no validity claim. Huber-style gating of the filter's own updates cuts isolated-spike degradation by an order of magnitude with no dataset specific tuning. Anytime-valid methods proposed for dependent data should therefore be accompanied by null-calibration controls and mechanism traces.

Competitive analysis is central to the study of online algorithms, but upper bounds are often highly problem-specific. We develop a more unifying methodology via the minimax viewpoint. Guided by Yao's principle, we reduce worst-case competitive analysis to Bayesian online design under an arbitrary correlated prior over arrival sequences. For such a prior, let $X^*$ be the hindsight-optimal fractional solution for the realized instance, and let $X^{(t)}=\mathbb E[X^*\mid \mathcal F_t]$ be its posterior process. Our guiding rule is posterior matching: at each time $t$, choose the feasible online action that tracks the current posterior $X^{(t)}$ as closely as the online constraints permit. We show that this single principle yields optimal or near-optimal guarantees for several classical online fractional problems, including set cover, load balancing, matching and more general resource-allocation problems, recovering or improving state-of-the-art bounds in these settings with norm/concave objectives. Via known rounding reductions, it also yields randomized integral guarantees for weighted paging, MTS on star metrics, and ski-rental. At a technical level, our analysis reduces competitive guarantees to key probabilistic inequalities for the vector martingales generated by the posterior of the offline optimum. The resulting framework gives a reusable route from Bayesian online design under arbitrary correlated priors to information-theoretic worst-case competitive guarantees.

Two central challenges in diffusion-based sampling are the theoretical one of understanding their remarkable effectiveness even in high-dimensional settings, and the practical one of designing algorithms with certified performance guarantees. We show that these questions are intimately connected via the \emph{denoising growth complexity} ($\mathsf{DGC}$). It is a geometric measure defined by a log-time weighted integral of the derivative of the denoising mean-squared error along the Gaussian heat flow. We show how the $\mathsf{DGC}$ increments lead to a simple and explicit bound on the KL error of an Euler scheme applied to the stochastic innovations representation. The bound is local along the path: each step is controlled by the corresponding $\mathsf{DGC}$ increment and its relative stepsize. This structure allows us to derive KL sampling guarantees for optimized stepsize schedules, both in a simpler single-block setting and in a more refined $K$-block setting. The $\mathsf{DGC}$ function has a natural martingale structure, which we exploit to develop fully data-certified versions of these algorithms. It also admits information-theoretic upper bounds in terms of covariance, rate distortion, metric entropy, and the Poincar'e constant, thereby recovering and sharpening a range of existing diffusion-sampling guarantees, as well as giving new results. In log heat-time, the fine partition limit is governed by an integral involving the square root of the $\mathsf{DGC}$ density, whereas a single-block schedule depends on its ordinary integral. This comparison precisely characterizes when adaptation to data geometry yields substantial computational gains, including logarithmic-to-constant separations for simple Gaussian mixture models.

A fundamental assumption in statistics and machine learning is that ``the future looks like the past,'' formalized as exchangeability: the joint data distribution is order-invariant. In practice, this assumption is often violated due to distribution shifts over time. Early detection of exchangeability violations is crucial to prevent performance degradation and enable timely interventions like model retraining. Conformal test martingales offer a flexible, distribution-free framework for sequential exchangeability testing with guaranteed false-alarm rate control by betting against the uniformity of conformal p-values. While alternatives such as plug-in martingales and mixture-based strategies exist, computationally efficient baselines like the Simple Jumper are limited to detecting mean location shifts. We propose a family of conformal test martingales based on shifted Legendre polynomials that extend the Simple Jumper to higher-order moments. The Simple Legendre Jumper replaces linear betting functions with polynomials of arbitrary degree, enabling rapid detection of variance, skewness, and other higher-order deviations. The Product Legendre Jumper combines multiple polynomial degrees into a single betting function but suffers from exponential state-space growth, termed the jumping tax. To resolve this, we introduce the Variational Legendre Jumper, which employs a mean-field approximation to reduce complexity to constant time per step with minimal power loss, providing an expressive, scalable framework for real-time distribution shift monitoring.

In small-batch scientific deployments, labeled target outcomes may be too scarce for reliable shift estimation even when unlabeled target inputs are available. We address the complementary setting where the practitioner has a pre-specified label-shift correction from domain knowledge and asks whether incoming labeled outcomes support it. We show that the per-observation likelihood ratio between a label-shift-corrected predictive and the source predictive is a conditional e-value, so its running product is a nonnegative martingale and Ville's inequality yields an anytime-valid confirmation rule. The log martingale equals the cumulative negative log-predictive density (NLPD) gap between the source and the corrected predictive, converting routine model monitoring into a formal sequential test. Rejection means the incoming data support the posited correction relative to the source predictive, but it is not a precise estimate of the degree of shift. Closed forms are available for GP sources with Gaussian label-shift ratios. GP regression simulations validate Type I control, finite-sample power, miscalibration sensitivity, and the small-batch advantage of a reliable prior over label-based re-estimation.

Recurrent neural networks maintain a hidden state $h_t$, but its probabilistic meaning is often unclear. We study hidden-state stability through \emph{backward coherence}: the extent to which $h_t$ can be reconstructed from $h_{t+1}$ by a learned backward projector $g_φ$. Under contraction and summable backward drift, the hidden-state sequence forms a quasi-reverse-martingale. This yields almost-sure convergence, rates under mixing, an interpretable limiting representation, finite pathwise stopping times, and a theoretical framework for time-uniform confidence sequences. Simulations support the theory. Backward-coherence regularisation reduces the empirical quasi-martingale total $\hat Q$ by $43$--$58$, reaches stability $28$--$44$ earlier than an unregularised RNN, and gives tracking-error recovery consistent with geometric bounds. Additional tests confirm echo-state forgetting rates bounded by $ρ$ and verify the increment-sum tube $R_t$ with $100$ simultaneous coverage, although $R_t$ is conservative; in practice, the defect-tail proxy $\hat Q_t$ is the more useful monitor. The backward-coherence loss is also equivalent to minimising a Kullback--Leibler divergence in a Gaussian backward model, linking the method to variational inference. Extensions cover $φ$-mixing inputs, change-point tracking, and finite-sample concentration. Three real-data studies further validate the approach. On PhysioNet 2012 ICU data, the Reverse Martingale RNN (RMRNN) matches RNN mortality-prediction AUC while reaching stable representations 13 hours earlier. On FRED-MD, it reduces one-month-ahead forecast error by about fourfold under concept drift. On UCI Human Activity Recognition, it maintains lower post-transition tracking error with geometric decay. The guarantees apply under the stated assumptions; universality is not claimed.

We study high-probability regret bounds for online convex optimization (OCO) with strongly convex losses and establish three results that resolve open questions at the intersection of noise adaptivity, feedback structure, and constraint satisfaction. For the full-information setting with sub-Gaussian stochastic gradients, we prove a noise-adaptive high-probability regret bound in which the martingale deviation term scales with the noise level $σ$ rather than the gradient bound $G$, yielding a multiplicative improvement of $G/σ$ over the classical Azuma-Hoeffding baseline. Our analysis introduces an exponential supermartingale argument that bypasses the bounded-difference requirement of Freedman's inequality, enabling direct treatment of unbounded sub-Gaussian noise without truncation artifacts. For bandit feedback, we prove a minimax lower bound: the high-probability regret scales linearly in $\log(1/δ)$, in contrast to the $\sqrt{\log(1/δ)}$ confidence cost under full information. This constitutes a formal separation in the confidence cost of strongly convex OCO across feedback models. Regarding constrained OCO with stochastic constraints satisfying a Slater condition, we provide simultaneous high-probability guarantees for both cumulative regret and long-run constraint violation, achieving $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T\log(m/δ)})$ regret and $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T}/(ζδ) + m\sqrt{T\log(m/δ)})$ violation. Synthetic experiments corroborate all theoretical predictions.

This paper introduces a distribution-free framework for constructing post-detection confidence sets for changepoints after stopping a sequential change detection procedure. It is well known that conformal test martingales can be used to sequentially detect changes in distribution, but by themselves provide no inference for the time at which a proclaimed change occurred. Past work on post-detection inference requires pre- and post-change classes of distributions to be known, but this paper accomplishes localization of the changepoint without any distributional assumptions. We establish finite-sample coverage guarantees (conditional on correct detection). We provide non-asymptotic bounds on the conditional expected size of the confidence sets. Under suitable asymptotic regimes, we prove that the conditional expected size of the confidence set remains uniformly bounded and demonstrate strong empirical performance on simulated and real data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first general distribution-free framework for sequential changepoint localization with valid post-detection coverage.

Certification methods for stochastic systems provide sufficient proof rules, based on real-valued supermartingale certificates, to determine the almost-sure satisfaction of $ω$-regular properties (and therefore of linear temporal logic) over general state spaces, encompassing both countably infinite and continuous state spaces. Conversely, reinforcement learning (RL) methods for $ω$-regular tasks have received considerable attention, but they typically lack formal guarantees that the learned policy satisfies the specification, except possibly for finite state and action spaces. We bridge these two lines of research by establishing a novel theoretical connection: under an appropriate reward, the value function associated to a policy that almost surely satisfies an $ω$-regular property encodes a Streett supermartingale certificate for that specification. Our results, validated experimentally on finite Markov decision processes, hold for finite, countably infinite, and continuous state spaces, suggesting a principled route to certificate synthesis via RL.

The Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) and its joint-independence extension $d\mathrm{HSIC}$ are degenerate $V$-statistics whose data-dependent weighted-$χ^2$ null limits force a permutation calibration that multiplies the per-test cost by the number of permutations, in practice two orders of magnitude. Adapting the recent martingale MMD construction for two-sample testing to the (joint) independence problem, we introduce two studentised statistics whose null distributions are standard normal regardless of the data law, so that a single normal-quantile lookup replaces the permutation step entirely. The first, $m\mathrm{HSIC}$, is a self-normalised lower-triangular sum of the Hadamard product of two empirically centred Gram matrices. Under independence and bounded-fourth-moment kernels it converges to a standard normal. It is consistent against every fixed alternative, and runs at quadratic cost in the sample size without any sample split, matching the biased HSIC $V$-statistic. Our second statistic, $md\mathrm{HSIC}$, achieves finite-sample consistency with a single half-sample split: the centring is estimated on one half and the lower-triangular self-normalised martingale is run on the other, shrinking the conditional-mean residual to a quantity that is exponentially small in $d$, so the statistic is asymptotically standard normal at every fixed number of jointly tested variables, with a per-test cost that grows only linearly in $d$. On synthetic data with per-variable input dimension from $1$ to $500$ and between $2$ and $10$ jointly tested variables, both statistics match the empirical type-I error rate and test power of permutation-calibrated baselines while running $25$ to $60\times$ faster.

Federated Bayesian neural networks require fixing a prior on the model parameters together with a likelihood. Eliciting meaningful priors on the weight space of modern overparameterized models is notoriously difficult, and misspecification of either component can severely degrade accuracy and calibration. Motivated by the rapid progress of predictive models such as large language models, the martingale posterior, also known as predictive Bayes, replaces the prior--likelihood pair with a predictive distribution and recovers parameter uncertainty by repeatedly drawing predictive samples and refitting the model. A direct federated implementation, however, would require clients to share the local data sets. This letter proposes {federated martingale posterior} (FMP) sampling, a one-shot embarrassingly parallel protocol in which each client uploads a small set of trainable data embeddings and the server runs the predictive sampler centrally. Experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 show that FMP closely matches the centralized counterpart and significantly improves calibration over consensus-style baselines.

Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly successful, their analyses are largely estimator-specific and expectation-based, obscuring the structural tradeoffs that determine reliability. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for stochastic variance-reduced estimation based on a recursion with three components: memory retention, reset probability, and a correction term for iterate movement. This framework recovers several classical estimators, motivates new second-order variants, and yields a bias-variance decomposition of estimation error. Our main result is a unified high-probability bound proved using a new dimension-free vector-valued Freedman inequality, valid for smooth normed spaces involving random sums of vector martingales. The result applies in both Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings, including the analysis of mirror-descent-based methods in Banach spaces. As applications, we obtain high-probability oracle complexities for unconstrained optimization with mirror descent, establishing the logarithmic dependence on the confidence level. We also derive the first $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ oracle-complexity bounds for stochastic optimization with expectation constraints, improving upon the existing $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-4})$ complexity by leveraging variance-reduced estimation for the first time in this setting.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) is often deployed under changing information, such as shorter histories, missing features, or partially observed images. In these settings, predictions from coarse and refined views should be coherent: before refinement, the coarse-view prediction should match the average prediction expected after refinement. Martingales formalize this coherence principle, but standard SSL objectives do not enforce it. Unlike invariance objectives that pull views together, martingale consistency constrains only the expected refined prediction, allowing predictions to update as information is revealed while preventing systematic drift. We introduce a martingale-consistent SSL framework that closes this gap, with practical prediction- and latent-space variants and an unbiased two-sample Monte Carlo estimator based on stochastic refinement. We evaluate the approach on synthetic and real time-series, tabular, and image benchmarks under partial-observation regimes, in both semi-self-supervised and fully label-free settings. Across these experiments, our framework improves robustness and calibration under partial observation, yielding more stable representations as information is revealed.

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on the choice of martingale updates, and many existing constructions do not exploit prior information about plausible data-generating distributions or mean values. We propose a Bayes-assisted framework that uses a Bayesian working predictive model to adaptively construct confidence sequences. For each candidate mean and time point, the predictive distribution selects, among valid one-step martingale factors, the update maximising predictive expected log-growth; validity is therefore preserved even when the prior or working model is misspecified. We prove that if the predictive distribution is Wasserstein-consistent, the resulting procedure is asymptotically log-optimal, matching the per-sample log-growth of an oracle procedure with access to the true distribution. We instantiate the framework using robust predictives based on Dirichlet-process mixtures and Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood. Experiments on synthetic data, sequential best-arm identification for LLM evaluation, and prediction-powered inference show that informative priors can substantially reduce confidence-sequence width and sampling effort while retaining anytime-valid coverage.

Self-normalized martingale inequalities lie at the heart of confidence ellipsoids for online least squares and, more broadly, many bandit and reinforcement-learning results. Yet existing vector and scalar results typically rely on bounded covariates and an explicit regularization matrix, producing bounds that are \emph{not scale-invariant}: although the self-normalized quantity is scale-invariant by definition, its standard upper bounds are not. We characterize when scale-invariant upper bounds on self-normalized martingales are possible. Without further assumptions, we prove that nontrivial scale-invariant bounds exist only in dimension $d=1$; moreover, in $d=1$ we obtain $O(\log T)$ scale-invariant self-normalized bounds without any assumptions on the covariates. In contrast, for $d>1$ we show that no nontrivial scale-invariant bound can hold in full generality. We then connect this dichotomy to \emph{doubly-uniform} regret in online linear regression (i.e., regret bounds that are simultaneously independent of the covariate scale and the comparator norm) and use it to resolve the open question of Gaillard, Gerchinovitz, Huard, and Stoltz, \emph{``Uniform regret bounds over $\mathbb{R}^d$ for the sequential linear regression problem with the square loss''} (ALT 2019): in $d=1$ we give an explicit algorithm with $O(\log T)$ doubly-uniform regret, whereas for $d>1$ sublinear doubly-uniform regret is impossible. Finally, under a natural \emph{smoothness} condition (bounded Radon--Nikodym derivatives of the conditional covariate laws with respect to a fixed base measure), we recover sublinear regret for $d>1$ without bounded covariates and derive a self-normalized concentration inequality free of the usual regularization penalties, yielding arguably a first natural scale-invariant bound for adaptive, non-i.i.d. vector martingales.

This paper is a continuation work of Ren et al. (2026) aiming to further devise q-learning algorithms for mean-field control (MFC) with controlled common noise. Based on the relaxed control formulation, we first establish the martingale condition of the value function and the Iq-function by evaluating along the conditional state distributions generated by all test policies. As the data in the relaxed control formulation are not observable in practice, we quantify the error incurred when they are replaced by the observable ones in the exploratory formulation under discretely sampled actions. This, together with a two-layer fixed point characterization of an optimal policy in Ren et al. (2026), allows us to propose several algorithms including the Actor-Critic q-learning algorithm, in which the policy is updated in the Actor-step based on the iteration rule induced by the improved Iq-function, and the value function and Iq-function are updated in the Critic-step based on the martingale orthogonality condition using the data from the exploratory formulation. We also establish the convergence of the inner iterations in the Actor-step in an infinite-horizon linear quadratic (LQ) framework. In two examples, within and beyond LQ framework, our q-learning algorithms are implemented with satisfactory performance.