Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

18 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 139

Oct 8, 2026cs.LG

Credal Machine Learning for Risk-Averse Decision Making

In many machine learning applications, it is necessary to guard against worst-case scenarios and predictions that could result in substantial losses. In principle, this can be achieved by training risk-averse predictive models that minimize loss functions such as conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), rather than relying on models that perform well on average. In practice, however, the effectiveness of this approach to risk aversion is undermined by the learner's uncertainty regarding the true loss distribution and, consequently, the true CVaR. To achieve reliable risk-aversion, we propose a method in which this (epistemic) uncertainty is represented in terms of credal sets, i.e., sets of probability distributions. More specifically, we develop an efficient yet reliable learner that produces predictions in the form of credal sets and combine it with a novel decision rule that maps each credal set to a single predictive distribution for CVaR minimization. Across classification, under distribution shift, and in reinforcement learning, our approach reliably avoids catastrophic decisions, while sacrificing little in expected performance.

Timo Löhr, Paul Hofman, Maximilian Muschalik +1

LMU Munich, MCML · LMU Munich, MCML, DFKI

Decision-Making under Uncertainty Conditional Value-at-Risk Risk-Sensitive RL

Oct 7, 2026cs.SE

Probabilistic Sensing, Deterministic Authority: Admitting Model-Produced Observations into Sufficiency-Checked Governance Contracts

When a field that an authority contract needs exists only in unstructured evidence, a model can sense it. We admit the model's output only as an observation record with a score. An admission policy, with thresholds fitted on a held-out split at a declared false-positive ceiling, maps each score to true, false or unknown. Unknown denies. A deterministic, sufficiency-checked contract decides. The probability that sensing changes the verdict is bounded by the sum, over the contract's sensed fields, of the admitted-wrong and unknown rates. This is an instantiation of union-bound reasoning, indexed by the contract. Minimising the estimated bound is a valid cost model for choosing among sufficient contracts. In a registered study on two constructed domains with two sensor families (36,000 model calls), no cell refuted the bound. Deny-to-allow changes from sensing appeared for the first time in this programme: 13 of 21,000 test verdicts, all from 3 contradictory records; each flip in a cell with a registered bound lay under it. Sensing-aware selection picked the lower-exposure contract in 4 of 4 registered tests. Both sensors' scores were informative but not calibrated. Correctness is relative to the declared loss model, candidate representation and reachable states; all domains are constructed.

Gaston Besanson

Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

AI Governance Decision-Making under Uncertainty Virtual Sensing Selective Prediction

Oct 7, 2026cs.CE

Strategic Investment Decision Making for Value Creation in Energy Transition: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

The global challenge of climate change has driven significant steps to reduce CO2 emissions, guided by international agreements like the Paris Agreement of 2015. Acting too slowly could result in future losses and reputational damage, while moving too quickly could jeopardize shareholder value due to the marginal profitability or potential losses due to technology immaturity of many renewable projects. To navigate this complex transition, energy companies must adopt Sequential Decision Making (SDM) strategies to maximize value creation from decision flexibility under uncertainties. To support this, we developed a custom simulation environment to model the dynamic energy landscape up to 2050. Building on this, we designed a multi-criteria SDM framework that explores various decision strategies related to different portfolios for allocating funds across three sectors: oil & gas, renewables, and CO2 reduction. It aims to maximize value during the transition while accounting for uncertainties in productions, energy prices, and costs. This framework has three objectives: maximizing profit, minimizing CO2 social costs, and enhancing competitive advantage in the renewable energy sector. This research evaluates the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) to identify optimal investment policies within the defined SDM framework. The agent's sequential decisions shape a virtual dynamic environment by influencing key variables such as oil and gas production, renewable energy output, CO2 emissions, and revenues. Through repeated interaction, the RL algorithm explores the state space and learns an optimal policy under uncertainty. We benchmark the RL strategy against a set of manually defined baseline policies and find it consistently outperforms them in adaptability and long-term value creation.

Yasaman Cheraghi, Reidar B. Bratvold, Aojie Hong +2

Department of Energy and Petroleum Engineering, University of Stavanger, Norway · Independent Researcher, Stavanger, Norway · NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen, Norway

Sequential Decision Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

Oct 7, 2026cs.AI

AI Safety Considerations for Agents With Limited Time to Act

In the wake of the increasingly public discussion about AI alignment, recent work has tried to propose specific AI architectures that behave safely. However, the proposed arguments that seemingly demonstrate proved alignment mostly neglect the environment the agent needs to act in. We discuss theoretical bounds for agent-agnostic safety guarantees in environments that can only be partially observed and within which an action is required within limited time. We introduce two realistic scenarios, one with an infinite state space and one with signal mixture. In these scenarios, we prove that even a perfect agent cannot guarantee safe behaviour. It will be argued that for any proof of AI safety or alignment, the environment and associated safe actions need to be specifically considered together with the agent.

Leo Zeitler, Jack Richings, Victoria Nockles

The Alan Turing Institute 96 Euston Road London, NW1 2DB, United Kingdom

AI Agent Safety AI Safety AI Alignment Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Oct 6, 2026cs.AI

Training Language Models To Be Coherent Decision-Makers

Reliable decision-making requires more than accurate prediction: a model must preserve its beliefs, apply the relevant utilities, and recognize when the information needed to justify an action is missing. We study whether language models can learn this decision procedure from supervised fine-tuning and generalize it across domains and differing natural-language expressions of the decision challenge. Across 20 datasets, we explore challenges of belief instability and decision-making errors by first eliciting probabilities of outcomes and then varying only the utilities and the framing of the decision problems, while holding the evidence fixed. We train models to preserve elicited beliefs while selecting the action that maximizes expected utility, and evaluate transfer to unseen application domains, held-out framings, and different classes of payoff structures. We further introduce incomplete-information settings in which required utilities are withheld and replaced with irrelevant text, testing whether models can distinguish missing decision-relevant information from merely additional context. We find that targeted fine-tuning substantially improves coherent decision-making and that in many situations, learning transfers across domains and framings to situations unobserved during training. Further, models trained for decidability learn to identify when action cannot be justified based on missing information. Finally, we show the value of a routed system that considers separately the recognition of decision completeness and utility-sensitive decision execution.

Khurram Yamin, Xavier Fernandes, Paul Koch +2

Carnegie Mellon University · Microsoft

LLM Decision-Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty Reasoning Consistency in Language Models Supervised Fine-Tuning

Oct 4, 2026cs.LG

Compact set-valued deep ensembling in multi-class classification

This paper tackles visible challenges in deep ensemble learning, where deep neural networks serve as ensemble members: training and storage burdens, and robustness of cautious (set-valued) predictions targeting multiple utilities, which may involve reward-sensitivity. To mitigate the training and storage burdens, we propose to employ compact ensembles, such as Bayesian Neural Networks and Convolutional Neural Networks with the Monte-Carlo dropout prediction option, to produce probabilistic predictions. For each query instance, these probabilistic predictions are then used to define a representative distribution optimizing some statistical distance. The representative distribution is then employed to define the Bayes-optimal prediction (BOP) of any utility. To address the potential unrobustness of singleton prediction making, we propose a family of set-utilities satisfying some desirable properties and whose set-valued BOPs can be found efficiently. Empirical evidence is then given to illustrate the potential (dis)advantages of the proposed ensemble learning framework.

Kim-Dung Tran, Dang-Man Nguyen, Vu-Linh Nguyen +3

UMR CNRS 7253, Heudiasyc, Universit´e de Technologie de Compi`egne, Compi`egne, France. · School of Knowledge Science, Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Nomi, Japan.

Deep Ensembles Multiclass Classification Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 30, 2026cs.AI

A Simple Doxastic Deontic Logic for Norm-Guided Decision Making

Making decisions despite conflicting norms and incomplete or unreliable information is a fundamental challenge for autonomous systems. We introduce a simple doxastic deontic logic for this setting: a classically reducible fragment of Chellas' Minimal Deontic Logic, extended with explicit conditional norms and combined with multi-agent KD45, so that norms can depend on agents' beliefs about both facts and norms. On this logic we define the Doxastic Norm Compliance Optimization Problem, where an agent chooses a decision minimizing weighted norm violations. We distinguish subjective optimization (relative to the agent's beliefs) from objective optimization (relative to the actual facts). We give conditions under which (i) the two coincide and (ii) optimal decision-making can be reduced to weighted partial MaxSAT in polynomial time.

Thorsten Engesser, Agata Ciabattoni

TU Wien

Logical Reasoning Constrained Optimization Deontic Logic Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

Should I stay or should I show? Learning to selectively disclose information

In many high-stakes settings, human decision-makers can acquire support information before making a decision. However, acquiring information is costly, and disclosure may fail to improve human decisions or may even impair them. We tackle this problem by studying selective disclosure, i.e., the problem of learning when to reveal support information to a human decision-maker under a budget constraint. We first show that the optimal policy is a threshold rule on the Value of Information (VoI), i.e., the expected reduction in human decision risk induced by disclosure. Since VoI is unknown in practice, we estimate the regime-specific human risks and bound the possible degradation of the resulting plug-in policy relative to lack of disclosure, as well as its regret relative to the optimal policy. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that selective disclosure outperforms both no disclosure and full disclosure, regardless of whether the support information is beneficial or harmful. Two user studies show that human-AI team performance can improve when disclosure is led by our learned policy and not human-selected, although this advantage varies across tasks. A counterfactual benchmark, which replaces participants' predictions with a machine-learning prediction when disclosure occurs, suggests that these differences might depend on lower adherence to advice when the information is automatically provided rather than self-requested.

Carlotta Giacchetta, Alessando Bogani, Cesare Barbera +4

University of Trento, Trento, Italy · University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy · ETH AI Center & ETH, Zürich, Switzerland +1

Value of Information Human-AI Decision Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 29, 2026cs.AI

Distinguish or Homogenize: Last-Chance Policy Identification and Risk-Budgeted Recovery under Irreversible Resource Depletion

Under irreversible resource depletion, an agent can spend resources to distinguish among latent fault models, or to change the system state so that the remaining models admit a common acceptable continuation--at which point further diagnosis becomes unnecessary. This distinguish-or-homogenize principle identifies a path that existing frameworks for identification, planning, and diagnosis do not make explicit: prior formulations treat the mapping from fault models to acceptable policies as a given, whereas LCPI makes it a function of the agent's own actions. We formalize this principle through Last-Chance Policy Identification (LCPI), where correctness is evaluated at the state the agent reaches rather than at the initial state. The Last Identifiable Margin (LIM) marks the feasibility boundary between distinguishing and homogenizing. For deterministic diagnostic graphs we provide the Exact-LIM recursion; for noisy finite-horizon recovery we propose Risk-Budgeted Compatibility Planning (RBCP), which searches a compatibility-aware frontier under a hard worst-case failure constraint. Across incident recovery on abstract microservice topologies and latent-damage navigation in MiniGrid, RBCP improves risk-feasible recovery while satisfying the failure budget. A sham control--cost-matched actions that preserve model incompatibility--eliminates the gain entirely, confirming that the benefit comes from changing which policies are acceptable for which models, not from extra search or additional budget.

Yibo Guo, Xiaodan Wang

School of Computer and Artificial Intelligence, Zhengzhou University, Henan Zhengzhou 450001, China

Robot Failure Recovery Model-Based Planning Decision-Making under Uncertainty Fault Diagnosis

Sep 22, 2026cs.AI

The Delegation Blind Spot: Auditing Product Decisions from Agent Choices

Successful agent execution need not identify which future product improvement its user would value. We present a decision-specific audit that maps a declared observation channel and product-value contrast to compatible intervals and witness populations. Its foundations are established identification and decision theory; the contribution is an executable measurement workflow and a controlled study of its limits. A frozen experiment makes 4,800 requests to two pinned model snapshots on shared synthetic tasks. All 36 conservative primary intervals remain unresolved despite different execution accuracy. An exploratory 2,400-call follow-up records supplied preferences and resolves three of nine comparisons per model. A deterministic extractor resolves seven of nine without model calls or calibration observations, exposing unnecessary uncertainty introduced by model-generated reports. A further 14,400 controlled multinomial simulations distinguish structural ambiguity from weak identification and finite calibration precision. We propose a source-labeled decision receipt and provide an offline viewer for inspecting the audit. These results motivate preserving decision-relevant structured input and diagnosing why a decision is unresolved before collecting more telemetry. The study contains no human participants or real customer outcomes. Full proofs, raw model provenance, controlled experiments, and reproducible analyses accompany the report.

Shivam Gupta

Independent Research

AI Agent Auditing Partial Identification Decision-Making under Uncertainty Black-Box Model Auditing

Sep 16, 2026stat.ML

Learning Submanifolds for Subsequent Inference on Random Dot Product Graphs, Part 1: Theory

We propose a framework for restricted inference on random dot product graphs whose latent positions lie on an unknown low-dimensional support manifold. For general decision problems, we propose semisupervised decision rules that use auxiliary data to learn the support manifold. Specifically, our rules use the Isomap manifold learning procedure to construct a low-dimensional Euclidean representation of the observed graph, in which space an isometrically invariant function maps configurations of points to actions. We study the behavior of the proposed rules as the quantity of auxiliary data sampled from the unknown support manifold increases. We show that, as the auxiliary sample size increases, the risk of the semisupervised rule converges to the risk of an oracle rule that relies on the maximal amount of low-dimensional Euclidean structure that can be extracted from the support manifold. Examples, applications, and simulation studies are deferred to a sequel.

Michael W. Trosset, Carey E. Priebe

Department of Statistics, Indiana University. · Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics, Johns Hopkins University.

Semi-Supervised Learning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 16, 2026cs.LG

A Geometric Theory of Decision Boundaries in Structured Markov Decision Processes

Classical dynamic programming represents optimal sequential decisions through value functions and policies. While this functional representation is natural for computing optimal decisions, it does not directly identify the mathematical object governing policy reconstruction, representation complexity, or oracle-query complexity once an optimal policy is fixed. This paper addresses this question by developing a geometric theory of structured optimal policies in which the decision-boundary geometry induced by the policy becomes the primary object of analysis. We show that, under suitable structural regularity conditions, this geometry provides the minimal representation required for policy reconstruction and determines the statistical and computational complexity of the reconstruction problem. Building upon this representation, we establish structural properties of policy-induced decision geometry, introduce intrinsic notions of boundary and decision complexity, derive information-theoretic measures of decision compression, and obtain statistical guarantees for boundary estimation and policy reconstruction from black-box policy queries. Collectively, these results demonstrate that, for the structured decision problems considered here, the complexity of policy reconstruction is governed by the geometry of the decision boundary rather than by the cardinality of the ambient state space. Controlled numerical experiments examine the principal theoretical predictions and provide empirical evidence consistent with the proposed framework.

Fredy Pokou

MRE, INOCS · Inria, CNRS, Univ. of Lille, Centrale Lille, UMR 9189 - CRIStAL, F-59000 Lille, France

Markov Decision Processes Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 15, 2026cs.AI

Do Frontier Models Seek Safety Evidence Before Acting?

Frontier models are often evaluated on how they respond to safety information once it is already in context. We study an earlier decision point: whether models choose to acquire safety-relevant evidence before acting. We introduce SAFE, a controlled benchmark in which models make deployment decisions with optional evidence that varies in retrieval cost, probability, severity, and presentation. Across GPT-5.5, o3, Claude Opus 4.8, and Claude Sonnet 4.6, we find distinct evidence-acquisition policies: Opus inspects nearly by default, o3 is the most skip-heavy and threshold-sensitive, and GPT-5.5 and Sonnet occupy intermediate regimes. Inspection increases strongly with severity and decreases with retrieval cost, whereas probability has much weaker behavioral influence: increasing the stated likelihood of a problem from 10% to 70% changes inspection by at most 21 percentage points. Despite these differences, Stage 1 rationales are dominated by expected-value reasoning across models. A cost-obligation decomposition further shows that avoidance is driven primarily by retrieval friction and explicit threats to the deployment payoff rather than by the remediation duties created by knowing. Counterfactual interventions reveal a further mismatch between behavior and explanation: evidence framing can strongly change decisions near the inspection boundary while going largely unmentioned, whereas probability is frequently cited despite having little causal influence. These results suggest that deployment-time safety depends not only on how models respond to known risks, but also on whether they acquire the evidence needed to know that acting is safe.

Omer Tafveez

University of Michigan

LLM Safety Benchmarks LLM Safety Evaluation Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 14, 2026cs.AI

Pilot Early, Commit Late: A Real-Options Model of Enterprise AI Adoption under Rapid Technological Progress

Artificial intelligence presents firms with an unusual timing problem. The technology frontier is improving rapidly, implementation is partly irreversible, and organization-specific capabilities are accumulated through action. This paper develops a two-period decision model of AI deployment under uncertainty in which a firm chooses among immediate deployment, a limited pilot, and waiting. Deployment earns current operating value but exposes the firm to architectural obsolescence; waiting preserves the option to adopt after the frontier is observed; a pilot sacrifices current operating value to build organization-specific learning without full commitment. The model yields five central timing results and a sixth comparative result on where learning occurs. First, a mean-preserving increase in frontier uncertainty raises the value of waiting and piloting but leaves immediate deployment unchanged when its payoff is affine in the frontier. Second, faster expected frontier progress can reduce the relative attractiveness of immediate deployment when deployed architecture captures only a limited share of future improvement. Third, a pilot dominates waiting exactly when the expected value of the capability it builds exceeds its cost. Fourth, sufficiently valuable organization-specific learning creates a nonempty region in which "pilot early, commit late" is optimal. Fifth, there is a closed-form modularity threshold above which immediate deployment dominates the best outside option. Sixth, production learning and pilot-specific learning affect the timing margin differently. A continuous-time extension recovers the standard result that uncertainty raises the adoption threshold while capability and modularity lower it. The paper separates deploying, experimenting, and waiting, and shows why rapid progress can rationally increase experimentation without justifying irreversible commitment.

Gaurav Tewari

Omega Venture Partners

Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 14, 2026cs.AI

When Should a World Model Move? Loss-Conditioned State Execution

We introduce loss-conditioned state execution, a model-agnostic method that decides whether to execute a world model's fixed feasible proposal or retain the current state. Predictive informativeness alone, however, does not establish whether an update will reduce downstream loss. Occurrence ranking can approach perfection while persistence remains the unique absolute-loss Bayes action. Two transition laws can also share occurrence information and conditional variance yet require opposite absolute-loss decisions. We formalize state movability as the existence of a loss-reducing feasible correction and distinguish it from the benefit of a particular proposal. Our method constructs a loss-specific feasible proposal from a predictive distribution and evaluates its groupwise bounded-loss gain over persistence on independent calibration units. The proposal is executed only in groups with a positive simultaneous lower confidence bound. For fixed proposals and groups with bounded unit losses, we prove that every accepted group has lower expected loss than persistence with high probability when calibration units are i.i.d. draws from the target population. Experiments on public forecasting and action-conditioned dynamics benchmarks show supported updates and a trade-off between certification and coverage. On 28,684 held-out M4 Monthly series, the method executes the proposal for 14.0% of series and achieves bounded loss 0.588, compared with 0.599 for persistence and 0.621 for always executing the proposal. The paired 95% bootstrap intervals for both comparisons lie below zero. In constrained forecasting of six unhealthy-inventory types from JD

\mbox{.}

com, a leading e-retailer in China, strong occurrence-ranking signal coexists with a loss-based preference for persistence, illustrating why event predictability and state execution must be evaluated separately.

Jintao Xu, Zhengyu Chen, Ben Zhang +2

Supply Chain Tech Team Y, JD.com

Selective Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 14, 2026econ.TH

Robust Trust

An agent chooses an action based on her private information and a recommendation from an informed but potentially misaligned adviser. With a known probability, the adviser truthfully reports his signal; with the remaining probability, he can send any message. We characterize optimal robust decision rules that maximize the agent's worst-case expected payoff. Every optimal rule is equivalent to a trust-region policy in belief space: the adviser's reported beliefs are taken at face value if they fall within the trust region but are otherwise clipped to the trust region's boundary. We derive alignment thresholds above which advice is strictly valuable and fully characterize the solution in both binary-state and binary-action environments.

Piotr Dworczak, Alex Smolin

Toulouse School of Economics

Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 13, 2026cs.LG

Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

Earth system modeling is shifting from task-specific predictors toward foundation models with general spatiotemporal representation capabilities. Although these models can jointly encode dynamic Earth fields, external forcings, and static geographic context for multistep forecasting, accurate point predictions or statistically calibrated intervals alone are insufficient for high-impact applications such as extremeweather warning, flood control, renewable-energy dispatch, and emergency resource allocation. What matters in practice is whether predictive uncertainty can be translated into reliable decision risk under specific actions, loss functions, and risk preferences. We propose a decision-oriented uncertainty quantification framework for Earth system spatiotemporal foundation models. The framework produces predictive distributions of future states and uses a decision risk adapter to map forecast samples, decision context, and utility functions into action-conditional risks. A utility-aware calibration module further enforces reliability at the downstream decision-loss level rather than only at the forecast-value level. Calibrated risks are then used to select warning, dispatch, inspection, or resource-allocation actions. Compared with the strongest baseline, the proposed method reduces decision regret by 18.7%, lowers the missed-event rate from 14.2% to 9.1%, and improves expected utility by 11.6%, while maintaining 90.4% predictive coverage and reducing decision calibration error from 0.083 to 0.047. These results suggest that decision-oriented uncertainty quantification can improve the robustness and operational value of Earth system foundation models in risk-sensitive applications.

Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5

Vanderbilt University, United States · City University of New York, United States · Yale University, United States +4

Uncertainty Quantification Geospatial Foundation Models Spatiotemporal Forecasting Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 11, 2026cs.RO

When Information is Worth the Risk: Behavioral Valuation for Hazardous Robotic Exploration

Hazardous robotic exploration requires robots to map spatial risks, such as unsafe terrain, radiation, fire, mines, or structural damage, while operating where collecting information can itself cause failure. A highly informative path may expose the robot to hazards, terminate execution, and prevent future observations. Hazardous exploration therefore requires deciding not only where uncertainty is largest, but when reducing it is worth the risk. This paper introduces a valuation-layer view of this problem. We keep the belief update, sensor model, physical risk model, and finite-horizon informative planner fixed, and change only the scalar objective used to rank feasible paths. Within this framework, we introduce a risk-augmented Behavioral Information objective based on Prelec probability weighting, yielding an interpretable family of conservative-to-aggressive information-risk valuations. Theoretically, we show that valuation parameters create switching boundaries between high-information/high-risk and lower-information/lower-risk paths, and induce a transformed Pareto-frontier structure over feasible exploration policies. Large-scale failure-truncated grid-world experiments show that valuation alone reshapes the information-risk frontier. Shannon information planning remains a strong raw-information baseline, while risk-aware objectives can reduce hazard exposure and robot losses by avoiding failures that truncate future sensing. Risk-augmented Behavioral valuation is Pareto-competitive with standard risk-aware baselines and provides interpretable conservative and intermediate regimes. These results support a framework in which robots reason not only about how much uncertainty an action reduces, but whether that reduction is worth the risk required to obtain it.

Alkesh K. Srivastava, Aamodh Suresh, Carlos Nieto-Granda +1

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19122, USA · U.S. DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory, Adelphi, MD 20783, USA · Lobster Robotics, The Hague, South Holland, Netherlands

Value of Information Informative Path Planning Robotics Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 10, 2026stat.ML

Risk-Averse Decision Making with Multi-Level Reliability Guarantees

Many applications in engineering, including wireless broadcasting, require designs that provide performance certificates at different target outage levels. This paper studies the problem of maximizing the weighted average of such certificates in the presence of uncertainty about the true system state. The problem is shown to be equivalent to an optimization over nested prediction sets, connecting to the literature on conformal prediction and extending prior art on single-level risk-averse decision making. Furthermore, we derive a dual formulation that decouples optimization across input values. Numerical experiments on a diversity-based wireless transmission system illustrate the cost of enforcing multi-level certificates with a single shared policy and trace the Pareto trade-off between multiple reliability levels.

Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo Simeone

Institute for Intelligent Networked Systems (INSI), Northeastern University London, London, UK

Stochastic Optimization Chance-Constrained Optimization Multi-Objective Optimization Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 10, 2026cs.IT

A Mathematical Theory of Pragmatic Information

We propose a mathematical theory of pragmatic information that connects communication, control, and decision-making. Its central notion is the isoteleia mapping, which formalizes equifinality: distinct semantic paths that lead to the same optimal action are treated as pragmatically equivalent. This mapping yields a three-tier hierarchy of syntactic, semantic, and pragmatic information, in which each successive abstraction removes distinctions that are irrelevant to the task. We then define pragmatic entropy, up/down pragmatic mutual information, channel capacity, and rate-distortion, and prove lossless source coding, channel coding, and rate-distortion theorems that extend Shannon's results. These measures quantify decision uncertainty, reliable transmission, and task-oriented compression at the level of terminal actions. We further introduce pragmatic value of information (VoI) and pragmatic cost of information (CoI) as decision-theoretic duals to rate-distortion and capacity, and develop a Lagrangian dual framework for cross-layer optimization. The resulting pragmatic efficiency bound

\mathcal{E}_p(λ)=\sup_R[Φ_p(R)-λ\mathrm{CoI}_p(R)]

characterizes the maximum net utility attainable by a resource-constrained intelligent system under a given resource price, yielding a behavioral capacity that extends Shannon's symbol-level capacity to goal-directed action. Extensions to continuous messages provide closed-form expressions for Gaussian channels and sources, while dynamic settings are addressed through a Bellman equation for sequential decision-making. The framework supports task-oriented communication, networked control, autonomous systems, and embodied AI by shifting emphasis from symbol fidelity to the effectiveness of information in guiding actions. In this way, it offers a common language for systems that extract value from information under resource constraints.

Kai Niu, Ping Zhang

Key Laboratory of Universal Wireless Communications, Ministry of Education · State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, China

Rate-Distortion Theory Value of Information Decision-Making under Uncertainty Mutual Information

Sep 9, 2026cs.RO

Adaptive Shared Control with Online Bounded-Rational Human Behavior Estimation

This work considers adaptive shared human-robot control for nonlinear control-affine systems, where the assumption of a fully rational human is relaxed and the robot adapts its assistance to observed boundedly rational human behavior. We use a level-k bounded-rationality model of the two-player game to construct a finite bank of candidate human and robot policies through alternating best-response computations, with the associated value functions and policies approximated using adaptive dynamic programming. During the shared-control interaction, state-transition residuals compare the measured system evolution with the trajectories predicted by the candidate human policies. The residuals are accumulated using a forgetting factor and mapped to a probabilistic human-behavior model over the finite candidate bank. Rather than selecting a single candidate or averaging stored robot policies, the robot computes a distribution-aware one-step best response by minimizing an expected cooperative cost over the complete estimated human behavior distribution. For a quadratic terminal-value approximation and Euler state propagation, this response admits a closed-form solution expressed in terms of the expected human input. The proposed methods are evaluated in simulations of a benchmark nonlinear system stabilization task, and of a planar manipulator shared control setup. The reported results show decreasing Kullback-Leibler divergence between the estimated and simulated human behavior distributions, and a lower accumulated running cost for the robot agent over the shared control interaction period, than the maximum-probability and probability-weighted alternative policies baseline.

Henry Ascencio Trejo, Roel Pieters, Gokhan Alcan

Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland

Human-Robot Collaboration Shared Autonomy Bounded Rationality Adaptive Control Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 9, 2026stat.ML

A Unifying Perspective on Probabilities as Model Predictions

Although probabilistic statements are ubiquitous, foundational disagreements persist about their understanding, as exemplified by debates between Bayesians and frequentists; moreover, it is unclear when and why acting on them actually leads to desirable outcomes. Here, we argue that every probability is the output of a \emph{prediction method}, that is, it depends on both a particular way of constructing abstractions and a way of transforming them into predictions. Through this, we provide a unifying perspective on supposedly different kinds of probabilities and show that even supposedly objective ones are model-dependent. We demonstrate that when a finite calibration criterion is met, one can anticipate the distribution of utilities for a given policy and inform successful decision-making on finite sets of events. Based on the notion of prediction methods, inductive arguments, and the probability calculus, we explain the feasibility of the calibration criterion in many settings. Overall, we develop a coherent perspective on probabilities and their use, connecting key intuitions behind other interpretations along the way.

Benedikt Höltgen

Hasso Plattner Institute, University of Potsdam

Probability Calibration Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

FinalityBench: An Effect-Level Benchmark for Agent Decisions Under Delayed and Conflicting Financial Finality

A merchant's payment processor, ledger, ERP and bank feed are updated by messages that get delayed, duplicated, dropped and reordered, so for minutes at a time the four hold contradictory beliefs about the same order. An agent resolving the exception must decide whether to ship goods, re-submit a capture, refund or wait, knowing some of those cannot be undone. We present FinalityBench, an executable benchmark for that decision. It keeps a hidden canonical event log and derives each system's view from a separately faulted delivery stream, so disagreement follows from specified fault semantics rather than being authored. Grading is on executed monetary effects: an episode is scored by the merchant's terminal economic position, relative to a privileged reference told when the pending capture resolves. The corpus of 321 tasks includes 45 twin pairs (90 tasks): tasks whose four system views are identical at the decision instant, whose authoritative probes both return unknown, and whose eventual correct dispositions differ. That snapshot indistinguishability is checked under every evaluation seed rather than assumed; equivalence over all interaction traces is not claimed. Over 14,445 graded episodes from nine programmatic policies, ranking by single-task accuracy and by paired loss disagree in 7 places: a ship-on-first-sign policy is second-best by accuracy at 65.7% and worst in the suite by paired loss, because it cannot tell the two members apart. A runtime gating irreversible actions on an authoritative finality probe reaches 85.4% and, unlike every polling policy, loses nothing to pass^5; its residual loss is almost entirely one archetype, which prices finality information directly. Language models reach the same exact rate as the hand-written gate on a stratified subset, lose about twice as much money, and discover the finality-gating strategy without being told it.

Abhishek Sharma

AI Agent Benchmarks Runtime Enforcement for AI Agents Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 4, 2026cs.AI

Planning and Scheduling Business Processes under Control-Flow Uncertainty: Extended Version

Scheduling activities in business processes can improve efficiency (e.g., reduce makespan), but is challenging because the exact sequence of activities required to complete a case is often uncertain due to decisions based on data that emerges during execution. Nevertheless, probabilistic information regarding such decisions can often be estimated or derived from historical execution logs, and can help anticipate which execution paths are likely to lead to successful completion. Planning with particular execution paths affects feasibility, i.e., the probability of successful completion, and the expected number of superfluous activities that are planned but never executed. We frame the problem as a chance-constrained optimization problem and present two formulations: A decomposed approach with two stages, a planning stage that minimizes the expected number of superfluous activities subject to a feasibility constraint, and a scheduling stage that minimizes the makespan over the planned activities; and an integrated approach that combines planning and scheduling into a single formulation. Evaluation on two real-world and one synthetic dataset shows that the integrated approach yields superior makespans but is intractable at scale, while the decomposed approach scales to large settings.

Michel Kunkler, Stefanie Rinderle-Ma

Technical University of Munich, Germany TUM School of Computation, Information, and Technology

Stochastic Optimization Chance-Constrained Optimization Business Process Automation Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 2, 2026cs.AI

UTP-Bench: Uncertainty-aware Travel Planning Benchmark

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong capabilities in automated travel itinerary generation. However, real- world travel planning is inherently uncertain: transportation delays, crowd fluctuations, and unexpected stochastic delays frequently inval- idate otherwise feasible schedules. Existing benchmarks like TravelPlanner and TripCraft assume deterministic environments, evaluating only static constraint satisfaction and ignoring whether generated plans remain robust when such uncertainties arise. To address this limitation, we introduce UTP-Bench1 , a large-scale benchmark for uncertainty-aware travel planning. The dataset integrates real-world travel data spanning 504 cities of India, including attractions, restau- rants, accommodations, and multi-modal trans- portation networks. To model realistic disrup- tions, UTP-Bench incorporates empirical delay distributions and crowd-density patterns col- lected from major cities, enabling evaluation of travel plans under stochastic conditions. We further propose three evaluation metrics, namely Buffer Adequacy Score (BAS), Crowd- Aware Timing Score (CATS), and Transport Delay Absorption Score (TDAS), which quan- tify the ability of generated itineraries to main- tain robustness against transit delays and crowd variability. Experiments with state-of-the-art LLMs like GPT-5, Qwen3, Mistral and Phi-4 re- veal substantial gaps between model-generated and human-authored plans, particularly in tem- poral buffering, delay-aware transportation scheduling, and crowd-sensitive planning.

Etcharla Revanth Rao, Priyanshu Karmakar, Shubhojit Mallick +3

IIT Bhubaneswar, India · Microsoft, India

LLM Planning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Sep 1, 2026cs.RO

Scalable Rao-Blackwellized Online Planning for High-Dimensional POMDPs

Online planning under uncertainty remains a fundamental challenge for robotic systems operating in partially observable environments with high-dimensional state spaces. While sampling-based POMDP solvers enable approximate decision-making in large or continuous domains, their performance degrades as belief dimensionality increases due to the high variance inherent in Monte Carlo-based estimation. In this work, we extend the Rao-Blackwellized online POMDP (RB-POMDP) framework to improve its generalizability in high-dimensional settings through hybrid continuous-discrete belief representations. By analytically propagating uncertainty associated with marginalized state components during tree-based planning, the proposed approach reduces sampling-induced variance in value estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework in a robotic search-and-rescue task by integrating it with FastSLAM 2.0. Experimental results show that the proposed planner achieves higher cumulative rewards using significantly fewer particles and planning simulations than purely sampling-based methods under equivalent computational budgets. These results suggest that structured high-dimensional robotic problems admitting tractable sufficient statistics can be effectively leveraged within the RB-POMDP framework for computationally feasible online decision-making.

Jiho Lee, Nisar Ahmed, Kyle Hollins Wray +1

Ann And H.J. Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences Department, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA · Manning College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA

Belief-Space Planning Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Aug 13, 2026math.ST

On the Structural Limits of Machine Learning Decision Systems: An Information-Theoretic, Interaction-Based, and Stochastic-Dynamical Perspective

Machine learning procedures are commonly evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, their achievable performance is fundamentally constrained by structural properties of the underlying data-generating process, which are formalized in terms of informational bounds. In this work we examine intrinsic limits of data-driven decision systems from an information-theoretic and interaction-based perspective. We analyze minimal achievable error in classification through Fano-type bounds and precision limits in parametric estimation via the Cramér-Rao inequality, emphasizing that such limits depend on the underlying model rather than on algorithmic sophistication alone. We further discuss how implicit assumptions, such as independence, ergodicity, and distributional stability, affect the validity of inferential procedures. Building on interaction-based modeling principles, we review typical frameworks such as Markov Random Fields and potential based representations for encoding dependence mechanisms. We also describe decision systems, including LLM-integrated agent architectures, as feedback-driven stochastic processes where state-dependent dynamics may induce emergent macroscopic behavior. This perspective highlights the importance of having adequate models for the data as a prerequi- site for expanding predictive capability, and situates algorithmic learning within the informational limits imposed by the models.

Nestor R. Barraza, Gabriel Pena

Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero. Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnología. · Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería.

Stochastic Linear Dynamical Systems Statistical Learning Theory Decision-Making under Uncertainty Information-Theoretic Lower Bounds

Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

DACRI: Decision-Aware Causal Intervention Ranking for Critical Supply Chains

Detecting or attributing a supply-chain disruption is not the same as selecting the intervention that maximizes recoverable net value. We present CriticalSCM-Bench v1, a controlled synthetic benchmark with causal ground truth, paired factual/counterfactual rollouts, and an explicit net-value objective. Relative to a full-information train-selected static benchmark, LambdaMART improves median normalized net value by 5.7--16.2%, with paired statistical support on the semiconductor and critical-material archetypes but not on digital infrastructure. On digital infrastructure, a domain-informed constant-buffer policy remains stronger, showing that greater model complexity is not uniformly justified. Across partial and delayed settings, LambdaMART retains 33--75% of full-clamp value. Stress tests further show that intervention fidelity, timing, cost, and held-out disruptions can alter policy ordering. Critical materials show the weakest out-of-distribution retention. Separately, a guarded explanation study over 540 generations preserves every fixed intervention decision after deterministic validation and template fallback, although exact wording remains unstable. Within this controlled setting, the results identify regimes in which adaptive ranking adds value and those in which simpler structural policies remain preferable.

Shiqi Huang, Jiani He, Dingyan Shang +4

Independent Researcher

Learning to Rank Supply Chain Management Decision-Making under Uncertainty Causal Intervention

Aug 11, 2026cs.AI

Decision-Aware Approximation of Belief Functions for Evidential Combinatorial Optimization

Reducing the number of focal elements of a mass function is classically driven by an intrinsic distance, such as Jaccard or Jousselme, that keeps the approximation close to the original as a body of evidence. We consider instead the case where the mass function feeds a linear combinatorial optimisation problem with evidential costs. What should then be preserved is not the closeness of the two mass functions, but the quality of the decision they induce. We introduce a decision-aware approximation that targets the regret of the decision: one decides with the cheaper approximation and is evaluated under the true mass function. On a minimal shortest path, the distance-optimal approximation flips the decision while a decision-aware merge preserves it, and this occurs on a non-negligible fraction of random instances. We prove a one-point bound that localises the regret at the true optimum, turn it into an exact dynamic program for the scalar case, and extend it to an online version that prunes focal elements before the final cost is known. In experiments the decision-aware compressor flips the decision less often than representation-aware compression, for both the linear criterion and a non-linear proxy read-out.

Sohaib Afifi

Univ. Artois, UR 3926, Laboratoire de Génie Informatique et d’Automatique de l’Artois (LGI2A), Béthune, France

Dempster-Shafer Theory Combinatorial Optimization Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Aug 7, 2026cs.LG

Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

Multimodal fusion architectures typically assume all modalities are available at inference, yet sensor failures, acquisition variability, and cost constraints routinely produce incomplete observations. Existing work treats modality absence as a prediction-accuracy problem, leaving a more basic question unanswered: whether a model's confidence estimates remain calibrated when an entire input stream is removed. We argue that missing-modality robustness and calibrated uncertainty are a single coupled property, and introduce Modality-Conditioned Conformal Fusion (MCCF), an architecture that addresses both at once. MCCF combines a multimodal bottleneck fusion backbone trained with modality dropout, per-modality evidential heads producing modality-decomposed Dirichlet distributions, and a Dempster-Shafer combination rule that fuses the per-modality evidence into a joint predictive distribution; an absent modality contributes vacuous evidence that is structurally ignored, so the fused uncertainty automatically reflects the reduced information without test-time imputation. A Mondrian conformal calibration module keyed on the modality-presence mask then provides finite-sample group-conditional coverage for every non-empty modality subset. MCCF is, to our knowledge, the first method with formal coverage guarantees under arbitrary modality availability through architectural integration rather than post-hoc recalibration, and the evidential decomposition yields per-modality vacuity scores that localise uncertainty to the absent modality responsible. Across a synthetic problem and three real multimodal benchmarks, MCCF holds its target coverage on every modality-presence subset, substantially narrows the coverage gap between full and partial modalities relative to a marginal split-conformal baseline, and imposes no measurable accuracy cost relative to temperature-scaled and evidential baselines.

Alireza Moayedikia

Department of Business Technology and Entrepreneurship Swinburne University of Technology Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia

Missing-Modality Learning Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction Dempster-Shafer Theory Conformal Prediction Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal Fusion Multimodal Fusion+1