Distribution Shift Robustness

Overview

The field asks how models can remain accurate, calibrated, and fair when data change across time, locations, populations, or conditions, including shifts in inputs, labels, and their relationships. Approaches include distributionally robust optimization, invariant and causal representations, targeted data augmentation, test-time adaptation, and conformal methods that adjust predictions or quantify uncertainty. Evaluation increasingly uses temporal and cross-domain tests, realistic corruption benchmarks, and worst-group measures rather than relying only on random train-test splits. A central tension is that adapting to a new domain can improve its performance but also cause instability or forget earlier capabilities, while guarantees that cover broad shifts may produce overly conservative predictions.

Latest papers

CardsList

285 papers34 papers in the last four weeks, up 31% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. KMM-CP: Practical Conformal Prediction under Covariate Shift via Selective Kernel Mean Matching

    Mar 27, 2026Siddhartha Laghuvarapu, Rohan Deb, Jimeng SunWeighted Conformal PredictionCovariate Shift

  2. Between Resolution Collapse and Variance Inflation: Weighted Conformal Anomaly Detection in Low-Data Regimes

    Mar 24, 2026Oliver Hennhöfer, Christine PreisachAnomaly DetectionWeighted Conformal Prediction

  3. Assessing the Robustness of Climate Foundation Models under No-Analog Distribution Shifts

    Mar 24, 2026Maria Conchita Agana Navarro, Geng Li, Theo Wolf +1Distribution Shift RobustnessClimate Modeling

  4. Causally-Guided Diffusion for Stable Feature Selection

    Mar 21, 2026Arun Vignesh Malarkkan, Xinyuan Wang, Kunpeng Liu +2Feature SelectionDistribution Shift Robustness

  5. Cloud-Edge Collaborative Large Models for Robust Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

    Mar 21, 2026Nan Qiao, Shuning Wang, Sijing Duan +5Solar Power ForecastingDistribution Shift Robustness

  6. Bayesian Scattering: A Principled Baseline for Uncertainty on Image Data

    Mar 21, 2026Bernardo Fichera, Zarko Ivkovic, Kjell Jorner +2Uncertainty QuantificationDistribution Shift Robustness

  7. Causal Direct Preference Optimization for Distributionally Robust Generative Recommendation

    Mar 21, 2026Chu Zhao, Enneng Yang, Jianzhe Zhao +1Large Language Model-Based RecommendationDistribution Shift Robustness

  8. Evaluating Test-Time Adaptation For Facial Expression Recognition Under Natural Cross-Dataset Distribution Shifts

    Mar 20, 2026John Turnbull, Shivam Grover, Amin Jalali +1Test-Time AdaptationDistribution Shift Robustness

  9. Transformers Learn Robust In-Context Regression under Distributional Uncertainty

    Mar 19, 2026Hoang T. H. Cao, Hai D. V. Trinh, Tho Quan +1In-Context LearningTransformer

  10. Stochastic set-valued optimization and its application to robust learning

    Mar 18, 2026Tommaso Giovannelli, Jingfu Tan, Luis Nunes VicenteStochastic OptimizationDistribution Shift Robustness

  11. Variational Kernel Design for Internal Noise: Gaussian Chaos Noise, Representation Compatibility, and Reliable Deep Learning

    Mar 18, 2026Ziran LiuKernel MethodsModel Calibration

  12. Evaluating Black-Box Vulnerabilities with Wasserstein-Constrained Data Perturbations

    Mar 16, 2026Adriana Laurindo Monteiro, Jean-Michel LoubesExplainability EvaluationBlack-Box Model Auditing

  13. Point-Identification of a Robust Predictor Under Latent Shift with Imperfect Proxies

    Mar 16, 2026Zahra Rahiminasab, Reza Soumi, Arto Klami +1Proximal Causal InferenceDistribution Shift Robustness

  14. A Causal Framework for Mitigating Data Shifts in Healthcare

    Mar 13, 2026Kurt Butler, Stephanie Riley, Damian Machlanski +13Distribution Shift RobustnessCross-Domain Generalization

  15. Worst-case low-rank approximations

    Mar 11, 2026Anya Fries, Markus Reichstein, David Blei +1Low-Rank ApproximationDistribution Shift Robustness

  16. Rethinking Adam for Time Series Forecasting: A Simple Heuristic to Improve Optimization under Distribution Shifts

    Mar 10, 2026Yuze Dong, Jinsong WuAdaptive Gradient MethodsNon-Stationary Time Series Forecasting

  17. Data-driven robust Markov decision processes on Borel spaces: performance guarantees via an axiomatic approach

    Mar 9, 2026Sivaramakrishnan RamaniRobust Markov Decision ProcessesDistributionally Robust Optimization

  18. Shaping Parameter Contribution Patterns for Out-of-Distribution Detection

    Mar 7, 2026Haonan Xu, Yang YangOOD DetectionDistribution Shift Robustness

  19. Learning Optimal Distributionally Robust Individualized Treatment Rules Integrating Multi-Source Data

    Mar 5, 2026Wenhai Cui, Wen Su, Xingqiu ZhaoDistribution Shift RobustnessDistributionally Robust Optimization

  20. BD-Merging: Bias-Aware Dynamic Model Merging with Evidence-Guided Contrastive Learning

    Mar 4, 2026Yuhan Xie, Chen LyuModel MergingDistribution Shift Robustness

  21. Explanation-Guided Adversarial Training for Robust and Interpretable Models

    Mar 2, 2026Chao Chen, Yanhui Chen, Shanshan Lin +4Adversarial TrainingAdversarial Robustness

  22. Boosting AI Reliability with an FSM-Driven Streaming Inference Pipeline: An Industrial Case

    Mar 2, 2026Yutian Zhang, Zhongyi Pei, Yi Mao +3Streaming InferenceFinite-State Machine

  23. A Theory of Random Graph Shift in Truncated-Spectrum vRKHS

    Feb 27, 2026Zhang Wan, Tingting Mu, Samuel KaskiGraph Domain AdaptationDistribution Shift Robustness

  24. Bigger Is Safer: Provable Robustness in In-Context Learning Scales with Capacity

    Feb 19, 2026Di Zhang, Ningxu Zhang, Zimeng LiuIn-Context LearningDistribution Shift Robustness

  25. CAFE: Causally-Guided Automated Feature Engineering with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

    Feb 18, 2026Arun Vignesh Malarkkan, Wangyang Ying, Yanjie FuAutomated Feature EngineeringDistribution Shift Robustness

  26. Coverage Guarantees for Pseudo-Calibrated Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift

    Feb 16, 2026Farbod Siahkali, Ashwin Verma, Vijay GuptaConformal PredictionDistribution Shift Robustness

  27. Rank-Constrained Adaptation for Reliable Real-World Performance

    Feb 6, 2026Abinitha Gourabathina, Hyewon Jeong, Teya Bergamaschi +2Subgroup RobustnessDistribution Shift Robustness