Ensemble Learning
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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 38% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.
Latest papers 166
While sequential residual fitting is the bedrock of standard boosting frameworks, it inherently breeds learner redundancy by repeatedly revisiting correlated error components. To address this bottleneck, we propose a shift from residual fitting to \textit{residual orthogonalization} and introduce SCBoost. Our framework tackles redundancy through two complementary mechanisms: Spectral Residual Projection (SRP) and Covariance-Regularized Weighting (CRW). During training, SRP projects each residual target onto the orthogonal complement of the historical prediction subspace, forcing successive learners to capture only novel empirical innovations. During aggregation, CRW optimizes ensemble weights on a validation set with an explicit covariance penalty to mitigate remaining correlations. Theoretically, we provide a finite-sample geometric characterization proving that SRP yields an exact additive residual-energy decomposition. Furthermore, under an isotropic-noise assumption, we rigorously establish the conditions under which this projection improves the effective Signal-to-Noise Ratio. Extensive experiments across ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that SCBoost delivers strong out-of-the-box performance, particularly in accuracy and F1 score. This work reinterprets boosting through a geometric lens, suggesting that explicit redundancy control is a principled and necessary step toward more efficient ensemble architectures.
Classifying by Proxy: Explainable and Reproducible Ensemble of Proxy Tasks for Child Sexual Abuse Imagery Classification
Child Sexual Abuse Imagery (CSAI) classification systems are needed solutions for lessening the psychological impacts often felt by law enforcement agents responsible for evaluating these materials and for efficient removal of these materials from the web. However, due to the nature of the task, researching and developing such systems is not a trivial endeavor. The images are highly sensitive, and the related datasets are under restrictive access regimes, which means most studies in the area are not reproducible or distributable and are therefore hard to compare and validate. More concerning still, most models for this task today lack an aspect often desired by law enforcement agents: explainability. In this paper, we apply an ensemble of Proxy Tasks -- tasks that correlate to CSAI classification -- yielding improvements in reproducibility, explainability, and security for distribution. This concept is applied for the first time to real CSAI, with a novel selection of relevant Proxy Tasks (selected from the CSAI literature) and training adaptations to the original framework. Our final model achieves competitive results, yielding 91.9% balanced accuracy on the RCPD dataset with the best Proxy Task combination. We furthermore contrast these results with the best-in-class representation learning model, DINO, and show that our ensemble improves accuracy and provides explanations for its classification results, a feature that a single deep learning model can seldom provide.
Odds Law: The Decomposition Algebra On How Intelligence Organizes Itself to Solve Difficult Problems Reliably
We ask a structural question: given unreliable elementary problem-solvers, what organizations of them solve hard problems reliably, and what are the limits? We develop a : elementary solvers are morphisms in a stochastic category, and four combinators (sequential composition, parallel ensembling, verification gating, and recursive reduction) generate the space of compound solvers. We equip this algebra with two homomorphisms, a valuation into the ordered monoid and a valuation into a commutative semiring, and we derive the composition laws that govern how reliability flows through structure. Our central results are (i) a (the result that names this report), showing that a verification gate multiplies the odds of correctness by the verifier's likelihood ratio , so that conditionally independent gates yield geometric amplification; (ii) a , giving target reliability at verification depth whenever ; and (iii) a : above the critical parameters reliability can be driven arbitrarily close to one at logarithmic cost, while at or below them no amplification is possible. We then show that is the least fixed point of a monotone improvement operator on the complete lattice of strategies, and that this fixed point equalizes marginal log-odds gain per unit cost. Finally, we prove matching limits: an information ceiling bounds per-gate amplification by a divergence quantity; shared error causes create a strictly positive voting floor, so diversity is for unbounded amplification. Reliability, in short, is neither free nor magical: it is bought with independent information, arranged by composition, and bounded by the verifier.
Fusing Stylometric and Embedding Systems to Estimate Authorship Likelihood Ratios in Japanese
The likelihood ratio framework is widely recognized as the logically and legally sound basis for evidential analysis across forensic sciences, and its importance is increasingly acknowledged in analyses of authorship in textual evidence. To date, however, its application has been confined to English-language texts. Meanwhile, authorship attribution has traditionally relied on a diverse array of stylometric features, even as the rise of pre-trained large language models enables new contextual-embedding approaches. Combining these diverse approaches through fusion promises enhanced performance, yet it has not been applied to integrate stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems within the likelihood ratio paradigm. This study is the first to apply likelihood ratio-based forensic text comparison to Japanese digital texts, using ~1,000-character excerpts from blogs, to 1) evaluate system performance and likelihood ratio magnitudes and 2) assess the impact of fusing stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems. The results demonstrate that the fused system maintains excellent calibration while 1) increasing consistent-with-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes; 2) decreasing contrary-to-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes and 3) improving overall discriminability. The best-performing fusion achieved a log-likelihood-ratio cost of 0.32484, illustrating both the feasibility of likelihood ratio framework for Japanese and the benefits of fusion across heterogeneous systems.
Co-Evolved Spiking Neural Network Ensembles via Marginal Contribution Fitness
Evolutionary optimization of spiking neural networks (SNNs) becomes increasingly difficult as task complexity grows because they must search a combined topology--parameter space that grows super-exponentially with network size. We address this scaling challenge through a co-evolutionary ensemble framework in which a population of candidate SNNs is evolved with fitness defined by each network's marginal contribution to group performance. Grounded in cooperative game theory and difference evaluation functions from multiagent systems, this credit assignment rewards networks that consistently improve ensemble performance and penalizes redundancy, encouraging complementary specialization during evolution rather than relying on post-hoc combination of independently trained networks. We evaluate the approach on classification, regression, and control tasks under Caspian neuromorphic hardware constraints. Co-evolved ensembles achieve statistically significant improvements over both single-network evolution and post-hoc ensembles across all tasks, with the most pronounced gains in control, where standard evolution fails to discover effective policies and co-evolution enables a qualitative transition to near-optimal performance.
Majority-of-Three is Optimal
We give a short proof that the majority vote of three independent consistent classifiers is an optimal learner in the realizable PAC setting. This proves optimality for the simplest voting scheme, while simplifying both the algorithmic structure and the probabilistic analysis of previous voting learners, including the algorithm of S. Hanneke and the analysis of bagging by K. Green Larsen.
Simplex-Constrained Sparse Bagging: Transitioning from Uniform Priors to Sparse Posteriors in Ensemble Learning
We present Simplex-Constrained Sparse Bagging (SCSB), a mathematically rigorous framework for post-training compression and probability calibration of bootstrap-based bagging ensembles. Standard bagging ensembles (such as Random Forests, Bagged SVMs, and Bagged Neural Networks) assign uniform voting power to all constituent estimators. However, this naive uniform prior ignores the varying local competence of base estimators and contributes to model overconfidence. We formulate ensemble pruning and calibration as a joint optimization problem over the probability simplex by minimizing the Out-Of-Bag (OOB) loss. To induce sparsity, we address the theoretical "L1-simplex paradox" - the mathematical reality that the L1 norm is constant on the simplex and fails to prune - by introducing a concave quadratic penalty. SCSB is model-agnostic and achieves up to 96% ensemble compression, yielding linear inference speedups and superior probability calibration (lowered Expected Calibration Error) while preserving or enhancing generalization accuracy.
Validation-Stage Combinatorial Fusion Analysis for Imbalanced Credit-Card Fraud Detection
Credit-card fraud detection is difficult because fraudulent transactions are rare, costly, and unevenly distributed. Strong gradient-boosted tree models already perform well on structured transaction data, so the value of another fusion method is not obvious. This paper examines whether Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), which searches over model subsets and rank-score fusion rules, can still add value on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection benchmark. Using a leakage-free 60/20/20 train/validation/test protocol, we evaluate 480 fusion configurations built from seven base classifiers. The best test-set result comes from diversity-weighted score fusion of Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM (DEF WtScore), with AUC-ROC = 0.9405, AUPRC = 0.6699, and F1 = 0.6373. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 1,000 resamples show that the gains over the strongest single model exclude zero for all three metrics. CFA matches soft voting on AUC-ROC, improves AUPRC and F1, and outperforms stacking in this setting. A CTGAN augmentation experiment gives a negative result: synthetic fraud samples degrade both individual models and CFA. Overall, CFA is most useful here not as a way to combine every classifier, but as a validation-stage method for choosing a small, complementary subset and assigning diversity-aware weights.
Improving PET/CT-Based Whole-Body Lesion Segmentation Using Prediction Uncertainty-Augmented Models
Accurate lesion segmentation from whole-body Positron Emission Tomography (PET)/Computed Tomography (CT) scans is essential for cancer staging and treatment planning. PET provides functional metabolic information with different radiotracers, while CT offers anatomical localization. Lesion delineation from PET/CT imaging is clinically challenging due to subtle imaging features, confounders, and inter-reader variability. Existing deep learning approaches suffer from training-related stochasticity, inconsistent predictions, missed lesions in high tumor-burden cases, and lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their clinical reliability. Using nnU-Net as a baseline, we propose an uncertainty-aware framework for whole-body PET/CT lesion segmentation that integrates (1) Bayesian ensembling to reduce training stochasticity, (2) voxel-wise uncertainty quantification with epistemic and aleatoric decomposition, and (3) epistemic uncertainty-augmented training to improve lesion detection. Two public datasets, AutoPET-III (1,611 scans) and Deep-PSMA (200 scans), comprising FDG and PSMA studies across multiple cancer types, are used for training and evaluation. Bayesian ensembling improves robustness and performance over deterministic nnU-Net models on the unseen AutoPET-III test set. Uncertainty maps highlight regions of model disagreement and correlate with misclassifications, particularly false positives. Uncertainty-augmented training improves lesion recovery at the cost of increased FPVol, reflecting a precision-recall trade-off. A case-adaptive routing strategy further improves Dice by selecting between the base and augmented models. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically investigate uncertainty quantification in multi-tracer, pan-cancer PET/CT segmentation and to combine Bayesian ensembling with uncertainty-aware modeling for this task.
Integrating Out, Twice:The Open-System Case That Neural-Network Ensemble Theory Is Missing
Averaging a neural network over its random parameters and marginalizing a Gaussian sector are the same operation, the Schur complement of the eliminated block, and when that block is closed it returns a covariance and its inverse. That is all a network ensemble produces, the closed case. The open case is missing, and nuclear reaction theory has it worked out. Projecting a scattering problem onto a chosen set of channels, with the rest carrying probability irreversibly to a continuum, leaves a non-Hermitian effective generator that conserves and itemizes exactly what it loses: the nuclear optical model and its generalized optical theorem. I set the two cases side by side using only the moments of a distribution, the algebra of Gaussians, and block inversion, no field theory, and give the closed-case dictionary in full: the neural tangent kernel is the Fisher sensitivity kernel, the infinite-width Gaussian limit is the Gaussian-process emulator, and the lazy-to-feature transition is the validity boundary of a reduced-basis emulator. I then test the open export on a truncated attention map, a token-level transfer operator, and a sparse expert router, and report a mostly negative result. The conserved flux ledger ports wherever openness is genuinely present, but its distinctive content is absent, an artifact of the chosen partition, or pinned near a floor by the training objective, and the operationally useful uncertainty turns out to be epistemic, living in the closed half of the correspondence, not the open one. The negative has a structural reason this note makes precise: the open case needs an eliminated sector with a continuous spectrum and wave-like, not relaxational, dynamics, which mainstream learning's finite or dissipative objects do not supply. This is a note, not a result; its main finding is that negative one, and its value is the map that locates it.
SHIELD-IDS: Structurally Heterogeneous Ensemble with Integrated Layered Defense for Intrusion Detection Systems
Adversarial attacks pose a serious and growing threat to Machine Learning (ML)-based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS), where imperceptible perturbations to network flow features can systematically mislead classifiers into accepting malicious traffic as benign. The IDS-Anta framework partially addresses this through Z-score normalization, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), and Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) classifier selection with Thompson Sampling, yet its classifier pool lacks sufficient structural diversity for robust adversarial resistance. This work introduces IDS-Anta++, which incorporates XGBoost and LightGBM gradient boosting models into the ensemble and wraps the extended pool in a three-layer black-box defense: Isolation Forest anomaly screening, median feature smoothing, and six-way majority voting. Experiments conducted on CIC-IDS-2017, CEC-CIC-IDS-2018, and CIC-DDoS-2019 under both Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and Zeroth Order Optimization (ZOO) attacks confirm detection accuracy above 99% on clean data, with measurable robustness gains under adversarial conditions relative to the baseline IDS-Anta configuration.
Tree-Based Formalization of Multi-Agent Complementarity in Human-AI Interactions
Complementarity is the case in which a human--AI interaction (HAI) outperforms the best prediction benchmark available among its members. Although this idea is central in HAI research, formal work on complementarity remains limited. Existing frameworks do not model how agents' predictions compose into workflow-sensitive multi-agent protocols. We close this gap by introducing a tree-based formalization of complementarity in multi-agent HAI. An HAI protocol is represented by an ordered agent-role configuration together with a rooted planar binary tree whose leaves are decorated by prediction vectors. A local binary composition rule is evaluated recursively along the tree, yielding a tree-relative complementarity functional relative to a pointwise-min oracle benchmark. We prove four results. First, selector-based HAIs, including self- or AI-reliance, cannot achieve complementarity regardless of task, loss, or prediction quality. Second, in regression under squared loss, complementarity is equivalent to Euclidean distance minimization from the ground-truth vector; for , the optimal linear-pooling weight has a closed form and a residual-correction interpretation. Third, under linear local composition, every protocol tree defines a barycentric coordinate chart on the simplex of leaf weights; Tamari-cover reparameterizations of protocol trees preserve complementarity, and for , they satisfy the pentagon identity. Fourth, in binary classification, no internal local composition can achieve complementarity under endpoint-monotone losses, including standard Bregman and many finite Bernoulli -divergence losses; an analogous obstruction holds for multiclass aggregation under cross-entropy. In summary, our framework shows that complementarity is attainable in multi-agent regression, but obstructed in classification under natural conditions on local aggregation and loss functions.
An Ensembled Latent Factor Model via Differential Evolution and Gradient Descent Optimization
High-dimensional and incomplete (HDI) data are prevalent in many real-world big data scenarios. Latent factor models serve as a common representation learning approach, capable of uncovering informative latent factors from such data. Nevertheless, most existing latent factor models rely solely on gradient descent for optimization, which may lead to insufficient and biased representations, particularly when dealing with heterogeneous HDI data. Thus, this study proposes an Ensembled Latent Factor Model via Differential Evolution and Gradient Descent Optimization (ELFM-DEGDO) with two-fold designed: 1) two diverse latent factor models are independently modeled via differential evolution and gradient descent optimization, respectively, and 2) the two diverse latent factor models are combined via a customized self-adaptive weighting mechanism to effectively fuse their strengths. By leveraging the complementary advantages of both optimization paradigms, ELFM-DEGDO is able to produce more comprehensive and less biased representations for HDI data. Three HDI datasets are tested to show that ELFM-DEGDO consistently performs better than related several latent factor models.
DLLG: Dynamic Logit-Level Gating of LLM Experts
Leveraging multiple specialized LLMs can combine complementary strengths, but existing approaches trade adaptability for stability: routing commits prematurely, heuristic ensembling depends on fragile proxies, and parameter merging introduces interference. We propose DLLG (Dynamic Logit-Level Gating), a dynamic logit-level ensembling framework that learns token-level expert fusion from sparse response-level supervision. A lightweight gating module predicts step-wise fusion weights, linking trajectory-level correctness to generation without token-level labels or expert retraining. Across diverse reasoning and code benchmarks, DLLG consistently outperforms strong routing, heuristic ensembling, and parameter-merging baselines across model scales, highlighting learned logit-level fusion as a robust and scalable paradigm for integrating specialized experts.
How Many Trees in a Random Forest? A Revisited Approach with Plateau Search and Optuna Integration
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary. Early-stopping strategies avoid fixing such a range, but can be sensitive to score noise and prone to premature stopping. To address this, we propose an integrated triplet-based plateau-search algorithm that removes the number of trees from the direct TPE search space and still exploits information accumulated across HPO trials. The method adaptively tracks a near-minimal sufficient ensemble size by monitoring relative changes in the out-of-bag (OOB) score across a triplet of forest sizes and shifting this triplet accordingly. This yields an automated and user-interpretable procedure based on a tolerance parameter. We also provide a theoretical analysis: we relate the proposed relative OOB-score criterion to the gap between the current and limiting scores, and derive an asymptotic variance estimate for the corresponding OOB-based absolute relative difference. Experiments show that the selected number of trees can differ substantially from the common heuristic: for most classical benchmark datasets it is smaller, whereas for some high-dimensional bioinformatics datasets, such as Arcene and Dorothea, it is larger. The source code and reproducible experiments are available at https://github.com/lange-am/rf_plateau_hpo.
A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for Multi-Task Prediction of the Parameters of the Pectin Hydrolysis--Extraction Process
This study addresses the challenge of controlling a complex, multi-parameter technological process -- pectin hydrolysis--extraction -- using machine learning methods. The experimental foundation is a unique database comprising 1,000 laboratory experiments conducted under controlled conditions on seven types of plant raw material with four variable process factors (temperature 85--130 C, pressure 0.9--2.2 atm, holding time 3--10 min, pH 1.5--2.0). Four output characteristics were recorded: pectin yield, galacturonic acid content, molecular weight, and degree of esterification. To solve the multi-task regression problem, 11 algorithms were trained and compared: regularised linear models, ensemble methods (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, Extra Trees), k-nearest neighbours, support vector regression, and a multilayer perceptron. The best results were demonstrated by CatBoost (average R-squared approximately 0.946 after hyperparameter optimisation). Feature importance analysis revealed the dominant role of the raw material type (63.6% of total importance), followed by temperature and holding time. The developed pipeline was exported in a production-ready format and deployed as an interactive web interface. The findings demonstrate that ensemble methods combined with rigorous statistical analysis and interpretable AI significantly reduce the need for physical experiments and form the basis for intelligent pectin production control.
A novel ordinal multi-view aggregation scheme for oak defoliation
Forest decline driven by climate and biotic stressors threatens ecosystem functioning, making accurate monitoring of tree health essential. In this work, we address tree defoliation estimation as an ordinal classification problem using ground-level imagery. We propose a novel multi-view ensemble framework that aggregates predictions from Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) trained on different perspectives of individual trees (north, south, and crown). This approach leverages complementary visual information while preserving modelling consistency through a homogeneous ensemble design. A comprehensive evaluation is conducted by comparing multiple ordinal classification methods and analysing the contribution of each view and their combinations. Results show that modelling the ordinal structure of defoliation levels improves performance over nominal approaches, while the proposed multi-view ensemble consistently outperforms single-view and pairwise configurations. In particular, the three-view ensemble achieves the most robust and accurate predictions across all evaluation metrics. These findings highlight the potential of combining Deep Learning (DL), Ordinal Classification (OC), and multi-view aggregation for scalable, consistent, and objective forest health assessment in complex ecosystems such as Mediterranean dehesas.
PINE: Pruning Boosted Tree Ensembles with Conformal In-Distribution Prediction Equivalence
Tree ensembles are machine learning models with strong predictive performance and interpretability, and remain widely used for tabular data. Standard pruning methods for tree ensembles typically optimize an accuracy-compression trade-off and may change a subset of predictions, potentially compromising decision consistency. Faithful pruning methods address this issue by preserving prediction equivalence over the entire input space, but this requirement leads to lower compression ratios. We propose PINE, a pruning method that provides strong guarantees within an in-distribution region. PINE preserves prediction equivalence within this region and controls the region size using a single parameter via conformal calibration. Experiments on 12 public tabular datasets show that PINE improves the compression ratio by up to 30% while preserving predictions at a comparable level to existing faithful pruning methods.
Customer Churn Prediction on Structured Data Using FT-Transformer and Stacking Ensembles
Customer churn prediction is essential across data-driven industries such as insurance, digital banking, eCommerce, and subscription platforms, where retaining existing customers is typically more cost-effective than acquiring new ones. Predicting churn on structured datasets remains challenging due to class imbalance, nonlinear feature interactions, and heterogeneous feature types. Tree-based ensemble methods consistently demonstrate strong performance in these contexts, often outperforming conventional neural networks. This study introduces a validated hybrid architecture that integrates feature-tokenized transformers (FT-Transformer) with gradient-boosted trees through calibration-aware stacking. The proposed framework addresses persistent gaps in statistical validation, probability calibration, and reproducibility found in prior research. The FT-Transformer captures higher-order feature interactions using self-attention, while XGBoost captures gradient-boosted decision boundaries with complementary inductive biases. Class imbalance is handled using class-weighted loss functions, thereby avoiding synthetic oversampling and preserving minority-class distributions. The models are ensembled using out-of-fold (OOF) stacking with a logistic regression meta-learner, which recalibrates overconfident base model outputs and learns optimal combination weights. On a public bank churn dataset, the hybrid model achieves 62.10% F1, 0.861 AUC-ROC, and 0.647 PR-AUC, outperforming the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) baseline by 3.37 F1 points and 0.027 AUC under 5x5 cross-validation with 95% confidence intervals reported. Ablation studies demonstrate that both the transformer component and stacking strategy contribute materially to performance. The proposed methodology offers a reproducible and extensible reference architecture for contemporary churn prediction on structured tabular data.
Self-Ensembling Vision-Language Models for Chart Data Extraction
Charts effectively convey quantitative information, but the underlying data are often locked in image form, hindering reuse and analysis. Manually digitizing charts is time-consuming and error-prone, motivating automatic chart-to-table extraction. Recent approaches use specialized vision-language models (VLMs), yet performance still lags on charts with many datapoints or substantial stylistic variation. We propose a VLM self-ensembling method that repeatedly samples multiple tabular outputs from the same VLM for a fixed chart image and aggregates them at the level of individual table cells. We align candidate tables and take per-cell medians over numerical values to produce a more accurate consensus table. Our method also includes convergence detection to stop sampling once the aggregated table stabilizes, and uncertainty estimation based on dispersion across samples to help users assess extraction reliability. Because existing chart extraction benchmarks contain relatively simple plots with limited room for improvement, we introduce WB-ChartExtract, a new benchmark built from World Bank data with more complex and stylistically diverse charts; on average, its charts contain 7 times more datapoints than those in the ChartQA benchmark. Across both ChartQA and WB-ChartExtract, our approach improves extraction accuracy over single-pass VLM outputs, yielding up to 23% relative improvement on WB-ChartExtract after ensembling. More broadly, our method helps unlock tabular data previously siloed in chart images, enabling downstream analysis and reuse.
CART Random Forests as Sequential Allocation over Random Opportunity Sets: A Stochastic-Control Theory of Ensemble Risk
CART random forests are among the most widely used modern predictive methods, with well-documented empirical success. Yet, at the mechanistic level, the algorithm is often treated as a black box because of its complexity. In this paper, we develop a stochastic-control perspective on feature-subsampled CART random forests, named CART random opportunity-set allocation (CART-ROSA). At each node, the random subset of features is interpreted as a random feasible action set, and the CART split rule as a masked-action allocation policy. This policy induces a controlled stochastic process over informative split-count states, whose terminal law determines both single-tree error and cross-tree interaction terms in the forest mean squared error (MSE). Such representation opens the black box of CART-forests by separating two design levers: the informative-opportunity rate induced by feature subsampling, and the contraction strength from the within-mask split policy. We establish that the CART policy is locally stabilizing: it contracts imbalances in informative split allocations and concentrates terminal tree geometry. At the system level, however, it can be globally suboptimal for the forest objective. Specializing to the linear model, we derive the MSE risk expansion explicitly. Our results show how an operations-research perspective makes tractable a theoretical gap difficult to access from the standard algorithmic description of CART forests.
Electricity Consumption Forecasting: An Approach Using Cooperative Ensemble Learning with SHapley Additive exPlanations
Electricity expense management presents significant challenges, as this resource is susceptible to various influencing factors. In universities, the demand for this resource is rapidly growing with institutional expansion and has a significant environmental impact. In this study, the machine learning models long short-term memory (LSTM), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were trained with historical consumption data from the Federal Institute of Paraná (IFPR) over the last seven years and climatic variables to forecast electricity consumption 12 months ahead. Datasets from two campuses were adopted. To improve model performance, feature selection was performed using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and hyperparameter optimization was carried out using genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results indicate that the proposed cooperative ensemble learning approach named Weaker Separator Booster (WSB) exhibited the best performance for datasets. Specifically, it achieved an sMAPE of 13.90% and MAE of 1990.87 kWh for the IFPR-Palmas Campus and an sMAPE of 18.72% and MAE of 465.02 kWh for the Coronel Vivida Campus. The SHAP analysis revealed distinct feature importance patterns across the two IFPR campuses. A commonality that emerged was the strong influence of lagged time-series values and a minimal influence of climatic variables.
Partial Fusion of Neural Networks: Efficient Tradeoffs Between Ensembles and Weight Aggregation
Ensembles of neural networks typically outperform individual networks but incur large computational costs, whereas weight aggregation produces less costly, yet also less accurate, aggregate models. We introduce partial fusion of networks, which interpolates between ensembles and weight aggregation and thus allows for a flexible tradeoff between computational cost and performance. A direct way to achieve this is to extend existing weight aggregation methods based on neuron-level similarity between different networks, where partial fusion then only aggregates weights of neurons which are most similar. We showcase one particular method to jointly identify which neurons are most similar and match them via partial optimal transport. Further, we consider the more general perspective of weight aggregation and partial fusion as generalized pruning of ensemble models, where neurons cannot just be deleted, but also linearly combined. Finally, we show that generalized pruning applied to a single network yields similar benefits as partial fusion by allowing for a tradeoff between isolating, deleting, and linearly combining neurons based on similarity. Our code is available at https://github.com/Fabian-Mor/partial_fusion_nn.
FruitEnsemble: MLLM-Guided Arbitration for Heterogeneous ensemble in Fine-Grained Fruit Recognition
Fine-grained fruit classification is a critical yet challenging task in agricultural computer vision, primarily hindered by a severe shortage of high-quality datasets and the high visual similarity between classes. To address these challenges, we first constructed a comprehensive dataset comprising 306 fruit categories with 116,233 samples. Moreover, we propose FruitEnsemble, a practical two-stage dynamic inference framework designed to overcome the generalization limitations of static single-model architectures. In the first stage, FruitEnsemble employs a validation-calibrated weighted ensemble of heterogeneous backbones to generate a robust Top-3 candidate pool. To tackle difficult samples, we introduce an expert arbitration mechanism: when ensemble confidence falls below 0.6, a multimodal large language model (MLLM) is triggered to perform rigorous visual verification by integrating external botanical descriptions using Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. Furthermore, we optimized the training pipeline with a hard sample-aware joint loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FruitEnsemble achieves a classification accuracy of 70.49% and outperforms existing state-of-the-art models. Our framework provides an efficient, deployment-oriented solution for real-world agricultural visual sorting and quality inspection tasks.
Decision-Path Patterns as Tree Reliability Signals: Path-based Adaptive Weighting for Random Forest Classification
Random forests construct each tree with a different, randomised representation of the feature space. Their uniform voting cannot correct errors in regions where trees with incorrect representations probabilistically outnumber correct ones, even when the ensemble collectively holds enough correct information - a reducible error that this paper addresses. We propose using the structural pattern of each tree's decision path as an instance-adaptive reliability signal to identify and differentially weight the more reliable trees. At inference, a random forest reaches its prediction through the root-to-leaf path the sample traverses in each tree, so path-level reliability offers a finer granularity than tree-level weighting can access. We show that this signal reflects the actual reliability of each tree's decision, and that using it yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks (Wilcoxon p < 0.0001). Class-recall regression - the typical failure mode of RF correction methods - is measured: zero minority-recall regressions and a single majority-recall regression at the 0.2 pp threshold, indicating bias reduction rather than a class trade-off. We further quantify the reducible error accessible to the method from the fitted RF alone; this estimate correlates strongly with per-dataset gain (Pearson r = +0.840, p < 0.0001). On the qualifying group it identifies, the method delivers a mean +0.99 pp accuracy improvement with strict wins on every dataset (7/0/0); an optional amplification mechanism further raises this to +1.48 pp.
SAGE: Scalable Automatic Gating Ensemble for Confident Negative Harvesting in Fraud Detection
Music streaming fraud, where bad actors artificially inflate stream counts to manipulate chart rankings and royalty payments, poses a significant threat to streaming services and legitimate content creators. Traditional fraud detection approaches struggle with a critical challenge: many legitimate edge cases, including super-fans and sleep-music sessions, exhibit activity patterns that closely mimic those of coordinated fraud. We present SAGE, a novel counterfactual-aware negative harvesting approach that combines SimHash-based stratified sampling with a modular gating ensemble for confident negative identification from unlabeled data. Our ensemble architecture employs pluggable statistical gates (currently instantiated with Mahalanobis distance and k-NN density) with configurable voting thresholds enabling adaptive precision-recall trade-offs. This addresses the representation bias problem in Positive-Unlabeled learning by ensuring comprehensive coverage of rare behavioral cohorts through floor-constrained sampling. Evaluation demonstrates strong precision and recall on held-out data. The approach generalizes across fraud detection domains, achieving strong performance on both customer-level and artist-level fraud without modification to the core methodology.
A Family of Divergence Measures for Evaluating the Reconstruction Quality of Explainable Ensemble Trees
Validating interpretable surrogate models for ensemble learners requires measuring agreement between the ensemble's internal representation and its surrogate approximation, rather than mere association. Correlation-based approaches are scale-invariant and fail to detect systematic discrepancies in co-occurrence structure. We propose a statistical framework grounded in the agreement-association distinction, centered on the normalized Loss of Interpretability (nLoI). Rooted in the Cressie-Read power divergence family with lambda equal to 2, the nLoI admits a closed-form decomposition into within-node and between-node components, providing a unique diagnostic capability to identify precisely where and why reconstruction fails. The framework incorporates four complementary measures capturing distinct structural facets of approximation quality. A unified permutation testing procedure delivers valid inference for all measures within a single resampling pass. Theoretical properties, including boundedness and symmetry, are established for each metric. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical evaluations confirm exact Type I error control and demonstrate that these measures detect reconstruction fidelity gradients invisible to correlation-based alternatives. The framework is developed and illustrated in the context of Explainable Ensemble Trees (E2Tree), and empirical evaluation on three benchmark datasets illustrates the practical utility of the framework.
Multi-Head Attention as Ensemble Nadaraya-Watson Estimation: Variance Reduction, Decorrelation, and Optimal Head Diversity
We develop a rigorous statistical theory of multi-head attention (MHA) as an ensemble of Nadaraya-Watson (NW) kernel regression estimators. Building on the algebraic identity between single-head softmax attention and the NW estimator, we prove that MHA is a structured ensemble of H NW estimators, each operating in a distinct learned projection subspace of the key space. We derive an explicit Bias-Variance-Covariance decomposition of the MHA mean squared error, showing that variance reduction depends not merely on the number of heads H but fundamentally on the decorrelation of head outputs. Decorrelation is governed by the principal angles between learned projection subspaces: orthogonal projections yield maximum variance reduction; aligned projections yield none. We introduce the Head Diversity Index (HDI), a computable spectral measure of inter-head decorrelation, and prove that MHA mean squared error is monotonically decreasing in HDI. This provides the first rigorous theoretical explanation for the empirically observed specialization of attention heads. Under a fixed total-dimension budget D = H * d_k, we solve the optimal head-dimension allocation problem, deriving the MSE-minimizing pair (H*, d_k*) from data distribution and regression smoothness. The solution yields a new architectural scaling law: the optimal per-head dimension grows logarithmically with training set size, while the optimal number of heads grows nearly linearly with the total budget D. Our framework unifies three strands of prior work: the NW theory of single-head attention, the general weighting theory for ensemble learning, and the decorrelation-variance-reduction isomorphism between biological and computational ensembles. Multi-head attention is the Transformer's instantiation of a universal principle: identical agents plus diversity-enforcing mechanisms yields emergent optimality.
Ensembling Tabular Foundation Models - A Diversity Ceiling And A Calibration Trap
Tabular foundation models (TFMs) now match or beat tuned gradient-boosted trees on a growing fraction of tabular tasks, but no single TFM wins on every dataset. Ensembling is the go to fix here, and it works less well than expected. Six modern TFMs form a near-redundant pool: their mean pairwise Q-statistic is , close enough to that any convex combination is bounded above. We benchmark six ensemble strategies over six TFMs on 153 OpenML classification tasks. The best ensemble, two-level cascade stacking, buys accuracy over the strongest single TFM at the compute. A Friedman and Nemenyi analysis places three ensembles and the best base TFM in a single equivalence group; three other ensembles are significantly \emph{worse} than the best base. Stacking with a logistic-regression meta-learner is the most striking case: competitive accuracy and ROC-AUC, the worst log-loss rank among the ensembles. The meta-learner improves accuracy by sharpening class boundaries, which destroys calibration. We recommend greedy selection as the practical default.
Embedded ConvNet Ensembles: A Lightweight Approach to Recognize Arabic Handwritten Characters
Arabic Handwritten Character Recognition (AHCR) has recently advanced significantly with deep Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets). However, many models in the literature are deep and computationally expensive in terms of parameters and FLOPs, limiting their deployment on resource-constrained devices, which are increasingly common. This study addresses this gap by proposing a combination of lightweight embedded ConvNet models and ensemble learning techniques. Extensive experiments were conducted to identify best practices in AHCR, considering training hyperparameters, learning strategies, model choices, and ensemble methods. Results show that embedded models can achieve accuracy comparable to, or even surpassing, heavier architectures. Ensemble learning further enhances performance with only modest computational overhead, particularly under challenging training scenarios. Among the ensembling strategies, soft voting yielded the best overall results.