Ensemble Learning

Predictions from machine learning algorithms can vary across random seeds, inducing instability in downstream debiased machine learning estimators. We formalize random seed stability via a concentration condition and prove that subbagging guarantees stability for any bounded-outcome regression algorithm. We introduce a new cross-fitting procedure, adaptive cross-bagging, which simultaneously eliminates seed dependence from both nuisance estimation and sample splitting in debiased machine learning. Numerical experiments confirm that the method achieves the targeted level of stability whereas alternatives do not. Our method incurs a small computational penalty relative to standard practice whereas alternative methods incur large penalties.

Credit risk default prediction remains a cornerstone of risk management in the financial industry. The task involves estimating the likelihood that a borrower will fail to meet debt obligations, an objective critical for lending decisions, portfolio optimization, and regulatory compliance. Traditional machine learning models such as logistic regression and tree-based ensembles are widely adopted for their interpretability and strong empirical performance. However, modern credit datasets are high-dimensional, heterogeneous, and noisy, increasing overfitting risk in monolithic models and reducing robustness under distributional shift. We introduce STRIKE (Stacking via Targeted Representations of Isolated Knowledge Extractors), a feature-group-aware stacking framework for structured tabular credit risk data. Rather than training a single monolithic model on the complete dataset, STRIKE partitions the feature space into semantically coherent groups and trains independent learners within each group. This decomposition is motivated by an additive perspective on risk modeling, where distinct feature sources contribute complementary evidence that can be combined through a structured aggregation. The resulting group-specific predictions are integrated through a meta-learner that aggregates signals while maintaining robustness and modularity. We evaluate STRIKE on three real-world datasets spanning corporate bankruptcy and consumer lending scenarios. Across all settings, STRIKE consistently outperforms strong tree-based baselines and conventional stacking approaches in terms of AUC-ROC. Ablation studies confirm that performance gains stem from meaningful feature decomposition rather than increased model complexity. Our findings demonstrate that STRIKE is a stable, scalable, and interpretable framework for credit risk default prediction tasks.

In recent years, neural networks and other complex models have dominated recommender systems, often setting new benchmarks for state-of-the-art performance. Yet, despite these advancements, award-winning research has demonstrated that traditional matrix factorization methods can remain competitive, offering simplicity and reduced computational overhead. Hybrid models, which combine matrix factorization with newer techniques, are increasingly employed to harness the strengths of multiple approaches. This paper proposes a novel ensemble method that unifies user-item and item-item recommendations through a weighted similarity framework to deliver top-N recommendations. Our approach is distinctive in its use of shared user and item embeddings for both recommendation strategies, simplifying the architecture and enhancing computational efficiency. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets show that our method achieves competitive performance and is robust in varying scenarios that favor either user-item or item-item recommendations. Additionally, by eliminating the need for embedding-specific fine-tuning, our model allows for the seamless reuse of hyperparameters from the base algorithm without sacrificing performance. This results in a method that is both efficient and easy to implement. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/UFSCar-LaSID/weighted-sims-recommender.

The rapid proliferation of AI-Generated Images (AIGIs) poses severe misinformation risks, making AIGI detection critical yet challenging. Traditional detection paradigms mainly rely on low-level features, whereas recent research increasingly focuses on leveraging the general understanding ability of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to achieve better generalization, yet it still suffers from limited extensibility and expensive data annotations. Instead of building yet another detector, we recast AIGI detection as learned, reasoning-based evidence synthesis over a pool of heterogeneous off-the-shelf detectors, realized through EvoGuard, a novel agentic framework. A capability-aware selection mechanism profiles each detector and gathers complementary evidence per sample; a dynamic orchestration mechanism then reasons over heterogeneous outputs across multiple rounds, cross-validating conflicting or low-confidence signals before concluding. This design exploits the complementary strengths among heterogeneous detectors, transcending the limits of any single model. Furthermore, optimized by a GRPO-based Agentic Reinforcement Learning algorithm using only low-cost binary labels, it eliminates the reliance on fine-grained annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that this learned reasoning paradigm outperforms single-detector and static ensembling, achieving SOTA accuracy while mitigating the bias between positive and negative samples. More importantly, it allows the plug-and-play integration of new detectors to boost overall performance in a train-free manner, offering a highly practical, long-term solution to ever-evolving AIGI threats. Source code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Artificial intelligence built on large foundation models has transformed language understanding, computer vision, and reasoning, yet these systems remain isolated and cannot readily share their capabilities. Coordinating the complementary strengths of independently developed, black-box foundation models is essential for trustworthy intelligent systems, yet no established method exists. Here we show that such coordination can be achieved through a meta-ensemble framework termed StackingNet, which aggregates the output predictions of independent models at inference. StackingNet improves accuracy, reduces individual-model error and group-wise disparities, ranks model reliability, and identifies or prunes models that degrade performance, all without access to internal parameters or training data. Across language comprehension, visual attribute estimation, and academic paper rating, it consistently outperforms individual models and classic ensembles, with gains that persist when the base models are uniformly strong. These gains stem from variance reduction and consensus alignment among independent models rather than from any emergent group cognition, and they widen as the model pool grows more diverse. By turning model diversity from a source of inconsistency into a resource for cooperation, StackingNet offers a practical path toward coordinated artificial intelligence, where progress emerges not only from larger single models but from principled cooperation among many specialized ones.

Accurate production forecasts are essential for the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation using gradient boosting trees and an ensemble of weather forecasts. To this end, we perform a comparative analysis across three state-of-the-art probabilistic prediction methods-conformalized quantile regression, natural gradient boosting and conditional diffusion models-all of which can be combined with tree-based machine learning. The methods are validated using four years of data for all Belgian offshore wind farms. We benchmark the models against the power curve and a calibrated wake model as well as a probabilistic method using stochastic variational Gaussian process regression. The tree-based models significantly reduce the mean absolute error in comparison to the deterministic baselines. Additionally, all three methods outperform the Gaussian process baseline in probabilistic skill, while two out of the three also improve point forecast accuracy. The conditional diffusion model attains the best performance, with improvements of 5% in mean absolute error and 12% in continuous rank probability score compared to the probabilistic baseline. Last, the results indicate an average improvement in point forecast accuracy of 17% by using an ensemble of weather forecasts instead of a single provider.

Numerous studies on Boosting attempt to mitigate classification bias caused by class imbalance. However, existing studies have yet to explore the collaborative optimization of imbalanced learning and model training. This constraint hinders further performance improvements. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a collaborative optimization Boosting model of multiclass imbalanced learning. By integrating the density factor and the confidence factor, this model implements a noise-resistant weight update mechanism alongside a dynamic sampling strategy. Rather than functioning as independent components, these modules are tightly integrated to orchestrate weight updates, sample region partitioning, and region-guided sampling. Thus, this study proposes the collaborative optimization of imbalanced learning and model training. Extensive experiments on 40 public imbalanced datasets demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms seven state-of-the-art baselines. The code and datasets for this paper are available at: https://github.com/ChuantaoLi/DARG.

We provide a unified algorithmic framework for ensemble sampling in nonlinear contextual bandits and develop corresponding regret bounds for two most common nonlinear contextual bandit settings: Generalized Linear Model Ensemble Sampling (GLM-ES) for generalized linear contextual bandits and Neural Ensemble Sampling (Neural-ES) for neural contextual bandits. Both methods maintain multiple estimators for the reward model parameters via maximum likelihood estimation on randomly perturbed data. We prove high-probability frequentist regret bounds of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{3/2} \sqrt{T} + d^{4})$ for GLM-ES and $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\widetilde{d}^{3/2} \sqrt{T})$ for Neural-ES, where $d$ is the dimension of feature vectors, $\widetilde{d}$ is the effective dimension of a neural tangent kernel (NTK) matrix and $T$ is the number of rounds. The regret bound of GLM-ES matches the state-of-the-art result of randomized exploration algorithms in generalized linear bandit setting. In the theoretical analysis, we introduce techniques that address challenges specific to nonlinear models. Practically, we remove fixed-time horizon assumption by developing anytime versions of our algorithms, suitable when $T$ is unknown. Finally, we empirically evaluate GLM-ES, Neural-ES and their anytime variants, demonstrating strong performance. Overall, our results establish ensemble sampling as a provable and practical randomized exploration approach for nonlinear contextual bandits.

Limited-Area Models (LAMs) enable weather forecasting over regional domains at higher resolutions than what is computationally feasible for global models. At such high resolutions, machine learning approaches for weather prediction increasingly rely on ensemble methods to produce probabilistic forecasts. However, existing machine learning LAMs are not scalable due to relying on computationally costly diffusion models or inefficient graph neural networks. We tackle this by introducing a new hybrid CNN/GNN architecture, tailored to the LAM weather forecasting problem. Using this architecture, we construct the DET-LAM deterministic model, producing LAM forecasts both more efficiently and accurately than its graph-based competitor. We then tackle the ensemble forecasting problem, by using this architecture as a backbone for the generative model CRPS-LAM. CRPS-LAM is trained using a Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) objective, enabling efficient training and sampling in a single forward pass. This yields a speedup of $\approx \times 39$ compared to diffusion-based baselines. We evaluate our approach on regional domains in northern Europe, demonstrating that CRPS-LAM produces skillful and well-calibrated forecasts across a range of atmospheric variables.

Deep learning has become increasingly important in remote sensing image classification due to its ability to extract semantic information from complex data. Classification tasks often include predefined label hierarchies that represent the semantic relationships among classes. However, these hierarchies are frequently overlooked, and most approaches focus only on fine-grained classification schemes. In this paper, we present a novel Semantics-Aware Hierarchical Consensus (SAHC) approach that integrates hierarchical-level-specific classification heads within a deep network architecture and combines their output through cross-level probability projectors. Direct and projected predictions are fused into a geometric consensus distribution, which is used for self-consistent training and optional hierarchy-aware inference. This mechanism acts as a geometric ensemble that leverages the inherent structure of the hierarchical classification task. The projectors are initialized from the user-defined taxonomy (i.e., the hierarchical label structure), and can be adaptively refined during optimization. The proposed SAHC method is evaluated on two benchmark datasets with different degrees of hierarchical complexity on different tasks, considering varying spectral and spatial resolutions. Experimental results show both the effectiveness of the proposed approach in guiding network learning and the robustness of the hierarchical consensus for remote sensing image classification tasks. The source code is available at https://github.com/rslab-unitrento/sahc.

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, those models still rely on initial conditions from NWP, putting an upper limit on their forecast abilities. A few end-to-end systems have since been proposed, but they have yet to match the forecast skill of state-of-the-art NWP competitors. In this work, we propose Huracan, an observation-driven weather forecasting system which combines an ensemble data assimilation model with a forecast model to produce highly accurate forecasts relying only on observations as inputs. Huracan is not only the first to provide ensemble initial conditions and end-to-end ensemble weather forecasts, but also the first end-to-end system to achieve an accuracy comparable with that of ECMWF ENS, the state-of-the-art NWP competitor, despite using a smaller amount of available observation data. Notably, Huracan matches or exceeds the continuous ranked probability score of ECMWF ENS on 80.2% of the variable and lead time combinations. Our work is a major step forward in end-to-end data-driven weather prediction and opens up opportunities for further improving and revolutionizing operational weather forecasting.

Real-time safety assessment is critical for ensuring the reliable operation of complex dynamic systems. However, obtaining full safety labels in real time is often prohibitively expensive, resulting in a challenging mixed-feedback scenario dominated by partial feedback, especially under concept drift. Furthermore, existing online ensemble methods typically rely on heuristic weight allocation, lacking provable performance guarantees under such limited-feedback conditions. To address these challenges, we propose PB-OEL, a performance-bounded online ensemble learning framework designed for real-time safety assessment under mixed feedback. At the ensemble level, a theoretical framework is established to bound the performance of the ensemble classifier relative to its base classifiers across varying feedback ratios. By formally defining the form of expert advice, the bound guarantees that the ensemble outperforms any individual base classifier over a sufficiently large data stream. At the base-classifier level, a penalty-based update strategy is introduced, enabling base models to explicitly leverage misclassified samples rather than simply discarding them. Extensive experiments on the real-world Jiaolong manned submersible dataset demonstrate that PB-OEL maintains robust predictive performance and outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Ensemble learning is a method that leverages weak learners to produce a strong learner. However, obtaining a large number of base learners requires substantial time and computational resources. Therefore, it is meaningful to study how to achieve the performance typically obtained with many base learners using only a few. We argue that to achieve this, it is essential to enhance both classification performance and generalization ability during the ensemble process. To increase model accuracy, each weak base learner needs to be more efficiently integrated. It is observed that different base learners exhibit varying levels of accuracy in predicting different classes. To capitalize on this, we introduce confidence tensors $\tilde{\mathbfΘ}$, where $\tilde{\mathbfΘ}_{rst}$ signifies the degree of confidence that the $t$-th base classifier assigns the sample to class $r$ while it actually belongs to class $s$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time an evaluation of the performance of base classifiers across different classes has been proposed. The proposed confidence tensor compensates for the strengths and weaknesses of each base classifier in different classes, enabling the method to achieve superior results with a smaller number of base learners. To enhance generalization performance, we design a smooth and partially convex objective function that leverages the concept of margin, making the strong learner more discriminative. Furthermore, it is proved that in the gradient matrix of the loss function, the sum of each column's elements is zero, allowing us to solve a constrained optimization problem using gradient-based methods.

Voice-based interfaces rely on a wake-up word mechanism to initiate communication with devices. However, achieving a robust, energy-efficient, and fast detection remains a challenge. This paper addresses these real production needs by enhancing data with temporal alignments and using detection based on two phases with multi-resolution. It employs two models: a lightweight on-device model for real-time processing of the audio stream and a verification model on the server-side, which is an ensemble of heterogeneous architectures that refine detection. This scheme allows the optimization of two operating points. To protect privacy, audio features are sent to the cloud instead of raw audio. The study investigated different parametric configurations for feature extraction to select one for on-device detection and another for the verification model. Furthermore, thirteen different audio classifiers were compared in terms of performance and inference time. The proposed ensemble outperforms our stronger classifier in every noise condition.

Building trustworthy machine learning algorithms for biological applications requires adapting to data heterogeneity from different sources, batches, distributions, or studies. We propose the 'Cross-Cluster Weighted Forest' (CCWF), an ensembling approach that explicitly leverages heterogeneity in the feature distribution to produce more accurate and more generalizable predictors than the standard Random Forest in cases when data can be naturally clustered. CCWF generalizes the RF architecture to an outer unsupervised layer, supervised subtasks, and ensembling. Specifically it involves unsupervised clustering of the training data, fitting a Random Forest on each cluster, and combining the forests via stacked regression weights that reward cross-cluster generalizability. We provide a theoretical analysis of an analytically tractable forest model showing that cluster-based ensembling is asymptotically more accurate than training a single forest on the full data, with the gain driven by bias reduction. In simulations, we find that CCWF is robust across data-generating regimes and outcome models; furthermore, we explore the influence of data partitioning and ensemble weighting strategies on the benefits of our method. Finally, we apply our approach to cancer molecular profiling and gene expression datasets that are naturally divisible into clusters; in both simulations and real data examples, we illustrate that our approach outperforms classic Random Forest by margins of 30-40%, aligning with our theoretical results. Overall, we show that CCWF provides a statistically grounded prediction algorithm for data spanning multiple domains or sub-populations, a structure common in biological applications.

Selecting an appropriate classification algorithm for a given data set remains a challenging problem in data mining and machine learning. Existing algorithm recommendation models are typically trained with individual learners and rely on only one type of meta-feature, which may limit their ability to capture the diverse characteristics of classification problems. This paper proposes a multi-view ensemble meta-learning framework for classification algorithm recommendation. The framework constructs base recommendation models from different combinations of heterogeneous meta-feature groups and combines them through an accuracy- and diversity-aware ensemble strategy. The main focus of this work is empirical: we evaluate the proposed method on 1,090 benchmark classification problems derived from 84 public data sets, using 13 widely used candidate classification algorithms and five types of meta-features. The experimental results show that the proposed ensemble recommendation method consistently improves ranking loss, average precision, and top-ranked recommendation precision over individual recommendation models. These results suggest that combining complementary meta-feature views is an effective strategy for robust classification algorithm recommendation.