Exponential Horizon Dependence

We formulate and analyze the linear exponential quadratic Gaussian (LEQG) covariance steering problem in continuous time over a given deadline (finite time horizon). The solution for this problem can be seen as a risk-sensitive Schr"{o}dinger bridge between Gaussian endpoints in the linear quadratic setting. Unlike the risk-neutral case, the LEQG covariance steering controller--still a linear state feedback--can no longer be written in closed form. We show that the optimal controller is parameterized by a symmetric matrix solving an algebraic equation that encodes the implicit dependence on the risk-sensitivity parameter. We explain how the structure of this optimal controller significantly generalizes the existing results for the risk-neutral case. Building on these results, for the matched noise and input channel case, we prove the existence-uniqueness of solution for the LEQG covariance steering problem in the neighborhood of the known risk-neutral optimal solution. We give an illustrative numerical example.

We study constrained online convex optimization with adversarial constraints and conditionally unbiased, finite-variance observations of constraint values and gradients. Under common feasibility, our \LEDGER\ algorithm attains $O(\sqrt T)$ expected regret and $O(\sqrt{T\log(eT)})$ expected budget violation, the largest cumulative overspend over any window. It uses a reflected exponential potential, clipped signed observations, and predictable adaptive regularization, with one feedback triple and one projection per round. Neither a Slater condition, independence between feedback channels, nor an absolute constraint-value bound is needed. A Gaussian testing lower bound proves that the budget rate has optimal horizon dependence under square-root regret at fixed positive noise, including the logarithm. The same obstruction holds for terminal violation, so the logarithm is not a cost of maximizing over windows; an $O(\sqrt T)$ budget bound instead forces linear regret. In contrast, fixed positive Gaussian value noise yields a joint regret--hard-violation lower bound of $Ω(\min\{σ,1\}T/\log^2 T)$, even with exact gradients in one dimension. The hard-violation construction matches arbitrarily many moments while preserving a feasible-endpoint gap and constant endpoint probabilities. Together, the bounds separate uncertainty about hard feasibility from learnable signed budgets. Deterministic restarts remove the horizon input without changing either upper rate.

Gradient flow is widely used as a continuous-time surrogate for gradient descent, but state convergence does not imply convergence of differentiated training maps in nonsmooth networks. We characterize the fixed-horizon, vanishing-step limit of exact automatic differentiation through hard-ReLU gradient descent. Under a stable finite itinerary of separated, same-direction transverse activation events, gradient-descent states converge at first order to the corresponding piecewise-smooth gradient flow, while the exact derivative of every nonresonant discrete program converges to an event-free regional propagator. The true flow derivative instead interleaves classical saltation matrices that encode event-time sensitivity. For globally convex objectives, any strict activation event prevents complete cancellation of these missing transfers. Moreover, minimal globally 1-strongly convex residual-ReLU risks can realize arbitrarily large reciprocal sensitivity gaps, subject to an explicit transversality-scale tradeoff, and a coupled strongly convex construction yields an open set on which the largest initialization-gradient coordinate is reversed. In a controlled 17-parameter ReLU MLP, state and regional-AD errors vanish under mesh refinement while AD-to-flow errors remain between 0.18 and 0.39; an event-aware corrected product restores convergence. Resolved smoothing likewise recovers the flow sensitivity when the transition layer is sufficiently resolved. These results show that the gradient-flow limit of hard-ReLU training need not remain valid after differentiation.

In evolutionary search, a weak child can be a valuable ancestor that makes high-fitness regions reachable. Immediate-return control is blind to this delayed utility, penalizing mutations through their immediate offspring even when they open productive future lineages. We formalize this hidden dynamic as the time value of evolution within a finite-horizon Markov decision process. To exploit it, we introduce Lineage-Value Policy Gradients (LVPG), a long-horizon actor-critic framework for automated trading policy discovery. Our architecture decouples search control into specialized policy heads over a shared generative backbone: a bootstrapped critic head estimates the value of finite-horizon lineage potential from multi-step mutation trees, while an actor head dynamically modulates mutation intensity over the remaining search budget. We isolate the impact of long-horizon credit assignment against immediate-return optimization across 90 paired runs under matched operators, lineage supervision, folds, seeds, and budgets. Path-based credit assignment substantially accelerates finite-budget search, increasing validation best-so-far AUC by 0.394 Sharpe units. LVPG also produces fewer temporary regressions than immediate-return optimization and recovers from them more often. Finite-horizon lineage value yields more selective non-monotonic search and stronger policies within identical resource constraints.

Systems that automate scientific discovery must repeatedly decide which experiment to run, which hypothesis to test, which tool to build, and when to stop. Many systems make these decisions by maximizing a myopic score such as expected information gain per unit cost or a learned plausibility score. We identify a structural limitation of this approach. Some actions are constructive: they acquire an epistemic capability (an instrument, assay, pipeline, simulator, or abstraction) whose value lies not in the information returned immediately but in the future actions it makes available. When the least-cost route to a confident answer requires a chain of such constructions, a planner that scores actions only by information obtainable within a bounded horizon cannot value the first construction: it yields no information within the horizon and is dominated by any measurement with positive information, however small. We formulate goal-directed discovery as a stochastic shortest-path problem in belief space in which constructive experiments change the downstream action graph, and prove that for every lookahead depth d there is an instance on which every myopic information-maximizing planner has an unbounded approximation ratio, and a related instance on which it never reaches the goal. The mechanism is a capability-indistinguishability lemma: within the horizon, acquiring a capability can be observationally indistinguishable from paying for a null action. This establishes capability gating as a reachability axis of difficulty distinct from curvature (submodularity) and information order (adaptivity gaps). We introduce CG-Plan, an incremental replanner with a capability-aware cost-to-go heuristic h = h_cap + h_exp. In a controlled testbed, the performance gap appears only under gating, persists for every fixed horizon, and arises when near-miss hypotheses come from a data-consistent proposer.

Maximizing throughput under proportional fairness in dense wireless networks requires jointly managing user association, scheduling, base station (BS) activation, and handover control under hard finite-horizon energy and handover budgets, which induces a fundamental tension between BS-side energy management and user-side handover regulation. While multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is a natural framework for such distributed sequential control, its application here faces two difficulties: finite-horizon budget constraints cannot be evaluated at each time slot, and the nonlinear proportional fairness utility admits no principled per-slot decomposition. We propose HeLyMARL, a Lyapunov-embedded heterogeneous MARL framework that resolves both via drift-plus-penalty decomposition with virtual queues. The energy and handover constraint pressures are internalized directly into a unified per-slot reward, converting the constrained finite-horizon problem into an unconstrained MARL problem. Comparison against two Lagrangian-based alternatives reveals a timescale separation: Lagrangian relaxation regulates constraints only across training episodes, whereas the virtual queues of HeLyMARL bound cumulative budget consumption at every partial horizon within an episode, a pacing guarantee beyond the reach of greedy Lyapunov-based control. Simulations show that HeLyMARL is the only method that sustains the throughput-fairness balance together with uninterrupted service throughout the horizon, outperforming conventional MARL, Lyapunov-based, and constrained MARL benchmarks without premature budget exhaustion.

Organizations increasingly rely on sequential experimentation to improve decision-making. While the multi-armed bandit literature has developed algorithms with strong asymptotic regret guarantees, many practical applications operate over finite and externally imposed horizons. Motivated by the finite-horizon setting, we develop a class of regularized greedy algorithms for multi-armed Bernoulli bandits. We derive the first finite-horizon regret envelopes for regularized greedy bandits, showing that finite-horizon regret decomposes into transient exploration costs and a suboptimal convergence term that decays exponentially with the regularization strength. This characterization yields principled calibration rules for the regularization parameters and, as a limiting case, sharper regret guarantees for the classical greedy policy. Across extensive numerical experiments, calibrated regularized greedy policies consistently match or outperform state-of-the-art algorithms. These results suggest that regularized greedy policies can provide an effective approach for finite-horizon bandit problems.

Safety-critical IoT systems such as industrial closed-loop control, V2X coordination, and remote teleoperation require every sensor's peak Age of Information (peak AoI, also abbreviated PAoI) to stay below a hard per-slot deadline, not merely an average bound. Existing approaches meet this requirement only under restrictive assumptions: stochastic channels for Whittle-index AoI, simulator rollouts for deep reinforcement learning, or sublinear cumulative violation for long-term constrained online convex optimization. Under adversarial coefficients, OCO-PAoI-Hard guarantees zero per-slot violation of the modeled AoI state under one-step viability and O(sqrt(T)) regret against any static safe comparator; packet-level safety requires stronger service assumptions. Our key observation is that the fractional peak-AoI deadline collapses exactly to an affine half-space constraint on the resource-allocation vector, turning hard real-time scheduling into time-varying constrained online convex optimization over a polyhedral safe set. A strictly causal proposal-shield-update loop enforces feasibility through one Euclidean projection per slot, the gradient step preserves no-regret behavior, and the classical virtual queue is reduced to an a-posteriori certificate. We establish closed-form static and dynamic regret bounds, a matching Omega(sqrt(T)) minimax lower bound, a margin-safe variant against execution noise, and a deadline-induced competitive ratio. On a four-sensor adversarial fluid-model trap channel, OCO-PAoI-Hard attains zero modeled-state deadline violations across all ten seeds, while four representative baselines miss between 1.65 percent and 64.0 percent of slots, and the empirical normalized regret stays below the theoretical envelope across two orders of magnitude in T.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents achieve strong performance in complex environments, yet their decision-making processes remain difficult to interpret. We introduce SPOT (Sampling Policy Observation Tree), a novel model-agnostic, sampling-based framework for interpreting DRL policies. Given access to the policy and an environment simulator, SPOT constructs an interpretable finite-horizon tree by sampling actions and recursively simulating the resulting successor states. The tree provides an empirical representation of the policy's action preferences and their possible downstream evolution. We provide formal guarantees establishing SPOT's asymptotic recovery of the policy's unique most probable action and characterizing its disagreement behavior under high-entropy policies. We demonstrate SPOT in the SUMO-RL traffic-signal control domain. The case study illustrates how its tree-based representation can be used to inspect policy preferences, compare alternative future trajectories, and reveal downstream behaviors that are not visible through single-timestep feature-attribution methods.

Effective decision-making in complex and changing environments requires balancing short-term and long-term consequences. In reinforcement learning (RL), this trade-off is typically controlled through a fixed discount factor, which imposes a single exponentially discounted temporal horizon. However, biological agents exhibit flexible and adaptive temporal discounting, suggesting that effective planning requires multiple timescales. Here, we propose a multi-horizon approach that adaptively selects and combines temporal horizons, enabling robust adaptation to changes in reward structure without manual discount-factor tuning. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for continual learning scenarios involving task switches and varying environmental configurations. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach identifies effective discount factors across a range of MiniGrid environments, including continual settings composed of three sequentially changing tasks. These results suggest that adaptive temporal discounting can improve parameter efficiency and enhance adaptability in both artificial and biologically inspired learning systems.

We study horizon-free regret minimization for finite-horizon time-homogeneous tabular Markov decision processes with $S$ states, $A$ actions, horizon $H$, and per-trajectory total reward bounded by $1$. We propose a new algorithm and prove a regret upper bound $$\tilde O(\sqrt{SAK}+S^8A^3)$$ with failure probability $δ$, where $K$ is the number of episodes and $\tilde O(\cdot)$ hides $\mathsf{poly}\log(S,A,K,1/δ)$. Thus, the regret is $H$-free and asymptotically optimal, matching the contextual-bandit lower bound $Ω(\sqrt{SAK})$ up to logarithmic factors. This completely removes the $\log H$ dependence from the previous $\tilde O(\sqrt{SAK\log H}+S^2A\log H)$ guarantee of Zhang et al. (2021), and drastically improves the prior best horizon-free regret $\tilde O(\sqrt{S^9A^3K})$ of Zhang et al. (2022) asymptotically. The main technical difficulty is that the optimal value functions $\{V_h^*\}_{h=1}^H$ are time-inhomogeneous even though the transition kernel is time-homogeneous. A direct union bound over all value functions typically incurs an additional $\min\{\log H,S\}$ factor. We avoid this factor by (i) exploiting the monotonicity of $V_h^*$ in $h$ and (ii) non-trivially projecting the value functions onto an $S$-dimensional grid. Our analysis relies on three additional ingredients. First, we introduce a horizon-truncation argument that enables reward-based exploration and removes the cost of a separate reward-free exploration phase. Second, we design a cutting bonus that preserves both optimism and the monotonicity needed for planning. Third, we prove a new bound on total deviation for time-homogeneous MDPs, which controls the clipped variance terms in the cutting bonus with adjustable polynomial dependence on $S$ and without any dependence on $H$. Together, these tools yield an asymptotically optimal horizon-free regret guarantee.

Safe adaptive control is online adaptation under a safety guarantee on the learning trajectory itself. The controller may use any causal, history-dependent rule and act differently across environments as data arrive. Only its safety guarantee is uniform: the same rule must satisfy it under every initially plausible model. Performance is measured against a safe oracle that knows the realized model. Many finite-time analyses assume persistent excitation of the uniformly safe closed loop, so the data distinguish every pair of models requiring different control decisions. Under that assumption, feasibility is already settled; only the rate remains. We ask instead: Do the safety constraints permit such an informative experiment at all? While an alternative remains plausible, the controller must preserve a safe continuation under it. We call the first action that forecloses such a continuation commitment. Chance safety allows commitment only on an event rare under the alternative, and the evidence must arrive beforehand: the observation generated by the committing action is too late. We define precommitment information as the KL divergence between learner-visible laws stopped before commitment. Our main result is a causal reduction. The commitment rule determines (1) the probability that safety permits commitment under the alternative, (2) the target-side cost of remaining noncommittal, (3) and the information available when the decision is made. Bounded precommitment information therefore leaves a fixed fraction of the oracle gap unavoidable. If the gap is Ω(T), every uniformly safe policy has linear regret. We establish the obstruction in a constrained linear system with quadratic regulation cost. We also prove recovery in special cases and derive semidefinite upper certificates for deterministic linear-Gaussian systems.

Planning under uncertainty in continuous domains is essential for autonomous systems, yet computationally demanding. Tree-based search methods such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) remain popular, but their branching structure can require sampling budgets that grow exponentially with lookahead depth in the worst case. From a tree perspective, continuous state or action spaces become especially challenging, since the planner must decide where to search in an infinite branching hierarchy. We propose Graph Sparse Sampling (GSS), an online planning algorithm that shares sampled futures across many candidate decisions, rather than sampling separate successors for each candidate action. This branch-free graph exposes large GPU-friendly batches, while using heuristics to focus computation. We prove finite-sample performance guarantees for GSS covering full-rank or low-rank generative simulators via smoothed backups, and discrete or sampled continuous action spaces. Under suitable overlap, regularity, and action-coverage conditions, these bounds have polynomial dependence on the planning horizon, formalizing when shared futures can avoid the exponential horizon dependence of tree-shaped sparse sampling. We demonstrate continuous-control simulations where GSS substantially outperforms tree-based planners on long horizons or achieves near-optimal performance, supporting no-branching graph planning as a complementary design principle for online control.

Learning accurate value functions plays a decisive role for reinforcement learning (RL) agents to solve long-horizon, complex tasks. Conventional temporal-difference (TD) learning objectives suffer from value-estimation bias that accumulates over the horizon, while extended-horizon modeling methods, such as n-step TD backups and Q-chunking, adopt a rigid, fixed-horizon value-modeling recipe that is often not flexible enough to capture complex value structures in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks. In this paper, we show that enabling value updates with dynamic horizon composition can yield a strong offline policy learning scheme. Our method, Horizon Adaptive Offline Policy Learning via VAlue STitching (VAST), replaces fixed-horizon backups with recursive, horizon-adaptive value composition. Its key ingredient is to couple value optimization with a future state- and horizon-length-conditioned auxiliary value function that is learned through direct data supervision, and a stitching policy that optimally selects the reward-maximizing horizon length and future sub-goal to achieve horizon-adaptive value stitching. This design enables direct estimation and compositional "stitching" of variable-length returns grounded in actionable sub-goal states, providing an accurate and greedily exploitable value-supervision signal for offline policy optimization. Across 50 tasks on OGBench, VAST outperforms fixed-step, extended-horizon methods, and generative-value offline RL baselines, achieving strong performance particularly in high-complexity, long-horizon decision-making tasks.

Finite-horizon optimal-control computations repeatedly solve two-point Pontryagin boundary value problems whose conditioning can deteriorate as the horizon grows. We give a verifiable data-level certificate under which it does not. Hyperbolicity of the reduced state--costate transition matrix, together with scaled stable--unstable boundary transversality, yields an endpoint-corrected Green inverse with horizon-independent constants and weighted contractions transfer this inverse to the nonlinear problem, so the original Pontryagin endpoint rows $x_0=x_{\rm in}$ and $p_T=r_x(x_T,y)$ carry a unique local stationary branch whose first-order expansion and Lipschitz constants are uniform in the horizon. Consequently the finite-horizon feedback map is horizon-uniformly Lipschitz, first-order expandable, and satisfies an exact shrinking-horizon consistency identity. Symplectic and Riccati criteria certify the hypotheses from matrix data: every stabilizable definite linear-quadratic system with invertible dynamics and a locally concave terminal Hessian at the reference qualifies. Reproducible computations illustrate both certificates.

Robots operating in non-stationary environments must continually adapt their policies as the dynamics drift, but onboard energy and compute budgets cap how often a full state estimation and re-planning step can be performed. This raises a question: \emph{when}, along a horizon, should a robot spend its limited budget? We formulate this problem in time-varying Markov decision processes (TVMDPs) with a known bound on the rate of transition drift. We model execution as a \emph{skip-update} scheme in which, at chosen update times, the agent estimates the transition kernel by maximum likelihood and computes a finite-horizon policy, and between updates reuses this policy under a propagated state estimate. We analyze the dynamic regret of this scheme and show how it grows during skip intervals in terms of the properties of the TVMDP and the skip lengths; the resulting bound answers the opening question via an online, regret-guided update rule that allocates the budget adaptively. We evaluate the rule in a simulated Mars-rover navigation task with time-varying slip dynamics and on a Crazyflie quadrotor in indoor obstacle fields. Adaptive allocation outperforms other budgeted baselines.

We introduce $λ$-Reachability, a scalable approach to Hamilton--Jacobi safety analysis for high-dimensional robotic systems. Unlike prior discounted formulations that rely on fixed one-step Bellman updates, $λ$-Reachability employs a stochastic multi-step estimator of the safety value, using a geometrically distributed rollout horizon together with a randomly absorbed terminal. Conceptually analogous to TD($λ$), $λ$-Reachability interpolates between local self-consistency updates and long-horizon max-over-trajectory safety targets via an interpretable horizon-control parameter. Unlike TD($λ$), where the terminal value is always incorporated in learning targets, the terminal safety value in $λ$-Reachability is only used at a probability controlled by parameter $δ$. We formally show that for $δ<1$, the update induces a contraction mapping that allows temporal-difference learning; as $λ\to 1$, the estimator recovers the undiscounted reachability objective. We apply $λ$-Reachability to high-dimensional safety learning problems with both simulated and real humanoid robots under balance and collision avoidance constraints. Experimental results demonstrate that $λ$-Reachability significantly improves both safe-set boundary classification and safety margin estimation compared to single-step temporal-difference baselines.

Extended chain-of-thought reasoning can degrade performance on deterministic state-tracking tasks, not due to preference biases, but limits rooted in the information-theoretic capacity of decoder-only attention. We establish: (1) an Attention Bottleneck Theorem with a complementary achievability construction, bounding state-tracking capacity as $O(H \cdot \log(L/H) \cdot \sqrt{d_h})$; (2) a context-dependent error model yielding super-exponential accuracy decay; (3) the State-Space Jaccard metric distinguishing capability from preference failures; (4) a Deterministic Horizon $d^* \in [19, 31]$ beyond which tool delegation becomes necessary. Across 12 models and 8 task domains (including SWE-Bench, WebArena, and SQL-Multi), tool-integrated reasoning consistently outperforms neural chain-of-thought; on the primary model suite it reaches 86-94% accuracy versus 24-42% for neural chain-of-thought. Fine-tuning on optimal-length traces yields $<$5% improvement, confirming an architectural ceiling, and high cross-model correlation ($r = 0.81$-$0.91$) indicates these failures are architectural rather than training-specific. Our results provide principled guidance for when pure neural reasoning should yield to hybrid approaches in agentic systems.

Auto-bidding systems aim to maximize advertiser value over long horizons under budget constraints and ratio targets such as cost-per-acquisition, yet future traffic and auction dynamics are non-stationary and uncertain. Existing approaches face distinct limitations: control-based pacing reacts to deviations but cannot anticipate future conditions, while RL and generative methods fold constraints into reward signals, obscuring violations and degrading under distribution shift. We shift the learning target from actions to responses with the Generative Response Model (GRM), a history-conditioned sequence model that jointly predicts future traffic volume and horizon-aggregate cost/value curves as functions of a single bid multiplier. We show that under mild monotonicity conditions, the optimality gap relative to full per-tick control is bounded by the dispersion of per-tick marginal value-per-cost. Given predicted responses, a lightweight analytic controller enforces each active constraint via a 1D root-finding step. We prove this controller is exact for the single-multiplier problem and bound constraint violations under receding-horizon replanning in terms of prediction error. Experiments on AuctionNet show that GRM improves constraint stability and overall score compared to existing baselines.

Long-horizon decision problems with cumulative damage couple locally attractive actions to globally adverse outcomes. We identify two orthogonal failure modes for policy-gradient methods on this class and propose a decomposition that separates them: \emph{completion} (reaching the terminal horizon rather than exiting via an implicit terminal constraint) and \emph{optimality} (matching the dynamic-programming reference given completion). Under PPO with a linear soft penalty, granting horizon access alone reduces the completion rate: the penalty's equilibrium drives the dominant-activity share to zero, while action-space restriction combined with horizon access achieves completion but leaves an optimality gap ($ΔM_{\text{final}} = 0.271$) that we trace to first-phase greedy commitment at the damage origin. We derive four testable predictions and evaluate them in two separately calibrated environments that share the same abstract structure but differ in domain, horizon, activity set, and calibration data: a 49-step bricklayer career and a 20-season NBA power-forward career. All four predictions replicate qualitatively. The horizon-invariance prediction is met at three of four tested horizons, with the exception at $H = 15$ consistent with the $H^*$ boundary ($H^* \in [6, 14]$ under the NBA parameters).

Large language models now write software, draft legal documents, and produce clinical notes, yet fundamental limits, from Turing and Arrow to the No Free Lunch theorems, shape what computation can do. This thesis turns such impossibility results from curiosities into design rules. Its flagship result proves an accuracy ceiling set by architecture alone: past a critical reasoning depth, no amount of training moves it, at any adapter rank, sample size, or loss function. Computable before deployment from layer count and embedding width, this Deterministic Horizon is measured between nineteen and thirty-one across twelve transformer architectures, and fine-tuning on optimal-length traces recovers under four percentage points. The mechanism is a capacity invariant of the residual stream, and an information-theoretic conversion yields super-exponential accuracy decay past the horizon. An unconditional circuit-complexity lower bound for modular exponentiation against constant-depth prime-modulus circuits complements this result. The same argument recasts across subfields: preference learning under any misspecified model jumps discontinuously in sample complexity; multi-stage retrieval pipelines require at least as many independent metrics as stages; standard truthful auctions fail for agents with prompt-dependent valuations; and zero-knowledge verification of neural inference pays a measured overhead of one hundred ten to one hundred ninety times per non-linear activation. Together these form a catalogue of sixteen specifications, each pairing a computable boundary, a quantified violation cost, and a constructive design rule: two compositions are proved, one pairing is an honest obstruction, and four remain open. The impossibility-specification methodology is offered for the generative research programme that trustworthy AI may need. Every fundamental limit of AI is also a design rule.

Safety-critical autonomy in unstructured environments poses significant challenges for online safety certification under evolving constraints. We propose Policy Library Control Barrier Function~(PL-CBF), a runtime safety filter that evaluates a library of fallback policies via parallel finite-horizon rollouts, selects the least invasive safe mode, and enforces safety by solving a quadratic program that minimally modifies a nominal policy. We provide a theoretical analysis based on a finite-horizon language metric over closed-loop behaviors, characterizing policy-library coverage requirements for certifying finite-horizon safety. Simulations on a planar double-integrator (4 states), highway driving with abrupt friction changes using a realistic nonlinear vehicle model (8 states), and 3D quadrotor navigation in crowded dynamic environments (12 states) demonstrate improved safety coverage over single-policy safety filters while retaining millisecond-level runtime.

We study best-policy identification for finite-horizon risk-sensitive reinforcement learning under the entropic risk measure. Recent work established a constant gap in the exponential horizon dependence between lower and upper bounds on the number of samples required to identify an approximately optimal policy. Precisely, known lower bounds scale in $Ω(e^{|β| H})$ where $H$ is the horizon of the MDP, while the state-of-the-art upper bound achieves at best $O(e^{2|β| H})$ (arXiv:2506.00286v2) using a generative model. We show that this extra exponential factor can be traced to overly loose concentration control for exponential utilities. To close this open gap, we revisit the analysis of this problem through a forward-model based algorithm building on KL-based exploration bonuses that we adapt to the entropic criterion. The improvement we get is due to two main novel technical innovations. We leverage the smoothness properties of the exponential utility to derive sharper concentration bounds, and we propose a new stopping rule that exploits further this tightness to obtain a sample complexity that matches the lower bound.

We study policy optimization for infinite-horizon, discounted constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs). While existing theoretical guarantees typically hold for the mixture policy, deploying such a policy is computationally and memory intensive. This leads to a practical mismatch where a single (last-iterate) policy must be deployed. Recent theoretical works have thus focused on proving last-iterate convergence, but are largely limited to the tabular setting or to algorithmic variants that are rarely used in practice. To address this, we use the classic inexact augmented Lagrangian ($\texttt{AL}$) method from constrained optimization, and propose a general framework with provable last-iterate convergence for CMDPs. We first focus on the tabular setting and propose to solve the $\texttt{AL}$ sub-problem with projected Q-ascent ($\texttt{PQA}$). Combining the theoretical guarantees of $\texttt{PQA}$ and the standard $\texttt{AL}$ analysis enables us to establish global last-iterate convergence. We generalize these results to handle log-linear policies, and demonstrate that an efficient, projected variant of $\texttt{PQA}$ can achieve last-iterate convergence with comparable guarantees as prior work. Finally, we demonstrate that our framework scales to complex non-linear policies, and evaluate it on continuous control tasks.

Policy evaluation is a fundamental component of the development and deployment pipeline for robotic policies. In modern manipulation systems, this problem is particularly challenging: rewards are often sparse, task progression of evaluation rollouts are often non-monotonic as the policies exhibit recovery behaviors, and evaluation rollouts are necessarily of finite length. This finite length introduces truncation bias, breaking the infinite-horizon assumptions underlying standard methods relying on Bellman equations/principle of optimality. In this work, we propose a framework for offline policy evaluation from sparse rewards based on a liveness-based Bellman operator. Our formulation interprets policy evaluation as a task-completion problem and yields a conservative fixed-point value function that is robust to finite-horizon truncation. We analyze the theoretical properties of the proposed operator, including contraction guarantees, and show how it encodes task progression while mitigating truncation bias. We evaluate our method on two simulated manipulation tasks using both a Vision-Language-Action model and a diffusion policy, and a cloth folding task using human demonstrations. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach more accurately reflects task progress and substantially reduces truncation bias, outperforming classical baselines such as TD(0) and Monte Carlo policy evaluation.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are systems in which one agent interacts with a stochastic environment, and receives only partial information about the current state. In a multi-environment POMDP (MEPOMDP), the initial state is unknown, and assumed to be adversarially chosen. In this work we focus on computing the optimal value and policy in MEPOMDPs with finite-horizon objectives. That problem is known to be PSPACE-complete in POMDPs. Our main results are as follows: (1) we establish that it is also PSPACE-complete in the more general setting of MEPOMDPs; (2) we present a practical algorithm and evaluate it on classical benchmarks, significantly outperforming the only previously known algorithm.

We study finite-horizon budget allocation as a closed-loop economic control problem and evaluate receding-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) relative to reactive budgeting policies. Budgets are allocated periodically under execution noise and operational constraints, while return efficiency may evolve over time. Using a controlled simulation framework motivated by digital marketing, we compare reactive pacing to MPC across environments with increasing degrees of non-stationarity. Our results show that non-stationarity alone does not justify predictive control. When return dynamics are stationary or evolve through unpredictable stochastic drift, MPC offers no systematic advantage over reactive baselines. By contrast, when return efficiency exhibits predictable structure over the planning horizon, that is captured through an underlying model, MPC consistently outperforms reactive budgeting by exploiting intertemporal trade-offs.

Autonomous systems are increasingly deployed in real-world environments, where they must achieve high performance while maintaining safety under state and input constraints. Although Model Predictive Control (MPC) provides a principled framework for constrained optimal control, guaranteeing safety beyond its finite planning horizon remains a fundamental challenge. In this work, we augment MPC with a safety value function-based terminal constraint that enforces membership in a control-invariant safe set at the end of each planning horizon. This formulation enables real-time synthesis of trajectories that are both high-performing and provably safe. We show that, under an exact safety value function and a feasible initialization, the proposed MPC scheme is recursively feasible, thereby ensuring persistent safety. In contrast to traditional terminal set constructions that rely on local linearizations or conservative approximations, our approach incorporates a reachability-based safety value function for terminal constraints, yielding less conservative and more expressive safety guarantees. We validate the proposed framework through simulation and hardware experiments on a Flexiv Rizon 10s manipulator. Results demonstrate improved constraint satisfaction and robustness compared to standard state-constrained MPC and reactive safety filtering, while maintaining competitive task performance. The full implementation and experiments are available on the project website.

This work highlights the duality between state estimation and model predictive control. A model predictive controller, observed control, is presented that uses this duality to efficiently compute control actions with linear prediction horizon length scalability. The proposed algorithms provide exceptional computational efficiency, adaptive time horizon lengths, and early optimization termination criteria. The use of Kalman smoothers as the backend optimization framework provides for a familiar implementation supported by strong theoretical guarantees. Additionally, a formulation is presented that separates linear model predictive control into purely reactive and anticipatory components, enabling any-time any-horizon observed control while ensuring controller stability for short time horizons. Finally, the method is extended to nonlinear systems and non-quadratic cost functions to obtain locally-optimal control of complex systems while maintaining linear prediction horizon scalability and adaptive-horizon capabilities.