Human Behavior Prediction

Predicting how a person's first-person view will evolve (what action will follow, what plan completes a task, whether an in-progress shot will score) is fundamentally under-specified: the same context admits many plausible futures, and a model trained to minimize prediction error is forced to hedge or average across them, getting it wrong either way. Two findings shape our approach. First, the future camera trajectory, the path the head carves through space, lets the model commit to one of those futures: it carries the operator's intent in a form fine enough to determine how an action will unfold, substantially outperforming language as a conditioning signal. Second, this same intent makes the trajectory itself partially predictable from the context at hand, enough that trajectory need not be observed at test time to recover most of the gain. We instantiate these findings as TrajPilot, a model that predicts candidate future trajectories from egocentric context and uses them to pilot action prediction in an action-aligned embedding space where language shapes the structure but is never used as a conditioning input. TrajPilot beats VLM and structured-planner baselines on procedural planning across Ego-Exo4D atomic, Ego-Exo4D Keystep, Ego4D GoalStep, and EgoPER, with the trajectory advantage widening with horizon (exactly where prior planners collapse) and holding under RGB-only camera-pose estimation. With the goal masked at inference, the same model performs goal-free anticipation, beating VLM baselines on Ego-Exo4D atomic and extending to EPIC-Kitchens-100 and basketball shot-outcome prediction.

Understanding why some sequential planning problems are harder than others requires models that go beyond average performance. They should capture the specific pattern of which problems are hard, and ideally fail in the same way people do when planning capacity is reduced. We apply AICON, a reactive gradient-descent framework developed for robotic manipulation, to the Tower of London test, a cognitive test used to assess planning in Parkinson's disease, mild cognitive impairment, and stroke. Without any lookahead planning or knowledge of human cognition, AICON reproduces the fine-grained human difficulty ordering across 24 problems better than structural task parameters and generalizes to held-out problems in a leave-two-out evaluation. Crucially, AICON outperforms a planning baseline for groups with reduced planning capacity while the planning baseline better captures healthy controls. This dissociation was predicted by the original AICON paper, which noted that the model's failure modes resemble those of Parkinson's patients who struggle with goal hierarchies but not move counts. This suggests that as planning capacity is reduced, human behavior shifts toward the reactive mode AICON models. The finding extends a broader pattern: AICON, originally built for robotics, now captures aspects of biological behavior across perception, eye movements, and sequential planning, suggesting its core abstraction reflects something real about how biological systems are organized.

Forecasting human life outcomes is important to gain insights into how individuals attain long and healthy lives. Conventional statistical approaches yield limited accuracy, potentially due to discarding the sequential structure of the life course. Modern methods such as transformer architectures require large scale training data that most longitudinal panel studies lack. Here we introduce LifeSentence, a model for life-course reasoning that bridges large language models with longitudinal panel data. By representing each life event as a structured natural-language record and instruction-tuning a pretrained 24-billion-parameter language model across an 18-task evaluation taxonomy spanning prediction, robustness and reasoning, LifeSentence supplements panel data with distributional knowledge already encoded during pretraining. Trained on approximately 65,000 individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel - roughly 45 times fewer than prior transformer-based approaches - LifeSentence outperforms classical and deep learning baselines across all task families, achieving a threefold improvement in joint event-and-timing prediction from best baselines and 91.2% Kendall's tau when reconstructing chronological order from timestamp-stripped event sets. Without explicit supervision, the model recovers documented patterns of social stratification, including the education premium, the gender wage gap and the motherhood penalty, from discrete event sequences alone. A natural-language interface further enables qualitatively new research queries, such as connecting an early-life history to a specified late-life endpoint, establishing LifeSentence as both a predictive tool and a probe for counterfactual exploration of human biographies.

Sustained effort is essential for realizing the benefits of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), yet many learners disengage or underuse available practice time. We introduce engagement forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on ITS logs, targeting two outcomes central to effort and learning progress: minutes practiced per week and new skills mastered per week. Using interaction log data from 425 middle-school students over a school year, we benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks. We show that these feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to heuristic baselines, including fixed-percentile rules adapted from prior work in other behavioral domains. We find that percentile heuristics systematically overpredict, whereas feature-based models better track student practice trajectories across weeks. To support explainability, we analyze feature importance and ablations, revealing target-specific patterns: effort forecasting is driven mainly by recent activity features, while progress forecasting depends more on learner-state and content difficulty signals. Finally, in a semi-structured user interview case study with eight college tutors, we examine how tutors reasoned about system-generated predictive features when setting goals with students. We find that tutors reasoned differently about effort versus progress goals in ways that mirror our pattern analysis. Together, these results establish a reproducible benchmark for forecasting weekly effort and learning progress in ITS. By making patterns of sustained effort and progress visible at a weekly timescale, engagement forecasting offers a foundation for supporting tutor-learner goal setting and timely instructional decisions.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as surrogates for human participants, but it remains unclear which models best capture human behavior and why. To address this, we introduce Psych-201, a novel dataset that enables us to measure behavioral alignment at scale. We find that post-training -- the stage that turns base models into useful assistants -- consistently reduces alignment with human behavior across model families, sizes, and objectives. Moreover, this misalignment widens in newer model generations even as base models continue to improve. Finally, we find that persona-induction -- a popular technique for eliciting human-like behavior by conditioning models on participant-specific information -- does not improve predictions at the level of individuals. Taken together, our results suggest that the very processes that are currently employed to turn LLMs into useful assistants also make them less accurate models of human behavior.

Human daily behavior unfolds as complex sequences shaped by intentions, preferences, and context. Effectively modeling these behaviors is crucial for intelligent systems such as personal assistants and recommendation engines. While recent advances in deep learning and behavior pre-training have improved behavior prediction, key challenges remain--particularly in handling long-tail behaviors, enhancing interpretability, and supporting multiple tasks within a unified framework. Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising direction due to their semantic richness, strong interpretability, and generative capabilities. However, the structural and modal differences between behavioral data and natural language limit the direct applicability of LLMs. To address this gap, we propose Behavior Understanding Alignment (BUA), a novel framework that integrates LLMs into human behavior modeling through a structured curriculum learning process. BUA employs sequence embeddings from pretrained behavior models as alignment anchors and guides the LLM through a three-stage curriculum, while a multi-round dialogue setting introduces prediction and generation capabilities. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that BUA significantly outperforms existing methods in both tasks, highlighting its effectiveness and flexibility in applying LLMs to complex human behavior modeling.

Large language models (LLM) agents may offer tools to predict human responses to surveys. A common technique for defining these agents uses only demographics, for example country, age, gender, employment status, income, education and marital status. We compare the predictive accuracy of demographic agents to that of survey agents defined with a larger set of in-domain survey responses. We test both approaches in predicting responses to the multidisciplinary, cross-national Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), focusing on five variables from three policy-relevant constructs around personal finance. In these three constructs, we observe that, compared to survey agents trained on broader data, demographics-only agents (1) exhibited a central tendency bias, skewing answers toward population means, and (2) were unrealistically accurate, failing to reproduce the incorrect answers and "don't know" responses typical of human respondents. These performance differences are further substantiated through the replication of a hierarchical regression analysis from prior retirement planning research. Agents based solely on demographic information reproduce the outcome that financial risk tolerance, future time perspective, and knowledge of retirement planning each are predictive of retirement savings. However, only the survey-anchored agents succeed in reproducing the interaction among these three factors. These findings suggest caution in using only demographics to define LLM agents for predicting survey responses.

Human behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks.

Human mobility prediction is a critical task but remains challenging due to its complexity and variability across populations and regions. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have made progress in zero-shot prediction, but existing methods suffer from limited interpretability (due to black-box reasoning), lack of iterative learning from new data, and poor transferability. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{ARMove}, a fully transferable framework for predicting human mobility through agentic reasoning. To address these limitations, ARMove employs standardized feature management with iterative optimization and user-specific customization: four major feature pools for foundational knowledge, user profiles for segmentation, and an automated generation mechanism integrating LLM knowledge. Robust generalization is achieved via agentic decision-making that adjusts feature weights to maximize accuracy while providing interpretable decision paths. Finally, large-small model synergy distills strategies from large LLMs (e.g., 72B) to smaller ones (e.g., 7B), reducing costs and enhancing performance ceilings. Extensive experiments on four global datasets show ARMove outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on 6 out of 12 metrics (gains of 0.78% to 10.47%), with transferability tests confirming robustness across regions, users, and scales. The other 4 items also achieved suboptimal results. Transferability tests confirm its 19 robustness across regions, user groups, and model scales, while interpretability 20 analysis highlights its transparency in decision-making. Our codes are available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ARMove-F847.

Simulating human reasoning in open-ended tasks has long been a central aspiration in AI and cognitive science. While large language models now approximate human responses at scale, they remain tuned to population-level consensus, often erasing the individuality of reasoning styles and belief trajectories. To advance the vision of more human-like reasoning in machines, we introduce HugAgent (HUman-Grounded AGENT Benchmark), which rethinks human reasoning simulation along three dimensions: (i) from averaged to individualized reasoning, (ii) from behavioral mimicry to cognitive alignment, and (iii) from vignette-based to open-ended data. The benchmark evaluates whether a model can predict a specific person's behavioral responses and the underlying reasoning dynamics in out-of-distribution scenarios, given partial evidence of their prior views. HugAgent combines structured questionnaires with semi-structured think-aloud interviews to collect ecologically valid belief states, belief updates, and reasoning traces from human participants. Our experiments reveal a clear asymmetry: models recover a person's belief state from their own context reasonably well, but struggle to predict belief updates under intervention. Cross-person and cross-domain controls trace this gap to associative matching within a topic rather than identity-consistent reasoning, suggesting that progress requires better-calibrated change detection, not simply more context. We scope the benchmark to self-reported belief reasoning in three policy domains: healthcare, surveillance, and zoning. The benchmark, along with its complete data collection pipeline and companion chatbot, is open-sourced as HugAgent (https://github.com/jajamoa/HugAgent) and TraceYourThinking (https://github.com/jajamoa/trace-your-thinking).

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human behavior in business, economics, and the social sciences, offering a low-cost complement to laboratory experiments, field studies, and surveys. This paper evaluates how well LLMs replicate human behavior in operations management. Using nine published behavioral-operations experiments, we assess LLM performance along two dimensions: whether LLM-generated data reproduce the original hypothesis-test outcomes, and whether their full response distributions align with human data, measured by Wasserstein distance. We find that LLMs often replicate hypothesis-level effects, suggesting that they can capture salient decision biases and behavioral regularities. However, their response distributions frequently diverge from human data, even for strong proprietary models, with dispersion mismatch playing an important role. We also examine two lightweight mitigation strategies: chain-of-thought prompting and hyperparameter tuning. Both can reduce distributional misalignment, and appropriate tuning can sometimes allow smaller or open-source models to match or outperform larger proprietary systems.

Machine learning can predict human behavior well when substantial structured data are available for well-defined outcomes. Such models are typically outcome-specific, however, requiring training data for each target outcome, limiting their applicability to new domains. We test whether large language models (LLMs) can relax these requirements by using self-report data to build attitudinal and behavioral simulations, or "generative agents," that can predict responses across outcomes without outcome-specific training data. Using data from a diverse national sample of 1,052 Americans, we built agents from (i) two-hour, semi-structured interviews elicited using the American Voices Project interview schedule, (ii) structured surveys including General Social Survey items and the Big Five personality inventory, or (iii) both sources combined. On held-out General Social Survey items, interview-only, survey-only, and combined agents achieved accuracies equal to 83%, 82%, and 86% of participants' own two-week test-retest consistency benchmark, respectively, compared with 74% for demographics-only agents. Combining interviews and surveys produced the highest accuracy, though gains over either source alone were modest, suggesting that predictive benefits from data begin to asymptote once the model has observed sufficient evidence within a domain. We find that these agents also predict personality traits, economic-game behavior, and experimental responses, while reducing accuracy disparities across racial and ideological groups relative to demographics-only agents. Together, these results show that LLM agents grounded in qualitative or quantitative self-reports can support general-purpose simulation of individuals across outcomes, without requiring task-specific training data.