Overview

Human behavior simulation builds computational accounts of how people make decisions, interact, and change over time, from individual choices to crowd and population dynamics. Methods range from cognitive and game-theoretic models, agent-based modeling, and reinforcement learning to language-model agents grounded in surveys, interviews, behavioral traces, psychological traits, or memory. Applications include opinion and market dynamics, mobility and traffic, evacuation, education, healthcare, and testing interactive AI systems. A central challenge is validating more than plausible outputs or aggregate averages: simulations must reproduce human response distributions, individual differences, interaction-driven change, and remain robust across prompts, populations, and settings.

Latest papers

240 papers22 papers in the last four weeks, down 12% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Feb 20, 2026

Robo-Saber: Generating and Simulating Virtual Reality Players

We present the first motion generation system for playtesting virtual reality (VR) games. Our player model generates VR headset and handheld controller movements from in-game object arrangements, guided by style exemplars and aligned to maximize simulated gameplay score. We train on the large BOXRR-23 dataset and apply our framework on the popular VR game Beat Saber. The resulting model Robo-Saber produces skilled gameplay and captures diverse player behaviors, mirroring the skill levels and movement patterns specified by input style exemplars. Robo-Saber demonstrates promise in synthesizing rich gameplay data for predictive applications and enabling a physics-based whole-body VR playtesting agent.
Feb 19, 2026

Decoding the Human Factor: High Fidelity Behavioral Prediction for Strategic Foresight

Predicting human decision-making in high-stakes environments remains a central challenge for artificial intelligence. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong general reasoning, they often struggle to generate consistent, individual-specific behavior, particularly when accurate prediction depends on complex interactions between psychological traits and situational constraints. Prompting-based approaches can be brittle in this setting, exhibiting identity drift and limited ability to leverage increasingly detailed persona descriptions. To address these limitations, we introduce the Large Behavioral Model (LBM), a behavioral foundation model fine-tuned to predict individual strategic choices with high fidelity. LBM shifts from transient persona prompting to behavioral embedding by conditioning on a structured, high-dimensional trait profile derived from a comprehensive psychometric battery. Trained on a proprietary dataset linking stable dispositions, motivational states, and situational constraints to observed choices, LBM learns to map rich psychological profiles to discrete actions across diverse strategic dilemmas. In a held-out scenario evaluation, LBM fine-tuning improves behavioral prediction relative to the unadapted Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct backbone and performs comparably to frontier baselines when conditioned on Big Five traits. Moreover, we find that while prompting-based baselines exhibit a complexity ceiling, LBM continues to benefit from increasingly dense trait profiles, with performance improving as additional trait dimensions are provided. Together, these results establish LBM as a scalable approach for high-fidelity behavioral simulation, enabling applications in strategic foresight, negotiation analysis, cognitive security, and decision support.
Feb 19, 2026

AI Agents Alone Are Not (Yet) Sufficient for Social Simulation

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have spurred growing interest in using LLM-integrated agents for social simulation, often under the implicit assumption that realistic population dynamics will emerge once role-specified agents are placed in a networked multi-agent setting. This position paper argues that LLM-based agents alone are not (yet) sufficient for social simulation. We attribute this over-optimism to a systematic mismatch between what current agent pipelines are typically optimized and validated to produce and what simulation-as-science requires. Concretely, role-playing plausibility does not imply faithful human behavioral validity; collective outcomes are frequently mediated by agent-environment co-dynamics rather than agent-agent messaging alone; and results can be dominated by interaction protocols, scheduling, and initial information priors. To make these underlying mechanisms explicit and auditable, we propose a unified formulation of AI agent-based social simulation as an environment-involved Markov game with explicit exposure and scheduling mechanisms, from which we derive concrete actions for design, evaluation, and interpretation.
Feb 17, 2026

This human study did not involve human subjects: Validating LLM simulations as behavioral evidence

A growing literature uses large language models (LLMs) as synthetic participants to generate cost-effective and nearly instantaneous responses in social science experiments. However, there is limited guidance on when such simulations support valid inference about human behavior. We contrast two strategies for obtaining valid estimates of causal effects and clarify the assumptions under which each is suitable for exploratory versus confirmatory research. Heuristic approaches seek to establish that simulated and observed human behavior are interchangeable through prompt engineering, model fine-tuning, and other repair strategies designed to reduce LLM-induced inaccuracies. While useful for many exploratory tasks, heuristic approaches lack the formal statistical guarantees typically required for confirmatory research. In contrast, statistical calibration combines auxiliary human data with statistical adjustments to account for discrepancies between observed and simulated responses. Under explicit assumptions, statistical calibration preserves validity and provides more precise estimates of causal effects at lower cost than experiments that rely solely on human participants. Yet the potential of both approaches depends on how well LLMs approximate the relevant populations. We consider what opportunities are overlooked when researchers focus myopically on substituting LLMs for human participants in a study.
Feb 17, 2026

Mobility-Aware Cache Framework for Scalable LLM-Based Human Mobility Simulation

Simulating large-scale human mobility is fundamental to understanding population movement patterns and supporting real-world geospatial applications such as urban planning, epidemic response, and transportation analysis. Recent works treat large language models (LLMs) as human agents to simulate realistic mobility behaviors using structured reasoning, but their high computational cost limits scalability. To address this, we design a mobility-aware cache framework named MobCache that leverages reconstructible caches to enable efficient large-scale human mobility simulations. It consists of: (1) a reasoning component that encodes each reasoning step as a latent-space embedding and uses a latent-space evaluator to enable the reuse and recombination of reasoning steps; and (2) a decoding component that employs a lightweight decoder trained with mobility law-constrained distillation to translate latent-space reasoning chains into natural language, thereby improving simulation efficiency while maintaining fidelity. Experiments show that MobCache significantly improves efficiency across multiple dimensions while maintaining performance comparable to state-of-the-art LLM-based methods.
Feb 17, 2026

Bridging Individual and Collective Realism in LLM-Based Human Mobility Simulation via Mobility Scaling-Law Guidance

Geospatial applications such as urban planning, epidemic forecasting, and transportation demand modeling depend on individual mobility data, but such data are costly to collect, uneven in coverage, and privacy-sensitive. Human mobility simulation offers a scalable alternative. A recent line of work treats large language models (LLMs) as human agents, modeling individual cognitive processes to generate realistic trajectories. Yet because each agent is simulated in isolation, these methods provide no population-level coordination mechanism, and the collective regularities of real mobility - how trip distances, visited locations, and flows distribute across a population - fail to emerge. We close this gap with COMPASS, which turns empirical mobility scaling laws into a feedback signal that guides prompt construction. COMPASS starts from coarse, population-level adjustments driven by these scaling laws and progressively refines them into individual prompts, jointly satisfying multiple aggregate objectives while keeping individual trajectories realistic. Across two public datasets, COMPASS outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based simulators.
Feb 17, 2026

Stability Regimes for Framing-Sensitive Fine-Tuning in Language Models

AI systems increasingly shape how individuals access and evaluate information, intensifying concerns about misinformation. Computational simulation offers a controlled complement to direct empirical study, with fine-tuned LLMs enabling powerful agent-based simulations. However, fine-tuning often induces broad behavioral shifts including bias drift, degenerate heuristics, and changes in baseline task behavior, which undermine experimental validity. The central challenge is inducing localized decision shifts while preserving the model's aggregate behavior outside the targeted intervention. We study this through a stability analysis of supervised fine-tuning, attenuating loss on selected training slices to shift false-claim acceptance. We introduce FrameRef, a large-scale dataset of semantically equivalent claims with controlled surface framings across five dimensions (Authoritative, Consensus, Emotional, Sensationalist, Prestige), with human validation confirming systematic framing effects on claim acceptance. We present a methodology for identifying model-specific stability regimes in which targeted error shifts can be induced while preserving aggregate accuracy and calibration, and demonstrate its application to selected language models. A sequential exposure task over FrameRef shows that small framing-conditioned shifts compound into substantially different cumulative outcomes under feedback, but largely disappear when feedback is removed, confirming that interventions modify specific decision tendencies rather than global performance. We release code, LoRA adapters, and data at https://github.com/infosenselab/framing-sensitive-ft.
Feb 16, 2026

MyoInteract: A Framework for Fast Prototyping of Biomechanical HCI Tasks using Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning (RL)-based biomechanical simulations have the potential to revolutionise HCI research and interaction design, but currently lack usability and interpretability. Using the Human Action Cycle as a design lens, we identify key limitations of biomechanical RL frameworks and develop MyoInteract, a novel framework for fast prototyping of biomechanical HCI tasks. MyoInteract allows designers to setup tasks, user models, and training parameters from an easy-to-use GUI within minutes. It trains and evaluates muscle-actuated simulated users within minutes, reducing training times by up to 98%. A workshop study with 12 interaction designers revealed that MyoInteract allowed novices in biomechanical RL to successfully setup, train, and assess goal-directed user movements within a single session. By transforming biomechanical RL from a days-long expert task into an accessible hour-long workflow, this work significantly lowers barriers to entry and accelerates iteration cycles in HCI biomechanics research.
Feb 16, 2026

Cognitive networks reconstruct mindsets about STEM subjects and educational contexts in almost 1000 high-schoolers, University students and LLM-based digital twins

Attitudes toward STEM develop from the interaction of conceptual knowledge, educational experiences, and affect. Here we use cognitive network science to reconstruct group mindsets as behavioural forma mentis networks (BFMNs). In this case, nodes are cue words and free associations, edges are empirical associative links, and each concept is annotated with perceived valence. We analyse BFMNs from N = 994 observations spanning high school students, university students, and early-career STEM experts, alongside LLM (GPT-oss) "digital twins" prompted to emulate comparable profiles. Focusing also on semantic neighbourhoods ("frames") around key target concepts (e.g., STEM subjects or educational actors/places), we quantify frames in terms of valence auras, emotional profiles, network overlap (Jaccard similarity), and concreteness relative to null baselines. Across student groups, science and research are consistently framed positively, while their core quantitative subjects (mathematics and statistics) exhibit more negative and anxiety related auras, amplified in higher math-anxiety subgroups, evidencing a STEM-science cognitive and emotional dissonance. High-anxiety frames are also less concrete than chance, suggesting more abstract and decontextualised representations of threatening quantitative domains. Human networks show greater overlapping between mathematics and anxiety than GPT-oss. The results highlight how BFMNs capture cognitive-affective signatures of mindsets towards the target domains and indicate that LLM-based digital twins approximate cultural attitudes but miss key context-sensitive, experience-based components relevant to replicate human educational anxiety.
Feb 10, 2026

Stochastic Parrots or Singing in Harmony? Testing Five Leading LLMs for their Ability to Replicate a Human Survey with Synthetic Data

How well can AI-derived synthetic research data replicate the responses of human participants? An emerging literature has begun to engage with this question, which carries deep implications for organizational research practice. This article presents a comparison between a human-respondent survey of 420 Silicon Valley coders and developers and synthetic survey data designed to simulate real survey takers generated by five leading Generative AI Large Language Models: ChatGPT Thinking 5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5 Pro plus Claude CoWork 1.123, Gemini Advanced 2.5 Pro, Incredible 1.0, and DeepSeek 3.2. Our findings reveal that while AI agents produced technically plausible results that lean more towards replicability and harmonization than assumed, none were able to capture the counterintuitive insights that made the human survey valuable. Moreover, deviations grouped together for all models, leaving the real data as the outlier. Our key finding is that while leading LLMs are increasingly being used to scale, replicate and replace human survey responses in research, these advances only show an increased capacity to parrot conventional wisdom in harmony with each other rather than revealing novel findings. If synthetic respondents are used in future research, we need more replicable validation protocols and reporting standards for when and where synthetic survey data can be used responsibly, a gap that this paper fills. Our results suggest that synthetic survey responses cannot meaningfully model real human social beliefs within organizations, particularly in contexts lacking previously documented evidence. We conclude that synthetic survey-based research should be cast not as a substitute for rigorous survey methods, but as an increasingly reliable pre- or post-fieldwork instrument for identifying societal assumptions, conventional wisdoms, and other expectations about research populations.
Dec 11, 2025

UBCL: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Controllable and Diverse Player Behaviors

This paper introduces a reinforcement learning framework that enables controllable and diverse player behaviors without relying on human gameplay data. Existing approaches often require large-scale player trajectories, train separate models for different player types, or provide no direct mapping between interpretable behavioral parameters and the learned policy, limiting their scalability and controllability. We define player behavior in an N-dimensional continuous space and uniformly sample target behavior vectors from a region that encompasses the subset representing real human styles. During training, each agent receives both its current and target behavior vectors as input, and the reward is based on the normalized reduction in distance between them. This allows the policy to learn how actions influence behavioral statistics, enabling smooth control over attributes such as aggressiveness, mobility, and cooperativeness. A single PPO-based multi-agent policy can reproduce new or unseen play styles without retraining. Experiments conducted in a custom multi-player Unity game show that the proposed framework produces significantly greater behavioral diversity than a win-only baseline and reliably matches specified behavior vectors across diverse targets. The method offers a scalable solution for automated playtesting, game balancing, human-like behavior simulation, and replacing disconnected players in online games.
Nov 6, 2025

Large language models replicate and predict human cooperation across experiments in game theory

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as decision-making agents in high-stakes domains and as imitators of human behavior in the social and behavioral sciences. Yet how closely LLMs mirror human decision-making remains poorly understood. This gap is critical: misalignment could produce harmful outcomes in practice, while failure to replicate human behavior renders LLMs ineffective as social simulators. Here, we address this gap by replicating large-scale game-theoretic experiments and by introducing a systematic prompting and probing framework for machine-behavioral evaluation. We test three open models typically used to power agents (Llama, Mistral, and Qwen). Across 121 dyadic games spanning four classical game types, Llama reproduces human cooperation patterns with high fidelity, while Qwen aligns closely with Nash equilibrium predictions. Characterizing models through behavioral phenotyping, we find that humans and Llama share an envious decision profile, while Qwen and Mistral exhibit different profiles. An attention-based analysis of payoff salience reveals Llama processes payoff information in a structured, layer-dependent manner absent in Qwen and Mistral, suggesting a mechanistic basis for its closer alignment with human behavior. Population-level behavioral replication is achieved without persona-based prompting, simplifying the simulation process. Extending the experimental parameter space beyond the original human-tested games, we generate and preregister testable hypotheses for novel game configurations. Our findings demonstrate appropriately configured LLMs can replicate aggregate human behavioral patterns, exhibit human-like decision phenotypes, and enable systematic exploration of unexplored experimental spaces, offering a complementary approach to traditional behavioral research that generates new empirical predictions about human social decision-making.
Oct 29, 2025

Gravity-Awareness: Deep Learning Models and LLM Simulation of Human Awareness in Altered Gravity

Earth s gravity fundamentally shapes human behaviour. The brain encodes this force as an internal model of gravity, enabling the prediction and interpretation of gravitational effects during perception and action. Understanding how this model adapts to altered gravity is critical for predicting human performance in spaceflight. We present a computational framework for modelling neurophysiological adaptation across diverse gravitational environments. The framework has two components trained on open-access data from altered-gravity studies, particularly parabolic flights. The first component (CorticalG) employs a lightweight multilayer perceptron neural network to predict gravity-dependent changes in EEG frequency bands, estimating cortical state under different gravitational loads. The second component (PhysioG) uses independent Gaussian process models to capture broader physiological responses, including heart rate variability, electrodermal activity, and motor control. To complement the quantitative modelling, we simulated subjective experience across gravitational environments using the Large Language Model (LLM) Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Physiological outputs prompted the model to generate narratives describing alertness, bodily awareness, and cognitive state across zero gravity, partial gravity of the Moon and Mars, and hypergravity. This framework provides a novel approach for investigating human adaptation to spaceflight. It offers a predictive tool to assess performance and resilience, supporting the design of future space exploration missions.
Oct 16, 2025

HugAgent: A Human Simulation Benchmark for Individual-Level Reasoning

Simulating human reasoning in open-ended tasks has long been a central aspiration in AI and cognitive science. While large language models now approximate human responses at scale, they remain tuned to population-level consensus, often erasing the individuality of reasoning styles and belief trajectories. To advance the vision of more human-like reasoning in machines, we introduce HugAgent (HUman-Grounded AGENT Benchmark), which rethinks human reasoning simulation along three dimensions: (i) from averaged to individualized reasoning, (ii) from behavioral mimicry to cognitive alignment, and (iii) from vignette-based to open-ended data. The benchmark evaluates whether a model can predict a specific person's behavioral responses and the underlying reasoning dynamics in out-of-distribution scenarios, given partial evidence of their prior views. HugAgent combines structured questionnaires with semi-structured think-aloud interviews to collect ecologically valid belief states, belief updates, and reasoning traces from human participants. Our experiments reveal a clear asymmetry: models recover a person's belief state from their own context reasonably well, but struggle to predict belief updates under intervention. Cross-person and cross-domain controls trace this gap to associative matching within a topic rather than identity-consistent reasoning, suggesting that progress requires better-calibrated change detection, not simply more context. We scope the benchmark to self-reported belief reasoning in three policy domains: healthcare, surveillance, and zoning. The benchmark, along with its complete data collection pipeline and companion chatbot, is open-sourced as HugAgent (https://github.com/jajamoa/HugAgent) and TraceYourThinking (https://github.com/jajamoa/trace-your-thinking).
Oct 13, 2025

People use fast and flat simulation to reason about new games

Games have long been a microcosm for studying planning and reasoning in both natural and artificial intelligence (AI), often focusing on expert-level or even super-human play. But real life also pushes human intelligence along a different frontier, requiring people to flexibly navigate decision-making problems that they have never thought about before. Here, we use novice gameplay to study how people reason about new problem settings. Through a series of large-scale behavioral studies with over 1000 participants and 121 two-player strategic board games (almost all novel to our participants), we show that people are systematic and adaptively rational in how they play a game for the first time, or evaluate a game (e.g., how fair or how fun it is likely to be) before they have played it even once. We explain these capacities via a computational cognitive model that we call the 'Intuitive Gamer', a model based on mechanisms of fast and flat (depth-limited) goal-directed probabilistic simulation. Our work offers new insights into how people rapidly evaluate, act, and make suggestions when encountering novel problems, and could inform the design of more flexible and human-like AI systems that can determine not just how to solve new tasks, but whether a task is worth thinking about at all.
Sep 30, 2025

Predicting Effects, Missing Distributions: Evaluating LLMs as Human Behavior Simulators in Operations Management

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human behavior in business, economics, and the social sciences, offering a low-cost complement to laboratory experiments, field studies, and surveys. This paper evaluates how well LLMs replicate human behavior in operations management. Using nine published behavioral-operations experiments, we assess LLM performance along two dimensions: whether LLM-generated data reproduce the original hypothesis-test outcomes, and whether their full response distributions align with human data, measured by Wasserstein distance. We find that LLMs often replicate hypothesis-level effects, suggesting that they can capture salient decision biases and behavioral regularities. However, their response distributions frequently diverge from human data, even for strong proprietary models, with dispersion mismatch playing an important role. We also examine two lightweight mitigation strategies: chain-of-thought prompting and hyperparameter tuning. Both can reduce distributional misalignment, and appropriate tuning can sometimes allow smaller or open-source models to match or outperform larger proprietary systems.
Sep 26, 2025

Generalized Multi-agent Social Simulation Framework

Multi-agent social interaction has clearly benefited from Large Language Models. However, current simulation systems still face challenges such as difficulties in scaling to diverse scenarios and poor reusability due to a lack of modular design. To address these issues, we designed and developed a modular, object-oriented framework that organically integrates various base classes through a hierarchical structure, harvesting scalability and reusability. We inherited the framework to realize common derived classes. Additionally, a memory summarization mechanism is proposed to filter and distill relevant information from raw memory data, prioritizing contextually salient events and interactions. By selecting and combining some necessary derived classes, we customized a specific simulated environment. Utilizing this simulated environment, we successfully simulated human interactions on social media, replicating real-world online social behaviors. The source code for the project will be released and evolve.
Sep 22, 2025

The PIMMUR Principles: Ensuring Validity in Collective Behavior of LLM Societies

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human collective behavior, yet claims that such simulations are human-like remain largely untested. We conducted a systematic audit (pre-registered on OSF) of LLM-based social simulations across four databases (Scopus, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, and arXiv). Across 576 studies reported in 350 recent papers, we applied six methodological evaluations: agent Profile, Interaction, Memory, Minimal-Control, Unawareness, and Realism (PIMMUR). Coding every study against pre-specified rules, we revealed that PIM were met more often than MUR. Frontier LLMs correctly identified the underlying social experiment in 65.2% of cases, and 50.6% of prompts imposed constraints that pre-determined the outcome. These compliance rates are upper bounds, because incomplete methodological reporting (for example, unreleased prompts) limits the available evidence. Reproducing five representative experiments (e.g., opinion dynamics), we found that reported collective phenomena often vanish or reverse once PIMMUR principles are enforced, indicating that many "emergent" behaviors are methodological artifacts rather than genuine social dynamics. Current LLM simulations may therefore capture model-specific biases rather than universal features of human social behavior, raising concerns about their use as scientific proxies for human society.
Sep 3, 2025

Are LLM Agents Behaviorally Coherent? A Latent Profiling Approach for Social Simulation

LLM agents are increasingly proposed as substitutes for human participants in social research, usually on the strength of survey responses that match those of the humans they represent. We argue that such output-level alignment is not enough. Drawing on the behavioral sciences, we propose Latent Profiling, a framework for testing behavioral coherence: whether an agent's conversational behavior follows, as human behavioral models predict, from its own latent profile elicited by short surveys. As a case study, we test six hypotheses about preference, openness and agreement across nine open models. Agents reproduce surface-level trends but systematically fail in-depth tests: they are not behaviorally coherent, even when their individual responses look human. Latent Profiling thus offers a theory-grounded instrument for a behavioral science of LLMs.
Aug 24, 2025

Computational Multi-Agents Society Experiments: Social Modeling Framework Based on Generative Agents

Computational social science has developed descriptive, interpretative, and predictive modeling, but comprehensive modeling combining in-world human intervention with outcome forecasting remains underexplored. Generative agent-based platforms scale populations or reproduce complex scenarios, but researchers typically act through setup, external controls, or post-hoc analysis rather than in-world roles. We introduce Computational Multi-Agent Society Experiments (CMASE), a generative agent-based framework for in-world researcher participation and traceable interventions at runtime. Treating simulation as a simulated ethnographic field, CMASE supports (1) real-time human-computer interaction to study intervention processes; (2) controlled experiments with ethnography-inspired observation, interviewing, and interpretation; and (3) forward exploration of intervention trajectories and downstream responses. CMASE combines LLM-driven perception, memory, and emotion; a composable environment built from texture and area maps; and researcher roles spanning observation, interviewing, participation, and intervention, so that interventions enter as social events rather than exogenous parameters. We replicate two published field studies from different disciplines: urban greenery and social fragmentation, and cooperation in a public goods game, using two substantially different language models. CMASE reproduces reported statistical patterns and provides process-level records for mechanism-oriented interpretation. A controlled comparison shows that embedded social interventions leave observable, auditable processes that parametric manipulation does not. These findings highlight CMASE's methodological value for studying interventions in small- and medium-scale social settings and its interdisciplinary potential. The official code is available at: https://github.com/armihia/CMASE.
Jul 25, 2025

From the Fluency Fallacy to the Micro-to-Macro Validity Gap: Opportunities and Pitfalls of LLMs in Social Simulation

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into social simulation has generated enthusiasm but also raises methodological and epistemological challenges. This critical review examines LLMs as cognitive or decision-making components of simulated agents from a computational social science perspective. We argue that their behavioral and epistemic limitations can become systemic vulnerabilities when scaled to multi-agent societies. We map the evolving landscape of LLM-driven platforms, from narrative sandboxes to population-scale simulations, and develop a framework for analyzing the Micro-to-Macro Validity Gap: the propagation, amplification, or contraction of micro-level limitations-including hallucinations, stochastic inconsistency, representational biases, and alignment effects-into agent-level distortions (e.g., persona convergence) and macro-level risks (e.g., artificial consensus and behavioral homogenization). We also highlight evaluative vulnerabilities such as the Fluency Fallacy and automation bias. We identify contexts where LLM-based agents offer operational value, including serious games, participatory environments, and exploratory modeling, distinguishing these uses from confirmatory research with unconstrained models and precise social forecasting. Finally, we examine theory-driven hybrid architectures embedding LLMs in explicit, mechanistic, and reproducible Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) frameworks. While promising, these architectures do not guarantee epistemic control: validity requires multi-level evaluation of environmental dynamics, individual behavior, cross-level interactions, and aggregate outcomes. They also remain vulnerable to physics washing.
Jul 12, 2025

LLM Bidders Preserve the Mechanism-Level Orderings of Human Bidders

Training on vast amounts of human-generated data has motivated growing interest in using large language models (LLMs) to simulate human behavior. We ask which features of human behavior general-purpose models preserve when used out of the box in auctions, where multiple bidders interact under explicit rules and incentives. We evaluate five LLMs across seven laboratory settings against human benchmarks reconstructed from published experiments, with uncertainty bands for the private-value comparisons. Our main focus is on three large models without extended test-time reasoning: GPT-4o, Claude3.5 Haiku, and Gemini2.0 Flash. LLM and human deviations from theory differ in magnitude and often in direction: humans overbid in second-price auctions, whereas most models that deviate underbid. Surprisingly, without task-specific fine-tuning or calibration to human bids, the three non-reasoning large models robustly preserve key orderings of auction formats by deviation from theory. First-price auctions are harder than second-price, and ascending clocks reduce deviations relative to sealed bids wherever data are adequate. Kendall's τbτ_b between the human and GPT-4o difficulty rankings is 0.600.60 and positive in every joint bootstrap draw. The reasoning model bids almost at equilibrium in the observed private-value settings, leaving little variation in errors to compare; the small model's large errors yield an inverted ranking. All five models nevertheless reproduce the stronger first-price winner's curse. Clock framing improves bidding for two of the three non-reasoning large models, and GPT-4o recovers the ordering of last-minute bidding across closing rules in an eBay-style marketplace.
Jun 24, 2025

LLM-Based Social Simulations Require a Boundary

This position paper argues that LLM-based social simulations require clear boundaries to make meaningful contributions to social science. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer promising capabilities for simulating human behavior, their tendency to produce homogeneous outputs, acting as an "average persona", fundamentally limits their ability to capture the behavioral diversity essential for complex social dynamics. We examine why heterogeneity matters for social simulations and how current LLMs fall short, analyzing the relationship between mean alignment and variance in LLM-generated behaviors. Through a systematic review of representative studies, we find that validation practices often fail to match the heterogeneity requirements of research questions: while most papers include ground truth comparisons, fewer than half explicitly assess behavioral variance, and most that do report lower variance than human populations. We propose that researchers should: (1) match validation depth to the heterogeneity demands of their research questions, (2) explicitly report variance alongside mean alignment, and (3) constrain claims to collective-level qualitative patterns when variance is insufficient. Rather than dismissing LLM-based simulation, we advocate for a boundary-aware approach that ensures these methods contribute genuine insights to social science.
Jun 7, 2025

Modeling Earth-Scale Human-Like Societies with One Billion Agents

Understanding the dynamic evolution of complex social phenomena requires both high-fidelity modeling of human behavior and large-scale simulations. Traditional agent-based models (ABMs) have been employed to study these dynamics, but are constrained by simplified agent behaviors. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) enable agents to exhibit sophisticated social behaviors, yet face significant scaling challenges. We present Light Society, an agent-based simulation framework that advances both fronts. Light Society formalizes social processes as structured transitions of agent and environment states, governed by a set of LLM-powered simulation operations. Joint algorithmic and system optimizations, particularly a mixture-of-models engine that combines full LLMs with distilled surrogates, enable Light Society to efficiently simulate societies with over one billion agents. Grounded in real-world demographic profiles from the World Values Survey, simulations of Trust Games and opinion diffusion at up to one billion agents demonstrate Light Society's high fidelity and efficiency in modeling diverse social phenomena, providing researchers with a practical foundation for hypothesis testing and the study of emergent collective behaviors at planetary scale.
Apr 13, 2025

AgentDynEx: Nudging the Mechanics and Dynamics of Multi-Agent Simulations

Multi-agent large language model simulations have the potential to model complex human behaviors and interactions. If the mechanics are set up properly, unanticipated and valuable social dynamics can surface. However, it is challenging to consistently enforce simulation mechanics while still allowing for rich and emergent dynamics. We present AgentDynEx, an AI system that helps set up, track, and repair simulations. Specifically, AgentDynEx introduces milestones that act as checkpoints and failure conditions that act as guardrails to ensure dynamics are relevant and mechanics are respected as the simulation progresses. It also introduces a method called nudging, where the system dynamically reflects on simulation progress and gently intervenes if it begins to deviate from intended outcomes. A technical evaluation found that nudging enables simulations to progress further without reducing the presence notable dynamics compared to simulations without nudging. A case study with AgentDynEx documented instances where real users were able to simulate lived experiences. We discuss the importance of nudging as a technique for guiding agents towards desirable behaviors while preserving their freedom of choice.
Jan 15, 2025

LLM-based Human Simulations Have Not Yet Been Reliable

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed for simulating human behaviors across diverse domains. However, our position is that current LLM-based human simulations remain insufficiently reliable, as evidenced by significant discrepancies between their outcomes and authentic human actions. Our investigation begins with a systematic review of LLM-based human simulations in social, economic, policy, and psychological contexts, identifying their common frameworks, recent advances, and persistent limitations. This review reveals that such discrepancies primarily stem from inherent limitations of LLMs and flaws in simulation design, both of which are examined in detail. Building on these insights, we propose a systematic solution framework that emphasizes enriching data foundations, advancing LLM capabilities, and ensuring robust simulation design to enhance reliability. Finally, we introduce a structured algorithm that operationalizes the proposed framework, aiming to guide credible and human-aligned LLM-based simulations. To facilitate further research, we provide a curated list of related literature and resources at https://github.com/Persdre/awesome-llm-human-simulation.
Nov 15, 2024

LLM Agents Grounded in Self-Reports Enable General-Purpose Simulation of Individuals

Machine learning can predict human behavior well when substantial structured data are available for well-defined outcomes. Such models are typically outcome-specific, however, requiring training data for each target outcome, limiting their applicability to new domains. We test whether large language models (LLMs) can relax these requirements by using self-report data to build attitudinal and behavioral simulations, or "generative agents," that can predict responses across outcomes without outcome-specific training data. Using data from a diverse national sample of 1,052 Americans, we built agents from (i) two-hour, semi-structured interviews elicited using the American Voices Project interview schedule, (ii) structured surveys including General Social Survey items and the Big Five personality inventory, or (iii) both sources combined. On held-out General Social Survey items, interview-only, survey-only, and combined agents achieved accuracies equal to 83%, 82%, and 86% of participants' own two-week test-retest consistency benchmark, respectively, compared with 74% for demographics-only agents. Combining interviews and surveys produced the highest accuracy, though gains over either source alone were modest, suggesting that predictive benefits from data begin to asymptote once the model has observed sufficient evidence within a domain. We find that these agents also predict personality traits, economic-game behavior, and experimental responses, while reducing accuracy disparities across racial and ideological groups relative to demographics-only agents. Together, these results show that LLM agents grounded in qualitative or quantitative self-reports can support general-purpose simulation of individuals across outcomes, without requiring task-specific training data.
Jul 15, 2024

When AI Meets Finance (StockAgent): Large Language Model-based Stock Trading in Simulated Real-world Environments

Can AI Agents simulate real-world trading environments to investigate the impact of external factors on stock trading activities (e.g., macroeconomics, policy changes, company fundamentals, and global events)? These factors, which frequently influence trading behaviors, are critical elements in the quest for maximizing investors' profits. Our work attempts to solve this problem through large language model based agents. We have developed a multi-agent AI system called StockAgent, driven by LLMs, designed to simulate investors' trading behaviors in response to the real stock market. The StockAgent allows users to evaluate the impact of different external factors on investor trading and to analyze trading behavior and profitability effects. Additionally, StockAgent avoids the test set leakage issue present in existing trading simulation systems based on AI Agents. Specifically, it prevents the model from leveraging prior knowledge it may have acquired related to the test data. We evaluate different LLMs under the framework of StockAgent in a stock trading environment that closely resembles real-world conditions. The experimental results demonstrate the impact of key external factors on stock market trading, including trading behavior and stock price fluctuation rules. This research explores the study of agents' free trading gaps in the context of no prior knowledge related to market data. The patterns identified through StockAgent simulations provide valuable insights for LLM-based investment advice and stock recommendation. The code is available at https://github.com/MingyuJ666/Stockagent.
Jun 20, 2024

Artificial Leviathan: Exploring Social Evolution of LLM Agents Through the Lens of Hobbesian Social Contract Theory

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) and advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) offer an opportunity for computational social science research at scale. Building upon prior explorations of LLM agent design, our work introduces a simulated agent society where complex social relationships dynamically form and evolve over time. Agents are imbued with psychological drives and placed in a sandbox survival environment. We conduct an evaluation of the agent society through the lens of Thomas Hobbes's seminal Social Contract Theory (SCT). We analyze whether, as the theory postulates, agents seek to escape a brutish "state of nature" by surrendering rights to an absolute sovereign in exchange for order and security. Our experiments unveil an alignment: Initially, agents engage in unrestrained conflict, mirroring Hobbes's depiction of the state of nature. However, as the simulation progresses, social contracts emerge, leading to the authorization of an absolute sovereign and the establishment of a peaceful commonwealth founded on mutual cooperation. This congruence between our LLM agent society's evolutionary trajectory and Hobbes's theoretical account indicates LLMs' capability to model intricate social dynamics and potentially replicate forces that shape human societies. By enabling such insights into group behavior and emergent societal phenomena, LLM-driven multi-agent simulations, while unable to simulate all the nuances of human behavior, may hold potential for advancing our understanding of social structures, group dynamics, and complex human systems.
Jun 3, 2022

Simulation of Crowd Egress with Environmental Stressors

This article introduces a modeling framework to characterize evacuee response to environmental stimuli during emergency egress. The model is developed in consistency with stress theory, which explains how an organism reacts to environmental stressors (e.g., alarm signals or hazardous factors such as smoke and fire). We integrate the theory into the well-known social force model, and develop a framework to simulate crowd evacuation behavior in multi-compartment buildings. Our method serves as a theoretical basis to study crowd movement at bottlenecks, and simulate their herding behavior and way-finding activities in normal and hazardous conditions. The pre-movement behavior is also investigated by using opinion dynamics with a social group model. The algorithms have been partly tested in FDS+EVAC as well as our simulation platform crowdEgress.