In-Context Learning

Also known as ICL

Overview

In-context learning (ICL) studies how a model can infer a task, rule, or preference from information in its prompt and apply it to new inputs, making adaptation possible without task-specific weight updates. Common approaches include few-shot demonstrations, retrieval and ordering strategies, synthetic-task pretraining for prior-fitted models, and test-time optimization of prompts or memory; evaluations range from synthetic regression and Markov tasks to language, vision, time-series, graph, and robotics benchmarks. Theory and mechanistic studies examine what algorithms attention and recurrent models implement, and how context length, training-task diversity, and architecture affect generalization. A central tension is that models may encode contextual information yet fail to use it reliably: performance can be sensitive to example quality, order, noise, and conflict with pretrained priors, while longer contexts increase inference costs.

Latest papers

404 papers64 papers in the last four weeks, up 52% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

May 21, 2026

RAS: Reflection-Augmented Scaling with In-Context Learning for Executable Cypher Query Generation

Inference-time scaling can reduce errors in structured query generation, but methods to allocate the compute for query code generation remains underexplored. We study Text2Cypher, where language models generate Cypher queries that execute against property graph databases. Non-executable queries constitute a distinct syntactic failure separate from semantic inaccuracy: a syntax error triggers a system-generated error message from the database. These error messages are typically discarded at inference time rather than leveraged through in-context learning (ICL). We compare two inference methods: Independent Scaling (IS), which performs memoryless resampling, and Reflection-Augmented Scaling (RAS), which conditions each new attempt on prior execution feedback via ICL. Across three Neo4j datasets and five code-specialized language models, RAS reduces the Query Execution Error Rate by 41--50% at n{=}5, outperforming IS at 32--38%. Execution errors are not merely failures to discard but actionable feedback, and structuring inference-time compute around them is a more efficient path to executability than scaling independent samples.
May 21, 2026

From Residuals to Reasons: LLM-Guided Mechanism Inference from Tabular Data

A persistent challenge in machine learning for scientific applications is jointly achieving prediction and understanding. Statistical models excel on structured data but operate as black boxes, while existing interpretability methods are largely inspective: they answer "which features matter?" but do not articulate how features interact or refine explanations iteratively alongside human understanding. Asking an LLM to predict the target directly forces it to search the entire output space; we instead anchor predictions with a base model and ask the LLM the narrower question of what that model is missing. We introduce Multi-Agent Residual In-Context Learning (MARICL), an agentic framework in which LLM agents analyze where a base-model fails, hypothesize missing structure from high-residual examples provided in context, and produce explicit correction terms refined through multi-turn textual gradient optimization. Across nine benchmarks spanning scientific, biomedical, socioeconomic, and synthetic settings, MARICL improves consistently over its base model on all datasets. To test whether these corrections reflect real structure or batch-specific noise, we freeze formulas learned on one experimental batch of the Cell-Free Protein dataset and apply them (with no retraining and no further LLM calls) to held-out batches. Within the same reagent protocol, the frozen formulas improve predictions in over 92% of cases; across a different protocol, they fail systematically. The success boundary aligns with the biochemistry, not the batch count; direct evidence of mechanistic generalization.
May 20, 2026

Point Cloud Sequence Encoding for Material-conditioned Graph Network Simulators

Graph Network Simulators (GNSs) have emerged as powerful surrogates for complex physics-based simulation, offering inherent differentiability and orders-of-magnitude speedups over traditional solvers. However, GNSs typically assume access to the underlying material parameters, such as stiffness or viscosity, severely limiting their utility in realistic experimental settings. While recent meta-learning approaches address the parameter dependency by inferring properties from mesh trajectories, reconstructing a mesh from an observed scene is challenging. In this work, we introduce Point Cloud Encoding for Accurate Context Handling (PEACH), a novel framework that applies in-context learning on point clouds to adapt a learned simulator to unseen physical properties during inference. Our approach relies on a novel spatio-temporal point cloud sequence encoder, as well as two forms of auxiliary supervision to help improve simulation fidelity. We demonstrate that PEACH is capable of accurate zero-shot sim-to-real transfer on a challenging, dynamic scene. Experiments on simulation scenes show that PEACH even outperforms mesh-based baselines on prediction accuracy, while being much more practical for real-world deployment.
May 20, 2026

Distributional Alignment as a Criterion for Designing Task Vectors in In-Context Learning

In-context learning (ICL) allows large language models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks through demonstrations, yet it suffers from escalating inference costs as context length increases. While task vectors offer a promising alternative by compressing demonstrations into compact hidden-state representations, their quality has been evaluated only through downstream task accuracy. This indirect criterion provides limited insight into how to design more effective task vector extraction methods. In this paper, we posit that inference using task vectors should align their predictive distribution with that of ICL. To quantify this, we introduce dNTPd_{\text{NTP}}, a metric that measures the discrepancy in next-token probabilities between task vector-based and ICL-based inference. Our empirical analysis reveals that dNTPd_{\text{NTP}} serves as a performance proxy, exhibiting a strong negative correlation with downstream accuracy. Motivated by this, we develop Linear Task Vector (LTV), a method designed to minimize dNTPd_{\text{NTP}} via a closed-form linear mapping that estimates demonstration effects through regression. Across eight classification benchmarks and five LLMs, LTV consistently outperforms existing task vector baselines, improving average accuracy by 9.2% while reducing inference latency. We further show that LTV outperforms the baselines on regression tasks. Moreover, we investigate the transferability of LTV across different model scales; an aspect that has remained nascent in task vector research. Specifically, we empirically show that task vectors from a larger model can enhance a smaller model's performance by 6.4%, suggesting a new utility for extracted task representations.
May 19, 2026

Do as I Say, Not as I Do: Instruction-Induction Conflict in LLMs

Language models are trained to follow instructions, but they are also powerful pattern completers. What happens when these two objectives conflict? We construct conversations in which a user instruction to behave in a target way T (e.g., always output a specific token, answer in a particular language, or adopt a persona) is opposed by N hardcoded assistant turns demonstrating a competing pattern P. We then measure instruction-following (IF) rates in this setting, across 13 models and 16 different instructions, for up to 50 turns. Average instruction-following rates range from 1% to 99% across models, largely uncorrelated with standard capability benchmarks. The transition from instruction-following to pattern-following is universal but highly model-dependent. Robustness is modulated both by instruction content, with models resisting induction longer when instructions align with their trained value priors, and by output format, with diverse multi-token responses proving substantially more resistant than single-token outputs. Chain-of-thought reasoning improves robustness but does not eliminate susceptibility, and can produce dissociation between correct deliberation and incorrect output. When asked to predict their behavior in this setting, models achieve 83.5% accuracy on average but systematically underestimate their own resistance to induction pressure. These results suggest that instruction-following remains brittle under induction pressure even for otherwise capable models, and that output diversity, rather than semantic engagement with the input, is the primary factor predicting robustness.
May 18, 2026

Easier to Judge than to Find: Predicting In-Context Learning Success for Demonstration Selection

In-context learning (ICL) is highly sensitive to which demonstrations appear in the prompt, but selecting them is expensive because the space of possible demonstration contexts and combinations is enormous. We argue that demonstration selection is easier to judge than to find: predicting whether a specific query--context pair (q,D)(q,D) will succeed is cheaper and more general than searching for an optimal D⋆D^\star. Based on this insight, we propose DiSP, a sample-and-judge framework that stratifies queries by difficulty. DiSP runs random demonstration trials to estimate success rate of each training query, trains a lightweight router to predict difficulty from the query, and trains level-specific judges for sampled demonstrations. At inference, DiSP performs stop-on-acceptance judging under an explicit budget, emitting diagnostic risk tags when no suitable context is found. Across five classification datasets with Llama3--8B and Qwen2.5--7B, DiSP achieves the best average accuracy, improving over strong learned selection baselines by up to 3.4%, while achieving up to 23×23\times end-to-end wall-clock speedup.
May 18, 2026

Geometry-Aware Uncertainty Coresets for Robust Visual In-Context Learning in Histopathology

Vision-language models (VLMs) can couple visual perception with open-ended clinical reasoning, making them attractive for computational histopathology. However, fine-tuning billions of parameters on scarce, expert-annotated pathology data is prohibitive, while in-context learning (ICL), which conditions the VLM on demonstrative image-text pairs without parameter updates, suffers from high sensitivity to which examples are selected and how the query is phrased, producing unreliable diagnostics. Existing selection strategies rely on query-dependent nearest-neighbour retrieval that ignores global data structure, require costly parameter updates, or disregard the joint vision-text embedding geometry of VLMs. We propose GAUC, a training-free coreset selection method operating directly in the pre-trained multimodal embedding space. GAUC jointly optimises three objectives: (1) a Maximum Mean Discrepancy term enforcing distributional fidelity between coreset and full dataset, (2) an Effective Mutual Information Difference regulariser bounding performance degradation under prompt paraphrases by exploiting the VLM's joint vision-text alignment, and (3) a predictive-uncertainty (entropy) penalty suppressing ambivalent, hallucination-prone outputs. On CRC-100K and MHIST across multiple open-source VLM architectures, GAUC matches the accuracy of the strongest ICL selection and dataset-distillation baselines while substantially improving calibration, prompt robustness, and hallucination rates, all without a single gradient update.
May 18, 2026

Temporal Task Diversity: Inductive Biases Under Non-Stationarity in Synthetic Sequence Modelling

Modern deep learning science often assumes that neural networks learn from a fixed data distribution. However, many practically important learning problems involve data distributions that change throughout training. How does such non-stationarity impact the inductive biases of deep learning towards models with different structural, generalisation, and safety properties? A fruitful testbed for studying inductive bias is in-context linear regression sequence modelling, where small transformers display strikingly different generalisation patterns depending on the diversity of the (fixed) training task distribution. In this paper, we explore the effect of diversifying the task distribution across training time, finding that such temporal diversity leads to an increased bias towards generalisation over memorisation.
May 18, 2026

Context Memorization for Efficient Long Context Generation

Modern large language model (LLM) applications increasingly rely on long conditioning prefixes to control model behavior at inference time. While prefix-augmented inference is effective, it incurs two structural limitations: i) the prefix's influence fades as generation proceeds, and ii) attention computation over the prefix scales linearly with its length. Existing approaches either keep the prefix in attention while compressing it, or internalize it into model parameters through gradient-based training. The former still attends to the prefix at inference, while the latter is training-intensive and ill-suited to prefix updates. To address these issues, we propose attention-state memory, a training-free approach that externalizes the prefix into a lightweight, lookup-based memory of precomputed attention states between prefix and query tokens. On ManyICLBench with LLaMA-3.1-8B, our method improves accuracy over in-context learning at 1K-8K memory budgets while reducing attention latency by 1.36x at 8K, and surpasses full-attention RAG performance on NBA benchmark using only 20% of its memory footprint.
May 16, 2026

Large language models reorganize representational geometry during in-context learning

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable flexibility: they can adapt to novel tasks from in-context examples without any parameter updates, a capability known as in-context learning (ICL). Prior work on synthetic tasks has shown that ICL can implement specific algorithms, demonstrating architectural competence, and mechanistic analyses have identified key circuits that support this behavior. However, because in-context computation -- regardless of its algorithmic form -- relies on transformations in high-dimensional representation space, it remains unclear how the geometry of that space shapes ICL effectiveness. Motivated by the neuroscience view of classification as the untangling of neural representations, we hypothesize that ICL depends on the successful online untangling of task-relevant representations. To test this idea, we study how LLMs classify in-context examples whose labels are defined by the model's own internal representations with known structure. We show that ICL performance correlates systematically with the representational structure of the underlying classification task and that successful ICL is accompanied by geometric reorganization that increases online separability. We further find that LLM behavior is well described by a prototype-like algorithm that integrates evidence while reshaping representations to support classification. These findings offer a geometric account of ICL in pretrained LLMs, establish representational geometry as a mechanistic constraint on ICL, and quantify the gap between what pretrained representations afford and what in-context learning can exploit.
May 16, 2026

ACIL: Auto Chain of Thoughts for In-Context Learning

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have shown that Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning can substantially improve performance on complex reasoning tasks. At the same time, In-Context Learning (ICL) has become an important mechanism for adapting LLMs to new tasks without updating model parameters, using only examples provided in the prompt. However, standard ICL often struggles on tasks that require multi-step reasoning, because the demonstrations usually contain only input-output pairs and lack explicit intermediate reasoning steps. This paper introduces an Automatic Chain-of-Thought (Auto-CoT) framework to improve ICL by automatically constructing reasoning-enhanced demonstrations. Auto-CoT generates reasoning chains for input-output examples, augments the prompt context with structured intermediate explanations, and removes irrelevant or low-quality demonstrations through a systematic selection process. By incorporating high-quality reasoning examples into the ICL prompt, Auto-CoT guides the model toward more reliable reasoning and improves prediction accuracy. Experiments across multiple reasoning tasks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves ICL performance by providing explicit intermediate reasoning guidance.
May 15, 2026

In-context learning enables continental-scale subsurface temperature prediction from sparse local observations

Continental-scale knowledge of subsurface temperature is limited by the cost and sparsity of borehole measurements, but such information is essential for geothermal resource assessment and for understanding heat transport in the shallow crust. The thermal field reflects the interaction between lithology, crustal structure, radiogenic heat production, and advective fluid flow, sometimes producing sharp anomalies that are smoothed by conventional interpolation or difficult to capture with physical models. Here we introduce In-Context Earth, a transformer-based model that uses sparse local borehole observations as geological context to predict continuous temperature-at-depth fields with calibrated uncertainty. In the contiguous United States, the model achieves a mean absolute error of 4.7 °C, outperforming the physics-informed Stanford Thermal Model, a model based on AlphaEarth embeddings, the multimodal Transparent Earth model, and universal kriging, while resolving sharper thermal gradients in geothermal provinces. Its uncertainty estimates are well calibrated, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of 2.5%. Without finetuning, the model adapts to Alberta, Australia, and the United Kingdom (UK) using only 20 local observations at inference time, maintaining high accuracy in geologically distinct test regions with a mean absolute error of 2.2 °C in Alberta, 6.2 °C in Australia, and 5.4 °C in the UK. Interpretability analyses show that the model learns internal representations of subsurface properties it never observes during training, including seismic velocities, geochemistry, and crustal structure, and uses these representations in physically consistent ways. More broadly, this work shows that in-context learning can use sparse borehole observations for continental-scale subsurface characterization, without requiring dense measurements or region-specific retraining.
May 15, 2026

How Few-Shot Examples Add Up: A Causal Decomposition of Function Vectors in In-Context Learning

In-context learning (ICL) excels at new tasks from minimal examples, yet we still lack a mechanistic explanation of how few-shot prompts shape a model's function vector (FV)--a causal activation direction that drives task behavior on the ICL query. Across tasks and models, an nn-shot FV is well-approximated by a linear combination of example-level sub-FVs, suggesting additive and composable contributions from individual demonstrations. Beyond additivity, we show that models contextualize individual examples' representations based on prior examples to adaptively reweight which demonstrations dominate the FV: attention shifts toward examples that are more informative and less ambiguous under the context. Finally, a causal decomposition separates Query-Key routing from Value updates, finding that contextualization's most consistent contributions to FV quality arise from Query-Key alignment--particularly in ambiguous settings--while Value-mediated effects are more heterogeneous. Together, these results unify additive superposition with context-dependent attention reweighting into a mechanistic, testable account of how few-shot prompts implement tasks.
May 14, 2026

KGPFN: Unlocking the Potential of Knowledge Graph Foundation Model via In-Context Learning

Knowledge graph (KG) foundation models aim to generalize across graphs with unseen entities and relations by learning transferable relational structure. However, most existing methods primarily emphasize relation-level universality, while in-context learning, the other pillar of foundation models remains under-explored for KG reasoning. In KGs, context is inherently structured and heterogeneous: effective prediction requires conditioning on the local context around the query entities as well as the global context that summarizes how a relation behaves across many instances. We propose KGPFN, a KG foundation model using Prior-data Fitted Network that unifies transferable relational regularities with inference-time in-context learning from structured context. KGPFN first learns relation representations via message passing on relation graphs to capture cross-graph relational invariances. For query-specific reasoning, it encodes local neighborhoods using a multi-layer NBFNet as local context. To enable ICL at global scale, it constructs relation-specific global context by retrieving a large set of instances of the query relation together with their local neighborhoods, and aggregates them within a Prior-Data Fitted Network framework that combines feature-level and sample-level attention. Through multi-graph pretraining on diverse KGs, KGPFN learns when to instantiate reusable patterns and when to override them using contextual evidence. Experiments on 57 KG benchmarks demonstrate that KGPFN achieves strong adaptation to previously unseen graphs through in-context learning alone, consistently outperforming competitive fine-tuned KG foundation models. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/KGPFN.
May 14, 2026

In-Context Learning for Data-Driven Censored Inventory Control

We study inventory control with decision-dependent censoring, focusing on the censored or repeated newsvendor (R-NV), where each order quantity determines whether demand is fully observed or censored by sales. Existing approaches based on parametric Thompson sampling (TS) can be brittle under prior mismatch, while offline imputation methods need not transfer to online learning. Motivated by the predictive view of decision making, we combine these ideas by taking oracle actions on learned completions of latent demand. We propose in-context generative posterior sampling (ICGPS), which uses modern generative models that are meta-trained offline and deployed online by in-context autoregressive generation. Theoretically, we show that the Bayesian regret of ICGPS with a learned completion kernel is bounded by the Bayesian regret of a TS benchmark with the ideal completion kernel plus a deployment penalty scaling as T\sqrt{T} times the square root of the completion mismatch. This yields a plug-in template for operational problems with known TS regret bounds. For R-NV, we derive sublinear Bayesian regret by reducing censored feedback to bandit convex optimization feedback. We also show that, under reasonable coverage and stability assumptions, the online completion mismatch is controlled by the offline censored predictive mismatch, so offline predictive quality transfers to online performance. Practically, we instantiate ICGPS with ChronosFlow, which combines a frozen time-series transformer backbone with a trainable conditional normalizing-flow head for fast censoring-consistent sampling. In benchmark experiments, ChronosFlow-ICGPS matches correctly specified TS, outperforms myopic and UCB-style baselines, and is robust to prior mismatch and distribution shift. ChronosFlow-ICGPS also performs well for the real-world SuperStore dataset, especially under heavy censoring.
May 13, 2026

Many-Shot CoT-ICL: Making In-Context Learning Truly Learn

While many-shot ICL achieves remarkable performance, prior studies of its scaling behavior have mainly focused on non-reasoning tasks. In this work, we study many-shot ICL on reasoning tasks, with a particular focus on many-shot chain-of-thought in-context learning (CoT-ICL). Analyzing across non-reasoning and reasoning tasks and across non-reasoning and reasoning-oriented LLMs, we identify several distinctive properties of many-shot CoT-ICL. We further interpret these findings by viewing many-shot CoT-ICL as in-context test-time learning rather than scaled pattern matching, and suggest two principles: (i) demonstrations should be easy for the target model to understand, and (ii) they should be ordered to support a smooth conceptual progression. Guided by the principle, we propose Curvilinear Demonstration Selection (CDS), a simple ordering method that yields up to a 5.42 percentage-point gain on a math task with 64 demonstrations. Overall, our results reframe the long context window from a retrieval buffer into a structured curriculum for in-context test-time learning.
May 13, 2026

IV-ICL: Bounding Causal Effects with Instrumental Variables via In-Context Learning

The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound estimands are required -- e.g., Balke-Pearl equations in binary IV -- and even when available, designing accurate estimators requires manual effort tailored to each estimand. While direct Bayesian inference of the causal effects, instead of the bounds, circumvents these challenges, it is often computationally intensive and suffers from high prior sensitivity or under-dispersed posteriors. As a remedy, we introduce IV-ICL, an amortized Bayesian in-context learning method that learns the marginal posterior distribution of the causal effects directly and derives bounds as its quantiles. Unlike standard variational inference that optimizes exclusive KL divergence, amortized Bayesian inference minimizes the expected inclusive KL, a mass-covering objective. We empirically observe that optimizing inclusive KL can recover the entire identified set across diverse data-generating processes, while exclusive-KL (e.g. with variational inference) of the same Bayesian formulation collapses onto a single mode and fails to cover the identified set. We evaluate IV-ICL on synthetic and semi-synthetic IV benchmarks and show it produces intervals that are more reliably valid and more informative compared to efficient semi-parametric, Bayesian, and plug-in baselines, at 20-500x lower inference time. Beyond methodology, we propose a procedure to convert randomized controlled trials into IV benchmarks with provably preserved ground-truth causal effects that enables a more realistic evaluation of partial-identification methods.
May 13, 2026

VIP-COP: Context Optimization for Tabular Foundation Models

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for in-context learning on structured data, enabling direct prediction on new tabular tasks without task-specific training. However, their effectiveness is constrained by context length limits, restricting application to medium-scale data and degrading performance when inference-time data exceed pretraining size distributions. Our work introduces VIP-COP, estimating the Value of Importance for Prediction of training examples and features for hard Context OPtimization for TFMs. Its explicit selection mechanism suppresses noise and isolates influential data, enabling the model to also benefit from data augmentation by prioritizing high-value augmented samples and features. VIP-COP is (i) fast, boosting performance often within minutes of optimization, based on an online KernelSHAP-based regression with iterative refinement, value-guided context sampling, and multi-fidelity pruning; (ii) budget-aware and any-time, improving with additional test-time compute unlike heuristics that produce fixed contexts; (iii) model-aware yet fully black-box, requiring no access to model internals, making it compatible with both proprietary and open-source TFMs; (iv) interpretable, identifying discrete ``Very Important Predictors'' (samples and features) that maximize signal-to-noise, which makes it (v) robust, isolating high-value data from noise. In contrast, soft-prompt optimization requires model gradients, produces abstract latent tokens, and lacks explicit signal discrimination. Extensive experiments show that VIP-COP consistently outperforms heuristic and optimized baselines across large-scale high-dimensional testbeds, including data augmentation and data-noise settings, establishing a new state of the art in test-time context refinement for TFMs.
May 12, 2026

In-Context Learning Operates as Concept Subspace Learning

Regression and Bayesian accounts of in-context learning (ICL) explain how demonstrations can induce predictors, while mechanistic analyses often identify compact activation directions that steer prompted behavior. However, it remains unclear whether structured demonstrations induce low-dimensional concept inference. We study this question through a concept-subspace view of ICL, in which tasks vary only along intrinsic concept coordinates, although inputs are observed in a high-dimensional ambient space. For ridge and least-squares ICL proxies, prediction decomposes exactly into concept-coordinate regression and off-subspace leakage. Under block-diagonal or near-block-diagonal covariance assumptions, the leading estimation and nuisance-sensitivity terms scale with the dimension of the concept subspace, while residual effects are controlled by cross-subspace coupling. This separation gives a mechanistic prediction: recoverable task information should concentrate in a low-dimensional, task-aligned activation subspace. On CounterFact-derived multi-relation prompts with Llama-3-8B, a 68--73-dimensional subspace of the 4096-dimensional residual stream restores 78.8% of the clean--corrupted accuracy gap, whereas patching the complementary subspace restores 0%. Concept swaps redirect predictions toward injected relations, while random and cross-task matched-rank controls are largely ineffective. Additional experiments on Qwen2.5-7B and a controlled cross-lingual rule task show the same qualitative pattern. These results support concept subspaces as compact, task-aligned mediators of recoverable ICL behavior in structured task families, without implying full-circuit recovery.
May 12, 2026

Learning, Fast and Slow: Towards LLMs That Adapt Continually

Large language models (LLMs) are trained for downstream tasks by updating their parameters (e.g., via RL). However, updating model parameters forces them to absorb task-specific information, which can result in catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity. In contrast, in-context learning with fixed LLM parameters can cheaply and rapidly adapt to task-specific requirements (e.g., prompt optimization), but cannot by itself typically match the performance gains available through updating LLM parameters. Inspired by how human learning works at multiple time scales (e.g., System 1 vs 2), we propose a fast-slow learning framework for LLMs, instantiated with model parameters as "slow" weights and optimized context as "fast" weights. These fast "weights" can learn from textual feedback to absorb the task-specific information, while allowing slow weights to stay closer to the base model and persist general reasoning behaviors. Fast-Slow Training (FST) is up to 3x more sample-efficient than only slow learning (RL) across reasoning tasks, while consistently reaching a higher performance asymptote. Moreover, FST-trained models remain closer to the base LLM (up to 70% less KL divergence), resulting in less catastrophic forgetting than RL-training. This reduced drift also preserves plasticity: after training on one task, FST trained models adapt more effectively to a subsequent task. In continual learning scenarios, where task domains change on the fly, FST continues to acquire each new task while RL stalls.
May 12, 2026

Stories in Space: In-Context Learning Trajectories in Conceptual Belief Space

Large Language Models (LLMs) update their behavior in context, which can be viewed as a form of Bayesian inference. However, the structure of the latent hypothesis space over which this inference operates remains unclear. In this work, we propose that LLMs assign beliefs over a low-dimensional geometric space - a conceptual belief space - and that in-context learning corresponds to a trajectory through this space as beliefs are updated over time. Using story understanding as a natural setting for dynamic belief updating, we combine behavioral and representational analyses to study these trajectories. We find that (1) belief updates are well-described as trajectories on low-dimensional, structured manifolds; (2) this structure is reflected consistently in both model behavior and internal representations and can be decoded with simple linear probes to predict behavior; and (3) interventions on these representations causally steer belief trajectories, with effects that can be predicted from the geometry of the conceptual space. Together, our results provide a geometric account of belief dynamics in LLMs, grounding Bayesian interpretations of in-context learning in structured conceptual representations.
May 12, 2026

In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems

Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations of such shifts remain scarce, preventing the development of reliable early warning systems. Conventional statistical and spectral indicators, such as increasing variance, tend to fail under realistic conditions of limited data and correlated noise, whereas existing deep learning classifiers do not extrapolate beyond their training data distribution. In this work, we introduce TipPFN, an in-context learning (ICL) framework that uses a prior-data fitted network to infer a system's proximity to a critical transition. Trained on our novel synthetic data generator, which is based on canonical bifurcation scenarios coupled to diverse, randomized stochastic dynamics, TipPFN flexibly capitalizes on contexts of various sizes, complexity and dimensionalities. We demonstrate robust, state-of-the-art early detection of critical transitions in previously unseen tipping regimes, sim-to-real examples, and real-world observations in both ICL and zero-shot settings.
May 12, 2026

Instruct-ICL: Instruction-Guided In-Context Learning for Post-Disaster Damage Assessment

Rapid and accurate situational awareness is essential for effective response during natural disasters, where delays in analysis can significantly hinder decision-making. Training task-specific models for post-disaster assessment is often time-consuming and computationally expensive, making such approaches impractical in time-critical scenarios. Consequently, pretrained multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative for post-disaster visual question answering (VQA), a task that aims to answer structured questions about visual scenes by jointly reasoning over images and text. While these models demonstrate strong multimodal reasoning capabilities, their responses can be sensitive to prompt formulation, which can limit their reliability in real-world disaster assessment scenarios. In this paper, we investigate whether structured reasoning strategies can improve the reliability of pretrained MLLMs for post-disaster VQA. Specifically, we explore multiple prompting paradigms in which one MLLM is used to generate task-specific instructions that serve as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) guidance for a second MLLM. These instructions are incorporated during answer generation with varying degrees of in-context learning (ICL), enabling the model to leverage both explicit reasoning guidance and contextual examples. We conduct our evaluation on the FloodNet dataset and compare these approaches against a zero-shot baseline. Our results demonstrate that integrating instruction-driven CoT reasoning consistently improves answer accuracy.
May 11, 2026

Self-Attention as a Covariance Readout: A Unified View of In-Context Learning and Repetition

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit two striking and ostensibly unrelated behaviours: in-context learning (ICL) and repetitive generation. In both, the model behaves as though it had summarised the context into a population-level statistic and discarded token-level detail. We ask whether this ``summarisation and forgetting'' can be derived from the attention mechanism itself, and answer in the affirmative. Under stationary, ergodic and elliptical inputs, the softmax attention output converges almost surely to ΘVΣΘK⊤ΘQxtΘ_VΣΘ_K^{\top}Θ_Q x_t, where ΣΣ is the input covariance; the long-context limit is therefore a linear readout of the input's second-order statistics. Two consequences follow. (i) For in-context linear regression, a single softmax head can implement one step of population gradient descent. Stacking such heads with residual connections iterates this update and implements multiple gradient descent steps. (ii) Propagated across an LL-layer transformer, this readout drives the terminal hidden state at the parametric 1/t1/t rate to a deterministic function of the current token alone, so that autoregressive generation collapses asymptotically to a first-order Markov chain whose attracting orbits furnish a structural account of repetition and mode collapse. The two phenomena thus emerge as facets of a single covariance-readout principle.
May 10, 2026

One for All: A Non-Linear Transformer can Enable Cross-Domain Generalization for In-Context Reinforcement Learning

A central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL) is to learn models that generalize beyond the tasks on which they are trained, a goal traditionally pursued through multi-task and meta RL. Recently, transformer architectures have emerged as a promising approach, enabling adaptation to new tasks via in-context learning without explicit parameter updates. From a functional perspective, a transformer can be viewed as a functional operator that maps a context to a task-specific function. It is thus fundamental to understand and design this operator to support stronger generalization in RL. In this work, we address this resulting question of generalization from a kernel-based perspective by establishing a connection between non-linear transformers and kernel-based temporal difference learning. By interpreting the transformer as performing regression in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), we show that value functions from different domains can be represented using a shared set of weights, provided they lie within the same RKHS. Experiments on multiple MetaWorld domains support this interpretation, demonstrating convergence of the temporal-difference objective.
May 9, 2026

Large Language Models for Sequential Decision-Making: Improving In-Context Learning via Supervised Fine-Tuning

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable in-context learning (ICL) capabilities, yet their potential for sequential decision-making remains underexplored. In this paper, we study the ICL capabilities of LLMs in sequential decision-making settings, including Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), and Ambiguous POMDPs (APOMDPs). We fine-tune pretrained LLMs to perform few-shot decision-making directly from offline, oracle-labeled trajectories. Our framework enables flexible imitation of policies through supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Theoretically, we focus on linear MDPs and interpret a fine-tuned attention layer as implicitly estimating optimal Q-functions from in-context data. Building on this interpretation, we derive an end-to-end suboptimality bound for the induced policy that separates the in-context estimation error from the training-length bias. Empirically, across synthetic MDP, POMDP, and APOMDP settings, we find that fine-tuned LLMs achieve substantially smaller optimality gaps than in-context-only and random baselines, with especially large gains in longer-horizon, partially observed, and model-ambiguous environments. Together, these results show that supervised fine-tuning provides an effective route to endowing pretrained LLMs with sequential decision-making capabilities from offline data, which is an important advantage in domains such as healthcare where offline data are abundant.
May 9, 2026

PromptDx: Differentiable Prompt Tuning for Multimodal In-Context Alzheimer's Diagnosis

Deep learning models in medical imaging typically operate as parametric memory, diagnosing patients by recalling fixed knowledge learned during training. This contrasts sharply with clinical practice, where physicians employ analogical reasoning to diagnose new cases by referencing similar records from past exemplars. While In-Context Learning (ICL) frameworks such as Tabular Prior-Fitted Networks (TabPFN) offer a promising diagnosis-by-reference paradigm, they are designed with tabular-specific inductive priors and rely on non-differentiable preprocessing pipelines, leading to manifold mismatch and gradient fracture when applied to heterogeneous multimodal data. To address these limitations, we propose PromptDx, a novel diagnosis-by-reference framework that leverages a pre-trained TabPFN as an ICL engine while enabling seamless integration with multimodal representations. Our core contribution is a Differentiable Prompt Tuning (DPT) mechanism that aligns a Masked Multimodal Modeling module with the pre-trained ICL engine. By training a lightweight adapter as a differentiable surrogate for the engine's non-differentiable preprocessors, we enable an end-to-end optimization of multimodal prompts within the ICL paradigm. We validate our method on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset using 3D MRI and tabular biomarkers. Experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional parametric baselines. Notably, our method achieves superior performance using only 1% context samples compared to 30% in standard ICL, demonstrating exceptional manifold condensation ability. We further validate the generalizability of our DPT framework across six tabular datasets with diverse scales. Overall, our method offers a more data-efficient and clinically aligned paradigm for Alzheimer's Disease diagnosis.
May 8, 2026

Transformers Can Implement Preconditioned Richardson Iteration for In-Context Gaussian Kernel Regression

Mechanistic accounts of in-context learning (ICL) have identified iterative algorithms for linear regression and related linear prediction tasks, often using linear or ReLU attention variants. For nonlinear ICL, prior work has related softmax and kernelized attention to functional-gradient-type dynamics, but it remains unclear whether a standard transformer with softmax attention can implement a convergent solver with an end-to-end prediction-error guarantee. In this paper, we study in-context kernel ridge regression (KRR) with Gaussian kernels and show that a standard softmax-attention transformer can approximate the KRR predictor during its forward pass by implementing preconditioned Richardson iteration on the associated kernel linear system. Under bounded-data assumptions, we construct a single-head transformer with O(log⁡(1/ε))O(\log(1/ε)) blocks and MLP width O(N/ε)O(\sqrt{N/ε}) that achieves εε-accurate prediction for prompts of length NN. Our construction reveals a functional decomposition within the transformer architecture: softmax attention produces a row-normalized Gaussian-kernel operator needed for cross-token interactions, while ReLU MLP layers act locally to approximate the intra-token scalar arithmetic required by the update. Empirically, we train GPT-2-style transformers on Gaussian-process regression tasks to further test the preconditioned Richardson interpretation. Through linear probing, we compare the transformer's layer-wise predictions with the step-wise outputs of classical KRR solvers and find that its error profiles align most consistently with preconditioned Richardson iteration. Ablation studies further support this interpretation. Together, our theory and experiments identify preconditioned Richardson iteration as a concrete mechanism that softmax-attention transformers can realize for nonlinear in-context Gaussian-kernel regression.
May 8, 2026

Belief or Circuitry? Causal Evidence for In-Context Graph Learning

How do LLMs learn in-context? Is it by pattern-matching recent tokens, or by inferring latent structure? We probe this question using a toy graph random-walk across two competing graph structures. This task's answer is, in principle, decidable: either the model tracks global topology, or it copies local transitions. We present two lines of evidence that neither account alone is sufficient. First, reconstructing the internal representation structure via PCA reveals that at intermediate mixture ratios, both graph topologies are encoded in orthogonal principal subspaces simultaneously. This pattern is difficult to reconcile with purely local transition copying. Second, residual-stream activation patching and graph-difference steering causally intervene on this graph-family signal: late-layer patching almost fully transfers the clean graph preference, while linear steering moves predictions in the intended direction and fails under norm-matched and label-shuffled controls. Taken together, our findings are most consistent with a dual-mechanism account in which genuine structure inference and induction circuits operate in parallel.
May 8, 2026

Context-Gated Associative Retrieval: From Theory to Transformers

Hopfield networks and their generalizations have established deep connections among biological associative memories, statistical physics, and transformers. Yet most models treat retrieval as a fixed query-to-memory mapping, ignoring the role of external context in recall. In this work, we propose a two-stage associative memory architecture, wherein a context-gate subcircuit reshapes the retrieval energy landscape before and during recall. We show theoretically that context gating increases inter-memory separation while inducing sparsity, translating into exponential improvements in retrieval. Crucially, we prove that the system admits a unique self-consistent fixed point, revealing that the resulting retrieval state is driven by both a direct contextual bias and a second-order retrieval-gate feedback loop. We then bridge this theory to transformers; specifically, we evaluate a first-order approximation on Llama-3, confirming that in-context learning acts as context-gated retrieval. Native dynamics mirror our theory: context localizes a memory subspace, enabling the zero-shot query to cleanly discriminate. Ultimately, this framework provides a mechanistic link between associative memory theory and LLM phenomenology.