Large Language Model Forecasting

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9 papers in the last four weeks, up 13% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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  1. Do Your Own Research: Learning to Forecast by Learning to Search

    Oct 1, 2026Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko +3Large Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    Future Principle

  2. Auto-Formalizing Neuro-Symbolic Predictors

    Oct 1, 2026Samuele Bortolotti, Weixin Chen, Han Zhao +3Neuro-Symbolic FrameworkFormalization

    University of Trento, Italy · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA · University of Edinburgh, UK

  3. Reasoning Externalization for Faithful Large Language Model Narratives of Stock Return Predictions

    Sep 30, 2026Sujung Kim, Seung Hwan Cho, Sangjin Park +1Large Language Model ForecastingShapley Additive Explanations

    Department of Industrial Data Engineering, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea · School of Interdisciplinary Industrial Studies, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea

  4. RICE-Alpha: Reliability-Informed Correction with Event Graphs for LLM-Agent Stock Forecasting

    Sep 27, 2026Tong Liu, Lanmiao Liu, Xiang HuLarge Language Model ForecastingCorrection

    Zircon Security · Utrecht University · The Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics +1

  5. Forecast-Dojo: Replayable Environments for Benchmarking and Training LLM Forecasting Agents

    Sep 24, 2026Liqin Ye, Haorui Wang, Fardin Ahmed +8Large Language Model Forecasting

    Georgia Institute of Technology · Amazon · University of Florida

  6. West-WRF AI 2-km: High-Resolution Prediction of Integrated Vapor Transport and Precipitation

    Sep 22, 2026Nazak Rouzegari, Vesta Afzali Gorooh, Agniv Sengupta +6Artificial Intelligence Weather ModelsNumerical Weather Prediction

    Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), The Henry Samueli School of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, USA · Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA

  7. Competence-Gated Pooling of Language Models and Priors for Event Forecasting

    Sep 14, 2026Aditi Tiwari, Aashrith Bandaru, Heng JiLarge Language Model ForecastingCompetence

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois, USA

  8. It's All in the Way You Say It: The Role of Information Representation in LLM-Based Glycemic-Event Prediction

    Sep 8, 2026Andrea Apicella, Pasquale Arpaia, Matteo Orefice +2Continuous Glucose MonitoringLarge Language Model Forecasting

    Department of Information Engineering, Electrical Engineering, and Applied Mathematics (DIEM), University of Salerno, Fisciano (SA), Italy · Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy

  9. Decomposition-Guided Diffusion Language Models for Inertial Confinement Fusion Prediction

    Sep 7, 2026Xiang Zhang, Varchas Gopalaswamy, Rahman Ejaz +2Nuclear FusionLarge Language Model Forecasting

    Purdue University · University of Rochester

  10. LEAP: Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for LLM-based Probabilistic Forecasting

    Sep 1, 2026Yufei Chen, Yiran Zhao, Xiaogang Xu +3Large Language Model ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    1Shandong University · 2Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics · School of Software Technology, Zhejiang University +2

  11. Can Large Language Models Forecast What Researchers Study Next?

    Sep 1, 2026Fenghai Li, Zihan Tang, Haofei Yu +2Large Language Model ForecastingLarge Language Model Benchmarks

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

  12. Can LLMs Take the Pulse of the Economy? A Real-Time Evaluation of LLM Nowcasts on Macroeconomic Indicators

    Aug 31, 2026Xinyue Zhao, Ruiyi Zhang, Liqin Ye +3Large Language Model ForecastingLarge Language Model Evaluation

    Georgia Institute of Technology · University of California San Diego

  13. Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?

    Aug 9, 2026Lucas J. Howard, Elizabeth A. BarnesLarge Language Model ForecastingConditional Distribution

    Boston University, Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences

  14. Efficient Test-Time Scaling for LLM-based Time Series Forecasting

    Aug 9, 2026Xuan-May Le, Minh-Tuan Tran, Ling Luo +3Time Series ForecastingLarge Language Model Forecasting

    The University of Melbourne Melbourne, Victoria, Australia · Monash University Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

  15. Counterfactual Analysis via Large Language Models

    Aug 5, 2026Zonghao YangLarge Language Model ForecastingGenerative Pretrained Transformers

    Stevens Institute of Technology

  16. From Score Matrices to Football-Aware Match-State Simulation: An Auditable LLM Harness for Exact-Score Reranking

    Aug 5, 2026Shaopeng LiangLarge Language Model ForecastingModel Judgments

    Independent Researcher

  17. Otter: A Time-Aware, History-Conditioned Human Chess AI

    Aug 5, 2026Tarun Kumar SChessHuman Motion Prediction

    Peargent Labs Bangalore, India

  18. From Financial Sentiment Classification to Return Predictability: A QLoRA Benchmark of Large Language Models

    Aug 4, 2026Fusheng LuoFinancial Sentiment AnalysisLegal Natural Language Processing Benchmarks

    Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland, USA

  19. SocietyBench: Forecasting Counterfactual Social-World Evolution

    Aug 4, 2026Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li +1Large Language Model ForecastingCounterfactuals

  20. WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament

    Aug 4, 2026Zhenran Wang, Zhonghan Bian, Jinsong Li +1Large Language Model ForecastingCompetition

  21. LLM-SoccerArena: Benchmarking LLMs on Real-World Predictions in Sports

    Jul 27, 2026Jonas Schröder, Jonas Schweisthal, Oliver Müller +2Large Language Model ForecastingChatbot Arena

    MCML & LMU Munich Munich, Germany · Paderborn University Paderborn, Germany · University of Cologne Cologne, Germany

  22. FinAbstain: Uncertainty-Calibrated Multimodal RAG for Selective Financial Forecasting

    Jul 27, 2026Dorothy Torres, Wei Cheng, Henan HuangLarge Language Model ForecastingUncertainty Score

    School of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics 263 Academy Street, Room S204 Jersey City, NJ 07306 · School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science The Pennsylvania State University 207 Electrical Engineering West University Park, PA 16802, USA

  23. HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows

    Jul 27, 2026Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li +20Accurate Flood PredictionSen1Floods11

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (D.I.C.A.), Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano MI, Italy · College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, 443002 Yichang, China · 3Independent Researcher, Shandong, 252300, China +16

  24. WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting

    Jul 20, 2026Zhaokai Wang, Tianlin Gui, Jiayuan Rao +3Large Language Model ForecastingModel Evaluation

    Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Shanghai, China · Nanjing University +4

  25. FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches

    Jul 20, 2026Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason XuLarge Language Model ForecastingBetting

    University of Memphis Memphis, Tennessee, USA · QuantaInsight Seattle, Washington, USA

  26. Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters

    Jul 15, 2026Xiao Ye, Jacob Dineen, Evan Zhu +3Large Language Model ForecastingForesight

    School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University

  27. Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models

    Jul 10, 2026Hinal Jajal, Michal Mucha, Charles Sweat +3Large Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    Balyasny Asset Management

  28. What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness

    Jul 9, 2026Raphaël Sarfati, Pratyush Ranjan Tiwari, Siddharth Boppana +3Large Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    goodfire · eternis

  29. Shortcut Learning in Legal Judgment Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the UK Employment Tribunal

    Jul 5, 2026Joe Watson, Joana Ribeiro de Faria, Marcus Tomalin +6Large Language Model ForecastingClinical Prediction

    Faculty of Law, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom · The Psychometrics Centre, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom · Faculty of English, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom +3

  30. Measuring Judgment Quality in Natural-Language Explanations: Evidence from Forecasting Tournaments

    Jun 29, 2026Christopher W. Karvetski, Sheldon S. Huang, Simas Kučinskas +4Large Language Model ForecastingForecast

    Forecasting Research Institute · Good Judgment Inc · University of Toronto +4

  31. Diversity is the Strength of the AI Crowd

    Jun 29, 2026Matthew Aitchison, Scott Jeen, Toby Shevlane +1Large Language Model ForecastingArtificial Intelligence Models

    1Mantic Technologies, London, UK.

  32. Forecasting With LLMs: Improved Generalization Through Feature Steering

    Jun 25, 2026Humzah Merchant, Bradford LevyLarge Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    University of Chicago, Illinois, United States.

  33. Leakage-Aware Benchmarking of LLM Forecasting: Real-Time Nowcasts as the Decision-Time Input for Macro Factor Ranking

    Jun 21, 2026Mao Guan, Qian ChenLarge Language Model ForecastingLeakage

    Independent Researcher.

  34. David vs. Goliath in Next Activity Prediction: Argmax vs. LSTM, Transformer, and LLM

    Jun 14, 2026Hans Weytjens, Ingo WeberNext-Token PredictionLarge Language Model Forecasting

    Technical University of Munich, School of CIT, Germany · Fraunhofer Gesellschaft, Munich, Germany

  35. Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior

    Jun 11, 2026Haowei QianLarge Language Model ForecastingCognitive Science

    Independent Researcher

  36. Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

    Jun 9, 2026Haofei Yu, Yining Zhao, Guanyu Lin +1Large Language Model ForecastingBehavioral Foundation Models

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · Carnegie Mellon University

  37. Forecasting Future Behavior as a Learning Task

    Jun 9, 2026Mosh Levy, Yoav Goldberg, Asa Cooper SticklandLarge Language Model ForecastingReasoning Trajectory

    Bar-Ilan University · Constellation · UK AI Security Institute +1

  38. Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting

    Jun 4, 2026Thi Kim Ngan NguyenIntensive Care Unit Mortality PredictionLarge Language Model Forecasting

    Curtin University

  39. From Long News to Accurate Forecast: Importance-Aware Fusion and PRM-Guided Reflection for Time Series Forecasting

    Jun 2, 2026Mingyang Liu, Qingcan Kang, Yuke Wang +6Large Language Model ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science, City University of Hong Kong · Work done as an intern in Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab. · Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab

  40. Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting

    May 26, 2026Hui Dai, Ryan Teehan, Parsa Torabian +1Large Language Model ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Agentic Learning AI Lab, New York University · Chronologies AI

  41. Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most

    May 21, 2026Nick Merrill, Jaeho Lee, Ezra KargerLarge Language Model ForecastingFrontier Models

    Forecasting Research Institute · UC Berkeley

  42. HydroAgent: Closing the Gap Between Frontier LLMs and Human Experts in Hydrologic Model Calibration via Simulator-Grounded RL

    May 18, 2026Zhi Li, Songkun Yan, Jie Cao +4Probabilistic Basin-Scale Runoff LstmsFrontier Large Language Model Agents

    Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder · Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma · Department of Computer Science, University of Oklahoma +3

  43. SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland

    May 15, 2026Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato +5Dynamical DownscalingArtificial Intelligence Weather Models

    Swiss Data Science Center, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland · Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland · Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland +1

  44. Implicit Behavioral Decoding from Next-Step Spike Forecasts at Population Scale

    May 13, 2026John R. Minnick, Jesus Gonzalez-Ferrer, Kamran Hussain +6Neural RecordingsTime-To-First-Spike

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA · UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA · Department of Biomolecular Engineering, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, USA +2

  45. LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

    May 9, 2026Mingtian Tan, Mihir Parmar, Palash Goyal +5Large Language Model ForecastingRetrieval-Augmented Forecasting

    Google · University of Virginia

  46. Anticipating Innovation Using Large Language Models

    May 6, 2026Enrico Maria Fenoaltea, Filippo Santoro, Giordano De Marzo +2TechnologyLarge Language Model Forecasting

    Institute of Complex Systems (UBICS), Universitat de Barcelona · Centro Ricerche Enrico Fermi (CREF), Via Panisperna 89 A – 00184 Roma · University of Konstanz +1

  47. OracleProto: A Reproducible Framework for Benchmarking LLM Native Forecasting via Knowledge Cutoff and Temporal Masking

    May 5, 2026Yiding Ma, Chengyun Ruan, Kaibo Huang +2Large Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications

  48. PHBench: A Benchmark for Predicting Startup Series A Funding from Product Hunt Launch Signals

    May 3, 2026Yagiz Ihlamur, Ben Griffin, Rick ChenModel DiscoveryLarge Language Model Forecasting

    Amazon, Seattle, WA, USA · University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

  49. Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents

    May 1, 2026Maksym Nechepurenko, Pavel ShuvalovLarge Language Model ForecastingForesight

    Director of Research, Devnull, Dubai, UAE · Chief Technology Officer, Devnull, Dubai, UAE

  50. Agentic Forecasting with Structured Linguistic Beliefs

    Apr 20, 2026Kevin MurphyLarge Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada

  51. QuantSightBench: Evaluating LLM Quantitative Forecasting with Prediction Intervals

    Apr 17, 2026Jeremy Qin, Maksym AndriushchenkoLarge Language Model ForecastingFrontier Models

    ELLIS Institute Tübingen · Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems · Tübingen AI Center

  52. A Fast and Effective Solution to the Problem of Look-ahead Bias in LLMs

    Dec 7, 2025Humzah Merchant, Bradford LevyLarge Language Model ForecastingLookahead

    University of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637

  53. How Proper Scoring Rules Shape LLM Forecasting

    Date pendingBenjamin Turtel, Paul Wilczewski, Kris Skotheim +2Large Language Model ForecastingForecast

    Lightning Rod Labs · Technology and Operations Management, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France · Wharton School and School of Arts & Sciences, University of Pennsylvania