Object Detection Uncertainty Estimation

Open-set object detection (OSOD) suffers from a fundamental limitation under dense proposal mechanisms: highly overlapping proposals associated with the same object are often assigned contradictory known/unknown predictions. Existing methods perform open-set reasoning independently for each proposal, while ignoring the shared semantics among correlated proposals, resulting in fragmented detections and unstable open-set decisions. In this paper, we reformulate OSOD as an object-centric semantic inference problem, where correlated proposals jointly support a coherent region-level semantic decision. Based on this perspective, we propose OCSI-Net, a unified framework that combines object-centric semantic consistency with geometry-aware uncertainty stabilization. Specifically, OCSI-Net aggregates correlated proposals into structured region clusters and infers region-level semantics from aggregated semantic evidence, thereby enforcing coherent open-set predictions within the same object region. Furthermore, a geometry-aware uncertainty mechanism is introduced to stabilize optimization near open-set transition boundaries. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that OCSI-Net consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving the harmonic mean of known and unknown detection by an average of 6.83% over the second-best method.

Object detection models rely on large-scale annotated datasets that require substantial manual annotation effort. The labeling costs further increase when annotation uncertainty is captured through soft labels, as multiple annotations must be collected for each object. We address this challenge by introducing a semi-supervised framework for the uncertainty-aware annotation of object detection datasets. Our approach leverages open-vocabulary object detectors to generate region proposals and semantically meaningful object representations. Based on these representations, we construct an object-level similarity graph and propagate probabilistic label information. Our framework assigns soft labels to previously unlabeled objects, quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. We evaluate our method on four object detection benchmarks with soft-label annotations and demonstrate that high-quality annotations can be obtained with only a small fraction of manually labeled objects. Furthermore, we show that detectors trained on semi-automatically annotated data achieve performance comparable to models trained on fully manually annotated data. We achieve state-of-the-art downstream detection performance for the task of semi-supervised object detection on the COCO dataset, with 40.5% AP virtually matching the performance of the model trained on fully manually constructed data (40.9%) at only 1% of labeling costs. These results highlight the potential of open-vocabulary models and graph-based label propagation for efficient, accurate and uncertainty-aware pseudo-labeling.

Reliable uncertainty estimation is essential for deploying object detectors in autonomous systems operating in uncertain environments. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) provides a principled framework for uncertainty-aware classification by representing network outputs as evidence and interpreting predictions through subjective logic. However, existing evidential object detectors typically combine evidential classification with regression uncertainty models that do not share the same theoretical foundation. In this work, we propose an evidential version of YOLOv8 in which both classification and bounding-box regression are formulated within a common evidential framework. Our approach exploits YOLOv8's distribution-based bounding-box representation, allowing the evidential formulation to be applied not only to classification but also to localisation. As a result, both tasks produce belief, uncertainty, and probability estimates that can be interpreted within the Dempster--Shafer framework. Experiments on KITTI, MUSES, and nuScenes show that the resulting detector remains broadly competitive with standard YOLOv8 in terms of detection accuracy while providing a localisation uncertainty that effectively discriminates between correct and erroneous detections. Moreover, this uncertainty becomes increasingly discriminative under domain shift.

Anti-UAV systems increasingly fuse multiple sensors, yet their detection heads provide no per-modality reliability signal. This study evaluates whether evidential deep learning (EDL) heads, Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence fusion, and uncertainty-driven temporal sensor gating improve anti-UAV detection through a controlled ablation on three benchmarks: thermal tracking (AntiUAV600), RGB-audio-RF classification (TRIDENT), and RGB-IR tracking (MM-UAV). The EDL training objective improves accuracy over retrained sigmoid baselines (+5.9 percentage points in accuracy and a tripled tracker-on-absent rate in E1; +4.8 percentage points in classification accuracy in E2, surviving a clip-clustered bootstrap, p = 0.011) and ranks classification errors substantially better (entropy UAUC approximately 0.94 vs. 0.51). The remaining components do not support their respective hypotheses. DS fusion does not outperform simple probability averaging. Dirichlet vacuity adds no ranking power beyond predictive entropy and inverts at the detection level, where extreme background imbalance causes it to encode class membership rather than error likelihood, a failure also observed for entropy and sigmoid confidence. Temporal gating preserves accuracy only when nearly inactive and yields no realised latency saving on shared-backbone hardware. The benefit of evidential learning therefore arises primarily from its training objective rather than its uncertainty estimate; a crop-level control further localises the detection-level breakdown to anchor-level evaluation rather than the learned representation.

Object detection is a safety-critical component of autonomous driving. It is essential to quantify the uncertainty in bounding-box predictions for safety assurance. Post hoc uncertainty quantification without retraining aligns with real-world deployment requirements; therefore, we employ the Laplace approximation. Because instance-level uncertainty is needed, linearized inference methods that require multiple backpropagations are not time-efficient, and sampling-based methods are not fully post hoc. We propose Monte-Carlo generalized linearized model (MC-GLM), which provides instance-level and approximately post hoc uncertainty quantification. The number of samples required in the Monte Carlo step is constant and independent of the number of output instances, so it can be parallelized. Experiments on the nuScenes dataset with the CenterPoint detector validate the effectiveness of our method, and the resulting uncertainties exhibit good quality.

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object detection. However, object detection introduces structured multi-output predictions, complicating the application of classical CP theory developed for single outputs. In addition, standard, unscaled CP produces fixed-width prediction intervals across inputs, leading to unnecessary width for low-uncertainty predictions. While scaled CP addresses this by adapting the interval width to an input-dependent uncertainty estimate, prior work has neither systematically compared unscaled and scaled CP for multi-class object detection, nor integrated CP with a complementary uncertainty quantification method in this setting. We fill this gap by: (i) applying CP coordinate-wise to bounding box corners with a Bonferroni correction for box-level guarantees; (ii) scaling the resulting intervals using per-prediction aleatoric uncertainty estimates derived from a probabilistic object detector trained with loss attenuation, evaluated in uncalibrated and two calibrated variants; (iii) extending to a two-step pipeline that constructs prediction sets for the class using RAPS and conditions the conformalized bounding boxes on the predicted class set. Across three autonomous driving datasets (KITTI, BDD, CODA), including a cross-domain setting under distribution shift, scaled CP consistently improves interval sharpness over unscaled CP, achieving up to 19% higher IoU and 39% lower interval scores, without sacrificing coverage. Class-wise calibration further improves coverage for both variants with a negligible effect on sharpness. Together, these improvements yield more actionable uncertainty estimates for real-time, real-world object detection.

The deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical systems necessitates reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ). A practical and widespread strategy for UQ is repurposing stochastic regularizers as scalable approximate Bayesian inference methods, such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and MC-DropBlock (MCDB). However, this paradigm remains under-explored for Stochastic Depth (SD), a regularizer integral to the residual-based backbones of most modern architectures. While prior work demonstrated its empirical promise for segmentation, a formal theoretical connection to Bayesian variational inference and a benchmark on complex, multi-task problems like object detection are missing. In this paper, we first provide theoretical insights connecting Monte Carlo Stochastic Depth (MCSD) to principled approximate variational inference. We then present the first comprehensive empirical benchmark of MCSD against MCD and MCDB on state-of-the-art detectors (YOLO, RT-DETR) using the COCO and COCO-O datasets. Our results position MCSD as a robust and computationally efficient method that achieves highly competitive predictive accuracy (mAP), notably yielding slight improvements in calibration (ECE) and uncertainty ranking (AUARC) compared to MCD. We thus establish MCSD as a theoretically-grounded and empirically-validated tool for efficient Bayesian approximation in modern deep learning.

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty, failing to capture the equally important spatial uncertainty. This results in an incomplete assessment of the detection reliability. On the other hand, Deep Ensembles can tackle this by providing high-quality spatial uncertainty estimates. However, their immense memory consumption makes them impractical for real-world applications. A cheaper alternative, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, suffers from high latency due to the need of multiple forward passes during inference to estimate uncertainty. To address these limitations, we introduce GroupEnsemble, an efficient and effective uncertainty estimation method for DETR-like models. GroupEnsemble simultaneously predicts multiple individual detection sets by feeding additional diverse groups of object queries to the transformer decoder during inference. Each query group is transformed by the shared decoder in isolation and predicts a complete detection set for the same input. An attention mask is applied to the decoder to prevent inter-group query interactions, ensuring each group detects independently to achieve reliable ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. By leveraging the decoder's inherent parallelism, GroupEnsemble efficiently estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass without sequential repetition. We validated our method under autonomous driving scenes and common daily scenes using the Cityscapes and COCO datasets, respectively. The results show that a hybrid approach combining MC-Dropout and GroupEnsemble outperforms Deep Ensembles on several metrics at a fraction of the cost. The code is available at https://github.com/yutongy98/GroupEnsemble.