Wildfire Spread

Wildfire spread is traditionally predicted using physics-based simulators, which are physically interpretable but whose cost increases with each additional ensemble member. We ask how well deep learning surrogates can reproduce these simulations at a fraction of this cost, training them on 10,584 fire spread simulations at 2m resolution for the Rectoret region in Catalonia, Spain. Four architectures are compared: a patch-based U-Net, a transfer-learned ResNet-50, a physics-informed network constrained by the wind-driven advection equation and a Swin-Unet transformer. Among the terrain and vegetation variables, only surface fuel load predicts burn probability with any strength (r = 0.27) and including it lowers prediction error by 21%. The remaining variables correlate weakly and are highly duplicative. Next, an experiment with saliency, occlusion and rotation demonstrates the models' learning. Convolutional models rely primarily on distance from the current fire front, while Swin-Unet assigns more weight to fuel and terrain, a finding also noted in an unrelated wildfire dataset. When applied without retraining to the second region, Pedriza, all three convolutional models still predict fire spread, losing accuracy by a small but systematic margin.

Satellite mega-constellations are emerging as large-scale sensing, communication, and computation fabrics, yet their learning architectures remain largely inherited from terrestrial federated learning and ground-centric mission operations--- ill-suited to satellites that differ by orders of magnitude in Size, Weight, Power, and Cost (SWAP-C), radiation tolerance, link availability, and propagation delay. We propose a heterogeneous federated learning method based on the FractalNet architecture for orbital edge intelligence. We formalize contact-window-constrained, depth-heterogeneous federated optimization and introduce a distributed path scheduler that assigns model depth as a function of SWAP-C constraints, predicted inter-satellite contacts, and training statistics. To reduce message overhead and energy consumption, each tier pools updates periodically rather than at every contact opportunity, and a three-tier agentic control plane governs in-space scheduling, anomaly escalation, and policy-governed autonomy. As a case study, we apply the framework to wildfire detection, where each orbital shell naturally learns a different semantic level of situational awareness: pixel-scale thermal anomalies at low Earth orbit (LEO), regional fire-front dynamics at medium Earth orbit (MEO), and larger-scale risk propagation at geostationary or high Earth orbit (GEO/HEO). Experiments on simulated mega-constellations validate the approach across convergence, communication efficiency, energy adaptation, scheduled-pooling savings, robustness, and latency.

The development of vision-based wildfire detection systems for unmanned aerial vehicles is constrained by the limited availability of diverse real-world training images. This paper investigates the impact of dataset composition on embedded real-time UAV wildfire detection using compact YOLO models as a controlled validation family. Four training configurations were evaluated: real non-augmented, real augmented, hybrid non-augmented, and hybrid augmented, where the hybrid sets combine real wildfire images with AI-generated samples. The objective is to determine whether synthetic data mixing and image augmentation improve practical detection performance under resource-constrained deployment conditions. Experimental results show that the best overall operating point was obtained with the real non-augmented dataset, which achieved the strongest balance between recall and mean average precision for UAV-based wildfire detection. The results also show that neither hybridization with synthetic data nor augmentation produced a better final deployment choice. These findings suggest that, for embedded UAV wildfire detection, dataset realism and domain alignment are more valuable than increasing training set size through synthetic expansion.

Accurate 3D terrain maps are essential for emergency response when assessing wildfire hazards. However, wildfire-prone regions often span vast areas where conventional reconstruction methods underperform. Airborne LiDAR systems provide high-resolution terrain data, but they are expensive and infrequently updated. Image-based methods offer a lower-cost alternative, but struggle due to sparse visual features and limited image overlap. We propose a multi-modal reconstruction framework leveraging outdated Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) as geometric priors for image-based 3D reconstruction. Our key innovation is physics-based pixel-pixel alignment between images and DEM data, dramatically reducing computational complexity by eliminating expensive feature matching procedures. To validate our approach, we developed a large-terrain simulator based on a real wildfire-prone area, generating realistic images enabling a comprehensive evaluation. Given posed images and legacy DEMs, our method produces high-fidelity depth maps while maintaining real-time performance. We find significant improvements in reconstruction accuracy and computational efficiency over existing techniques, offering a scalable solution for wildfire response.

We describe the 2026 Methods for Open Agent Systems Evaluation Initiative (MOASEI) Competition, a benchmark event for evaluating multi-agent decision-making under open-system conditions. Building on the inaugural 2025 competition, the 2026 edition retained wildfire fighting, cybersecurity, and ride-sharing domains while adding a bonus wildfire track with frame openness, in which agent equipment states such as suppressant capacities and firefighting range vary over time. The competition also expanded its reporting metrics to emphasize total task completions, mean task-completion time, and mean value of completed tasks. Participation in 2026 was limited: eight teams registered, but only one team submitted a final entry, and that entry targeted the ride-sharing track. The submitted DLC approach used planning and replanning to solve routing problems across agents as passengers appeared. This report summarizes the 2026 competition design, highlights differences from the previous year, and reports ride-sharing evaluation results against baseline policies. DLC is recognized as the 2026 ride-sharing track winner among submitted teams.

Virtual training environments are software-intensive systems in which reinforcement learning (RL) agents learn, adapt, and demonstrate meaningful behavior. Virtual training environments offer a safe and cost-efficient alternative to training agents in real-world settings. However, to converge, most realistic RL problems require training in multiple, mostly similar but slightly different environments - i.e., families of environment variants. The typical development process of environment families is a labor-intensive and error-prone manual endeavor that does not scale well. To alleviate these issues, in this paper, we propose a model-driven approach for developing families of RL training environments. To obtain the family of environments, we develop an approach and prototype tool. In our approach, a hybrid genetic algorithm - a combination of population-based global search and heuristic local search - generates environment families. Mutations and constraints are expressed as model transformations and are operationalized into a search process by a state-of-the-art model transformation engine. We demonstrate the soundness of our approach in a wildfire mitigation scenario and curriculum learning - a particular learning paradigm that relies on environment families.

Remote sensing is increasingly relied upon to deliver actionable science for forest and wildfire risk management across large landscapes. Wall-to-wall, annually updated maps are a persistent need for effective forest management. Many planning systems and data collections combine disparate data sources with different purposes, vintages, and prediction quality, which leads to confounding behavior in operational planning systems. We introduce the VibrantForests framework, developed and applied to map forest attributes and provide a coherent foundation for effective forest and wildfire planning. VibrantForests includes a satellite-based forest structure model trained on lidar-derived samples and applied across the contiguous United States to concurrently generate estimates of canopy cover, canopy height, aboveground live tree biomass, basal area, and quadratic mean diameter at 10-meter resolution. We demonstrate predictive capability spanning the full spectrum of forest conditions ranging from sparse-canopy/low-biomass to dense-canopy/high-biomass. Results show that our model extends the range at which saturation is commonly encountered in comparable passive-sensor models, and reduces regression-to-mean behavior that commonly produces overestimation of forest attributes in small/sparse conditions and underestimation in large/dense conditions. The VibrantForests framework addresses a key limitation in large-area forest and wildfire planning by delivering coherent wall-to-wall estimates of management-relevant attributes at annual cadence and 10m resolution.

Traditional wildfire models rely on rigid, low-dimensional parameters and static fuel maps, frequently underpredicting fire spread. To address this weakness, we introduce a hybrid deep-learning parameterized Probabilistic Cellular Automata (CA) framework implemented in JAX. Our approach employs a Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Network to dynamically generate spatially varying parameters that govern fire-spread probability, wind alignment, and slope influence. This hybrid design captures complex, nonlinear environmental interactions while preserving the physical interpretability of the underlying three-state CA. The JAX implementation enables hardware acceleration and gradient-based parameter calibration. Evaluated on six large-scale wildfires in the western United States, the model maintains IoU > 0.6 over 72-hour forecast horizons after a 10-day data assimilation window during which the model is fitted incrementally to observed perimeters; the resulting forecast is a conditional projection of fire growth under the suppression regime already ncoded in those observations.

Wildfire detection and monitoring are critical for mitigating fire spread and reducing environmental and infrastructural damage. In this work, we introduce GWFP (Global Wildfire Prevention Dataset), a large-scale, open-source dataset of wildfire images and videos designed to support early fire and smoke detection research. GWFP contains geographically diverse wildfire scenes, including flames, smoke, Waterdog/Fog environmental conditions, Near Infrared (NIR) imagery, Ember, and challenging negative samples collected from real-world scenarios worldwide. To evaluate dataset robustness and cross-domain generalization, we benchmark multiple convolutional and transformer-based architectures across both in-domain and cross-dataset settings. Additionally, we explore lightweight frequency--spatial feature interaction using Hadamard-enhanced residual connections (HTE-ResNet) to analyze representation robustness under domain-shift conditions. Experimental results demonstrate strong cross-dataset generalization and practical utility for real-world wildfire monitoring applications. The dataset and source code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

Intense wildfire seasons require critical prioritization decisions to allocate scarce suppression resources over a dispersed geographical area. This paper develops a predictive and prescriptive approach to jointly optimize crew assignments and wildfire suppression. The problem features a discrete resource-allocation structure with endogenous wildfire demand and non-linear wildfire dynamics. We formulate an integer optimization model with crew assignments on a time-space-rest network, wildfire dynamics on a time-state network, and linking constraints between them. We develop a two-sided branch-and-price-and-cut algorithm based on: (i) a two-sided column generation scheme that generates fire suppression plans and crew routes iteratively; (ii) a new family of cuts exploiting the knapsack structure of the linking constraints; and (iii) novel branching rules to accommodate non-linear wildfire dynamics. We also propose a data-driven double machine learning approach to estimate wildfire spread as a function of covariate information and suppression efforts, mitigating observed confounding between historical crew assignments and wildfire growth. Extensive computational experiments show that the optimization algorithm scales to otherwise intractable real-world instances; and that the methodology can enhance suppression effectiveness in practice, resulting in significant reductions in area burned over a wildfire season and guiding resource sharing across wildfire jurisdictions.

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Wildfire monitoring requires timely, actionable situational awareness from airborne platforms, yet existing aerial visual question answering (VQA) benchmarks do not evaluate wildfire-specific multimodal reasoning grounded in thermal measurements. We introduce WildFireVQA, a large-scale VQA benchmark for aerial wildfire monitoring that integrates RGB imagery with radiometric thermal data. WildFireVQA contains 6,097 RGB-thermal samples, where each sample includes an RGB image, a color-mapped thermal visualization, and a radiometric thermal TIFF, and is paired with 34 questions, yielding a total of 207,298 multiple-choice questions spanning presence and detection, classification, distribution and segmentation, localization and direction, cross-modal reasoning, and flight planning for operational wildfire intelligence. To improve annotation reliability, we combine multimodal large language model (MLLM)-based answer generation with sensor-driven deterministic labeling, manual verification, and intra-frame and inter-frame consistency checks. We further establish a comprehensive evaluation protocol for representative MLLMs under RGB, Thermal, and retrieval-augmented settings using radiometric thermal statistics. Experiments show that across task categories, RGB remains the strongest modality for current models, while retrieved thermal context yields gains for stronger MLLMs, highlighting both the value of temperature-grounded reasoning and the limitations of existing MLLMs in safety-critical wildfire scenarios. The dataset and benchmark code are open-source at https://github.com/mobiiin/WildFire_VQA.

To mitigate acute wildfire ignition risks, utilities de-energize power lines in high-risk areas. The Optimal Power Shutoff (OPS) problem optimizes line energization statuses to manage wildfire ignition risks through de-energizations while reducing load shedding. OPS problems are computationally challenging Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs) that must be solved rapidly and frequently in operational settings. For a particular power system, OPS instances share a common structure with varying parameters related to wildfire risks, loads, and renewable generation. This motivates the use of Machine Learning (ML) for solving OPS problems by exploiting shared patterns across instances. In this paper, we develop an ML-guided framework that quickly produces high-quality de-energization decisions by extending existing ML-guided MILP solution methods while integrating domain knowledge on the number of energized and de-energized lines. Results on a large-scale realistic California-based synthetic test system show that the proposed ML-guided method produces high-quality solutions faster than traditional optimization methods.

The increasing accessibility of radiometric thermal imaging sensors for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offers significant potential for advancing AI-driven aerial wildfire management. Radiometric imaging provides per-pixel temperature estimates, a valuable improvement over non-radiometric data that requires irradiance measurements to be converted into visible images using RGB color palettes. Despite its benefits, this technology has been underutilized largely due to a lack of available data for researchers. This study addresses this gap by introducing methods for collecting and processing synchronized visual spectrum and radiometric thermal imagery using UAVs at prescribed fires. The included imagery processing pipeline drastically simplifies and partially automates each step from data collection to neural network input. Further, we present the FLAME 3 dataset, the first comprehensive collection of side-by-side visual spectrum and radiometric thermal imagery of wildland fires. Building on our previous FLAME 1 and FLAME 2 datasets, FLAME 3 includes radiometric thermal Tag Image File Format (TIFFs) and nadir thermal plots, providing a new data type and collection method. This dataset aims to spur a new generation of machine learning models utilizing radiometric thermal imagery, potentially trivializing tasks such as aerial wildfire detection, segmentation, and assessment. A single-burn subset of FLAME 3 for computer vision applications is available on Kaggle with the full 6 burn set available to readers upon request.